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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2022

LGM Paleoclimate Constraints Inform Cloud Parameterizations and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in CESM2

The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) simulates a high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS > 5°C) and a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) that is substantially colder than proxy temperatures. In this study, we examine the role of cloud parameterizations in simulating the LGM cooling in CESM2. Through substituting different versions of cloud schemes in the atmosphere model, we attribute the excessive LGM cooling to the new CESM2 schemes of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation. Further exploration suggests that removing an inappropriate limiter on cloud ice number (NoNimax) and decreasing the time-step size (substepping) in cloud microphysics largely eliminate the excessive LGM cooling. NoNimax produces a more physically consistent treatment of mixed-phase clouds, which leads to an increase in cloud ice content and a weaker shortwave cloud feedback over mid-to-high latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere subtropics. Microphysical substepping further weakens the shortwave cloud feedback. Based on NoNimax and microphysical substepping, we have developed a paleoclimate-calibrated CESM2 (PaleoCalibr), which simulates well the observed twentieth century warming and spatial characteristics of key cloud and climate variables. PaleoCalibr has a lower ECS (∼4°C) and a 20% weaker aerosol-cloud interaction than CESM2. PaleoCalibr represents a physically more consistent treatment of cloud microphysics than CESM2 and is a valuable tool in climate change studies, especially when a large climate forcing is involved. Our study highlights the unique value of paleoclimate constraints in informing the cloud parameterizations and ultimately the future climate projection.

equilibrium climate sensitivity↗
DOE OSTI2021

ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model

Abstract. The future retreat rate for marine-based regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest uncertainties in sea-level projections. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) aims to improve projections and quantify uncertainties by running an ensemble of ice sheet models with atmosphere and ocean forcing derived from global climate models. Here, the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) is used to run ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. Using multiple combinations of sub-ice-shelf melt parameterizations and calibrations, CISM is spun up to steady state over many millennia. During the spin-up, basal friction parameters and basin-scale thermal forcing corrections are adjusted to optimize agreement with the observed ice thickness. The model is then run forward for 550 years, from 1950–2500, applying ocean thermal forcing anomalies from six climate models. In all simulations, the ocean forcing triggers long-term retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, especially in the Filchner–Ronne and Ross sectors. Mass loss accelerates late in the 21st century and then rises steadily for several centuries without leveling off. The resulting ocean-forced sea-level rise at year 2500 varies from about 150 to 1300 mm, depending on the melt scheme and ocean forcing. Further experiments show relatively high sensitivity to the basal friction law, moderate sensitivity to grid resolution and the prescribed collapse of small ice shelves, and low sensitivity to the stress-balance approximation. The Amundsen sector exhibits threshold behavior, with modest retreat under many parameter settings but complete collapse under some combinations of low basal friction and high thermal forcing anomalies. Large uncertainties remain, as a result of parameterized sub-shelf melt rates, simplified treatments of calving and basal friction, and the lack of ice–ocean coupling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The contribution of Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, to sea-level rise through 2100 constrained by recent observations of speedup and retreat

Abstract. Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, has retreated and accelerated through the 21st century, raising concerns that it could be a significant contributor to future sea-level rise. We use a data-constrained ensemble of three-dimensional higher-order ice sheet model simulations to estimate the likely range of sea-level rise from the continued retreat of Humboldt Glacier. We first solve for basal traction using observed ice thickness, bed topography, and ice surface velocity from the year 2007 in a PDE-constrained (partial differential equation) optimization. Next, we impose calving rates to match mean observed retreat rates from winter 2007–2008 to winter 2017–2018 in a transient calibration of the exponent in the power-law basal friction relationship. We find that power-law exponents in the range of 1/7–1/5 – rather than the commonly used 1/3–1 – are necessary to reproduce the observed speedup over this period. We then tune an iceberg calving parameterization based on the von Mises stress yield criterion in another transient-calibration step to approximate both observed ice velocities and terminus position in 2017–2018. Finally, we use the range of basal friction relationship exponents and calving parameter values to generate the ensemble of model simulations from 2007–2100 under three climate forcing scenarios from CMIP5 (two RCP8.5 forcings, Representative Concentration Pathway) and CMIP6 (one SSP5-8.5 forcing, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway). Our simulations predict 5.2–8.7 mm of sea-level rise from Humboldt Glacier, significantly higher than a previous estimate (∼ 3.5 mm) and equivalent to a substantial fraction of the 40–140 mm predicted by ISMIP6 from the whole Greenland Ice Sheet. Our larger future sea-level rise prediction results from the transient calibration of our basal friction law to match the observed speedup, which requires a semi-plastic bed rheology. In many simulations, our model predicts the growth of a sizable ice shelf in the middle of the 21st century. Thus, atmospheric warming could lead to more retreat than predicted here if increased surface melt promotes hydrofracture of the ice shelf. Our data-constrained simulations of Humboldt Glacier underscore the sensitivity of model predictions of Greenland outlet glacier response to warming to choices of basal shear stress and iceberg calving parameterizations. Further, transient calibration of these parameterizations, which has not typically been performed, is necessary to reproduce observed behavior. Current estimates of future sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet could, therefore, contain significant biases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Integrated Hydroclimatic Assessment of Future Reservoir and Hydropower Operations in the U.S.

