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At least 37 records · Page 2

High Fidelity Collision Probabilities Estimated Using Brute Force Monte Carlo Simulations

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis team has implemented new software to estimate the probability of collision (P (sub c)) for Earth-orbiting satellites. The algorithm employs a brute force Monte Carlo (BFMC) method which differs from most other methods because it uses orbital states and covariances propagated from their orbit determination epoch times using the full set of Astrodynamics Support Workstation higher order theory models, including the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model. This paper de-scribes the BFMC algorithm, presents comparisons of BFMC P (sub c) estimates to those calculated using other methods, and discusses the implications for conjunction risk assessment.

Probabilities↗

The central engine of quasars and AGNs: A relativistic proton radiative shock

Active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and quasars (QSOs) appear to emit roughly equal energy per decade from radio to gamma-ray energies (e.g. Ramaty and Ligenfelter 1982). This argues strongly for a nonthermal radiation mechanism (see Rees 1984). In addition, statistical studies have indicated that the spectra of these objects in the IR-UV and 2 to 50 keV X-ray band, can be fitted very well with power laws of specific indices. These spectral indices do not seem to depend on the luminosity or morphology of the objects (Rothschild et al. 1983; Malkan 1984), and any theory should account for them in a basic and model independent way. If shocks accelerate relativistic protons via the first-order Fermi mechanism (e.g. Axfor 1981), the radiating electrons can be produced as secondaries throughout the source by proton-proton (p-p) collisions and pion decay, thus eliminating Compton losses (Protheroe and Kazanas 1983). As shown by Kazanas (1984), if relativistic electrons are injected at high energies, e+-e- pair production results in a steady state electron distribution that is very similar to that observed in AGNs, independent of the details of injection and the dynamics of the source. The conditions required by this mechanism are met in the shock model of Eichler (1984) and Ellison and Eichler (1984) which allows the self-consistent calculation of the shock acceleration efficiency.

Kazanas, D.↗

Trending in Probability of Collision Measurements

A simple model is proposed to predict the behavior of Probabilities of Collision (P(sub c)) for conjunction events. The model attempts to predict the location and magnitude of the peak P(sub c) value for an event by assuming the progression of P(sub c) values can be modeled to first order by a downward-opening parabola. To incorporate prior information from a large database of past conjunctions, the Bayes paradigm is utilized; and the operating characteristics of the model are established through a large simulation study. Though the model is simple, it performs well in predicting the temporal location of the peak (P(sub c)) and thus shows promise as a decision aid in operational conjunction assessment risk analysis.

Conjunction↗

The Effect of the Spin-Forbidden Co((sup 1) Sigma plus) plus O((sup 3) P) Yields CO2 (1 Sigma (sub G) plus) Recombination Reaction on Afterbody Heating of Mars Entry Vehicles

Vibrationally excited CO2, formed by two-body recombination from CO((sup 1) sigma plus) and O((sup 3) P) in the wake behind spacecraft entering the Martian atmosphere reaction, is potentially responsible for the higher than anticipated radiative heating of the backshell, compared to pre-flight predictions. This process involves a spin-forbidden transition of the transient triplet CO2 molecule to the longer-lived singlet. To accurately predict the singlet-triplet transition probability and estimate the thermal rate coefficient of the recombination reaction, ab initio methods were used to compute the first singlet and three lowest triplet CO2 potential energy surfaces and the spin-orbit coupling matrix elements between these states. Analytical fits to these four potential energy surfaces were generated for surface hopping trajectory calculations, using Tully's fewest switches surface hopping algorithm. Preliminary results for the trajectory calculations are presented. The calculated probability of a CO((sup 1) sigma plus) and O((sup 3) P) collision leading to singlet CO2 formation is on the order of 10 (sup -4). The predicted flowfield conditions for various Mars entry scenarios predict temperatures in the range of 1000 degrees Kelvin - 4000 degrees Kelvin and pressures in the range of 300-2500 pascals at the shoulder and in the wake, which is consistent with a heavy-particle collision frequency of 10 (sup 6) to 10 (sup 7) per second. Owing to this low collision frequency, it is likely that CO((sup 1) sigma plus) molecules formed by this mechanism will mostly be frozen in a highly nonequilibrium rovibrational energy state until they relax by photoemission.

