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Green Run Modal Test of the NASA Space Launch System Core Stage

The Core Stage of the new NASA Space Launch System (SLS) is a 212-foot tall rocket assembly—consisting primarily of two fuel tanks, an engine section, and four RS-25 rocket engines—capable of sending crew and large payloads to the moon and beyond with 1.6 million pounds of thrust. Currently, the Core Stage is in the B2 Test Stand at Stennis Space Center, undergoing a series of structural and functional tests, designated the Green Run test series. The ultimate goal of Green Run is to verify analytical models and confirm proper subsystem operation of the Core Stage. In January 2020, Green Run testing began with an experimental modal analysis test performed by the Marshal Space Flight Center modal test team. The desired free boundary condition of the Core Stage was achieved by suspending the massive spacecraft from the B2 Test Stand crane. Modal excitation was provided by a pair of 250-lb electro-dynamic shakers for multi-shaker random vibration testing, as well as a 12-pound impact hammer for impact testing. Modal response was measured with 550 accelerometers channels distributed on both the Core Stage and the B2 Test Stand crane. Following one very long night of testing, frequency response functions were calculated from the measured time histories in the target mode frequency range of 2.5 Hz to 15 Hz, and mode shapes, frequencies, and damping values were successfully extracted. The case-study presented in this paper will discuss the SLS Core Stage, the modal test setup and procedure, as well as a brief overview of the test results. Challenges associated with testing such a large, suspended structure in an outdoor environment will be discussed as well.

Green Run↗

A surface temperature and moisture parameterization for use in mesoscale numerical models

A modified multi-level soil moisture and surface temperature model is presented for use as in defining lower boundary conditions in mesoscale weather models. Account is taken of the hydraulic and thermal diffusion properties of the soil, their variations with soil type, and the mixing ratio at the surface. Techniques are defined for integrating the surface input into the multi-level scheme. Sample simulation runs were performed with the modified model and the original model defined by Pielke, et al. (1977, 1981). The models were applied to regional weather forecasting over soils composed of sand and clay loam. The new form of the model avoided iterations necessary in the earlier version of the model and achieved convergence at reasonable profiles for surface temperature and moisture in regions where the earlier version of the model failed.

Tremback, C. J.↗

Evolution of the Oxidation State of the Earth's Mantle

The oxidation state of the Earth's mantle during formation remains an unresolved question, whether it was constant throughout planetary accretion, transitioned from reduced to oxidized, or from oxidized to reduced. We investigate the stability of Fe3(+) at depth, in order to constrain processes (water, late accretion, dissociation of FeO) which may reduce or oxidize the Earth's mantle. In our previous experiments on shergottite compositions, variable fO2, T, and P less than 4 GPa, Fe3(+)/sigma Fe decreased slightly with increasing P, similar to terrestrial basalt. For oxidizing experiments less than 7GPa, Fe3(+)/sigma Fe decreased as well, but it's unclear from previous modelling whether the deeper mantle could retain significant Fe3(+). Our current experiments expand our pressure range deeper into the Earth's mantle and focus on compositions and conditions relevant to the early Earth. Preliminary multi-anvil experiments with Knippa basalt as the starting composition were conducted at 5-7 GPa and 1800 C, using a molybdenum capsule to set the fO2 near IW, by buffering with Mo-MoO3. TEM and EELS analyses revealed the run products quenched to polycrystalline phases, with the major phase pyroxene containing approximately equal to Fe3(+)/2(+). Experiments are underway to produce glassy samples that can be measured by EELS and XANES, and are conducted at higher pressures.

Danielson, L. R.↗

Multi-color incomplete Cholesky conjugate gradient methods for vector computers

In this research, we are concerned with the solution on vector computers of linear systems of equations, Ax = b, where A is a larger, sparse symmetric positive definite matrix. We solve the system using an iterative method, the incomplete Cholesky conjugate gradient method (ICCG). We apply a multi-color strategy to obtain p-color matrices for which a block-oriented ICCG method is implemented on the CYBER 205. (A p-colored matrix is a matrix which can be partitioned into a pXp block matrix where the diagonal blocks are diagonal matrices). This algorithm, which is based on a no-fill strategy, achieves O(N/p) length vector operations in both the decomposition of A and in the forward and back solves necessary at each iteration of the method. We discuss the natural ordering of the unknowns as an ordering that minimizes the number of diagonals in the matrix and define multi-color orderings in terms of disjoint sets of the unknowns. We give necessary and sufficient conditions to determine which multi-color orderings of the unknowns correpond to p-color matrices. A performance model is given which is used both to predict execution time for ICCG methods and also to compare an ICCG method to conjugate gradient without preconditioning or another ICCG method. Results are given from runs on the CYBER 205 at NASA's Langley Research Center for four model problems.

