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At least 37 records · Page 2

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Statistical Model Parameters

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is typically used to analyze the influence of uncertain parameters in mathematical models and simulations. In principle, tools from GSA may be extended to analyze the influence of parameters in statistical models. Such analyses may enable reduced or parsimonious modeling and greater predictive capability. Yet, difficulties such as parameter correlation, model stochasticity, multivariate model output, and unknown parameter distributions prohibit a direct application of GSA tools to statistical models. By leveraging a loss function associated with the statistical model, we introduce a novel framework to address these difficulties and enable efficient GSA for statistical model parameters. Theoretical and computational properties are considered and hihglighted on a synthetic example. The framework is applied to a Gaussian process model from the literature, which depends on 95 parameters. Noninfluential parameters are discovered through GSA, and a reduced model with equal or stronger predictive capability is constructed by using only 79 parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey (S{sup 5}): Chemical Abundances of Seven Stellar Streams

We present high-resolution Magellan/MIKE spectroscopy of 42 red giant stars in seven stellar streams confirmed by the Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey (S {sup 5}): ATLAS, Aliqa Uma, Chenab, Elqui, Indus, Jhelum, and Phoenix. Abundances of 30 elements have been derived from over 10,000 individual line measurements or upper limits using photometric stellar parameters and a standard LTE analysis. This is currently the most extensive set of element abundances for stars in stellar streams. Three streams (ATLAS, Aliqa Uma, and Phoenix) are disrupted metal-poor globular clusters, although only weak evidence is seen for the light-element anticorrelations commonly observed in globular clusters. Four streams (Chenab, Elqui, Indus, and Jhelum) are disrupted dwarf galaxies, and their stars display abundance signatures that suggest progenitors with stellar masses ranging from 10{sup 6} to 10{sup 7} M {sub ⊙}. Extensive description is provided for the analysis methods, including the derivation of a new method for including the effect of stellar parameter correlations on each star’s abundance and uncertainty. This paper includes data gathered with the 6.5 m Magellan Telescopes located at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Gamma-ray burst data strongly favour the three-parameter fundamental plane (Dainotti) correlation over the two-parameter one

ABSTRACT Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), observed to redshift z = 9.4, are potential probes of the largely unexplored z ∼ 2.7–9.4 part of the early Universe. Thus, finding relevant relations among GRB physical properties is crucial. We find that the Platinum GRB data compilation, with 50 long GRBs (with relatively flat plateaus and no flares) in the redshift range 0.553 ≤ z ≤ 5.0, and the LGRB95 data compilation, with 95 long GRBs in 0.297 ≤ z ≤ 9.4, as well as the 145 GRB combination of the two, strongly favour the 3D Fundamental Plane (Dainotti) correlation (between the peak prompt luminosity, the luminosity at the end of the plateau emission, and its rest-frame duration) over the 2D one (between the luminosity at the end of the plateau emission and its duration). The 3D Dainotti correlations in the three data sets are standardizable. We find that while LGRB95 data have ∼50 per cent larger intrinsic scatter parameter values than the better-quality Platinum data, they provide somewhat tighter constraints on cosmological-model and GRB-correlation parameters, perhaps solely due to the larger number of data points, 95 versus 50. This suggests that when compiling GRB data for the purpose of constraining cosmological parameters, given the quality of current GRB data, intrinsic scatter parameter reduction must be balanced against reduced sample size.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Erratum to “Estimating the effective system dead time parameter for correlated neutron counting” [Nucl. Instrum. Methods Phys. Res. A 871 (2017) 154–160]

The expressions given for φ, the ratio of effective system dead time to gate width, are wrong for the case of the third and fourth order forms because the simple square root is used when the 3rd and 4th roots, respectively, are required. We failed to notice during proof reading that this change from the submitted manuscript had crept in. The correct form should, however, be clear from the steps of the derivations outlined in the text; and so we hope our mistake has not misled anyone.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Azimuthal distributions in radiative decay of a polarized τ lepton