CO2 recombination↗

Assessing GEO and LEO Repeating Conjunctions Using High Fidelity Brute Force Monte Carlo Simulations

Probability of collision (P(sub c)) estimates for Earth-orbiting satellites typically assume a temporally-isolated conjunction event. However, under certain conditions two objects may experience multiple high-risk close approach events over the course of hours or days. In these repeating conjunction cases, the P(sub c) accumulates as each successive encounter occurs. The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis team has updated its “brute force Monte Carlo” (BFMC) software to estimate such accumulating P(sub c) values for repeating conjunctions. This study describes the updated BFMC algorithm and discusses the implications for conjunction risk assessment.

Baars, Luis↗

Assessing Geo and Leo Repeating Conjunctions Using High Fidelity Brute Force Monte Carlo Simulations

Probability of collision (P(sub c)) estimates for Earth-orbiting satellites typically assume a temporally-isolated conjunction event. However, under certain conditions two objects may experience multiple high-risk close approach events over the course of hours or days. In these repeating conjunction cases, the P(sub c) accumulates as each successive encounter occurs. The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis team has updated its “brute force Monte Carlo” (BFMC) software to estimate such accumulating P(sub c) values for repeating conjunctions. This study describes the updated BFMC algorithm and discusses the implications for conjunction risk assessment.

Baars, Luis↗

Recommended Methods for Setting Mission Conjunction Analysis Hard Body Radii

For real-time conjunction assessment (CA) operations, computation of the Probability of Collision (P(sub c)) typically depends on the state vector, its covariance, and the combined hard body radius (HBR) of both the primary and secondary space-craft. However, most algorithmic approaches that compute the P(sub c) use generic conservatively valued HBRs that may tend to go beyond the physical limitations of both spacecraft, enough to drastically change the results of a conjunction assessment mitigation decision. On the other hand, if the attitude of the spacecraft is known and available, then a refined HBR can be obtained that could result in an improved and accurate numerically-computed P(sub c) value. The goal of this analysis is to demonstrate the various calculated P(sub c) values obtained based on a number of different HBR calculation techniques, oriented in the encounter or conjunction plane at the time of closest approach (TCA). Since in most conjunctions the secondary object is a debris object and thus orders of magnitude smaller than the primary, the greatest operational benefit is wrought by developing a better size estimate and representation for the primary object. We present an analysis that includes the attitude information of the primary object in the HBR calculation and assesses the resulting P(sub c) values for conjunction assessment decision making.

Mashiku, Alinda K.↗

Recommended Methods for Setting Mission Conjunction Analysis Hard Body Radii

For real-time conjunction assessment (CA) operations, computation of the Probability of Collision (P(sub c)) typically depends on the state vector, its covariance, and the combined hard body radius (HBR) of both the primary and secondary space-craft. However, most algorithmic approaches that compute the P(sub c) use generic conservatively valued HBRs that may tend to go beyond the physical limitations of both spacecraft, enough to drastically change the results of a conjunction assessment mitigation decision. On the other hand, if the attitude of the spacecraft is known and available, then a refined HBR can be obtained that could result in an improved and accurate numerically-computed P(sub c) value. The goal of this analysis is to demonstrate the various calculated P(sub c) values obtained based on a number of different HBR calculation techniques, oriented in the encounter or conjunction plane at the time of closest approach (TCA). Since in most conjunctions the secondary object is a debris object and thus orders of magnitude smaller than the primary, the greatest operational benefit is wrought by developing a better size estimate and representation for the primary object. We present an analysis that includes the attitude information of the primary object in the HBR calculation and assesses the resulting P(sub c) values for conjunction assessment decision making.

Mashiku, Alinda K.↗

Energy transfer of O(D-1) atoms in collision with O(P-3) atoms

Calculations are carried out of the elastic scattering and excitation exchange cross-sections in collisions of O(D-1) and O(P-3) atoms, which determine the degree of thermalization of the O(D-1) atoms produced by dissociative recombination in the thermosphere. The effective elastic scattering and excitation exchange cross-sections are calculated to be 1.55 x 10 to the -15th and 6.25 x 10 to the -16th sq cm, respectively, at a relative collision energy of 1.0 eV. The mutual diffusion coefficient between O(D-1) and O(P-3) atoms is also presented.

Yee, Jeng-Hwa↗

Centrality and collision system dependence of antiproton production from p+A to Au+Au collisions at AGS energies

Antiproton production in heavy ion collisions reflects subtle interplay between initial production and absorption by nucleons. Because the AGS energies (10--20 A(center-dot)GeV/c) are close to the antiproton production threshold, antiproton may be sensitive to cooperative processes such as QGP and hadronic multi-step processes. On the other hand, antiproton has been proposed as a probe of baryon density due to large N(anti N) annihilation cross sections. Cascade models predict the maximum baryon density reaches about 10 times the normal nucleus density in central Au+Au collisions, where the strong antiproton absorption is expected. In this paper, the authors show systematic studies of antiproton production from p+A to Au+Au collisions.

