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DOE OSTI2025

Computational Fluid Dynamics-Based Modeling of Methane Flows Around Oil and Gas Equipment

Recent studies estimate that emissions from oil and gas production facilities contribute between 20 and 50% of the total methane ( CH 4 ) emitted in the US; therefore, quantifying and reducing these emissions are crucial for achieving climate goals. Methane quantification depends on both measuring methane concentrations and converting them to emissions through a modeling framework. Currently, simple atmospheric dispersion models are primarily used to quantify emissions and concentrations, but these estimates are highly uncertain when quantifying emissions from complex aerodynamic sources, such as oil and gas facilities. This investigation used a CFD modeling approach, which can account for aerodynamic complexity but has hitherto not been used to model methane concentrations downwind of a methane release of a known rate, and compared it against in situ measurements. High-time-resolution (1 Hz) methane concentration and meteorological data were measured during experiments conducted at the METEC on 21 March and 11 July 2024. The METEC site configuration, measured wind data, and controlled emission rates were used as input for the CONVERGE CFD model to model downwind CH 4 concentration. The modeling was carried out between 20 and 70 m, from two different points of release in two separate controlled-release experiments, one from a separator and another from a wellhead. In these experiments, we found that the CFD model could predict the CH 4 concentrations downwind of the release to a good degree. The model was evaluated on multiple metrics to assess its performance in estimating methane concentrations at typical fence line distances (∼30 m). These results help us to understand external flows and the ability of CFD models to predict downwind concentrations in aerodynamically complex environments.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2024

LandScan Global 2023: Silver Edition

For a quarter of a century, the LandScan Global (LSG) project has annually released a global, high-resolution gridded population dataset representing the ambient or unwarned population at a 30 arcsecond resolution. LSG supports a range of applications such as emergency management, disaster response, and human health and security for understanding populations at risk. The 2023 release of LSG, the LandScan Silver Edition, represents a major methodological leap forward while also leveraging previous knowledge—the previous year was the baseline for the current annual update carrying forward valuable knowledge of the built environment for the past quarter century—to train the machine learning models. Compared with annual releases over the past 24years, multiple advancements were made to different aspects of the methodology to achieve reproducibility, transparency, and consistent global propagation of solutions to modeling or population distribution issues identified during the review process. These novel changes include incorporation of the latest available geospatial inputs across the globe, machine learning models instead of manual modifications, population feature importance analysis, open-source solutions vs. proprietary software, generation of multiple global versions, analytic validations, and human-in-the-loop revisions to produce the final version. Additionally, algorithms—such as anomaly detection—were introduced to quickly identify areas of focus to develop a new and robust systematic review. Significant changes in modeled population distributions were observed between the 2022 and 2023 releases, largely attributable to improvements in data and methods and discussed thoroughly within this report. In summation, the LandScan Silver Edition leverages the best of the past quarter century of LSG legacy knowledge and continues a tradition of applying cutting-edge enhancements to serve as a new benchmark for accurate, actionable gridded population data

Lebakula, Viswadeep↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for: A hybrid biophysical-machine learning framework for diurnal surface energy flux estimation using proximal sensing

Thermal-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal datasets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for specific surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of an ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81-0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46-0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical – machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

