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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical Model Reduction Driven by Machine Learning for Parametric Advection-Diffusion-Reaction Problems in the Presence of Noisy Data

Abstract We propose a new approach to generate a reliable reduced model for a parametric elliptic problem, in the presence of noisy data. The reference model reduction procedure is the directional HiPOD method, which combines Hierarchical Model reduction with a standard Proper Orthogonal Decomposition, according to an offline/online paradigm. In this paper we show that directional HiPOD looses in terms of accuracy when problem data are affected by noise. This is due to the interpolation driving the online phase, since it replicates, by definition, the noise trend. To overcome this limit, we replace interpolation with Machine Learning fitting models which better discriminate relevant physical features in the data from irrelevant unstructured noise. The numerical assessment, although preliminary, confirms the potentialities of the new approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

SNS: A Solution-Based Nonlinear Subspace Method for Time-Dependent Model Order Reduction

Several reduced order models have been successfully developed for nonlinear dynamical systems. To achieve a considerable speed-up, a hyper-reduction step is needed to reduce the computational complexity due to nonlinear terms. Many hyper-reduction techniques require the construction of nonlinear term basis, which introduces a computationally expensive offline phase. A novel way of constructing nonlinear term basis within the hyper-reduction process is introduced. In contrast to the traditional hyper-reduction techniques where the collection of nonlinear term snapshots is required, the SNS method avoids collecting the nonlinear term snapshots. Instead, it uses the solution snapshots that are used for building a solution basis, which enables avoiding an extra data compression of nonlinear term snapshots. As a result, the SNS method provides a more efficient offline strategy than the traditional model order reduction techniques, such as the DEIM, GNAT, and ST-GNAT methods. The SNS method is theoretically justified by the conforming subspace condition and the subspace inclusion relation. It is useful for model order reduction of large-scale nonlinear dynamical problems to reduce the offline cost. It is especially useful for ST-GNAT that has shown promising results, such as a good accuracy with a considerable online speed-up for hyperbolic problems in a recent paper by Choi and Carlberg [SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 41 (2019), pp. A26--A58], because ST-GNAT involves an expensive offline cost related to collecting nonlinear term snapshots. Error analysis for the SNS method is presented. Numerical results support that the accuracy of the solution from the SNS method is comparable to the traditional methods and a considerable speed-up (i.e., a factor of two to a hundred) is achieved in the offline phase.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Event Detection of Power Systems Based on Unequal-Interval Reduction of PMU Data and Local Outlier Factor

With the deployment of phasor measurement units (PMU) and wide area measurement system (WAMS), it is feasible to have an insight into the events occurred in power systems based on measured data. Thus, a novel data-driven algorithm based on local outlier factor (LOF) is proposed in this work to detect and locate events in power systems using reduced PMU data. First, the unequal-interval reduction method is presented to reduce the scale of PMU data in sub-stations and reconstruct it in master station of WAMS, which can relieve the burden of communication systems. Then, principle component analysis (PCA)-based similarity search method is proposed to measure the differences of operation state between any two buses. Next, LOF is presented to detect the abnormal events in power systems, and employed to determine the region of the event source. Finally, six cases from the Western electricity coordinating council (WECC) 179-bus power system, a case from the South China power system (SCPS), and a case from the Guangdong power system (GDPS) are utilized to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Overall, the results show that proposed algorithm is effective and can be applied to event detection, event location, and online monitoring, which can enhance the situation awareness ability of power system operators.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

BioXTAS RAW 2 : new developments for a free open-source program for small-angle scattering data reduction and analysis

