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NASA NTRS2025

Functional Task Tests in Partial Gravity During Parabolic Flight

BACKGROUND Understanding how critical mission tasks are performed in partial gravity such as on the moon or Mars is necessary to define effective and comprehensive countermeasure strategies for preserving crew performance during exploration missions. We studied the performance of tasks such as standing, balancing, walking, and jumping during the partial gravity phases of parabolic flight. We hypothesized that the acute effects of partial gravity on vestibular, proprioceptive, and sensorimotor functions would negatively impact performance. METHODS Twelve subjects (6F, 6M; 40.2 ± 8.5 years) were tested over three flights of 30 parabolas each, including 10 parabolas at 0.25g, 10 parabolas at 0.5g, and 10 parabolas at 0.75g. Subjects also performed tests in 1g between parabolas. During the seat egress and walk task, subjects rose from a seated position and walked as quickly as possible straight ahead towards a cone (4 m distance), stepped over a 30 cm high obstacle, walked around the cone making a 180° left turn, returned to the chair, and sat down in the chair. Other tasks included a tandem stance on rails, jump down from a 30cm platform, recovery from fall (prone to stand), and limits of stability tasks. Data were collected using inertial measurement units (Opal V2, APDM, Portland, OR) worn on the head and trunk, heart rate monitors (Polar, Finland), and a force plate (Bertec, Columbus, OH). During the jump down and limits of stability tasks, falls were recorded if subjects took extra steps, lifted their heels/toes, or used their arms to recover balance. RESULTS Gravity level had a significant effect on performance, with the greatest changes from 1g tending to be at the 0.25g level (Table 1). Lower gravity levels were associated with increased times to complete the seat egress and walk task and the recovery from fall task, increased head-trunk coordination, decreased tandem stance rail balance times, decreased change in heart rate during the recovery from fall task, and increased cone of stability distance in the anterior-posterior direction. In addition, there were significantly more falls recorded at the lower gravity levels: 31 falls at 0.25g, 14 falls at 0.5g, 6 falls at 0.75g, and 6 falls at 1g. DISCUSSION These data suggest that there is a dose-response relationship between gravity level and functional task performance. The largest changes in performance were expected at the lowest gravity level (0.25g) because subjects would no longer be able to use the gravitational reference for the perception of upright. Understanding the extent of performance deficits informs the risks and design of countermeasures for exploration spaceflight missions.

T R Macaulay↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dust Mitigation Technology to Enable Survive the Night Capabilities

Introduction: As we return to the Moon, the lunar regolith (i.e. lunar dust) covering the surface will be an obstacle to nominal operations. Accounts from Apollo astronauts and analysis of hardware returned from the surface illustrate just how deleterious the dust can be [1]. During Apollo missions, the lunar dust adhered to hardware mechanically and electrostatically [2]. Surviving the Night: Mitigating the lunar dust will be critical to surviving the night. Going hand-in-hand with other extreme environment considerations, dust mitigation is critical to mission success. Dust Impacts on Other Systems: The lunar dust can have negative implications for power, thermal, mechanisms, and several other systems or sub-systems. For example, Apollo encountered marked degradation of performance in heat rejection systems for the lunar roving vehicle, science packages, and other components because of the lunar dust [1]. For power alone, dust can cause internal clogging for power connectors, heat rejection issues, excessive dust on reflective surfaces, reduced power output for solar arrays, and so on. Dust Mitigation Strategy: In addition to considering technology solutions, it is important for hardware, systems, and or components to have a dust mitigation strategy. At a high level, hardware that will encounter the lunar dust should consider these things when defining a dust mitigation strategy: • Understand Natural Environment • Understand Induced Environment • Understand Tolerance to Dust • Write Dust Requirements • Select Dust Mitigation Solutions • Test Hardware in Dusty Environment More information on each of these can be provided to hardware owners. Dust Mitigation Technology Development: NASA has a series of technologies that may be available for hardware that needs to survive the lunar night. Many of these solutions are leveraging dust mitigation technology development efforts from NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), as well as efforts from ESDMD programs, industry, and academia. Through a series of STMD programs (both internal to NASA and through partnerships), there are several technologies in development as considerations as dust mitigation solutions for hardware. Within STMD, the Game Changing Development Program (GCD) has funded several internal dust mitigation projects including low to mid TRL development, demonstrations on CLPS landers of high TRL solutions, and creating standards and best practices for dust mitigation. STMD dust mitigation efforts also include a series of partnerships for developing technologies and advancing the state of dust mitigation at NASA. This includes the Lunar Surface Innovation Consortium (LSIC), Small Business Innovation Research, Early Stage Innovations (ESI), Space Technology Research Grants (STRG), Announcement of Collaboration Opportunities (ACOs) and Tipping Points (TPs), and Challenges and Crowdsourcing, among others. There are also a series of dust mitigation solutions that have been widely used terrestrially, or during Apollo. In recent years, several studies have produced more data on the efficacy of these potential solutions in the lunar environment. Dust Mitigation Solutions: Dust mitigation solutions generally fall into four categories: • Dust Tolerant Mechanisms • Passive Dust Mitigation Capabilities • Active Dust Mitigation Capabilities • Dust Measurement Capabilities There are a series of solutions that may prove beneficial for hardware that needs to survive the lunar night, including new technology development as well as proven, terrestrial solutions. This presentation will discuss in more detail what some of these solutions are for payloads going to the surface. References: [1] J. R. Gaier, NASA/TM—2005-213610, The Effects of Lunar Dust on EVA Systems During the Apollo Missions [2] T. J. Stubbs, et al. Impact of Dust on Lunar Exploration, 2005