Poole, E. L.↗

Recent Upgrades to NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for the Environmental Modeling System

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed several products for its National Weather Service (NWS) partners that can initialize specific fields for local model runs within the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center (STRC) Environmental Modeling System (EMS). In last year's NWA abstract on this topic, the suite of SPoRT products supported in the STRC EMS was presented, which includes a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) composite, a Great Lakes sea-ice extent, a Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite, and NASA Land Information System (LIS) gridded output. This abstract and companion presentation describes recent upgrades made to the SST and GVF composites, as well as the real-time LIS runs. The Great Lakes sea-ice product is unchanged from 2011. The SPoRT SST composite product has been expanded geographically and as a result, the resolution has been coarsened from 1 km to 2 km to accommodate the larger domain. The expanded domain covers much of the northern hemisphere from eastern Asia to western Europe (0 N to 80 N latitude and 150 E to 10 E longitude). In addition, the NESDIS POES-GOES product was added to fill in gaps caused by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) being unable to sense in cloudy regions, replacing the recently-lost Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS with negligible change to product fidelity. The SST product now runs twice per day for Terra and Aqua combined data collections from 0000 to 1200 UTC and from 1200 to 0000 UTC, with valid analysis times at 0600 and 1800 UTC. The twice-daily compositing technique reduces the overall latency of the previous version while still representing the diurnal cycle characteristics. The SST composites are available at approximately four hours after the end of each collection period (i.e. 1600 UTC for the nighttime analysis and 0400 UTC for the daytime analysis). The real-time MODIS GVF composite has only received minor updates in the past year. The domain was expanded slightly to extend further west, north, and east to improve coverage over parts of southern Canada. Minor adjustments were also made to the manner in which GVF is calculated from the distribution of maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index from MODIS. The presentation will highlight some examples of the substantial inter-annual change in GVF that occurred from 2010 to 2011 in the U.S. Southern Plains as a result of the summer 2011 drought, and the early vegetation green up across the eastern U.S. due to the very warm conditions in March 2012. Finally, the SPoRT LIS runs the operational Noah land surface model (LSM) in real time over much of the eastern half of the CONUS. The Noah LSM is continually cycled in real time, uncoupled to any model, and driven by operational atmospheric analyses over a long-term, multi-year integration. The LIS-Noah provides the STRC EMS with high-resolution (3 km) LSM initialization data that are in equilibrium with the operational analysis forcing. The Noah LSM within the SPoRT LIS has been upgraded from version 2.7.1 to version 3.2, which has improved look-up table attributes for several land surface quantities. The surface albedo field is now being adjusted based on the input real-time MODIS GVF, thereby improving the net radiation. Also, the LIS-Noah now uses the newer MODIS-based land use classification scheme (i.e. the International Biosphere-Geosphere Programme [IGBP]) that has a better depiction of urban corridors in areas where urban sprawl has occurred. STRC EMS users interested in initializing their LSM fields with high-resolution SPoRT LIS data should set up their model domain with the MODIS-IGBP 20-class land use database and select Noah as the LSM.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Self-Consistent Implementation of a Zero-Equation Transport Model Into a Predictive Model for a Hall Effect Thruster

The performance of an axisymmetric multi-fluid Hall thruster code that incorporates a self-consistent, data-driven closure model for the anomalous electron transport is investigated. Five different operating conditions of the H9 magnetically shielded Hall thruster are simulated with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Hall2De. In order to capture the inherent uncertainty associated with the closure model, O(100) simulations are run for each condition, each of using a coefficient set sampled randomly from a probability distribution. The results of these simulations provide probabilistic predictions of thruster performance quantities including thrust, and discharge current, as well as several component efficiencies and centerline plasma properties. The model is found to yield converged solutions at all conditions, with large 10 kHzrange oscillations and performance trends with voltage and flow rate similar to experiment. The model under-predicts the thrust by 15-25% and over-predicts the discharge current by 20% on average compared to experiments at the same discharge voltage and mass flow rate. This performance discrepancy is due to lower beam utilization, mass utilization, and divergence efficiency than experiment, resulting from high Hall parameters in the acceleration region, which lead to a protracted ion acceleration region. The physical processes underlying this result are discussed in the context of future data-driven modeling efforts.

