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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A Regularized Variance-Reduced Modified Extragradient Method for Stochastic Hierarchical Games

We consider an N -player hierarchical game in which the i th player’s objective comprises of an expectation-valued term, parametrized by rival decisions, and a hierarchical term. Such a framework allows for capturing a broad range of stochastic hierarchical optimization problems, Stackelberg equilibrium problems, and leader-follower games. We develop an iteratively regularized and smoothed variance-reduced modified extragradient framework for iteratively approaching hierarchical equilibria in a stochastic setting. We equip our analysis with rate statements, complexity guarantees, and almost-sure convergence results. We then extend these statements to settings where the lower-level problem is solved inexactly and provide the corresponding rate and complexity statements. Our model framework encompasses many game theoretic equilibrium problems studied in the context of power markets. We present a realistic application to the study of virtual power plants, emphasizing the role of hierarchical decision making and regularization. Preliminary numerics suggest that empirical behavior compares well with theoretical guarantees.

Tikhonov regularization↗
DOE OSTI2020

CONTROLLED END GAS AUTO IGNITION WITH EXHAUST GAS RECIRCULATION ON A STOICHIOMETRIC, SPARK IGNITED, NATURAL GAS ENGINE

The goal of this study is to address fundamental limitations to achieving diesel-like efficiencies in heavy duty on-highway natural gas (NG) engines. Engine knock and misfire are barriers to pathways leading to higher efficiency engines. This study explores enabling technologies for development of high efficiency stoichiometric, spark ignited, natural gas engines. These include design strategies for fast and stable combustion and higher dilution tolerance. Additionally, advanced control methodologies are implemented to maintain stable operation between knock and misfire limits. To implement controlled end- gas autoignition (C-EGAI) strategies a Combustion Intensity Metric (CIM) is used for ignition control with the use of a Woodward large engine control module (LECM). Tests were conducted using a single cylinder, variable compression ratio, cooperative fuel research (CFR) engine with baseline conditions of 900 RPM, engine load of 800 kPa indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP), and stoichiometric air/fuel ratio. Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) tests were performed using a custom EGR system that simulates a high pressure EGR loop and can provide a range of EGR rates from 0 to 40%. The experimental measurements included the variance of EGR rate, compression ratio, engine speed, IMEP, and CIM. These five variables were optimized through a Modified Box- Benken design Surface Response Method (RSM), with brake efficiency as the merit function. A positive linear correlation between CIM and f-EGAI was identified. Consequently, CIM was used as the feedback control parameter for C-EGAI. As such, implementation of C-EGAI effectively allowed for the utilization of high EGR rates and CRs, controlling combustion between a narrower gap between knock and lean limits. The change from fixed to parametric ignition timing with CIM targeted select values of f-EGAI with an average coefficient of variance (COV) of peak pressure of 5.4. The RSM efficiency optimization concluded with operational conditions of 1080 RPM, 1150 kPa IMEP, 10.55:1 compression ratio, and 17.8% EGR rate with a brake efficiency of 21.3%. At this optimized point of peak performance, a f-EGAI for C-EGAI was observed at 34.1% heat release due to auto ignition, a knock onset crank angle value of 10.3° aTDC and ignition timing of - 24.7° aTDC. This work has demonstrated that combustion at a fixed f-EGAI can be maintained through advanced ignition control of CIM without experiencing heavy knocking events.

Cooperative Fuel Research Engine, Auto Ignition, E↗
DOE OSTI2025

Requirements on the gain calibration for LiteBIRD polarisation data with blind component separation