dust mitigation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Survive the Dust: Dust Mitigation Technology to Enable Survive the Night Capabilities

Introduction: As we return to the Moon, the lunar regolith (i.e. lunar dust) covering the surface will be an obstacle to nominal operations. Accounts from Apollo astronauts and analysis of hardware returned from the surface illustrate just how deleterious the dust can be [1]. During Apollo missions, the lunar dust adhered to hardware mechanically and electrostatically [2]. Surviving the Night: Mitigating the lunar dust will be critical to surviving the night. Going hand-in-hand with other extreme environment considerations, dust mitigation is critical to mission success. Dust Impacts on Other Systems: The lunar dust can have negative implications for power, thermal, mechanisms, and several other systems or sub-systems. For example, Apollo encountered marked degradation of performance in heat rejection systems for the lunar roving vehicle, science packages, and other components because of the lunar dust [1]. For power alone, dust can cause internal clogging for power connectors, heat rejection issues, excessive dust on reflective surfaces, reduced power output for solar arrays, and so on. Dust Mitigation Strategy: In addition to considering technology solutions, it is important for hardware, systems, and or components to have a dust mitigation strategy. At a high level, hardware that will encounter the lunar dust should consider these things when defining a dust mitigation strategy: • Understand Natural Environment • Understand Induced Environment • Understand Tolerance to Dust • Write Dust Requirements • Select Dust Mitigation Solutions • Test Hardware in Dusty Environment More information on each of these can be provided to hardware owners. Dust Mitigation Technology Development: NASA has a series of technologies that may be available for hardware that needs to survive the lunar night. Many of these solutions are leveraging dust mitigation technology development efforts from NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), as well as efforts from ESDMD programs, industry, and academia. Through a series of STMD programs (both internal to NASA and through partnerships), there are several technologies in development as considerations as dust mitigation solutions for hardware. Within STMD, the Game Changing Development Program (GCD) has funded several internal dust mitigation projects including low to mid TRL development, demonstrations on CLPS landers of high TRL solutions, and creating standards and best practices for dust mitigation. STMD dust mitigation efforts also include a series of partnerships for developing technologies and advancing the state of dust mitigation at NASA. This includes the Lunar Surface Innovation Consortium (LSIC), Small Business Innovation Research, Early Stage Innovations (ESI), Space Technology Research Grants (STRG), Announcement of Collaboration Opportunities (ACOs) and Tipping Points (TPs), and Challenges and Crowdsourcing, among others. There are also a series of dust mitigation solutions that have been widely used terrestrially, or during Apollo. In recent years, several studies have produced more data on the efficacy of these potential solutions in the lunar environment. Dust Mitigation Solutions: Dust mitigation solutions generally fall into four categories: • Dust Tolerant Mechanisms • Passive Dust Mitigation Capabilities • Active Dust Mitigation Capabilities • Dust Measurement Capabilities There are a series of solutions that may prove beneficial for hardware that needs to survive the lunar night, including new technology development as well as proven, terrestrial solutions. This presentation will discuss in more detail what some of these solutions are for payloads going to the surface. References: [1] J. R. Gaier, NASA/TM—2005-213610, The Effects of Lunar Dust on EVA Systems During the Apollo Missions [2] T. J. Stubbs, et al. Impact of Dust on Lunar Exploration, 2005

dust mitigation↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Plasma Wake Downstream of Lunar Topographic Obstacles: Preliminary Results from 2D Particle Simulations