Jorns, Benjamin A.↗

4.4 Development of a 30-Year Soil Moisture Climatology for Situational Awareness and Public Health Applications

This paper provided a brief background on the work being done at NASA SPoRT and the CDC to create a soil moisture climatology over the CONUS at high spatial resolution, and to provide a valuable source of soil moisture information to the CDC for monitoring conditions that could favor the development of Valley Fever. The soil moisture climatology has multi-faceted applications for both the NOAA/NWS situational awareness in the areas of drought and flooding, and for the Public Health community. SPoRT plans to increase its interaction with the drought monitoring and Public Health communities by enhancing this testbed soil moisture anomaly product. This soil moisture climatology run will also serve as a foundation for upgrading the real-time (currently southeastern CONUS) SPoRT-LIS to a full CONUS domain based on LIS version 7 and incorporating real-time GVF data from the Suomi-NPP Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (Vargas et al. 2013) into LIS-Noah. The upgraded SPoRT-LIS run will serve as a testbed proof-of-concept of a higher-resolution NLDAS-2 modeling member. The climatology run will be extended to near real-time using the NLDAS-2 meteorological forcing from 2011 to present. The fixed 1981-2010 climatology shall provide the soil moisture "normals" for the production of real-time soil moisture anomalies. SPoRT also envisions a web-mapping type of service in which an end-user could put in a request for either an historical or real-time soil moisture anomaly graph for a specified county (as exemplified by Figure 2) and/or for local and regional maps of soil moisture proxy percentiles. Finally, SPoRT seeks to assimilate satellite soil moisture data from the current Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS; Blankenship et al. 2014) and the recently-launched NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP; Entekhabi et al. 2010) missions, using the EnKF capability within LIS. The 9-km combined active radar and passive microwave retrieval product from SMAP (Das et al. 2011) has the potential to provide valuable information about the near-surface soil moisture state for improving land surface modeling output.

land surface modeling↗

Trajectory Engineering with Modular Patched Conics for Entry Systems and TPS (TEMPEST)

Brief Presenter Biography (35 word limit): Bohdan Wesely is an Aerospace Engineer in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at Ames. He has worked on a variety of projects for NASA including integrated TPS (thermal protection system) flight hardware deliveries and testing services for commercial partners. Introduction: TEMPEST is a new trajectory analysis framework that is designed to fill the gap between dedicated flight mechanics tools and aerothermal and TPS sizing tools. The project started as an SJSU master’s thesis and has since evolved into a general conceptual design tool capable of studying a wide variety of entry problems. Development is ongoing in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at NASA ARC. Why TEMPEST: Space missions involving entry into a planetary atmosphere involve a series of unique requirements across multiple disciplines. Whether it is traditional entry descent and landing (EDL), or aerocapture, the vehicle must navigate to its target landing location or orbit state, and the TPS must protect the payload during entry. The design process typically involves iterative handoffs between various flight mechanics, flow solver, and material response level tools. During the early conceptual phase, a wide variety of feasible trajectories are simulated in a Monte Carlo scenario which broadly satisfy the mission or landing requirements. Next, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC), and other flow solver analyses are performed at various key trajectory points to generate an aero-database, heating and TPS design requirements also emerge at this stage. At this point, with updated aerodynamics from the various flow solvers, trajectories can be re-run, this in turn can change the required freestream conditions for the CFD tools, and as a project progresses, these analyses converge, and uncertainty is reduced. However, there is always a “hand-off” occurring between two inherently coupled phenomena. Analysis Description: One of the goals with TEMPEST is to use a variety of first principles estimation methods coupled with an atmosphere model to predict vehicle aerothermodynamics across the entire flight regime while propagating a 3 or 6 degree of freedom (DoF) trajectory. Aerodynamics methods include modified Newtonian, Maxwell and Cercignani- Lampis-Lord (CLL) for continuum, transitional, and free molecular flow regimes. Aerothermodynamics include boundary layer and reference enthalpy methods, and Mutation++ for non-equilibrium chemistry modeling. TEMPEST is also capable of stitching multiple trajectory segments together to study mission scenarios like multi-pass aerocapture and aero-gravity assists. Most of the program is implemented in MATLAB using modern system objects, it relies on several C++ shared libraries for supporting tools like Gmsh, the Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM), and Mutation++. The various first principles aerothermal estimation methods are discretized across either a structured axisymmetric panel mesh or an unstructured tri-mesh generated from an open-source tool such as Gmsh, this allows solutions on the same mesh to be compared across tools such as CB-Aero. CFD Coupling. A physics-aware, gaussian process CFD anchoring scheme is proposed to adjust the various first principles methods as a CFD database is populated. One goal for this anchoring module is to inform the project where CFD should be run. Full knowledge of the entire trajectory, atmosphere, and aerothermodynamics allows for easier identification of high sensitivity areas and uncertainty quantification. While the first principles effects are well known and proven accurate in existing tools such as CB- Aero and Cart3D, a physics aware CFD anchoring scheme increases tool credibility across a project lifecycle. Material Response Modeling. Correct TPS sizing is critical for optimizing mass for science payloads and ensuring mission success. The process typically involves a thermal analysis along the trajectory with surface heating environments as a boundary condition. Several design constraints are maximum bondline temperature and maximum recession with various margining techniques. The material response tool FIAT, developed out of NASA Ames, is currently being integrated into the TEMPEST environment. TPS recession, shape change, mass loss, and mass property alteration are all factors that can perturb an entry trajectory. For missions like Mars 2020, recession was minimal and was safely handled separately as a post process. For missions such as Jupiter Galileo with a high TPS mass fraction or asteroid entries, recession plays a major role. The proposed fully coupled scheme is to use an epoch-based approach where the trajectory integration is halted after a recession threshold, the energy balance and FIAT are solved at each panel, the mesh, aerodynamics, and mass properties are updated, and the trajectory continues. Several computational tradeoffs have been made during the development of TEMPEST to limit the cost of a single trajectory and preserve its utility as a conceptual, rapid iteration tool. Conclusion: Development of TEMPEST is ongoing and the project is still in its infancy. This talk aims to showcase its unique capabilities to support future NASA entry systems missions.

