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NASA NTRS2024

Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)

This Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) summarises the state of knowledge of climate change, its widespread impacts and risks, and climate change mitigation and adaptation, based on the peer-reviewed scientific, technical and socio-economic literature since the publication of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. he assessment is undertaken within the context of the evolving international landscape, in particular, developments in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process, including the outcomes of the Kyoto Protocol and the adoption of the Paris Agreement. It reflects the increasing diversity of those involved in climate action. This report integrates the main findings of the AR6 Working Group reports and the three AR6 Special Reports. It recognizes the interdependence of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies; the value of diverse forms of knowledge; and the close linkages between climate change adaptation, mitigation, ecosystem health, human well-being and sustainable development. Building on multiple analytical frameworks, including those from the physical and social sciences, this report identifies opportunities for transformative action which are effective, feasible, just and equitable using concepts of systems transitions and resilient development pathways. Different regional classification schemes4 are used for physical, social and economic aspects, reflecting the underlying literature.

climate impacts↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Suite of High-Resolution Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Simulations in Support of the OCO-3 Snapshot Area Mapping (SAM) Mode Observation: PSU-WRF, CSU-OLAM and NASA GEOS

Cities and power plants are responsible more than 70% of GHG emissions. The emissions from the subnational localized sources need to be accurately quantified and properly managed in order to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goals. The accurate estimation of these emission is also crucial for assessing the capacity of natural sinks to uptake the carbon released into the atmosphere that ultimately defines our emission allowance for the 1.5 or 2.0 degree temperature goals. New data collected by the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 3 (OCO-3) Snapshot Area Mapping (SAM) observations should provide a tremendous new opportunity for us to study CO2 emissions from targeted large localized sources, such as cities, power plants and beyond. Since 2018 (prior to the OCO-3 launch), we have studied the observational strategies for the SAM mode observation in order to collect the useful data for estimating CO2 emissions from target sources. To maximize the benefit of the SAM mode observation data for quantifying CO2 emission, it is important to define how to observe the localized sources depending on the local environmental and emission specificities. We employ a suite of state-of-the-art CO2 modeling systems, such as PSU's WRF-CO2, CSU's OLAM and NASA's GEOS models. All of these CO2 modeling systems are prescribedwith the high-resolution fuel CO2 emission estimates from the ODIAC data product to achieve realistic urban CO2 variations. We focus on cities with established ground-based observation networks, such as Los Angeles, Indianapolis, and Paris. We have examined the urban emission signal detectability in response to the influence of local background conditions that can observed by the SAM and biospheric contributions that will be a new challenge for urban emission inverse estimation. Based on the results of our simulation experiments, we plan to propose city-specific observation strategies. Upon the availability of the OCO-3 data, we will attempt to estimate city emissions using inverse models. We also developed synthetic OCO-3 data using NASA's GEOS5 model, which should be useful to assess the utility of the OCO-3 data in combination with data collected by carbon satellites in other orbits, such as NASA's OCO-2 and Japanese GOSAT-1/2. The synthetic data also provide an opportunity to study the errors due to clouds and aerosols, which have been not fully studied in the past.

Oda, Tomohiro↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-29139-DND

The Arctic has been warming at a rate outpacing globally-averaged warming by 2-3 times, a phenomenon known as "Arctic Amplification" (AA). AA is evident in observations of Arctic surface temperature over the last century as well as in model predictions. The accuracy of model predictions is crucial to determine our response to climate change, as Arctic changes have consequences for the atmospheric circulation, sea level rise, and the carbon cycle. Unfortunately, models show a wide range of possible futures and intermodel spread in projections of Arctic temperature is larger than for any other region: a 2°C global temperature increase- the limit set by the Paris Climate Agreement- would lead to an Arctic temperature change between 3-7°C according to Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 (CMIP5) models. This intermodel spread represents a key deficiency in the understanding of Arctic feedback processes and how changes in various physical parameters (e.g. sea ice cover, clouds, heat transport and surface fluxes) affect the temperature response. Using a process-oriented decomposition of the simulate Arctic surface energy budget, we attribute the largest contribution to the CMIP5 intermodel spead in projected Arctic warming to the Barents-Kara Sea region. Our results reveal that the increasing seasonal fluxing of ocean heat content is a significant part of the intermodel spread in AA and relates strongly to change in surface turbulent fluxes. Our results indicate that if we are to significantly reduce the intermodel spread in projected AA we must focus on understanding the behavior and physical processes that drive surface energy flows in the B-K sea region.