Anticipating the plasma and electrical environments in permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) of the moon is critical in understanding local processes of space weathering, surface charging, surface chemistry, volatile production and trapping, exo-ion sputtering, and charged dust transport. In the present study, we have employed the open-source XOOPIC code [I] to investigate the effects of solar wind conditions and plasma-surface interactions on the electrical environment in PSRs through fully two-dimensional pattic1e-in-cell simulations. By direct analogy with current understanding of the global lunar wake (e.g., references) deep, near-terminator, shadowed craters are expected to produce plasma "mini-wakes" just leeward of the crater wall. The present results (e.g., Figure I) are in agreement with previous claims that hot electrons rush into the crater void ahead of the heavier ions, fanning a negative cloud of charge. Charge separation along the initial plasma-vacuum interface gives rise to an ambipolar electric field that subsequently accelerates ions into the void. However, the situation is complicated by the presence of the dynamic lunar surface, which develops an electric potential in response to local plasma currents (e.g., Figure Ia). In some regimes, wake structure is clearly affected by the presence of the charged crater floor as it seeks to achieve current balance (i.e. zero net current to the surface).

Zimmerman, Michael I.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Anticipated Electrical Environment Within Permanently Shadowed Lunar Craters

Shadowed locations ncar the lunar poles arc almost certainly electrically complex regions. At these locations near the terminator, the local solar wind flows nearly tangential to the surface and interacts with large-scale topographic features such as mountains and deep large craters, In this work, we study the solar wind orographic effects from topographic obstructions along a rough lunar surface, On the leeward side of large obstructions, plasma voids are formed in the solar wind because of the absorption of plasma on the upstream surface of these obstacles, Solar wind plasma expands into such voids) producing an ambipolar potential that diverts ion flow into the void region. A surface potential is established on these leeward surfaces in order to balance the currents from the expansion-limited electron and ion populations, Wc find that there arc regions ncar the leeward wall of the craters and leeward mountain faces where solar wind ions cannot access the surface, leaving an electron-rich plasma previously identified as an "electron cloud." In this case, some new current is required to complete the closure for current balance at the surface, and we propose herein that lofted negatively charged dust is one possible (nonunique) compensating current source. Given models for both ambipolar and surface plasma processes, we consider the electrical environment around the large topographic features of the south pole (including Shoemaker crater and the highly varied terrain near Nobile crater), as derived from Goldstone radar data, We also apply our model to moving and stationary objects of differing compositions located on the surface and consider the impact of the deflected ion flow on possible hydrogen resources within the craters

Farrell, W. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

An evaluation of criteria that may be used to identify species surviving a mass extinction

One of the most difficult obstacles to establishing a causal connection between mass extinctions and large body impacts is the existence of what appear to be many more KT survivor species than previously suspected. Though interpretations of 'Cretaceous' faunal elements in lowermost Danian sediments differ, this enigmatic fauna has not been recovered from every biozone-complete boundary section, including the El Kef stratotype. In terms of their potential for providing constraints on scenarios seeking to account for the KT extinction event, the significance of such observations cannot be overstated. Owing to the consistency with which these observations have been made over the last several years, the possibility of widespread trans-KT biotic survivorship can no longer be dismissed. Rather, the survivorship hypothesis must be tested alongside its alternative (the reworking hypothesis) to determine which explains the available data in the most complete yet parsimonious manner. Moreover, valid tests for survivorship cannot be based on negative evidence or on the assumption that only a small cohort of species could have survived the KT boundary event. Several authors have recently proposed various criteria that might be used to test alternative interpretations for this aspect lowermost Danian biotic record.

Macleod, N.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Optimal Landsat Data for Burn Severity Index Calculations: Implications for High Northern Latitudes Wildfire Research