The engineering of rivers by dams is a formative feature of human-nature systems and the interconnectivity of water, energy, and the climate. Sufficient and broad-based representations of dams in large-scale hydrological models prove essential to mapping their extensive regulation of river flow and biogeochemistry and gauging climate-linked provisions, including freshwater supply and hydropower. We present an integrated modeling framework to investigate future streamflow and hydropower generation in the Contiguous U.S. (1990–2075), leveraging an ensemble of six downscaled and bias-corrected General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the high-end SSP585 scenario of the CMIP6. To achieve this, we develop a reservoir operations and parameterization scheme for 1,384 dams in a high-resolution river network, including simulated hydropower generation for 326 dams. For the GCM ensemble mean, we simulate a widespread increase in regulated streamflow into the late-century (11% annual and 17% in winter for the dam median) with region-specific changes in summer streamflow that feature prominent declines in the Northwest (−7%). Mediation by reservoirs is shown to dampen intra-annual streamflow changes, delivering additional summer releases that partially mitigate declining flows. Total hydropower generation is projected to increase modestly (+3%), with boosted generation in the winter (+9%) and spring (+5%) offsetting declined summer generation (−3.4%), suggesting strong adaptation potential for hydropower in the future energy portfolio. Further analysis reveals that the choice of GCM, particularly in western regions, has significant bearing on projected streamflow and hydropower changes.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2014

Configuration and Assessment of the GISS ModelE2 Contributions to the CMIP5 Archive

We present a description of the ModelE2 version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Model (GCM) and the configurations used in the simulations performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We use six variations related to the treatment of the atmospheric composition, the calculation of aerosol indirect effects, and ocean model component. Specifically, we test the difference between atmospheric models that have noninteractive composition, where radiatively important aerosols and ozone are prescribed from precomputed decadal averages, and interactive versions where atmospheric chemistry and aerosols are calculated given decadally varying emissions. The impact of the first aerosol indirect effect on clouds is either specified using a simple tuning, or parameterized using a cloud microphysics scheme. We also use two dynamic ocean components: the Russell and HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) which differ significantly in their basic formulations and grid. Results are presented for the climatological means over the satellite era (1980-2004) taken from transient simulations starting from the preindustrial (1850) driven by estimates of appropriate forcings over the 20th Century. Differences in base climate and variability related to the choice of ocean model are large, indicating an important structural uncertainty. The impact of interactive atmospheric composition on the climatology is relatively small except in regions such as the lower stratosphere, where ozone plays an important role, and the tropics, where aerosol changes affect the hydrological cycle and cloud cover. While key improvements over previous versions of the model are evident, these are not uniform across all metrics.

ocean model↗
NASA NTRS2017

Synergy Between Land Use and Climate Change Increases Future Fire Risk in Amazon Forests

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Le Page, Yannick↗
DOE OSTI2021

Is solid copper oxalate a spin chain or a mixture of entangled spin pairs?

Macroscopic assemblies of interacting spins give rise to a broad spectrum of behaviors determined by the spatial arrangement of the magnetic sites and the electronic interactions between them. Compounds of copper (II), in which each copper carries spin 1/2, exhibit a vast variety of physical properties. For antiferromagnetically coupled spin sites, there are two limiting scenarios: spin chains in which the spins can exhibit a long-range order or a mixture of dimers in which the spins within each pair are entangled but do not communicate with the spins from other dimers. In principle, the two types can be distinguished on the basis of experimental observations and modeling using empirically parameterized effective Hamiltonians, but in practice, ambiguity may persist for decades, as is the case for copper oxalate. Here we use high-level ab initio calculations to establish the validity of the nearest-site Heisenberg model and to predict the interaction strength between the magnetic sites. Finally, the computed magnetic susceptibility provides an unambiguous interpretation of magnetic experiments performed throughout half a century, clearly supporting the infinite spin-chain behavior of solid copper oxalate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2010

