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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Anomaly Detection and Identification Using a Leave-One-Variable-Out Method

At nuclear power plants (NPPs), anomaly detection and identification (i.e., determining the causes of anomalies) are important tasks for ensuring the safe and efficient operation of NPPs. These tasks are currently labor-intensive and costly, and are made more difficult by the size and complexity of NPP systems. An alternative approach to conducting these tasks is to automate them, such as via the reconstruction-based contribution method, which is a well-researched unsupervised machine learning method that uses a data-driven model of anomaly-free behavior to detect events and then identify each variable’s contributions to those events. The present effort developed a novel contribution approach that utilized a leave-one-variable-out (LOVO) model, with which each variable is predicted using all the other variables. The novelty lay in transforming this model into a reconstruction model and modifying the identification algorithm to work with the new reconstruction model. To evaluate this method in a controlled environment, a synthetic dataset based on spring-mass-damper (SMD) systems (commonly found in mechanical engineering references) was used, with known anomalies introduced into the system. The proposed method successfully detected the anomalies and afforded insights into their causes, thus enabling the appropriate identifications to be made.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Direct Uranium Isotopic Analysis of Swipe Surfaces by Microextraction-ICP-MS

The ability to directly measure uranium isotope ratios on environmental swipes has been achieved through a solution-based microextraction process and represents a significant advancement toward the development of a rapid method to analyze international nuclear safeguard samples. Here, a microextraction probe is lowered and sealed onto the swipe surface, and analytes within the sampling site (~8 mm2) are dissolved and extracted into a flowing solvent of 2% nitric acid (HNO 3 ). The mobilized species are subsequently directed into an inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometer (ICP-MS) for accurate and precise isotope ratio determination. This work highlights the novelty of the sampling mechanism, particularly with the direct coupling of the microextraction probe to the ICP-MS and measurement of uranium isotope ratios. The preliminary method detection limit for the microextraction-ICP-MS method, utilizing a quadrupole-based MS, was determined to be ~50 pg of 238 U. Additionally, precise and accurate isotope ratio measurements were achieved on uranium reference materials for both the major ( 235 U/ 238 U) and minor ( 234 U/ 238 U and 236 U/ 238 U) ratios. While the present work is focused on directly measuring uranium isotopic systems on swipe surfaces for nuclear safeguards and verification applications, the benefits would extend across many applications in which direct solid sampling is sought for elemental and isotopic analysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel defoamer for processing nuclear waste: Testing and performance

Abstract Legacy radioactive waste from nuclear weapons material processing is the biggest environmental challenge in the state of South Carolina, and one of the biggest in the United States. Although substantial progress has been made in processing and vitrifying high‐level radioactive waste at the Savannah River site, approximately 35 million gallons remains to be treated and dispositioned. In this article, we show the development of a new defoamer for use in the processing of high‐level radioactive waste. The application of the new defoamer is not only more effective at controlling foam but will shorten the batch processing time leading to safer and more efficient processing. This has the potential to help shorten the overall site mission lifetime, saving the federal government hundreds of millions of dollars. The novel aspect of the new defoamer is its effectiveness and stability in the harsh conditions needed for processing high‐level radioactive waste: high temperatures, pH 4–13, strong oxidizing and reducing agents, and numerous metal catalysts. The defoamer will replace an existing antifoam agent that decomposes to form multiple flammable gases. Because the existing antifoam agent decomposes quickly, processing changes increased processing time. Statement of novelty We demonstrate that a new defoamer has been developed for use in processing high‐level radioactive waste. This novel defoamer is effective and stable in the harsh processing conditions with no detectable flammable by‐products. Because the existing antifoam agent decomposes quickly, processing changes, including lowering acid addition rates and evaporation rates, increased processing time. The new defoamer is not only more effective at controlling foam but will shorten the batch processing time and lead to safer and more efficient processing by eliminating the production of flammable gases. Statement of industrial relevance Foaming is of great concern in many industrial processes involving three‐phase gas/liquid/fine‐solids systems, like in water evaporation, mineral floatation, air sparging in situ remediation techniques, and in those found in the paper industry.

