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At least 37 records · Page 2

Fast and Accurate Core Analysis by the Full-Immersion Pressure-Pulse Decay: Part 1—Theory

Summary Core-scale measurements are considered the ground truth that oil and gas or electric utility companies use to predict the migration of fluids such as oil, natural gas, carbon dioxide, or brine deep underground during their extraction or injection operations. To provide a greater understanding of petrophysical properties of low-permeability geologic formations such as shales and tight gas sandstones, this study introduces a novel core-analysis procedure. The technique follows conventional pressure-pulse-decay permeametry, where the pressure in an inlet chamber adjacent to a cylindrical core plug undergoes a rapid pressurization, the system is shut in, and the pressure reaches a new equilibrium. However, unlike a standard unidirectional pressure-pulse decay, the full-immersion pressure-pulse decay (Hannon 2019) applies a pressure disturbance to the entire outer surface area of the sample. This article covers the numerical simulator designed to model flow through an anisotropic porous sample in this scenario. The model assumes distinct but uniform permeabilities along the radial and axial directions of the cylindrical plug sample. When extracting a plug vertically (or perpendicular to bedding), the permeability along the radial direction associates with the horizontal permeability (i.e., parallel to bedding), whereas in the axial direction, flow occurs perpendicular to bedding (a vertical permeability). Investigations of these model outputs demonstrate an approximately 20-fold decrease in time to complete a full-immersion experiment compared with conventional pressure-pulse decay. Furthermore, the pressure-decay curves resulting from the full-immersion method have slightly different shapes than those resulting from other unidimensional transient methods. These differences begin to demonstrate that, under achievable experimental conditions, the analysis of pressure data from one full-immersion test could enable the simultaneous estimation of the apparent permeabilities parallel and perpendicular to bedding of a cylindrical sample in addition to its porosity. A follow-up article finalizes the proof of this capability with a parameter-estimation procedure and presents experimental verification through a proof-of-concept study. Described in greater detail in that article, the parameter estimator requires multiple forward simulations to analyze the data, which behooves minimizing the compute time for each simulation. By using an alternating direction implicit time-marching scheme and a structured but variably spaced grid, the numerical simulator built for this purpose provides a forward model output with suitable accuracy in approximately 0.5 seconds.

Energy & Fuels↗

Estimating an airborne dipole source using 3-D wavefield simulations and seismic receivers on the ground

Acoustic signals can couple to the ground, providing an opportunity to use seismic stations to investigate airborne sources. The study of Bishop et al. used wavefield simulations in a fluid-solid medium to quantify the role of topography on the seismic (ground) recordings of a monopole source in the air. We build upon this study by linking wavefield forward modelling with the source estimation code MTUQ, which can accommodate point forces or moment tensors in a solid medium, as well as sources in the air (or water) if they are enabled by the forward-modelling solver. We perform a series of synthetic numerical experiments to demonstrate that a dipole airborne source can be estimated using ground-based receivers, even within the presence of realistic topography. We investigate the influence of receiver coverage, topography, and assumed source location on the estimated results. The established capabilities raise the prospects for future efforts to estimate dipole sources in 3-D models that include heterogeneity in the air and the earth in addition to topography.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A comparative study of machine learning models for predicting the state of reactive mixing

