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At least 37 records · Page 2

Reaction of N 2 O with the prototype singlet biradical CH 2 : A theoretical study

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is currently the most important ozone-depleting substance emission and is a potent greenhouse gas. It is also a remarkably unreactive chemical species. Any loss processes for N 2 O in the troposphere and combustion can be important. Therefore, as part of an effort to investigate how N 2 O reacts with prototypical chemical species, its reaction with singlet methylene (CH 2 ) is studied here using high accuracy thermochemistry mHEAT-345(Q) calculations, together with two-dimensional (E,J) master equation simulations. Two distinct mechanisms (an addition/elimination and an O-abstraction) have been characterized. The reaction is found to be very fast with a negative temperature dependence.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Restoring wetlands on intensive agricultural lands modifies nitrogen cycling microbial communities and reduces N 2 O production potential

The concentration of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), an ozone-depleting greenhouse gas, is rapidly increasing in the atmosphere. Most atmospheric N 2 O originates in terrestrial ecosystems, of which the majority can be attributed to microbial cycling of nitrogen in agricultural soils. Here, in this study, we demonstrate how the abundance of nitrogen cycling genes vary across intensively managed agricultural fields and adjacent restored wetlands in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta in California, USA. We found that the abundances of nirS and nirK genes were highest at the intensively managed organic-rich cornfield and significantly outnumber any other gene abundances, suggesting very high N 2 O production potential. The quantity of nitrogen transforming genes, particularly those responsible for denitrification, nitrification and DNRA, were highest in the agricultural sites, whereas nitrogen fixation and ANAMMOX was strongly associated with the wetland sites. Although the abundance of nosZ genes was also high at the agricultural sites, the ratio of nosZ genes to nir genes was significantly higher in wetland sites indicating that these sites could act as a sink of N 2 O. These findings suggest that wetland restoration could be a promising natural climate solution not only for carbon sequestration but also for reduced N 2 O emissions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment of advanced composite panels incorporating CO 2 -derived multi-walled carbon nanotubes and hemp fiber for sustainable building applications

Advanced composite panels represent a promising pathway to reducing carbon emissions in the construction industry, yet comprehensive environmental impact assessments remain limited. Here, in this study, we conduct a life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate the environmental impacts of innovative composite panels produced from multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs), hemp fiber (HF), recycled carbon fiber (rCF), and recycled polypropylene (PP), exploring their potential as baseline structural equivalents to conventional gypsum board. MWCNTs and HF play a critical role in sequestering carbon during raw material production, while the recycling processes for CF and PP generally require less energy compared to virgin material production. The LCA evaluates environmental performance using the TRACI 2.1 method, covering global warming potential (GWP), ozone depletion, smog formation, acidification, eutrophication, carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects, respiratory impacts, ecotoxicity, and fossil fuel depletion. Compositional variations—resin type (virgin vs. recycled), rCF content (9–29 wt%), and HF content (10–30 wt%)—are introduced for sensitivity and hotspot analyses. Results demonstrate that, when compared on the basis of preliminary structural equivalence, increasing recycled PP, rCF, and HF content can significantly reduce global warming potential compared to gypsum board. Beyond carbon reduction, the composite panels show trade-offs across other environmental categories. With the growing demand for composite materials in interior panels, ceiling systems, and exterior claddings, these findings highlight the environmental benefits and potential trade-offs of the proposed composites, establishing a foundational framework to support their continued development toward full building-system integration.

Advanced composite manufacturing↗

Photochemical reactions on aerosols at West Antarctica: A molecular case-study of nitrate formation among sea salt aerosols

