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At least 37 records · Page 2

Automated dynamic analytical model improvement for damped structures

A method is described to improve a linear nonproportionally damped analytical model of a structure. The procedure finds the smallest changes in the analytical model such that the improved model matches the measured modal parameters. Features of the method are: (1) ability to properly treat complex valued modal parameters of a damped system; (2) applicability to realistically large structural models; and (3) computationally efficiency without involving eigensolutions and inversion of a large matrix.

Fuh, J. S.↗

Summary of analytical model improvement method and related technology

The research project which resulted in the AMI (Analytical Model Improvement) method was funded by the Langley Research Center from 1979 through 1985. The objective was to develop a method for obtaining improved dynamic models of structures by using both test data and numerical analysis. The research was successfully performed and the method was applied to a real structure having a realistic NASTRAN model with over 500 degrees of freedom. The method and its application are briefly discussed as well as other indirect benefits in related technical areas.

Berman, Alex↗

Direct numerical simulations of three-component Rayleigh–Taylor mixing and an improved model for multicomponent reacting mixtures

We present direct numerical simulations of a three-layer Rayleigh–Taylor instability (RTI) problem with a configuration based on the experiments of Suchandra & Ranjan ( J. Fluid Mech. , vol. 974, 2023, A35) and Jacobs & Dalziel ( J. Fluid Mech. , vol. 542, 2005, pp. 251–279). The problem consists of a layer of light fluid between two layers of heavy fluid with an Atwood number of 0.3. These simulations are first validated through comparison with available experimental data. The validated simulations are then utilized to analyse statistics in this three-component flow. First, length scales are examined utilizing spectra and two-point spatial correlations of velocity and species concentration fluctuations. Next, joint probability density functions (p.d.f.s) of species concentration are compared against several model p.d.f.s representing generalizations of the bivariate beta distribution. Notably, the joint p.d.f.s do not appear to be accurately described by a Dirichlet distribution, indicating the marginal distributions do not conform to a beta distribution. Finally, similarity of the present configuration to three-component mixing found in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) applications is exploited to develop and validate an improved model for the impact of multicomponent mixing on thermonuclear (TN) reaction rates. A single time instant from the present simulations is chosen for a TN burn calculation under the hypothetical assumption of ICF materials and temperatures. Total TN output from this second calculation is then compared against the prediction of the improved model. The new model is found to accurately predict TN reaction rates in both premixed and non-premixed configurations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A process improvement model for software verification and validation

We describe ongoing work at the NASA Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Facility to establish a process improvement model for software verification and validation (V&V) organizations. This model, similar to those used by some software development organizations, uses measurement-based techniques to identify problem areas and introduce incremental improvements. We seek to replicate this model for organizations involved in V&V on large-scale software development projects such as EOS and Space Station. At the IV&V Facility, a university research group and V&V contractors are working together to collect metrics across projects in order to determine the effectiveness of V&V and improve its application. Since V&V processes are intimately tied to development processes, this paper also examines the repercussions for development organizations in large-scale efforts.

Callahan, John↗

A process improvement model for software verification and validation

We describe ongoing work at the NASA Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Facility to establish a process improvement model for software verification and validation (V&V) organizations. This model, similar to those used by some software development organizations, uses measurement-based techniques to identify problem areas and introduce incremental improvements. We seek to replicate this model for organizations involved in V&V on large-scale software development projects such as EOS and space station. At the IV&V Facility, a university research group and V&V contractors are working together to collect metrics across projects in order to determine the effectiveness of V&V and improve its application. Since V&V processes are intimately tied to development processes, this paper also examines the repercussions for development organizations in large-scale efforts.

Callahan, John↗

Understanding Land-Atmosphere Interactions in Agricultural Areas through Improved Modeling and Monitoring of Irrigation

Irrigation increases soil moisture and evapotranspiration, often leading to cooler and more humid conditions over and downwind of irrigated areas. These changes can affect the evolution of the planetary boundary layer and ultimately influence the development of clouds and precipitation. It is for this reason that there has been a push to include irrigation processes in weather and climate models. This presentation will discuss recent efforts to model irrigation impacts in NASA’s land surface and coupled models, via both improved parameterizations and the incorporation of satellite data from platforms such as SMAP, MODIS, and ECOSTRESS. This work underscores the need to consider human water management impacts when analyzing or predicting components of the water and energy cycles, and the critical roles that NASA observations and models play in this assessment.

