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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

5-2428: Fracture Permeability Impact on Seismic Slip Behavior

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modeling approaches to reduce parameter uncertainty and better predict/mitigate seismic hazard at EGS sites. Our novel approach couples 3D physics-based earthquake simulations with THMC models (THMc+E). This capability will enable improve engineering decisions at Utah-FORGE and move EGS operations toward repeatable, robust, economically viable, and socially accepted development. For example, our THMC+E models will predict circulation scenarios and related seismic hazard for a suite of flow rates and under uncertainty, thus enabling evaluation of optimal circulation strategy. Laboratory experiments will be performed to constrain key model parameters and Bayesian techniques will provide a probabilistic evaluation of parameters used in models. THMC+E simulations will enable exploration various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification for misspecified machine learned interatomic potentials

The use of high-dimensional regression techniques from machine learning has significantly improved the quantitative accuracy of interatomic potentials. Atomic simulations can now plausibly target quantitative predictions in a variety of settings, which has brought renewed interest in robust means to quantify uncertainties. In many practical settings where model complexity is constrained (e.g., due to performance considerations), misspecification — the inability of any one choice of model parameters to exactly match all training data — is a key contributor to errors that is often disregarded. Here, we employ a recent misspecification-aware regression technique to quantify parameter uncertainties, which is then propagated to a broad range of phase and defect properties in tungsten. The propagation is performed through both brute-force resampling and implicit Taylor expansion. The propagated misspecification uncertainties robustly quantify and bound errors on a broad range of material properties. We demonstrate application to recent foundational machine learning interatomic potentials, accurately predicting and bounding errors in MACE-MPA-0 energy predictions across the diverse materials project database.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

5-2428: Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior [Slides]

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that also includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modelling approaches to reduce parameter uncertainty and better integrate friction constitutive laws for faults to improve our ability to predict and mitigate seismic hazard at Utah FORGE and future EGS sites. We propose a novel approach that incorporates 3D physics-based Earthquake simulations in THMC models, using lab measurements of friction parameters, herein referred to as “THMC+E” models. These simulations will enable exploration of various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity analysis of thermal contact conductance modeling to inform MiniFuel irradiation capsule designs

The MiniFuel irradiation platform has been developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory as a flexible, high-throughput separate effects testing capability within the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). Finite element thermal models are relied upon to design MiniFuel experiments to achieve a specific time-averaged irradiation temperature for experimental objectives. A previous study identified that uncertainty in the component heat generation rates and thermal contact conductance (TCC) model are the most significant contributors to predicted fuel temperature variance. To address both sources of uncertainty, this work performs sensitivity analysis on the TCC model to identify high-impact, high-uncertainty parameters that contribute to fuel temperature variance. The TCC model is analyzed in increasing detail, first using a standalone Python code, then again after coupling Python to the BISON fuel performance code. Furthermore, the parameters with the largest contributions to fuel temperature variance which can be reduced through design changes are identified as the initial subcapsule gas pressure, contact pressure between the fuel and dish, and the effective surface roughness of the interface. A set of design recommendations for future capsule designs has been established and applied to reduce the previously quantified average fuel temperature uncertainty ranges of ± 40 °C in the HFIR vertical experiment facilities (VXF) and ± 80 °C in the removable beryllium (RB) reflector to approximately ± 32 °C and ± 53 °C, respectively. This equates to a 21 % and 33 % reduction in the uncertainty range of the average fuel temperature for VXF and RB, respectively.

BISON↗
DOE OSTI2026

HFIR Steady State Heat Transfer Code (HSSHTC) Statistical Uncertainty Analysis

HSSHTC, the safety basis steady state TH code for HFIR, uses a highly conservative approach in which all input and calculation uncertainties are resolved simultaneously at their most limiting setting. This results in excessive conservatism which does not account for the high unlikelihood of such simultaneous worst-case conditions. The present study explores an alternative approach, BEPU, in which reasonable working assumptions for the probability distribution of each input uncertainty are used to determine a relationship between burnout power margin and core fuel failure probability. This was performed under a philosophy of perturbing uncertainty parameters already defined within the HSSHTC methodology while preserving the HSSHTC calculation approach and solution methodology itself. Based on the assumptions employed in this study, the BEPU approach resulted in a 0.29 increase in burnout power ratio (25 MW increase in burnout power) compared to the latest HSSHTC calculations of C-HFIR-2026-004. The study can be refined in the future by employing fuel fabrication data to provide more realistic input distributions. Future changes to the HSSHTC methodology would potentially allow a more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties which may further increase the burnout power ratio.

