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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Mapping the Potential for Eolian Surface Activity in Grasslands of the High Plains using Landsat Images

There are over 100,000 square kilometers of eolian sand dunes and sand sheets in the High Plains of the central United States. These land-forms may be unstable and may reactivate again as a result of land-use, climate change, or natural climatic variability. The main goal of this thesis was to develop a model that could be used to map an estimate of future dune activity. Multi-temporal calibrated Landsats 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and 7 Enhanced Thematic Map per Plus (ETM+) NDVI imagery were used in conjunction with the CENTURY vegetation model to correlate vegetation cover to climatic variability. This allows the creation of a predicted vegetation map which, combined with current wind and soil data, was used to create a potential sand transport map for range land in the High Plains under drought conditions.

Gutmann, Ethan Dain↗
NASA NTRS2017

Applications of VIC for Climate Land Cover Change Imapacts

Study focuses on the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), the LMB is an economically and ecologically important region: (1) One of the largest exporters of rice and fish products, (2) Within top three most biodiverse river basins in the world. Natural climate variability plays an important role in water supply within the region: (1) Short-term climate variability (ENSO, MJO), (2) Long-term climate variability (climate change). Projections of climate change show there will be a decrease in water availability world wide which has implications for food security and ecology. Additional studies show there may be socioeconomic turmoil due to water wars and food security in developing regions such as the Mekong Basin. Southeast Asia has experienced major changes in land use and land cover from 1980 – 2000. Major economic reforms resulting in shift from subsistence farming to market-based agricultural production. Changes in land cover continue to occur which have an important role within the land surface aspect of hydrology.

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2010

CLARREO Cornerstone of the Earth Observing System: Measuring Decadal Change Through Accurate Emitted Infrared and Reflected Solar Spectra and Radio Occultation

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is one of four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC Decadal Survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to provide accurate, broadly acknowledged climate records that are used to enable validated long-term climate projections that become the foundation for informed decisions on mitigation and adaptation policies that address the effects of climate change on society. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through rigorous SI traceable decadal change observations that are sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. These same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. For the first time CLARREO will make highly accurate, global, SI-traceable decadal change observations sensitive to the most critical, but least understood, climate forcings, responses, and feedbacks. The CLARREO breakthrough is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. The required accuracy levels are determined so that climate trend signals can be detected against a background of naturally occurring variability. Climate system natural variability therefore determines what level of accuracy is overkill, and what level is critical to obtain. In this sense, the CLARREO mission requirements are considered optimal from a science value perspective. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties associated with instrument calibration, satellite orbit sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most space missions, the CLARREO requirements are driven not by the instantaneous accuracy of the measurements, but by accuracy in the large time/space scale averages that are key to understanding decadal changes.

Sandford, Stephen P.↗
NASA NTRS1981

A stochastic-dynamical approach to the study of the natural variability of the climate

A method, suggested by Leith (1975), which employed stochastic-dynamic forecasts obtained from a general circulation model in such a way as to satisfy the definition of climatic noise, was used to validate assumptions accounting for the effects of external influences in estimating the climatic noise. Two assumptions were investigated: (1) that the weather fluctuations can be represented as a Markov process, and (2) that changing external conditions do not influence the atmosphere's statistical properties on short time scales. The general circulation model's simulation of the daily weather fluctuations was generated by performing integrations with prescribed climatological boundary conditions for random initial atmospheric states, with resulting dynamical forecasts providing an ensemble of simulated data for the autoregressive modeling of weather fluctuations. To estimate the climatic noise from the observational data (consisting of hourly values of sea level pressure and surface temperature at 54 U.S. stations for the month of January for the years 1949-1975) use of the short time-scale assumption is made. The simulated and observed data were found not to be consistent with either white noise or a Markov process of weather fluctuations. Good agreement was found between the results of the hypothetical testing of the simulated and the observed surface temperatures; and only partial support was found for the short time-scale assumption, i.e., for sea level pressure.