Lambert, Dan P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Population ecology and biogeochemical implications of ssDNA and dsDNA viruses along a permafrost thaw gradient

Anthropogenic-driven climate change is accelerating permafrost thaw, threatening to release vast carbon stores through increased microbial activity. While microbial roles are increasingly studied, the contributions of viruses remain largely unexplored, in part due to soil-associated technical challenges that have hindered their detection and characterization. Here, we applied an optimized virion enrichment workflow along a permafrost thaw gradient, identifying 9,963 viral populations (vOTUs), including single- and double-stranded DNA viruses, with 99.9% novelty compared to other soils. Hosts were predicted for 38% of vOTUs, spanning nine archaeal, and 36 bacterial phyla, 22% of which were linked to metagenome-assembled genomes, including key carbon-cycling taxa. Genomic analyses revealed 811 putative auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs) from 658 vOTUs, nearly half involved in carbon processing. These included 59 glycoside hydrolases (GH) across nine GH families, 45 for monosaccharide degradation, and seven involved in short-chain fatty acid and C1 metabolism, linking viruses to both early and late stages of carbon turnover. Additionally, six vOTUs carried racD, which may stabilize microbial necromass and promote long-term carbon storage. Viral and AMG functional diversity increased with thaw stage, indicating that viruses might participate in a broadening range of microbial metabolic processes as permafrost thaws. These findings expand our understanding of virus contributions in microbial carbon processing and suggest their important role in deciphering soil carbon fate under changing climate conditions.

Biological and medical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Use of Machine Learning on PMU Data for Transmission System Fault Analysis

Synchrophasor technology has been used for monitoring, control, and protection of bulk power system for over 10 years. Deployment of phasor measurement units (PMUs) in the USA power system has surpassed 3000 units installed in the transmission substations as stand-alone intelligent electronic devices (IEDs) or as a software add-on to other devices such as digital protective relays (DPRs) or digital fault recorders (DFRs). By now, thousands of terabytes of PMU data may have been captured and stored by various transmission system operators (TSOs) and independent system operators (ISOs). This creates an opportunity to deploy advanced machine learning (ML) techniques to detect and classify faults recorded by PMUs automatically to be used by the system operators for rapid, critical decision-making when manual analysis of the past or unfolding events is not feasible. In this paper we offer a brief background on how the automated fault analysis may be done using DPR and/or DFR data, and compare some of the legacy approaches to the new ML approaches in the context of the system-wide PMU recordings. We then offer insights from developing practical ML solutions that have been applied on field recordings captured by close to 450 PMUs from all three US interconnections (Western, Eastern and ERCOT) over two years (2016-2017). We identify and illustrate ML challenges we addressed: inaccurate data, data with scarce and temporally imprecise fault labels, data recorded by PMUs sparsely located at substations resulting in the fault records taken afar from the ends of the faulted lines, data containing only positive sequence values, and data taken at different voltage levels. We then illustrate the ML model results for fault analysis under different application scenarios. The novelty of this study is not only in the design, implementation, and performance analysis of the ML algorithms, but also in the use of advanced fault modelling and simulation approaches to improve the training results when developing supervised ML models for fault detection and classification. Extensive simulations of faults were conducted on a 14-bus power system to create a training dataset with over 1400 accurately labelled faults. This dataset was applied to enhance the accuracy of fault detection and classification of machine learning-based models trained with small number of labelled faults in large datasets recorded in the grid interconnections ranging from 5,000 to 70,000 buses.

Synchrophasors, Machine Learning, Fault Analysis, ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evolution of LIBS technology to mobile instrumentation for expediting firearm-related investigations at the laboratory and the crime scene

Gunshot residue (GSR) is one of the few forensic disciplines that lack accurate screening techniques. This study proposes using a mobile LIBS instrument to detect inorganic GSR and compares performance to a previously validated laboratory instrument. The mobile LIBS is designed with advanced configurations specifically for on-site GSR analysis, including a CMOS detector and a sampling chamber that holds up to six typical GSR collection devices with separate gas flow ports to prevent cross-contamination. A significant novelty of the portable instrument is its image magnification, which allows quick searching and visualization of GSR particle morphology. The single-particle imaging and elemental composition capability is one of a kind and offers superior confirmatory features for GSR. The mobile LIBS performance was evaluated for residues collected from the hands of shooters (100 samples) and non-shooters (200 background samples), analyzed sequentially by the mobile instrument and then the laboratory instrument. Accuracies better than 98.8% were obtained by both instruments, demonstrating their suitability for trace IGSR detection from skin specimens. Implementation of this methodology is anticipated to drastically speed up response times (i.e., from several hours per sample by standard SEM-EDS practice to a few minutes by LIBS). The screening methods can be easily incorporated into workflows to improve decision-making processes at the crime scene and laboratory settings, reduce backlogs, and improve case management.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Preliminary Evidence of Gas-Phase Water Splitting on Holmium Nitrogen Oxide Clusters