QBO Influence on Polar Stratospheric Variability in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

The quasi-biennial oscillation modulates the strength of both the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric vortices. Model and observational studies have found that the phase and characteristics of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) contribute to the high degree of variability in the Arctic stratosphere in winter. While the Antarctic stratosphere is less variable, recent work has shown that Southern Hemisphere planetary wave driving increases in response to "warm pool" El Nino events that are coincident with the easterly phase of the QBO. These events hasten the breakup of the Antarctic polar vortex. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is now capable of generating a realistic QBO, due a new parameterization of gravity wave drag. In this presentation, we will use this new model capability to assess the influence of the QBO on polar stratospheric variability. Using simulations of the recent past, we will compare the modeled relationship between QBO phase and mid-winter vortex strength with the observed Holton-Tan relation, in both hemispheres. We will use simulations of the 21 St century to estimate future trends in the relationship between QBO phase and vortex strength. In addition, we will evaluate the combined influence of the QBO and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the timing of the breakup of the polar stratospheric vortices in the GEOS CCM. We will compare the influence of these two natural phenomena with trends in the vortex breakup associated with ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Updated PSC Climatology Based on Caliop Measurements From 2006-2023

After more than three decades of research, the roles of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) in stratospheric ozone depletion are well established. Heterogeneous reactions on PSCs convert the stable chlorine reservoirs HCl and ClONO2 to chlorine radicals that destroy ozone catalytically. PSCs also prolong ozone depletion by delaying chlorine deactivation through the removal of gas-phase HNO3 and H2O by sedimentation of large nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and ice particles. A substantial recovery of the ozone layer is expected by the middle of this century with reduced global production of ozone depleting substances in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and subsequent amendments. But as climate changes, leading to a colder and perhaps wetter stratosphere and upper troposphere, reliable model predictions of recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole and of potentially more severe ozone depletion in the Arctic are challenging. This is due both to a lack of detailed understanding of the underlying physics and the fact that many global models use simple parameterizations that do not accurately represent PSC processes. A more complete picture of PSC processes on vortex-wide scales has emerged from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) instrument on the CALIPSO satellite that has been observing PSCs at latitudes up to 82 degrees in both hemispheres since June 2006. The CALIOP Version 2.0 (v2) PSC algorithm was recently developed to address known deficiencies in previous algorithms and includes additional refinements to increase the robustness of the inferred PSC composition. In this paper, we present an updated PSC reference data record and comprehensive climatology constructed by applying the v2 algorithm to the more than 17-year CALIOP spaceborne lidar dataset. In addition, we will examine the potential impact of aerosol and water vapor injections into the stratosphere from the January 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption on PSC occurrence in both the Arctic and Antarctic regions.

polar stratospheric clouds↗
NASA NTRS2000

NASA/GSFC Research Activities for the Global Ocean Carbon Cycle: A Prospectus for the 21st Century

There are increasing concerns that anthropogenic inputs of carbon dioxide into the Earth system have the potential for climate change. In response to these concerns, the GSFC Laboratory for Hydrospheric Processes has formed the Ocean Carbon Science Team (OCST) to contribute to greater understanding of the global ocean carbon cycle. The overall goals of the OCST are to: 1) detect changes in biological components of the ocean carbon cycle through remote sensing of biooptical properties, 2) refine understanding of ocean carbon uptake and sequestration through application of basic research results, new satellite algorithms, and improved model parameterizations, 3) develop and implement new sensors providing critical missing environmental information related to the oceanic carbon cycle and the flux of CO2 across the air-sea interface. The specific objectives of the OCST are to: 1) establish a 20-year time series of ocean color, 2) develop new remote sensing technologies, 3) validate ocean remote sensing observations, 4) conduct ocean carbon cycle scientific investigations directly related to remote sensing data, emphasizing physiological, empirical and coupled physical/biological models, satellite algorithm development and improvement, and analysis of satellite data sets. These research and mission objectives are intended to improve our understanding of global ocean carbon cycling and contribute to national goals by maximizing the use of remote sensing data.