Mixing phenomena are important mechanisms controlling flow, species transport, and reaction processes in fluids and porous media. Accurate predictions of reactive mixing are critical for many Earth and environmental science problems such as contaminant fate and remediation, macroalgae growth, and plankton biomass evolution. Here, to investigate the evolution of mixing dynamics under different scenarios (e.g., anisotropy, fluctuating velocity fields), a finite-element-based numerical model was built to solve the fast, irreversible bimolecular reaction-diffusion equations to simulate a range of reactive-mixing scenarios. A total of 2,315 simulations were performed using different sets of model input parameters comprising various spatial scales of vortex structures in the velocity field, time-scales associated with velocity oscillations, the perturbation parameter for the vortex-based velocity, anisotropic dispersion contrast (i.e., ratio of longitudinal-to-transverse dispersion), and molecular diffusion. The outputs comprised concentration profiles of reactants and products. The inputs to and outputs from these simulations were concatenated into feature and label matrices, respectively, to train 20 different machine learning (ML) models intended to emulate system behavior. These 20 ML emulators, based on linear methods, Bayesian methods, ensemble learning methods, and multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), were trained to classify the state of mixing and predict three quantities of interest (QoIs) characterizing species production, decay (i.e., average concentration, square of average concentration), and degree of mixing (i.e., variances of species concentration). Unsurprisingly, linear classifiers and regressors failed to reproduce the QoIs; however, ensemble methods (classifiers and regressors) and the MLP model accurately classified the state of reactive mixing and the QoIs. Among ensemble methods, random forest and decision-tree-based AdaBoost faithfully predicted the QoIs. At run time, trained ML emulators produced results times faster than the finite-element simulations. Due to their low computational expense and high accuracy, ensemble and MLP models are excellent emulators for these numerical simulations and great utilities in uncertainty quantification exercises, which can require 1,000s of forward model runs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cosmic Inference: Constraining Parameters with Observations and a Highly Limited Number of Simulations

We look at cosmological probes that pose an inverse problem where the measurement result is obtained through observations, and the objective is to infer values of model parameters that characterize the underlying physical system-our universe, from these observations and theoretical forward-modeling. The only way to accurately forward-model physical behavior on small scales is via expensive numerical simulations, which are further “emulated” due to their high cost. Emulators are commonly built with a set of simulations covering the parameter space with Latin hypercube sampling and an interpolation procedure; the aim is to establish an approximately constant prediction error across the hypercube. In this paper, we provide a description of a novel statistical framework for obtaining accurate parameter constraints. The proposed framework uses multi-output Gaussian process emulators that are adaptively constructed using Bayesian optimization methods with the goal of maintaining a low emulation error in the region of the hypercube preferred by the observational data. In this paper, we compare several approaches for constructing multi-output emulators that enable us to take possible inter-output correlations into account while maintaining the efficiency needed for inference. Using a Lyα forest flux power spectrum, we demonstrate that our adaptive approach requires considerably fewer-by a factor of a few in the Lyα P(k) case considered here-simulations compared to the emulation based on Latin hypercube sampling, and that the method is more robust in reconstructing parameters and their Bayesian credible intervals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Transport Modeling of Kinetically Limited Microscale Extraction Systems: Droplet and Supported Liquid Membrane Separations

Microfluidic droplet extraction devices can be used to efficiently measure solute phase transfer kinetics in liquid–liquid extraction systems. In this work, a droplet extraction apparatus was constructed using off-the-shelf and custom 3D printed parts for less than 110 USD. The interfacial kinetics of the transfer of Pu(IV) between an aqueous nitric acid phase and a 5 v/v% tridodecylamine (TDA) in toluene phase were characterized by determining the extent of Pu(IV) transfer between phases at different flow rates. Forward interfacial rate constants calculated from this data using an analytical model are 5.6 × 10 –3 mm s –1 under extraction (aqueous-to-organic solute transfer) conditions and 3.3 × 10 –3 mm s –1 under stripping (organic-to-aqueous solute transfer) conditions. The analytical model is valid when the rate of solute transfer across the interface between the two liquid phases has pseudo-first-order reversible reaction kinetics and is slow relative to the rate of solute transport to the interface. The change in the outlet concentration with residence time determined using the analytical model was compared with the results of a numerical model accounting for advection/diffusion to the interface in addition to kinetically limited interfacial solute transfer. These calculations revealed that for systems with forward interfacial rate constants greater than approximately 10 –2 mm s –1 , the analytical model must be supplemented with a numerical transport model accounting for an additional advection/diffusion mass transfer resistance. This threshold corresponds to a Damköhler number of one. The measured interfacial kinetic rate constants for Pu(IV)/TDA were used in a supported liquid membrane (SLM) numerical model, which showed that the Pu(IV) phase transfer kinetics are fast enough for use in a practical separation.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Lattice Boltzmann simulation of the dissolution of slag in alkaline solution using real-shape particles

