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NASA NTRS2015

Results of Lunar Impact Observations During Geminid Meteor Shower Events

Meteoroids are natural particles with origins from comets, asteroids, and planets from within the solar system. On average, 33 metric tons (73,000 lb) of meteoroids hit Earth everyday with velocities ranging between 20 and 72 km/s. However, the vast majority of these meteoroids disintegrate in the atmosphere and never make it to the ground. The Moon also encounters the same meteoroid flux, but has no atmosphere to stop them from striking the surface. At such speeds even a small meteoroid has incredible energy. A meteoroid with a mass of only 5 kg can excavate a crater over 9 m across, hurling 75 metric tons (165,000 lb) of lunar soil and rock on ballistic trajectories above the lunar surface. Meteoroids with particle sizes as small as 100 micrometer (1 Microgram) can do considerable damage to spacecraft in Earth's orbit and beyond. Impacts can damage thermal protection systems, radiators, windows, and pressurized containers. Secondary effects might include partial penetration or pitting, local deformation, and surface degradation that can cause a failure upon reentry. The speed, mass, density, and flux of meteoroids are important factors for design considerations and mitigation during operations. Lunar operations (unmanned and manned) are also adversely affected by the meteoroid flux. Ejecta from meteoroid impacts is also part of the lunar environment and must be characterized. Understanding meteoroid fluxes and the associated risk of meteoroids impacting spacecraft traveling in and beyond Earth's orbit is the objective of the Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) located at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). One of the MEO's programs is meteoroid impact monitoring of the Moon. The large collecting area of the night side of the lunar disk provides statistically significant counts of meteoroids that can provide useful information about the flux of meteoroids in the hundreds of grams to kilograms size range. This information is not only important for characterizing the lunar environment associated with larger lunar impactors, but also provides statistical data for verification and improving meteoroid prediction models. Current meteoroid models indicate that the Moon is struck by a sporadic meteoroid with a mass greater than 1 kg over 260 times per year. This number is very uncertain since observations for objects in this mass range are few. Factors of several times, higher or lower, are easily possible. Meteor showers are also present to varying degrees at certain times of the year. The Earth experiences meteor showers when encountering the debris left behind by comets, which is also the case with 2 the Moon. During such times, the rate of shower meteoroids can greatly exceed that of the sporadic background rate for larger meteoroids. Looking for meteor shower impacts on the Moon at about the same time as they occur on Earth will yield important data that can be fed into meteor shower forecasting models, which can then be used to predict times of greater meteoroid hazard on the Moon. The Geminids are one such meteor shower of interest. The Geminids are a major meteor shower that occur in December with a peak intensity occurring usually during the 13th and 14th of the month and appearing to come from a radiant in the constellation Gemini. The Geminids are interesting in that the parent body of the debris stream is an asteroid, which along with the Quadrantids, are the only major meteor showers not originating from a comet. The Geminids parent body, 3200 Phaethon, is about 5 km in diameter and has an orbit that has a 22deg inclination which intersects the main asteroid belt and has a perihelion less than half of Mercury's perihelion distance. Thus, its orbit crosses those of Mars, Earth, Venus, and Mercury. The Geminid debris stream is by far the most massive as compared to the others. When the Earth passes through the stream in mid-December, a peak intensity of approx. equal 120 meteors per hour can be seen. Because of the Geminids' relatively large intensity and unique origin, it is important to monitor and gain information about the Geminids so as to improve their forecasts and understand their contribution to the meteoroid environment in Earth's orbit and at the Moon. It is the purpose of this Technical Memorandum (TM) to document two lunar observing periods coinciding with the Geminid meteor showers that occurred in 2006 and 2010.

Suggs, R. J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nonthermal Ionization of Kilonova Ejecta: Observable Impacts

The characteristic rapid rise and decline at optical wavelengths of a kilonova is the product of the low ejecta mass (≲0.05 M ⊙ ) and high ejecta velocity (≳0.1c). We show that, even at very early times (≲2 days), regions of ejecta fall below critical density and temperature thresholds at which nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) effects become important. Here, we present an approximate method for calculating the ionization state of the ejecta that accounts for the NLTE impact of high-energy electrons produced in the beta decay of freshly synthesized r-process elements. We find that incorporating ionization from high-energy electrons produces an “inverted” and “blended” ionization structure, where the most highly ionized species are located in the fastest moving homologous ejecta, and multiple ionization states coexist. In radiation transport calculations, the higher degree of ionization reduces line blanketing in optical bands, leading to improved agreement with the light-curve properties of AT 2017gfo, such as the duration, decay rates, brightness, and colors. Our quasi-NLTE implementation helps to alleviate tensions in kilonova modeling: for high-velocity (∼0.3 c) ejecta components, our models require less mass for a given peak brightness in optical bands, by as much as a factor of 3; our models can explain the presence of observed features associated to Sr II, W III, Se III, and Te III under conditions where LTE models would predict only neutral species; and we naturally predict the coexistence of species like Sr II and Ce III without the need for fine-tuning of the ejecta properties.

