How can weather reanalyses contribute to atmospheric model parameterization development and validation?
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Witte, Mikael↗
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A Fortran-Python Interface for Integrating Machine Learning Parameterization into Earth System Models
Parameterizations in Earth System Models (ESMs) are subject to biases and uncertainties arising from subjective empirical assumptions and incomplete understanding of the underlying physical processes. Recently, the growing representational capability of machine learning (ML) in solving complex problems has spawned immense interests in climate science applications. Specifically, ML-based parameterizations have been developed to represent convection, radiation and microphysics processes in ESMs by learning from observations or high-resolution simulations, which have the potential to improve the accuracies and alleviate the uncertainties. Previous works have developed some surrogate models for these processes using ML. These surrogate models need to be coupled with the dynamical core of ESMs to investigate the effectiveness and their performance in a coupled system. In this study, we present a novel Fortran-Python interface designed to seamlessly integrate ML parameterizations into ESMs. This interface showcases high versatility by supporting popular ML frameworks like PyTorch, TensorFlow, and Scikit-learn. We demonstrate the interface's modularity and reusability through two cases: a ML trigger function for convection parameterization and a ML wildfire model. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of memory usage and computational overhead resulting from the integration of Python codes into the Fortran ESMs. By leveraging this flexible interface, ML parameterizations can be effectively developed, tested, and integrated into ESMs.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Quantifying the Relative Impact of Model Microphysics Parameterizations and Scattering Models in Simulating Synthetic Radar and Microwave Radiometer Observations
Output from numerical weather models is often used to simulate observations from remote sensing instruments, for purposes ranging from data assimilation, synthetic retrievals of geophysical quantities, and optimization of observing systems. However, when hydrometeors are present, the level of detail provided by the weather model is generally insufficient to fully constrain the input to the radiative transfer model (RTM), and further assumptions must be made by the RTM user in order to produce synthetic observations. Using a hierarchy of models including cloud-resolving, double-moment, bin microphysical, and ice-habit predicting models, along with scattering properties from the OpenSSP, Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator (ARTS) databases, as well as relatively simple geometries (e.g., cylindrical plates and columns), we demonstrate the spread in synthetic observation output and the extent to which it is reduced when microphysics is more strongly constrained by the model. As an intermediate step, an error budget for the RTM simulations was derived and from that we developed and will describe best practices for observation simulation (e.g., optimal number of hydrometeor size bins, truncation of the particle size distribution, angular resolution of scattering phase function). Some statistical comparisons with observations will also be presented.
Munchak, S. Joseph↗
Improving Lightning NO(x) Parameterizations for Global Chemical Transport Models
Parameterization of lightning NO(x) in global chemical transport models requires a method to specify the temporal and geographic distribution of flash rates, an estimate of NO production per flash, and a method to specify the effective vertical distribution of NO production. Flash rate parameterizations using the upward convective cloud mass flux have been developed and tested for several GCM and assimilated meteorological data sets. This parameterization and others involving the cloud-top height and convective precipitation provide a generally acceptable climatological distribution of flashes after normalization with satellite data. However, considerable improvement in terms of geographic and temporal variability may be achieved in the future using cloud microphysics data available from next-generation GCMs. Cloud-resolving case-study simulations of convective transport and lightning NO production have yielded results which are directly applicable to the NO production per flash and the vertical NO distribution portions of the global model lightning parameterizations. In this work we have used cloud-resolving models (the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCE) and MM5) to drive an off-line cloud-scale chemical transport model (CSCTM). The CSCTM, in conjunction with aircraft measurements of NO(x) in thunderstorms and ground-based lightning observations, has been used to constrain the amount of NO produced per flash. Observed lightning flash rates have been incorporated into the CSCTM, and several scenarios of NO production per intracloud (IC) and per cloud-to-ground (CG) flash have been tested in each of several case study storms. The resulting NO(x) mixing ratios are compared with aircraft measurements taken within the storm (typically the anvil region) to determine the most likely NO production scenario. The range of values of NO production per flash (or per meter of lightning channel length) that have been deduced from the model will be shown and compared with values of production in the literature that have been deduced from observed NO spikes and from anvil flux calculations. Results show that on a per flash basis, IC flashes are nearly as productive of NO as CG flashes. Estimates of mean NO production per flash vary by a factor of three from one simulated storm to another. Vertical profiles of lightning NOx mass at the end of the 3-D storm simulations have been summarized to yield suggested profiles for use in global models. These profiles show a larger percentage of the total lightning NO(x) mass in the free troposphere than those suggested by Pickering et al. (1998).