Wysocki, Aaron [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000222043779)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cosmology with second- and third-order shear statistics for the Dark Energy Survey: Methods and simulated analysis

We present a new pipeline designed for the robust inference of cosmological parameters using both second- and third-order shear statistics. We build a theoretical model for rapid evaluation of three-point correlations using our fastnc code and integrate it into the cosmosis framework. We measure the two-point functions 𝜉 ± and the full configuration-dependent three-point shear correlation functions across all auto- and cross-redshift bins. We compress the three-point functions into the mass aperture statistic ⟨ℳ$^{3}_{ap}$⟩ for a set of 796 simulated shear maps designed to model the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 data. We estimate from it the full covariance matrix and model the effects of intrinsic alignments, shear calibration biases and photometric redshift uncertainties. We apply scale cuts to minimize the contamination from the baryonic signal as modeled through hydrodynamical simulations. We find a significant improvement of 83% on the figure of merit in the Ω m − 𝑆 8 plane when we add the ⟨ℳ$^{3}_{ap}$⟩ data to 𝜉 ± . Here, we present our findings for all relevant cosmological and systematic uncertainty parameters and discuss the complementarity of third-order and second-order statistics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cross-Scale Catalyst Modeling Applied to H 2 Storage and Release via Formic Acid

Here, we propose the Systems-to-Atoms (S2A) modeling framework that integrates the kinetics of reaction chemistry and structural configurations across various length scales with the aim of establishing a versatile template for multiscale modeling of reactive flow problems and to predict the operando activity of catalyst materials. The approach encompasses a microkinetic model to analyze surface reactions on individual facets of catalyst nanoparticles coupled with the computation of average surface reaction rates for catalyst nanoparticles of specific size distributions. Macro-homogeneous surface reaction kinetics are derived as a function of catalyst loading and used as input parameters for the continuum-scale reactor model. The cross-scale framework enables the optimization of catalyst utilization through reactor design and operating strategy. To demonstrate the framework, we studied the storage and release of hydrogen from formic acid, a promising liquid organic hydrogen carrier (LOHC), over Pd, Pt, and Cu catalysts. The framework predicts observed trends in formic acid dehydrogenation activity for catalysts with comparable weight loadings and metal particle diameters, demonstrating satisfactory quantitative alignment. Finally, the seamless transmission of parameter uncertainties between scales is also discussed.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uniting Surface Properties With Hydrodynamic Roughness in Shallow Overland Flow Models

Describing flow resistance from the properties of an underlying surface is a challenge in surface hydrology. Runoff models must specify a resistance formulation or “roughness scheme”—describing the functional relationship between flow resistance and flow depth/velocity—and its parameters. Uncertainty in runoff predictions derives from both the selected roughness scheme (e.g., Darcy Weisbach, Manning's, or laminar flow equations), and its parameterization with a roughness coefficient (e.g., Manning's n). Both choices are informed by model calibration to data, usually discharge, and, if available, velocity. In this study, a Saint Venant Equation-based runoff model is calibrated to discharge and velocity data from 112 rainfall simulator experiments. The results are used to identify the optimal roughness scheme among four widely-used options for each experiment, and to explore whether surface properties can be used to select the optimal roughness scheme and its coefficient. Among the tested roughness schemes, a transitional flow equation provided the best fit to the plurality of experiments. The most suitable roughness scheme for a given experiment was not related to measured surface properties. Regression models predicted the calibrated roughness coefficients with adjusted values between 0.48 and 0.54, depending on the roughness scheme used. Litter cover was the best predictor of the roughness coefficient, followed by soil cover and average canopy gap size. The results suggest that selection of an optimal roughness scheme based on surface properties alone remains difficult, but that once a scheme is selected, roughness coefficients can be estimated from surface properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian stability and force modeling for uncertain machining processes