BioXTAS RAW is a free open-source program for reduction, analysis and modelling of biological small-angle scattering data. Here, the new developments in RAW version 2 are described. These include improved data reduction using pyFAI ; updated automated Guinier fitting and D max finding algorithms; automated series ( e.g. size-exclusion chromatography coupled small-angle X-ray scattering or SEC-SAXS) buffer- and sample-region finding algorithms; linear and integral baseline correction for series; deconvolution of series data using regularized alternating least squares ( REGALS ); creation of electron-density reconstructions using electron density via solution scattering ( DENSS ); a comparison window showing residuals, ratios and statistical comparisons between profiles; and generation of PDF reports with summary plots and tables for all analysis. Furthermore, there is now a RAW API, which can be used without the graphical user interface (GUI), providing full access to all of the functionality found in the GUI. In addition to these new capabilities, RAW has undergone significant technical updates, such as adding Python 3 compatibility, and has entirely new documentation available both online and in the program.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design and Operation of a Multi-Bed Catalytic Micro-Reactor for the Study of Co-Processing of Bio-Oils with VGO

An industry wide shift from fossil-based fuel to renewable fuel sources including biomass, municipal waste, and plastics will require new process monitoring methods to minimize transitional risks including off specification product formation and catalyst deactivation. This project aims to provide a machine learning based process monitoring tool composed of online, slipstream mass spectra for use in biomass refineries and co-processing in existing refineries allowing operators to monitor product qualities and adjust process conditions accordingly. In order to maximize the robustness of the tool, large volumes of data must be collected to fine tune model parameters which consists of both micro and pilot scale mass spectral data. Micro-scale data is collected with a multi-tube micro-reactor housing up to six catalysts in horizontal beds, coupled with a molecular beam mass spectrometer. A pyrolizer equipped with an auto-sampler streamlines the micro-scale data collection process. This type of pyrolizer/micro-reactor configuration does not exist on the market, and therefore had to be created for the purposes of this project. The design and commissioning of this reactor will be presented in detail. This reactor set-up is highly flexible and increases throughput of analysis. For catalyst testing, each bed can be individually selected simply by turning valves. For catalyst reduction and regeneration, simultaneous flow through all six beds is used. The reproducibility of the system was first assessed with whole biomass pyrolysis along with pyrolysis of calibration standards. Initial work on this system evaluated two FCC catalysts, equilibrium catalyst (E-cat), and a proprietary catalyst from Johnson Matthey specifically design for co-processing of bio-oil with vacuum gas oil (VGO). This work used model compounds and VGO which illuminated differences in products produced by the catalysts.

biomass↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward real-time optimization through model reduction and model discrepancy sensitivities

Optimization problems arise in a range of scenarios, from optimal control to model parameter estimation. In many applications, such as the development of digital twins, it is essential to solve these optimization problems within wall-clock-time limitations. However, this is often unattainable for complex systems, such as those modeled by nonlinear partial differential equations. One strategy for mitigating this issue is to construct a reduced-order model (ROM) that enables more rapid optimization. In particular, the use of nonintrusive ROMs—those that do not require access to the full-order model at evaluation time—is popular because they facilitate the computation of optimization solutions within the wall-clock time requirements. However, the optimization solution will be unreliable if the iterates move outside the ROM training data. This article proposes the use of hyper-differential sensitivity analysis with respect to model discrepancy (HDSA-MD) as a computationally efficient tool to augment ROM-constrained optimization and improve its reliability. The proposed approach consists of two phases: (i) an offline phase where several full-order model evaluations are computed to train the ROM, and (ii) an online phase where a ROM-constrained optimization problem is solved, a limited number of full-order model evaluations are computed, and HDSA-MD is used to enhance the optimization solution. Numerical results are demonstrated for two examples, atmospheric contaminant control and wildfire ignition location estimation, in which a ROM is trained offline using inaccurate atmospheric data. In conclusion, the HDSA-MD update yields a significant improvement in the ROM-constrained optimization solution using only one full-order model evaluation online with corrected atmospheric data.

