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At least 37 records · Page 2

Simulation of ENSO Teleconnections to Precipitation Extremes over the United States in the High-Resolution Version of E3SM

Abstract We evaluate the simulated teleconnection of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to winter season precipitation extremes over the United States in a long (98 years) 1950 control high-resolution version (HR; 25-km nominal atmosphere model horizontal resolution) of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1). The model bias and spatial pattern of ENSO teleconnections to mean and extreme precipitation in HR overall are similar to the low-resolution model’s (LR; 110 km) historical simulation (four-member ensemble, 1925–59). However, over the southeastern United States (SE-U.S.), HR produces stronger El Niño–associated extremes, reducing LR’s model bias. Both LR and HR produce weaker than observed increase in storm track activity during El Niño events there, but HR improves the ENSO-associated variability of moisture transport over SE-U.S. During El Niño, stronger vertical velocities in HR produce stronger large-scale precipitation, causing larger latent heating of the troposphere that pulls in more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the SE-U.S. This positive feedback also contributes to the stronger mean and extreme precipitation response in HR. Over the Pacific Northwest, LR’s bias of stronger than observed La Niña associated extremes is amplified in HR. Both models simulate stronger than observed moisture transport from the Pacific Ocean into the region during La Niña years. The amplified HR bias there is due to stronger orographically driven vertical updrafts that create stronger large-scale precipitation, despite weaker La Niña–induced storm track activity. Significance Statement New high-resolution Earth system models (ESMs) solve mathematical equations of fluid flow at much smaller spatial scales than prevalent ESMs, and thus are prohibitively expensive to compute. However, they can be useful for simulating accurate details of regional climate extremes that are driven by naturally occurring climate oscillations like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, we evaluate the simulation of ENSO-driven precipitation extremes over the United States in the high-resolution version of the U.S. Department of Energy’s new Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1. We find that the high-resolution model improves upon its low-resolution counterpart over the southeastern United States by producing a better transport of moisture into the region from the Gulf of Mexico during El Niño. Over the U.S. Pacific Northwest, the high-resolution model simulates the atmospheric flow in more detail over the complex mountainous terrain. However, it also brings in more moisture from the Pacific Ocean just like the low-resolution model. This causes it to produce precipitation extremes during La Niña years there that are stronger than that observed in the real world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulations of vertical displacement oscillatory modes and global Alfvén Eigenmodes in JET geometry

Vertical Displacement Oscillatory Modes (VDOM), with frequency in the Alfvén range, are natural modes of oscillation of magnetically confined laboratory plasmas with elongated cross-section. These axisymmetric modes arise from the interaction between the plasma current, which is in equilibrium with currents flowing in external coils, and perturbed currents induced on a nearby conducting wall. The restoring force exerted by these perturbed currents on the vertical motion of the plasma column leads to its oscillatory behavior. An analytic model for VDOM was proposed based on an idealized 'straight tokamak' equilibrium with uniform equilibrium current density. This article introduces the first numerical simulations of VDOM in a realistic JET tokamak configuration, using the extended-MHD code NIMROD and drawing comparisons with Global Alfvén Eigenmodes (GAE). The results show qualitative agreement with analytic predictions regarding mode frequency and radial structure, supporting the identification of VDOM as a fundamental oscillation mode in tokamak plasmas. VDOM and GAE are modeled in a representative JET discharge, where axisymmetric perturbations with toroidal mode number n = 0 driven unstable by fast ions were observed. The two modes are examined separately using a forced oscillator within the NIMROD code, which enables a comparison of their characteristics and helps identify the experimentally observed mode possibly as a GAE.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Dynamic Oscillation and Motion of Oil‐in‐Water Emulsion Droplets

Abstract The interplay of interfacial tensions on droplets results in a range of self‐powered motions that mimic those of living systems and serve as a tunable model to understand their complex non‐equilibrium behavior. Spontaneous shape deformations and oscillations are crucial features observed in nature but difficult to incorporate in synthetic artificial systems. Here, we report sessile oil‐in‐water emulsions that exhibit rapid oscillating behavior. The oscillations depend on the nature and concentration of the surfactant, the chemical composition of the oil, and the wettability of the solid substrate. The rapid changes in the contact angle per oscillation are observed using side‐view optical microscopy. We propose that the changes in the interfacial tension of the oil droplets is due to the partitioning of the surfactant into the oil phase and the movement of self‐emulsified oil out of the parent droplets giving rise to the rhythmic variation in droplet contact‐line. The ability to control and understand droplet oscillation can help model similar oscillations in out‐of‐equilibrium systems in nature and reproduce biomimetic behavior in artificial systems for various applications, such as microfluidic lab‐on‐a‐chip and adaptive materials.

