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Exploring the Future Energy Value of Long-Duration Energy Storage

Long-duration energy storage is commonly viewed as a key technology for providing flexibility to the grid and broader energy systems over a multidecadal time frame. However, prior work has typically used present-day grid infrastructures to characterize the relationship between the duration and arbitrage value of storage in electricity markets. This study leverages established National Renewable Energy Laboratory grid planning and operations tools, analysis, and data to execute a price-taker model of an energy storage system for several 8760 h price series representative of current and future contiguous United States grid infrastructures with varying shares of variable renewable energy (VRE). We find that the total value of energy storage typically increases with VRE shares, but any increase in the relative value of longer storage durations over time depends on the region and grid mix. Some regions see incremental value increasing notably, up to 20–40 h in 2050, while others do not. The negative effect of lower roundtrip efficiency on value is also found to be scenario-dependent, with the energy value in higher VRE scenarios being less sensitive to roundtrip efficiency and more supportive of longer storage durations. Long-duration storage value and deployment potential are a function of evolving electricity sector infrastructure, markets, and policy, making it critical to consistently revisit potential long-duration storage contributions to the grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cooling Egypt: Cost and benefits of room air conditioner efficiency improvement in Egypt

Egypt is one of the largest countries in the Middle East and North Africa region with a population of a total of 106 million (as of July 2022). Increasing urbanization, population growth, and increasing temperatures will likely continue to drive demand for electricity from air conditioning, with corresponding negative impacts on the peak load, air quality, and greenhouse gas emissions from refrigerant use and energy consumption. Since 2003, Egypt has adopted a standards and labeling program for various appliances, and has improved its room air conditioner (RAC) energy efficiency requirements in 2016 and 2017. However, its market is still dominated by inefficient fixed-speed drive (FSD) RACs due to a price-sensitive market. Seasonal metrics such as Cooling Season Performance Factor (CSPF) measure the energy efficiency of FSD and variable-speed drive (VSD) RACs on the same scale. Leading markets, most notably China, have already adopted a new MEPS in 2020 and 2022, which align largely with the United for Efficiency (U4E) Model Regulations Guidelines. India has also adopted a CSPF metric. Both India and China are now experiencing (1) increased demand and consumption of higher efficiency VSD RACs, as well as (2) a corresponding drop in prices from the economies of scale of production of these higher efficiency RACs. Because China is a leading manufacturer in the global air conditioner (AC) market, its adoption of the model U4E regulations have effectively raised the energy efficiency of the ACs in the global market. To achieve the benefits of taking a similar approach to Egypt’s market, we offer the following recommendations: 1. Adopt a common metric to measure the efficiency of both FSD and VSD RACs 2. Raise the stringency of MEPS to the level of the U4E Model Regulation Guidelines 3. Restructure the labeling program from the “A++” labeling scheme to a simpler A through E or a star-rating program 4. Strengthen the compliance regime governing the Egyptian AC MEPS 5. Assist small and medium AC manufacturers in Egypt to transition manufacturing lines to produce low-cost, high-efficiency VSD RACs. Adopting these recommendations would reduce Egypt’s electricity consumption to 11 TWh in 2030 and 89 TWh in 2050—with corresponding carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions and avoided generation capacity requirements compared to the baseline.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Case Study: Hybrid Carbon Conversion Using Low-Carbon Energy Sources in Coal-Producing States