We investigate various distributions over emitted photon angles, especially over the azimuthal angle, in the one-meson radiative decay of the polarized τ lepton, τ{sup –} → π{sup –}γν{sub τ}. In connection with this, the photon phase space is discussed in more detail because it is nontrivial in the case of a polarized τ lepton. The decay matrix element contains both the inner bremsstrahlung and the resonance (structural) contributions. The azimuthal dependence of some observables are calculated. They are the asymmetry of the differential decay width caused by the τ-lepton polarization, the Stokes parameters of the emitted photon itself, and the correlation parameters describing the influence of τ-lepton polarization on the photon Stokes parameters. A numerical estimation is done in the τ-lepton rest frame for an arbitrary direction of the τ-lepton polarization 3-vector. The vector and axial-vector form factors describing the structure-dependent part of the decay amplitude are determined using the chiral effective theory with resonances (RχT). It is found that the features of the azimuthal distributions allows separating various terms in the spin-dependent contribution. The so-called up–down and right–left asymmetries are also calculated.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Electron Energy Partition across Interplanetary Shocks. III. Analysis

An analysis of model fit results of 15,210 electron velocity distribution functions (VDFs), observed within ±2 hr of 52 interplanetary (IP) shocks by the Wind spacecraft near 1 au, is presented as the third and final part on electron VDFs near IP shocks. The core electrons and protons dominate in the magnitude and change in the partialto-total thermal pressure ratio, with the core electrons often gaining as much or more than the protons. Only a moderate positive correlation is observed between the electron temperature and the kinetic energy change across the shock, while weaker, if any, correlations were found with any other macroscopic shock parameter. No VDF parameter correlated with the shock normal angle. The electron VDF evolves from a narrowly peaked core with flaring suprathermal tails in the upstream to either a slightly hotter core with steeper tails or much hotter flattop core with even steeper tails downstream of the weaker and strongest shocks, respectively. Both quasi-static and fluctuating fields are examined as possible mechanisms modifying the VDF, but neither is sufficient alone. For instance, flattop VDFs can be generated by nonlinear ion acoustic wave stochastic acceleration (i.e., inelastic collisions), while other work suggested they result from the combination of quasi-static and fluctuating fields. This three-part study shows that not only are these systems not thermodynamic in nature; even kinetic models may require modification to include things like inelastic collision operators to properly model electron VDF evolution across shocks or in the solar wind.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Application of the immobilized low-activity waste glass corrosion model to the static dissolution of 24 statistically-designed alkali-borosilicate waste glasses

Glass corrosion models that capture the complex mechanisms of the glass-water reaction enable the prediction of nuclear waste glass durability in disposal scenarios. Parameterization of such models is challenging because of the need to capture changes in corrosion behavior with time, reaction conditions, and glass composition. In this report we describe and employ the immobilized low activity waste (ILAW) glass corrosion model (IGCM) in geochemical simulations of static dissolution tests, at two temperatures (40 °C and 90 °C), for a matrix of 24 enhanced low activity waste (eLAW) glasses statistically designed to cover a processable composition space defined by 8 major glass components (Al 2 O 3 , B 2 O 3 , CaO, Na 2 O, SiO 2 , SnO 2 , ZrO 2 , and Others as defined in the text). The IGCM includes a first-order chemical affinity term and an ion-exchange term that represents the net exchange of Na+ ions in the pristine glass with protons in aqueous solution. Constant, time-dependent, and time- and pH-dependent functional forms of the ion-exchange term are evaluated to reproduce the change in corrosion behavior with time in saturated, static dissolution tests. The agreement with measured aqueous concentrations of the main glass components (B, Na, and Si) improved significantly upon addition of a time-dependent term, which therefore constitutes a simple representation of the glass-water reaction progress. Due to the limited changes in pH in the static dissolution tests, past a short initial period of rapid increase, addition of a pH dependent term did not appreciably improve the fits, indicating that comprehensive model parameterization requires more than one type of glass corrosion test to capture a wide range of solution chemistries. IGCM parameters were found to be dependent on glass composition, and the parameter sets generated in this work will enable the development of composition–parameter correlation models that offer the promise of predicting IGCM parameters, and thus glass corrosion behavior, solely based on glass composition.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Fragility correlates thermodynamic and kinetic properties of glass forming liquids