Environmental implications of climate change are complex and exhibit regional variations both within and between the polar regions. The increase of solar UV radiation flux over Antarctica due to stratospheric ozone depletion creates the optimal conditions for photochemical reactions on the snow. Modeling, laboratory, and indirect field studies suggest that snowpack process release gases to the atmosphere that can react on sea salt particles in remote regions such as Antarctica, modifying aerosol composition and physical properties of aerosols. Here, we present evidence of photochemical processing in West Antarctica aerosols using microscopic and chemical speciation of individual atmospheric particles. Individual aerosol particles collected at the Brazilian module Criosfera 1 were analyzed by scanning transmission X-ray microscopy with near edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (STXM/NEXAFS) combined with computer controlled scanning electron microscopy (CCSEM) with energy-dispersive X-ray (EDX) microanalysis. The displacement of chlorine relative to sodium was observed over most of the sea salt particles. Particles with a chemical composition consistent with NaCl-NO3 contributed up to 30% of atmospheric particles investigated. Overall, this study provides evidence that the snowpack and particulate nitrate photolysis should be considered in dynamic partition equilibrium in the troposphere. Finally, these findings may assist in reducing modeling uncertainties and present new insights into the aerosol chemical composition in the polar environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Techno-Economic and life cycle assessment of standalone Single-Stream material recovery facilities in the United states

Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) are crucial players in achieving a circular economy. MRFs receive complex waste streams and separate valuable recyclables from these mixtures. This study conducts techno-economic analysis (TEA) to estimate the net present value (NPV) and life cycle assessment (LCA) to estimate different environmental impacts of a commercial scale standalone, single-stream MRF to assess the economic feasibility and environmental impacts of recovering valuable recyclables from an MRF processing 120,000 tonnes per year (t/y). The TEA employs a discounted cash flow rate of return (DCFROR) analysis over a 20-year facility lifetime, along with a sensitivity analysis on the impact of different operating and economic parameters. Results show that the total fixed cost of building the MRF facility is $\$ $23 MM, and the operating cost is $\$ $45.48/tonne. Further the NPV of the MRF can vary from $\$ $3.57 MM to $\$ $60 MM, while 100-year global warming potential can range from 5.98 to 8.53 kg carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq) per tonne of MSW. We have also found that MSW composition (arising from regional effects) significantly impacts costs, 100-year global warming potential, and other impact categories such as acidification potential, eutrophication potential, ecotoxicity, ozone depletion, photochemical oxidation, carcinogenic effects, and non-carcinogenic effects. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicate that waste composition and market prices significantly impact the profitability of the MRF, and the waste composition mostly impacts global warming potential. Our analysis also indicates that facility capacity, fixed capital cost, and waste tipping fees are vital parameters that affect the economic viability of MRF operations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

High-Latitude Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Can Be More Effective if Injection Is Limited to Spring

Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering focused on the Arctic could substantially reduce local and worldwide impacts of anthropogenic global warming. Because the Arctic receives little sunlight during the winter, stratospheric aerosols present in the winter at high latitudes have little impact on the climate, whereas stratospheric aerosols present during the summer achieve larger changes in radiative forcing. Injecting SO 2 in the spring leads to peak aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the summer. We demonstrate that spring injection produces approximately twice as much summer AOD as year-round injection and restores approximately twice as much September sea ice, resulting in less increase in stratospheric sulfur burden, stratospheric heating, and stratospheric ozone depletion per unit of sea ice restored. Furthermore, we also find that differences in AOD between different seasonal injection strategies are small compared to the difference between annual and spring injection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Variability of Water Vapor in the Tropical Middle Atmosphere Observed From Satellites and Interpreted Using SD-WACCM Simulations

Water vapor in the middle atmosphere plays an essential role in global warming, ozone depletion, and the formation of polar stratospheric and mesospheric clouds. We show that tropical middle atmospheric water vapor simulated with the specified-dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) is consistent with changes observed in a merged satellite data set, which encompasses the period 1993–2020. Consistent with previous work, we find no significant trend in the stratosphere in either the observations or the simulation; in the mesosphere, we find a long-term trend of 0.1 ppmv per decade, but only in the observations. We also analyze an SD-WACCM simulation for the longer period 1980–2019 to quantify the contribution of various factors to the decadal variation of middle atmospheric water vapor. Over 1980–1995, the simulated water vapor in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, averaged zonally and over ±30° latitude, increases by 0.30 ppmv per decade due to increasing methane emissions. After 1995, a significant abrupt decrease of water vapor of 0.37 ppmv per decade and then a gradual increase of 0.33 ppmv per decade result from changes in stratospheric cold point temperature. The cold-point temperature is strongly influenced by the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. The acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation before about 2003 leads to a cooler tropical tropopause and a decrease of water vapor, and the deceleration thereafter leads to corresponding warming of the tropopause and an increase in water vapor.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Modeled Seasonal Cycles of Surface N 2 O Fluxes and Atmospheric N 2 O