Patrick Taylor↗
NASA NTRS2021

Context and future directions for integrating forest carbon into sub-national climate mitigation planning in the RGGI region of the U.S.

International frameworks for climate mitigation that build from national actions have been developed under the United National Framework Convention on Climate Change and advanced most recently through the Paris Climate Agreement. In parallel, sub-national actors have set greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goals and developed corresponding climate mitigation plans. Within the U.S., multi-state coalitions have formed to facilitate coordination of related science and policy. Here, utilizing the forum of the NASA Carbon Monitoring System’s Multi-State Working Group, we collected and reviewed climate mitigation plans for 11 states in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative region of the Eastern U.S. For each state we reviewed the (a) policy framework for climate mitigation, (b) GHG reduction goals, (c) inclusion of forest activities in the state’s climate action plan, (d) existing science used to quantify forest carbon estimates, and (e) stated needs for forest carbon monitoring science. Across the region, we found important differences across all categories. While all states have GHG reduction goals and framework documents, nearly three-quarters of all states do not account for forest carbon when planning GHG reductions; those that do account for forest carbon use a variety of scientific methods with various levels of planning detail and guidance. We suggest that a common, efficient, standardized forest carbon monitoring system would provide important benefits to states and the geographic region as a whole. In addition, such a system would allow for more effective transparency and progress tracking to support state, national, and international efforts to increase ambition and implementation of climate goals.

Rachel L Lamb↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of Delamination Onset and Growth Characterization Methods under Mode I Fatigue Loading

Double-cantilevered beam specimens of IM7/8552 graphite/epoxy from two different manufacturers were tested in static and fatigue to compare the material characterization data and to evaluate a proposed ASTM standard for generating Paris Law equations for delamination growth. Static results were used to generate compliance calibration constants for reducing the fatigue data, and a delamination resistance curve, GIR, for each material. Specimens were tested in fatigue at different initial cyclic GImax levels to determine a delamination onset curve and the delamination growth rate. The delamination onset curve equations were similar for the two sources. Delamination growth rate was calculated by plotting da/dN versus GImax on a log-log scale and fitting a Paris Law. Two different data reduction methods were used to calculate da/dN. To determine the effects of fiber-bridging, growth results were normalized by the delamination resistance curves. Paris Law exponents decreased by 31% to 37% after normalizing the data. Visual data records from the fatigue tests were used to calculate individual compliance constants from the fatigue data. The resulting da/dN versus GImax plots showed improved repeatability for each source, compared to using averaged static data. The Paris Law expressions for the two sources showed the closest agreement using the individually fit compliance data.

Murri, Gretchen B.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Implementing Marine Organic Aerosols Into the GEOS-Chem Model

Marine-sourced organic aerosols (MOA) have been shown to play an important role in tropospheric chemistry by impacting surface mass, cloud condensation nuclei, and ice nuclei concentrations over remote marine and coastal regions. In this work, an online marine primary organic aerosol emission parameterization, designed to be used for both global and regional models, was implemented into the GEOS-Chem model. The implemented emission scheme improved the large under-prediction of organic aerosol concentrations in clean marine regions (normalized mean bias decreases from -79% when using the default settings to -12% when marine organic aerosols are added). Model predictions were also in good agreement (correlation coefficient of 0.62 and normalized mean bias of -36%) with hourly surface concentrations of MOA observed during the summertime at an inland site near Paris, France. Our study shows that MOA have weaker coastal-to-inland concentration gradients than sea-salt aerosols, leading to several inland European cities having > 10% of their surface submicron organic aerosol mass concentration with a marine source. The addition of MOA tracers to GEOS-Chem enabled us to identify the regions with large contributions of freshly-emitted or aged aerosol having distinct physicochemical properties, potentially indicating optimal locations for future field studies.

Aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2001

Fatigue Life Methodology for Bonded Composite Skin/Stringer Configurations

A methodology is presented for determining the fatigue life of composite structures based on fatigue characterization data and geometric nonlinear finite element (FE) analyses. To demonstrate the approach, predicted results were compared to fatigue tests performed on specimens which represented a tapered composite flange bonded onto a composite skin. In a first step, tension tests were performed to evaluate the debonding mechanisms between the flange and the skin. In a second step, a 2D FE model was developed to analyze the tests. To predict matrix cracking onset, the relationship between the tension load and the maximum principal stresses transverse to the fiber direction was determined through FE analysis. Transverse tension fatigue life data were used to -enerate an onset fatigue life P-N curve for matrix cracking. The resulting prediction was in good agreement with data from the fatigue tests. In a third step, a fracture mechanics approach based on FE analysis was used to determine the relationship between the tension load and the critical energy release rate. Mixed mode energy release rate fatigue life data were used to create a fatigue life onset G-N curve for delamination. The resulting prediction was in good agreement with data from the fatigue tests. Further, the prediction curve for cumulative life to failure was generated from the previous onset fatigue life curves. The results showed that the methodology offers a significant potential to Predict cumulative fatigue life of composite structures.

Krueger, Ronald↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Computational Assessment of the Opening Mode Facesheet-to-Core Fracture Toughness of a Thin-Gage Facesheet Sandwich Structure

The single-cantilevered beam test (SCB) is currently being considered for standardization for measuring the opening mode fracture toughness of sandwich structures subjected to facesheet-to-core separation. At present, the Area method is considered the benchmark method for determining energy required to propagate the crack. This method is problematic since it requires periodic unloading and cannot be evaluated instantaneously. Therefore, a method is needed to accurately and instantaneously calculate opening mode fracture toughness. In previous work, SCB tests with thin-gauge facesheets were performed to compare the J-integral approach to data reduction methods including the Modified Beam Theory (MBT) and the Area method. Large deviations (over 10%) in the calculated fracture toughness were observed between the J-integral and MBT for large displacements. In this study, a simulated SCB experiment using a virtual crackclosure technique was performed to assess the previously observed discrepancies. The predicted load displacement response, the predicted angle at the load application point, and the predicted crack growth results are in good agreement (within 5%) with the corresponding experimental data. Using the predicted load and angles, the predicted J-integral is in good agreement (within 10%) with the experimentally obtained solution. Using the MBT approach, the previously observed deviations in the fracture toughness were determined to be associated with the empirical extrapolation procedure to estimate the crack-root rotation correction from nonlinear compliance curves. The nonlinear compliance is determined to be associated with large displacement effects observed within the predicted and experimental results.

Sandwich Composite↗
NASA NTRS2006

Quantitative Assessment of Fatigue Damage Accumulation in Wavy Slip Metals from Acoustic Harmonic Generation

A comprehensive, analytical treatment is presented of the microelastic-plastic nonlinearities resulting from the interaction of a stress perturbation with dislocation substructures (veins and persistent slip bands) and cracks that evolve during high-cycle fatigue of wavy slip metals. The nonlinear interaction is quantified by a material (acoustic) nonlinearity parameter beta extracted from acoustic harmonic generation measurements. The contribution to beta from the substructures is obtained from the analysis of Cantrell [Cantrell, J. H., 2004, Proc. R. Soc. London A, 460, 757]. The contribution to beta from cracks is obtained by applying the Paris law for crack propagation to the Nazarov-Sutin crack nonlinearity equation [Nazarov, V. E., and Sutin, A. M., 1997, J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 102, 3349]. The nonlinearity parameter resulting from the two contributions is predicted to increase monotonically by hundreds of percent during fatigue from the virgin state to fracture. The increase in beta during the first 80-90 percent of fatigue life is dominated by the evolution of dislocation substructures, while the last 10-20 percent is dominated by crack growth. The model is applied to the fatigue of aluminium alloy 2024-T4 in stress-controlled loading at 276MPa for which experimental data are reported. The agreement between theory and experiment is excellent.