Gregg, W. W.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Geodynamo Modeling of Core-Mantle Interactions

Angular momentum exchange between the Earth's mantle and core influences the Earth's rotation on time scales of decades and longer, in particular in the length of day (LOD) which have been measured with progressively increasing accuracy for the last two centuries. There are four possible coupling mechanisms for transferring the axial angular momentum across the core-mantle boundary (CMB): viscous, magnetic, topography, and gravitational torques. Here we use our scalable, modularized, fully dynamic geodynamo model for the core to assess the importance of these torques. This numerical model, as an extension of the Kuang-Bloxham model that has successfully simulated the generation of the Earth's magnetic field, is used to obtain numerical results in various physical conditions in terms of specific parameterization consistent with the dynamical processes in the fluid outer core. The results show that depending on the electrical conductivity of the lower mantle and the amplitude of the boundary topography at CMB, both magnetic and topographic couplings can contribute significantly to the angular momentum exchange. This implies that the core-mantle interactions are far more complex than has been assumed and that there is unlikely a single dominant coupling mechanism for the observed decadal LOD variation.

Kuang, Wei-Jia↗
NASA NTRS2011

Methane Sensitivity to Perturbations in Tropospheric Oxidizing Capacity

Methane is an important greenhouse gas and has a 25 times greater global warming potential than CO2 on a century timescale. Yet there are considerable uncertainties in the magnitude and variability of its sources and sinks. The response of the coupled non-linear methane-carbon monoxide-hydroxyl radical (OH) system is important in determining the tropospheric oxidizing capacity. Using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) chemistry climate model, we study the response of methane to perturbations of OH and wetland emissions. We use a computationally-efficient option of the GEOS-5 CCM that includes an OH parameterization that accurately represents OH predicted by a full chemical mechanism. The OH parameterization allows for studying non-linear CH4-CO-OH feedbacks in computationally fast sensitivity experiments. We compare our results with surface observations (GMD) and discuss the range of uncertainty in OH and wetland emissions required to bring modeling results in better agreement with surface observations. Our results can be used to improve projections of methane emissions and methane growth.

Yegorova, Elena↗
DOE OSTI2022

More Realistic Intermediate Depth Dry Firn Densification in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)

Abstract Earth system models account for seasonal snow cover, but many do not accommodate the deeper snowpack on ice sheets (aka firn) that slowly transforms to ice under accumulating snowfall. To accommodate and resolve firn depths of up to 60 m in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model's land surface model (ELM), we add 11 layers to its snowpack and evaluate three dry snow compaction equations in multi‐century simulations. After comparing results from ELM simulations (forced with atmospheric reanalysis) with empirical data, we find that implementing into ELM a two‐stage firn densification model produces more accurate dry firn densities at intermediate depths of 20–60 m. Compared to modeling firn using the equations in the (12 layer) Community Land Model (version 5), switching to the two‐stage firn densification model (with 16 layers) significantly decreases root‐mean‐square errors in upper 60 m dry firn densities by an average of 41 kg m −3 (31%). Simulations with three different firn density parameterizations show that the two‐stage firn densification model should be used for applications that prioritize accurate upper 60 m firn air content (FAC) in regions where the mean annual surface temperature is greater than roughly −31°C. Because snow metamorphism, firn density, and FAC are major components in modeling ice sheet surface albedo, melt water retention, and climatic mass balance, these developments advance broader efforts to simulate the response of land ice to atmospheric forcing in Earth system models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reconstructing atmospheric H 2 over the past century from bi-polar firn air records

Abstract. Historical atmospheric H2 levels were reconstructed using firn air measurements from two sites in Greenland (NEEM and Summit) and two sites in Antarctica (South Pole and Megadunes). A joint reconstruction based on the two Antarctic sites yields H2 levels monotonically increasing from about 330 ppb in 1900 to 550 ppb in the late 1990s, leveling off thereafter. These results are similar to individual reconstructions published previously (Patterson et al., 2020, 2021). Interpretation of the Greenland firn air measurements is complicated by challenges in modeling enrichment induced by pore close-off at these sites. We used observations of neon enrichment at NEEM and Summit to tune the parameterization of enrichment induced by pore close-off in our firn air model. The joint reconstruction from the Greenland data shows H2 levels rising 30 % between 1950 and the late 1980s, reaching a maximum of 530 ppb. After 1990, reconstructed atmospheric H2 levels over Greenland are roughly constant, with a small decline of 3 % over the next 25 years. The reconstruction shows good agreement with the available flask measurements of H2 at high northern latitudes.