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone-depleting substance with large and growing anthropogenic emissions. Previous studies identified the influx of N 2 O-depleted air from the stratosphere to partly cause the seasonality in tropospheric N 2 O (aN 2 O), but other contributions remain unclear. Here, we combine surface fluxes from eight land and four ocean models from phase 2 of the Nitrogen/N 2 O Model Intercomparison Project with tropospheric transport modeling to simulate aN 2 O at eight remote air sampling sites for modern and pre-industrial periods. Models show general agreement on the seasonal phasing of zonal-average N 2 O fluxes for most sites, but seasonal peak-to-peak amplitudes differ several-fold across models. The modeled seasonal amplitude of surface aN 2 O ranges from 0.25 to 0.80 ppb (interquartile ranges 21%–52% of median) for land, 0.14–0.25 ppb (17%–68%) for ocean, and 0.28–0.77 ppb (23%–52%) for combined flux contributions. The observed seasonal amplitude ranges from 0.34 to 1.08 ppb for these sites. The stratospheric contributions to aN 2 O, inferred by the difference between the surface-troposphere model and observations, show 16%–126% larger amplitudes and minima delayed by ~1 month compared to Northern Hemisphere site observations. Land fluxes and their seasonal amplitude have increased since the pre-industrial era and are projected to grow further under anthropogenic activities. Our results demonstrate the increasing importance of land fluxes for aN 2 O seasonality. Considering the large model spread, in situ aN 2 O observations and atmospheric transport-chemistry models will provide opportunities for constraining terrestrial and oceanic biosphere models, critical for projecting carbon-nitrogen cycles under ongoing global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Human-induced changes in the global meridional overturning circulation are emerging from the Southern Ocean

In a warming climate, the Global Meridional Overturning Circulation (GMOC) is expected to change significantly with a risk of disrupting the global redistribution of ocean properties that sustains marine ecosystems, carbon cycle, and others. Here we make a novel attempt to utilize a diagnostic ocean & sea-ice model to estimate the GMOC and its interdecadal changes since the mid-1950s that are consistent with historical hydrographic observations. We find that significant changes in the GMOC have already occurred, most notably in the upper and lower overturning cells in the Southern Ocean. The former has expanded poleward and into denser water and strengthened by 3–4 Sv since the mid-1970s, while the latter has contracted and weakened by a similar rate during the same period. These changes are driven by the increasing Southern Hemisphere (SH) Ferrel cell and associated increases in the westerlies and the surface buoyancy loss over its sinking branch, and the increasing Antarctic meltwater discharge, in response to ozone depletion in the SH stratosphere and increasing atmospheric CO 2 . A large-scale readjustment of the GMOC seems to be underway in the South Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Oceans since the mid-2000s in response to the Southern Ocean changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating the ultraviolet photodissociation of bromocyclopropane with ultrafast electron diffraction

We have studied the photodissociation of gas-phase bromocyclopropane by 200 nm wavelength ultraviolet radiation using ultrafast electron diffraction. Bromocyclopropane is a prototypical molecule in the study of organobromides, a class of molecules that have a significant impact on atmospheric ozone depletion through their photochemistry. Here, previous studies have revealed two possible reaction pathways for the photodissociation of bromine from bromocyclopropane; either the C–Br bond dissociates, leaving behind a cyclopropyl ring, or there is a concerted opening of the cyclopropyl ring along with the C–Br bond dissociation. In this work, both our experimental and simulation results indicate that the majority of the UV-photoexcited BCP molecules (88% ± 11% in the experiment) follow the first reaction pathway, in which the cyclopropyl ring remains closed after homolytic C–Br bond cleavage. This direct bond dissociation occurs within the experimental time resolution of 270 fs. In order to differentiate between the possible reaction end-products, both of which have diffraction signals dominated by the bromine atom, a new analysis method has been employed, which is more sensitive to the structure of the end-products.