Bohdan O Wesely↗

Potential Flow Analysis of Dynamic Ground Effect

Interpretation of some flight test data suggests the presence of a 'dynamic ground effect'. The lift of an aircraft approaching the ground depends on the rate of descent and is lower than the aircraft steady state lift at a same height above the ground. Such a lift deficiency under dynamic conditions could have a serious impact on the overall aircraft layout. For example, the increased pitch angle needed to compensate for the temporary loss in lift would reduce the tail strike margin or require an increase in landing gear length. Under HSR2 an effort is under way to clarify the dynamic ground effect issue using a multi-pronged approach. A dynamic ground effect test has been run in the NASA Langley 14x22 ft wind tunnel. Northup-Grumman is conducting time accurate CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) Euler analyses on the National Aerodynamic Simulator facility. Boeing has been using linear potential flow methodology which are thought to provide much needed insight in, physics of this very complex problem. The present report summarizes the results of these potential flow studies.

W. M. Feifel↗

Curiosity's Autonomous Surface Safing Behavior Design

The safing routines on all robotic deep-space vehicles are designed to put the vehicle in a power and thermally safe configuration, enabling communication with the mission operators on Earth. Achieving this goal is made a little more difficult on Curiosity because the power requirements for the core avionics and the telecommunication equipment exceed the capability of the single power source, the Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator. This drove the system design to create an operational mode, called "sleep mode", where the vehicle turns off most of the loads in order to charge the two Li-ion batteries. The system must keep the vehicle safe from over-heat and under-heat conditions, battery cell failures, under-voltage conditions, and clock failures, both while the computer is running and while the system is sleeping. The other goal of a safing routine is to communicate. On most spacecraft, this simply involves turning on the receiver and transmitter continuously. For Curiosity, Earth is above the horizon only a part of the day for direct communication to the Earth, and the orbiter overpass opportunities only occur a few times a day. The design must robustly place the Rover in a communicable condition at the correct time. This paper discusses Curiosity's autonomous safing behavior and describes how the vehicle remains power and thermally safe while sleeping, as well as a description of how the Rover communicates with the orbiters and Earth at specific times.