Straus, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Climate and the Global Famine of 1876-78

From 1875 to 1878, concurrent multiyear droughts in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, referred to as the Great Drought, caused widespread crop failures, catalyzing the so-called Global Famine, which had fatalities exceeding 50 million people and long-lasting societal consequences. Observations, paleoclimate reconstructions, and climate model simulations are used 1) to demonstrate the severity and characterize the evolution of drought across different regions, and 2) to investigate the underlying mechanisms driving its multiyear persistence. Severe or record-setting droughts occurred on continents in both hemispheres and in multiple seasons, with the "Monsoon Asia" region being the hardest hit, experiencing the single most intense and the second most expansive drought in the last 800 years. The extreme severity, duration, and extent of this global event is associated with an extraordinary combination of preceding cool tropical Pacific conditions (1870-76), a record-breaking El Nino (1877-78), a record strong Indian Ocean dipole (1877), and record warm North Atlantic Ocean (1878) conditions. Composites of historical analogs and two sets of ensemble simulations - one forced with global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and another forced with tropical Pacific SST - were used to distinguish the role of the extreme conditions in different ocean basins. While the drought in most regions was largely driven by the tropical Pacific SST conditions, an extreme positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole and warm North Atlantic SSTs, both likely aided by the strong El Nino in 1877-78, intensified and prolonged droughts in Australia and Brazil, respectively, and extended the impact to northern and southeastern Africa. Climatic conditions that caused the Great Drought and Global Famine arose from natural variability, and their recurrence, with hydrological impacts intensified by global warming, could again potentially undermine global food security.

multi-year drought↗
NASA NTRS2019

Climate Change Amplification of Natural Drought Variability: The Historic Mid-Twentieth Century North American Drought in a Warmer World

In the mid-twentieth century (1948-1957), North America experienced a severe drought forced by cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). If these SSTs recurred, it would likely cause another drought, but in a world substantially warmer than the one in which the original event took place. We use a 20-member ensemble of the GISS climate model to investigate the drought impacts of a repetition of the mid-twentieth century SST anomalies in a significantly warmer world. Using observed SSTs and mid-twentieth century forcings (Hist-DRGHT), the ensemble reproduces the observed precipitation deficits during the cold season (October–March) across the Southwest, Southern Plains, and Mexico and during the warm season (April–September) in the Southern Plains and the Southeast. Under analogous SST forcing and enhanced warming (Fut-DRGHT, ≈3 K above pre-industrial), cold season precipitation deficits are ameliorated in the Southwest and Southern Plains and intensified in the Southeast, while during the warm season precipitation deficits are enhanced across North America. This occurs primarily from greenhouse gas forced trends in mean precipitation, rather than changes in SST teleconnections. Cold season runoff deficits in Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified over the Southeast, but otherwise similar to Hist-DRGHT over the Southwest and Southern Plains. In the warm season, however, runoff and soil moisture deficits during Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified across the southern US, a consequence of enhanced precipitation deficits and increased evaporative losses due to warming. Our study highlights how internal variability and greenhouse gas forced trends in hydroclimate are likely to interact over North America, including how changes in both precipitation and evaporative demand will affect future drought.

Benjamin I Cook↗
NASA NTRS1999

Vegetation Interaction Enhances Interdecadal Climate Variability in the Sahel

The role of naturally varying vegetation in influencing the climate variability in the Sahel is explored in a coupled atmosphere-land-vegetation model. The Sahel rainfall variability is influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the oceans. Land-surface feedback is found to increase this variability both on interannual and interdecadal time scales. Interactive vegetation enhances the interdecadal variation significantly, but can reduce year to year variability due to a phase lag introduced by the relatively slow vegetation adjustment time. Variations in vegetation accompany the changes in rainfall, in particular, the multi-decadal drying trend from the 1950s to the 80s.

Zeng, Ning↗
NASA NTRS1984

Carbon monoxide in the earth's atmosphere - Increasing trend

The results of an analysis of more than 60,000 atmospheric measurements of carbon monoxide taken over 3-1/2 years at Cape Meares, Oregon (45 deg N, 125 deg W), indicate that the background concentration of this gas is increasing. The rate of increase, although uncertain, is about 6 percent per year on average. Human activities are the likely cause of a substantial portion of this observed increase; however, because of the short atmospheric lifetime of carbon monoxide and the relatively few years of observations, fluctuations of sources and sinks related to the natural variability of climate may have affected the observed trend. Increased carbon monoxide may deplete tropospheric hydroxyl radicals, slowing down the removal of dozens of man-made and anthropogenic trace gases and thus indirectly affecting the earth's climate and possibly the stratospheric ozone layer.

Khalil, M. A. K.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Precipitation Recycling

The water cycle regulates and reflects natural variability in climate at the regional and global scales. Large-scale human activities that involve changes in land cover, such as tropical deforestation, are likely to modify climate through changes in the water cycle. In order to understand, and hopefully be able to predict, the extent of these potential global and regional changes, we need first to understand how the water cycle works. In the past, most of the research in hydrology focused on the land branch of the water cycle, with little attention given to the atmospheric branch. The study of precipitation recycling which is defined as the contribution of local evaporation to local precipitation, aims at understanding hydrologic processes in the atmospheric branch of the water cycle. Simply stated, any study on precipitation recycling is about how the atmospheric branch of the water cycle works, namely, what happens to water vapor molecules after they evaporate from the surface, and where will they precipitate?

Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Assessing Progress Toward the Paris Climate Agreement From Space

Concentration monitoring with satellite observations of the “atmospheric stocks” of greenhouse gases offers ways to assess the impact of human activity, natural processes, climate variability, and their interaction beyond what is possible with emissions monitoring alone.

IPCC 2014↗
NASA NTRS2018

Pre-Aerosol, Clouds, and Ocean Ecosystem (PACE) Mission Science Definition Team Report: PACE Technical Report Series - Volume 2

We live in an era in which increasing climate variability is having measurable impact on marine ecosystems within our own lifespans. At the same time, an ever-growing human population requires increased access to and use of marine resources. To understand and be better prepared to respond to these challenges, we must expand our capabilities to investigate and monitor ecological and bio geo chemical processes in the oceans. In response to this imperative, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) conceived the Pre-Aerosol, Clouds, and ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission to provide new information for understanding the living ocean and for improving forecasts of Earth System variability. The PACE mission will achieve these objectives by making global ocean color measurements that are essential for understanding the carbon cycle and its inter-relationship with climate change, and by expanding our understanding about ocean ecology and biogeochemistry. PACE measurements will also extend ocean climate data records collected since the 1990s to document changes in the function of aquatic ecosystems as they respond to human activities and natural processes over short and long periods of time. These measurements are pivotal for differentiating natural variability from anthropogenic climate change effects and for understanding the interactions between these processes and various human uses of the ocean. PACE ocean science goals and measurement capabilities greatly exceed those of our heritage ocean color sensors, and are needed to address the many outstanding science questions developed by the oceanographic community over the past 40 years.

Cetinic, Ivona↗
NASA NTRS2002

Quantifying Fractional Ground Cover on the Climate Sensitive High Plains Using AVIRIS and Landsat TM Data

The High Plains is an economically important and climatologically sensitive region of the United States and Canada. The High Plains contain 100,000 sq km of Holocene sand dunes and sand sheets that are currently stabilized by natural vegetation. Droughts and the larger threat of global warming are climate phenomena that could cause depletion of natural vegetation and make this region susceptible to sand dune reactivation. This thesis is part of a larger study that is assessing the effect of climate variability on the natural vegetation that covers the High Plains using Landsat 5 and Landsat 7 data. The question this thesis addresses is how can fractional vegetation cover be mapped with the Landsat instruments using linear spectral mixture analysis and to what accuracy. The method discussed in this thesis made use of a high spatial and spectral resolution sensor called AVIRIS (Airborne Visible and Infrared Imaging Spectrometer) and field measurements to test vegetation mapping in three Landsat 7 sub-scenes. Near-simultaneous AVIRIS images near Ft. Morgan, Colorado and near Logan, New Mexico were acquired on July 10, 1999 and September 30, 1999, respectively. The AVIRIS flights preceded Landsat 7 overpasses by approximately one hour. These data provided the opportunity to test spectral mixture algorithms with AVIRIS and to use these data to constrain the multispectral mixed pixels of Landsat 7. The comparisons of mixture analysis between the two instruments showed that AVIRIS endmembers can be used to unmix Landsat 7 data with good estimates of soil cover, and reasonable estimates of non-photosynthetic vegetation and green vegetation. Landsat 7 derived image endmembers correlate with AVIRIS fractions, but the error is relatively large and does not give a precise estimate of cover.

Warner, Amanda Susan↗
NASA NTRS2000

Science Writers' Guide to TERRA

The launch of NASA's Terra spacecraft marks a new era of comprehensive monitoring of the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and continents from a single space-based platform. Data from the five Terra instruments will create continuous, long-term records of the state of the land, oceans, and atmosphere. Together with data from other satellite systems launched by NASA and other countries, Terra will inaugurate a new self-consistent data record that will be gathered over the next 15 years. The science objectives of NASAs Earth Observing System (EOS) program are to provide global observations and scientific understanding of land cover change and global productivity, climate variability and change, natural hazards, and atmospheric ozone. Observations by the Terra instruments will: provide the first global and seasonal measurements of the Earth system, including such critical functions as biological productivity of the land and oceans, snow and ice, surface temperature, clouds, water vapor, and land cover; improve our ability to detect human impacts on the Earth system and climate, identify the "fingerprint" of human activity on climate, and predict climate change by using the new global observations in climate models; help develop technologies for disaster prediction, characterization, and risk reduction from wildfires, volcanoes, floods, and droughts, and start long-term monitoring of global climate change and environmental change.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1988

Intraseasonal and interannual variations of tropical convection - A possible link between the 40-50 day oscillation and ENSO?