Patricia Lawston Parker↗

Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape

Arctic warming is altering vegetation and carbon dynamics with global implications, yet Earth System Model (ESM) predictions in the Arctic remain highly uncertain, in part due to historically limited data for model parameterization and validation. As such, ESMs typically represent Arctic ecosystems in an oversimplified manner. Recently, nine plant functional types (PFTs) designed to realistically represent tundra vegetation were integrated into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) and parameterized using plot-scale observations from a single site. Additional evaluation was needed to determine their transferability across the Arctic. Here, in this study, we evaluated whether refined representation of tundra vegetation improved model accuracy by conducting spatially explicit 100 × 100 m resolution ELM simulations on Alaska's Seward Peninsula. Simulations with the default two-PFT configuration and with the nine Arctic-specific PFTs were benchmarked against observations of net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production, and aboveground biomass from multiple data streams including an eddy covariance flux tower, flux chambers, and aircraft and unoccupied aerial system hyperspectral remote sensing. Evaluation revealed that Arctic-specific PFT simulations produced more realistic landscape-level carbon exchanges, and better captured observed heterogeneity in biomass and productivity, explaining 60%–70% of spatial variance (R 2 = 0.6–0.7) compared to just 12%–18% (R 2 = 0.12–0.18) with the default configuration. However, the refined model failed to reproduce observed aboveground biomass for highly productive alder-willow communities, requiring further evaluation of carbon allocation parameterizations for tall shrubs that are increasingly expanding across tundra landscapes. Our results demonstrate that enhanced representation of vegetation heterogeneity boosts predictive understanding of tundra carbon dynamics, facilitating regional to pan-Arctic model and remote-sensing scaling.

Murphy, Bailey A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗

Integrating NDVI-Based Within-Wetland Vegetation Classification in a Land Surface Model Improves Methane Emission Estimations

Earth system models (ESMs) are a common tool for estimating local and global greenhouse gas emissions under current and projected future conditions. Efforts are underway to expand the representation of wetlands in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) by resolving the simultaneous contributions to greenhouse gas fluxes from multiple, different, sub-grid-scale patch-types, representing different eco-hydrological patches within a wetland. However, for this effort to be effective, it should be coupled with the detection and mapping of within-wetland eco-hydrological patches in real-world wetlands, providing models with corresponding information about vegetation cover. In this short communication, we describe the application of a recently developed NDVI-based method for within-wetland vegetation classification on a coastal wetland in Louisiana and the use of the resulting yearly vegetation cover as input for ELM simulations. Processed Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) datasets were used to drive the sub-grid composition of simulated wetland vegetation each year, thus tracking the spatial heterogeneity of wetlands at sufficient spatial and temporal resolutions and providing necessary input for improving the estimation of methane emissions from wetlands. Our results show that including NDVI-based classification in an ELM reduced the uncertainty in predicted methane flux by decreasing the model’s RMSE when compared to Eddy Covariance measurements, while a minimal bias was introduced due to the resampling technique involved in processing HLS data. Our study shows promising results in integrating the remote sensing-based classification of within-wetland vegetation cover into earth system models, while improving their performances toward more accurate predictions of important greenhouse gas emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Flame-Vortex Interactions in Microgravity to Improve Models of Turbulent Combustion

A unique flame-vortex interaction experiment is being operated in microgravity in order to obtain fundamental data to assess the Theory of Flame Stretch which will be used to improve models of turbulent combustion. The experiment provides visual images of the physical process by which an individual eddy in a turbulent flow increases the flame surface area, changes the local flame propagation speed, and can extinguish the reaction. The high quality microgravity images provide benchmark data that are free from buoyancy effects. Results are used to assess Direct Numerical Simulations of Dr. K. Kailasanath at NRL, which were run for the same conditions.

Driscoll, James F.↗

Inferring Plant Acclimation and Improving Model Generalizability With Differentiable Physics‐Informed Machine Learning of Photosynthesis

