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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal interpolation of global dissolved oxygen: 1965–2015

Oxygen inventory of the global ocean has declined in recent decades potentially due to the warming-induced reduction in solubility as well as the circulation and biogeochemical changes associated with ocean warming and increasing stratification. Earth System Models predict continued oxygen decline for this century with profound impacts on marine ecosystem and fisheries. Observational constraint on the rate of oxygen loss is crucial for assessing the ability of models to accurately simulate these changes. There are only a few observational assessments of the global oceanic oxygen inventory reporting a range of oxygen loss. This study develops a gridded data set of dissolved oxygen for the global oceans using optimal interpolation method. The resulting gridded product includes full-depth map of dissolved oxygen as 5-year moving average from 1965 to 2015 with uncertainty estimates. The uncertainty can come from unresolved small-scale and high-frequency variability and mapping errors. The multi-decadal trend of global dissolved oxygen is in the range of -281 to -373 Tmol/decade. This estimate is more conservative than previous works. In this study, the grid points far from the observations are essentially set equal to zero anomaly from the climatology. Calculating global inventory with this approach produces a relatively conservative estimate; thus, the results from this study likely provide a useful lower bound estimate of the global oxygen loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulations of ocean deoxygenation in the historical era: insights from forced and coupled models

Ocean deoxygenation due to anthropogenic warming represents a major threat to marine ecosystems and fisheries. Challenges remain in simulating the modern observed changes in the dissolved oxygen (O 2 ). Here, we present an analysis of upper ocean (0-700m) deoxygenation in recent decades from a suite of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) ocean biogeochemical simulations. The physics and biogeochemical simulations include both ocean-only (the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 and 2, OMIP1 and OMIP2) and coupled Earth system (CMIP6 Historical) configurations. We examine simulated changes in the O 2 inventory and ocean heat content (OHC) over the past 5 decades across models. The models simulate spatially divergent evolution of O 2 trends over the past 5 decades. The trend (multi-model mean and spread) for upper ocean global O 2 inventory for each of the MIP simulations over the past 5 decades is 0.03 ± 0.39×10 14 [mol/decade] for OMIP1, -0.37 ± 0.15×10 14 [mol/decade] for OMIP2, and -1.06 ± 0.68×10 14 [mol/decade] for CMIP6 Historical, respectively. The trend in the upper ocean global O2 inventory for the latest observations based on the World Ocean Database 2018 is -0.98×10 14 [mol/decade], in line with the CMIP6 Historical multi-model mean, though this recent observations-based trend estimate is weaker than previously reported trends. A comparison across ocean-only simulations from OMIP1 and OMIP2 suggests that differences in atmospheric forcing such as surface wind explain the simulated divergence across configurations in O 2 inventory changes. Additionally, a comparison of coupled model simulations from the CMIP6 Historical configuration indicates that differences in background mean states due to differences in spin-up duration and equilibrium states result in substantial differences in the climate change response of O 2 . Finally, we discuss gaps and uncertainties in both ocean biogeochemical simulations and observations and explore possible future coordinated ocean biogeochemistry simulations to fill in gaps and unravel the mechanisms controlling the O 2 changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Middle to Late Holocene Sea Surface Temperature and Productivity Changes in the Northeast Pacific

Variations of the sea surface temperature (SST) and primary productivity in the northeast Pacific have far‐reaching implications. In addition to influencing the regional and global temperature and hydroclimate, these conditions also control marine ecosystems and their services, which subsequently impact regional economies. Yet, our understanding of the variability and controls of northeast Pacific SST and productivity on timescales exceeding observational records remains limited. Here, we use marine sediment records from seven locations, spanning 25.2°N–59.6°N, in the northeast Pacific to characterize the millennial‐scale variability of SST and productivity from 9,000 to 1,000 years BP. We explore the dynamics of their spatiotemporal evolution and compare these data with transient climate model outputs to identify potential drivers. Through a heat budget analysis and optimal fingerprinting analysis, we characterize the spatial pattern of forcings. We find that SST varied spatially in the northeast Pacific, with higher latitudes exhibiting greater magnitude changes than lower latitudes, which differs from previous work suggesting regional synchronicity and coherence during the Holocene. Our analysis did not find evidence for coherent variability of primary producer community nor carbon export, highlighting the difficulty of identifying the complex interactions between environmental conditions, producers, and carbon export. Model‐proxy disagreement demonstrates the need for higher resolution model frameworks, but shows nonetheless that observed variability in the proxy records can be explained by a combination of greenhouse gas and orbital forcing. Here we suggest that the complex SST variations and marine ecosystem responses to forced changes are important factors that can drive disagreements in model projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