The detection of primordial B modes of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) could provide information about the early stages of the Universe's evolution. The faintness of this signal requires exquisite calibration accuracy and control of instrumental systematic effects which otherwise could bias the measurements. In this work, we study the impact of an imperfect relative polarisation gain calibration on the recovered value of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r for the LiteBIRD experiment, through the application of the blind Needlet Internal Linear Combination (NILC) foreground-cleaning method. We derive requirements on the relative calibration accuracy of the overall polarisation gain (Δg ν ) for each LiteBIRD frequency channel. Our results show that minimum variance techniques, as NILC, are less sensitive to systematic gain calibration uncertainties compared to a parametric approach, if the latter is not equipped with a proper modelling of these instrumental effects. In this study, the most stringent requirements are found in the channels where the CMB signal is relatively brighter, with the tightest constraints at 166 GHz (Δg ν ≈ 0.16%). This differs from the outcome of an analogous analysis performed with a parametric method, where the tightest requirements are obtained for the foreground-dominated channels. Gain calibration uncertainties, corresponding to the derived requirements, are then simultaneously propagated into all frequency channels. By doing so, we find that the overall impact on estimated r is lower than the total gain systematic budget for LiteBIRD approximately by a factor 5, due to the correlations of the impacts of gain calibration uncertainties in different frequency channels. In order to decouple the systematic effect from the specific choice of the model, we derive the requirements assuming constant spectral parameters for the foreground emission. To assess the robustness of the obtained results against more realistic scenarios, we repeat the analysis assuming sky models of intermediate and high complexity. In these further cases, we adopt an optimised NILC pipeline, called the Multi-Clustering NILC (MC-NILC). We find that the impact of gain calibration uncertainties on r is lower than the LiteBIRD gain systematics budget for the intermediate-complexity sky model. For the high-complexity case, instead, it would be necessary to tighten the requirements by a factor 1.8.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Near-Efficient and Non-Asymptotic Multiway Inference

We establish non-asymptotic efficiency guarantees for tensor decomposition–based inference in count data models. Under a Poisson framework, we consider two related goals: (i) parametric inference , the estimation of the full distributional parameter tensor, and (ii) multiway analysis , the recovery of its canonical polyadic (CP) decomposition factors. Our main result shows that in the rank-one setting, a rank-constrained maximum-likelihood estimator achieves multiway analysis with variance matching the Cramér–Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) up to absolute constants and logarithmic factors. This provides a general framework for studying “near-efficient” multiway estimators in finite-sample settings. For higher ranks, we illustrate that our multiway estimator may not attain the CRLB; nevertheless, CP-based parametric inference remains nearly minimax optimal, with error bounds that improve on prior work by offering more favorable dependence on the CP rank. Numerical experiments corroborate near-efficiency in the rank-one case and highlight the efficiency gap in higher-rank scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Catalytic resonance theory for parametric uncertainty of programmable catalysis

Microkinetic models are useful tools for screening catalytic materials; however, errors in their input parameters can lead to significant uncertainty in model predictions of catalyst performance. Here, in this work, we investigate the impact of linear scaling and Brønsted-Evans-Polanyi relation parametric uncertainty on microkinetic predictions of programmable-catalyst performance. Two case studies are considered: a generic A-to-B prototype reaction and the oxygen evolution reaction (OER). The results show that error-unaware models can accurately predict trends and, for the prototype reaction, values of optimal waveform parameters. The specific model parameters driving output uncertainty are identified via variance-based global sensitivity analysis. However, predictions of dynamic rate enhancement can decrease when uncertainty is propagated into the models. In both cases, we identify operating conditions where the programmable catalyst achieves a rate enhancement of at least one order of magnitude despite parametric uncertainty in the model, supporting programmable catalysis as a viable strategy for exceeding the Sabatier limit.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Photovoltaic Module Materials and Design on Module Deformation Under Load

Quasi-static structural finite-element models of an aluminum-framed crystalline silicon photovoltaic module and a glass-glass thin-film module were constructed and validated against experimental measurements of deflection under uniform pressure loading. Specific practices in the computational representation of module assembly were identified as influential to matching experimental deflection observations. Additionally, parametric analyses using Latin hypercube sampling were performed to propagate input uncertainties related to module materials, dimensions, and tolerances into uncertainties in simulated deflection. Sensitivity analyses were performed on the uncertainty quantification datasets using linear correlation coefficients and variance-based sensitivity indices to elucidate key parameters influencing module deformation. Results identified edge tape and adhesive material properties as being strongly correlated to module deflection, suggesting that optimization of these materials could yield module stiffness gains at par with the conventionally structural parameters, such as glass thickness. This exercise verifies the applicability of finite-element models for accurately predicting mechanical behavior of solar modules and demonstrates a workflow for model-based parametric uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. Finally, applications of this capability include the assessment of field environment loads, derivation of representative loading conditions for reduced-scale testing, and module design optimization, among others.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Absence of Barren Plateaus and Scaling of Gradients in the Energy Optimization of Isometric Tensor Network States