Accurately simulating machining operations requires knowledge of the cutting force model and system frequency response. However, this data is collected using specialized instruments in an ex-situ manner. Bayesian statistical methods instead learn the system parameters using cutting test data, but to date, these approaches have only considered milling stability. This paper presents a physics-based Bayesian framework which incorporates both spindle power and milling stability. Initial probabilistic descriptions of the system parameters are propagated through a set of physics functions to form probabilistic predictions about the milling process. The system parameters are then updated using automatically selected cutting tests to reduce parameter uncertainty and identify more productive cutting conditions, where spindle power measurements are used to learn the cutting force model. The framework is demonstrated through both numerical and experimental case studies. Results show that the approach accurately identifies both the system natural frequency and cutting force model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Plutonium Decorporation in a Female Nuclear Worker Treated with Ca-DTPA after Inhalation Intake

The present work models plutonium (Pu) biokinetics in a female former nuclear worker. Her bioassay measurements are available at the US Transuranium and Uranium Registries. The worker was internally exposed to a plutonium-americium mixture via acute inhalation at a nuclear weapons facility. She was medically treated with injections of 1 g Ca-DTPA on days 0, 5, and 14 after the intake. Between days 0 and 20, fecal and urine samples were collected and analyzed for 239 Pu and 241 Am. Subsequently, she was followed up for bioassay monitoring over 14 y, with additional post-treatment urine samples collected and analyzed for 239 Pu. The uniqueness of this dataset is due to the availability of: (1) both early and long-term bioassay data from a female with plutonium intake; (2) data on chelation therapy for a female; and (3) fecal measurement results. Chelation therapy with Ca- and/or Zn-salts of DTPA is known to aid in reducing the internal radiation dose by enhancing the excretion of plutonium and americium from the body. Such enhancement affects plutonium biokinetics in the human body, posing a challenge to the internal dose assessment. The current radiation dose assessment practice is to exclude the data affected by Ca-DTPA from the analysis. The present analysis is the first to explicitly model the chelation-affected bioassay data in a female by using a newly developed chelation model. Thus, the bioassay data collected during and after the Ca-DTPA administrations were used for biokinetic modeling and dose assessment. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method was used to investigate model parameter uncertainty, based on the bioassay data and assumed prior probability distributions. A χ 2 /nData (number of data points) ≈ 1 was observed in this study, which indicates self-consistency of the data with the model. Results of this study show that the worker’s 239 Pu intake was 12 Bq, with a committed effective dose to the whole-body of 1.2 mSv and a committed equivalent dose to the bone surfaces, liver, and lungs of 37.8, 9.1, and 0.8 mSv, respectively. This study also discusses the worker’s dose reduction due to chelation treatment.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Cosmological constraints from second- and third-order shear statistics

Here, we present a cosmological analysis of the third-order aperture mass statistic using Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) data. We perform a complete tomographic measurement of the three-point correlation function of the Y3 weak lensing shape catalog with the four fiducial source redshift bins. Building upon our companion methodology paper, we apply a pipeline that combines the two-point function ξ ± with the mass aperture skewness statistic ⟨ M ap 3 ⟩ , which is an efficient compression of the full shear three-point function. We use a suite of simulated shear maps to obtain a joint covariance matrix. By jointly analyzing ξ ± and ⟨ M ap 3 ⟩ measured from DES Y3 data with a Λ CDM model, we find S 8 = 0.780 ± 0.015 and Ω m = 0.26 6 - 0.040 + 0.039 , yielding 111% of figure-of-merit improvement in the Ω m - S 8 plane relative to ξ ± alone, consistent with expectations from simulated likelihood analyses. With a w CDM model, we find S 8 = 0.74 9 - 0.026 + 0.027 and w 0 = - 1.39 ± 0.31 , which gives an improvement of 22% on the joint S 8 - w 0 constraint. Our results are consistent with w 0 = - 1 . Our new constraints are compared to CMB data from the Planck satellite, and we find that with the inclusion of ⟨ M ap 3 ⟩ the existing tension between the datasets is at the level of 2.3 σ . We show that the third-order statistic enables us to self-calibrate the mean photometric redshift uncertainty parameter of the highest redshift bin with little degradation in the figure of merit. Our results demonstrate the constraining power of higher-order lensing statistics and establish ⟨ M ap 3 ⟩ as a practical observable for joint analyses in current and future surveys.