Agricultural Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2026

RHOD Site - NOAA PSL Wind Retrievals WINDoe / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily NetCDF files with horizontal wind profiles retrieved with the WINDoe retrieval (Gebauer and Bell 2024) at Rhode Island (RHOD). WINDoe retrievals datasets are also available at Nantucket Island (NANT, nant.windoe.z01.c1) and Block Island (BLOC, bloc.windoe.z01.c1). WINDoe is an optimal estimation algorithm to retrieve wind profiles combining multiple instruments. The code is available in this github repository (https://github.com/OAR-atmospheric-observations/WINDoe/tree/main) and the retrieval is described by Gebauer and Bell (2024). WINDoe allows combining the individual datasets and outputs into one profile taking into account the information and uncertainties of each dataset. The use of WINDoe minimizes data gaps and maximizes data availability, compared to using wind profiles from only one of the instruments. The regular height grid eases comparisons to numerical weather prediction models. Code modifications have been made that include reading in WFIP3 specific instruments, averaging Doppler lidar radial velocities at various azimuth angles to avoid overfitting, and allowing the user to define a height grid by the user in the vipfile. The instruments used as input to the retrieval are a radar wind profiler (low- and high resolution mode) providing data in and above the boundary layer, a scanning Doppler lidar usually providing data throughout the boundary layer, a profiling lidar providing data from 50 to 200 m at BLOC and NANT, and from 10 to 280 m at Rhode Island, and a surface tower (4 m at NANT and RHOD and 10 m at BLOC). From the scanning lidars, we used radial velocity measurements at 60 deg elevation angle at six different azimuth angles with a resolution of approximately 30 m along the line of sight and the lowest range gate at approximately 70 m. The wind profiles are retrieved with WINDoe up to 3.74 km with 10 m vertical resolution. The profiles are retrieved every 15 min at BLOC and NANT and every 60 min at RHOD.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

BLOC Site - NOAA PSL Wind Retrievals WINDoe / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily netcdf files with horizontal wind profiles retrieved with the WINDoe retrieval (Gebauer and Bell 2024) at Block Island (BLOC). WINDoe retrievals datasets are also available at Nantucket Island (NANT, nant.windoe.z01.c1) and Rhode Island (RHOD, rhod.windoe.z01.c1). WINDoe is an optimal estimation algorithm to retrieve wind profiles combining multiple instruments. The code is available in this github repository (https://github.com/OAR-atmospheric-observations/WINDoe/tree/main), and the retrieval is described by Gebauer and Bell (2024). WINDoe allows combining the individual datasets and outputs into one profile taking into account the information and uncertainties of each dataset. The use of WINDoe minimizes data gaps and maximizes data availability, compared to using wind profiles from only one of the instruments. The regular height grid eases comparisons to numerical weather prediction models. Code modifications have been made that include reading in WFIP3 specific instruments, averaging Doppler lidar radial velocities at various azimuth angles to avoid overfitting, and allowing the user to define a height grid by the user in the vipfile. The instruments used as input to the retrieval are a radar wind profiler (low- and high resolution mode) providing data in and above the boundary layer, a scanning Doppler lidar usually providing data throughout the boundary layer, a profiling lidar providing data from 50 to 200 m at BLOC and NANT, and from 10 to 280 m at Rhode Island, and a surface tower (4 m at NANT and RHOD and 10 m at BLOC). From the scanning lidars, we used radial velocity measurements at 60 deg elevation angle at six different azimuth angles with a resolution of approximately 30 m along the line of sight and the lowest range gate at approximately 70 m. The wind profiles are retrieved with WINDoe up to 3.74 km with 10 m vertical resolution. The profiles are retrieved every 15 min at BLOC and NANT and every 60 min at RHOD.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