PDE-constrained optimization↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Space–Time Reduced Order Model for Linear Dynamical Systems in Python Using Less than 120 Lines of Code

A classical reduced order model (ROM) for dynamical problems typically involves only the spatial reduction of a given problem. Recently, a novel space–time ROM for linear dynamical problems has been developed [Choi et al., Space–tume reduced order model for large-scale linear dynamical systems with application to Boltzmann transport problems, Journal of Computational Physics, 2020], which further reduces the problem size by introducing a temporal reduction in addition to a spatial reduction without much loss in accuracy. The authors show an order of a thousand speed-up with a relative error of less than 10−5 for a large-scale Boltzmann transport problem. In this work, we present for the first time the derivation of the space–time least-squares Petrov–Galerkin (LSPG) projection for linear dynamical systems and its corresponding block structures. Utilizing these block structures, we demonstrate the ease of construction of the space–time ROM method with two model problems: 2D diffusion and 2D convection diffusion, with and without a linear source term. For each problem, we demonstrate the entire process of generating the full order model (FOM) data, constructing the space–time ROM, and predicting the reduced-order solutions, all in less than 120 lines of Python code. We compare our LSPG method with the traditional Galerkin method and show that the space–time ROMs can achieve O(10−3) to O(10−4) relative errors for these problems. Depending on parameter–separability, online speed-ups may or may not be achieved. For the FOMs with parameter–separability, the space–time ROMs can achieve O(10) online speed-ups. Finally, we present an error analysis for the space–time LSPG projection and derive an error bound, which shows an improvement compared to traditional spatial Galerkin ROM methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lossy Compression: An Online Multi-Stage Technology for High-Fidelity Synchro- Waveform Measurements

Effective real-time monitoring and analysis of distributed grids necessitate the use of synchro-waveform measurements, which capture almost all high-frequency disturbances and transient phenomena. However, due to limitations in high-speed measurements and network bandwidth, it is challenging to transfer all high-fidelity synchro-waveforms losslessly and successfully. To cope with these challenges, a hybrid-based online multi-stage compression algorithm is proposed to significantly improve the compression efficiency for synchro-waveform measurements. Initially, the multiple discrete Wavelet transformation is deployed to deconstruct the waveform components. The delta encoding is further developed to decrease the magnitude. In conjunction with the Lempel-Ziv-Markov chain, the hybrid compression algorithm is implemented to achieve real-time compression for the synchro-waveform measurements. Moreover, an innovative error index that synergizes the time and frequency domain error and correlation is formulated to evaluate the waveform distortion. By integrating compression ratio, suitable parameters can be optimally selected. Finally, the simulation, laboratory experiments, as well as field tests across a spectrum of sampling frequencies and time intervals are conducted to substantiate the efficacy of the proposed method. Here, the outcomes demonstrated that a compression ratio of approximately 15.5 and 17.83 can be reached for 0.5 s and 1 s data under both offline and online scenarios, which equates to a substantial 93.5% to 94.39% reduction in data storage requirements.

High-fidelity synchro-waveform measurements↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine-Learning Enabled Evaluation of Probability of Piping Degradation In Secondary Systems of Nuclear Power Plants

The transition to condition-based, risk-informed automated maintenance will contribute to a significant reduction of operations and maintenance costs that account for the majority of nuclear power generation costs. Furthermore, of the operations and maintenance costs in U.S. plants, approximately 80% are labor costs. To address the issue of rising operating costs and economic viability, technologies used to perform online monitoring of piping and other secondary system structural components in commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) are under evaluation. These online monitoring systems have the potential to identify when a more detailed inspection is needed using real time measurements, rather than at a pre-determined inspection interval thus reducing the maintenance cost. This paper describes distributed high-temperature stable fiber sensors fabricated in optical fibers through a roll-to-roll laser direct writing process using femtosecond lasers. Using phase-sensitive optical time domain reflectometry, distributed acoustic and vibration sensors can be developed and deployed to critical components and systems in NPPs to perform active measurements with spatial resolution down to 0.5-meter throughout the piping systems. Complex acoustic and vibration signatures harnessed by distributed sensors are registered and analyzed by artificial intelligence algorithms for degradation detection and flaw identification. Piping elbows with machined-in flaws were instrumented with fiber sensors. High-spatial-resolution data were used to develop and validate machine learning algorithms, including both linear and nonlinear regression, and classification. Additionally, classification and sensor analysis were also performed for data analysis. The paper concludes with recommendations and future work on applications of machine learning enabled high-resolution fiber sensors for piping degradation monitoring in current or future NPPs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Non-intrusive reduced-order modeling for dynamical systems with spatially localized features