Gomes, R. C. H. [University of Pennsylvania] (ORCI↗
DOE OSTI2025

pnnl/MCRASTA

McRasta (Markov Chain Rate and State Analysis) was developed to estimate parameter uncertainty in constitutive friction models via Bayesian inverse and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

Fichera, Marissa [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Streambed Grain Size, Uncertainty, and Hydrobiogeochemical Parameters Using Machine Learning Model YOLO

Abstract Streambed grain sizes control river hydro‐biogeochemical (HBGC) processes and functions. However, measuring their quantities, distributions, and uncertainties is challenging due to the diversity and heterogeneity of natural streams. This work presents a photo‐driven, artificial intelligence (AI)‐enabled, and theory‐based workflow for extracting the quantities, distributions, and uncertainties of streambed grain sizes from photos. Specifically, we first trained You Only Look Once, an object detection AI, using 11,977 grain labels from 36 photos collected from nine different stream environments. We demonstrated its accuracy with a coefficient of determination of 0.98, a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.98, and a mean absolute relative error of 6.65% in predicting the median grain size of 20 ground‐truth photos representing nine typical stream environments. The AI is then used to extract the grain size distributions and determine their characteristic grain sizes, including the 10th, 50th, 60th, and 84th percentiles, for 1,999 photos taken at 66 sites within a watershed in the Northwest US. The results indicate that the 10th, median, 60th, and 84th percentiles of the grain sizes follow log‐normal distributions, with most likely values of 2.49, 6.62, 7.68, and 10.78 cm, respectively. The average uncertainties associated with these values are 9.70%, 7.33%, 9.27%, and 11.11%, respectively. These data allow for the computation of the quantities, distributions, and uncertainties of streambed HBGC parameters, including Manning's coefficient, Darcy‐Weisbach friction factor, top layer interstitial velocity magnitude, and nitrate uptake velocity. Additionally, major sources of uncertainty in grain sizes and their impact on HBGC parameters are examined.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

How initial conditions-, structural-, and parameter-based model uncertainty interact and influence predictions in permafrost ecosystems: Modeling Archive

This dataset contains model output and input data, as well as source code examples for the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model with the Dynamic Vegetation Model and Dynamic Organic Soil (DVM-DOS-TEM) for the field sites Imnavait creek and the Bonanza creek Long Term Ecological Research Network (LTER). The data covers simulations from the last glacial maximum (LGM) until 2100 for a selection of paleo scenarios, setting the mean temperature of the LGM up to 10°C lower than pre-industrial conditions. The model structure was modulated to represent various model versions, and this dataset contains the relevant changes in the source code. The raw output data, the processed statistical data, the setup and processing scripts as well as parameter value distribution files from a parameter sensitivity analysis are included as well. Model outputs include active layer depth, organic soil carbon, soil layer depths, gross primary productivity (GPP) with and without nitrogen limitation, net primary productivity (NPP), soil liquid water content, heterotrophic, maintenance, and growth respiration, soil temperature, and vegetation carbon (*.nc files). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for multicomponent CALPHAD model optimization and uncertainty quantification

CALPHAD model parameter optimization is inherently challenging due to non-smooth objective functions, high-dimensional parameter spaces, and the need for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Traditional weighted nonlinear least squares approaches are computationally efficient but local, whereas black-box global optimizers and ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide broader exploration at substantial computational cost. The objective of this work is to combine the global exploration capability of gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo – specifically the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) – with local deterministic refinement using BFGS to efficiently optimize multicomponent CALPHAD models with minimal manual intervention. Analytic gradients are computed via the Jansson derivative framework. The methodology is demonstrated on the Cr—Fe binary system and extended to the Cr—Fe—Ni ternary system with 32 degrees of freedom. For Cr—Fe, NUTS achieves comparable or superior optimality relative to ensemble MCMC while requiring over an order-of-magnitude fewer likelihood evaluations. Parameter uncertainties are quantified through NUTS sampling and propagated to thermodynamic observables using local expansion, demonstrating a novel modular approach that combines binary and ternary parameter subsets without requiring global relaxation. These results establish gradient-informed exploration as a scalable strategy for multicomponent CALPHAD optimization and provide a practical route towards efficient higher-order database development with quantified uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