Satellite remote sensing has been widely used for the evaluation of wildfire burn severity in various ecosystems. While a variety of remote sensing-based burn severity indices have been developed, the Landsat-based differ-enced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) presents the most widely-used approach to burn severity assessment for fire research and management. Although dNBR-based approaches have been continuously updated, including the development of the relative dNBR (RdNBR) and the Relativized Burn Ratio (RBR), one key obstacle for the reliable applications of the burn severity indices in the high northern latitudes has not been adequately addressed. Specifically, optimal Landsat image pairs are very rarely available for the calculation of the burn severity indices in certain regions of the high northern latitudes (HNL), resulting in the burn severity index outputs calculated for a large number of wildfires being considerably affected by non-fire-related factors. The suboptimal selection of image pairs may have partially contributed to the lack of consistency in the performance of the burn severity indices in the HNL regions. In this paper, we systematically evaluated the impacts of sub-optimal image pairs on signal stability through two sets of analyses conducted at different spatial scales. First, at the regional scale, we examined the burn severity indices calculated for a selection of wildfires in Alaska. Here, we demonstrate the inconsistent performance of the same index calculated based on Landsat data that are typically considered as “optimal”. In addition, we show that the calculated indices may be more prone to the negative impacts of these inconsistencies, thus leading to reduced reliability, when there is limited Landsat data availability. Second, at the continental scale, we show that certain areas in the HNL, especially Alaska during the pre-2000 era, are subject to the potentially strong negative impact associated with the limited data availability. Through systematically analyzing this issue, we hope to not only divert more attention to it but also to provide potential solutions, based on which further improvements that may be of particular importance for research on Arctic wildfires could be made.

Dong Chen↗
NASA NTRS1993

Nonlinear rescaling of control values simplifies fuzzy control

Traditional control theory is well-developed mainly for linear control situations. In non-linear cases there is no general method of generating a good control, so we have to rely on the ability of the experts (operators) to control them. If we want to automate their control, we must acquire their knowledge and translate it into a precise control strategy. The experts' knowledge is usually represented in non-numeric terms, namely, in terms of uncertain statements of the type 'if the obstacle is straight ahead, the distance to it is small, and the velocity of the car is medium, press the brakes hard'. Fuzzy control is a methodology that translates such statements into precise formulas for control. The necessary first step of this strategy consists of assigning membership functions to all the terms that the expert uses in his rules (in our sample phrase these words are 'small', 'medium', and 'hard'). The appropriate choice of a membership function can drastically improve the quality of a fuzzy control. In the simplest cases, we can take the functions whose domains have equally spaced endpoints. Because of that, many software packages for fuzzy control are based on this choice of membership functions. This choice is not very efficient in more complicated cases. Therefore, methods have been developed that use neural networks or generic algorithms to 'tune' membership functions. But this tuning takes lots of time (for example, several thousands iterations are typical for neural networks). In some cases there are evident physical reasons why equally space domains do not work: e.g., if the control variable u is always positive (i.e., if we control temperature in a reactor), then negative values (that are generated by equal spacing) simply make no sense. In this case it sounds reasonable to choose another scale u' = f(u) to represent u, so that equal spacing will work fine for u'. In the present paper we formulate the problem of finding the best rescaling function, solve this problem, and show (on a real-life example) that after an optimal rescaling, the un-tuned fuzzy control can be as good as the best state-of-art traditional non-linear controls.

Vanlangingham, H.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Incompressible Turbulent Wing-Body Junction Flow