Preliminary Evidence of Gas-Phase Water Splitting on Holmium Nitrogen Oxide Clusters Christopher A. Zarzana1, Makayla R. Baxter , Introduction: Molecular hydrogen is a potential energy carrier that could be used to help implement a clean energy economy if it is generated from splitting of water. Improvements in the efficiencies of water-splitting electrolyzers relies on development of novel materials with enhanced performance. However, research in this area is slowed due to underdeveloped understanding of the mechanisms of device performance due to challenges interrogating the fundamental chemical reactions at play in bulk materials. Studies of the intrinsic reactivity of clusters that are representative of the reactive sites of these materials can increase understanding of the fundamental reaction mechanisms involved in hydrogen production, allowing for more efficient development of new water-splitting materials. Methods: Holmium tetranitrato ([Ho(NO3)4]-) clusters were generated in gas-phase using the electrospray ionization source of a Bruker (Billerica, MA, USA) micrOTOF-Q II quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometer. Spray solutions consisted of aqueous holmium (Ho) nitrate solutions (at nominally 3 mM) diluted to 30 µM in acetonitrile. The holmium (Ho) tetranitrato clusters were isolated using the quadrupole and were subsequently activated and allowed to react with background water in the collision cell. High resolution, high mass accuracy spectra were recorded using the time-of-flight. Mass accuracy was ensured using external calibration with Agilent (Santa Clara, CA, USA) ESI-L Low Concentration tuning mix. Preliminary data: Collisional activation of the holmium tetranitrato complexes ([Ln(NO3)4]-) resulted in an expected series of ions resulting from the loss of ·NO and ·NO2. This included an ion at m/z = 382.885 assigned as [HoO2(NO3)3]- (theoretical m/z=382.884, error=-1.2 ppm), resulting from loss of ·NO, and an ion at m/z=366.890 assigned as [HoO(NO3)3]- (theorical m/z=366.889, error=-1.8 ppm), resulting from loss of ·NO2. Additional ions were detected that would result from more complicated losses from [Ho(NO3)4]-, including ions at m/z=320.898 assigned as [HoO2(NO3)2]- (theoretical m/z=320.896, error=-4.9 ppm), at m/z=304.904 assigned as [HoO(NO3)2]- (theoretical m/z=304.901, error=-8.1 ppm, very low signal), and at m/z=288.908 assigned as [Ho(NO3)2]- (theoretical m/z=288.907, error=-3.4 ppm). This ion series would arise from loss of some combination of ·NO, ·NO2, and ·NO3, although it is not known whether these losses occur sequentially (e.g. loss of ·NO and ·NO3 to yield [HoO2(NO3)2]-) or as a single species (e.g. direct loss of N2O4). These ions were accompanied by a complementary series representing addition of a single water molecule. This included an ion at m/z=338.908 assigned as [HoO2(NO3)2H2O]- (theoretical m/z=338.907, error=-4.1 ppm), an ion at m/z=322.912 assigned as [HoO(NO3)2H2O]- (theoretical m/z=322.912, error=1.2 ppm), and an ion at m/z=306.918 assigned as [Ho(NO3)2H2O]-, (theoretical m/z=306.918, error=-3.7 ppm). An additional hydrated ion was observed at m/z=276.921 assigned as [HoO2(NO3) H2O]- (theoretical m/z=276.919, error=-7.3 ppm), although corresponding dehydrated ion was not observed. An additional ion was observed at m/z=367.898 that has been assigned as [Ho(NO3)3OH]- (theoretical m/z=367.897, error=-2.5 ppm). It is hypothesized that this ion arises from addition of water to [Ho(NO3)3]- followed by elimination of a hydrogen radical. Neither [Ho(NO3)3]- nor [Ho(NO3)3H2O]- were detected, suggesting that, if the hypothesis is correct, addition of water to [Ho(NO3)3]- and its subsequent splitting is rapid. Elimination of HNO3 from [Ho(NO3)4H2O]- could also yield [Ho(NO3)3OH]-; however, no [Ho(NO3)4H2O]- ions were observed. Novelty: Potential evidence of water splitting on gas-phase lanthanide clusters offers a way to study the intrinsic reactivity of hydrogen-generation materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

New method for detecting fast neutrino flavor conversions in core-collapse supernova models with two-moment neutrino transport