Krishna Mani, Sanjana↗

Dynamic Oscillation and Motion of Oil‐in‐Water Emulsion Droplets

The interplay of interfacial tensions on droplets results in a range of self‐powered motions that mimic those of living systems and serve as a tunable model to understand their complex non‐equilibrium behavior. Spontaneous shape deformations and oscillations are crucial features observed in nature but difficult to incorporate in synthetic artificial systems. Here, we report sessile oil‐in‐water emulsions that exhibit rapid oscillating behavior. The oscillations depend on the nature and concentration of the surfactant, the chemical composition of the oil, and the wettability of the solid substrate. The rapid changes in the contact angle per oscillation are observed using side‐view optical microscopy. We propose that the changes in the interfacial tension of the oil droplets is due to the partitioning of the surfactant into the oil phase and the movement of self‐emulsified oil out of the parent droplets giving rise to the rhythmic variation in droplet contact‐line. The ability to control and understand droplet oscillation can help model similar oscillations in out‐of‐equilibrium systems in nature and reproduce biomimetic behavior in artificial systems for various applications, such as microfluidic lab‐on‐a‐chip and adaptive materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Studies of a modulated Hall thruster

A typical Hall thruster is powered from a DC power supply and operates with a constant discharge voltage. In operation, the discharge current is subject to strong low frequency oscillations (so-called breathing oscillations). Recent studies have shown that not only can these breathing oscillations be correlated with improved performance, but these oscillations can be induced and controlled by modulating the anode voltage. In this work, a systematic experimental study of the plasma flow in a modulated cylindrical Hall thruster was performed to characterize the effect of natural and modulated breathing oscillations on thruster performance. Measurements suggest that modulating the anode voltage in resonance with the natural breathing frequency does increase the thrust, but a corresponding phase alignment of discharge current and discharge voltage causes the efficiency gains to be insignificant. In addition, the outward shift of the acceleration region causes the plasma plume divergence to increase at the resonance condition and thereby, limit the thrust increase. Further, mechanisms underlying the relative phase between discharge current, ion current, and discharge voltage are investigated experimentally and corroborated with one-dimensional hybrid simulations of the thruster discharge.

modelling↗

O 2 dosage as a descriptor of TWC performance under lean/rich dithering in stoichiometric natural gas engines

The effects of oscillations in gas composition, known as lean/rich dithering, on the performance of a commercial Pd-based three-way catalyst (TWC) for stoichiometric natural gas (NG) engines were evaluated using synthetic exhaust flow reactor experiments. Under simulated NG exhaust conditions, NO conversion was intimately correlated to CH 4 conversion at slightly fuel-rich operating conditions. CH 4 conversion significantly varied with lambda (or O 2 concentration) and depended on the direction of the lambda change. The dynamic CH 4 conversion is likely related to the change of catalyst oxidation state and structures of Pd active sites. The CH 4 -NO cross-over point was found at a rich-biased lambda rather than stoichiometry. Compared to static operation, catalyst performance was much higher under a realistic dithering condition. The impacts of dithering parameters including amplitude and frequency on CH 4 and NO conversions were explored. O 2 dosage is proposed as an effective descriptor of the TWC dithering performance. In the O 2 -dosage space, the performance of distinct dithering parameters collapse, helping to elucidate the fundamental influence of dithering parameters on TWC performance. With the help of O2 dosage, an optimal operating window leading to high CH 4 and NO conversions was identified. A higher dithering amplitude is required to keep the catalyst in a reduced state for higher CH 4 and NO conversions, while an appropriate O 2 dosage that does not exceed the breakthrough OSC is necessary to avoid excess O 2 that results in NO slip. The dithering amplitude and O 2 -dosage-metric maps provide a new method for studying dynamic TWC performance and identifying optimum operation strategies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Model-Agnostic Algorithm for Real-Time Attack Identification in Power Grid using Koopman Modes