Twelve-years of NOAA data on outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) are used to trace intraseasonal variations of tropical convection by examining the spatial patterns of OLR variance in the 1-5 day, 20-70 day, and longer-than-180 day bands separately for the northern summer and winter. Based on these patterns, the relative importance of these bands are evaluated and the natural variability of the climate signal and the geographical distribution of potential predictability is assessed. The results of empirical orthogonal functional analyses show that multiple time scales exist in the most dominant patterns of tropical convection variation. These time scales can be identified with those of the 40-50-day oscillation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, and the annual cycle. Interpretation of the results in terms of possible interaction between these various time scales is presented.

Lau, Ka-Ming↗
NASA NTRS1989

A video atlas of TOMS ozone data, 1978-88

The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), on-board NASA's Nimbus-7 weather satellite, has been observing ozone over the earth once daily for the last 10 yr. A time-lapse atlas of 3440 color-coded images drawn from the TOMS archive from 1978 to 1988 has been visualized on a standard VHS videotape that is now available from NASA. The rapid and complex ozone variations presented demonstrate the difficulty of separating man-induced climate changes from natural variability. This article presents a few images from the atlas and describes interesting features in the animation, such as the correlation between ozone and 'the weather', and the recent deepening of the annual ozone hole over the South Pole. Originally intended as a browsing tool for the TOMS digital database, the videotape is a vivid presentation of the earth's atmospheric dynamics and chemistry that is recommended for scientists, educators, policy makers, and citizens concerned about the global environment.

Chesters, D.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Editorial: North Pacific Environment and Paleoclimate from the Late Pleistocene to Present

The vast area of the North Pacific, spanning ~55° longitude, represents a challenge for documenting and understanding the geologic history of ocean, atmosphere, and terrestrial environmental change. This special issue highlights site-specific analyses to address various questions and provides clues that arise in response to continued North Pacific warming today in a rapidly changing climate (Figure 1). The emergence of new methods and novel application of existing methods serve to enhance our fundamental understanding of natural modes of climate variability driven by ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns, including the role of external (e.g., insolation) vs. internal forcing [e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)]. Included in this volume are geographically diverse studies that present new and traditional methods for the interpretation of climate records drawn from pollen, macrofossils, tree rings, diatoms, grain size, and glacial studies. Many provide new geographic comparisons, such as Kamchatka and Hawaii, or emerge from novel geologic archives and environments, such as the marine shelf, a thermokarst lake, and a fossil forest.

Jones, Miriam C.↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Calibration and Characterization of Earth Remote Sensing and Environmental Monitoring Instruments

The use of remote sensing instruments on orbiting satellite platforms in the study of Earth Science and environmental monitoring was officially inaugurated with the April 1, 1960 launch of the Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) [1]. The first TIROS accommodated two television cameras and operated for only 78 days. However, the TIROS program, in providing in excess of 22,000 pictures of the Earth, achieved its primary goal of providing Earth images from a satellite platform to aid in identifying and monitoring meteorological processes. This marked the beginning of what is now over four decades of Earth observations from satellite platforms. reflected and emitted radiation from the Earth using instruments on satellite platforms. These measurements are input to climate models, and the model results are analyzed in an effort to detect short and long-term changes and trends in the Earth's climate and environment, to identify the cause of those changes, and to predict or influence future changes. Examples of short-term climate change events include the periodic appearance of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean [2] and the spectacular eruption of Mount Pinatubo on the Philippine island of Luzon in 1991. Examples of long term climate change events, which are more subtle to detect, include the destruction of coral reefs, the disappearance of glaciers, and global warming. Climatic variability can be both large and small scale and can be caused by natural or anthropogenic processes. The periodic El Nino event is an example of a natural process which induces significant climatic variability over a wide range of the Earth. A classic example of a large scale anthropogenic influence on climate is the well-documented rapid increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide occurring since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution [3]. An example of the study of a small-scale anthropogenic influence in climate variability is the Atlanta Land-use Analysis Temperature and Air-quality (ATLANTA) project [4]. This project has found that the replacement of trees and vegetation with concrete and asphalt in Atlanta, Georgia, and its environs has created a microclimate capable of producing wind and thunderstorms. A key objective of climate research is to be able to distinguish the natural versus human roles in climate change and to clearly communicate those findings to those who shape and direct environmental policy.

Butler, James J.↗