NANT Site - NOAA PSL Wind Retrievals WINDoe / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily NetCDF files with horizontal wind profiles retrieved with the WINDoe retrieval (Gebauer and Bell 2024) at Nantucket Island (NANT). WINDoe retrievals datasets are also available at Block Island (BLOC, bloc.windoe.z01.c1) and Rhode Island (RHOD, rhod.windoe.z01.c1). WINDoe is an optimal estimation algorithm to retrieve wind profiles combining multiple instruments. The code is available in this github repository (https://github.com/OAR-atmospheric-observations/WINDoe/tree/main), and the retrieval is described by Gebauer and Bell (2024). WINDoe allows combining the individual datasets and outputs into one profile taking into account the information and uncertainties of each dataset. The use of WINDoe minimizes data gaps and maximizes data availability, compared to using wind profiles from only one of the instruments. The regular height grid eases comparisons to numerical weather prediction models. Code modifications have been made that include reading in WFIP3 specific instruments, averaging Doppler lidar radial velocities at various azimuth angles to avoid overfitting, and allowing the user to define a height grid by the user in the vipfile. The instruments used as input to the retrieval are a radar wind profiler (low- and high resolution mode) providing data in and above the boundary layer, a scanning Doppler lidar usually providing data throughout the boundary layer, a profiling lidar providing data from 50 to 200 m at BLOC and NANT, and from 10 to 280 m at Rhode Island, and a surface tower (4 m at NANT and RHOD and 10 m at BLOC). From the scanning lidars, we used radial velocity measurements at 60 deg elevation angle at six different azimuth angles with a resolution of approximately 30 m along the line of sight and the lowest range gate at approximately 70 m. The wind profiles are retrieved with WINDoe up to 3.74 km with 10 m vertical resolution. The profiles are retrieved every 15 min at BLOC and NANT and every 60 min at RHOD.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Hybrid Biophysical‐Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy ( LE ) and sensible heat ( H ) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R 2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R 2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

evapotranspiration↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of a 95-Year Solar Dataset for Resource Adequacy Studies

Long-term high-resolution solar data provides enhanced understanding of variability of solar generation and enhances our ability to develop strategies for a resilient and reliable electric grid under high deployment of solar energy. Therefore, it is important to develop long-term synthetic datasets that can provide multiple occurrences of various severe weather scenarios that are expected to test the limits of resource adequacy under scenarios contain various energy generation sources. Examples of such scenarios could be long periods of high temperatures when demand for electricity is high or periods where high winds could lead to a shut-down of transmission lines for long periods of time to ensure fire safety. NREL has developed the first version of such a dataset covering a 95-year period covering 2006-2100 at a 4km hourly resolution. This dataset contains all variables necessary to calculate solar generation. During development of this dataset, we focused on creating unbiased, high-resolution solar irradiance through statistical downscaling methods, using Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) as input. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) containing over 25 years of observations was used to calibrate the statistical downscaling models. This presentation will outline the primary steps in developing this dataset, including (1) regridding RCM data to a common grid at 20-km resolution, (2) correcting RCM biases with NSRDB, (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar and ancillary data. Additionally, we will present an evaluation of the downscaled data against the NSRDB across various zones in the CONUS. Lastly, we will present a user guide for accessing the datasets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Navigating the Noise: Bringing Clarity to ML Parameterization Design With O $\boldsymbol{\mathcal{O}}$(100) Ensembles

Abstract Machine‐learning (ML) parameterizations of subgrid processes (here of turbulence, convection, and radiation) may one day replace conventional parameterizations by emulating high‐resolution physics without the cost of explicit simulation. However, uncertainty about the relationship between offline and online performance (i.e., when integrated with a large‐scale general circulation model) hinders their development. Much of this uncertainty stems from limited sampling of the noisy, emergent effects of upstream ML design decisions on downstream online hybrid simulation. Our work rectifies the sampling issue via the construction of a semi‐automated, end‐to‐end pipeline for size ensembles of hybrid simulations, revealing important nuances in how systematic reductions in offline error manifest in changes to online error and online stability. For example, removing dropout and switching from a Mean Squared Error to a Mean Absolute Error loss both reduce offline error, but they have opposite effects on online error and online stability. Other design decisions, like incorporating memory, converting moisture input from specific humidity to relative humidity, using batch normalization, and training on multiple climates do not come with any such compromises. Finally, we show that ensemble sizes of may be necessary to reliably detect causally relevant differences online. By enabling rapid online experimentation at scale, we can empirically settle debates regarding subgrid ML parameterization design that would have otherwise remained unresolved in the noise.