Graphical abstract: The suggested new fragility parameter correlates viscosity and configurational entropy. - Highlights: • A new fragility function, F=ΔT/ΔC{sub p}×C{sub p}{sup l}/T{sub g} has been proposed. • A three parameter viscosity function using the new F reproduces Angell fragility plot. • A new ΔC{sub p} function is derived which directly relates Adam–Gibbs function with the fragility based viscosity function. - Abstract: In our earlier communication we proposed a simple fragility determining function, ([NBO]/V{sub m}{sup 3}T{sub g}), which we have now used to analyze several glass systems using available thermal data. A comparison with similar fragility determining function, ΔC{sub p}/C{sub p}{sup l}, introduced by Chryssikos et al. in their investigation of lithium borate glasses has also been performed and found to be more convenient quantity for discussing fragilities. We now propose a new function which uses both ΔC{sub p} and ΔT and which gives a numerical fragility parameter, F whose value lies between 0 and 1 for glass forming liquids. F can be calculated through the use of measured thermal parameters ΔC{sub p}, C{sub p}{sup l}, T{sub g} and T{sub m}. Use of the new fragility values in reduced viscosity equation reproduces the whole range of viscosity curves of the Angell plot. The reduced viscosity equation can be directly compared with the Adam–Gibbs viscosity equation and a heat capacity function can be formulated which reproduces satisfactorily the ΔC{sub p} versus ln(T{sub r}) curves and hence the configurational entropy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Study of neutron beta decay with the Nab experiment

The current three sigma tension in the unitarity test of the Cabbibo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) matrix is a notable problem with the Standard Model of elementary particle physics. A long-standing goal of the study of free neutron beta decay is to better determine the CKM element Vud through measurements of the neutron lifetime and a decay correlation parameter. The Nab collaboration intends to measure a, the neutrino-electron correlation, with accuracy sufficient for a competitive evaluation of Vud based on neutron decay data alone. This paper gives a status report and an outlook.

Baessler, Stefan↗

Multiplication and Presence of Shielding Material from Time-Correlated Pulse-Height Measurements of Subcritical Plutonium Assemblies

Here, we present the results from the first measurements of the Time-Correlated Pulse-Height (TCPH) distributions from 4.5 kg sphere of α-phase weapons-grade plutonium metal in five configurations: bare, reflected by 1.27 cm and 2.54 cm of tungsten, and 2.54 cm and 7.62 cm of polyethylene. A new method for characterizing source multiplication and shielding configuration is also demonstrated. The method relies on solving for the underlying fission chain timing distribution that drives the spreading of the measured TCPH distribution. We found that a gamma distribution fits the fission chain timing distribution well and that the fit parameters correlate with both multiplication (rate parameter) and shielding material types (shape parameter). The source-to-detector distance was another free parameter that we were able to optimize, and proved to be the most well constrained parameter. MCNPX-PoliMi simulations were used to complement the measurements and help illustrate trends in these parameters and their relation to multiplication and the amount and type of material coupled to the subcritical assembly.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Facile synthesis of B-type carbonated nanoapatite with tailored microstructure

Nanolime and a phosphate-based chelating agent were used to synthesize B-type carbonated apatite. Developed Rietveld refinement strategies allowed one to determine process yield, product crystallinity as well as structural (unit cell) and microstructural (size, strain) parameters. The effect of synthesis temperature (20–60 °C) as well as Ca/P ratio (1.5–2.5) and solid content (10–30 wt%) of the starting batch on these properties were investigated. FTIR, TEM and gas adsorption data provided supporting evidence. The process yield was 42–60 wt% and found to be governed by the Ca/P ratio. The purified products had high specific surface area (107–186 m{sup 2}/g) and crystallinity (76–97%). The unit cell parameters, correlated to the degree of structural carbonate, were sensitive to the Ca/P ratio. Instead, temperature governed the microstructural parameters. Less strained and larger crystals were obtained at higher temperatures. Long-term aging up to 6 months at 20 °C compensated for higher crystal growth kinetics at higher temperature. - Graphical abstract: Controlled synthesis of carbonated apatite at moderate temperatures using nanolime and sodiumhexametaphosphate as starting reagent. - Highlights: • Chemical synthesis of nano-sized apatite with tailored microstructure was performed. • Colloidal Ca(OH){sub 2} and a phosphorus-based chelating agents were used as reagents. • The method is simple and reproducible which facilitate industrial process scale-up. • Rietveld refinement strategies for product characterization were developed. • Rietveld analyses provided yield, microstructural and structure information.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A CIRCULAR-CYLINDRICAL FLUX-ROPE ANALYTICAL MODEL FOR MAGNETIC CLOUDS