This work presents a non-intrusive reduced-order modeling framework for dynamical systems with spatially localized features characterized by slow singular value decay. The proposed approach builds upon two existing methodologies for reduced and full-order non-intrusive modeling, namely Operator Inference (OpInf) and sparse Full-Order Model (sFOM) inference. We decompose the domain into two complementary subdomains that exhibit fast and slow singular value decay. The dynamics of the subdomain exhibiting slow singular value decay are learned with sFOM while the dynamics with intrinsically low dimensionality on the complementary subdomain are learned with OpInf. The resulting, coupled OpInf-sFOM formulation leverages the computational efficiency of OpInf and the high resolution of sFOM, and thus enables fast non-intrusive predictions for conditions beyond those sampled in the training data set. A novel regularization technique with a closed-form solution based on the Gershgorin disk theorem is introduced to promote stable sFOM and OpInf models. We also provide a data-driven indicator for subdomain selection and ensure solution smoothness over the interface via a post-processing interpolation step. We evaluate the efficiency of the approach in terms of offline and online speedup through a quantitative, parametric computational cost analysis. We demonstrate the coupled OpInf-sFOM formulation for two test cases: a one-dimensional Burgers’ model for which accurate predictions beyond the span of the training snapshots are presented, and a two-dimensional parametric model for the Pine Island Glacier ice thickness dynamics, for which the OpInf-sFOM model achieves an average prediction error on the order of 1% with an online speedup factor of approximately 8$\times$ compared to the numerical simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Graph Neural Networks for low-energy event classification & reconstruction in IceCube