Net photosynthesis (A N ) is a key component of the global carbon cycle influencing climate feedback over decadal scales. Although plant acclimation to environmental changes can modify A N , traditional vegetation models in Earth system models (ESMs) often rely on plant functional type (PFT)-specific parameterizations or simplified acclimation assumptions limiting generalizability across time, space, and PFTs. In this study, we developed a differentiable photosynthesis model to learn the environmental dependencies of V c,max25 (maximum carboxylation rate at 25°C, representing photosynthetic capacity), as this genre of hybrid physics-informed machine learning can seamlessly train neural networks and process-based equations together. Compared to PFT-specific parameterization of V c,max25 , learning the environment dependencies of key photosynthetic parameters improved model spatiotemporal generalizability. Applying environmental acclimation to V c,max25 led to substantial variations in global mean A N indicating the need to address acclimation in ESMs. The model effectively captured multivariate observations (V c,max25 , A N , and stomatal conductance (g s )) simultaneously with multivariate constraints, improving generalization across space and PFTs. It also learned sensible acclimation relationships of V c,max25 to different environmental conditions. The model explained more than 54%, 57%, and 62% of the variance of A N , g s , and V c,max25 , respectively, presenting a first global-scale spatial test benchmark of A N and g s . These results highlight the potential for differentiable modeling to enhance process-based modules in ESMs and effectively leverage information from large, multivariate data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Representations and strategies for transferable machine learning improve model performance in chemical discovery

Strategies for machine-learning (ML)-accelerated discovery that are general across material composition spaces are essential, but demonstrations of ML have been primarily limited to narrow composition variations. By addressing the scarcity of data in promising regions of chemical space for challenging targets such as open-shell transition-metal complexes, general representations and transferable ML models that leverage known relationships in existing data will accelerate discovery. Over a large set (~1000) of isovalent transition-metal complexes, we quantify evident relationships for different properties (i.e., spin-splitting and ligand dissociation) between rows of the Periodic Table (i.e., 3d/4d metals and 2p/3p ligands). We demonstrate an extension to the graph-based revised autocorrelation (RAC) representation (i.e., eRAC) that incorporates the group number alongside the nuclear charge heuristic that otherwise overestimates dissimilarity of isovalent complexes. To address the common challenge of discovery in a new space where data are limited, we introduce a transfer learning approach in which we seed models trained on a large amount of data from one row of the Periodic Table with a small number of data points from the additional row. We demonstrate the synergistic value of the eRACs alongside this transfer learning strategy to consistently improve model performance. Analysis of these models highlights how the approach succeeds by reordering the distances between complexes to be more consistent with the Periodic Table, a property we expect to be broadly useful for other material domains.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Improved modeling of the solid-to-plasma transition of polystyrene ablator for laser direct-drive inertial confinement fusion hydrocodes

We report that the target performance of laser direct-drive inertial confinement fusion (ICF) can be limited by the development of hydrodynamic instabilities resulting from the nonhomegeneous laser absorption at the target surface, i.e., the laser imprint on the ablator. To understand and describe the formation of these instabilities, the early ablator evolution during the laser irradiation should be considered. In this work, an improved modeling of the solid-to-plasma transition of a polystyrene ablator for laser direct-drive ICF is proposed. This model is devoted to be implemented in hydrocodes dedicated to ICF which generally assume an initial plasma state. The present approach consists of the two-temperature model coupled to the electron, ion and neutral dynamics including the chemical fragmentation of polystyrene. The solid-to-plasma transition is shown to significantly influence the temporal evolution of both free electron density and temperatures, which can lead to different shock formation and propagation compared with an initial plasma state. The influence of the solid-to-plasma transition on the shock dynamics is evidenced by considering the scaling law of the pressure with respect to the laser intensity. The ablator transition is shown to modify the scaling law exponent compared with an initial plasma state.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration

Building energy consumption prediction plays an irreplaceable role in energy planning, management, and conservation. Constantly improving the performance of prediction models is the key to ensuring the efficient operation of energy systems. Moreover, accuracy is no longer the only factor in revealing model performance, it is more important to evaluate the model from multiple perspectives, considering the characteristics of engineering applications. Based on the idea of model integration, this paper proposes a novel improved integration model (stacking model) that can be used to forecast building energy consumption. The stacking model combines advantages of various base prediction algorithms and forms them into “meta-features” to ensure that the final model can observe datasets from different spatial and structural angles. Two cases are used to demonstrate practical engineering applications of the stacking model. A comparative analysis is performed to evaluate the prediction performance of the stacking model in contrast with existing well-known prediction models including Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine, and K-Nearest Neighbor. The results indicate that the stacking method achieves better performance than other models, regarding accuracy (improvement of 9.5%–31.6% for Case A and 16.2%–49.4% for Case B), generalization (improvement of 6.7%–29.5% for Case A and 7.1%-34.6% for Case B), and robustness (improvement of 1.5%–34.1% for Case A and 1.8%–19.3% for Case B). The proposed model enriches the diversity of algorithm libraries of empirical models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An Improved Model For Determining Salinity Recharge Time for Deep Borehole Disposal - 20405