Geology↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Equilibrium Response of Climate and Composition to Lightning

Climate change can affect atmospheric composition through perturbation of natural processes, leading to complex feedbacks. The primary atmospheric oxidants OH and ozone are very sensitive to emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) from lightning, and therefore so are the subsequent chemical perturbations to long-lived greenhouse gases (e.g., methane) and aerosol chemistry and physics. Meanwhile, cloud electrification responds to both meteorology and composition (aerosol particles). Key to understanding the ultimate impact of lightning on air quality and climate is the long-term methane feedback. Here, we present simulations from the GISS ModelE2.1 chemistry-climate model in which we isolate the response of Earth’s radiative budget and composition to lightning NO x in the present day and at the end of this century by allowing the model to re-equilibrate following removal of the source. Whereas lightning initially contributes to surface ozone enhancements, longer-term responses amplified by the methane lifetime feedback reduce surface ozone on multi-decadal time scales in the northern midlatitudes. Lightning consequently contributes a strong negative radiative effect in the present day (-0.5 W m -2 ), stronger than that estimated for the anthropogenic NOx source. In addition to influencing tropospheric composition, we find significant changes in stratospheric dynamics and composition. We test the sensitivity of our results to multiple parameterizations for global lightning activity.

Lightning↗
DOE OSTI2022

Intercomparison of Dynamically and Statistically Downscaled Climate Change Projections over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

Downscaling of global climate model (GCMs) simulations is a key element of regional-to-local-scale climate change projections that can inform impact assessments, long-term planning, and resource management in different sectors. Here, we conduct an intercomparison between statistically and dynamically downscaled GCMs simulations using the hybrid delta (HD) and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model, respectively, over the Midwest and Great Lakes region to 1) validate their performance in reproducing extreme daily precipitation (P) and daily maximum temperature (T max ) for summer and winter and 2) evaluate projections of extremes in the future. Our results show the HD statistical downscaling approach, which includes large-scale bias correction of GCM inputs, can reproduce observed extreme P and T max reasonably well for both summer and winter. However, raw historical WRF simulations show significant bias in both extreme P and T max for both seasons. Interestingly, the convection-permitting WRF simulation at 4-km grid spacing does not produce better results for seasonal extremes than the WRF simulation at 12 km using a parameterized convection scheme. Despite a broad similarity for winter extreme P projections, the projected changes in the future summer storms are quite different between downscaling methods; WRF simulations show substantial increases in summer extreme precipitation, while the changes projected by the HD approach exhibit moderate decreases overall. The WRF simulations at 4 km also show a pronounced decoupling effect between seasonal totals and extreme daily P for summer, which suggests that there could be more intense summer extremes at two different time scales, with more severe individual convective storms combined with longer summer droughts at the end of the twenty-first century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A GPU‐Based Ocean Dynamical Core for Routine Mesoscale‐Resolving Climate Simulations

Abstract We describe an ocean hydrostatic dynamical core implemented in Oceananigans optimized for Graphical Processing Unit (GPU) architectures. On 64 A100 GPUs, equivalent to 16 computational nodes in current state‐of‐the‐art supercomputers, our dynamical core can simulate a decade of near‐global ocean dynamics per wall‐clock day at an 8‐km horizontal resolution; a resolution adequate to resolve the ocean's mesoscale eddy field. Such efficiency, achieved with relatively modest hardware resources, suggests that climate simulations on GPUs can incorporate fully eddy‐resolving ocean models. This removes a major source of systematic bias in current IPCC coupled model projections, the parameterization of ocean eddies, and represents a major advance in climate modeling. We discuss the computational strategies, focusing on GPU‐specific optimization and numerical implementation details that enable such high performance.

Silvestri, Simone [Massachusetts Institute of Tech↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding drivers and uncertainty in projected African precipitation

We investigate the drivers of projected summer precipitation changes and their uncertainties across Africa in the second half of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios using CMIP6 models. Our results reveal distinct regional precipitation changes, particularly under SSP5-8.5, with robust increases of 75%, 24%, and 17% over the Sahara, South Eastern Africa, and South Central Africa, respectively, and a decline of up to 5% over West Southern Africa (WSAF). In most regions, precipitation increases are driven by enhanced vertical thermodynamic processes associated with temperature-induced moisture increases and enhanced moisture convergence. In contrast, the WSAF decrease is associated with vertical dynamic processes driven by a weakening of the Hadley circulation’s ascending branch. Model uncertainty accounts for over 85% of total projection uncertainty across all regions and is largely due to subgrid-scale parameterizations. Overall, this study enhances our understanding of climate change impacts on African precipitation.

Taguela, Thierry N↗