Fast-pairwise neutrino oscillations potentially affect many aspects of core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe): the explosion mechanism, neutrino signals, and nucleosynthesis in the ejecta. This particular mode of collective neutrino oscillations has a deep connection to the angular structure of neutrinos in momentum space; for instance, the appearance of electron-neutrino lepton number (ELN) angular crossings in momentum space is a good indicator of the occurrence of flavor conversions. However, many multidimensional CCSN simulations are carried out with approximate neutrino transport (such as two-moment methods), which limits access to the angular distributions of neutrinos, i.e., inhibits ELNcrossing searches. In this paper, we develop a new method of searching for ELN crossing in these CCSN simulations. The required data is the zeroth and first angular moments of neutrinos and the matter profile, all of which are available in CCSN models with the two-moment method. One of the novelties of our new method is the use of a ray-tracing neutrino transport to determine ELNs in the direction of the stellar center. It is designed to compensate for shortcomings of the crossing searches with only two angular moments. We assess the capability of the method by carrying out a detailed comparison with results of full Boltzmann neutrino transport in 1D and 2D CCSN models. In this work, we find that the ray-tracing neutrino transport improves the accuracy of crossing searches; indeed, the appearance/disappearance of the crossings is accurately detected even in the region of forward-peaked angular distributions. The new method is computationally cheap and has the benefit of efficient parallelization; hence, it will be useful for ELN-crossing searches in any CCSN models that employ two-moment neutrino transport.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A generalist–specialist trade-off between switchgrass cytotypes impacts climate adaptation and geographic range

Polyploidy results from whole-genome duplication and is a unique form of heritable variation with pronounced evolutionary implications. Different ploidy levels, or cytotypes, can exist within a single species, and such systems provide an opportunity to assess how ploidy variation alters phenotypic novelty, adaptability, and fitness, which can, in turn, drive the development of unique ecological niches that promote the coexistence of multiple cytotypes. Switchgrass, Panicum virgatum, is a widespread, perennial C4 grass in North America with multiple naturally occurring cytotypes, primarily tetraploids (4×) and octoploids (8×). Using a combination of genomic, quantitative genetic, landscape, and niche modeling approaches, we detect divergent levels of genetic admixture, evidence of niche differentiation, and differential environmental sensitivity between switchgrass cytotypes. Taken together, these findings support a generalist (8×)–specialist (4×) trade-off. Our results indicate that the 8× represent a unique combination of genetic variation that has allowed the expansion of switchgrass’ ecological niche and thus putatively represents a valuable breeding resource.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Bayesian inferencing framework for ultrasound wave speed measurements in metal additive manufacturing

Process-related changes during metal additive manufacturing introduce microstructural variability in the material properties of printed parts, directly affecting component reliability. Accurate estimation of these property variations with part performance are essential for quality assurance. Ultrasound testing offers a non-destructive means to estimate mechanical properties and detect defects; however, conventional analysis methods often neglect the influence of microstructural variability, limiting their effectiveness. Here, this research presents a Bayesian inference technique for quantifying wave speed uncertainty from ultrasound measurements of metal additive manufactured parts. By integrating prior ultrasound data with a Bayesian model, the proposed approach generates posterior density estimates of wave speed that systematically account for manufacturing-induced variability and uncertainty. The novelty of this research lies in applying a Bayesian framework to analyze experimental ultrasound measurements within the context of metal additive manufacturing variability. The method enhances the accuracy of wave speed estimation by 64%, defect position by 50% and increases confidence associated with wave speed variance by 30% across different porosity levels, thereby providing a robust foundation for improved decision-making and increased reliability in additively manufactured components.

Additive manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fracture Network Quantification during CO2 Injection

This is the presentation prepared for the ARMA 2025 (59th US Rock Mechanics/Geomechanics Symposium) Conference held in Santa Fe, New Mexico, June 8-11, 2025. Accurate mapping and quantification of these networks are essential to ensure the integrity of CO2 storage reservoirs, understand and reduce potential leakage, and maintain long-term environmental safety. This study presents a novel machine learning-driven approach, integrated with geomechanical analysis, to quantify fracture networks and assess their spatial distribution during CO2 injection. This paper combines microseismic monitoring data with principles of hydraulic diffusivity and geomechanical analysis to characterize reservoir scale fracture network. The novelty of our approach lies in its capacity to assimilate time-dependent pressure data and microseismicity into a cohesive framework, which not only identifies microseismic triggering fronts but also tracks fracture distribution during active injection. Besides, leveraging image log data and analysis our approach also provides another angle of the insights to solidate the fracture networks understanding and geomechanical impacts. Key results from our study include the detection of over 100 distinct fracture clusters across the injection site, with fracture orientations strongly correlated with the prevailing in-situ stress field.