MSL↗

Metal/Silicate Partitioning at High Pressures and Temperatures

The behavior of siderophile elements during metal-silicate segregation, and their resulting distributions provide insight into core formation processes. Determination of partition coefficients allows the calculation of element distributions that can be compared to established values of element abundances in the silicate (mantle) and metallic (core) portions of the Earth. Moderately siderophile elements, including W, are particularly useful in constraining core formation conditions because they are sensitive to variations in T, P, oxygen fugacity (fO2), and silicate composition. To constrain the effect of pressure on W metal/silicate partitioning, we performed experiments at high pressures and temperatures using a multi anvil press (MAP) at NASA Johnson Space Center and laser-heated diamond anvil cells (LHDAC) at the University of Maryland. Starting materials consisted of natural peridotite mixed with Fe and W metals. Pressure conditions in the MAP experiments ranged from 10 to 16 GPa at 2400 K. Pressures in the LHDAC experiments ranged from 26 to 58 GPa, and peak temperatures ranged up to 5000 K. LHDAC experimental run products were sectioned by focused ion beam (FIB) at NASA JSC. Run products were analyzed by electron microprobe using wavelength dispersive spectroscopy. Liquid metal/liquid silicate partition coefficients for W were calculated from element abundances determined by microprobe analyses, and corrected to a common fO2 condition of IW-2 assuming +4 valence for W. Within analytical uncertainties, W partitioning shows a flat trend with increasing pressure from 10 to 16 GPa. At higher pressures, W becomes more siderophile, with an increase in partition coefficient of approximately 0.5 log units.

Shofner, G.↗

Highly Reducing Partitioning Experiments Relevant to the Planet Mercury

With the data returned from the MErcury Surface Space ENvironment GEochemistry and Ranging (MESSENGER) mission, there are now numerous constraints on the physical and chemical properties of Mercury, including its surface composition. The high S and low FeO contents observed from MESSENGER on the planet's surface suggests a low oxygen fugacity of the present planetary materials. Estimates of the oxygen fugacity for Mercurian magmas are approximately 3-7 log units below the Iron-Wüstite (Fe-FeO) oxygen buffer, several orders of magnitude more reducing than other terrestrial bodies we have data from such as the Earth, Moon, or Mars. Most of our understanding of elemental partitioning behavior comes from observations made on terrestrial rocks, but Mercury's oxygen fugacity is far outside the conditions of those samples. With limited oxygen available, lithophile elements may instead exhibit chalcophile, halophile, or siderophile behaviors. Furthermore, very few natural samples of rocks that formed under reducing conditions are available in our collections (e.g., enstatite chondrites, achondrites, aubrites). With this limited amount of material, we must perform experiments to determine the elemental partitioning behavior of typically lithophile elements as a function of decreasing oxygen fugacity. Experiments are being conducted at 4 GPa in an 880-ton multi-anvil press, at temperatures up to 1850degC. The composition of starting materials for the experiments were selected for the final run products to contain metal, silicate melt, and sulfide melt phases. Oxygen fugacity is controlled in the experiments by adding silicon metal to the samples, using the Si-SiO2 oxygen buffer, which is approximately 5 log units more reducing than the Fe-FeO oxygen buffer at our temperatures of interest. The target silicate melt compositional is diopside (CaMgSi2O6) because measured surface compositions indicate partial melting of a pyroxene-rich mantle. Elements detected on Mercury's surface by MESSENGER (K, Na, Fe, Ti, Cl, Al, Cr, Mn, U, Th) and other geochemically relevant elements (P, F, H, N, C, Co, Ni, Mo, Ce, Nd, Sm, Eu, Gd, Dy, Yb) are added to the starting composition at trace abundances (approximately 500 ppm) so that they are close enough to infinite dilution to follow Henry's law of trace elements, and their partitioning behavior can be measured between the metal, silicate, and sulfide phases. The results of these experiments will allow us to assess the thermal and magmatic evolution of the planet Mercury from a geochemical standpoint.