The Global Ocean Observing System

A Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) should be established now with international coordination (1) to address issues of global change, (2) to implement operational ENSO forecasts, (3) to provide the data required to apply global ocean circulation models, and (4) to extract the greatest value from the one billion dollar investment over the next ten years in ocean remote sensing by the world's space agencies. The objectives of GOOS will focus on climatic and oceanic predictions, on assessing coastal pollution, and in determining the sustainability of living marine resources and ecosystems. GOOS will be a complete system including satellite observations, in situ observations, numerical modeling of ocean processes, and data exchange and management. A series of practical and economic benefits will be derived from the information generated by GOOS. In addition to the marine science community, these benefits will be realized by the energy industries of the world, and by the world's fisheries. The basic oceanic variables that are required to meet the oceanic and predictability objectives of GOOS include wind velocity over the ocean, sea surface temperature and salinity, oceanic profiles of temperature and salinity, surface current, sea level, the extent and thickness of sea ice, the partial pressure of CO2 in surface waters, and the chlorophyll concentration of surface waters. Ocean circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere models can be used to evaluate observing system design, to assimilate diverse data sets from in situ and remotely sensed observations, and ultimately to predict future states of the system. The volume of ocean data will increase enormously over the next decade as new satellite systems are launched and as complementary in situ measuring systems are deployed. These data must be transmitted, quality controlled, exchanged, analyzed, and archived with the best state-of-the-art computational methods.

Kester, Dana↗
DOE OSTI2021

Elucidation of trophic interactions in an unusual single-cell nitrogen-fixing symbiosis using metabolic modeling

Marine nitrogen-fixing microorganisms are an important source of fixed nitrogen in oceanic ecosystems. The colonial cyanobacterium Trichodesmium and diatom symbionts were thought to be the primary contributors to oceanic N 2 fixation until the discovery of the unusual uncultivated symbiotic cyanobacterium UCYN-A ( Candidatus Atelocyanobacterium thalassa ). UCYN-A has atypical metabolic characteristics lacking the oxygen-evolving photosystem II, the tricarboxylic acid cycle, the carbon-fixation enzyme RuBisCo and de novo biosynthetic pathways for a number of amino acids and nucleotides. Therefore, it is obligately symbiotic with its single-celled haptophyte algal host. UCYN-A receives fixed carbon from its host and returns fixed nitrogen, but further insights into this symbiosis are precluded by both UCYN-A and its host being uncultured. In order to investigate how this syntrophy is coordinated, we reconstructed bottom-up genome-scale metabolic models of UCYN-A and its algal partner to explore possible trophic scenarios, focusing on nitrogen fixation and biomass synthesis. Since both partners are uncultivated and only the genome sequence of UCYN-A is available, we used the phylogenetically related Chrysochromulina tobin as a proxy for the host. Through the use of flux balance analysis (FBA), we determined the minimal set of metabolites and biochemical functions that must be shared between the two organisms to ensure viability and growth. We quantitatively investigated the metabolic characteristics that facilitate daytime N 2 fixation in UCYN-A and possible oxygen-scavenging mechanisms needed to create an anaerobic environment to allow nitrogenase to function. This is the first application of an FBA framework to examine the tight metabolic coupling between uncultivated microbes in marine symbiotic communities and provides a roadmap for future efforts focusing on such specialized systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Opportunities for Earth Observation to Inform Risk Management for Ocean Tipping Points

Abstract As climate change continues, the likelihood of passing critical thresholds or tipping points increases. Hence, there is a need to advance the science for detecting such thresholds. In this paper, we assess the needs and opportunities for Earth Observation (EO, here understood to refer to satellite observations) to inform society in responding to the risks associated with ten potential large-scale ocean tipping elements: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; Atlantic Subpolar Gyre; Beaufort Gyre; Arctic halocline; Kuroshio Large Meander; deoxygenation; phytoplankton; zooplankton; higher level ecosystems (including fisheries); and marine biodiversity. We review current scientific understanding and identify specific EO and related modelling needs for each of these tipping elements. We draw out some generic points that apply across several of the elements. These common points include the importance of maintaining long-term, consistent time series; the need to combine EO data consistently with in situ data types (including subsurface), for example through data assimilation; and the need to reduce or work with current mismatches in resolution (in both directions) between climate models and EO datasets. Our analysis shows that developing EO, modelling and prediction systems together, with understanding of the strengths and limitations of each, provides many promising paths towards monitoring and early warning systems for tipping, and towards the development of the next generation of climate models.