Atmospheric chemistry↗

Minimizing the impacts of the ammonia economy on the nitrogen cycle and climate

Ammonia (NH 3 ) is an attractive low-carbon fuel and hydrogen carrier. However, losses and inefficiencies across the value chain could result in reactive nitrogen emissions (NH 3 , NO x , and N 2 O), negatively impacting air quality, the environment, human health, and climate. A relatively robust ammonia economy (30 EJ/y) could perturb the global nitrogen cycle by up to 65 Mt/y with a 5% nitrogen loss rate, equivalent to 50% of the current global perturbation caused by fertilizers. Moreover, the emission rate of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a potent greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting molecule, determines whether ammonia combustion has a greenhouse footprint comparable to renewable energy sources or higher than coal (100 to 1,400 gCO 2 e/kWh). The success of the ammonia economy hence hinges on adopting optimal practices and technologies that minimize reactive nitrogen emissions. We discuss how this constraint should be included in the ongoing broad engineering research to reduce environmental concerns and prevent the lock-in of high-leakage practices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emergence and disruption of cooperativity in a denitrifying microbial community

Anthropogenic perturbations to the nitrogen cycle, primarily through use of synthetic fertilizers, is driving an unprecedented increase in the emission of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a potent greenhouse gas and an ozone depleting substance, causing urgency in identifying the sources and sinks of N 2 O. Microbial denitrification is a primary contributor to biotic production of N 2 O in anoxic regions of soil, marine systems, and wastewater treatment facilities. Here, through comprehensive genome analysis, we show that pathway partitioning is a ubiquitous mechanism of complete denitrification within microbial communities. We have investigated mechanisms and consequences of process partitioning of denitrification through detailed physiological characterization and kinetic modeling of a synthetic community of Rhodanobacter thiooxydans FW510-R12 and Acidovorax sp. GW101-3H11. We have discovered that these two bacterial isolates, from a heavily nitrate (NO 3 − ) contaminated superfund site, complete denitrification through the exchange of nitrite (NO 2 − ) and nitric oxide (NO). The process partitioning of denitrification and other processes, including amino acid metabolism, contribute to increased cooperativity within this denitrifying community. We demonstrate that certain contexts, such as high NO 3 − , cause unbalanced growth of community members, due to differences in their substrate utilization kinetics. The altered growth characteristics of community members drives accumulation of toxic NO 2 − , which disrupts denitrification causing N 2 O off gassing.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Comparative Life Cycle Assessment of Injection Molded and Big Area Additive Manufactured NdFeB Bonded Permanent Magnets

Permanent magnets are expected to play a crucial role in the realization of the clean economy. In particular, the neodymium-iron-boron (Nd2Fe14B or NdFeB) magnets, which have the highest energy density among rare earth permanent magnets, are needed for building more efficient windmill generators, electric vehicle motors, etc. Currently, near-net shape magnets can be either made through sintering and compression molding with extensive post machining or directly through injection molding. However, injection molding has a loading volume fraction limitation of 0.65 for nylon binders. A novel method of manufacturing bonded permanent magnets with loading fraction greater than 0.65 has been demonstrated using Big Area Additive Manufacturing (BAAM) printers. As energy density is directly proportional to the square of the magnet loading fraction, magnets produced using BAAM printers require less volume and magnetic material compared to that of injection molded magnets on average. A comparative LCA shows that this difference in magnetic powder consumption nearly constitutes the difference in the environmental impact categories. Even after assuming recycled magnetic input, the BAAM magnets perform better environmentally than injection molded magnets, especially in the ozone depletion category. Since BAAM printers can accommodate even higher loading fractions, at scale, BAAM printers possibly can bring about a significant decrease in rare earth mineral consumption and environmental emissions. So furthermore, single screw extrusion enables BAAM printers to have high print speeds and allow them to be economically competitive against injection molding. Therefore, BAAM printed magnets show promise in transitioning towards the clean economy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

LCA-based environmental sustainability assessment of hybrid additive manufacturing of a turbine blade