High energy astrophysics↗
NASA NTRS1999

Observed Impacts

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗
NASA NTRS2000

Section on Observed Impacts on El Nino

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. As El Nino climate forecasting grows out of the research mode into operational mode, the research focus shifts to include the design of appropriate modes of utilization. Awareness of and sensitivity to the costs of prediction errors also grow. For example, one major forecasting model failed to predict the very large El Nino event of 1997, when Pacific sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record. Although simple correlations between El Nino events and crop yields may be suggestive, more sophisticated work is needed to understand the subtleties of the interplay among the global climate system, regional climate patterns, and local agricultural systems. Honesty about the limitations of an forecast is essential, especially when human livelihoods are at stake. An end-to-end analysis links tools and expertise from the full sequence of ENSO cause-and-effect processes. Representatives from many disciplines are needed to achieve insights, e.g, oceanographers and atmospheric scientists who predict El Nino events, climatologists who drive global climate models with sea-surface temperature predictions, agronomists who translate regional climate connections in to crop yield forecasts, and economists who analyze market adjustments to the vagaries of climate and determine the value of climate forecasts. Methods include historical studies to understand past patterns and to test hindcasts of the prediction tools, crop modeling, spatial analysis and remote sensing. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional ID forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds. The stability of human enterprises depends on understanding both the potentialities and the limits of predictability. Farmers rely on past experience to anticipate and respond to fluctuations in the biophysical systems on which their livelihoods depend. Now scientists are improving their ability to predict some major elements of climate variability. The improvements in the reliability of El Nino forecasts are encouraging, but seasonal forecasts for agriculture are not, and will probably never be completely infallible, due to the chaotic nature of the climate system. Uncertainties proliferate as we extend beyond Pacific sea-surface temperatures to climate teleconnections and agricultural outcomes. The goal of this research is to shed as a clear light as possible on these inherent uncertainties and thus to contribute to the development of appropriate responses to El Nino and other seasonal forecasts for a range of stakeholders, which, ultimately, includes food consumers everywhere.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗
NASA NTRS2012

Assessing the Impact of Observations on Numerical Weather Forecasts Using the Adjoint Method

The adjoint of a data assimilation system provides a flexible and efficient tool for estimating observation impacts on short-range weather forecasts. The impacts of any or all observations can be estimated simultaneously based on a single execution of the adjoint system. The results can be easily aggregated according to data type, location, channel, etc., making this technique especially attractive for examining the impacts of new hyper-spectral satellite instruments and for conducting regular, even near-real time, monitoring of the entire observing system. This talk provides a general overview of the adjoint method, including the theoretical basis and practical implementation of the technique. Results are presented from the adjoint-based observation impact monitoring tool in NASA's GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation and forecast system. When performed in conjunction with standard observing system experiments (OSEs), the adjoint results reveal both redundancies and dependencies between observing system impacts as observations are added or removed from the assimilation system. Understanding these dependencies may be important for optimizing the use of the current observational network and defining requirements for future observing systems

Gelaro, Ronald↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assessing the Impact of Observations in a Multi-Year Reanalysis (MERRA-2)

Operational and quasi-operational weather prediction centers have been routinely assessing the contribution from various observing systems to reducing errors in short-range forecasts for a number of years now. The original technique, Forecast Sensitivity-based Observation Impact (FSOI), involves definition of a forecast error measure and evaluation of sensitivities with respect to changes in the observations that require adjoint operators of both the underlying tangent linear model and corresponding analysis technique. The present work applies FSOI to reanalysis and aims at providing an expanded view of the contribution of various observing systems over nearly 40 years of assimilation. Specifically, this study uses MERRA-2 given that its supporting software includes all ingredients necessary to calculate FSOI. Part of this work shows how the quality of forecasts improves over the course of the reanalysis, and examines forecast sensitivities relevant to FSOI. The assessment here finds, for example, that: conventional observations are a major player in reducing forecast error throughout the 40 years of reanalysis, even when their volume reduces from 45\% in the earlier periods to about 5% in the modern era; satellite radiances, especially microwave instruments are major contributors to error reduction from the early single platform TIROS-N days to the current multi-platform scenario, though their fractional contribution reduces slightly from the early 2000's onward after the increased availability of wind observation from aircraft and atmospheric motion vectors, and the introduction of GPSRO; infrared instruments play a secondary role to microwave but are significant still, with the peculiar result of fractional impacts contribution from modern hyperspectral instruments being roughly similar to those from early infrared instruments. The dependence of results on the chosen error measure is emphasized throughout.