Highlights: • A dissolution numerical model was proposed to capture the real dissolution kinetics of slag in alkaline solution. • The log forward dissolution rate of Si was described as a function of NBO/T and solution pH. • A threshold solid volume fraction of 0.688 was found for a voxel in 3D, 63.8% larger than that for a pixel in 2D. • The proposed dissolution numerical model provides a reliable alternative to study the dissolution kinetics of slag. A dissolution numerical model was proposed in this study to capture the real dissolution kinetics of slag in alkaline solution. It consists of three modules, i.e. (i) simulation of the initial particle parking structure of slag in alkaline solution using real-shape particles of slag, (ii) simulation of the chemical reactions between slag and solution based on the transition state theory, and (iii) simulation of the physical transport of aqueous ions using the lattice Boltzmann method. This dissolution numerical model was verified using experimental results, showing reasonable accuracy. After verification, the dissolution numerical model was implemented to study the influences of temperature and particle shape using a proper recipe of slag in alkaline solution. This recipe was designed to avoid solid phase precipitation or gel formation via thermodynamic analysis. The simulation results showed faster dissolution kinetics of slag when using higher temperatures and more irregular particle shapes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

On the use of adjoints in the inversion of observed quasi-static deformation

An adjoint-based conjugate gradient algorithm provides an efficient means for imaging sources of deformation within the Earth, such as volume stresses associated with fluid flow in aquifers and reservoirs. For time intervals over which the overburden deforms elastically, one can calculate the gradient elements for a single model update using just two numerical simulations. The first is a forward run that is used to compute the residuals associated with the given iteration. The second simulation is to evaluate the application of the adjoint operator to the residuals. In this adjoint calculation, the residual displacements are applied as sources at the measurement locations, driving the deformation in the simulation. The volume stress on the source grid blocks, in response to the residual displacements, provide the gradient components. We apply this technique to satellite-based interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) line-of-sight displacements that were observed over an oil reservoir in California’s Central Valley. Furthermore, we find that the adjoint-based gradient estimates, requiring 18 CPU seconds, agree with conventional numerical calculations that take over 3700 CPU seconds to compute. Conjugate gradient algorithms utilizing the conventional approach and adjoint-based gradient computations give roughly the same reductions in misfit and similar final estimates of reservoir volume change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Initialized Earth system prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales

Initialized Earth system predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction model in a state as consistent as possible to observations, and running it forward in time for up to ten years. Skillful predictions at time slices from subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), seasonal to interannual (S2I) and seasonal to decadal (S2D) offer information useful for various stakeholders, from agriculture to water resource management, and human and infrastructure safety. In this Review, we examine the processes influencing predictability, and discuss estimates of skill across S2S, S2I and S2D timescales. There are encouraging signs that skillful predictions can be made: at S2S timescales, there has been some skill in predicting the Madden-Julian Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation; at S2I in predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation; and at S2D, in predicting variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. However, challenges remain, and future work must prioritise reducing model error, more effectively communicating forecasts to users, and increasing process and mechanistic understanding that could increase predictive skill and, in turn, confidence. As numerical models progress towards Earth system models, initialized predictions are expanding to include prediction of sea-ice, air pollution, terrestrial and ocean biochemistry which can bring clear benefit to society and various stakeholders.

climate prediction↗

Differential methods for assessing sensitivity in biological models

Differential sensitivity analysis is indispensable in fitting parameters, understanding uncertainty, and forecasting the results of both thought and lab experiments. Although there are many methods currently available for performing differential sensitivity analysis of biological models, it can be difficult to determine which method is best suited for a particular model. In this paper, we explain a variety of differential sensitivity methods and assess their value in some typical biological models. First, we explain the mathematical basis for three numerical methods: adjoint sensitivity analysis, complex perturbation sensitivity analysis, and forward mode sensitivity analysis. We then carry out four instructive case studies. (a) The CARRGO model for tumor-immune interaction highlights the additional information that differential sensitivity analysis provides beyond traditional naive sensitivity methods, (b) the deterministic SIR model demonstrates the value of using second-order sensitivity in refining model predictions, (c) the stochastic SIR model shows how differential sensitivity can be attacked in stochastic modeling, and (d) a discrete birth-death-migration model illustrates how the complex perturbation method of differential sensitivity can be generalized to a broader range of biological models. Finally, we compare the speed, accuracy, and ease of use of these methods. We find that forward mode automatic differentiation has the quickest computational time, while the complex perturbation method is the simplest to implement and the most generalizable.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A physics-informed and hierarchically regularized data-driven model for predicting fluid flow through porous media