Malicious activities on measurements from sensors like Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) can mislead the control center operator into taking wrong control actions resulting in disruption of operation, financial losses, and equipment damage. In particular, false data attacks initiated during power systems transients caused due to abrupt changes in load and generation can fool the conventional model-based detection methods relying on thresholds comparison to trigger an anomaly. In this paper, we propose a Koopman mode decomposition (KMD) based algorithm to detect and identify false data attacks in real-time. The Koopman modes (KMs) are capable of capturing the nonlinear modes of oscillation in the transient dynamics of the power networks and reveal the spatial embedding of both natural and anomalous modes of oscillations in the sensor measurements. The Koopman-based spatio-temporal nonlinear modal analysis is used to filter out the false data injected by an attacker. The performance of the algorithm is illustrated on the IEEE 68-bus test system using synthetic attack scenarios generated on GridSTAGE, a recently developed multivariate spatio-temporal data generation framework for simulation of adversarial scenarios in cyber-physical power systems.

Nandanoori, Sai Pushpak↗

Resonant amplification of enzymatic chemical oscillations by oscillating flow

Using theory and simulation, we analyzed the resonant amplification of chemical oscillations that occur due to externally imposed oscillatory fluid flows. The chemical reactions are promoted by two enzyme-coated patches located sequentially on the inner surface of a pipe that transports the enclosed chemical solution. In the case of diffusion-limited systems, the period of oscillations in chemical reaction networks is determined by the rate of the chemical transport, which is diffusive in nature and, therefore, can be effectively accelerated by the imposed fluid flows. In this work, we first identify the natural frequencies of the chemical oscillations in the unperturbed reaction–diffusion system and, then, use the frequencies as a forcing input to drive the system to resonance. We demonstrate that flow-induced resonance can be used to amplify the amplitude of the chemical oscillations and to synchronize their frequency to the external forcing. In particular, we show that even 10% perturbations in the flow velocities can double the amplitude of the resulting chemical oscillations. Particularly, effective control can be achieved for the two-step chemical reactions where during the first half-period, the fluid flow accelerates the chemical flux toward the second catalytic patch, while during the second half-period, the flow amplifies the flux to the first patch. The results can provide design rules for regulating the dynamics of coupled reaction–diffusion processes and can facilitate the development of chemical reaction networks that act as chemical clocks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Resonant X-ray excitation of the nuclear clock isomer 45 Sc

Resonant oscillators with stable frequencies and large quality factors help us to keep track of time with high precision. Examples range from quartz crystal oscillators in wristwatches to atomic oscillators in atomic clocks, which are, at present, our most precise time measurement devices. The search for more stable and convenient reference oscillators is continuing. Nuclear oscillators are better than atomic oscillators because of their naturally higher quality factors and higher resilience against external perturbations. One of the most promising cases is an ultra-narrow nuclear resonance transition in 45 Sc between the ground state and the 12.4-keV isomeric state with a long lifetime of 0.47 s (ref. 10 ). The scientific potential of 45 Sc was realized long ago, but applications require 45 Sc resonant excitation, which in turn requires accelerator-driven, high-brightness X-ray sources that have become available only recently. Here we report on resonant X-ray excitation of the 45 Sc isomeric state by irradiation of Sc-metal foil with 12.4-keV photon pulses from a state-of-the-art X-ray free-electron laser and subsequent detection of nuclear decay products. Simultaneously, the transition energy was determined as ${\mathrm{12,389.59}}_{+0.12\left({\rm{syst}}\right)}^{\pm 0.15\left({\rm{stat}}\right)}\,{\rm{eV}}$ with an uncertainty that is two orders of magnitude smaller than the previously known values. These advancements enable the application of this isomer in extreme metrology, nuclear clock technology, ultra-high-precision spectroscopy and similar applications.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Atmospheric Neutrinos: History and Future

Atmospheric neutrinos are produced when cosmic rays crash into the atmosphere. They have played a key role in the discovery of neutrino oscillation and continue to serve as an important natural neutrino source, covering a wide range of energy and oscillation baseline. In this talk, I’ll briefly introduce the production mechanism and major detection techniques, then highlight on the oscillation analyses with atmospheric neutrinos in large neutrino detectors such as Super-Kamiokande, IceCube, and DUNE. I will also review other atmospheric neutrino related physics.