We present an analytical model to describe magnetic flux-rope topologies. When these structures are observed embedded in Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) with a depressed proton temperature, they are called Magnetic Clouds (MCs). Our model extends the circular-cylindrical concept of Hidalgo et al. by introducing a general form for the radial dependence of the current density. This generalization provides information on the force distribution inside the flux rope in addition to the usual parameters of MC geometrical information and orientation. The generalized model provides flexibility for implementation in 3D MHD simulations. Here, we evaluate its performance in the reconstruction of MCs in in situ observations. Four Earth-directed ICME events, observed by the Wind spacecraft, are used to validate the technique. The events are selected from the ICME Wind list with the magnetic obstacle boundaries chosen consistently with the magnetic field and plasma in situ observations and with a new parameter (EPP, the Electron Pitch angle distribution Parameter) which quantifies the bidirectionally of the plasma electrons. The goodness of the fit is evaluated with a single correlation parameter to enable comparative analysis of the events. In general, at first glance, the model fits the selected events very well. However, a detailed analysis of events with signatures of significant compression indicates the need to explore geometries other than the circular-cylindrical. An extension of our current modeling framework to account for such non-circular CMEs will be presented in a forthcoming publication.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dose–Volume Relationships Associated With Temporal Lobe Radiation Necrosis After Skull Base Proton Beam Therapy

Purpose: We evaluated patient and treatment parameters correlated with development of temporal lobe radiation necrosis. Methods and Materials: This was a retrospective analysis of a cohort of 66 patients treated for skull base chordoma, chondrosarcoma, adenoid cystic carcinoma, or sinonasal malignancies between 2005 and 2012, who had at least 6 months of clinical and radiographic follow-up. The median radiation dose was 75.6 Gy (relative biological effectiveness [RBE]). Analyzed factors included gender, age, hypertension, diabetes, smoking status, use of chemotherapy, and the absolute dose:volume data for both the right and left temporal lobes, considered separately. A generalized estimating equation (GEE) regression analysis evaluated potential predictors of radiation necrosis, and the median effective concentration (EC50) model estimated dose–volume parameters associated with radiation necrosis. Results: Median follow-up time was 31 months (range 6-96 months) and was 34 months in patients who were alive. The Kaplan-Meier estimate of overall survival at 3 years was 84.9%. The 3-year estimate of any grade temporal lobe radiation necrosis was 12.4%, and for grade 2 or higher radiation necrosis was 5.7%. On multivariate GEE, only dose–volume relationships were associated with the risk of radiation necrosis. In the EC50 model, all dose levels from 10 to 70 Gy (RBE) were highly correlated with radiation necrosis, with a 15% 3-year risk of any-grade temporal lobe radiation necrosis when the absolute volume of a temporal lobe receiving 60 Gy (RBE) (aV60) exceeded 5.5 cm{sup 3}, or aV70 > 1.7 cm{sup 3}. Conclusions: Dose–volume parameters are highly correlated with the risk of developing temporal lobe radiation necrosis. In this study the risk of radiation necrosis increased sharply when the temporal lobe aV60 exceeded 5.5 cm{sup 3} or aV70 > 1.7 cm{sup 3}. Treatment planning goals should include constraints on the volume of temporal lobes receiving higher dose. The EC50 model provides suggested dose–volume temporal lobe constraints for conventionally fractionated high-dose skull base radiation therapy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Crustal and uppermost mantle structure in the Middle East: assessing constraints provided by jointly modelling Ps and Sp receiver functions and Rayleigh wave group velocity dispersion curves

Seismic velocity models are found, along with uncertainty estimates, for 11 sites in the Middle East by jointly modelling Ps and Sp receiver functions and surface (Rayleigh) wave group velocity dispersion. The approach performs a search for models that satisfy goodness-of-fit criteria guided by a variant of simulated annealing and uses statistical tools to assess these products of searches. These tools, a parameter correlation matrix and marginal posterior probability density (PPD) function, allow us to evaluate quantitatively the constraints that each data type imposes on model parameters and to identify portions of each model that are well-constrained relative to other portions. This joint modelling technique, which we call ‘multi-objective optimization for seismology’, does not require a good starting solution, although such a model can be incorporated easily, if available, and can reduce the computation time significantly. Applying the process described above to broadband seismic data reveals that crustal thickness varies from 15 km beneath Djibouti (station ATD) to 45 km beneath Saudi Arabia (station RAYN). A pronounced low velocity zone for both Vp and Vs is present at a depth of ~12 km beneath station KIV located in northern part of greater Caucasus, which may be due to the presence of a relatively young volcano. Similarly, we also noticed a 6-km-thick low velocity zone for Vp beginning at 20 km depth beneath seismic station AGIN, on the Anatolian plateau, while positive velocity gradients prevail elsewhere in eastern Turkey. Beneath station CSS, located in Cyprus, an anomalously slow layer is found in the uppermost mantle, which may indicate the presence of altered lithospheric material. Crustal P- and S-wave velocities beneath station D2, located in the northeastern portion of central Zagros, range between 5.2–6.2 and 3.2–3.8 km s -1 , respectively. Finally, in Oman, we find a Moho depth of 34.0 ± 1.0 km and 25.0 ± 1.0 to 30.0 ± 1.0 km beneath stations S02 and S04, respectively.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Precision Tests of the Electroweak Interaction using Trapped Atoms and Ions