This paper presents a new deep learning data-driven model for predicting structure dependent pore-fluid velocity fields in rock. The model is based on a Convolutional Auto-Encoder (CAE) artificial neural network capable of learning from image data generated by direct numerical simulations of fluid flow through pore-structures, such as by Lattice Boltzmann or molecular dynamics methods. The main novelty of the model in comparison to previous CAE-based data-driven approaches consists of three parts. The first is a methodology for decomposing the full-domain of the porous media into sub-regions, or “sub-domains”, in order to reduce the overall size of the CAE, batch process the sub-domains in parallel, and enable the CAE to learn local and generalizable nonlinear mappings of pore-fluid velocities. The second consists of embedding the finite difference solutions of the incompressible Navier-Stokes and continuity equations into convolutional layers prior to the CAE in order to provide the CAE with knowledge of fluid dynamics physics (PhyFlow). The third main novelty is that the training of the CAE is regularized with a hierarchical loss function that encourages the learning of fluid flow patterns (in a way similar to ranked modes in principal component analysis), ranking from most to least important. This is shown to increase the stability in learning, reduce over-fitting, and promote interpretability of the CAE neural network layers (HierCAE). The comprehensive new data-driven model, which we call the PhyFlow-HierCAE model, is shown to exhibit improved accuracy and generalizability of flow field predictions over conventional CAE models, attributable to the embedded physical knowledge and the hierarchical regularization, as well as realize orders of magnitude speed-ups in computation times as a surrogate for the direct numerical simulations. Examples of training and forward predictions on unseen pore-structures are provided and evaluated for data from Lattice Boltzmann and molecular dynamics simulations of pore-fluid flow. The model is shown to be a fast and accurate emulator (or “surrogate”) for predicting effective permeability of unseen pore-structures based on learning from relatively small direct numerical simulation datasets.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Massively parallel modeling and inversion of electrical resistivity tomography data using PFLOTRAN

Abstract. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is a broadly accepted geophysical method for subsurface investigations. Interpretation of field ERT data usually requires the application of computationally intensive forward modeling and inversion algorithms. For large-scale ERT data, the efficiency of these algorithms depends on the robustness, accuracy, and scalability on high-performance computing resources. In this regard, we present a robust and highly scalable implementation of forward modeling and inversion algorithms for ERT data. The implementation is publicly available and developed within the framework of PFLOTRAN, an open-source, state-of-the-art massively parallel subsurface flow and transport simulation code. The forward modeling is based on a finite-volume discretization of the governing differential equations, and the inversion uses a Gauss–Newton optimization scheme. To evaluate the accuracy of the forward modeling, two examples are first presented by considering layered (1D) and 3D earth conductivity models. The computed numerical results show good agreement with the analytical solutions for the layered earth model and results from a well-established code for the 3D model. Inversion of ERT data, simulated for a 3D model, is then performed to demonstrate the inversion capability by recovering the conductivity of the model. To demonstrate the parallel performance of PFLOTRAN's ERT process model and inversion capabilities, large-scale scalability tests are performed by using up to 131 072 processes on a leadership class supercomputer. These tests are performed for the two most computationally intensive steps of the ERT inversion: forward modeling and Jacobian computation. For the forward modeling, we consider models with up to 122 ×106 degrees of freedom (DOFs) in the resulting system of linear equations and demonstrate that the code exhibits almost linear scalability on up to 10 000 DOFs per process. On the other hand, the code shows superlinear scalability for the Jacobian computation, mainly because all computations are fairly evenly distributed over each process with no parallel communication.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Statistical Treatment of Inverse Problems Constrained by Differential Equations-based Models with Stochastic Terms