The overall objective of this study is to contribute to the optimized design of fan bypass systems in advanced turbofan engines. Increasing the engine bypass ratios have provided a major boost in engine performance improvement over the last fifty years. An engine with high bypass ratio (11-16:1) such as the Advanced Ducted Propulsion (ADP) is being developed and is expected to provide an additional 25% improvement in overall efficiency over the early turbofans. Such significant improvements in overall efficiency would reduce the cost per seat mile, which is a major government and Industry challenge for the 21th century. The research is part of the Advanced Subsonic Technology (AST) program that involves a NASA, U.S. Industry and FAA partnership with the goal of a safe and highly productive global air transportation system. The immediate objective of the study is to perform numerical simulation of duct-strut interactions to elucidate the loss mechanisms associated with this configuration that is typical of advanced turbofan engines such as ADP. However, at present experimental data for a duct-strut configuration are not available. Thus, as a first step a wing-body junction flow would be studied and is the specific objective of the present study. At the outset it is to be recognized that while duct-strut interaction flow is similar to that of wing-body junction flows, there are some differences owing to the presence of a wall at both ends of the strut. Likewise, some differences are due to the sheared inflow (as opposed to a uniform inflow) velocity profile. It is however expected that some features of a wing-body junction flow would persist. Next, some of the salient aspects of the complex flow near a wing-body junction, as revealed by various studies reported in the literature will be reviewed. One of the principle characteristics of the juncture flow, is the presence of the mean flow components in a plane perpendicular to the direction of the oncoming free-stream flow. The lateral curvature of the wing/strat causes the oncoming turbulent layer to skew about am axis (x-axis) parallel to the plane (xz-plane) of the mean shear. This is the principle mechanism for the generation of secondary flow. Such skew-induced secondary flows are slow to be attenuated by Reynolds stresses. Additional contribution to the generation of secondary flow comes from anisotropies in Reynolds stresses. Upstream of the strut, the mean-vorticity is directed span wise (along the y-direction). The presence of secondary flow in the vicinity of the strut causes the vorticity to stretch around the obstacle in a horse-shoe shape, with each leg having a vorticity of the opposite sense. The blockage effect of the strut imposes a severe adverse pressure gradient on the oncoming turbulent shear layer, causing boundary layer separation ahead of the leading edge, resulting in a vortex that rolls up and flows downstream into the juncture region. The separation vortices trailing in the wake of the wing can alter the lift or drag characteristics of the surfaces downstream of the wing-body juncture. Likewise, on submarines, the wake flow behind the appendage can degrade the performance of the propeller located downstream. The complex nature of this flow is caused by the presence of all six components of Reynolds stresses. Devenport and Simpson report that in the vicinity of the horse-shoe vortex there is intense recirculation with turbulent stresses being much larger than those normally observed in turbulent flows. These features contribute to making this flow a challenge to predict numerically. Some of the past studies provide useful insights into this flow that would guide our numerical efforts. In measurements reported by Shabaka and Bradshaw, the eddy viscosity tensor is seen to be non-isotropic and has negative components in certain regions. In an effort to evaluate the closure assumptions of various turbulence models, Devenport and Simpson used their own extensive measurements in juncture flows around the nose of a wing-body junction. Measured values of mean-velocity and/or turbulence kinetic energy was used to predict the magnitude of the shear stress vector. Algebraic stress models performed the best followed by Cebeci-Smith eddy viscosity model. The flow is reported to be dominated by a pressure field produced by the wing and the velocity field generated by the horseshoe vortex that is wrapped around the junction between the wing and wall. Kubendran et al. conclude from an experimental study that the shape of leading edge of the wing as characterized by its slenderness ratio is a major factor in determining the flow fields in the juncture region. The more thinner the leading edge of the juncture, the weaker the horseshoe vortex is. Also, with a slender leading edge, the secondary flow in the juncture would be due mainly to the cross-stream gradients of Reynolds stresses rather than due to a lateral skewing of the shear layer.

Krishnamurthy, R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Wire Detection Algorithms for Navigation

In this research we addressed the problem of obstacle detection for low altitude rotorcraft flight. In particular, the problem of detecting thin wires in the presence of image clutter and noise was studied. Wires present a serious hazard to rotorcrafts. Since they are very thin, their detection early enough so that the pilot has enough time to take evasive action is difficult, as their images can be less than one or two pixels wide. Two approaches were explored for this purpose. The first approach involved a technique for sub-pixel edge detection and subsequent post processing, in order to reduce the false alarms. After reviewing the line detection literature, an algorithm for sub-pixel edge detection proposed by Steger was identified as having good potential to solve the considered task. The algorithm was tested using a set of images synthetically generated by combining real outdoor images with computer generated wire images. The performance of the algorithm was evaluated both, at the pixel and the wire levels. It was observed that the algorithm performs well, provided that the wires are not too thin (or distant) and that some post processing is performed to remove false alarms due to clutter. The second approach involved the use of an example-based learning scheme namely, Support Vector Machines. The purpose of this approach was to explore the feasibility of an example-based learning based approach for the task of detecting wires from their images. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) have emerged as a promising pattern classification tool and have been used in various applications. It was found that this approach is not suitable for very thin wires and of course, not suitable at all for sub-pixel thick wires. High dimensionality of the data as such does not present a major problem for SVMs. However it is desirable to have a large number of training examples especially for high dimensional data. The main difficulty in using SVMs (or any other example-based learning method) is the need for a very good set of positive and negative examples since the performance depends on the quality of the training set.