Lin, Jerry [Department of Earth System Sciences Un↗

DOE OSTI2025

On the numerical sensitivity of cellular automata grain structure predictions to large thermal gradients and cooling rates

Cellular automata (CA) models of as-solidified grain structure, originally developed and applied to casting, have become a common means of predicting grain structure resulting from Additive Manufacturing (AM) processes. The majority of these models are based on the decentered octahedron approach, which attempts to correct for the effect of grid anisotropy on the prediction of competitive solidification of dendritic grains. However, AM solidification occurs under cooling rates ($\dot{T}$) and thermal gradients (G) that are orders of magnitude larger than those encountered in casting, and no systematic investigation on the effect of the CA model cell size (Δx) and time step (Δt) on AM microstructure predictions has been performed. Here, in this study, such an investigation is first performed via simulation of individual grains of various crystallographic orientations with a fixed, unidirectional G, showing that CA prediction of the steady-state undercooling matched the expected values based on the interfacial response function at small G and deviated from the expected values at large G. Simulation of competitive growth of multiple grains showed a weakening of the predicted texture as G and Δx became large. Simulation of solidification under AM conditions, where G and $\dot{T}$ vary spatially across the melt pools, showed that not only does grain selection weaken and deviate from expectations at large Δx, but grains with crystallographic $\langle$100$\rangle$ aligned with the grid directions are more adversely affected by the temperature field discontinuities than grains with other crystallographic orientations. Despite the fact that the exact grain competition results depended on Δt, the overall texture development was notably less sensitive to Δt than Δx, provided that a reasonable value of Δt is selected based on the ratio of Δx to the maximum local solidification velocity in the simulation domain. Finally, from the directional solidification and AM simulation results, an analysis of computational cost compared to simulation resolution is performed based on an equation derived to quantify the relatively inaccuracy in grain selection based on the model and temperature field inputs. From this analysis, it is concluded that there is a need for algorithmic improvements to improve CA grain competition accuracy for large G processing conditions as sufficiently small Δx to resolve the necessary competition is intractable for many AM processing conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Spectrograph stabilization using a single-delay interferometer on the Hale Telescope

We describe a technique for spectrograph stabilization useful when conventional mitigation techniques of vacuum tanks, thermal insulation, and laser frequency comb may be impractical, expensive, heavy, or bulky. This includes spectrographs on airborne platforms or mounted on telescopes where they suffer a changing gravity vector or other drifts. Placing a fixed-delay interferometer in series with a spectrograph forms an externally dispersed interferometer (EDI). This produces a uniform sinusoidal comb multiplying input spectrum, creating (through heterodyning) beats (moiré patterns). In Fourier space for low frequencies up to the comb frequency, the moiré generated signal counter-rotates to ordinary spectra under an unknown disperser wavenumber drift Δx. This generates a large negative feedback signal useful in a conceptual control loop, to converge rapidly to a stable spectrum and yield Δx. A modified EDI data analysis algorithm (“crossfading”) combines frequency-weighted moiré with conventional spectrum to cancel net output spectrum reaction to Δx. Needing only a single-delay, this is a practical improvement over prior crossfading analyses requiring multiple delays. We test crossfading on ThAr data near 4850 cm−1 taken on Hale telescope in an earlier project. In a single pass, we reduce drift 20 times. Using seven iterations, we reduce 0.5 cm−1 (31 km/s Doppler equivalent) drift to 4×10−7 cm−1 (2.5 cm/s). The interferometer delay can wander, because linearity of phase versus wavenumber interpolates science features between bracketing calibrating spectral references. Second, mathematically reversing the heterodyning effect doubles effective spectral resolution without changing disperser slit.