Wood, Richard A. (ORCID:0000000239609513)↗
NASA NTRS2023

Broader Impacts and Outreach Videos on Ocean Physics and Biogeochemistry

This is just a preliminary NF1676 in advance of filming for a project....A convergent team of experts in biology, chemistry, physics, engineering, mathematics, and computational modeling examine how dynamic and coupled phytoplankton-pathogen-particle-predator linkages coalesce to explain the observed high spatial variability in the efficiency of the export of particulate organic carbon (POC) to the deep ocean. They elucidate and quantify the linkages between viruses and ballast minerals to increase understanding of carbon cycling in the oceanic biological carbon pump and the impact of viruses within it. By providing knowledge than can be used to improve the parameterization of carbon export in Earth system models, the project will help reduce uncertainty in regional marine biogeochemical projections, potentially improving marine ecosystem and fisheries management on timescales from seasons to decades. The project includes activities that provide teaching resources and hands-on training to educators within a ‘Tools of Science’ program that provides a simple and succinct way to communicate the process of scientific research to students in a way that is useful to teachers. The project couples laboratory-based experiments on model host-virus-grazer systems with extensive field based observational and manipulative studies on natural populations of diatoms and coccolithophores, the two phytoplankton groups that account for most of the estimated particulate organic matter flux to the deep ocean. Experiments and measurements integrate diagnostic biological and chemical controls on infection and particle coagulation theory with microscale physics and grazing to quantify links to each hypothesized export mechanism under field-relevant turbulent conditions. Cutting-edge engineering and analytical tools are used to diagnose and track infection dynamics while characterizing and quantifying particle aggregation and disaggregation, mineral dissolution, sinking dynamics, grazing rates, and fecal pellet production at unprecedented resolution and under well-defined, microscale physical regimes. Field campaigns elucidate the relative efficiency of hypothesized mechanisms in stimulating POC export in natural blooms, while providing bulk and size-resolved estimates of POC flux.

Daniel B Whitt↗
DOE OSTI2024

A New Coupled Biogeochemical Modeling Approach Provides Accurate Predictions of Methane and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes Across Diverse Tidal Wetlands

Abstract Tidal wetlands provide valuable ecosystem services, including storing large amounts of carbon. However, the net exchanges of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) in tidal wetlands are highly uncertain. While several biogeochemical models can operate in tidal wetlands, they have yet to be parameterized and validated against high‐frequency, ecosystem‐scale CO 2 and CH 4 flux measurements across diverse sites. We paired the Cohort Marsh Equilibrium Model (CMEM) with a version of the PEPRMT model called PEPRMT‐Tidal, which considers the effects of water table height, sulfate, and nitrate availability on CO 2 and CH 4 emissions. Using a model‐data fusion approach, we parameterized the model with three sites and validated it with two independent sites, with representation from the three marine coasts of North America. Gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) modules explained, on average, 73% of the variation in CO 2 exchange with low model error (normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) <1). The CH 4 module also explained the majority of variance in CH 4 emissions in validation sites ( R 2 = 0.54; nRMSE = 1.15). The PEPRMT‐Tidal‐CMEM model coupling is a key advance toward constraining estimates of greenhouse gas emissions across diverse North American tidal wetlands. Further analyses of model error and case studies during changing salinity conditions guide future modeling efforts regarding four main processes: (a) the influence of salinity and nitrate on GPP, (b) the influence of laterally transported dissolved inorganic C on R eco , (c) heterogeneous sulfate availability and methylotrophic methanogenesis impacts on surface CH 4 emissions, and (d) CH 4 responses to non‐periodic changes in salinity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Inversion of Multiangular Polarimetric Measurements Over Open and Coastal Ocean Waters: A Joint Retrieval Algorithm for Aerosol and Water-Leaving Radiance Properties