Sako, H.↗

Determination of primary energy in nucleus-nucleus collisions and the high P(sub)T tail of alpha-particles

A determination of primary energy is required in order to study the energy dependence of meson multiplicity in A-A collisions in cosmic rays. Various procedures which estimate the energy of a primary nucleus from its interaction were investigated. An average of two methods were used, one using the pions and wounded protons and the other using spectator protons and alpha particles. The high P sub T tail observed for Z = 2 fragments requires a modification of the latter method.

Freier, P. S.↗

Observation of CH A->X, Cn B->X, and NH A->X Emissions in Gas-phase Collisions of Fast O ((sup 3)P) Atoms with Hydrazines

Optical emissions in single-collision reactions of fast (20 eV laboratory translational energy) O((sup 3)P) atoms with hydrazine, methylhydrazine, and 1,1-dimethylhydrazine have been measured in a crossed-beams geometry. The emissions were observed in the wavelength range 325-440 nm, and were identified as the CH (A 2(sub A))-->X(sup 2)pi(sub r), (for methylhydrazine), CN (B sup 2) Sigma(sup +) --> X(sup 2) Sigma(sup +) (for methylhydrazine)and NH(A(sup 3)pi --> X(sup3 Sigma) transitions (for all three hydraz vibration-rotation bands were fit to a synthetic spectrum of CH, CN and NH with given vibrational and rotational temperatures.

chemical reactions↗

Observation of CH A (sup 2)Delta approaches X (sup 2)Pi(sub r) and B (sup 2)Sigma(sup -) approaches X (sup 2)Pi(sub r) emissions in gas-phase collisions of fast O((sup 3)P) atoms with acetylene

Optical emissions in single-collision, beam-beam reactions of fast (3-22 eV translational energy) O(P-3) atoms with C2H2 have been measured in the wavelength range 300-850 nm. Two features were observed, one with a peak wavelength at 431 nm, corresponding to the CH A (sup 2)Delta yields X (sup 2)Pi(sub r) transition, and a second weaker emission in the range 380-400 nm corresponding to the B (sup 2)Sigma(sup -) yields X (sup 2)Pi(sub r) transition. Both the A yields X and B yields X emissions were fit to a synthetic spectrum of CH(A) at a vibrational temperature T(sub v) of 10,000 K (0.86 eV) and a rotational temperature T(r) of approximately 5000 K (0.43 eV); and CH(B) to T(sub v) = 2500 K (0.22 eV) and T(sub r) = 1000 K (0.09 eV). The energy threshold for the A yields X emission was measured to be 7.3 +/- 0.4 eV (lab) or 4.5 +/- 0.2 eV (c.m.). This agrees with the energy threshold of 7.36 eV (lab) for the reaction O(P-3) + C2H2 yields CH(A) + HCO.

Orient, O. J.↗

Anti p and anti Lambda production in Si + Au collisions at the AGS

(anti (ital p)) and (anti (Lambda)) production in central Si + Au collisions has been measured by E589 at the BNL-AGS. Preliminary (ital m)(sub (perpendicular)) spectra are presented for (anti (ital p))'s and (anti (Lambda))'s. The (ital dn/dy) distribution for (anti (ital p))'s is also presented. Based on the (anti (ital p)) and (anti (Lambda)) measurements, (anti (Lambda))/(anti (ital p)) ratios are calculated in the rapidity range of 1.1-1.5.

Antilambda Particles↗

Oscillator strengths and collision strengths for S II

Calculations are presented of the collision strengths for electron impact excitation of S II from the ground 3s(2)3p(3)(4)S0 state to excited states 3s3p(4)(4)p, 3s(2(3p(2)4s(4)P, and 3s(2)3p(2)3d(4)P. The collision strengths are calculated in a close-coupling approximate ion for the energy range up to 10 to the 6th K. In addition, oscillator strengths are given for these transitions, as well as for some UV lines which have lower states 3s(2)3p(3)(2)D(O) and 3s(2)3p(3)(2)P(0). The calculation of the collision strengths involves the use of configuration interaction target wave functions which give oscillator strengths accurate to 30 percent in most cases.

Ho, Y. K.↗