The demand for more carbon efficient power sources and a decrease in natural gas prices has decreased the desire for coal power. This decrease in demand has led to massive job losses in coal mining regions over the past decade. The purpose of this project is to develop a hybrid energy system utilizing both a coal power plant and advanced reactor, which is competitive with natural gas by improving on profitability and decreasing carbon emissions. This report details the problem with a summary of the impact on the coal industry and the availability of renewable energy sources in the Appalachian region. Because of the geography of the region, variable renewable energy sources are not available without significant size and siting restrictions. However, biomass in the form of wood waste is abundant and can be used as a carbon neutral energy source. Combining biomass and coal processing, in addition to thermal power plants, can increase system profits and efficiency by providing peaking power and conversion opportunities for secondary markets. The electric load is based on publicly available demand data from Appalachian Power, which services the western Virginia and southern West Virginia in the Appalachian region. The demand information is combined by service, normalized, and scaled to an average demand of 1000 kW, which will be the basis for sizing the hybrid energy system. A traditional screening curve analysis for a coal plant and advanced reactor shows that the least cost design varies significantly based on the assumed discount rate and capital recovery period. An optimization program to size the design in TEAL based on the load curve gives 10 optimal designs, all with a negative resulting net present value (NPV) and a coal plant capacity of less than 15%. Including profits from selling captured carbon at a flat rate results in a positive NPV; however, the coal capacity factor only increases to about 40%. There are limitations with this optimization as well since the price of CO2 is likely to decrease as more is sold to the conversion market. The suggested design will combine coal power, an advanced reactor, and coal and biomass coprocessing to produce a variety of products that can be sold to the conversion market while increasing system efficiency. The analysis of conversion pathways for coal and biomass reveals that multiple options will need to be included in the analysis to produce the optimal system design. Three systems will be optimized and compared to determine the best design based on the figures of merit of total NPV and cost of carbon avoided. The first system will include a coal power plant and an advanced reactor that will sell electricity to the grid to meet demand and sell captured carbon to the conversion market. The second system adds a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant, which will utilize electricity during times of low demand to produce hydrogen and sell it to the conversion market. The third system adds biomass and coal processing with options for hydrocarbon oils, syngas to be produced for the conversion market, and electricity generation to power components within the system or provide peaking power. This analysis will be based on a new approach that combines traditional screening curve methods with a dispatch algorithm that optimizes the system based on the opportunity cost of different production options. The resulting optimization algorithm should provide results with less processing time than HERON’s decision tree method. The results from this analysis will determine an optimal design and reinforce the benefits of coal power when used in a hybrid energy system. The initial results show that the addition of a secondary market for carbon sales could result in a positive NPV and increases the capacity factor of the coal plant as compared to a design with only sales to the electricity market. The addition of more markets and additional coal consumption from biomass coprocessing could increase NPV further, replace carbon in other markets through the sale of biomass-derived hydrocarbons, and demonstrate the value of coal power technology.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Multiscale Electricity Modeling for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies (MEME-CCS)

This effort employs and adapts an existing, rigorous multiscale electricity modeling platform at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and negative emissions technologies (NET) from the ARPA-E FLECCS program. NREL's modeling platform includes the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electric sector capacity expansion model, which projects future electricity generation mixes at sub-state-level resolution that are downscaled to the unit-level to enable hourly, zonal or nodal electricity production cost modeling in the PLEXOS model. The resulting hourly price data from PLEXOS is provided to technology developers under the ARPA-E FLECCS program to enable technology-specific economic analysis. The ReEDS-PLEXOS modeling suite is well-established for examining electric sector futures with high renewable energy penetrations, energy storage, electrification, and distributed generation. The key advancement proposed herein utilizes collaboration with CCS experts at the University of Wyoming and the FLECCS teams to create innovative methods for representing CCS and NET in the ReEDS and PLEXOS models. Expanded technology options, new operational parameterizations, and detailed data defining CO2 capture, transportation, and storage systems are being integrated into these models to allow an unprecedented combination of scope and resolution for exploring the future of CCS and NET. The resulting capabilities will take advantage of high-performance computing resources to permit wide-ranging scenario analysis to assess CCS and NET deployment under alternative CO2 prices, fossil fuel prices, electricity demand growth, and other electric sector characteristics. Final outcomes will include publicly available hourly grid operation and price data for any U.S. region of interest along with open-access capacity expansion tools for evaluating CCS/NET systems. These products will help an emerging CCS/NET industry in the United States by providing economics-driven guidance to technology developers while informing policy and investment decisions in the public and private sectors.

air capture↗

Sustainable aviation fuel from ethanol: Techno-economic analysis and life cycle analysis