Ocean color remote sensing is a challenging task over coastal waters due to the complex optical properties of aerosols and hydrosols. In order to conduct accurate atmospheric correction, we previously implemented a joint retrieval algorithm, hereafter referred to as the Multi-Angular Polarimetric Ocean coLor (MAPOL) algorithm, to obtain the aerosol and water-leaving signal simultaneously. The MAPOL algorithm has been validated with synthetic data generated by a vector radiative transfer model, and good retrieval performance has been demonstrated in terms of both aerosol and ocean water optical properties (Gao et al., 2018). In this work we applied the algorithm to airborne polarimetric measurements from the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) over both open and coastal ocean waters acquired in two field campaigns: the Ship-Aircraft Bio-Optical Research (SABOR) in 2014 and the North Atlantic Aerosols and Marine Ecosystems Study (NAAMES) in 2015 and 2016. Two different yet related bio-optical models are designed for ocean water properties. One model aligns with traditional open ocean water bio-optical models that parameterize the ocean optical properties in terms of the concentration of chlorophyll a. The other is a generalized bio-optical model for coastal waters that includes seven free parameters to describe the absorption and scattering by phytoplankton, colored dissolved organic matter, and nonalgal particles. The retrieval errors of both aerosol optical depth and the water-leaving radiance are evaluated. Through the comparisons with ocean color data products from both in situ measurements and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the aerosol product from both the High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) and the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET), the MAPOL algorithm demonstrates both flexibility and accuracy in retrieving aerosol and water-leaving radiance properties under various aerosol and ocean water conditions.

Gao, Meng↗
NASA NTRS1977

Assessment of the impact of increased solar ultraviolet radiation upon marine ecosystems

Specifically, the study has addressed the following: (1) potential for irreversible damage to the productivity, structure and/or functioning of a model estuarine ecosystem by increased UV-B radiation or ecosystems highly stable or amenable to adaptive change, and (2) the sensitivity of key community components (the primary producers, consumers, and decomposers) to increased UV-B radiation. Three areas of study were examined during the past year: (1) a continuation of the study utilizing the two seminatural ecosystem chambers, (2) a pilot study utilizing three flow-through ecosystem tanks enclosed in a small, outdoor greenhouse, and (3) sensitivity studies of representative primary producers and consumers.

Vandyke, H.↗
NASA NTRS2016

A51F-0123: Model Analysis of Tropospheric Aerosol Variability and Sources over the North Atlantic During NAAMES 2015-2016

The North Atlantic Aerosols and Marine Ecosystems Study (NAAMES) is a five-year Earth-Venture Suborbital-2 Mission to characterize the plankton ecosystems and their influences on remote marine aerosols, boundary layer clouds, and their implications for climate in the North Atlantic. While marine-sourced aerosols have been shown to make important contributions to surface aerosol loading, cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei concentrations over remote marine and coastal regions, it is still a challenge to differentiate the marine biogenic aerosol signal from the strong influence of continental pollution outflow. We examine here the spatiotemporal variability and quantify the sources of tropospheric aerosols over the North Atlantic during the first two phases (November 2015 and May-June 2016) of NAAMES using a state-of-the-art chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). The model is driven by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). It includes sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosol thermodynamics coupled to ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon-aerosol chemistry, mineral dust, sea salt, elemental and organic carbon aerosols, and especially a recently implemented parameterization for the marine primary organic aerosol emission. The simulated aerosols over the North Atlantic are evaluated with available satellite (e.g., MODIS) observations of aerosol optical depths (AOD), and aircraft and ship aerosol measurements. We diagnose transport pathways for continental pollution outflow over the North Atlantic using carbon monoxide, an excellent tracer for anthropogenic pollution transport. We also conduct model perturbation experiments to quantify the relative contributions of terrestrial and oceanic sources to the aerosol loading, AOD, and their variability over the North Atlantic.

aerosols↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observationally constrained analysis of sulfur cycle in the marine atmosphere with NASA ATom measurements and AeroCom model simulations