Todling, Ricardo↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assessing the Impact of Observations in a Multi-Year Reanalysis

Operational and quasi-operational weather prediction centers have been routinely assessing the contribution from various observing systems to reducing errors in short-range forecasts for a number of years now. The original technique, Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impact (FSOI), involves definition of a forecast error measure and evaluation of sensitivities with respect to changes in the observing system that require adjoint operators of both the underlying tangent linear model and corresponding analysis technique. The present work applies FSOI to Reanalysis and aims at providing an expanded view of the contribution of various observing systems over nearly 40 years of assimilation. Specifically, this study uses MERRA-2 given that its supporting software includes all ingredients necessary to calculate FSOI. Part of this work shows how the quality of forecasts improves over the course of the reanalysis, and examines forecast sensitivities relevant to FSOI. The assessment here finds, for example, that: conventional observations are a major player in reducing forecast error throughout the 40 years of reanalysis, even when their volume reduces from 45% in the earlier periods to about 5% in the modern era; satellite radiances, especially microwave instruments are major contributors to error reduction from the early single platform TIROS-N days to the current multi-platform scenario; infrared instruments play a secondary role to microwave but are significant still, with the peculiar result of fractional impacts contribution from modern hyperspectral instruments being roughly similar to those from early infrared instruments. The dependence of results on the chosen error measure is emphasized throughout.

Fabio L R Diniz↗
NASA NTRS2011

Assessing the Impact of Advanced Satellite Observations in the NASA GEOS-5 Forecast System Using the Adjoint Method

The adjoint of a data assimilation system provides a flexible and efficient tool for estimating observation impacts on short-range weather forecasts. The impacts of any or all observations can be estimated simultaneously based on a single execution of the adjoint system. The results can be easily aggregated according to data type, location, channel, etc., making this technique especially attractive for examining the impacts of new hyper-spectral satellite instruments and for conducting regular, even near-real time, monitoring of the entire observing system. In this talk, we present results from the adjoint-based observation impact monitoring tool in NASA's GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation and forecast system. The tool has been running in various off-line configurations for some time, and is scheduled to run as a regular part of the real-time forecast suite beginning in autumn 20 I O. We focus on the impacts of the newest components of the satellite observing system, including AIRS, IASI and GPS. For AIRS and IASI, it is shown that the vast majority of the channels assimilated have systematic positive impacts (of varying magnitudes), although some channels degrade the forecast. Of the latter, most are moisture-sensitive or near-surface channels. The impact of GPS observations in the southern hemisphere is found to be a considerable overall benefit to the system. In addition, the spatial variability of observation impacts reveals coherent patterns of positive and negative impacts that may point to deficiencies in the use of certain observations over, for example, specific surface types. When performed in conjunction with selected observing system experiments (OSEs), the adjoint results reveal both redundancies and dependencies between observing system impacts as observations are added or removed from the assimilation system. Understanding these dependencies appears to pose a major challenge for optimizing the use of the current observational network and defining requirements for future observing systems.

Gelaro, Ron↗
NASA NTRS2014

Estimation of Crop Gross Primary Production (GPP): I. Impact of MODIS Observation Footprint and Impact of Vegetation BRDF Characteristics