Abstract Vanishing gradients can pose substantial obstacles for high-dimensional optimization problems. Here we consider energy minimization problems for quantum many-body systems with extensive Hamiltonians and finite-range interactions, which can be studied on classical computers or in the form of variational quantum eigensolvers on quantum computers. Barren plateaus correspond to scenarios where the average amplitude of the energy gradient decreases exponentially with increasing system size. This occurs, for example, for quantum neural networks and for brickwall quantum circuits when the depth increases polynomially in the system size. Here we prove that the variational optimization problems for matrix product states, tree tensor networks, and the multiscale entanglement renormalization ansatz are free of barren plateaus. The derived scaling properties for the gradient variance provide an analytical guarantee for the trainability of randomly initialized tensor network states (TNS) and motivate certain initialization schemes. In a suitable representation, unitary tensors that parametrize the TNS are sampled according to the uniform Haar measure. We employ a Riemannian formulation of the gradient based optimizations which simplifies the analytical evaluation.

Barthel, Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fisher for complements: extracting cosmology and neutrino mass from the counts-in-cells PDF

In this work, we comprehensively analyse the cosmology dependence of counts-in-cells statistics. Furthermore, we focus on the shape of the one-point probability distribution function (PDF) of the matter density field at mildly non-linear scales. Based on large-deviation statistics, we parametrize the cosmology dependence of the matter PDF in terms of the linear power spectrum, the growth factor, the spherical collapse dynamics, and the non-linear variance. We extend our formalism to include massive neutrinos, finding that the total matter PDF is highly sensitive to the total neutrino mass Mν and can disentangle it from the clustering amplitude σ 8 . Additionally, using more than a million PDFs extracted from the Quijote simulations, we determine the response of the matter PDF to changing parameters in the νΛCDM model and successfully cross-validate the theoretical model and the simulation measurements. We present the first νΛCDM Fisher forecast for the matter PDF at multiple scales and redshifts, and its combination with the matter power spectrum. We establish that the matter PDF and the matter power spectrum are highly complementary at mildly non-linear scales. The matter PDF is particularly powerful for constraining the matter density Ωm, clustering amplitude σ 8 and the total neutrino mass Mν. Adding the mildly non-linear matter PDF to the mildly non-linear matter power spectrum improves constraints on Ω m by a factor of 5 and σ 8 by a factor of 2 when considering the three lowest redshifts. In our joint analysis of the matter PDF and matter power spectrum at three redshifts, the total neutrino mass is constrained to better than 0.01 eV with a total volume of 6 (Gpc h -1 ) 3 . We discuss how density-split statistics can be used to translate those encouraging results for the matter PDF into realistic observables in galaxy surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modelling type 1 quasar colours in the era of Rubin and Euclid

We construct a parametric SED model which is able to reproduce the average observed SDSS–UKIDSS–WISE quasar colours to within one-tenth of a magnitude across a wide range of redshift (0 < z < 5) and luminosity (–22 > M i > –29). This model is shown to provide accurate predictions for the colours of known quasars which are less luminous than those used to calibrate the model parameters, and also those at higher redshifts z > 5. Using a single parameter, the model encapsulates an up-to-date understanding of the intra-population variance in the rest-frame ultraviolet and optical emission lines of luminous quasars. At fixed redshift, there are systematic changes in the average quasar colours with apparent i-band magnitude, which we find to be well explained by the contribution from the host galaxy and our parametrization of the emission-line properties. By including redshift as an additional free parameter, the model could be used to provide photometric redshifts for individual objects. For the population as a whole we find that the average emission line and host-galaxy contributions can be well described by simple functions of luminosity which account for the observed changes in the average quasar colours across 18.1 < i AB < 21.5. Finally, we use these trends to provide predictions for quasar colours at the luminosities and redshifts which will be probed by the Rubin Observatory LSST and ESA-Euclid wide survey. The model code is applicable to a wide range of upcoming photometric and spectroscopic surveys, and is made publicly available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