Wan, Linyan [Fermilab]↗

Lifetime measurements of 0 + states in Er 168 with the Doppler-shift attenuation method

Here, the lowest-lying shape oscillations of deformed nuclei have been described as quadrupole in nature (λ = 2), resulting in two types of vibrations or oscillations: β vibrations with oscillations along the symmetry axis (K π = 0 + ) and γ vibrations breaking axial symmetry with a projection of K π = 2 + on the symmetry axis. The γ vibration seems to be well characterized as the first K π = $2^+_1$ (or $2^+_γ$) band in deformed nuclei and exhibits a systematic behavior across the region. The nature of the K π = 0 + excitations, however, has remained poorly understood and has been open to debate for some decades. The goal of this work is to understand the nature of 0 + states observed in 168 Er through measurements of the lifetimes of these states and to determine if they are consistent with oscillations built on a deformed ground state, the minima of other coexisting shapes, single-particle states, or a mixture of effects. Lifetimes of excited states in the 168 Er nucleus were measured with the Doppler Shift Attenuation Method (DSAM) and the inelastic neutron scattering reaction, (n, n'γ), at the University of Kentucky Accelerator Laboratory. Numerous 0 + states had been observed by the (p, t) reaction. We confirm the 0 + states at 1217.2, 1421.5, 1833.6, 2364.9, 2392.1, and 2643.0 keV in 168 Er. We could not, however, support the previous assignments of 0 + levels at 2114.1, 2200.6, 2572.5, and 2617.4 keV. We report measured lifetimes for six confirmed 0 + excitations and additional members of 0 + bands. The results for 168 Er show that it is the third excited K π = 0 + ($0^+_4$) excitation that carries the collective strength and, therefore, the potential to be an oscillation on the ground state. This result is similar to the case in 166 Er, where it was also the $0^+_4$ state that exhibited greater collectivity than the first excited K π = 0 + band. The Delaroche et al. prediction for a collective K π = 0 + band is at E T =1.818 MeV which corresponds the third excited K π = 0 + band.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Dynamic response of a freely rotating butterfly valve in the advanced test reactor – dynamic fluid-body interaction modeling

To regulate primary coolant flow in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR), a butterfly valve was installed between the primary coolant pumps and the reactor core. If the mechanical connection between the valve's disk and its shaft ever fails, the disk will rotate freely. Rapid disk rotation may induce pressure surges that could damage upstream pipes. In the present work, the rotational trajectory and pressure evolution during a disk free-rotation scenario were analyzed via the dynamic fluid-body interaction (DFBI) approach in STAR-CCM+, with the movement of a solid being driven by the forces and moment/torque imposed by its surrounding fluid. Assuming a large initial opening angle, the disk accelerates slowly, but swiftly passes the closed position. As a result of the sudden valve closure, a pressure surge occurs in the upstream pipes, exceeding their maximum allowable pressure. Furthermore, the disk does not stabilize at the closed position but continually oscillates due to the unsteady nature of the coolant flow. Because of the significant and continuous water hammer effect, a fix to the butterfly valve is being implemented to prevent rapid valve closure due to failure at the valve's disk/shaft mechanical connection.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Advanced Power-Hardware-in-the-Loop Evaluation of Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs)

Power-hardware-in-the-loop evaluation of IBRs has become more and more important as it provides reliable testing results to investigate the real responses of inverters with interconnected systems. A successful laboratory PHIL testing gives confidence of the hardware system to be deployed and de-risk technology integration prior to field deployment. So far, there are two important applications for PHIL evaluation: (1) test stability and functionality of large utility inverters into the system when it interconnects to the distribution systems/microgrids; and (2) test the collective grid service that inverters can provide to the grid. For the first application, the PHIL evaluation has high requirements for the stability and accuracy of the PHIL interface as the close-loop in digital real time simulator (DRTS) should replicate the actual current and voltage dynamics in the inverter. This is challenging because of the delays, sensing errors, nonlinearities of inverters, and hardware bandwidth limitations of the elements in the HIL loop. For the second application, multiple inverters will be tested resulting in multiple PCCs, which naturally causes competing dynamics and oscillations among hardware inverters if traditional PHIL interface is used. Therefore, new PHIL interface should be developed to compromise between stability and accuracy and represent the dispatched grid services for the hardware inverters. In this presentation, we will share our latest work in developing PHIL interface in these two applications to address the two key challenges.

