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FluxSat: Long-term Earth Science Data Record (ESDR) for Terrestrial Gross Primary Production (GPP) based on satellite data calibrated with eddy covariance data

Gross primary production (GPP), the amount of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) assimilated by plants through photosynthesis, is one of the most variable and uncertain components of the global carbon cycle. Global GPP has been estimated with a number of process-based models, data-driven, and hybrid approaches. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), driven by observed environmental changes, are used for global carbon budget assessments and long-term (climate) prediction. Benchmarking these and other models globally with data-driven GPP estimates is critical for understanding the land sink and ensuring accurate forecasts of the carbon cycle. In addition, global data-driven GPP estimates are crucial for studies of interannual variability, including trends that are linked to mechanisms with large uncertainties, such as the indirect CO 2 fertilization effect related to greening. In response to a community need for a GPP data set that well captures spatio-temporal variability, we developed FluxSat, a data-driven approach that optimizes the use of satellite reflectance data from the NASA MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites, calibrated using ground-based eddy covariance (EC) data. We are enhancing (spatially, higher resolution) and extending FluxSat (in time, with additional sensors) to create a high quality long term GPP Earth System Data Record (ESDR) for use in model benchmarking, carbon cycle modeling, and studies of trends and interannual variability. Our team’s objectives are to: 1. Update and document the current MODIS FluxSat GPP (daily, 0.05o and 0.5o resolutions) products with latest available MODIS and EC data sets; 2. Extend FluxSat GPP record forward in time with the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on operational weather satellites going forward; 3. Extend FluxSat GPP record backward in time using the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on weather satellites dating back to 1981; 4. Provide higher spatial resolution MODIS and VIIRS GPP (0.0083o). 5. Thoroughly evaluate all FluxSat products with independent data; and 6. Create a homogenized long-term GPP record spanning 40+ years. We will discuss plans for this long-term data set that is supported through the NASA Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) program.

gross Primary Production↗

NASA NTRS2007

Alpine forest-tundra ecotone response to temperature change,Sayan Mountains, Siberia

Models of climate change predict shifts of vegetation zones. Tree response to climate trends is most likely observable in the forest-tundra ecotone, where temperature mainly limits tree growth. There is evidence of vegetation change on the northern treeline However, observations on alpine tree line response are controversial. In this NEESPI related study we show that during the past three decades in the forest-tundra ecotone of the Sayan Mountains, Siberia, there was an increase in forest stand crown closure, regeneration propagation into the alpine tundra, and transformation of prostrate Siberian pine and fir into arboreal forms. We found that these changes occurred since the mid 1980s, and strongly correlates with positive temperature (and to a lesser extent, precipitation) trends. Improving climate for forest growth( i.e., warmer temperatures and increased precipitation) provides competitive advantages to Siberian pine in the alpine forest-tundra ecotone, as well as in areas typically dominated by larch, where it has been found to be forming a secondary canopy layer. Substitution of deciduous conifer, larch, for evergreen conifers, decreases albedo and provides positive feedback for temperature increase.

Ranson, K Jon↗

NASA NTRS2019

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

land use change↗

NASA NTRS2015

Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects

Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO2 concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater-surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyper resolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.

Global hydrological model↗

NASA NTRS2021

Canopy reflectance models illustrate varying NDVI responses to change in high latitude ecosystems

Multiyear trends in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have been used as metrics of high latitude ecosystem change based on the assumption that NDVI change is associated with ecological change, generally as changes in green vegetation amount (green leaf area index [LAI] or plant cover). Further, no change in NDVI is often interpreted as no change in these variables. Three canopy reflectance models including linear mixture model, the SAIL (Scattering from Arbitrarily Inclined Leaves) model, and the GeoSail model were used to simulate scenarios representing high latitude landscape NDVI responses to changes in LAI and plant cover. The simulations showed inconsistent NDVI responses. Clear increases in NDVI are generally associated with increases in LAI and plant cover. At higher values of LAI, the change in NDVI per unit change in LAI decreases, with very little change in spruce forest NDVI where crown cover is >50% and at the tundra–taiga ecotone with transitions from shrub tundra to spruce woodland. These lower responses may bias the interpretation of greening/browning trends in boreal forests. Variations in water or snow coverage were shown to produce outsized nonbiological NDVI responses. Inconsistencies in NDVI responses exemplify the need for care in the interpretation of NDVI change as a metric of high latitude ecosystem change, and that landscape characteristics in terms of the type of cover and its characteristics, such as the initial plant cover, must be taken into account in evaluating the significance of any observed NDVI trends.

