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DOE OSTI2023

Evolution of the Internal Climate Modes under Future Warming

Abstract Climate modes play an important role in weather and climate variability over multiple spatial and temporal scales. This research assesses Earth system model (ESM) projections of the spatiotemporal characteristics of key internal climate modes (NAM, SAM, PNA, ENSO, PDO, and AMO) under high (SSP585) and low (SSP126) radiative forcing scenarios and contextualizes those projections using historical fidelity. Time series analyses are used to assess trends and mode phase characteristics are summarized for the historical period and for the end of the twenty-first century. Spatial patterns are compared to infer morphological changes. Shifts in the power spectra are used to examine changes in variability at subannual, interannual, and interdecadal scales. Changes in time-lagged correlations are used to capture the evolution of first-order interactions. While differences in historical skill are predominantly ESM dependent, changing mode characteristics in a warmer climate also exhibit variability between individual ensemble realizations. NAM, SAM, and ENSO tend to evolve toward increased prevalence of the positive phase up to 2100 across the multimodel ensemble while the PNA and PDO exhibit little trend but increasing phase intensity. AMO characteristics are shown to depend on the method used to remove the external signal. ESMs that show higher historical fidelity tend to show more modest changes in those modes under global nonstationarity. Changes in mode interactions are found to be highly ESM dependent but exhibit broadly similar behavior to historical relationships. These findings have implications for our understanding of internal variability and make clear that the choice of ESM, and even the ESM realization, matters for applications of climate projections. Significance Statement Internal modes of variability are important to understand due to their impact on local, regional, and global weather and climate patterns. Future climate changes will not only be affected by the variability arising from these modes, but the modes will themselves change in response to the changing climate. Spatial and temporal aspects of the modes are assessed from projections of future climate and related to how well they are captured in the historical climate. This yields some measure of confidence in the changes exhibited by the models. In most cases, when historically skillful models exhibit changes that are different from those produced by less skillful models, they tend to produce more modest changes. These results, as well as the variability between model outcomes, mean decisions on which ESM to use for projections of the future climate matter significantly.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coastal Sea Level Observations Record the Twentieth-Century Enhancement of Decadal Climate Variability

Changes in the amplitude of decadal climate variability over the twentieth century have been noted, with most evidence derived from tropical Pacific sea surface temperature records. However, the length, spatial coverage, and stability of most instrumental records are insufficient to robustly identify such nonstationarity, or resolve its global spatial structure. Here, it is found that the long-term, stable, observing platform provided by tide gauges reveals a dramatic increase in the amplitude and spatial coherence of decadal (11–14-yr period) coastal sea level (ζ) variability between 1960 and 2000. During this epoch, western North American ζ was approximately out of phase with ζ in Sydney, Australia, and led northeastern U.S. ζ by approximately 1–2 years. The amplitude and timing of changes in decadal ζ variability in these regions are consistent with changes in atmospheric variability. Specifically, central equatorial Pacific wind stress and Labrador Sea heat flux are highly coherent and exhibit contemporaneous, order-of-magnitude increases in decadal power. These statistical relationships have a mechanistic underpinning: Along the western North American coastline, equatorial winds are known to drive rapidly propagating ζ signals along equatorial and coastal waveguides, while a 1–2-yr lag between Labrador Sea heat fluxes and northeastern United States ζ is consistent with a remotely forced, buoyancy-driven, mechanism. Tide gauges thus provide strong independent support for an increase in interbasin coherence on decadal time scales over the second half of the twentieth century, with implications for both the interpretation and prediction of climate and sea level variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1972

The estimation of nonstationary spectra from moving acoustic source distributions.

It is shown that the Blackman-Tukey estimation procedure provides a natural estimate of a nonstationary spectrum defined in terms of the acoustic sources. The pressure field from the moving source distribution is discussed together with the estimation procedure. The spectrum can be considered as a time-dependent partition of the variance of the pressure field over a Doppler shifted continuum of frequencies. It is found that the effect of nonstationarity on the bias and variance of the estimate is small in cases of practical interest, provided sources directionality is excluded.

Mcdaid, E.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Separation of man-made and natural patterns in high-altitude imagery of agricultural areas

A nonstationary linear digital filter is designed and implemented which extracts the natural features from high-altitude imagery of agricultural areas. Essentially, from an original image a new image is created which displays information related to soil properties, drainage patterns, crop disease, and other natural phenomena, and contains no information about crop type or row spacing. A model is developed to express the recorded brightness in a narrow-band image in terms of man-made and natural contributions and which describes statistically the spatial properties of each. The form of the minimum mean-square error linear filter for estimation of the natural component of the scene is derived and a suboptimal filter is implemented. Nonstationarity of the two-dimensional random processes contained in the model requires a unique technique for deriving the optimum filter. Finally, the filter depends on knowledge of field boundaries. An algorithm for boundary location is proposed, discussed, and implemented.