Pickering, Kenneth E.↗
Assessing the Intrinsic Uncertainty and Structural Stability of Planetary Models: 1. Parameterized Thermal‐Tectonic History Models
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Johnny Seales↗
Boundary Layer Data Assimilation and Interaction with Parameterizations in the NASA GEOS Model
The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office develops the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), which assimilates a wide range of observations to support medium range and seasonal forecasts and production of reanalyses like MERRA-2. In this talk we report on recent efforts to assimilate boundary layer (PBL) height observations derived from radiosondes, GNSS radio occultation, space-based lidar (CALIPSO, CATS, IceSat-2) and ground-based lidar (MPLNET). A novel component of this project includes examining the influence of model parameterizations on PBL profile estimates. We will discuss physics-based parameterizations of the PBL and how they may benefit or distort representation of PBL profiles in data assimilation. In particular, we consider the tendency of PBL parameterizations to compensate for analysis updates of state variables, effectively reducing the information retained from observations. We will present efforts to reduce this compensation in GEOS by using the PBL height analysis to adjust length scales used in the model PBL parameterizations.
Nathan Arnold↗
Boundary Layer Data Assimilation and Interaction with Parameterizations in the NASA GEOS Model
The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office develops the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), which assimilates a wide range of observations to support medium range and seasonal forecasts and production of reanalyses like MERRA-2. In this talk we report on recent efforts to assimilate boundary layer (PBL) height observations derived from radiosondes, GNSS radio occultation, space-based lidar (CALIPSO, CATS, IceSat-2) and ground-based lidar (MPLNET). A novel component of this project includes examining the influence of model parameterizations on PBL profile estimates. We will discuss physics-based parameterizations of the PBL and how they may benefit or distort representation of PBL profiles in data assimilation. In particular, we consider the tendency of PBL parameterizations to compensate for analysis updates of state variables, effectively reducing the information retained from observations. We will present efforts to reduce this compensation in GEOS by using the PBL height analysis to adjust length scales used in the model PBL parameterizations.
Nathan P. Arnold↗
Parameterization of Model Validating Sets for Uncertainty Bound Optimizations
Given experimental data and a priori assumptions on nominal model and a linear fractional transformation uncertainty structure, feasible conditions for model validation is given. All unknown but bounded exogenous inputs are assumed to occur at the plant outputs. With the satisfaction of the feasible conditions for model validation, it is shown that a parameterization of all model validating sets of plant models is possible. The new parameterization can be used as a basis for the development of a systematic way to construct model validating uncertainty models which have specific linear fractional transformation structure for use in robust control design and analysis. The proposed feasible condition (existence) test and the parameterization is computationally attractive as compared to similar tests currently available.
Lim, K. B.↗
A Kinetic Model of the Long-Term Corrosion of Glass-Ceramic Materials
Multiphase waste forms show promise for increased waste loading and for the ability to dispose of contaminated solid and particulate waste through direct densification. However, achieving predictive capability for long-term durability of multiphase waste forms, and thus assessing their possible deployment, requires expanding the current, limited knowledge base. Here, we describe the development of a corrosion model of a two-phase waste form consisting of crystals of known volume fraction embedded in a glass matrix. This model accounts for the dissolution of both the crystalline and glass phases as well as the hydration of the glass phase through an ion exchange reaction. Because of the large difference in solubility between the two phases, the reactive surface of the crystalline phase is a function of the extent of dissolution of the glass phase in this model. Model parameterization was performed using corrosion data, such as from single-pass flow-through tests, for the individual phases. The parameterized corrosion model was evaluated against static dissolution test data for a glass-ceramic multiphase waste form. This evaluation demonstrated the model’s ability to reproduce the time-dependent release of key tracers of glass and crystalline phase dissolution. Hence, the development of a kinetic model provides a pathway for long-term durability predictions and thus the use of multiphase waste forms in nuclear cleanup missions.
Kerisit, Sebastien N.↗
GLACE: The Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment Part 2: Analysis
The twelve weather and climate models participating in the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE) show both a wide variation in the strength of land-atmosphere coupling and some intriguing commonalities. In this paper, we address the causes of variations in coupling strength - both the geographic variations within a given model and the model-to-model differences. The ability of soil moisture to affect precipitation is examined in two stages, namely, the ability of the soil moisture to affect evaporation, and the ability of evaporation to affect precipitation. Most of the differences between the models and within a given model are found to be associated with the first stage - an evaporation rate that varies strongly and consistently with soil moisture tends to lead to a higher coupling strength. The first stage differences reflect identifiable differences in model parameterization and model climate. Intermodel differences in the evaporation-precipitation connection, however, also play a key role.