In a previous publication (K. P. Travis, D. Burley and F. G. F. Gibb, WM2017 Conference, Phoenix Arizona paper no. 17480) we introduced a numerical model to estimate the time it would take for a pressure perturbation to subside following its creation from the construction of a deep geological borehole in water-saturated rock. The model was based on the notion of a point source of momentum - a solution of the time-dependent pressure-diffusion equation. Using the model, we estimated that it would take on the order of 10 k years for physical equilibrium to become re-established following the sinking of a 5 km borehole in granite. The significance of such a model is that it places an upper bound on the lifetime required of a borehole sealing system - a necessary input to a borehole post-closure safety case assessment. No engineered sealing system has ever been devised which is capable of retaining its sealing properties for 10 half-lives of long-lived radioisotopes in spent fuel or high-level waste. One of the key advantages of disposing of nuclear waste via Deep Borehole Disposal (DBD) is the natural sealing provided by density stratified groundwater. Upon sinking of a borehole, and subsequent filling with fresh water, brine or drilling mud, this natural barrier may be temporarily damaged. Over time, fresh brine from the far-field will flow towards or away from the hole (driven by a pressure gradient) and will eventually re-establish the original salinity gradient. It follows that the engineered seals need last only as long as the time required for this salinity gradient to reset itself. One of the limitations of our previous model was the use of a static boundary condition on the borehole wall. The model used a boundary pressure which varied quadratically with depth (arising from differences between the pressure of a column of fresh water in the borehole and that of a column of brine in the host rock). However as brine replaces fresh water in the borehole (driven by a pressure gradient), the boundary function must change with time. We now introduce an improved model which takes this time dependent boundary condition into account. The model also takes into account the time taken for a mixture of brine and fresh water to re-establish chemical equilibrium through the process of diffusion. The paper contains the mathematical details of our new iterative model as well as results showing the time taken to reach steady state, and concentration profiles for the components of the brine-filled borehole as a function of time together with a discussion on the implications of the results for developing a post-closure safety assessment for DBD. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Microbially mediated nitrification improves modeled temperate forest responses to declining nitrogen deposition

As nitrogen deposition declines across the US, uncertainty remains in whether temperate forests will continue to sequester carbon. This uncertainty is amplified by ecosystem models that inaccurately capture the microbial mechanisms that drive soil carbon sequestration and nitrogen loss. Further, even soil process models that represent decomposer microbes and better capture soil carbon retention under nitrogen deposition broadly underrepresent microbial nitrogen transformations. To address this limitation, we leveraged three decades of biogeochemical cycling data from a whole-watershed nitrogen fertilization experiment to incorporate microbially-driven nitrification in the FUN-CORPSE (Fixation and Uptake of Nitrogen-Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere, and Protection in the Soil Environment) model. Our objectives include: 1) Reproducing key ecosystem responses to fertilization, 2) Integrating microbially-explicit nitrification in FUN-CORPSE, and 3) Assessing modeled soil C and N under projected N deposition shifts. FUN-CORPSE accurately represented soil C and streamwater N losses under ambient N deposition and captured how fertilization induced a 25 % decline in plant C cost of N acquisition, reducing decomposition and increasing soil C. Furthermore, with microbially-explicit nitrification, FUN-CORPSE captured the 100 % increase in nitrification rates and the 50 % increase in streamwater nitrate loss under N fertilization. Specifically, incorporating microbial nitrification improved modeled streamwater N leaching from R 2 = 0.01 to R 2 = 0.57. Under declining N deposition, FUN-CORPSE simulates that N losses recover more quickly than soil C pools. However, the predicted return of soil C to pre-fertilized levels suggests that additional C sequestered due to N deposition may be vulnerable to loss over the next century.

Microbial nitrification model↗

Mn-53 and Al-26 evidence for solar cosmic ray constancy - An improved model for interpretation

A general, numerical method for calculating activities of solar cosmic ray produced radionuclides at any point within an irregularly shaped lunar rock of known surface contour and lunar surface orientation is described. This method is then used to predict the activities of Mn-53 andAl-26 as a function of postion within lunar rock 68815 for various assumed values of solar cosmic ray flux (J), rigidity (R sub 0), and rock erosion rate (ER). The predicted activities agree with the measured activities of Kohl et al. (1978) when values of R sub 0 = 100 MV, J = 70 p/sq cm-sec (4 pi, E greater than 10 MeV), ER not greater than 1 mm/m.y. and a total exposure time of 2 m.y. are assumed. These values are in agreement with those found for rocks exposed for not less than 10 m.y. and provide no evidence for variation of the average solar cosmic ray parameters between the last 2 and 10 m.y. intervals. When interpreted with the improved model the activity vs. depth profiles for three faces of 68815 show no evidence of SCR anisotropy or differential erosion.