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is crucial for improving energy security, enhancing domestic production, and reducing carbon emissions in the aviation sector. Among various SAF production technologies, the ethanol-to-jet (ETJ) pathway is a promising option due to its economic viability and technological maturity. This study integrates a techno-economic analysis (TEA) and a life cycle analysis (LCA) to evaluate emissions reduction strategies for SAF production via the ETJ pathway, considering use of ethanol derived from both corn grain and corn stover. Conventional corn grain-derived ETJ fuel reduces greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 22 % compared to fossil jet fuel, with potential reductions of 26 %–96 % when incorporating renewable energy sources, with a 6 %–32 % increase in the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP). Corn stover-derived ETJ achieves a 77 % GHG reduction but with higher MFSPs compared to corn grain ETJ. Carbon capture and storage (CCS without considering the cost for piping and sequestration, only compression) reduces the emissions of corn grain-derived ETJ by up to 32 gCO 2 e/MJ and enables negative emissions for corn stover-derived ETJ, with MFSP increases ranging from 1 % to 22 %. While carbon capture and utilization (CCU) increase ethanol yield by 47 %, it raises MFSPs by 54 % due to high electricity demand. Sustainable farming practices provide only limited carbon intensity (CI) reductions individually but do offer cumulative benefits when combined. These findings highlight the trade-offs between cost and environmental impact, providing insights to optimize SAF production strategies and support aviation sector goals for emissions reduction.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Performance of low-cost indoor air quality monitors for PM 2.5 and PM 10 from residential sources

Advances in particle sensor design and manufacturing have enabled the development of low-cost air quality monitors (LCMs). Here, the sensors use light scattering to estimate mass concentration and thus require evaluation for aerosols of varied composition and size distribution. We tested the performance of six LCMs designed for home use and having a retail price under US$300 in October 2018. We assessed their performance by comparing their output to reference PM 2.5 and PM 10 measurements from 21 common residential sources and from infiltrated outdoor PM 2.5 . Reference data were obtained by using gravimetric measurements to adjust time-resolved output from an aerosol spectrometer with both electrical mobility and optical particle sensors. Compared by linear regression to reference measurements, LCMs had negative intercepts and slopes of 1–2 for infiltrated outdoor PM 2.5 . Semi-quantitative responses (~50–200% of actual PM 2.5 ) were obtained for varied aerosols including minerals (ultrasonic humidifier, vacuuming, test dust); combustion products (incense, mosquito coil, extinguished candles); microwave popcorn; and cooking involving frying or grilling. LCMs had low or no response to sources for which all mass was in particles smaller than 0.25 μm, including steady candle flames and cooking without frying or grilling. PM 10 data from LCMs was more variable than PM 2.5 .

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Multiscale Electricity Modeling for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies (Final Report)

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies that can operate with a high degree of operating flexibility could provide necessary electric grid flexibility in a system with high shares of variable renewables. This project examines the deployment and dispatch potential of twelve unique flexible CCS (FLECCS) technologies that encompass post-combustion carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture designs, concepts using a storage media to enable energy arbitrage, and hybrid processes that integrate CCS with direct air capture (DAC) for flexibility with net zero or negative CO 2 emissions. FLECCS technology potential is explored with a multi-model, multi-scale framework including the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electric sector capacity expansion model (CEM) and the PLEXOS production cost model (PCM). Innovative methods were developed to represent FLECCS technology operating modes, performance, and cost in the two models. ReEDS was then used to simulate nine scenarios for each FLECCS technology, three CO 2 emissions price futures reaching $\$$150, $\$$225, and $\$$300/tCO 2 in 2050; and three scenarios for FLECCS technology deployment favorability relative to competing technologies. For each CO 2 price and reference FLECCS favorability, the 2050 infrastructures from ReEDS model are downscaled and implemented in PLEXOS to examine hourly dispatch under detailed operational constraints that are not included in ReEDS. FLECCS technologies exhibited a wide range of deployment potential ranging from none to several hundred gigawatts of capacity, with outcomes highly sensitive to input cost and performance parameters that are inherently highly uncertain. When deployed, FLECCS tended to displace a combination of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies rather than supporting increased renewable deployment. As a result, CO 2 emissions reductions facilitated by FLECCS deployment tended to come with higher overall system costs and electricity prices. When economically competitive, FLECCS technologies can contribute significant flexible generation and firm capacity to the grid, but continued technology development and an expanded analytical scope are necessary to fully understand FLECCS deployment potential its impact on the electric power sector. Follow-on analysis incorporating captured CO 2 tax credit value from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and other potential policy scenarios could be particularly valuable, as this policy can substantially change the relative competitiveness of FLECCS technologies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Technology Pathways Could Help Drive the U.S. West Coast Grid's Exposure to Hydrometeorological Uncertainty