Rowland, Rick, II↗

Multi-Body Analysis of the 1/5 Scale Wind Tunnel Model of the V-22 Tiltrotor

The paper presents a multi-body analysis of the 1/5 scale wind tunnel model of the V-22 tiltrotor, the Wing and Rotor Aeroelastic Testing System (WRATS), currently tested at NASA Langley Research Center. An original multi-body formulation has been developed at the Dipartimento di Ingegneria Aerospaziale of the Politecnico di Milano, Italy. It is based on the direct writing of the equilibrium equations of independent rigid bodies, connected by kinematic constraints that result in the addition of algebraic constraint equations, and by dynamic constraints, that directly contribute to the equilibrium equations. The formulation has been extended to the simultaneous solution of interdisciplinary problems by modeling electric and hydraulic networks, for aeroservoelastic problems. The code has been tailored to the modeling of rotorcrafts while preserving a complete generality. A family of aerodynamic elements has been introduced to model high aspect aerodynamic surfaces, based on the strip theory, with quasi-steady aerodynamic coefficients, compressibility, post-stall interpolation of experimental data, dynamic stall modeling, and radial flow drag. Different models for the induced velocity of the rotor can be used, from uniform velocity to dynamic in flow. A complete dynamic and aeroelastic analysis of the model of the V-22 tiltrotor has been performed, to assess the validity of the formulation and to exploit the unique features of multi-body analysis with respect to conventional comprehensive rotorcraft codes; These are the ability to model the exact kinematics of mechanical systems, and the possibility to simulate unusual maneuvers and unusual flight conditions, that are particular to the tiltrotor, e.g. the conversion maneuver. A complete modal validation of the analytical model has been performed, to assess the ability to reproduce the correct dynamics of the system with a relatively coarse beam model of the semispan wing, pylon and rotor. Particular care has been used to model the kinematics of the gimbal joint, that characterizes the rotor hub, and of the control system, consisting in the entire swashplate mechanism. The kinematics of the fixed and the rotating plates have been modeled, with variable length control links used to input the controls, the rotating flexible links, the pitch horns and the pitch bearings. The investigations took advantage of concurring wind tunnel test runs, that were performed in August 1998, and allowed the acquisition of data specific to the multi-body analysis.

Ghiringhelli, G. L.↗

NASA's NMME-Based S2S Hydrologic Forecast System for Food Insecurity Early Warning in Southern Africa

In situ hydrologic monitoring over regions most susceptible to food insecurity can be a challenge in current times due to various socio-economic and political issues in combination with environmental factors such as ongoing famine or drought. Hydrologic monitoring and initializing forecasts based on remotely sensed and analyzed data can contribute significantly to early warning in such regions. Routine hydrologic forecasts, as provided by NASA’s Hydrologic Forecasting and Analysis System (NHyFAS), are a recent addition to early warning systems. A custom instance of NHyFAS, termed FLDAS-Forecast, is used by FEWS NET’s Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS). The FLDAS-Forecast’s dynamic forecasting component was originally set up with Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) forecast inputs and has been recently expanded with precipitation forecast forcing from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). This paper describes the improvements in seasonal hydrologic forecasts produced with this updated system. Evaluations in this study focus on soil moisture across southern Africa’s growing season. Soil moisture forecasts are benchmarked and evaluated relative to climatology-based forecasts and historic runs, which are driven by observation-based meteorological forcing fields, and they are verified with remotely sensed observations of soil moisture and vegetation. Through multiple deterministic and probabilistic skill assessments, we show that using the larger ensemble of NMME precipitation inputs in the forecast system results in higher quality hydrologic forecasts than are allowed by climatology- or GEOS-only-based forecasts. Further, the near-real-time NMME-based rootzone soil moisture forecasts were able to correctly predict developing drought conditions over southern Africa through late 2019 and into early 2020.

Hydrologic forecasts↗

Desert Research and Technology Studies (RATS) Local and Remote Test Sites

Desert RATS (Research and Technology Studies) is a combined group of inter-NASA center scientists and engineers, collaborating with representatives of industry and academia, for the purpose of conducting remote field exercises. These exercises provide the capability to validate experimental hardware and software, to evaluate and develop mission operational techniques, and to identify and establish technical requirements applicable for future planetary exploration. D-RATS completed its ninth year of field testing in September 2006. Dry run test activities prior to testing at designated remote field site locations are initially conducted at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) Remote Field Demonstration Test Site. This is a multi-acre external test site located at JSC and has detailed representative terrain features simulating both Lunar and Mars surface characteristics. The majority of the remote field tests have been subsequently conducted in various high desert areas adjacent to Flagstaff, Arizona. Both the local JSC and remote field test sites have terrain conditions that are representative of both the Moon and Mars, such as strewn rock and volcanic ash fields, meteorite crater ejecta blankets, rolling plains, hills, gullies, slopes, and outcrops. Flagstaff is the preferred remote test site location for many reasons. First, there are nine potential test sites with representative terrain features within a 75-mile radius. Second, Flagstaff is the location of the United States Geologic Survey (USGS)/Astrogeology Branch, which historically supported Apollo astronaut geologic training and currently supports and provides host accommodations to the D-RATS team. Finally, in considering the importance of logistics in regard to providing the necessary level of support capabilities, the Flagstaff area provides substantial logistics support and lodging accommodations to take care of team members during long hours of field operations.