IceCube, a cubic-kilometer array of optical sensors built to detect atmospheric and astrophysical neutrinos between 1 GeV and 1 PeV, is deployed 1.45 km to 2.45 km below the surface of the ice sheet at the South Pole. The classification and reconstruction of events from the in-ice detectors play a central role in the analysis of data from IceCube. Reconstructing and classifying events is a challenge due to the irregular detector geometry, inhomogeneous scattering and absorption of light in the ice and, below 100 GeV, the relatively low number of signal photons produced per event. To address this challenge, it is possible to represent IceCube events as point cloud graphs and use a Graph Neural Network (GNN) as the classification and reconstruction method. The GNN is capable of distinguishing neutrino events from cosmic-ray backgrounds, classifying different neutrino event types, and reconstructing the deposited energy, direction and interaction vertex. Based on simulation, we provide a comparison in the 1 GeV–100 GeV energy range to the current state-of-the-art maximum likelihood techniques used in current IceCube analyses, including the effects of known systematic uncertainties. For neutrino event classification, the GNN increases the signal efficiency by 18% at a fixed background rate, compared to current IceCube methods. Alternatively, the GNN offers a reduction of the background (i.e. false positive) rate by over a factor 8 (to below half a percent) at a fixed signal efficiency. For the reconstruction of energy, direction, and interaction vertex, the resolution improves by an average of 13%–20% compared to current maximum likelihood techniques in the energy range of 1 GeV–30 GeV. The GNN, when run on a GPU, is capable of processing IceCube events at a rate nearly double of the median IceCube trigger rate of 2.7 kHz, which opens the possibility of using low energy neutrinos in online searches for transient events.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition” presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC (PV plants of 5 MWAC or less, including residential rooftop systems, are covered separately in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Tracking the Sun). Key findings from this year’s report include: -18.5 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2023, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 80.2 GWAC across 47 states. Installed costs continued to fall in 2023. Relative to 2022, capacity-weighted averages decreased by 8% to -$\$1.43$/WAC (or $\$1.08$/WDC). Costs, based on a 7.1 GWAC sample of 76 plants completed in 2023, have fallen by 75% (averaging 10% annually) since 2010. Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 6% to 36% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. -Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of new 2023 projects increased slightly to $\$46$/MWh prior to the application of tax credits but continued to fall to $\$31$/MWh when accounting for federal incentives. PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but newly signed longer-term PPA prices have increased since 2021, to an average of $\$35$/MWh (levelized, in 2023 dollars). -Solar’s average energy and capacity value (i.e., ability to offset costs of other power generation sources) across the U.S. was $\$45$/MWh in 2023. Solar’s average market value was lowest in CAISO ($\$27$/MWh), the market with the greatest solar generation share, and highest in ERCOT ($\$67$/MWh). -Newer solar projects had greater market value in 2023 than their generation costs, yielding $\$1.1$ billion in benefits. Projects built in 2022 delivered on average $\$15$/MWh more market value than their costs in 2023. -Solar’s combined value from wholesale electricity markets, public health and climate damage reduction were greater than generation costs and incentives, yielding $\$13.7$ billion in net benefits in 2023. We estimate U.S. health benefits of $\$24$/MWh and reduced global climate damages of $\$101$/MWh. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Deployment of 52 new PV+battery hybrid plants set a record with 5.3 GW installed in 2023. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from more than 100 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -Looking ahead, a massive pipeline of at least 1,085 GW of solar capacity dominates the nation’s interconnection queues at the end of 2023. Nearly 571 GW, or 53%, of that total was paired with a battery – in CAISO it was a staggering 98%. Historically only 10% of the requested solar capacity is built. -For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Landsat-Based Assessment of Mobile Bay Land Use and Land Cover Change from 1974 to 2008

The Mobile Bay region has experienced noteworthy land use and land cover (LULC) change in the latter half of the 20th century. Accompanying this change has been urban expansion and a reduction of rural land uses. Much of this LULC change has reportedly occurred since the landfall of Hurricane Frederic in 1979. The Mobile Bay region provides great economic and ecologic benefits to the Nation, including important coastal habitat for a broad diversity of fisheries and wildlife. Regional urbanization threatens the estuary s water quality and aquatic-habitat dependent biota, including commercial fisheries and avian wildlife. Coastal conservation and urban land use planners require additional information on historical LULC change to support coastal habitat restoration and resiliency management efforts. This presentation discusses results of a Gulf of Mexico Application Pilot project that was conducted in 2008 to quantify and assess LULC change from 1974 to 2008. This project was led by NASA Stennis Space Center and involved multiple Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) partners, including the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program (NEP), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration s (NOAA s) National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC), and the NOAA Coastal Services Center. Nine Landsat images were employed to compute LULC products because of their availability and suitability for the application. The project also used Landsat-based national LULC products, including coastal LULC products from NOAA s Coastal Change & Analysis Program (C-CAP), available at 5-year intervals since 1995. Our study was initiated in part because C-CAP LULC products were not available to assess the region s urbanization prior to 1995 and subsequent to post Hurricane Katrina in 2006. This project assessed LULC change across the 34-year time frame and at decadal and middecadal scales. The study area included the majority of Mobile and Baldwin counties that encompass Mobile Bay. In doing so, each date of Landsat data was classified using an end-user defined modified Anderson level 1 classification scheme. LULC classifications were refined using a decision rule approach in conjunction with available C-CAP products. Individual dates of LULC classifications were validated by image interpretation of stratified random locations on raw Landsat color composite imagery in combination with higher resolution remote sensing and in-situ reference data. The results indicate that during the 34-year study period, urban areas increased from 96,688 to 150,227 acres, representing a 55.37% increase, or 1.63% per annum. Most of the identified urban expansion results from conversion of rural forest and agriculture to urban cover types. Final LULC mapping and metadata products were produced for the entire study area as well as watersheds of concern within the study area. Final project products, including LULC trend information, were incorporated into the Mobile Bay NEP State of the Bay report. Products and metadata were transferred to NOAA NCDDC to allow free online accessibility and use by GOMA partners and by the public.