This paper introduces a statistical treatment of inverse problems constrained by models with stochastic terms. The solution of the forward problem is given by a distribution represented numerically by an ensemble of simulations. The goal is to formulate the inverse problem, in particular the objective function, to find the closest forward distribution (i.e., the output of the stochastic forward problem) that best explains the distribution of the observations in a certain metric. We use proper scoring rules, a concept employed in statistical forecast verification, namely energy, variogram, and hybrid (i.e., combination of the two) scores. We study the performance of the proposed formulation in the context of two applications: a coefficient field inversion for subsurface flow governed by an elliptic partial differential equation with a stochastic source and a parameter inversion for power grid governed by differential-algebraic equations. In both cases we show that the variogram and the hybrid scores produce better parameter inversion results than does the energy score, whereas the energy score leads to better probabilistic predictions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Accelerating phase field simulations through a hybrid adaptive Fourier neural operator with U-net backbone

Prolonged contact between a corrosive liquid and metal alloys can cause progressive dealloying. For one such process as liquid-metal dealloying (LMD), phase field models have been developed to understand the mechanisms leading to complex morphologies. However, the LMD governing equations in these models often involve coupled non-linear partial differential equations (PDE), which are challenging to solve numerically. In particular, numerical stiffness in the PDEs requires an extremely refined time step size (on the order of 10 -12 s or smaller). This computational bottleneck is especially problematic when running LMD simulation until a late time horizon is required. This motivates the development of surrogate models capable of leaping forward in time, by skipping several consecutive time steps at-once. In this paper, we propose a U-shaped adaptive Fourier neural operator (U-AFNO), a machine learning (ML) based model inspired by recent advances in neural operator learning. U-AFNO employs U-Nets for extracting and reconstructing local features within the physical fields, and passes the latent space through a vision transformer (ViT) implemented in the Fourier space (AFNO). We use U-AFNOs to learn the dynamics of mapping the field at a current time step into a later time step. We also identify global quantities of interest (QoI) describing the corrosion process (e.g., the deformation of the liquid-metal interface, lost metal, etc.) and show that our proposed U-AFNO model is able to accurately predict the field dynamics, in spite of the chaotic nature of LMD. Most notably, our model reproduces the key microstructure statistics and QoIs with a level of accuracy on par with the high-fidelity numerical solver, while achieving a significant 11, 200 × speed-up on a high-resolution grid when comparing the computational expense per time step. Finally, we also investigate the opportunity of using hybrid simulations, in which we alternate forward leaps in time using the U-AFNO with high-fidelity time stepping. We demonstrate that while advantageous for some surrogate model design choices, our proposed U-AFNO model in fully auto-regressive settings consistently outperforms hybrid schemes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Comprehensive Review of DPF-based Flash Neutron Radiography Viability

MJOLNIR (MegaJOule Neutron Imaging Radiography) is a Dense Plasma Focus (DPF) being developed by LLNL as a prototype to assess the viability of a DPF as a flash neutron radiography source. To date, MJOLNIR has discharged up to 1.3 MJ of stored energy into a deuterium plasma load and achieved yields up to 1.2 × 10 12 neutrons per discharge. The MJOLNIR pulse length already meets the preliminary requirements for flash neutron radiography and we demonstrate in this report plausible paths forward to meet the yield requirement in a deuterium plasma. MJOLNIR’s neutron spot size has been characterized to be a factor of two greater than radiography requirements and presents the greatest challenge. A path forward to sufficiently shrinking spot size is outlined in this report, using a combination of gas dopants and a smaller anode implosion radius. A DPF is a plasma device with coaxial electrodes whose discharge ends with a stagnated hot and dense plasma column on-axis, at the tip of the central anode. Inside the MJOLNIR DPF plasma column, both thermal and beam target processes generate neutrons. To understand the underlying physics of neutron generation inside the DPF, we model the experiment using a combination of kinetic, fluid, and reduced-order models we have been developing for over ten years at LLNL. Our numerical tools are also pivotal to charting the path forward because they allow us to numerically test out which modifications would improve the DPF’s characteristic output.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Learning stochastic dynamics and predicting emergent behavior using transformers