Accurate estimation of gross primary production (GPP) is essential for carbon cycle and climate change studies. Three AmeriFlux crop sites of maize and soybean were selected for this study. Two of the sites were irrigated and the other one was rainfed. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), the green band chlorophyll index (CIgreen), and the green band wide dynamic range vegetation index (WDRVIgreen) were computed from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data. We examined the impacts of the MODIS observation footprint and the vegetation bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) on crop daily GPP estimation with the four spectral vegetation indices (VIs - NDVI, EVI, WDRVIgreen and CIgreen) where GPP was predicted with two linear models, with and without offset: GPP = a × VI × PAR and GPP = a × VI × PAR + b. Model performance was evaluated with coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of variation (CV). The MODIS data were filtered into four categories and four experiments were conducted to assess the impacts. The first experiment included all observations. The second experiment only included observations with view zenith angle (VZA) ≤ 35◦ to constrain growth of the footprint size,which achieved a better grid cell match with the agricultural fields. The third experiment included only forward scatter observations with VZA ≤ 35◦. The fourth experiment included only backscatter observations with VZA ≤ 35◦. Overall, the EVI yielded the most consistently strong relationships to daily GPP under all examined conditions. The model GPP = a × VI × PAR + b had better performance than the model GPP = a × VI × PAR, and the offset was significant for most cases. Better performance was obtained for the irrigated field than its counterpart rainfed field. Comparison of experiment 2 vs. experiment 1 was used to examine the observation footprint impact whereas comparison of experiment 4 vs. experiment 3 was used to examine the BRDF impact. Changes in R2, RMSE,CV and changes in model coefficients "a" and "b" (experiment 2 vs. experiment 1; and experiment 4 vs. experiment 3) were indicators of the impacts. The second experiment produced better performance than the first experiment, increasing R2 (↑0.13) and reducing RMSE (↓0.68 g C m−2 d−1) and CV (↓9%). For each VI, the slope of GPP = a × VI × PAR in the second experiment for each crop type changed little while the slope and intercept of GPP = a × VI × PAR + b varied field by field. The CIgreen was least affected by the MODIS observation footprint in estimating crop daily GPP (R2, ↑0.08; RMSE, ↓0.42 g C m−2 d−1; and CV, ↓7%). Footprint most affected the NDVI (R2, ↑0.15; CV, ↓10%) and the EVI (RMSE, ↓0.84 g C m−2 d−1). The vegetation BRDF impact also caused variation of model performance and change of model coefficients. Significantly different slopes were obtained for forward vs. backscatter observations, especially for the CIgreen and the NDVI. Both the footprint impact and the BRDF impact varied with crop types, irrigation options, model options and VI options.

Chlorophyll↗
NASA NTRS1998

Ice-Associated Impact Craters on Mars: Implications from MOLA Observations

Impact features adjacent to the permanent North Polar Cap on Mars provide a unique perspective on the crater formation and modification process. Little attention has been previously paid to the dozen's of ice-associated or 'frost-filled' craters north of 70N on Mars. We have examined Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) cross-sections of 13 of these features between 7ON and 82N in an effort to understand cavity modification processes potentially associated with the advance and retreat of the North Polar ice cap. Here we treat the general geometric properties of these impact features and focus attention on one almost entirely filled example (i.e., 32 km diameter, located at 77N, 89E) for which high resolution Viking Orbiter images (50 m per pixel) provide key constraints for interpreting MOLA's meter-precision topographic measurements.

Garvin, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Galileo and Ulysses dust measurements - From Venus to Jupiter

The Galileo and Ulysses spaceprobes carry two similar dust detectors through interplanetary space from Venus to Jupiter. Impacts are reported which correspond to dust particles above a mass threshold of about 10 exp 13 g for which complete records exist. Between December 1989 and January 1992 Galileo repeatedly traversed interplanetary space between 0.7 and 2.26 AU and recorded 374 impacts. The observed impact rates ranged from 0.1 to about 3 impacts per day strongly dependent on whether the spacecraft moved toward or away from the sun. From October 1990 to January 1992 the Ulysses spacecraft had reached a distance of 5.17 AU from the sun and had recorded 72 impacts at rates between 0.1 and 0.5 per day. Inside about 2 AU the observed fluxes are compatible with a population of interplanetary dust particles moving on low to moderately eccentric and low inclination orbits. Outside this distance a dust particle population on different orbits is required in order to explain the Ulysses data.