Cantrell, John H.↗
NASA NTRS2000

SeaWIFS Postlaunch Technical Report Series: The SeaWiFS Photometer Revision for Incident Surface Measurement (SeaPRISM) Field Commissioning - Volume 13

This report documents the scientific activities that took place at the Acqua Alta Oceanographic Tower (AAOT) in the northern Adriatic Sea off the coast of Italy from 2-6 August 1999. The ultimate objective of the field campaign was to evaluate the capabilities of a new instrument called the SeaWiFS Photometer Revision for Incident Surface Measurements (SeaPRISM). SeaPRISM is based on a CE-318 sun photometer made by CIMEL Electronique (Paris, France). The CE-318 is an automated, robotic system which measures the direct sun irradiance plus the sky radiance in the sun plane and in the almucantar plane. The data are transmitted over a satellite link, and this remote operation capability has made the device very useful for atmospheric measurements. The revision to the CE-318 that makes the instrument potentially useful for SeaWiFS calibration and validation activities is to include a capability for measuring the radiance leaving the sea surface in wavelengths suitable for the determination of chlorophyll a concentration. The initial evaluation of this new capability involved above- and in-water measurement protocols. An intercomparison of the water-leaving radiances derived from SeaPRISM and an in-water system showed the overall spectral agreement was approximately 8.6%, but the blue-green channels intercompared at the 5% level. A blue-green band ratio comparison was at the 4% level.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Comparison of 2D Finite Element Modeling Assumptions with Results From 3D Analysis for Composite Skin-Stiffener Debonding

The influence of two-dimensional finite element modeling assumptions on the debonding prediction for skin-stiffener specimens was investigated. Geometrically nonlinear finite element analyses using two-dimensional plane-stress and plane-strain elements as well as three different generalized plane strain type approaches were performed. The computed skin and flange strains, transverse tensile stresses and energy release rates were compared to results obtained from three-dimensional simulations. The study showed that for strains and energy release rate computations the generalized plane strain assumptions yielded results closest to the full three-dimensional analysis. For computed transverse tensile stresses the plane stress assumption gave the best agreement. Based on this study it is recommended that results from plane stress and plane strain models be used as upper and lower bounds. The results from generalized plane strain models fall between the results obtained from plane stress and plane strain models. Two-dimensional models may also be used to qualitatively evaluate the stress distribution in a ply and the variation of energy release rates and mixed mode ratios with delamination length. For more accurate predictions, however, a three-dimensional analysis is required.

Krueger, Ronald↗
NASA NTRS2016

In Search of a Time Efficient Approach to Crack and Delamination Growth Predictions in Composites

Analysis benchmarking was used to assess the accuracy and time efficiency of algorithms suitable for automated delamination growth analysis. First, the Floating Node Method (FNM) was introduced and its combination with a simple exponential growth law (Paris Law) and Virtual Crack Closure technique (VCCT) was discussed. Implementation of the method into a user element (UEL) in Abaqus/Standard(Registered TradeMark) was also presented. For the assessment of growth prediction capabilities, an existing benchmark case based on the Double Cantilever Beam (DCB) specimen was briefly summarized. Additionally, the development of new benchmark cases based on the Mixed-Mode Bending (MMB) specimen to assess the growth prediction capabilities under mixed-mode I/II conditions was discussed in detail. A comparison was presented, in which the benchmark cases were used to assess the existing low-cycle fatigue analysis tool in Abaqus/Standard(Registered TradeMark) in comparison to the FNM-VCCT fatigue growth analysis implementation. The low-cycle fatigue analysis tool in Abaqus/Standard(Registered TradeMark) was able to yield results that were in good agreement with the DCB benchmark example. Results for the MMB benchmark cases, however, only captured the trend correctly. The user element (FNM-VCCT) always yielded results that were in excellent agreement with all benchmark cases, at a fraction of the analysis time. The ability to assess the implementation of two methods in one finite element code illustrated the value of establishing benchmark solutions.

Krueger, Ronald↗