The atmospheric sulfur cycle plays a key role in air quality, climate, and ecosystems, such as pollution, radiative forcing, new particle formation, and acid rain. In this study, we compare the spatially and temporally resolved measurements from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission with simulations from five AeroCom III models for four sulfur species (dimethyl sulfide (DMS), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), particulate methanesulfonate (MSA), and particulate sulfate (SO 4 )). We focus on remote regions over the Pacific, Atlantic, and Southern oceans from near the surface to ~12 km altitude range covering all four seasons. In general, the differences among model results can be greater than 1 order of magnitude. Comparing with observations, model-simulated SO 2 is generally low, whereas SO 4 is generally high. Simulated DMS concentrations near the sea surface exceed observed levels by a factor of 5 in most cases, suggesting potential overestimation of DMS emissions in all models. With GEOS model simulations of tagging emission from anthropogenic, biomass burning, volcanic, and oceanic sources, we find that anthropogenic emissions are the dominant source of sulfate aerosol (40 %–60 % of the total amount) in the ATom measurements at almost all altitudes, followed by volcanic emissions (18 %–32 %) and oceanic sources (16 %–32 %). Similar source contributions can also be derived at broad ocean basins and on monthly scales, indicating the representativeness of ATom measurements for global ocean. Our work presents the first assessment of AeroCom sulfur study using ATom measurements, providing directions for improving sulfate simulations, which remain the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing estimates in aerosol climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Past and future ocean warming

Changes in ocean heat content (OHC) provide a measure of ocean warming, with impacts on the Earth system. This Review synthesizes estimates of past and future OHC changes using observations and models. The top 2,000 m of the global ocean has significantly warmed since the 1950s, gaining 351 ± 59.8 ZJ (1 ZJ = 10 21 J) from 1958 to 2019. The rate of warming increased from <5 to ~10 ZJ yr –1 from the 1960s to the 2010s. Observed area-averaged warming is largest in the Atlantic Ocean and southern oceans at 1.42 ± 0.09 and 1.40 ± 0.09 × 109 J m –2 , respectively, for the upper 2,000 m over 1958–2019. These observed patterns of heat gains are dominated by heat redistribution. Observationally constrained projections suggest that historic ocean warming is irreversible this century, with net warming dependent on the emission scenario. By 2100, projected warming in the top 2,000 m is 2–6 times that observed so far, ranging from 1,030 [839–1,228] ZJ for a low-emission scenario to 1,874 [1,637–2,109] ZJ for a high-emission scenario. The Pacific is projected to be the largest heat reservoir owing to its size, but area-averaged warming remains strongest in the Atlantic and southern oceans. Ocean warming has extensive impacts that pose risks to marine ecosystems and society. Here, the projected changes necessitate a continuation and improvement of observations and models, along with better uncertainty estimation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Aerosols in Atmospheric Chemistry and Biogeochemical Cycles of Nutrients

Atmospheric aerosols have complex and variable compositions and properties.While scientific interest is centered on the health and climatic effects of atmospheric aerosols, insufficient attention is given to their involvement in multiphase chemistry that alters their contribution as carriers of nutrients in ecosystems. However, there is experimental proof that the nutrient equilibria of both land and marine ecosystems have been disturbed during the Anthropocene period. This review study first summarizes our current understanding of aerosol chemical processing in the atmosphere as relevant to biogeochemical cycles. Then it binds together results of recent modeling studies based on laboratory and field experiments, focusing on the organic and dust components of aerosols that account for multiphase chemistry, aerosol ageing in the atmosphere, nutrient (N, P, Fe) emissions, atmospheric transport, transformation and deposition. The human-driven contribution to atmospheric deposition of these nutrients, derived by global simulations using past and future anthropogenic emissions of pollutants, is put into perspective with regard to potential changes in nutrient limitations and biodiversity. Atmospheric deposition of nutrients has been suggested to result in human-induced ecosystem limitations with regard to specific nutrients. Such modifications favor the development of certain species against others and affect the overall functioning of ecosystems. Organic forms of nutrients are found to contribute to the atmospheric deposition of the nutrients N, P and Fe by 20%-40%, 35%-45% and 7%-18%, respectively. These have the potential to be key components of the biogeochemical cycles since there is initial proof of their bioavailability to ecosystems. Bioaerosols have been found to make a significant contribution to atmospheric sources of N and P, indicating potentially significant interactions between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. These results deserve further experimental and modeling studies to reduce uncertainties and understand the feedbacks induced by atmospheric deposition of nutrients to ecosystems.

dust↗
NASA NTRS2019

Integrating Remote Sensing Observations with NASA's GEOS-5 Modeling Framework in Support of Retrospective Analyses and Seasonal Prediction of Biosphere-Atmosphere CO2 Flux