CO2 storage and sequestration↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fracture Network Quantification during CO2 Injection

This is the conference paper accompanying an oral presentation at the ARMA 2025 (59th US Rock Mechanics/Geomechanics Symposium) Conference held in Santa Fe, New Mexico, June 8-11, 2025. Accurate mapping and quantification of these networks are essential to ensure the integrity of CO2 storage reservoirs, understand and reduce potential leakage, and maintain long-term environmental safety. This study presents a novel machine learning-driven approach, integrated with geomechanical analysis, to quantify fracture networks and assess their spatial distribution during CO2 injection. This paper combines microseismic monitoring data with principles of hydraulic diffusivity and geomechanical analysis to characterize reservoir scale fracture network. The novelty of our approach lies in its capacity to assimilate time-dependent pressure data and microseismicity into a cohesive framework, which not only identifies microseismic triggering fronts but also tracks fracture distribution during active injection. Besides, leveraging image log data and analysis our approach also provides another angle of the insights to solidate the fracture networks understanding and geomechanical impacts. Key results from our study include the detection of over 100 distinct fracture clusters across the injection site, with fracture orientations strongly correlated with the prevailing in-situ stress field.

CO2 storage and sequestration↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cluster-Graph Fingerprinting: A Framework for Quantitative Analysis of Machine-Learned Interatomic Model Training and Simulation Data

Machine-learned interatomic models represent a significant advancement in simulation methods, extending the predictive ability of first-principles methods to previously inaccessible length and time scales. However, the data-driven nature of these models can lead to difficult-to-detect errors that can compromise prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel fingerprinting approach based on the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) ML-IAM graph-based descriptor. Our strategy enables efficient and statistically rigorous analysis of system configurations used in ML-IAM training and those generated by their application, e.g., in molecular dynamics simulations. We demonstrate that these fingerprints can effectively assess novelty of a configuration relative to an existing data set and determine dissimilarity among individual configurations, which are two key tasks in workflows for active learning-based ML-IAM training, data set curation, and on-the-fly uncertainty quantification.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Versatile multi-energy hard x-ray camera to study confined and unconfined fast electron dynamics and anisotropies (Invited)

A powerful and flexible hard x-ray (HXR) camera has been recently installed and tested on the WEST tokamak (CEA, France) in collaboration with the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. The diagnostic is a pinhole camera fielded with a 2D pixel detector equipped with a 1 mm thick CdTe sensor. The novelty of this diagnostic technique is the detector’s capability of adjusting the threshold energy at the pixel level. This innovation provides great flexibility in the energy configuration, allowing simultaneous space, energy, and time resolved x-ray measurements. The novel camera has been used to measure the core radiation from non-Maxwellian (fast) electrons accelerated by Lower Hybrid (LH) waves and also the beam–target emission of tungsten in the divertor region produced by fast electron losses interacting with the target. In addition, anisotropic hard x-ray emission has been detected for the first time at the WEST core and edge plasma, with opposite toroidal intensity trends. Finally, experimental vertical and toroidal HXR profiles have been successfully reproduced with the LH code LUKE.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

TransformerG2G: Adaptive time-stepping for learning temporal graph embeddings using transformers

Dynamic graph embedding has emerged as a very effective technique for addressing diverse temporal graph analytic tasks (i.e., link prediction, node classification, recommender systems, anomaly detection, and graph generation) in various applications. Such temporal graphs exhibit heterogeneous transient dynamics, varying time intervals, and highly evolving node features throughout their evolution. Hence, incorporating long-range dependencies from the historical graph context plays a crucial role in accurately learning their temporal dynamics. In this paper, we develop a graph embedding model with uncertainty quantification, TransformerG2G, by exploiting the advanced transformer encoder to first learn intermediate node representations from its current state (t) and previous context (over timestamps [t–1,t–l], l is the length of context). Moreover, we employ two projection layers to generate lower-dimensional multivariate Gaussian distributions as each node's latent embedding at timestamp t. We consider diverse benchmarks with varying levels of "novelty" as measured by the TEA (Temporal Edge Appearance) plots. Here, our experiments demonstrate that the proposed TransformerG2G model outperforms conventional multi-step methods and our prior work (DynG2G) in terms of both link prediction accuracy and computational efficiency, especially for high degree of novelty. Furthermore, the learned time-dependent attention weights across multiple graph snapshots reveal the development of an automatic adaptive time stepping enabled by the transformer. Importantly, by examining the attention weights, we can uncover temporal dependencies, identify influential elements, and gain insights into the complex interactions within the graph structure. For example, we identified a strong correlation between attention weights and node degree at the various stages of the graph topology evolution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Planck 2018 results. VII. Isotropy and Statistics of the CMB

