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27 records · Page 2

Rock Physics-Based Data Assimilation of Integrated Continuous Active-Source Seismic and Pressure Monitoring Data during Geological Carbon Storage

Summary There has been substantial controversy concerning the role of geological carbon storage (GCS) in sequestering anthropogenic carbon emissions to mitigate climate change and global warming. Arguments center on the inability to monitor a geological storage site precisely and continuously, especially highlighting the associated costs and spatiotemporal trade-offs when using conventional subsurface monitoring techniques (well logs, core samples, chemical tracers, and 4D seismics). Active surveillance of GCS sites is essential for managing and mitigating potential leaks but is also required by regulation. With the goal of enhancing the monitoring capability at GCS sites, we present a rock physics-based joint data assimilation model to study a popular GCS site at Cranfield, Mississippi, USA. Synthetic continuous active-source seismic monitoring (CASSM) data (in the form of Vp and Qp measurements) and wellbore pressure monitoring data are assimilated with an ensemble of reservoir realizations to monitor gas saturation and reservoir pressure changes over a period of 100 years. Synthetic seismic attributes are generated using rock physics models (RPMs) and wellbore pressure monitoring data are extracted from the ground truth. Two assimilation methods, ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS), are tested in an observation system simulation experiment (OSSE) environment to assess the prediction accuracy of the individual and composite observation systems. The joint monitoring system achieves more accurate estimates of gas saturation and pressure, across the time span from start of injection to end of forecast, as compared to a single type of monitoring tool and irrespective of data assimilation algorithm choice. These results indicate that jointly assimilated data from two types of sensors (in this case, crosswell seismic and downhole pressure) may lead to a more risk-reducing monitoring design. One would expect that more data, vis-à-vis inclusion of a new sensor type, will improve the accuracy of any GCS monitoring system. However, from a practical standpoint, one important question is whether such a gain in accuracy is worth the additional cost associated with the new sensor. This paper focuses on quantifying the gain in accuracy, such that a practitioner can answer this question.

Engineering↗

Description of the LASSO Data Bundles Product

The U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility began a pilot project in May 2015 to design a routine, high-resolution modeling capability to complement ARM’s extensive suite of measurements. This modeling capability has evolved into the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) datastream. The datastream, broadly termed data bundles, contains high-resolution model output, input files, observations for evaluation, and skill scores for the simulations. The initial focus of LASSO is on shallow convection at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory. The availability of LES simulations with concurrent observations serves many purposes. LES helps bridge the scale gap between DOE ARM observations and models, and the use of routine LES adds value to observations. It provides a self-consistent representation of the atmosphere and a dynamical context for the observations. Further, it elucidates unobservable processes and properties. LASSO generates a simulation library for researchers that enables statistical approaches beyond a single-case mentality. It also provides tools necessary for modelers to reproduce the LES and conduct their own sensitivity experiments. The LASSO library of data bundles is designed to facilitate a wide range of research. For an observationalist, LASSO can help inform instrument remote-sensing retrievals, conduct observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs), and test implications of radar scan strategies or flight paths. For a theoretician, LASSO can help calculate estimates of fluxes and co-variability of values, and test relationships without having to run the model personally. For a modeler, LASSO can help one know ahead of time which days have good forcing, have co-registered observations at high-resolution scales, and have simulation inputs and corresponding outputs to test parameterizations. Further details on the overall LASSO project are available at https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/modeling/lasso.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scaling Energy Efficient Retrofits for Small Commercial Apartment Buildings

With support from the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Building Technologies Office (BTO), the International Center for Appropriate and Sustainable Technology (ICAST) recently completed a three-year cooperative agreement to scale energy efficiency retrofits (EER) on small multifamily (MF) buildings. ICAST EER strategies ranged from low-hanging “direct install” of measures such as LED lighting, low-flow showerheads and aerators, and smart thermostats to major strategies such as HVAC replacement with high-efficiency boilers or heat pumps. As feasible, some projects also included the addition of renewable energy sources such as photo voltaic (PV) solar. When ICAST began the BTO project, it operated in two states and oversaw EER at approximately 80 MF buildings per year. With assistance from BTO, ICAST has grown significantly and now has staff in six states with MF EER projects in another seven, and performed EER on 956 MF buildings. ). ICAST was able to successfully execute this project by 1) Improving viability and efficiency of its processes, 2) Launching two new services and 3) Creating an affiliate program. For the most part, ICAST focused on a specific type of MF property: naturally occurring affordable housing (NOAH), because it is a significantly underserved market within the hard-to-serve MF market. NOAHs are typically smaller properties (5 to 64 units), owned by small organizations or individual investors looking for positive cash flow. ICAST believes the NOAH market can be successfully served with a one-stop-shop approach that makes it easy, hassle-free, and cost-effective for owners to acquire green upgrades for their property(ies). With the assistance of BTO funding, ICAST successfully used the cited EER methods and strategies to scale-up its OSS approach to service a greater number of MF housing and expand into new geographies. Additionally, support from BTO helped ICAST create self-sustaining programs which will not need to rely on on-going funding.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Leveraging ARM Data to Improve Models for Predictive Understanding of Energy and Security Challenges