Kasturi, Rangachar↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Space Policy Directive-1 has led to NASA partnerships with commercial entities on procurement which includes the development of the Human Landing System (HLS) [1]. With the goal of delivering human crew to the lunar surface by 2024, system uncertainties become an important obstacle to the maturation of multiple new, driving technologies and mission concepts of the HLS program. As unmitigated uncertainties have previously led to failed development programs, these risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success [2]. Sources of uncertainty include novel engine designs and configurations, increased reliance on cryogenic fluid management(CFM), and refueling technologies—which propagate as high-level performance metrics such as overall propellant mass and engine performance. Also, the occurrence of operational uncertainties—e.g. launch conditions or need to abort during the mission—can cause cascading effects on the rest of the mission that are difficult to definitively quantify, and are outside the scope of control. These concrete examples and other occurrences can be categorized as either epistemic or aleatory uncertainties.Epistemic uncertainty arises due to a lack of knowledge and can be alleviated with design and program maturation. Aleatory uncertainty is due to the inherent randomness of the system and cannot be directly reduced, unlike epistemic uncertainty. Robust design and probabilistic methods can compensate for aleatory effects. A taxonomy of uncertainty is referred to for this work [3]. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties has been demonstrated on a three-element HLS concept [1, 4], which allows tracking of current best estimates of the concept and assessment of concept design robustness against uncertainties. A sample case has been completed for this abstract, and an expansion on the methodology will be included in the final paper. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. This abstract will cover the basics of the approach used, and further details and justifications will be in the final paper.The mission profile associated with this three-element concept (Fig 1) was modeled as a set of mission events that facilitated mass changes, idles, or spacecraft maneuvers. The mission profile scope starts with each element’s NRHO orbit insertion and aggregation and ends at post-sortie rendezvous with Orion. More detail on the mission profile will be in the final paper. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as the physics framework to model the HLS architecture for applying the probabilistic methodology [5, 6]. Specifically, a parametric representation of the lander, ascent, and transfer elements and the mission profile of each element was established, with vehicle and mission parameters available as inputs to allow for a dynamic model. Each vehicle stage was modeled with high-level performance metrics, using Isp and propellant mass fraction (PMF) to remain parametric. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. These parameters were frozen at their nominal values for the purposes of baselining architecture performance and sizing the vehicle appropriately based on reference documentation [1]. Range estimating—a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities—is traditionally used with Mass Equipment Lists (MELs), but has been adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in theDYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty [7, 3]. This method was selected due to its application and insight on a system from a bottom-up perspective, independence from historical rules of thumb, and ability to generate sensitivities based on design decisions and uncertainties. As a sample case for the abstract, the boiloff rates of the vehicle elements and the loiter times during the mission (simulating launch time variations and changing window of opportunities) were used with range estimating to provide preliminary results. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology (depicted in Fig. 3, further details in final paper), the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the sample set of uncertainty parameters; 5,000 cases via Latin Hypercube Sampling were computed on the DYREQT architecture model. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Range estimating was applied to the surrogates instead of the actual models, which saves computational expense due to the bulk of cases needed for the Monte Carlo simulation as part of range estimating. Uncertainty parameters were sampled independently from triangular distributions using the DoE ranges as ‘min’ and ‘max’, and the nominal value as ‘most likely’. Based engineering intuition, some uncertainty parameters are correlated—e.g. if the main propellant has a high boil-off rate, the oxidizer should follow suit as both are related to CFM technology.While a Monte Carlo simulation samples all inputs as independent, the results would show model correlations; thus, it is efficient to sample the inputs as correlated. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo. A table for the DoE ranges and probability distribution parameters is shown in Table 1, and more details on Correlated Monte Carlo Simulations will be discussed in the final paper. The model’s resulting DoE showed that multivariate polynomial equations fit via least squares method captured its behavior accurately for the sample case. For the Correlated Monte Carlo Simulation, a positive correlation between fuel and oxidizer boiloff rates was used as a demonstration. 10,000 cases were computed with the surrogates and the launched masses for each vehicle element was collated. The results can be displayed in a probability density function (PDF), showing the impact of the uncertainty parameters chosen. Integrating the PDFs will yield a cumulative distribution function (CDF) that shows the cumulative probability of a given value on the x-axis. For the sample case, the elements’ launch mass margin was calculated and represented in as CDFs, as a demonstrated representation of figures of merit for the HLS concept. For the lander and ascent elements, the NRHO mass insertion limit is 16t; the transfer element has a limit of 30t [1]. It can be seen with Figure 2 that this probabilistic methodology can provide insight into mass margin with respect to the uncertainties being modeled. Currently, the results show that the lander (descent) vehicle element has the most restrictive design space; it is the only element to show a 10% probability of negative margin. Further analysis on the Monte Carlo results will show sensitivities for driving constraints and parameters for architecture feasibility, which can lead to establishing potential mission rules.The combination of range estimating with a parametric architecture model for HLS demonstrated the capability of this probabilistic methodology in a sample case. As the HLS development progresses, this methodology has the potential for keeping current best estimates of architecture performance for awarded concepts due to the flexibility in DYREQT’s modeling framework and its parametric nature. Concept maturation and increased epistemic knowledge can be injected into the model probabilistic modeling, and thus continue to track probability of mission success.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Machine Learning Approach to Improve Air Traffic Management Initiatives