Abstract Previous studies investigating deep decarbonization of bulk electric power systems and wholesale electricity markets have not sufficiently explored how future grid pathways could affect the grid's vulnerability to hydrometeorological uncertainty on multiple timescales. Here, we employ a grid operations model and a large synthetic weather ensemble to “stress test” a range of future grid pathways for the U.S. West Coast developed by ReEDS, a well‐known capacity planning model. Our results show that gradual changes in the underlying capacity mix from 2020 to 2050 can cause significant “re‐ranking” of weather years in terms of annual wholesale electricity prices (with “good” years becoming bad, and vice versa). Nonetheless, we find the highest and lowest ranking price years in terms of average electricity price remain mostly tied to extremes in hydropower availability (streamflow) and load (summer temperatures), with the strongest sensitivities related to drought. Seasonal dynamics seen today involving spring snowmelt and hot, dry summers remain well‐defined out to 2050. In California, future supply shortfalls in our model are concentrated in the evening and occur mostly during periods of high temperature anomalies in late summer months and in late winter; in the Pacific Northwest, supply shortfalls are much more strongly tied to negative streamflow anomalies. Under our more robust sampling of stationary hydrometeorological uncertainty, we also find that the ratio of dis‐patchable thermal (i.e., natural gas) capacity to wind and solar required to ensure grid reliability can differ significantly from values reported by ReEDS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Understanding the Charging Flexibility of Shared Automated Electric Vehicle Fleets

The combined anticipated trends of vehicle sharing (ride-hailing), automated control, and powertrain electrification are poised to disrupt the current paradigm of predominately owner-driven gasoline vehicles with low levels of utilization. Shared, automated, electric vehicle (SAEV) fleets offer the potential for lower cost and emissions and have garnered significant interest among the research community. While promising, unmanaged operation of these fleets may lead to unintended negative consequences. One potentially unintended consequence is a high quantity of SAEVs charging during peak demand hours on the electric grid, potentially increasing the required generation capacity. This research explores the flexibility associated with charging loads demanded by SAEV fleets in response to servicing personal mobility travel demands. Travel demand is synthesized in four major United States metropolitan areas: Detroit, MI; Austin, TX; Washington, DC; and Miami, FL. In each of these four cities, SAEV simulations are performed using local projected electricity prices from the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) for a handful of supply side scenarios. A coordinated charging model is introduced that seeks to reduce fleet charging costs in response to time-varying electricity prices and increasing shares of personal trip demand served (between 1% and 25% of all metro trips served by the SAEV fleet). Simulation results are presented across various scenarios assuming fleetwide coordination to minimize charging energy costs while constrained by offering adequate mobility service to fleet customers. The results indicate that the SAEV charging load is highly flexible; energy costs were shown to reduce between 13% and 46% across a wide range of simulated scenarios. In addition, these savings were realized without detrimentally impacting the fleet’s ability to service trips.

autonomous vehicle↗

Rethinking the Role of Financial Transmission Rights in Wind-Rich Electricity Markets in the Central U.S.

Transmission congestion can cause a divergence between wholesale power prices at the individual pricing nodes where power is generated and the more-liquid trading hubs where that power is often delivered and sold. This nodal price difference is commonly referred to as the “locational basis” (or just “basis”). Because the basis varies over time, it can—if not hedged—unpredictably affect a wind plant’s revenue and/or value, which increases investor risk and potentially slows deployment. We find wind plants typically face a larger and more-negative basis than do thermal generators, and hence are more-negatively impacted by congestion. Moreover, while most thermal generators can effectively hedge basis risk by purchasing conventional fixed-volume financial transmission rights (FTRs), these fixed-volume FTRs do not effectively hedge basis risk for variable wind generation. More-effective hedging mechanisms may be required to support those generators most-impacted by congestion, and to promote continued investment in variable generation resources in congested markets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Impacts of variable renewable energy on wholesale markets and generating assets in the United States: A review of expectations and evidence