The objective of the proposed research is to study fundamental aspects of the electroweak interaction via precision measurements in beta decay to test our current understanding of fundamental particles and forces as contained in the so-called "Standard Model" of particle physics. By comparing elegant experiments to rigorous theoretical predictions, we will either confirm the Standard Model to a higher degree and rule out models which seek to extend it, or find evidence of new physics and help guide theorists in developing the New Standard Model. The use of ion and neutral atom traps at radioactive ion beam facilities has opened up a new vista in precision low-energy nuclear physics experiments. Traps provide an ideal source of decaying atoms: they can be extremely cold (~1 mK); they are compact (~1 mm^3); and perhaps most importantly, the daughter particles escape with negligible distortions to their momenta in a scattering-free, open environment. The project is taking advantage of these technologies and applying them to precision beta-decay studies at radioactive beam facilities. The program consists of two complementary efforts: 1) Ion traps are an extremely versatile tool for purifying, cooling and bunching low-energy beams of short-lived nuclei. A large-bore (210~mm) superconducting 7-Tesla solenoid is at the heart of a Penning trap system for which there is a dedicated beamline at T-REX, the upgraded radioactive beam facility at the Cyclotron Institute, Texas A&M University. In addition to providing a general-purpose decay station, the flagship program for this system is measuring the ft-values and beta-neutrino correlation parameters from isospin T=2 superallowed beta-delayed proton decays, complimenting and expanding the already strong program in fundamental interactions at the Institute. 2) A magneto-optical trap is being used at the TRIUMF Neutral Atom Trap facility to observe the (un)polarized angular distribution parameters of isotopes of potassium. We are able to highly polarize laser-cooled atoms and observe their decay with unprecedented precision. The correlation of the daughter beta particle with the initial nuclear spin as well as other correlations are sensitive to physics beyond the Standard Model. Both of these cutting-edge and exciting research efforts will test our understanding of the fundamental symmetries underlying our current theory of electroweak interactions. Complementary to high-energy collider experiments, these low-energy nuclear physics "table-top" experiments will search for new particles and interactions which are not already described by the Standard Model of particle physics. The value of this research is recognized to be cross-disciplinary, exciting and potentially revolutionary in our understanding of nature's fundamental interactions. Accordingly, it has been endorsed by the recent (2007) Nuclear Science Advisory Committee's Long Range Plan as part of their recommendation for a "New Standard Model Initiative." In addition to the near-term benefits of scholarly publications and visibility through description of this work at international conferences, an important benefit of this research program is the training of new, young and enthusiastic nuclear physicists. Participants in this demanding and rewarding field develop a very strong background in physics with experience in a range of its subfields since we use atomic techniques and apply them to a nuclear physics experiment which in the end tests the theories of high-energy physics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Improving Microstructural Quantification in 3D FIB-SEM Tomography

A detailed understanding of 3D microstructural features is crucial during postprocessing of the acquired data, while determining microstructural properties. Focused ion beam and scanning electron microscopy (fib-sem) is an ideal technique for the acquisition and quantification of 3D microstructures in subsurface features. In this work, we evaluated and implemented approaches to quantify 3D morphological features of plutonium oxalate and oxide particles. Image analysis, as well as statistical analysis were utilized to study the effect of process variables on the pore morphology of plutonium oxalate and oxide particles. The primary results were the creation of morphological maps of particles and identify indicators that correlated parameters allowing for discrimination between direct and reverse strike processes. This enabled us to properly quantify and map particles with their images obtained via sem. For this project, the highest correlation was found to be between Volume and Sphericity (R 2 = 0.7432) for the Revere Strike process, and Volume % and Sphericity (R 2 = 0.7450) for the Direct Strike process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Early MRI Blood Volume Changes in Constrictor Muscles Correlate With Postradiation Dysphagia

Predicting individual patient sensitivity to radiation therapy (RT) for tumor control or normal tissue toxicity is necessary to individualize treatment planning. In head and neck cancer, radiation doses are limited by many nearby critical structures, including structures involved in swallowing. Previous efforts showed that imaging parameters correlate with RT dose; here, we investigate the role of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) blood volume (BV) changes in predicting dysphagia.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