Collaborating closely with commercial air carriers and related organizations, the Federal Aviation Administration(FAA) regulates air traffic and ensures the safety and efficiency of air operations. Air traffic controllers make strategic decisions, such as delaying, rerouting, or canceling flights, partly based on guidance provided by the FAA’s Air TrafficControl System Command Center (ATCSCC). The guidance includes, among other things, control measures known asTraffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) designed to enhance safety and improve operational efficiency. TMIs play a crucial role in managing the demand and capacity within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS). Two major TMIs that are routinely used (primarily to mitigate the adverse effects of bad weather) are Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) andGround Stops (GSs). In a GDP, flights destined for airports facing thunderstorm activity experience delays at their origin airports. This proactive approach minimizes the risk of routing aircraft through hazardous weather conditions and also replaces (fuel burning) airborne delays with ground delays. In a GS, a temporary restriction is imposed on the departure or arrival of aircraft at a specific airport or within a designated airspace. Although other TMIs (e.g., miles-in-trail) are also implemented as part of (air) traffic flow management in the NAS, the focus of this work is on GDPs and GSs. Since TMIs, by design, lead to flight delays or cancellations, it is crucial to put in place the right set of parameters(e.g., scope and duration of the GDP). For example, when the end time of a GDP extends beyond what is necessary, it imposes unnecessary delays on departing flights. This situation could occur as a result of inaccurate prediction of the(required) duration of the GDP based on the weather forecast. On the other hand, if a GDP ends prematurely before the underlying capacity constraints are resolved at the destination airport, it may result in airborne holding. The delicate balance lies in matching the termination of the GDP precisely with the resolution of capacity constraints, avoiding both the imposition of unnecessary ground delays and the need for airborne holding due to premature program termination.Failing to specify the right parameters for TMIs also leads to flight delays, creating a significant obstacle in managing the increasing traffic volumes causing increased work load for the controllers. To address this issue, we propose the integration of Machine Learning (ML) models in the traffic flow management(TFM) pipeline. In current operations, decisions are made by human experts based on extensive training, historical patterns, available traffic and weather data. Since we have an abundance of data from past events that tell us the likely impact of various TMIs, by ingesting historical data, properly trained ML models can offer valuable insights and aid human decision-making. With the FAA increasingly exploring advanced analytics, ML emerges as a focal point for enhancing TFM within the National Airspace System (NAS). As a first step, this study aims to provide traffic controllers with decision-making support for the issuance and adjustment of TMIs. Data analytics and machine learning have been previously employed to address some of the challenges associated with TMIs. Numerous studies have concentrated on various facets of TMI issuance, exploring factors influencing TMI parameters, including arrival rate, airport capacity, and delay prediction. For example, using weather forecasts, several statistical methods were used to produce probabilistic capacity profiles which in conjunction with deterministic models provided insights into the GDP planning process [1–4]. The downside of using deterministic models is that they rely on fixed inputs and predetermined rules, which lack the ability to account for the inherent uncertainty and variability present in real-world scenarios. In a separate series of studies, researchers aimed to predict the occurrences of GDPs and GSs. The majority of these studies utilized various supervised learning methods, including Decision Trees, Naive Bayes, Support VectorMachines, and Random Forests to analyze the influence of weather conditions and arrival demand on TMI incidents[5–8]. However, these studies primarily focused on predicting the incidence of TMIs without explicitly addressing the scope of TMIs, including their duration and their geographical coverage. Furthermore, the emphasis of these studies was largely on GDPs, given their higher frequency and longer duration when compared to GSs. A limited number of studies focused on predicting the parameters of TMIs, specifically addressing their duration and extent. In one such study focusing on optimizing the TMI parameters at San Francisco International Airport (SFO),the authors utilized a probabilistic forecast of fog [9]. They simulated various capacity scenarios based on the (fog)burn-off forecasts, selecting GDP parameters that minimized airborne and overall ground delays. However, this approach exclusively emphasizes stratus (fog) burn-off as the primary determinant of GDP and GS, neglecting other influential factors like severe weather events, runway closures, lower capacity than traffic demand, and other important variables. Given the complexity of predicting the TMI and determining its scope, we seek a more holistic approach. We aim to consider all significant factors that could impact TMIs and their parameters. What sets this research apart is the fusion of all data sources relevant to the issuance and adjustment of TMIs and it represents the first