Karl F Huemmrich↗

NASA NTRS2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC/yr for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC/yr). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

land use and land cover change↗

NASA NTRS2008

POLSCAT Ku-Band Radar Remote Sensing of Terrestrial Snow Cover

Characteristics of the POLSCAT data acquired from five sets of aircraft flights in the winter months of 2006-2008 for the second Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX-II) in Colorado are described in this paper. The data showed the response of the Ku-band radar echoes to snowpack changes for various types of background vegetation in the study site in north central Colorado. We observed about 0.15 to 0.5 dB increases in backscatter for every 1 cm of snow water equivalent (SWE) accumulation for areas with short vegetation. Based on a simplified radiative transfer model, the change detection technique is used to convert the temporal change of radar backscatter into SWE accumulation for dry snow conditions. The resulting SWE accumulation estimates are consistent with the in-situ SWE measurements, with about 2 to 3 cm Root-Mean-Square (RMS) difference for regions with sagebrush or pasture.

radar↗

NASA NTRS2022

Satellite Soil Moisture Data Assimilation Impacts on Modeling Weather Variables and Ozone in the Southeastern US – Part 2: Sensitivity to Dry-Deposition Parameterizations

Ozone (O3) dry deposition is a major O3 sink. As a follow-up study of Huang et al. (2021), we quantify the impact of satellite soil moisture (SM) on model representations of this process when different dry-deposition parameterizations are implemented, based on which the implications for interpreting O3 air pollution levels and assessing the O3 impacts on human and ecosystem health are provided. The SM data from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive mission are assimilated into the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model within the NASA Land Information System framework, semicoupled with Weather Research and Forecasting model with online Chemistry (WRF-Chem) regional-scale simulations covering the southeastern US. Major changes in the modeling system used include enabling the dynamic vegetation option, adding the irrigation process, and updating the scheme for the surface exchange coefficient. Two dry-deposition schemes are implemented, i.e., the Wesely scheme and a “dynamic” scheme, in the latter of which dry-deposition parameterization is coupled with photosynthesis and vegetation dynamics. It is demonstrated that, when the dynamic scheme is applied, the simulated O3 dry-deposition velocities vd and their stomatal and cuticular portions, as well as the total O3 fluxes Ft, are larger overall; vd and Ft are 2–3 times more sensitive to the SM changes due to the data assimilation (DA). Further, through case studies at two forested sites with different soil types and hydrological regimes, we highlight that, applying the Community Land Model type of SM factor controlling stomatal resistance (i.e., β factor) scheme in replacement of the Noah-type β factor scheme reduced the v(d) sensitivity to SM changes by ∼75 % at one site, while it doubled this sensitivity at the other site. Referring to multiple evaluation datasets, which may be associated with variable extents of uncertainty, the model performance of vegetation, surface fluxes, weather, and surface O3 concentrations shows mixed responses to the DA, some of which display land cover dependency. Finally, using model-derived concentration- and flux-based policy-relevant O3 metrics as well as their matching exposure–response functions, the relative biomass/crop yield losses for several types of vegetation/crops are estimated to be within a wide range of 1 %–17 %. Their sensitivities to the model's dry-deposition scheme and the implementation of SM DA are discussed.

Min Huang↗

NASA NTRS2012

Earth System Modeling and Field Experiments in the Arctic-Boreal Zone - Report from a NASA Workshop

Early climate modeling studies predicted that the Arctic Ocean and surrounding circumpolar land masses would heat up earlier and faster than other parts of the planet as a result of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, augmented by the sea-ice albedo feedback effect. These predictions have been largely borne out by observations over the last thirty years. However, despite constant improvement, global climate models have greater difficulty in reproducing the current climate in the Arctic than elsewhere and the scatter between projections from different climate models is much larger in the Arctic than for other regions. Biogeochemical cycle (BGC) models indicate that the warming in the Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) could lead to widespread thawing of the permafrost, along with massive releases of CO2 and CH4, and large-scale changes in the vegetation cover in the ABZ. However, the uncertainties associated with these BGC model predictions are even larger than those associated with the physical climate system models used to describe climate change. These deficiencies in climate and BGC models reflect, at least in part, an incomplete understanding of the Arctic climate system and can be related to inadequate observational data or analyses of existing data. A workshop was held at NASA/GSFC, May 22-24 2012, to assess the predictive capability of the models, prioritize the critical science questions; and make recommendations regarding new field experiments needed to improve model subcomponents. This presentation will summarize the findings and recommendations of the workshop, including the need for aircraft and flux tower measurements and extension of existing in-situ measurements to improve process modeling of both the physical climate and biogeochemical cycle systems. Studies should be directly linked to remote sensing investigations with a view to scaling up the improved process models to the Earth System Model scale. Data assimilation and observing system simulation studies should be used to guide the deployment pattern and schedule for inversion studies as well. Synthesis and integration of previously funded Arctic-Boreal projects (e.g., ABLE, BOREAS, ICESCAPE, ICEBRIDGE, ARCTAS) should also be undertaken. Such an effort would include the integration of multiple remotely sensed products from the EOS satellites and other resources.