Samulon, A. S.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Comparison of cross-spectral and signal enhancement methods for mapping steady-state acoustic fields in turbomachinery ducts

The conceptual differences between the following two approaches used to measure spatial variations in steady-state acoustic pressure amplitude were examined: taking the cross spectrum between two signals from probes in the same field or taking the difference in complex Fourier transform of enhanced probe signals. Each approach is used to analyze pressure data from the inlets of two different turbomachines. A complete mapping of this steady-state field may then be used to determine its modal content. A problem with long term nonstationarity was found with both methods. Conditions for equivalence of the two methods are discussed.

Posey, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1979

A comparison of theoretical and experimental video compression designs

This paper compares theoretical and experimental picture compression designs, for images processed in 8 x 8 blocks using the Walsh-Hadamard transform (WHT). The optimum picture compression design is well known, if the mean-square error (mse) is used as the measure of distortion, and if it is assumed that the video process is a stationary first-order Markov process with a Gaussian distribution. This theoretical design gives useful results when the transform processing is done on full pictures, but gives inferior results (relative to empirical design) when transform processing is done on small 8 x 8 blocks. The use of non-Gaussian distributions for the transform components fails to improve this poor performance, which is due to the nonstationary nature of the video process. An experimentally based design procedure, which considers nonstationarity, yields significantly improved mse and subjective performance.

Jones, H. W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Plasma acceleration at the earth's magnetopause - Evidence for reconnection

Observations of high-speed plasma at the magnetopause in agreement with theoretical predictions of magnetic field reconnection are reported. Plasma ion and electron distributions measured by the quadrispherical analyzers on board the ISEE 1 and 2 spacecraft were obtained during the outbound traversal of the subsolar magnetopause. Plasma flow speeds of up to 450 km/sec were observed in the magnetopause layer, in contrast to speeds of 50 to 100 km/sec in the adjacent magnetosheath. The observations agree with the predictions of the reconnection model of the dayside magnetopause, in which the magnetopause is described as a rotational discontinuity, or a large-amplitude Alfven wave. It is noted that the lack of observations of plasma acceleration in most other cases of favorable magnetic field orientation could be a product of the rarity of magnetic recombination, or its small scale and nonstationarity.

Paschmann, G.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Speckle noise reduction of 1-look SAR imagery

Speckle noise is inherent to synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery. Since the degradation of the image due to this noise results in uncertainties in the interpretation of the scene and in a loss of apparent resolution, it is desirable to filter the image to reduce this noise. In this paper, an adaptive algorithm based on the calculation of the local statistics around a pixel is applied to 1-look SAR imagery. The filter adapts to the nonstationarity of the image statistics since the size of the blocks is very small compared to that of the image. The performance of the filter is measured in terms of the equivalent number of looks (ENL) of the filtered image and the resulting resolution degradation. The results are compared to those obtained from different techniques applied to similar data. The local adaptive filter (LAF) significantly increases the ENL of the final image. The associated loss of resolution is also lower than that for other commonly used speckle reduction techniques.

Nathan, Krishna S.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Effects of rotating frame turbulence and dynamic stall on gust response of helicopter blades

The instantaneous or frequency-time spectrum of rotating frame turbulence (RFT) is presented. This spectrum makes it possible to predict the transfer of energy with respect to frequencies and the periodically varying nonstationarity with respect to time. Attention is also given to the RFT effects on the response statistics of an isolated rotor blade for low-advance-ratio and low-altitude conditions. It is noted that spectral density, rms values, and threshold-crossing expectation rates are significantly influenced by RFT.

Madhavan, R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Nonlinear Drift-Kinetic Equation in the Presence of a Circularly Polarized Wave

Equations of the single particle motion and nonlinear kinetic equation for plasma in the presence of a circularly polarized wave of arbitrary frequency in the drift approximation are presented. The nonstationarity and inhomogeneity of the plasma-wave system are taken into account.