CMB-S4: Iterative Internal Delensing and r Constraints

Abstract The tightest constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r can only be obtained after removing a substantial fraction of the lensing B -mode sample variance. The planned Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB)-S4 experiment ( cmb-s4.org ) will remove the lensing B -mode signal internally by reconstructing the gravitational lenses from high-resolution observations. We document here a first lensing reconstruction pipeline able to achieve this optimally for arbitrary sky coverage. We make it part of a map-based framework to test CMB-S4 delensing performance and its constraining power on r , including inhomogeneous noise and two non-Gaussian Galactic polarized foreground models. The framework performs component separation of the high-resolution maps, followed by the construction of lensing B -mode templates, which are then included in a parametric small-aperture map cross-spectra-based likelihood for r . We find that the lensing reconstruction and framework achieve the expected performance, compatible with the target σ ( r ) ≃ 5 · 10 −4 in the absence of a tensor signal, after an effective removal of 92%–93% of the lensing B -mode variance, depending on the simulation set. The code for the lensing reconstruction can also be used for cross-correlation studies with large-scale structures, lensing spectrum reconstruction, cluster lensing, or other CMB lensing-related purposes. As part of our tests, we also demonstrate the joint optimal reconstruction of the lensing potential with the lensing curl potential mode at second order in the density fluctuations.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of a Novel Heat Pump Model for Estimating Economic Viability and Barriers of Heat Pumps in Dairy Applications in the United States

Heat pumps represent an important opportunity for energy savings and decarbonization. This work investigates the techno-economic performance of high-temperature heat pumps (HTHPs) for use in the U.S. dairy industry. The studied heat pump performs a 50 °C temperature lift on a waste heat stream of cleaning water and applies the upgraded heat stream to a fluid milk pasteurization process. This work involved the creation of a HTHP model that estimated the coefficient of performance (COP), internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), and payback period (PBP), and emissions saved for a heat pump replacing a natural gas boiler. Capital costs, operations, and maintenance (O&M) cost, heat pump lifetime, electricity prices, natural gas prices, and a cost of carbon were varied to perform a parametric study on the factors affecting the break-even price of HTHPs. The results show that HTHP economics are highly sensitive to COP and energy price environment, and less sensitive to capital and O&M cost variance, leading to a large scatter of positive and negative NPVs based on U.S. location. PBPs demonstrate a defined threshold, based on energy price environment, below which favorable two-to-three-year PBPs predominate. This work is focused on the U.S. dairy industry, but international application in relation to fossil vs. electricity price regimes. Heat pumps have seen wider adoption in regions with a high ratio of fossil energy to electricity prices ($/MMBTU vs. $/kWh). The U.S. has plentiful natural gas resulting in lower fossil energy prices which has reduced heat pump adoption. This paper identifies potential first mover industries for HTHP adoption and their associated price regimes even in regions with lower ratios of fossil energy to electricity prices that exist many places globally.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION,↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust implementation of generative modeling with parametrized quantum circuits

Although the performance of hybrid quantum-classical algorithms is highly dependent on the selection of the classical optimizer and the circuit ansätze, a robust and thorough assessment on-hardware of such features has been missing to date. From the optimizer perspective, the primary challenge lies in the solver’s stochastic nature, and their significant variance over the random initialization. Therefore, a robust comparison requires one to perform several training curves for each solver before one can reach conclusions about their typical performance. Since each of the training curves requires the execution of thousands of quantum circuits in the quantum computer, such a robust study remained a steep challenge for most hybrid platforms available today. In this work, we leverage on Rigetti’s Quantum Cloud Services (QCS™) to overcome this implementation barrier, and we study the on-hardware performance of the data-driven quantum circuit learning (DDQCL) for three different state-of-the-art classical solvers, and on two-different circuit ansätze associated to different entangling connectivity graphs for the same task. Additionally, we assess the gains in performance from varying circuit depths. To evaluate the typical performance associated with each of these settings in this benchmark study, we use at least five independent runs of DDQCL towards the generation of quantum generative models capable of capturing the patterns of the canonical Bars and Stripes dataset. In this experimental benchmarking, the gradient-free optimization algorithms show an outstanding performance compared to the gradient-based solver. In particular, one of them had better performance when handling the unavoidable noisy objective function to be minimized under experimental conditions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Model and Multi-Scale Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Controlling Processes of Complex Systems