Sellers, Piers↗

NASA NTRS1975

Further tests of plant canopy reflectance models and investigation of non-Lambertian properties of plant canopies

The experimental bidirectional reflectance of cotton is presented and compared to the Suits vegetation model. Some wheat reflectance data are presented for a Mexican dwarf wheat. The general results are that the exchange of source position and detector position gives the same reflectance measurement if the irradiance is purely specular. This agrees with Suites. The reflectance versus sun angle and reflectance versus detector angle do not agree with the Suits predictions. There is qualitative agreement between the Suits model and reflectance versus wavelength, but quantitative agreement has not been observed. Reflectance of a vegetation canopy with detector azimuth shows a change of 10 to 40% for even sun angles near zenith, so it seems advisable to include azimuthal angles into models of vegetation.

Lemaster, E. W.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Capitol Reef Ecological Conservation: Mapping Vegetation Functional Groups to Inform Invasive Vegetation Management, Ecological Conservation and Restoration in Capitol Reef National Park

Invasive exotic plant (IEP) species have been found within the park boundaries of Capitol Reef National Park (CARE) in Utah. Currently, remotely sensed datasets such as the Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP) from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) have been used to investigate IEP species within the park, but validation of the national RAP program is necessary for informing decisions at a local scale. CARE seeks a remote monitoring solution that can precisely target managerial efforts within the park’s challenging terrain and hard-to-reach locations. To fulfill this objective, we harnessed Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) imagery and leveraged Random Forest (RF) modeling to generate classification maps characterizing vegetation functional groups for 2013 and 2022 within the park. Subsequently, the Land Change Modeler (LCM) in Idrisi TerrSet facilitated the production of a predicted classification map for 2033. The team also devised an annual grass probability map to accentuate areas impacted by exotic grasses. A comparative assessment between the RF classification map and the RAP map for 2022 revealed an overall agreement of 47.41%, with disparities primarily arising from differences in bare soil and shrub areas. Significantly, the 2022 RF-generated classification map showcased an impressive overall accuracy of 92.17%. In short, the probability map, the land cover change detection spanning 2013 to 2022, and the forecasting of observed trends into the future aids in the evaluation of invasive plant impacts and facilitation of CARE’s preparedness for potential ecological disturbances. Notably, in comparison to the RAP, the RF classification method generates functional group maps that are more representative of the study area.

Vanchy Li↗

NASA NTRS2021

Discrete anisotropic radiative transfer modelling of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence: Structural impacts in geometrically explicit vegetation canopies

Solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) is a subtle but informative optical signal of vegetation photosynthesis. Remotely sensed SIF integrates environmental, physiological and structural changes that alter photosynthesis at leaf, plant and canopy scales. Radiative transfer models are ideally suited to investigate the complex sources of variability in the SIF signal to guide the interpretation of SIF retrievals from airborne and space-borne platforms. Here, we coupled the Fluspect-Cx model of leaf optical properties and chlorophyll-a fluorescence with the Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART) model to upscale SIF from individual leaves to three-dimensional (3D) structurally explicit canopies. For one-dimensional homogeneous (turbid-like) canopies, DART-SIF was nearly identical to SIF simulated in two existing models, SCOPE and mSCOPE (RMSE <0.221 W./sq.m.μm.sr). DART simulations in geometrically explicit 3D canopies offered four important insights regarding the influence of vegetation structure on the multi-angular top-of-canopy SIF signal. First, changes in the 3D canopy architecture of maize crops, represented by leaf density (leaf area index), and plant clumping (canopy closure) had a larger impact on SIF than the modelled photosynthetic efficiency distinction between sun-adapted and shade-adapted foliage. Second, clumping of leaves at the crop and stand levels was identified as one of the key driving factors of multi-angular anisotropy of red and far-red SIF (686 and 740 nm) for both maize and eucalyptus canopies. Third, non-photosynthetic woody material had a significant impact on top-of-canopy SIF in modelled 3D forest stands. Wood shadowing decreased the photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by green leaves, and consequently the SIF emissions, by 10% in sparse and 17% in dense eucalyptus stands. The wood obstruction (blocking) effect, quantified as a relative difference of SIF escape probabilities from canopies with and without wood in the nadir viewing direction, decreased far-red SIF by 4–6% but it had a smaller and sometimes positive influence (by less than 2%) on red SIF. Fourth, DART 3D radiative budget profiles revealed that the majority of the SIF signal from a dense eucalyptus stand originated from the top 25% of the simulated canopy. Interestingly, the introduction of bark-covered woody elements did not alter the simulated balance and omnidirectional escape factor of red SIF in this upper canopy part but did raise significantly both of them in case of far-red SIF. These results demonstrate the importance of 3D radiative transfer and radiative budget simulations for investigating SIF interactions in structurally complex plant canopies and for a better understanding of spatiotemporal and multi-angular remote sensing SIF observations.