Here, we synthesize available literature, data, and analysis on the degree to which growth in variable renewable energy (VRE) has impacted or might in the future impact bulk power system assets, pricing, and costs in the United States. Most studies of future scenarios indicate that VRE reduces wholesale energy prices and capacity factors of thermal generators. Traditional baseload generators are more exposed to these changing market conditions than low-capital cost and more flexible intermediate and peak-load generators. From analysis of historical data we find that VRE is already influencing the bulk power market through changes in temporal and geographic patterns areas with higher levels of VRE. The most significant observed impacts have concentrated in areas with significant VRE and/or nuclear generation along with limited transmission, with negative pricing also often occurring during periods with lower system-wide load. So far, however, VRE, has had a relatively modest impact on historical average annual wholesale prices across entire market regions, at least in comparison to other drivers. The reduction of natural gas prices is the primary contributor to the decline in wholesale prices since 2008. Similarly, VRE impacts on thermal plant retirements have been limited and there is little relationship between the location of recent retirements and VRE penetration levels. Finally, although impacts on wholesale prices have been modest so far, impacts of VRE on the electricity market will be more significant under higher VRE penetrations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

What Is the Best Use of Biomass? A Harmonized LCA-TEA Framework Quantifying Economic and Environmental Metrics for Bioenergy Pathways

Bioresource utilization is expected to play a pivotal role in complementing existing energy pathways and enhancing energy resilience. This study develops a harmonized life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) framework to evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potential, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP), and marginal abatement cost (MAC) of bioenergy pathways. We analyze 19 pathways, including liquid biofuels (via catalytic fast pyrolysis, Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, and gasification), bioelectricity, and biomass-to-hydrogen, with and without carbon capture and storage (CCS). The GHG impacts are assessed using the GREET 2022 model, while U.S. Billion-Ton 2016 biomass availability projections are used to estimate scale-up potential. Additionally, we evaluate the influence of a low-carbon electricity grid on pathway performance. Our results show that CCS implementation reduces carbon intensities (CI) to net-negative values for several pathways, with MAC ranging from $\$$32 to $\$$600 per metric ton (MT) CO2e avoided. Bioelectricity pathways with CCS achieve the lowest MAC ($\$$32–$\$$68/tCO2e), while liquid biofuels and hydrogen pathways remain critical for hard-to-abate sectors like aviation and heavy industry. Pathways with net-positive electricity demand benefit from a low-carbon grid, whereas those co-producing electricity experience increased MAC under lower electricity grid CI scenarios. This open-source framework provides a robust tool for harmonized evaluation of bioenergy pathways, enabling policymakers and stakeholders to identify cost-effective strategies for biomass utilization and carbon abatement at scale. The findings underscore the importance of CCS, co-product credits, and feedstock availability in optimizing bioenergy deployment for a low-carbon economy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Integrated Energy System Investigation for the Eastman Chemical Company, Kingsport, TN Facility

The industrial manufacturing industry is looking to implement new methods of energy production to ensure a consistent energy supply while reducing economic costs and environmental impacts. Much of the manufacturing industry relies on fossil fuels—primarily coal and natural gas—of which there are finite resources subject to price volatility due to an inelastic demand. These resources also come with significant negative environmental impacts related to emissions. While complete independence from fossil fuels is not immediately realistic, options are available to significantly reduce dependency on fossil fuel supplies, including integrated energy systems (IESs) which tightly couple nuclear energy source generators with energy consumers (i.e., industrial factories) to fulfill power and energy requirements. Once realized, optimized IESs may yield significant economic and environmental benefits over traditionally isolated generator and consumer facilities. This report presents a feasibility study for siting an IES to meet the steam and electricity needs of Eastman Chemical Company’s facility in Kingsport, Tennessee. This study explored reactor technology options, evaluation,and optimization,with a focus on meeting the facility’s operational and reliability requirements. This work is part of an ongoing effort by Eastman to be good environmental stewards and meet the demands of their customers by shifting to more environmentally sustainable solutions for their energy needs. Outcomes of this report are also of general interest and value to any design or development team seeking to deploy an IES,as many topics described herein are generally applicable to any nuclear power facility.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrated Energy System Investigation for the Eastman Chemical Company, Kingsport, Tennessee Facility