An environmental model consists of multiple process level sub-models, and each sub-model represents a process that is key to the operation of the simulated system. Global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used to identify important processes for system model development and improvement. The existing methods of global sensitivity analysis only consider parametric uncertainty, and are not capable of handling model uncertainty caused by multiple process models that arise from competing hypotheses about one or more processes. To address this problem, this project develops a new method to probe model output sensitivity to competing process models by integrating model averaging methods with variance-based global sensitivity analysis to address uncertainty in process models and parameters. The new method yields three process sensitivity indices. The first one is called first-order process sensitivity index, and it is derived as a single summary measure of relative process importance. Evaluating the index is computationally expensive, because it relies in a Monte Carlo scheme that requires thousands and even millions of model executions. To reduce computational cost, this project develops a computationally efficient, quasi Monte Carlo method, and this method is presented in Chapter 2 of this report with and a numerical example for demonstration. The numerical example shows that the results of the quasi Monte Carlo method are substantially close to those of the full Monte Carlo method, but the computational cost of the quasi Monte Carlo method is only 0.7% of that of the full Monte Carlo method. The second index is called total-effect process sensitivity index, and it measures interactions between different processes. Therefore, this sensitivity index includes the first-order process sensitivity index, and can be used to identify influential processes. On the other hand, the total-effect process sensitivity index can also be used to screen non-influential processes. This is demonstrated by two numerical examples using the Sobol-G* functions and groundwater flow models that consider recharge process, geological process, and snowmelt process. The numerical examples shows that the total-effect process sensitivity index is more informative than the first-order process sensitivity. The derivation of the process sensitivity index and the numerical examples are discussed in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 presents two computationally efficient methods for screening non-influential processes to exclude them from further investigation. The two methods are the multi-model difference-based sensitivity (MMDS) analysis method, which can be implemented using the Latin Hypercube Sampling. The second one is the implementation of MMDS method using a binning method. The numerical example for the Sobol-G* function indicates the two methods are capable of identifying non-influential models, and the numerical examples for the groundwater flow and reactive transport show that the two methods are effective for groundwater problems. However, it should be noted that the two methods are numerical approximations, and they can only be used for screening non-influential processes, not for ranking importance of system processes. All the sensitivity analysis methods are implemented by developing python codes, and the codes are in a software called SAMMPY: a python package for process sensitivity analysis under multiple models. The SAMMPY design and structure are discussed in Chapter 5, and the package is released to the public for free download.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

In-Home Mobility Frequency and Stability in Older Adults Living Alone With or Without MCI: Introduction of New Metrics

Background: Older adults spend a considerable amount of time inside their residences; however, most research investigates out-of-home mobility and its health correlates. We measured indoor mobility using room-to-room transitions, tested their psychometric properties, and correlated indoor mobility with cognitive and functional status. Materials and Methods: Community-dwelling older adults living alone ( n = 139; age = 78.1 ± 8.6 years) from the Oregon Center for Aging & Technology (ORCATECH) and Minority Aging Research Study (MARS) were included in the study. Two indoor mobility features were developed using non-parametric parameters (frequency; stability): Indoor mobility frequency (room-to-room transitions/day) was detected using passive infrared (PIR) motion sensors fixed on the walls in four geographic locations (bathroom; bedroom; kitchen; living room) and using door contact sensors attached to the egress door in the entrance. Indoor mobility stability was estimated by variances of number of room-to-room transitions over a week. Test-retest reliability (Intra-class coefficient, ICC) and the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) defined as the standard error of measurement (SEM) were generated. Generalized estimating equations models related mobility features with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and functional status (gait speed). Results: An average of 206 days (±127) of sensor data were analyzed per individual. Indoor mobility frequency and stability showed good to excellent test-retest reliability (ICCs = 0.91[0.88–0.94]; 0.59[0.48–0.70]). The MCIDs of mobility frequency and mobility stability were 18 and 0.09, respectively. On average, a higher indoor mobility frequency was associated with faster gait speed (β = 0.53, p = 0.04), suggesting an increase of 5.3 room-to-room transitions per day was associated with an increase of 10 cm/s gait speed. A decrease in mobility stability was associated with MCI (β = −0.04, p = 0.03). Discussion: Mobility frequency and stability in the home are clinically meaningful and reliable features. Pervasive-sensing systems deployed in homes can objectively reveal cognitive and functional status in older adults who live alone.

Wu, Chao-Yi↗
DOE OSTI2024

A principle of maximum ignorance for semiclassical gravity

The principle of maximum ignorance posits that the coarse-grained description of a system is maximally agnostic about its underlying microscopic structure. We briefly review this principle for random matrix theory and for the eigenstate thermalization hypothesis. We then apply this principle in holography to construct ensembles of random mixed states. This leads to an ensemble of microstates which models our microscopic ignorance, and which on average reproduces the effective semiclassical physics of a given bulk state. We call this ensemble the state-averaging ansatz. The output of our model is a prediction for semiclassical contributions to variances and higher statistical moments over the ensemble of microstates. The statistical moments provide coarse-grained — yet gravitationally non-perturbative — information about the microstructure of the individual states of the ensemble. We show that these contributions exactly match the on-shell action of known wormhole configurations of the gravitational path integral. These results strengthen the view that wormholes simply parametrize the ignorance of the microstructure of a fundamental state, given a fixed semiclassical bulk description.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