comprehensive attempt to optimize TMIs in this manner. Since this comprehensive solution involves various aspects, we break down the problem into smaller components and input all parameters into a unified model called the “TMI Adjuster”. Figure 1 shows the overall framework and the list of datasets used in each model. The objective of the TMI Adjuster module is to deliver reliable, consistent and expedited recommendations for the progression, adjustment, and termination of TMIs. The ML solution entails developing a pipeline capable of predicting the necessity of a TMI (e.g., GS or GDP) along with its various parameters. For example, in the case of a GS, this includes the scope of the GS either in terms of distance from the destination airport or based on pre-defined airspace sectors. Here, scope refers to those regions and departing airports that are subject to the GS. In this paper, we concentrate on the issuance of GSs in the three major airports in the New York area — LaGuardia(LGA), John F. Kennedy International (JFK), and Newark Liberty International (EWR). We fuse traffic, weather and other relevant aviation data from years 2017 to 2019 to train and validate the ML models. In particular, we use the following datasets: •Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF): meteorological forecasts specific to each airport, issued four times a day, covering predefined time periods. •TMI data: includes all GSs and GDPs along with their respective parameters. •Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM): includes traffic related data such as aircraft delays, arrival, and departure rates. •Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs): utilized to extract runway closure data and manage interdependencies between terminals in close proximity. •Flight cancellation data •Airspace Flow Programs (AFP): includes information on flight airborne holdings caused by TMIs. The data preprocessing entails transforming ASPM, TMI, AFP, NOTAMs, and weather data into an hourly format and consolidating all datasets by merging them based on date and time as the primary key. The TMI Adjuster framework comprises two parallel models: one dedicated to GS and a second model focused on GDP. As previously mentioned, our specific focus is on the GS model as a multi-classification problem. In this framework, each data point of the GS model input summarizes ten hours of data. Specifically, the data loader for the GS model generates the input and output of the model as follows: at a given time step, the input includes the actual traffic, weather, and TMI data from the two-hour window before the time step, alongside the weather forecast and scheduled traffic for the next 8 hours starting from the time step. Based on this information, the output of the GS model for each time interval consists of three dimensions. The first dimension represents a binary decision on whether there should be a GS in place for the next hour or not. The second dimension is related to the scope of the GS in the United States, and the third dimension is related to the scope of the GS in Canada (i.e., to determine if the GS impacts airports in Canada).One of the challenges with TMI modeling is the sparsity of TMI events, particularly regarding its scope. To address this challenge in the scope of the GS model output, we implement grouping. The GS scope for the US region is defined based on a list of centers that should be included when the GS is in place. With 20 centers in the US, we utilized historical data to group them into 4 categories. In particular, we summarized our historical data in a graph format where nodes represent centers, and link weights are defined based on the co-occurrence of centers in the scope parameter ofTMIs. By identified strongly connected components in this graph, we were able to partition the centers into four groups. We consider two model structures for the GS Model. Firstly, a hierarchical classification model [10], where the human decision-making for a GS is of hierarchical nature. The decision-maker first decides whether there is a need fora GS, and if the answer is yes, determines the scope. A hierarchical classification model organizes the problem into a class hierarchy, typically a tree or a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) structure, and considers the dependency of the decision in the previous step to the next component [10]. Here, we employ the local classifier per level approach, which involves training one multi-class classifier for each level of the class hierarchy. The second structure is the independent structure. In this setting, as the name suggests, we do not consider the dependency of the decisions in the different dimensions of the output of the model. Instead, for each dimension, we train a multi-class classifier independently. Table 1 summarizes GS model statistics for training, validation and testing. The table documents the effect of limiting data to the time steps when there was actually a TMI in place or when a TMI had just terminated. This resulted in a more balanced distribution of the GS class(GS positive class)versus “No GS”(GS negative class), which might help the training process. While JFK and LGA follow very similar distributions, with 40% and 42% GS positive class respectively, EWR has proportionally fewer GS incidents at 28%. Our subsequent phase involves evaluating the performance of both hierarchical structure and independent structure using different state-of-the-art multi-class classifier models such as Random Forest, Decision Trees, K-nearest Neighbors, and Logistic Regression and forecast the duration and scope of the GSs.

Farzan Masrour Shalmani↗