Gruen, E.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Robustness of Observing System Simulation Experiments

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are used to investigate the potential performance of proposed new instruments on numerical weather prediction (NWP). As OSSEs involve a framework in which the atmosphere and observations are all completely simulated, it is necessary to perform validation of the OSSE to ensure that it is sufficiently realistic to provide useful experimental results. A common issue that affects the forecast skill and observation impacts is the tendency of OSSEs to have insufficient model error compared to NWP in the real world. In this work, two versions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) NWP OSSE framework are compared, with the newer framework having more simulated forecast model error than the older framework due to changes to the NWP system. The performance of the updated OSSE is validated against corresponding behavior of the same NWP system in the real world in terms of the simulated observations, the analysis increments, forecast error, and observation impacts. OSSE results of analysis and forecast impacts for three proposed new observation systems are also compared between the older and newer frameworks to evaluate the robustness of the OSSE experiments and the role of model error in observation impacts. These three new instruments are the Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) hyperspectral infrared sounder (GXS), the Midwave Infrared Sounding of Temperature and humidity in a Constellation for Winds (MISTiC Winds) atmospheric motion vectors, and additional Global Navigation Satellite System Radio Occultations (GNSS-RO).

Observing System Simulation Experiments↗
NASA NTRS1992

The Manson impact structure - Its contribution to impact materials observed at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary

The Manson impact structure (MIS) in Iowa is an excellently preserved complex crater that formed 65.7 Ma ago at the K/T boundary. Drill and seismic data have been used to identify three primary terranes within the 35-km diameter crater: (1) an outermost ring graben composed of listric normal fault blocks that structurally preserve Paleozoic and Cretaceous strata, impact ejecta, and possibly earliest Tertiary lake sediments; (2) a crater moat region of slumped and fallback materials overlain by Tertiary lake sediments in most areas; and (3) a central peak of uplifted basement rock capped in many areas by impact breccia. It is argued that concentrations of Ir at a K/T boundary exposure near Gubbio, Italy and clasts of glass reported from the K/T boundary in Haiti are consistent with possible production in the MIS.

Anderson, Raymond R.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Inclusion of Linearized Moist Physics in Nasa's Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation Tools

Inclusion of moist physics in the linearized version of a weather forecast model is beneficial in terms of variational data assimilation. Further, it improves the capability of important tools, such as adjoint-based observation impacts and sensitivity studies. A linearized version of the relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) convection scheme has been developed and tested in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation tools. A previous study of the RAS scheme showed it to exhibit reasonable linearity and stability. This motivates the development of a linearization of a near-exact version of the RAS scheme. Linearized large-scale condensation is included through simple conversion of supersaturation into precipitation. The linearization of moist physics is validated against the full nonlinear model for 6- and 24-h intervals, relevant to variational data assimilation and observation impacts, respectively. For a small number of profiles, sudden large growth in the perturbation trajectory is encountered. Efficient filtering of these profiles is achieved by diagnosis of steep gradients in a reduced version of the operator of the tangent linear model. With filtering turned on, the inclusion of linearized moist physics increases the correlation between the nonlinear perturbation trajectory and the linear approximation of the perturbation trajectory. A month-long observation impact experiment is performed and the effect of including moist physics on the impacts is discussed. Impacts from moist-sensitive instruments and channels are increased. The effect of including moist physics is examined for adjoint sensitivity studies. A case study examining an intensifying Northern Hemisphere Atlantic storm is presented. The results show a significant sensitivity with respect to moisture.

Convection↗
NASA NTRS1991

Are some chondrule rims formed by impact processes? - Observations and experiments

The ability of high-speed impacts into a parent body regolith to account for the textures and compositions observed for rims on some chondrules is presently supported by both observational and experimental data. Experimental results obtained with a light-gas gun encompass recovered-grain characteristics ranging from fragmented projectile grains mixed with melted aerogel, demonstrating that rim-like thermal and mechanical alterations of projectiles may be due to a high-velocity encounter with a low density target. Irrespective of conclusions for other types of rims, granular and opaque rim characteristics seem inconsistent with nebular condensation.

Bunch, T. E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Electron microscope observations of impact crater debris amongst contaminating particulates on materials surfaces exposed in space in low-Earth orbit

Debris particles extracted from a small sampling region on the leading edge of the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) spacecraft have been examined by analytical transmission electron microscopy and the elemental frequency observed by energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometry and compared with upper atmosphere (Earth) particle elemental frequency and the average elemental compositions of interplanetary dust particles. A much broader elemental distribution was observed for the exposed spacecraft surface debris milieu. Numerous metal microfragment analyses, particularly aluminum and stainless steel, were compared with scanning electron microscope observations-of impact crater features, and the corresponding elemental spectra on selected LDEF aluminium tray clamps and stainless steel bolts. The compositions and melt features for these impact craters and ejecta have been shown to be consistent with microcrystalline debris fragments in the case of aluminum, and these observations suggest an ever changing debris milieu on exposed surfaces for space craft and space system materials.

Murr, L. E.↗