We show that a neural network originally designed for language processing can learn the dynamical rules of a stochastic system by observation of a single dynamical trajectory of the system, and can accurately predict its emergent behavior under conditions not observed during training. We consider a lattice model of active matter undergoing continuous-time Monte Carlo dynamics, simulated at a density at which its steady state comprises small, dispersed clusters. We train a neural network called a transformer on a single trajectory of the model. The transformer, which we show has the capacity to represent dynamical rules that are numerous and nonlocal, learns that the dynamics of this model consists of a small number of processes. Forward-propagated trajectories of the trained transformer, at densities not encountered during training, exhibit motility-induced phase separation and so predict the existence of a nonequilibrium phase transition. Transformers have the flexibility to learn dynamical rules from observation without explicit enumeration of rates or coarse-graining of configuration space, and so the procedure used here can be applied to a wide range of physical systems, including those with large and complex dynamical generators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Investigating the Roughness and Advance Rate of the Weathering Interface (Final Report)

To understand geological systems that are important to our national well-being -- such as nuclear waste repositories or hydraulically fractured rocks -- requires the ability to make quantitative projections of the evolution of rock-water systems forward in time. A fundamental goal of much of our geochemical research was focused on development of numerical models of reactive transport to simulate the evolution of natural water-rock systems. The geochemical community has provided such models and they are rapidly being improved with field-model cross-testing. This project was especially impactful in field-model testing for well-constrained weathering systems to provide new conceptual understanding of how these systems function.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Time-series machine-learning error models for approximate solutions to parameterized dynamical systems

This work proposes a machine-learning framework for modeling the error incurred by approximate solutions to parameterized dynamical systems. In particular, we extend the machine-learning error models (MLEM) framework proposed in Ref. Freno and Carlberg (2019) to dynamical systems. The proposed Time-Series Machine-Learning Error Modeling (T-MLEM) method constructs a regression model that maps features – which comprise error indicators that are derived from standard a posteriori error-quantification techniques – to a random variable for the approximate-solution error at each time instance. The proposed framework considers a wide range of candidate features, regression methods, and additive noise models. We consider primarily recursive regression techniques developed for time-series modeling, including both classical time-series models (e.g., autoregressive models) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), but also analyze standard non-recursive regression techniques (e.g., feed-forward neural networks) for comparative purposes. Finally, numerical experiments conducted on multiple benchmark problems illustrate that the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, which is a type of RNN, outperforms other methods and yields substantial improvements in error predictions over traditional approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗

What Polarimetric Weather Radars Offer to Cloud Modelers: Forward Radar Operators and Microphysical/Thermodynamic Retrievals

The utilization of polarimetric weather radars for optimizing cloud models is a next frontier of research. It is widely understood that inadequacies in microphysical parameterization schemes in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is a primary cause of forecast uncertainties. Due to its ability to distinguish between hydrometeors with different microphysical habits and to identify “polarimetric fingerprints” of various microphysical processes, polarimetric radar emerges as a primary source of needed information. There are two approaches to leverage this information for NWP models: (1) radar microphysical and thermodynamic retrievals and (2) forward radar operators for converting the model outputs into the fields of polarimetric radar variables. In this paper, we will provide an overview of both. Polarimetric measurements can be combined with cloud models of varying complexity, including ones with bulk and spectral bin microphysics, as well as simplified Lagrangian models focused on a particular microphysical process. Combining polarimetric measurements with cloud modeling can reveal the impact of important microphysical agents such as aerosols or supercooled cloud water invisible to the radar on cloud and precipitation formation. Some pertinent results obtained from models with spectral bin microphysics, including the Hebrew University cloud model (HUCM) and 1D models of melting hail and snow coupled with the NSSL forward radar operator, are illustrated in the paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