Guo, Zhichang↗
A dual-loop model of the human controller in single-axis tracking tasks
A dual loop model of the human controller in single axis compensatory tracking tasks is introduced. This model possesses an inner-loop closure which involves feeding back that portion of the controlled element output rate which is due to control activity. The sensory inputs to the human controller are assumed to be system error and control force. The former is assumed to be sensed via visual, aural, or tactile displays while the latter is assumed to be sensed in kinesthetic fashion. A nonlinear form of the model is briefly discussed. This model is then linearized and parameterized. A set of general adaptive characteristics for the parameterized model is hypothesized. These characteristics describe the manner in which the parameters in the linearized model will vary with such things as display quality. It is demonstrated that the parameterized model can produce controller describing functions which closely approximate those measured in laboratory tracking tasks for a wide variety of controlled elements.
Hess, R. A.↗
A Fortran–Python interface for integrating machine learning parameterization into earth system models
Abstract. Parameterizations in earth system models (ESMs) are subject to biases and uncertainties arising from subjective empirical assumptions and incomplete understanding of the underlying physical processes. Recently, the growing representational capability of machine learning (ML) in solving complex problems has spawned immense interests in climate science applications. Specifically, ML-based parameterizations have been developed to represent convection, radiation, and microphysics processes in ESMs by learning from observations or high-resolution simulations, which have the potential to improve the accuracies and alleviate the uncertainties. Previous works have developed some surrogate models for these processes using ML. These surrogate models need to be coupled with the dynamical core of ESMs to investigate the effectiveness and their performance in a coupled system. In this study, we present a novel Fortran–Python interface designed to seamlessly integrate ML parameterizations into ESMs. This interface showcases high versatility by supporting popular ML frameworks like PyTorch, TensorFlow, and scikit-learn. We demonstrate the interface's modularity and reusability through two cases: an ML trigger function for convection parameterization and an ML wildfire model. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of memory usage and computational overhead resulting from the integration of Python codes into the Fortran ESMs. By leveraging this flexible interface, ML parameterizations can be effectively developed, tested, and integrated into ESMs.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Lidar observations of mixed layer dynamics - Tests of parameterized entrainment models of mixed layer growth rate
Ground based lidar measurements of the atmospheric mixed layer depth, the entrainment zone depth and the wind speed and wind direction were used to test various parameterized entrainment models of mixed layer growth rate. Six case studies under clear air convective conditions over flat terrain in central Illinois are presented. It is shown that surface heating alone accounts for a major portion of the rise of the mixed layer on all days. A new set of entrainment model constants was determined which optimized height predictions for the dataset. Under convective conditions, the shape of the mixed layer height prediction curves closely resembled the observed shapes. Under conditions when significant wind shear was present, the shape of the height prediction curve departed from the data suggesting deficiencies in the parameterization of shear production. Development of small cumulus clouds on top of the layer is shown to affect mixed layer depths in the afternoon growth phase.
Boers, R.↗
Parameterized Linear Longitudinal Airship Model
A parameterized linear mathematical model of the longitudinal dynamics of an airship is undergoing development. This model is intended to be used in designing control systems for future airships that would operate in the atmospheres of Earth and remote planets. Heretofore, the development of linearized models of the longitudinal dynamics of airships has been costly in that it has been necessary to perform extensive flight testing and to use system-identification techniques to construct models that fit the flight-test data. The present model is a generic one that can be relatively easily specialized to approximate the dynamics of specific airships at specific operating points, without need for further system identification, and with significantly less flight testing. The approach taken in the present development is to merge the linearized dynamical equations of an airship with techniques for estimation of aircraft stability derivatives, and to thereby make it possible to construct a linearized dynamical model of the longitudinal dynamics of a specific airship from geometric and aerodynamic data pertaining to that airship. (It is also planned to develop a model of the lateral dynamics by use of the same methods.) All of the aerodynamic data needed to construct the model of a specific airship can be obtained from wind-tunnel testing and computational fluid dynamics
Kulczycki, Eric↗
Parameterization of Model Validating Sets for Uncertainty Bound Optimizations
Given measurement data, a nominal model and a linear fractional transformation uncertainty structure with an allowance on unknown but bounded exogenous disturbances, easily computable tests for the existence of a model validating uncertainty set are given. Under mild conditions, these tests are necessary and sufficient for the case of complex, nonrepeated, block-diagonal structure. For the more general case which includes repeated and/or real scalar uncertainties, the tests are only necessary but become sufficient if a collinearity condition is also satisfied. With the satisfaction of these tests, it is shown that a parameterization of all model validating sets of plant models is possible. The new parameterization is used as a basis for a systematic way to construct or perform uncertainty tradeoff with model validating uncertainty sets which have specific linear fractional transformation structure for use in robust control design and analysis. An illustrative example which includes a comparison of candidate model validating sets is given.