Khazanov, G. V.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Nonlinear Drift-Kinetic Equation in the Presence of a Circularly Polarized Wave

Khazanov, G. V.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Long-range correlation properties of coding and noncoding DNA sequences: GenBank analysis

An open question in computational molecular biology is whether long-range correlations are present in both coding and noncoding DNA or only in the latter. To answer this question, we consider all 33301 coding and all 29453 noncoding eukaryotic sequences--each of length larger than 512 base pairs (bp)--in the present release of the GenBank to dtermine whether there is any statistically significant distinction in their long-range correlation properties. Standard fast Fourier transform (FFT) analysis indicates that coding sequences have practically no correlations in the range from 10 bp to 100 bp (spectral exponent beta=0.00 +/- 0.04, where the uncertainty is two standard deviations). In contrast, for noncoding sequences, the average value of the spectral exponent beta is positive (0.16 +/- 0.05) which unambiguously shows the presence of long-range correlations. We also separately analyze the 874 coding and the 1157 noncoding sequences that have more than 4096 bp and find a larger region of power-law behavior. We calculate the probability that these two data sets (coding and noncoding) were drawn from the same distribution and we find that it is less than 10(-10). We obtain independent confirmation of these findings using the method of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), which is designed to treat sequences with statistical heterogeneity, such as DNA's known mosaic structure ("patchiness") arising from the nonstationarity of nucleotide concentration. The near-perfect agreement between the two independent analysis methods, FFT and DFA, increases the confidence in the reliability of our conclusion.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2006

Modeling the Atmospheric Phase Effects of a Digital Antenna Array Communications System

In an antenna array system such as that used in the Deep Space Network (DSN) for satellite communication, it is often necessary to account for the effects due to the atmosphere. Typically, the atmosphere induces amplitude and phase fluctuations on the transmitted downlink signal that invalidate the assumed stationarity of the signal model. The degree to which these perturbations affect the stationarity of the model depends both on parameters of the atmosphere, including wind speed and turbulence strength, and on parameters of the communication system, such as the sampling rate used. In this article, we focus on modeling the atmospheric phase fluctuations in a digital antenna array communications system. Based on a continuous-time statistical model for the atmospheric phase effects, we show how to obtain a related discrete-time model based on sampling the continuous-time process. The effects of the nonstationarity of the resulting signal model are investigated using the sample matrix inversion (SMI) algorithm for minimum mean-squared error (MMSE) equalization of the received signal

Tkacenko, A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Comparison of Forced ENSO-Like Hydrological Expressions in Simulations of the Preindustrial and Mid-Holocene

Using the water isotope- and vapor source distribution (VSD) tracer-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R, we examine changing El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like expressions in the hydrological cycle in a suite of model experiments. We apply strong surface temperature anomalies associated with composite observed El Nino and La Nina events as surface boundary conditions to preindustrial and mid-Holocene model experiments in order to investigate ENSO-like expressions in the hydrological cycle under varying boundary conditions. We find distinct simulated hydrological anomalies associated with El Nino-like ("ENSOWARM") and La Nina-like ("ENSOCOOL") conditions, and the region-specific VSD tracers show hydrological differences across the Pacific basin between El Nino-like and La Nina-like events. The application of ENSOCOOL forcings does not produce climatological anomalies that represent the equal but opposite impacts of the ENSOWARM experiment, as the isotopic anomalies associated with ENSOWARM conditions are generally stronger than with ENSOCOOL and the spatial patterns of change distinct. Also, when the same ENSO-like surface temperature anomalies are imposed on the mid-Holocene, the hydrological response is muted, relative to the preindustrial. Mid-Holocene changes in moisture sources to the analyzed regions across the Pacific reveal potentially complex relationships between ENSO-like conditions and boundary conditions. Given the complex impacts of ENSO-like conditions on various aspects of the hydrological cycle, we suggest that proxy record insights into paleo-ENSO variability are most likely to be robust when synthesized from a network of many spatially diverse archives, which can account for the potential nonstationarity of ENSO teleconnections under different boundary conditions.

boundary conditions↗

NASA NTRS2021

Direct Multipoint Observations Capturing the Reformation of a Supercritical Fast Magnetosonic Shock

Using multipoint Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) observations in an unusual string-of-pearls configuration, we examine in detail observations of the reformation of a fast magnetosonic shock observed on the upstream edge of a foreshock transient structure upstream of Earth’s bow shock. The four MMS spacecraft were separated by several hundred km, comparable to suprathermal ion gyro-radius scales or several ion inertial lengths. At least half of the shock reformation cycle was observed, with a new shock ramp rising up out of the “foot” region of the original shock ramp. Using the multipoint observations, we convert the observed time-series data into distance along the shock normal in the shock’s rest frame. That conversion allows for a unique study of the relative spatial scales of the shock’s various features, including the shock’s growth rate, and how they evolve during the reformation cycle. Analysis indicates that: the growth rate increases during reformation, electron-scale physics play an important role in the shock reformation, and energy conversion processes also undergo the same cyclical periodicity as reformation. Strong, thin electron-kinetic-scale current sheets and large-amplitude electrostatic and electromagnetic waves are reported. Evidence is also presented of nonlinear wave decay from electromagnetic whistler-mode “lion roars” to electrostatic solitary waves in the downstream plasma regime. Results highlight the critical cross-scale coupling between electron-kinetic-and ion-kinetic-scale processes and details of the nature of nonstationarity, shock-front reformation at collisionless, fast magnetosonic shocks.