The absorption of nearly half of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by terrestrial and marine ecosystems has played a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, a persistent lack of understanding of these uptake processes impedes attribution, and thereby introduces large uncertainties into projections of the trajectory of carbon and climate in coming decades. A better understanding and quantification of the seasonal and interannual variability of carbon flux between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial biospheres is critically needed to improve predictions from Earth system models. We propose to bring together a diverse suite of remote sensing observations, mechanistic models, and NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) model to address two objective 1) quantify the processes controlling the temporal variability of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 flux on seasonal and interannual timescales from 1989 to 2018 and 2) evaluating the predictability of the components of carbon flux on seasonal timescales. Because GEOS-5 has been developed to incorporate a variety of Earth system observations and includes a complete and physically consistent depiction of the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon cycles, it represents a unique and ideal synthesis framework for this effort. By expanding the realism of processes that could be included in GEOS-5 seasonal forecasts, this effort supports NASA's goals toward an integrated Earth system modeling and prediction framework.We propose to integrate a number of observations into the GEOS-5 modeling system to refine retrospective estimates of both terrestrial and marine carbon flux and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of climate drivers on terrestrial carbon flux. This will include assimilating several satellite ocean color products in the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) to improve the representation of ocean biology. We will also utilize remote sensing datasets to increase the temporal resolution of global land-use change estimates and fire emissions to better constrain the temporal variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This information will be incorporated into two NASA terrestrial biosphere models Catchment-CN, a dynamic vegetation model that is integrated within GEOS-5 and the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, a core modeling resource supporting the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission to map biomass. Fluxes will be evaluated through 1) comparison to top-down flux estimates inferred from surface CO2 observations and 2) comparison against available aircraft and satellite observations.By combining predictions of net ecosystem exchange and air-sea CO2 flux from land and ocean models with statistical predictions of land use change, fire, and fossil fuel emissions, we propose to create the first dynamical CO2 forecast on seasonal timescales. Because of the experimental nature of this endeavor, an important project objective will be to evaluate the limits to the predictability of different carbon cycle processes over lead times of 1-12 months using different satellite and surface data streams.

Ott, Lesley↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate-Mediated Changes to Linked Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems across the Northeast Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest Margin

Coastal margins are important areas of materials flux that link terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Consequently, climate-mediated changes to coastal terrestrial ecosystems and hydrologic regimes have high potential to influence nearshore ocean chemistry and food web dynamics. Research from tightly coupled, high-flux coastal ecosystems can advance understanding of terrestrial–marine links and climate sensitivities more generally. In the present article, we use the northeast Pacific coastal temperate rainforest as a model system to evaluate such links. We focus on key above- and belowground production and hydrological transport processes that control the land-to-ocean flow of materials and their influence on nearshore marine ecosystems. We evaluate how these connections may be altered by global climate change and we identify knowledge gaps in our understanding of the source, transport, and fate of terrestrial materials along this coastal margin. Finally, we propose five priority research themes in this region that are relevant for understanding coastal ecosystem links more broadly.

temperate rainforest, coastal margin, climate chan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Diel Transcriptional Oscillations of a Plastid Antiporter Reflect Increased Resilience of Thalassiosira pseudonana in Elevated CO 2

Acidification of the ocean due to high atmospheric CO 2 levels may increase the resilience of diatoms causing dramatic shifts in abiotic and biotic cycles with lasting implications on marine ecosystems. Here, we report a potential bioindicator of a shift in the resilience of a coastal and centric model diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana under elevated CO 2 . Specifically, we have discovered, through EGFP-tagging, a plastid membrane localized putative Na + (K + )/H + antiporter that is significantly upregulated at >800 ppm CO 2 , with a potentially important role in maintaining pH homeostasis. Notably, transcript abundance of this antiporter gene was relatively low and constant over the diel cycle under contemporary CO 2 conditions. In future acidified oceanic conditions, dramatic oscillation with >10-fold change between nighttime (high) and daytime (low) transcript abundances of the antiporter was associated with increased resilience of T. pseudonana. By analyzing metatranscriptomic data from the Tara Oceans project, we demonstrate that phylogenetically diverse diatoms express homologs of this antiporter across the globe. We propose that the differential between night- and daytime transcript levels of the antiporter could serve as a bioindicator of a shift in the resilience of diatoms in response to high CO 2 conditions in marine environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