DERMS↗

Mean-field equation for phase-modulated optical parametric oscillator

The widely established techniques for the generation of ultrashort optical pulses rely on passive mode locking of lasers, with the output pulse duration and emission spectrum determined by the intrinsic lifetime of laser transition in the gain medium. Due to the instantaneous nature of nonlinear gain, optical parametric oscillators (OPOs) are capable of generating optical radiation in all timescales from continuous-wave (cw) to ultrashort femtosecond regime, if driven by laser pump sources in the corresponding time domain. In the ultrashort timescale, operation of OPOs conventionally relies on mode-locked pump lasers, with the concomitant disadvantages of large footprint and high cost. At the same time, the lack of gain storage mandates the use of synchronous pumping, resulting in increased complexity. In this paper, we present the concept of phase-modulated OPO driven by cw pump laser. The approach overcomes the traditional drawbacks of ultrafast OPOs, enabling femtosecond pulse generation without the need for synchronous pumping, resulting in a simplified, compact, and cost-effective architecture using cw input pump lasers. We derive a mean-field equation for a degenerate χ ( 2 ) OPO driven by a cw laser with intracavity electro-optic modulator (EOM), and also including dispersion compensation. The equation predicts the formation of stable femtosecond pulses ( < 200 fs ) , in both normal and anomalous dispersion regimes, with a controllable repetition rate determined by the frequency of the EOM. The remarkable functionality of the proposed scheme paves the way for the development of an alternative class of widely tunable coherent femtosecond light sources in both bulk and integrated format based on χ ( 2 ) OPOs using cw pump lasers. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Sanchez, A. D. (ORCID:0000000327630339)↗

Entanglement rearrangement in self-consistent nuclear structure calculations

Background: Entanglement plays a central role in a diverse array of increasingly important research areas, including quantum computation, simulation, measurement, sensing, and communication. Extensive suites of investigations have been performed to better understand entanglement in atomic and molecular quantum many-body systems, while the exploration of entanglement in the structure of nuclei and their reactions is presently in its infancy. Purpose: The goal of this work is to begin investigating the entanglement properties of nuclei from first-principles nuclear many-body calculations. We attempt to identify common features and emergent structures of entanglement that could ultimately lead to new and natural many-body schemes. With an eye toward quantum accelerators in future hybrid-supercomputers, criteria for partitioning nuclear many-body calculations into quantum and classical components may provide advantages in future large-scale computations. Along the way we look for explanations of the relative success of phenomenological models such as the nuclear shell model, and for better ways to match to low-energy nuclear effective field theories and lattice QCD calculations to nuclear many-body techniques that are based upon entanglement. Method: We explore the entanglement between single-particle states in 4 He and 6 He. The patterns of entanglement emerging from different single-particle bases are compared, and possible links with the convergence of observables are explored, in particular, ground-state energies. The nuclear wave functions are obtained by performing active-space no-core configuration-interaction calculations using a two-body nucleon-nucleon interaction derived from chiral effective field theory. Entanglement measures within single-particle bases exhibiting different degrees of complexity are determined, in particular, harmonic oscillator (HO), Hartree-Fock (HF), natural (NAT) and variational natural (VNAT) bases. Specifically, single-orbital entanglement entropy, two-orbital mutual information, and negativity are studied. Results: The entanglement structures in 4 He and 6 He are found to be more localized within NAT and VNAT bases than within a HO basis for the optimal HO parameters we have worked with. In particular a core-valence structure clearly emerges from the full no-core calculation of 6 He. Here, the two-nucleon mutual information shows that the VNAT basis, which typically exhibits good convergence properties, effectively decouples the active and inactive spaces. Conclusions: Measures of one- and two-nucleon entanglement are found to be useful in analyzing the structure of nuclear wave functions, in particular the efficacy of basis states, and may provide useful metrics toward developing more efficient schemes for ab initio computations of the structure and reactions of nuclei, and quantum many-body systems more generally.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DESI 2024: Constraints on physics-focused aspects of dark energy using DESI DR1 BAO data