The industrial manufacturing industry is looking to implement new methods of energy production to ensure a consistent energy supply while reducing economic costs and environmental impacts. Much of the manufacturing industry relies on fossil fuels—primarily coal and natural gas—of which there are finite resources subject to price volatility due to an inelastic demand. These resources also come with significant negative environmental impacts related to emissions. While complete independence from fossil fuels is not immediately realistic, options are available to significantly reduce dependency on fossil fuel supplies, including integrated energy systems (IESs) which tightly couple nuclear energy source generators with energy consumers (i.e., industrial factories) to fulfill power and energy requirements. Once realized, optimized IESs may yield significant economic and environmental benefits over traditionally isolated generator and consumer facilities. This report presents a feasibility study for siting an IES to meet the steam and electricity needs of Eastman Chemical Company’s facility in Kingsport, Tennessee. This study explored reactor technology options, evaluation, and optimization, with a focus on meeting the facility’s operational and reliability requirements. This work is part of an ongoing effort by Eastman to be good environmental stewards and meet the demands of their customers by shifting to more environmentally sustainable solutions for their energy needs. Outcomes of this report are also of general interest and value to any design or development team seeking to deploy an IES, as many topics described herein are generally applicable to any nuclear power facility.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Data for Carbon-negative Hydrogen: Aqueous Phase Reforming (APR) of Glycerol over NiPt Bimetallic Catalyst Coupled with CO2 Sequestration

Herein we report the production of high-pressure (19.3 bar), carbon-negative hydrogen (H2) from glycerol with a purity of 98.2 mol% H2, 1.8 mol% light hydrocarbons (mainly methane), and 400 ppm of CO. Aqueous phase reforming (APR) of 10 wt% glycerol solution was studied with a series of NiPt alumina bimetallic catalysts supported on alumina. The Ni8Pt1-450 catalyst had the highest hydrogen selectivity (95.6%) and the lowest alkanes selectivity (3.7%) of the tested catalysts. The hydrogen selectivity decreased in the order of Ni8Pt1-450 > Ni8Pt1-260 > Ni1Pt1-260 > Pt-260. The CO2 was sequestered with CaO adsorbent which formed CaCO3. We measured the adsorption capacity of the CaO adsorbent at different temperatures. Life cycle analysis showed that the APR of glycerol coupled with CO2 capture has net negative CO2 equivalent greenhouse gas emissions. The CO2 emissions are −9.9 kg CO2 eq./kg H2 and −50.1 kg CO2 eq./kg H2 when grid electricity and renewable electricity are used, respectively, and the CO2 is allocated respectively to the mass of products produced. The cost of this H2 (denoted as “green-emerald”) was estimated to be 2.4 USD per kg H2 when grid electricity is used and 2.7 USD per kg H2 when using renewable electricity. The cost of glycerol has the highest contribution of 1.71 USD per kg H2. Participation in the carbon credit markets can further decrease the price of the produced H2.

Catalysis↗

Effects of the U.S. inflation reduction act on SMR economics

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 provides a wide array of tax credits and other incentives for low-carbon energy. The technology-neutral clean generation production tax credit (PTC) (Section 45Y of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code) and the technology-neutral investment tax credit (ITC) (Section 48E) lower the net cost of new electricity generation projects with zero or negative greenhouse gas emission rates. We evaluate the impact of the IRA legislation—specifically the PTC and ITC—on the cost-competitiveness of small modular reactors (SMRs). We use the Argonne Low-carbon Energy Analysis Framework (A-LEAF) model to calculate the capacity factor of an SMR with a range of hypothetical variable operating and maintenance (O&M) costs in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electricity market. We selected ERCOT for market modeling because of its competitive structure, available data, and extensive use in prior literature. We use a discounted cash flow model to calculate the SMR’s net present value based on the market prices and capacity factors from A-LEAF, hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs, and other input parameters, with or without the IRA tax credits. We determine the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC for the hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs. We also evaluate potential shifts in the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC based on historical patterns of nuclear capital cost overruns in the United States. We also assess the sensitivity of our results to longer PTC period and electricity prices from the New England market, which tend to be higher than electricity prices in ERCOT. We find that even with the IRA tax credits, only SMRs with low capital and variable O&M costs would be economically feasible in the low-price ERCOT market scenario modeled. A longer PTC period and higher-price market such as New England, however, would significantly expand the economic feasibility of SMRs in the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Carbon-negative hydrogen: aqueous phase reforming (APR) of glycerol over NiPt bimetallic catalyst coupled with CO 2 sequestration