Janoiko, Barbara↗

Decadal Prediction Skill in the GEOS-5 Forecast System

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office?s GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). The hindcasts are initialized every December from 1959 to 2010 following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multi-variate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from the atmospheric reanalysis (MERRA, the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) generated using the GEOS-5 atmospheric model. The forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble mean is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but forced with observed CO2. The results show that initialization acts to increase the forecast skill of Northern Atlantic SST compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. The annual-mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) index is predictable up to a 5-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the Northern Atlantic. While the skill measured by Mean Squared Skill Score (MSSS) shows 50% improvement up to 10-year lead forecast over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, however, prediction skill is relatively low in the subpolar gyre, due in part to the fact that the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region appears to be unrealistic. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.

Ham, Yoo-Geun↗

Impact and Crashworthiness Characteristics of Venera Type Landers for Future Venus Missions

In this paper an in-depth investigation of the structural design of the Venera 9-14 landers is explored. A complete reverse engineering of the Venera lander was required. The lander was broken down into its fundamental components and analyzed. This provided in-sights into the hidden features of the design. A trade study was performed to find the sensitivity of the lander's overall mass to the variation of several key parameters. For the lander's legs, the location, length, configuration, and number are all parameterized. The size of the impact ring, the radius of the drag plate, and other design features are also parameterized, and all of these features were correlated to the change of mass of the lander. A multi-fidelity design tool used for further investigation of the parameterized lander was developed. As a design was passed down from one level to the next, the fidelity, complexity, accuracy, and run time of the model increased. The low-fidelity model was a highly nonlinear analytical model developed to rapidly predict the mass of each design. The medium and high fidelity models utilized an explicit finite element framework to investigate the performance of various landers upon impact with the surface under a range of landing conditions. This methodology allowed for a large variety of designs to be investigated by the analytical model, which identified designs with the optimum structural mass to payload ratio. As promising designs emerged, investigations in the following higher fidelity models were focused on establishing their reliability and crashworthiness. The developed design tool efficiently modelled and tested the best concepts for any scenario based on critical Venusian mission requirements and constraints. Through this program, the strengths and weaknesses inherent in the Venera-Type landers were thoroughly investigated. Key features identified for the design of robust landers will be used as foundations for the development of the next generation of landers for future exploration missions to Venus.

Schroeder, Kevin↗

Assessing the Behavior of Typically Lithophile Elements Under Highly Reducing Conditions Relevant to the Planet Mercury

With the data returned from the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (lvtESSENGER) mission, there are now numerous constraints on the physical and chemical properties of Mercury, including its surface composition. The high S and low FeO contents observed from MESSENGER suggest a low oxygen fugacity of the present materials on the planet's surface. Most of our understanding of elemental partitioning behavior comes from observations made on terrestrial rocks, but Mercury's oxygen fugacity is far outside the conditions of those samples, estimated at approximately 3-7 log units below the Iron-Wustite (lW) oxygen buffer, several orders of magnitude more reducing than other terrestrial bodies we have data from. With limited oxygen available, lithophile elements may instead exhibit chalcophile, halophile, or siderophile behaviors. Furthermore, very few natural samples of rocks that formed under reducing conditions (e.g., enstatite chondrites, achondrites, aubrites) are available in our collections for examination of this change in geochemical affinity. Our goal is to determine the elemental partitioning behavior of typically lithophile elements at lower oxygen fugacity as a function of temperature and pressure. Experiments were conducted at I GPa in a 13 mm QUICKpress piston cylinder and at 4 GPa in an 880-ton multi-anvil press, at temperatures up to 1850 C. The composition of starting materials for the experiments were designed so the final run products contained metal, silicate melt, and sulfide melt phases. Oxygen fugacity was controlled in the experiments by adding silicon metal to the samples, in order to utilize the Si-Si02 buffer, which is approx. 5 log units more reducing than the IW buffer at our temperatures of interest. The target silicate melt composition was diopside (CaMgSi206) because measured surface compositions indicate partial melting of a pyroxene-rich mantle. The results of our experiments will aid in our understanding of the fate of elements during the differentiation and thermal evolution of Mercury and other highly reducing planetary bodies.

Rowland, Rick, II↗