Lim, K. B.↗
Modeling and parameterization of horizontally inhomogeneous cloud radiative properties
One of the fundamental difficulties in modeling cloud fields is the large variability of cloud optical properties (liquid water content, reflectance, emissivity). The stratocumulus and cirrus clouds, under special consideration for FIRE, exhibit spatial variability on scales of 1 km or less. While it is impractical to model individual cloud elements, the research direction is to model a statistical ensembles of cloud elements with mean-cloud properties specified. The major areas of this investigation are: (1) analysis of cloud field properties; (2) intercomparison of cloud radiative model results with satellite observations; (3) radiative parameterization of cloud fields; and (4) development of improved cloud classification algorithms.
Welch, R. M.↗
Estimating the Properties of Hard X-Ray Solar Flares by Constraining Model Parameters
We wish to better constrain the properties of solar flares by exploring how parameterized models of solar flares interact with uncertainty estimation methods. We compare four different methods of calculating uncertainty estimates in fitting parameterized models to Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager X-ray spectra, considering only statistical sources of error. Three of the four methods are based on estimating the scale-size of the minimum in a hypersurface formed by the weighted sum of the squares of the differences between the model fit and the data as a function of the fit parameters, and are implemented as commonly practiced. The fourth method is also based on the difference between the data and the model, but instead uses Bayesian data analysis and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to calculate an uncertainty estimate. Two flare spectra are modeled: one from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite X1.3 class flare of 2005 January 19, and the other from the X4.8 flare of 2002 July 23.We find that the four methods give approximately the same uncertainty estimates for the 2005 January 19 spectral fit parameters, but lead to very different uncertainty estimates for the 2002 July 23 spectral fit. This is because each method implements different analyses of the hypersurface, yielding method-dependent results that can differ greatly depending on the shape of the hypersurface. The hypersurface arising from the 2005 January 19 analysis is consistent with a normal distribution; therefore, the assumptions behind the three non- Bayesian uncertainty estimation methods are satisfied and similar estimates are found. The 2002 July 23 analysis shows that the hypersurface is not consistent with a normal distribution, indicating that the assumptions behind the three non-Bayesian uncertainty estimation methods are not satisfied, leading to differing estimates of the uncertainty. We find that the shape of the hypersurface is crucial in understanding the output from each uncertainty estimation technique, and that a crucial factor determining the shape of hypersurface is the location of the low-energy cutoff relative to energies where the thermal emission dominates. The Bayesian/MCMC approach also allows us to provide detailed information on probable values of the low-energy cutoff, Ec, a crucial parameter in defining the energy content of the flare-accelerated electrons. We show that for the 2002 July 23 flare data, there is a 95% probability that Ec lies below approximately 40 keV, and a 68% probability that it lies in the range 7-36 keV. Further, the low-energy cutoff is more likely to be in the range 25-35 keV than in any other 10 keV wide energy range. The low-energy cutoff for the 2005 January 19 flare is more tightly constrained to 107 +/- 4 keV with 68% probability.
X-rays↗
High-Latitude Stratospheric Sensitivity to QBO Width in a Chemistry-Climate Model with Parameterized Ozone Chemistry
In a pair of idealized simulations with a simplified chemistry-climate model, the sensitivity of the wintertime Arctic stratosphere to variability in the width of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is assessed. The width of the QBO appears to have equal influence on the Arctic stratosphere as does the phase (i.e. the Holton-Tan mechanism). In the model, a wider QBO acts like a preferential shift toward the easterly phase of the QBO, where zonal winds at 60 N tend to be relatively weaker, while 50 hPa geopotential heights and polar ozone values tend to be higher.
Hurwitz, M. M.↗