D L Turner↗

NASA NTRS2021

Oblique High Mach Number Heliospheric Shocks: The Role of α Particles

Spacecraft observations of heliospheric shocks often find oscillations in the magnetic field and density both, upstream and downstream. The downstream magnetic oscillations of oblique collisionless shocks were detected by Wind with 10.9 samples/s and DSCOVR spacecraft with high temporal resolution of 50 samples/s. The density oscillations associated with the shocks are also evident in proton and α particle density by Wind (with much lower temporal resolution). Recently, we have investigated low Mach number low-β oblique shock oscillations using satellite data and 2.5D hybrid modeling with electrons modeled as fluid and ions modeled as particles and found that α particles—an important component of heliospheric plasma—may affect considerably the downstream oscillations and the shock structure. The objective of the present study is to investigate the effects of α particles on high Mach number heliospheric shocks dynamics, oscillations, nonstationarity, and shock-front rippling. We extend the study to high Mach number shocks (M > 3), investigate several α particle typical densities, and compare the results for the various shock parameters. We model the effects of α particles on the shock ramp, wake, and downstream oscillation structure and the kinetic properties of proton and α particle velocity distributions at various locations downstream of the shocks. Using the 2.5D hybrid model we found that the modeled high Mach number quasi-perpendicular shock magnetic and density structures are significantly affected by α particles with typical solar wind relative abundances, suggesting that the observed high Mach number shocks are similarly affected by α particles.

Leon Ofman↗

NASA NTRS2020

Conditions of Loss Cone Filling by Scattering on the Curved Field Lines for 30 keV Protons During Geomagnetic Storm as Inferred From Numerical Trajectory Tracing

The rate of pitch angle scattering on the curved magnetic field lines is well parameterized by the ratio of the minimum field line curvature radius to the maximum effective particle gyroradius (K = RC/rg). The critical value of this ratio (Kcr) corresponding to the loss cone filling is of special interest since it corresponds to the low altitude isotropic boundaries (IBs). The early theoretical estimates gave Kcr = 8, whereas recent estimations of the K parameter on the field lines corresponding to the observed IBs during the geomagnetic storms revealed KIB values in the range of 3–30. We numerically trace the trajectories of the 30 keV protons in the magnetic field of the global magnetohydrodynamic simulation of the intense storm in order to infer statistical distribution of Kcr. The electric field and effects of nonstationarity are neglected in this study. It is found that although the Kcr values do show some variations during the course of the storm, its range is rather narrow 4 < Kcr < 8. The result suggests that higher KIB values found in the observational studies, if not caused by the magnetosphere-ionosphere mapping error, should be attributed to some other mechanism of pitch angle scattering. The Kcr values tend to be lower (4–6) during the main phase because the region of low K values approaches the Earth and the equatorial loss cone size becomes larger due to a larger equatorial magnetic field in the near earth region. The remaining variation of Kcr is explained by the presence of the guide component of the magnetic field.

S Dubyagin↗

NASA NTRS2022

Searching for Quasi-periodic Oscillations in Astrophysical Transients Using Gaussian Processes

Analyses of quasi-periodic oscillations(QPOs)are important to understanding the dynamic behavior in manyastrophysical objects during transient events like gamma-ray bursts, solarflares, magnetarflares, and fast radiobursts. Astrophysicists often search for QPOs with frequency-domain methods such as(Lomb–Scargle)periodograms, which generally assume power-law models plus some excess around the QPO frequency. Time-series data can alternatively be investigated directly in the time domain using Gaussian process(GP)regression.While GP regression is computationally expensive in the general case, the properties of astrophysical data andmodels allow fast likelihood strategies. Heteroscedasticity and nonstationarity in data have been shown to causebias in periodogram-based analyses. GPs can take account of these properties. Using GPs, we model QPOs as astochastic process on top of a deterministicflare shape. Using Bayesian inference, we demonstrate how to infer GPhyperparameters and assign them physical meaning, such as the QPO frequency. We also perform model selectionbetween QPOs and alternative models such as red noise and show that this can be used to reliablyfind QPOs. Thismethod is easily applicable to a variety of different astrophysical data sets. We demonstrate the use of this methodon a range of short transients: a gamma-ray burst, a magnetarflare, a magnetar giantflare, and simulated solarflare data.

Moritz Hubner↗