Zbyněk Malenovský↗

NASA NTRS2023

Accounting for Herbaceous Communities in Process-Based Models Will Advance Our Understanding of “Grassy” Ecosystems

Grassland and other herbaceous communities cover significant portions of Earth's terrestrial surface and provide many critical services, such as carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, and food production. Forecasts of global change impacts on these services will require predictive tools, such as process-based dynamic vegetation models. Yet, model representation of herbaceous communities and ecosystems lags substantially behind that of tree communities and forests. The limited representation of herbaceous communities within models arises from two important knowledge gaps: first, our empirical understanding of the principles governing herbaceous vegetation dynamics is either incomplete or does not provide mechanistic information necessary to drive herbaceous community processes with models; second, current model structure and parameterization of grass and other herbaceous plant functional types limits the ability of models to predict outcomes of competition and growth for herbaceous vegetation. In this review, we provide direction for addressing these gaps by: (1) presenting a brief history of how vegetation dynamics have been developed and incorporated into earth system models, (2) reporting on a model simulation activity to evaluate current model capability to represent herbaceous vegetation dynamics and ecosystem function, and (3) detailing several ecological properties and phenomena that should be a focus for both empiricists and modelers to improve representation of herbaceous vegetation in models. Together, empiricists and modelers can improve representation of herbaceous ecosystem processes within models. In so doing, we will greatly enhance our ability to forecast future states of the earth system, which is of high importance given the rapid rate of environmental change on our planet.

biogeochemistry↗

NASA NTRS2019

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Krause, A.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Harmonising the Land-Use Flux Estimates of Global Models and National Inventories for 2000–2020

As the focus of climate policy shifts from pledges to implementation, there is a growing need to track progress on climate change mitigation at the country level, particularly for the land-use sector. Despite new tools and models providing unprecedented monitoring opportunities, striking differences remain in estimations of anthropogenic land-use CO 2 fluxes between, on the one hand, the national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) used to assess compliance with national climate targets under the Paris Agreement and, on the other hand, the Global Carbon Budget and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, both based on global bookkeeping models (BMs). Recent studies have shown that these differences are mainly due to inconsistent definitions of anthropogenic CO 2 fluxes in managed forests. Countries assume larger areas of forest to be managed than BMs do, due to a broader definition of managed land in NGHGIs. Additionally, the fraction of the land sink caused by indirect effects of human-induced environmental change (e.g. fertilisation effect on vegetation growth due to increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration) on managed lands is treated as non-anthropogenic by BMs but as anthropogenic in most NGHGIs. We implement an approach that adds the CO 2 sink caused by environmental change in countries' managed forests (estimated by 16 dynamic global vegetation models, DGVMs) to the land-use fluxes from three BMs. This sum is conceptually more comparable to NGHGIs and is thus expected to be quantitatively more similar. Our analysis uses updated and more comprehensive data from NGHGIs than previous studies and provides model results at a greater level of disaggregation in terms of regions, countries and land categories (i.e. forest land, deforestation, organic soils, other land uses). Our results confirm a large difference (6.7 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) in global land-use CO 2 fluxes between the ensemble mean of the BMs, which estimate a source of 4.8 GtCO 2 yr −1 for the period 2000–2020, and NGHGIs, which estimate a sink of −1.9 GtCO 2 yr −1 in the same period. Most of the gap is found on forest land (3.5 GtCO 2 yr −1 ), with differences also for deforestation (2.4 GtCO 2 yr −1 ), for fluxes from other land uses (1.0 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) and to a lesser extent for fluxes from organic soils (0.2 GtCO2 yr−1). By adding the DGVM ensemble mean sink arising from environmental change in managed forests (−6.4 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) to BM estimates, the gap between BMs and NGHGIs becomes substantially smaller both globally (residual gap: 0.3 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) and in most regions and countries. However, some discrepancies remain and deserve further investigation. For example, the BMs generally provide higher emissions from deforestation than NGHGIs and, when adjusted with the sink in managed forests estimated by DGVMs, yield a sink that is often greater than NGHGIs. In summary, this study provides a blueprint for harmonising the estimations of anthropogenic land-use fluxes, allowing for detailed comparisons between global models and national inventories at global, regional and country levels. This is crucial to increase confidence in land-use emissions estimates, support investments in land-based mitigation strategies and assess the countries' collective progress under the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement.