Extreme weather and natural hazards can disrupt the energy sector, affecting demand, generation, transmission, distribution, consumption and operational planning at regional and national scales. These disruptions stem from a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, including winter storms, freezing rain, wet snow loading, severe convection, flooding and landslides, wildfires, prolonged heat, and drought. Many of these same phenomena can also affect national security through impacts to transportation and infrastructure. To support the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) focus on energy resilience and national security, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility is uniquely positioned to contribute measurement data, analyses, and modeling frameworks that can significantly improve predictive understanding of these hazards to mitigate their effects. To explore this opportunity, ARM convened a two-part virtual workshop in November 2025. The workshop engaged interdisciplinary experts in atmospheric science, energy systems, modeling, and operations. The goal of the meeting was to engage with these interdisciplinary experts to address three questions: • What are examples of atmospheric processes that represent significant risks to energy security or national security and where are those risks greatest? • What measurements or measurement strategies would improve ARM’s capacity to address these issues? • How can ARM and users of the ARM facility better work with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and multi-sector modeling communities to apply ARM data to improving E3SM simulations of these phenomena? Participants were asked to submit white papers ahead of the meeting to initiate thinking on these themes and to help organize discussions. Workshop sessions were then organized around themes identified in the white papers. First from the white papers and then through subsequent discussions, workshop participants identified many examples that address the three questions listed above. Participants called out energy system vulnerabilities to weather phenomena such as the impact of freezing rain, strong winds, and excessive heat on power grids. They also noted the effects that weather phenomena could have on energy demand or supply (e.g., through effects of extreme temperatures). They called out security vulnerabilities such as impacts to crops from aerosol-borne pathogens and risks to industry due to melting permafrost in the Arctic. In all, over a dozen meteorological phenomena were linked to energy or security vulnerabilities. For many of the identified phenomena, participants pointed out where ARM was well poised to address issues (e.g., through measurements of cloud microphysics to inform studies of freezing rain) but also noted needs for additional measurements or modified measurement strategies. For example, adaptive scanning of severe weather would be valuable for probing winter storms or severe convection. Participants pointed out the value in integrating external observations with ARM measurements and with applying artificial intelligence (AI) to ARM observation analysis and they advocated for using model simulations to help optimize measurement strategies through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). It was clear from the workshop that there are many ways that ARM observations can be used to mitigate energy and security concerns, but meeting participants were also asked to identify what they considered to be the greatest opportunities by ranking issues pertaining to the three workshop questions. This was accomplished through a survey administered to participants between the two virtual sessions. The highest-priority phenomena identified were winter storms, severe convection, and arctic processes. Discussion in the second session, therefore, focused primarily on these three areas, which were most fully developed in exploring ARM opportunities. Nevertheless, it was also clear that ARM has opportunities to contribute to all the identified topics. This report describes the workshop, including input from discussion and white papers (Sections 2 and 3) and a list of priority recommendations (section 4). Many other ideas for ARM contributions are discussed in individual white papers (Appendix D).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

LDM-151: Data Management Science Pipelines Design

The LSST Science Requirements Document (the LSST SRD) specifies a set of data product guidelines, designed to support science goals envisioned to be enabled by the LSST observing program. Following these guidelines, the details of these data products have been described in the LSST Data Products Definition Document (DPDD), and captured in a formal flow-down from the SRD via the LSST System Requirements (LSR), Observatory System Specifications (OSS), to the Data Management System Requirements (DMSR). The LSST Data Management subsystem's responsibilities include the design, implementation, deployment and execution of software pipelines necessary to generate these data products. This document describes the design of the scientific aspects of those pipelines.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

LSE-61: Rubin Observatory Data Management System (DMS) Requirements

This document contains the top-level requirements for the Data Management subsystem of the LSST, when combined with the Data Management-related requirements in the LSST System Requirements (LSR, LSE-29) and Observatory System Specifications (OSS, LSE-30).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Architecture and Performance of Perlmutter’s 35 PB ClusterStor E1000 All-Flash File System

NERSC's newest system, Perlmutter, features a 35 PB all-flash Lustre file system built on HPE Cray ClusterStor E1000. We present its architecture, early performance figures, and performance considerations unique to this architecture. We demonstrate the performance of E1000 OSSes through low-level Lustre tests that achieve over 90% of the theoretical bandwidth of the SSDs at the OST and LNet levels. We also show end-to-end performance for both traditional dimensions of I/O performance (peak bulk-synchronous bandwidth) and non-optimal workloads endemic to production computing (small, incoherent I/Os at random offsets) and compare them to NERSC's previous system, Cori, to illustrate that Perlmutter achieves the performance of a burst buffer and the resilience of a scratch file system. Finally, we discuss performance considerations unique to all-flash Lustre and present ways in which users and HPC facilities can adjust their I/O patterns and operations to make optimal use of such architectures.

Lockwood, Glenn K↗

U.S. Agrivoltaics Irradiance Database

This is a foundational data set for research and deployment of agrivoltaics, which is the co-location of agriculture and solar power plants on the same land. This irradiance and shading dataset can be utilized to determine the suitability of agrivoltaics configurations for a given region and crop-type. The data is hourly, 4x4 km resolution across the contiguous United States and Hawaii. It is calculated from the National Solar Radiation Database sites, using the System Advisor Model (SAM) to simulate the shading patterns for 10 common agrivoltaics configurations. Sunlight availability data is reported for 10 locations on the ground between adjacent rows of solar panels, as well as averaged across areas of interest such as the average irradiance in the edge-to-edge open area or across 3-6 planting beds. Other available metrics include the input meteorological data from the NSRDB (e.g. global horizontal irradiance, wind speed, etc.) and estimates for comparing energy and agricultural characteristic across the 10 configurations, including power output per acre or per kW installed capacity and farmable land area per acre.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