Baryon acoustic oscillation data from the first year of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) provide near percent-level precision of cosmic distances in seven bins over the redshift range z=0.1–4.2. Here, this paper is the follow-up to the original DESI BAO cosmology paper [A. G. Adame et al. (DESI Collaboration), arXiv:2404.03002], which considered the conventional w 0 w a cold dark matter (CDM) model. We use the novel DESI data, together with other cosmic probes, to constrain the background expansion history using some well-motivated physical classes of dark energy. In particular, we explore three physics-focused behaviors of dark energy from the equation of state and energy density perspectives: the thawing class (matching many simple quintessence potentials), emergent class (where dark energy comes into being recently, as in phase transition models), and mirage class [where phenomenologically the distance to cosmic microwave background (CMB) last scattering is close to that from a cosmological constant Λ despite dark energy dynamics]. All three classes fit the data at least as well as Λ ⁢CDM, and indeed can improve on it by Δ⁢χ 2 ≈ –5 to –17 for the combination of DESI BAO with CMB and supernova data while having one more parameter. The mirage class does essentially as well as w 0 ⁢w a CDM and exhibits moderate to strong Bayesian evidence preference with respect to Λ⁢ CDM. These classes of dynamical behaviors highlight worthwhile avenues for further exploration into the nature of dark energy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Validation of a Hybrid Domain Overlapping Coupling Between SAM and CFD Against the TALL-3D Transients

The System Thermal Hydraulics (STH) code SAM has been coupled to the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code Simcenter STAR-CCM+ utilizing a hybrid domain overlapping method with an explicit coupling in time. The coupling aims to extend the STH code’s applicability to scenarios where local momentum and energy transfers are important yet difficult for STH codes to capture, such as three-dimensional (3D) mixing. The coupling method’s numerical stability was verified in the past against two closed-loop configurations, and it was validated against a double T-junction experiment with 3D scalar mixing. In the present work, the coupling method is validated against the TALL-3D STH/CFD coupling benchmark facility. TALL-3D is a three-legged, liquid-metal facility with a large, pool-type enclosure (test section) that exhibits 3D flow effects to be modeled by a CFD code. The rest of the system exhibits approximately 1D behavior well-predicted by an STH code. First, the present STAR-CCM+ CFD model of the 3D test section is validated against experimental data. Then, the SAM-STARCCM+ coupled model is validated against six different TALL-3D steady states, including SAM standalone model results for comparison. Lastly, the SAM-STARCCM+ coupled model is validated against two TALL-3D transients, one exhibiting flow reversal in the test section and one exhibiting nonlinear, Limit Cycle Oscillations (LCO). For the first transient, the SAM-STARCCM+ coupled model properly predicts an increase in the test section’s inlet temperature during flow reversal, and this is not predicted by the SAM standalone model. Following flow reversal, the SAM-STARCCM+ coupled model better-predicts the initial flow recovery and following oscillations as the system approaches a final natural circulation state. For the second transient, no true final steady state is observed due to LCO. Neither the SAM-STARCCM+ coupled model nor the SAM standalone model can perfectly capture the experiment’s changing oscillation frequency during the transient. However, the SAM-STARCCM+ coupled model does reproduce the oscillatory feedback observed in the system. This is a significant achievement as the SAM-STARCCM+ coupled model only uses an explicit coupling in time, as opposed to a semi-implicit coupling. In comparison, previous STH/CFD coupling efforts of the TALL-3D facility required semi-implicit coupling to obtain similar results.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Quantifying the influence of natural climate variability on in situ measurements of seasonal total and extreme daily precipitation

Abstract While various studies explore the relationship between individual sources of climate variability and extreme precipitation, there is a need for improved understanding of how these physical phenomena simultaneously influence precipitation in the observational record across the contiguous United States. In this work, we introduce a single framework for characterizing the historical signal (anthropogenic forcing) and noise (natural variability) in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation. An important aspect of our analysis is that we simultaneously isolate the individual effects of seven modes of variability while explicitly controlling for joint inter-mode relationships. Our method utilizes a spatial statistical component that uses in situ measurements to resolve relationships to their native scales; furthermore, we use a data-driven procedure to robustly determine statistical significance. In Part I of this work we focus on natural climate variability: detection is mostly limited to DJF and SON for the modes of variability considered, with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific–North American pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation exhibiting the largest influence. Across all climate indices considered, the signals are larger and can be detected more clearly for seasonal total versus extreme precipitation. We are able to detect at least some significant relationships in all seasons in spite of extremely large (> 95%) background variability in both mean and extreme precipitation. Furthermore, we specifically quantify how the spatial aspect of our analysis reduces uncertainty and increases detection of statistical significance while also discovering results that quantify the complex interconnected relationships between climate drivers and seasonal precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