Erskine, David J [Lawrence Livermore National Labo↗

DOE OSTI2025

Best estimate of the planetary boundary layer height from multiple remote sensing measurements

Remote sensing measurements have been widely used to estimate the planetary boundary layer height (PBLHT). Each remote sensing approach offers unique strengths and faces different limitations. In this study, we use machine learning (ML) methods to produce a best-estimate PBLHT (PBLHT-BE-ML) by integrating four PBLHT estimates derived from remote sensing measurements at the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory. Three ML models – random forest (RF) classifier, RF regressor, and light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM) – were trained on a dataset from 2017 to 2023 that included radiosonde, various remote sensing PBLHT estimates, and atmospheric meteorological conditions. Evaluations indicated that PBLHT-BE-ML from all three models improved alignment with the PBLHT derived from radiosonde data (PBLHT-SONDE), with LightGBM demonstrating the highest accuracy under both stable and unstable boundary layer conditions. Feature analysis revealed that the most influential input features at the SGP site were the PBLHT estimates derived from (a) potential temperature profiles retrieved using Raman lidar (RL) and atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) measurements (PBLHT-THERMO), (b) vertical velocity variance profiles from Doppler lidar (PBLHT-DL), and (c) aerosol backscatter profiles from micropulse lidar (PBLHT-MPL). The trained models were then used to predict PBLHT-BE-ML at a temporal resolution of 10 min, effectively capturing the diurnal evolution of PBLHT and its significant seasonal variations, with the largest diurnal variation observed over summer at the SGP site. We applied these trained models to data from the ARM Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) field campaign (EPC), where the PBLHT-BE-ML, particularly with the LightGBM model, demonstrated improved accuracy against PBLHT-SONDE. Analyses of model performance at both the SGP and EPC sites suggest that expanding the training dataset to include various surface types, such as ocean and ice-covered areas, could further enhance ML model performance for PBLHT estimation across varied geographic regions.

Zhang, Damao [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2026

Forest aboveground biomass estimation through integration of sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 time series: assessing models trained on GEDI and field inventory benchmarks

Accurate and spatially explicit forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) mapping through remote sensing is critical for quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks and informing effective forest management strategies. However, AGB estimation in dense forests with complex terrain remains challenging due to satellite sensor signal saturation problem (saturation issue occurs in high biomass forests), structural complexity, and limited ground truth for calibration. This study presents a novel framework that integrates multi-temporal Sentinel-2 optical imagery, ALOS PALSAR-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and topographic variables with explainable Machine Learning to map AGB across mountainous forests within subtropical and temperate oceanic climate zones of Mexico. We evaluate the effects of temporal granularity and sensor synergy by comparing multiple temporal inputs and sensor configurations (Sentinel-2, PALSAR-2, and their fusion), and assess model performance using two reference datasets: NASA GEDI LiDAR-derived biomass and Mexico’s National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS). Our results showed that models trained on INFyS consistently outperformed those trained on GEDI, highlighting limitations in GEDI’s reliability in biomass estimates within this study region. Furthermore, the integration of Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 provided improved predictions compared to single-sensor models, particularly when combined with temporally explicit yearly statistics. The best-performing model, which was trained on INFyS data, and considered both Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 yearly statistics, as well as topographic variables, achieved an R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 51.10 Mg/ha, and relative RMSE (rRMSE) of 58.69%. Explainable ML analysis identified Sentinel-2 spectral indices and topographic features as key predictors, while PALSAR-2 metrics provided complementary information, partially mitigating saturation effects in high-biomass areas. Specifically, integrating both sensors substantially improved AGB estimation in high biomass forest (≥200 Mg/ha), yielding 98% gains over optical-only model, with resulting estimates exceeding GEDI L4B by 29% and ESA-CCI-BIOMASS by 174%. Terrain-stratified analysis indicated close agreement with GEDI in low-slope areas, with increasing divergence as slope steepness increased, while estimates remained consistently higher than ESA-CCI-BIOMASS across all slope classes. The proposed approach advances multi-sensor fusion and temporal feature engineering for AGB mapping using open-access satellite datasets, providing a scalable and reproducible framework for annual biomass monitoring in topographically complex mountainous forests. The resulting 25 m resolution biomass product has the potential to provide spatially detailed information for forest monitoring and may support applications in carbon accounting and forest management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