Giacomo Grassi↗

NASA NTRS2018

Modeling the Interactive Effects of Spruce Beetle Infestation and Climate on Subalpine Vegetation

In the subalpine zone of the Rocky Mountains, climate change is predicted to result in an increase in the frequency and severity of spruce beetle outbreaks. Climate change itself may affect vegetation, potentially leading to changes in species composition. The direct and indirect effects of climate and disturbances on forest composition, biomass, and dynamics open the possibility for non-linear ecosystem responses. Modeling studies allow for the study of the interaction of these effects and their impact on the forest system. University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME), an individual-based gap model that simulates forest dynamics and characteristics, is updated with a spruce beetle subroutine that calculates the probability for beetle infestation and potential mortalityof each tree on a plot. The updated model is then run with multiple scenarios that combine beetle infestation with current or altered climate at sites across the southern Rocky Mountains. Results show that spruce beetle infestations acted to facilitate competition with invading lower-elevation species, resulting in an increase in the biomass of historically lower elevation species and a further decline in Engelmann spruce biomass than occurred with solely bark beetle disturbance or solely climate change. We also found an initial enhancing effect between spruce beetle infestation and climate change; however, by the end of 100 yr of climate change and potential beetle infestation, climate had a dampening effect on spruce beetle infestation, through loss of host trees. These results are an important step in understanding the possible futures for vegetation of the Rocky Mountains as well as for spruce forests across the western United States and Canada.

Foster, Adrianna C.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Southern Idaho Ecological Conservation: Investigating the Impact of Targeted Grazing to Improve Wetland Habitat in the Sterling Wildlife Management Area

Wetland ecosystems are vital for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services. The Sterling Wildlife Management Area in Bingham County, Idaho, has management concerns about decadent and accumulated vegetation growth encroaching on wetland habitat, which presents challenges for wildlife, decreases biodiversity, and limits public access. Targeted grazing has been proposed as a sustainable alternative to chemical herbicides or burning. Land managers introduced targeted cattle grazing in January 2021 to reduce biomass. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the Idaho Department of Fish and Game to determine the impact of grazing using NASA Earth observations from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) in Google Earth Engine (GEE). Images were processed with TerrSet’s Land Change Modeler and ArcGIS Pro’s Change Detection Wizard to understand land changes following grazing. A Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis was performed to assess impacts on vegetation productivity and compare variance in biomass before and after grazing. A Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was used to compare changes in the wetland and its vegetation content to evaluate the suitability of the area for migratory birds post-grazing. Results showed a decrease in the vegetation index and an increase in the water index postgrazing. The DEVELOP team’s analysis suggests that grazing helps break down thick, senesced vegetation and increase soil moisture. Providing a workflow model will aid partners in continuing to monitor this management area and other management areas across the state.

change detection↗

NASA NTRS1996

Modeling Wetland Vegetation using Polarimetric SAR

A three-year project to study small-scale topographic changes and relict geomorphic features on barrier islands using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is described. A study area on the Texas coast consisting of Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula was overflown by the NASA/JPL DC 8 AIRSAR in April 1995. Data was acquired in the fully polarimetric mode using C-, L-, and P-bands and in the TOPSAR configuration with C- and L-bands in interferometric mode. The study area will be overflown again in late spring 1996. The data will be registered to global positioning system (GPS) surveyed points to form high resolution digital elevation models (DEM) and then analyzed to investigate possible topographic changes.

Slatton, K. Clint↗