Spruce, Joseph↗
DOE OSTI2023

Incentivizing Cold-Climate Efficiency in Juneau (Final Report)

This is the final technical report for the DOE EERE BTO project Incentivizing Cold-Climate Efficiency in Juneau. The project implemented a community energy campaign to deploy heat pumps and efficiency for residents of Juneau, in Southeast Alaska. The project helped Juneau make progress towards its renewable energy goal of reaching 80% renewable energy for space heating by 2045. The Incentivizing Cold-Climate Efficiency in Juneau (ICE-Juneau) project began in 2020 and concluded three years later in 2023. During that time, a group of implementation partners and a research advisory team instituted a beneficial electrification campaign to promote energy savings and carbon reduction in residences of Juneau, Alaska. The campaign, Thermalize Juneau, focused on the installation of single head ductless mini-split heat pumps along with other efficiency upgrades. Thermalize Juneau was the first campaign of its kind in Alaska. After several months of planning, registration opened to the public in early 2021, and over the course of six months 164 participants enrolled. Campaign staff provided education to homeowners on heat pumps and efficiency, and each participant received a one-on-one heat pump assessment using a custom Microsoft Excel-based calculator that estimated energy savings for their residence based on building characteristics and past utility bills. Participants could also obtain a free energy audit from one of the two local energy auditors to further inform their decision. A heat pump installer, electrician, and builder were selected via a competitive RFP process. Participants who felt ready to install a heat pump or other efficiency upgrades received a site visit and custom quote from each of these contractors free of charge, and if they still felt energy upgrades were right for them, could move forward with an individual contract. Participants received a $400 heat pump installation rebate, offered by the installer if 40 heat pump installations occurred through the campaign. Overall, the campaign facilitated 75 heat pump installations (including participants that went with another contractor or heat pump model) and 30 efficiency upgrades (including participants that went with another builder or did DIY upgrades). The campaign created 3 new jobs as the heat pump installer hired an administrative assistant and two apprentices over the course of the campaign. It also helped Juneau work toward achieving its renewable energy goal of 80% renewable energy for space heating by 2045 by upgrading houses from fuel oil to heat pumps powered by the hydropower electric grid. Researchers conducted four surveys to inform Thermalize Juneau and future energy campaigns. The first surveyed existing and prospective heat pump owners in Juneau to identify barriers the campaign could address and inform recruitment efforts. Entry and exit surveys provided information on participant demographics, goals, outcomes, and suggestions for improving future campaigns. And a final survey of community members who had not participated in Thermalize Juneau gave insight on ways future campaigns could include a greater diversity of participants so they could realize similar benefits. Researchers also used pre-campaign energy modeling to predict energy savings, which was then compared to the savings estimated through aggregation of heat pump assessments and energy audits, and later to actual energy savings of 10 participants who installed a heat pump and were able to provide complete energy use data sets. In addition to energy savings, and to assist the electric utility in future planning efforts, researchers analyzed the overall change in electric use across participants with energy data and heat pump installations. They also completed a life cycle cost analysis, showing positive net present values for those displacing a fuel oil appliance, and a more mixed case for those switching from electric baseboard. This project proved the feasibility of energy campaigns, with a goal of beneficial electrification, in cold, remote locations. The Thermalize Juneau team compiled a Guidebook to Thermalize Campaigns, available online. In addition to documenting what occurred in Alaska’s first thermalize campaign, it provides tips and resources for other communities wishing to implement a similar program.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