Herein we report the production of high-pressure (19.3 bar), carbon-negative hydrogen (H 2 ) from glycerol with a purity of 98.2 mol% H 2 , 1.8 mol% light hydrocarbons (mainly methane), and 400 ppm of CO. Aqueous phase reforming (APR) of 10 wt% glycerol solution was studied with a series of NiPt alumina bimetallic catalysts supported on alumina. The Ni 8 Pt 1 -450 catalyst had the highest hydrogen selectivity (95.6%) and the lowest alkanes selectivity (3.7%) of the tested catalysts. The hydrogen selectivity decreased in the order of Ni 8 Pt 1 -450 > Ni 8 Pt 1 -260 > Ni 1 Pt 1 -260 > Pt-260. The CO 2 was sequestered with CaO adsorbent which formed CaCO 3 . We measured the adsorption capacity of the CaO adsorbent at different temperatures. Life cycle analysis showed that the APR of glycerol coupled with CO 2 capture has net negative CO 2 equivalent greenhouse gas emissions. The CO 2 emissions are –9.9 kg CO 2 eq./kg H 2 and –50.1 kg CO 2 eq./kg H 2 when grid electricity and renewable electricity are used, respectively, and the CO 2 is allocated respectively to the mass of products produced. The cost of this H 2 (denoted as “green-emerald”) was estimated to be 2.4 USD per kg H 2 when grid electricity is used and 2.7 USD per kg H 2 when using renewable electricity. The cost of glycerol has the highest contribution of 1.71 USD per kg H 2 . As a result, participation in the carbon credit markets can further decrease the price of the produced H 2 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Operating Strategies for Dispatchable PEM Electrolyzers that Enable Low-Cost Hydrogen Production

Hydrogen is a pathway to enabling decarbonization across multiple economic sectors that cannot be directly decarbonized with electricity including heat for industrial operations, medium- and heavy-duty transportation applications, long-duration energy storage, and as a feedstock for chemical synthesis. Producing hydrogen at low costs and carbon footprint is likely essential to economically decarbonize these otherwise "hard to decarbonize" sectors. Low-temperature polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolysis produces hydrogen from water and electricity and is a rapidly developing pathway towards making hydrogen at the scales required for decarbonization applications. The levelized cost of electrolytic hydrogen is dependent on the capital cost, efficiency, and durability of the electrolyzer system as well as the price of electricity supplied to the electrolyzer and the annual utilization of the electrolyzer (capacity factor). Electricity price and capacity factor depend on the source of energy that the system uses and impact other economic factors. Electricity price and capacity factor and the connections between other aspects of hydrogen production via PEM electrolyzers are the focus of this work. PEM electrolyzers have conventionally been operated at high capacity factors using electricity purchased from utilities with a constant price throughout the year. To achieve lower effective electricity prices, recent work has investigated opportunities for electrolyzers to purchase electricity in wholesale markets, where the cost of electricity varies hourly. This option can lead to lower electricity costs when the electrolyzer is a controllable load that ramps up and down rapidly and turns on and off frequently. This configuration and operating strategy capitalizes on times of low wholesale electricity prices and results in lower hydrogen levelized costs than constant operation due to reduced electricity costs even though the reduced capacity factor increases the cost of recovering the capital investment. Cycling on and off frequently also has implications for electrolyzer durability. An electrolyzer configuration where it is directly connected to renewable generation such as wind or solar, only running when the generator is producing energy, has similar implications on operating strategy, hydrogen levelized cost, capacity factor, and durability. This work provides insight into the relationships between dispatchable electrolyzer operating strategies and the cost of producing hydrogen from these systems, outlining strategies and opportunities to minimize production costs while minimizing operations that are likely to negatively impact system durability and efficiency. We find strategies that minimize electrolyzer cycling and the resulting durability impacts while increasing the hydrogen levelized cost only slightly above the minimum. We also find opportunities for batteries to minimize the number of cycles in systems directly connected to renewable generation. These findings outline key opportunities for future electrolyzer deployments and the synergistic benefits between electrolyzers and increased deployment of renewable energy generation like wind and solar. They also inform research and development that is reducing electrolyzer capital cost while managing durability impacts.

electricity markets↗