In this paper, a cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment (LCA) method is used to compare the overall energy consumption and environmental impact of hybrid additive manufacturing (HAM) and the traditional CNC milling process with a case study of turbine blade manufacturing. Six environmental impacts are assessed in this study: acidification potential (AP), eutrophication potential (EP), global warming potential (GWP), photochemical ozone creation potential (POCP), ozone depletion potential (ODP), and abiotic depletion potential (ADP). The results suggest that HAM can not only reduce energy consumption and material waste but also reduce the environmental impact by 53% from a life cycle perspective. Specifically, the results of GWP, AP, EP, ODP, POCP and ADP of the HAM are only 32.2%, 34.6 %, 44.7%, 27.2%, 25.6%, and 24.7 % of that in traditional CNC machining.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characteristics of U.S. Energy Production using Nuclear Fission

When considering potential energy production technologies for the future, a critical consideration centers on the question of “how green” the technology is. Here, the word “green” implies that the technology has a zero or minimal impact on the public and environment while still providing benefits by way of electricity, heat, and other products such as hydrogen and water. And, these potential impacts must be considered over the lifecycle of the technology deployment, from design, construction, operation, and disposition. Ideally, a green energy technology would be net-zero (i.e., having no to almost negligible contribution) on five key elements: 1. Greenhouse gas emissions, including carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases such as ozone-depleting gases 2. Water consumption 3. Material resource consumption 4. Disposition of wastes 5. Public, flora, and fauna safety including deaths, health, and environmental impacts. Society would benefit from net-zero impacts of the five elements above while having low-cost energy. As society starts to replace fossil fuels in the energy mix, we need to consider the possible impacts of adopted technologies. We need a production approach that provides large quantities of energy while being safe, reliable, economical, and sustainable. In this report, we describe a variety of characteristics related to the five elements above to provide a fact-supported, science-based depiction of nuclear fission as an energy providing technology. By better understanding how fission power is nearly net-zero in the five elements above, we can position our thinking to align with the overarching goal to provide society with a low-impact energy source.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Ecosystems and Networks Integrated with Genes and Molecular Assemblies (ENIGMA). Final report

The goal of the Stahl lab is to use a combination of isotopic, genomic, and activity-based analyses in the field, of selected field isolates, and defined synthetic communities to identify sources and sinks of different nitrogen species in the field, focusing on the FRC at the ORNL. The most general research objective is to characterize variants in the pathway for denitrification among field isolates and synthetic microbial assemblies as a foundation for predicting the biotic and abiotic controls of nitrogen and carbon transformations in the field. Specifically, we have focused on characterizing environmental controls of nitrous oxide emissions, an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting molecule. Studies have mapped the flux of nitrous oxide and controlling genetic elements within the FRC subsurface, indicating the importance of different enzyme variants in nitrous oxide production and consumption in controlling surface emissions. We have developed methods to quantify and catalog the isotopic signatures imparted on nitrous oxide by different nitrous oxide reductase variants in isolated organisms and model synthetic communities. We have developed methods to quantify and catalog the nitrous oxide affinity of field relevant isolates and their biomass yield when respiring nitrous oxide on different carbon substrates. We continue to expand the collection of field-relevant microbial isolates within ENIGMA by focused enrichment and isolation from field material. These objectives have been facilitated by the development of new technologies, including: 1) the development of a multiplexed automated optical density measurement system for quantifying growth kinetics of microorganisms dependent on gaseous substrates in monoculture or gas exchange in synthetic communities and 2) the development of a microcalorimetric analysis format to quantify the impact of environmental stress on microbial maintenance energy. Since field relevant processes are mediated by assemblies of organisms interacting with each other and their local environment, we have also collaborated with other ENIGMA investigators on the assembly and characterization of synthetic communities. These studies have evaluated the role of organisms lacking a complete pathway for denitrification in the control of field processes, measuring process rates of assemblies of organisms that individually lack the full denitrification pathway but mediate the complete denitrification when growing together. These efforts have so far resulted in the publication of 18 peer reviewed papers ranging from ecological and physiological drivers of pathway optimization to field-scale process characterization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Final Scientific/Technical Report-FREE-piston Zero Emissions Refrigerator (FREEZER)