Analysis of the Planck 2018 data set indicates that the statistical properties of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies are in excellent agreement with previous studies using the 2013 and 2015 data releases. In particular, they are consistent with the Gaussian predictions of the ΛCDM cosmological model, yet also confirm the presence of several so-called “anomalies” on large angular scales. The novelty of the current study, however, lies in being a first attempt at a comprehensive analysis of the statistics of the polarization signal over all angular scales, using either maps of the Stokes parameters, Q and U , or the E -mode signal derived from these using a new methodology (which we describe in an appendix). Although remarkable progress has been made in reducing the systematic effects that contaminated the 2015 polarization maps on large angular scales, it is still the case that residual systematics (and our ability to simulate them) can limit some tests of non-Gaussianity and isotropy. However, a detailed set of null tests applied to the maps indicates that these issues do not dominate the analysis on intermediate and large angular scales (i.e., ℓ ≲ 400). In this regime, no unambiguous detections of cosmological non-Gaussianity, or of anomalies corresponding to those seen in temperature, are claimed. Notably, the stacking of CMB polarization signals centred on the positions of temperature hot and cold spots exhibits excellent agreement with the ΛCDM cosmological model, and also gives a clear indication of how Planck provides state-of-the-art measurements of CMB temperature and polarization on degree scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ventenata dubia projected to expand in the western United States despite future novel conditions

Abstract Distributions of both native and invasive species are expected to shift under future climate. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to explore future habitats, but sources of uncertainty including novel climate conditions may reduce the reliability of future projections. We explore the potential spread of the invasive annual grass ventenata ( Ventenata dubia ) in the western United States under both current and future climate scenarios using boosted regression tree models and 30 global climate models (GCMs). We quantify novel climate conditions, prediction variability arising from both the SDMs and GCMs, and the agreement among GCMs. Results demonstrate that currently suitable habitat is concentrated inside the invaded range of the northwest, but substantial habitat exists outside the invaded range in the Southern Rockies and southwestern US mountains. Future suitability projections vary greatly among GCMs, but GCMs commonly projected decreased suitability in the invaded range and increased suitability along higher elevations of interior mountainous areas. Climate novelty did not appear to undermine the prediction reliability in many cases where the climate–species relationship was fully represented by the occurrence data. GCM‐derived variability resulting from variation in future cool season precipitation and temperature seasonality was greatest in the Rocky Mountains. SDM‐derived variability was higher in currently suitable habitat, and few GCMs projections agreed that these areas would contain future suitable habitat. However, while prediction variability was high, many GCM projections agreed that parts of the Rocky, Wasatch, and Uinta Mountains would contain highly suitable habitat in the future. As disturbances in the interior mountains occur in coming decades, reducing some natural barriers to invasion, land managers, and conservationists will need to monitor for ventenata in post‐disturbance environments. Changes to invasion potential may not play out for several decades, but results related to current potential may have applications for early detection and rapid response planning.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Genetic Transfer in Action: Uncovering DNA Flow in an Extremophilic Microbial Community

ABSTRACT Horizontal genetic transfer (HGT) is a significant driver of genomic novelty in all domains of life. HGT has been investigated in many studies however, the focus has been on conspicuous protein‐coding DNA transfers that often prove to be adaptive in recipient organisms and are therefore fixed longer‐term in lineages. These results comprise a subclass of HGTs and do not represent exhaustive (coding and non‐coding) DNA transfer and its impact on ecology. Uncovering exhaustive HGT can provide key insights into the connectivity of genomes in communities and how these transfers may occur. In this study, we use the term frequency‐inverse document frequency (TF‐IDF) technique, that has been used successfully to mine DNA transfers within real and simulated high‐quality prokaryote genomes, to search for exhaustive HGTs within an extremophilic microbial community. We establish a pipeline for validating transfers identified using this approach. We find that most DNA transfers are within‐domain and involve non‐coding DNA. A relatively high proportion of the predicted protein‐coding HGTs appear to encode transposase activity, restriction‐modification system components, and biofilm formation functions. Our study demonstrates the utility of the TF‐IDF approach for HGT detection and provides insights into the mechanisms of recent DNA transfer.

Microbiology↗