Russ, G. P., III↗

Improved Models of R Coronae Borealis Stars

We present an improved numerical method to model subsolar He+CO-WD merger progenitors of R Corona Borealis stars that builds on our previous work. These improvements include a smooth entropy transition from the core to the envelope of the post-merger, inclusion of single-zone nucleosynthesis to mimic the effects of burning during the merger event, and post-processing the models with a larger nuclear network for analysis of s-process nucleosynthesis. We perform a parameter study to understand the effects of the entropy transition, peak temperature, and overshooting on our models. The models that best agree with observations of R Corona Borealis stars are processed with a much larger nuclear network to investigate s-process nucleosynthesis and the dredge-up of s-process products into the outer envelope in detail. We present a model with a significant enhancement in s-process elements, which also agrees with observed surface abundances and isotopic ratios of 16 O/ 16 O and C/O between 1 and 10. Finally, we find that the neutron exposure and initial neutron densities this model requires to obtain such an enhancement are much more consistent with i-process nucleosynthesis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Leveraging ARM Data to Improve Models for Predictive Understanding of Energy and Security Challenges

Extreme weather and natural hazards can disrupt the energy sector, affecting demand, generation, transmission, distribution, consumption and operational planning at regional and national scales. These disruptions stem from a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, including winter storms, freezing rain, wet snow loading, severe convection, flooding and landslides, wildfires, prolonged heat, and drought. Many of these same phenomena can also affect national security through impacts to transportation and infrastructure. To support the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) focus on energy resilience and national security, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility is uniquely positioned to contribute measurement data, analyses, and modeling frameworks that can significantly improve predictive understanding of these hazards to mitigate their effects. To explore this opportunity, ARM convened a two-part virtual workshop in November 2025. The workshop engaged interdisciplinary experts in atmospheric science, energy systems, modeling, and operations. The goal of the meeting was to engage with these interdisciplinary experts to address three questions: • What are examples of atmospheric processes that represent significant risks to energy security or national security and where are those risks greatest? • What measurements or measurement strategies would improve ARM’s capacity to address these issues? • How can ARM and users of the ARM facility better work with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and multi-sector modeling communities to apply ARM data to improving E3SM simulations of these phenomena? Participants were asked to submit white papers ahead of the meeting to initiate thinking on these themes and to help organize discussions. Workshop sessions were then organized around themes identified in the white papers. First from the white papers and then through subsequent discussions, workshop participants identified many examples that address the three questions listed above. Participants called out energy system vulnerabilities to weather phenomena such as the impact of freezing rain, strong winds, and excessive heat on power grids. They also noted the effects that weather phenomena could have on energy demand or supply (e.g., through effects of extreme temperatures). They called out security vulnerabilities such as impacts to crops from aerosol-borne pathogens and risks to industry due to melting permafrost in the Arctic. In all, over a dozen meteorological phenomena were linked to energy or security vulnerabilities. For many of the identified phenomena, participants pointed out where ARM was well poised to address issues (e.g., through measurements of cloud microphysics to inform studies of freezing rain) but also noted needs for additional measurements or modified measurement strategies. For example, adaptive scanning of severe weather would be valuable for probing winter storms or severe convection. Participants pointed out the value in integrating external observations with ARM measurements and with applying artificial intelligence (AI) to ARM observation analysis and they advocated for using model simulations to help optimize measurement strategies through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). It was clear from the workshop that there are many ways that ARM observations can be used to mitigate energy and security concerns, but meeting participants were also asked to identify what they considered to be the greatest opportunities by ranking issues pertaining to the three workshop questions. This was accomplished through a survey administered to participants between the two virtual sessions. The highest-priority phenomena identified were winter storms, severe convection, and arctic processes. Discussion in the second session, therefore, focused primarily on these three areas, which were most fully developed in exploring ARM opportunities. Nevertheless, it was also clear that ARM has opportunities to contribute to all the identified topics. This report describes the workshop, including input from discussion and white papers (Sections 2 and 3) and a list of priority recommendations (section 4). Many other ideas for ARM contributions are discussed in individual white papers (Appendix D).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