The FREE-piston Zero Emissions Refrigerator (FREEZER™) is a natural refrigerant Stirling-cycle cooler developed by AMSC in partnership with Heatcraft, targeted as a replacement refrigeration system for walk-in coolers or freezers found commonly in restaurants, convenience stores, supermarkets, etc. The FREEZER™, combined with a closed-loop CO2 heat-transfer system, had the goal to provides an efficient (Target COP = 1.4), zero ODP (Ozone Depletion Potential) and near zero GWP (Global Warming Potential) refrigeration solution with no synthetic, flammable, or toxic refrigerants. Other near zero GWP refrigeration systems do not exist at the scale and performance level of FREEZER. ARPA-E Continuation Funding enabled the design and fabrication of one Advanced Development Unit (ADU) cooler and two Field Test Unit (FTU) coolers, and a new revised Field Test Unit (new FTU). Heatcraft was to extensively test the various coolers at their facilities, which closely simulate real-world conditions. The original plan was to install and operate FREEZER FTUs alongside a traditional cooling solution at one or more customer locations to obtain data on direct performance comparisons with existing commercial refrigeration systems. Success in this FREEZER refinement and field-test project will establish the basis for a new class of environmentally friendly refrigeration systems that will revolutionize the industry. The hardware developed under the program is shown below in Figure 1. Five Stirling-cycle machines were built within the program, with a sixth cooler still under construction. The original DU and the ADU coolers met the performance target with a coefficient of performance (COP) of 1.2. The FTU was underperforming during the initial tuning of the free-piston Stirling cycle dynamics when there was a catastrophic failure of the fasteners on pressure boundary. This caused a pause to the program while the failure mechanism was investigated. The root cause was an inadequate flange design that allowed an excessive cyclic loading on the fasteners, leading to a fatigue failure. It was determined that existing FTU design could not be reasonably salvaged in a safe manner, and that fact, combined with the lower-than-expected performance of the new experimental heat exchanger modules lead to the design of the “new FTU” with a more conventional shell-and-tube heat exchanger design which should get close to the design target COP of 1.4, but have a higher overall machine cost. The program ran out of time before the fabrication of the new FTU was completed, but AMSC is still working on the cooler, with the majority of the parts fabricated, and hopes to have the unit under test sometime in early 2022, after which it will be shipped to Heatcraft for additional testing.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Operational Energy Life Cycle Data Development for the National Institute of Standards And Technology (NIST) Building Industry Reporting and Design for Sustainability (BIRDS) Neutral Environmental Software Tool (NEST)

For this analysis, regionalized life cycle assessment (LCA) results for environmental impacts (using the Tool for Reduction and Assessment of Chemicals and Other Environmental Impacts [TRACI] 2.1) and cumulative energy demand (using the Federal Life Cycle Analysis Commons Elementary Flow List [FEDEFL] Inventory Methods v1.0.0) were evaluated for the production and utilization of electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and propane as commodities within residential and commercial buildings. These results can used as a framework for future research into net zero, high-performance buildings, such as done here for the Building Industry Reporting and Design for Sustainability (BIRDS) database by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Engineering Laboratory. The geographical results were assigned to each United States (U.S.) Zone Improvement Plan (ZIP) code based on the ZIP code location and corresponding Balancing Authority Area, natural gas basin, and Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs). Additionally, previously developed models were utilized to develop future life cycle profiles. Projections were based on data available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2022 through 2050 (AEO 2022). Electricity LCA models were updated based on AEO 2022 projected annual generation mixes, while the natural gas baseline model was updated based on projected shares of natural gas types (conventional, shale, tight, and coalbed methane). Projections of crude oil production rates and export rates were applied to the petroleum baseline model in five-year increments to investigate their effects on the life cycle profile of fuel oil and propane. While only 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP-100) with climate carbon feedback (CC-FB) and Cumulative Energy Demand are shown in Section 4: Results, the complete results, including Acidification Potential, Eutrophication Potential, Freshwater Ecotoxicity Potential, GWP-100 without inclusion of CC-FB, Human Health Impacts Potentials (Cancer, Non-Cancer), Ozone Depletion Potential, Particulate Matter Formation Potential, and Photochemical Smog Formation Potential, are tabulated for each ZIP code in the Excel worksheets that accompany this analysis. For the Excel spreadsheet tools associated with this report, please go to https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=f8890fac-be55-44ac-aaa9-e2888bfabe93

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