A new multi-model absolute difference-based sensitivity (MMADS) analysis method to screen non-influential processes under process model and parametric uncertainty

Process-based models have been widely used for hydrologic modeling, and it is a common practice to use sensitivity analysis methods for excluding non-influential hydrologic processes from further investigation and/or model improvement. This study develops a new method called multi-model absolute difference-based sensitivity (MMADS) analysis method to screen non-influential system processes and parameters. MMADS is conceptually similar to the Morris method for addressing parametric uncertainty, but has a unique feature to address both process model uncertainty (i.e., a process may be represented by multiple process models) and process model parameter uncertainty (i.e., parameters associated with a process model are random). MMADS first evaluates absolute differences of a quantity of interest (i.e., a system model output) by varying process models and/or process model parameter values, and then calculates the mean and variance of the differences for investigating process influence. The mean measures overall influence of the process on the quantity of interest, and the variance estimates influence of nonlinear effects of the process and/or its interactions with other processes. MMADS is an extension of the Morris method from a parameter space to a joint parameter-model space for explicitly addressing both process model uncertainty and model parameter uncertainty. The performance of MMADS is evaluated by using two numerical experiments. One experiment is based on Sobol’s G*-function with ten product elements, and has analytical solutions of the MMADS mean and variance of absolute differences. The other experiment is for groundwater flow modeling which considers three processes (i.e., recharge, geology, and snowmelt) that interact with each other. Finally, results indicate that MMADS is computationally efficient and can identify non-influential processes of complex hydrological systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Subseasonal Tropical Convection Characteristics in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 2

Accurate simulation of subseasonal tropical moist convection remains a key challenge for Earth system models. The difficulties stem from the reliance of cumulus cloud processes on model parameterizations and the need to represent the multiscale nature of interactions among clouds, radiation, moisture, circulation, and surface energy fluxes. Equatorial convection drives circulation anomalies that can affect weather patterns and extremes globally, motivating efforts to better understand and simulate these tropical disturbances. Here, a detailed review of subseasonal tropical convective behavior as simulated in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) is presented, with comparison to its predecessor version 1 (E3SMv1) and reference data sets. Model structural changes to the deep convective trigger function and surface fluxes, along with parametric tuning of the cloud and microphysics schemes, together result in an improved depiction of organized tropical convection across scales. In particular, E3SMv2 exhibits a more realistic Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) and low‐frequency Kelvin waves—owing to a sharper time mean equatorial meridional moisture gradient and improved convection‐circulation coupling —as well as a better depiction of MJO Northern Hemisphere teleconnections. Despite these improvements, subseasonal precipitation variance continues to be strongly underestimated in E3SMv2. Use of a cloud plume model also reveals that the coupling between daily averaged tropical precipitation and lower tropospheric instability in E3SM is inconsistent with observations, a bias that could potentially impact the simulation of intraseasonal disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Polynomial Chaos Surrogate Construction for Random Fields with Parametric Uncertainty

Engineering and applied science rely on computational experiments to rigorously study physical systems. The mathematical models used to probe these systems are highly complex, and sampling-intensive studies often require prohibitively many simulations for acceptable accuracy. Surrogate models provide a means of circumventing the high computational expense of sampling such complex models. In particular, polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been successfully used for uncertainty quantification studies of deterministic models where the dominant source of uncertainty is parametric. We discuss an extension to conventional PCE surrogate modeling to enable surrogate construction for stochastic computational models that have intrinsic noise in addition to parametric uncertainty. We develop a PCE surrogate on a joint space of intrinsic and parametric uncertainty, enabled by Rosenblatt transformations, which are evaluated via kernel density estimation of the associated conditional cumulative distributions. Furthermore, we extend the construction to random field data via the Karhunen–Loève expansion. We then take advantage of closed-form solutions for computing PCE Sobol indices to perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model which quantifies the intrinsic noise contribution to the overall model output variance. Additionally, the resulting joint PCE is generative in the sense that it allows generating random realizations at any input parameter setting that are statistically approximately equivalent to realizations from the underlying stochastic model. The method is demonstrated on a chemical catalysis example model and a synthetic example controlled by a parameter that enables a switch from unimodal to bimodal response distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