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NASA NTRS2018

Using Machine-Learning Methods and Expert Prediction Probabilities to Forecast Solar Flares

It has long been known that studying connection between solar flares and properties of magnetic field in active regions is very important for understanding the flare physics and developing space weather forecasts. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO/HMI) obtains tremendous amounts of magnetic field data products. However the operational NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasts of solar flares still represent prediction probabilities issued by the experts. In this research we investigate the possibilities to enhance the daily operational flare forecasts performed at the SWPC by developing a synergy of the expert predictions and physics-based criteria, and by employing machine-learning methods. Among the physics-based criteria we consider the descriptors of the Polarity Inversion Line (PIL) and Space weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP), and derive from them daily characteristics of the entire Sun. We also consider the daily descriptors of the GOES Soft X-Ray (SXR) 1-8 Angstroms flux such as the flare history of the previous days and averaged X-Ray flux. We estimate the effectiveness in separation of flaring and non-flaring cases for each characteristic, as well as for the expert prediction probabilities, and find that some PIL, SHARP and SXR descriptors are as effective as the expert prediction probabilities and should be considered to issue the flare forecast. Finally, we train and test several Machine-Learning classification algorithms (Support Vector Classifiers with various kernel functions, k-Nearest Neighbor Classifier, Random Forest Classifier, and Neural Networks) using the most effective descriptors and expert prediction probabilities, and compare the obtained predictions with the current SWPC forecasts.

Machine-Learning↗

NASA NTRS2000

BOREAS TE-9 In Situ Understory Spectral Reflectance Within the NSA

The Boreal Ecosystem-Atmospheric Study (BOREAS) TE-9 (Terrestrial Ecology) team collected several data sets related to chemical and photosynthetic properties of leaves in boreal forest tree species. Spectral reflection coefficients of the forest understory at the ground level, in three boreal forest sites of Northern Manitoba (56 N latitude and 98 W longitude), were obtained and analyzed in 1994. In particular, angular variation of the reflection coefficients in the old jack pine and young jack pine forests, as well as nadir reflection coefficient in the young aspen forest, were investigated. The complexity of understory composition and the light patterns limited quantitative conclusions; however, a number of interesting trends in the behavior of the measured values can be inferred. In particular, the unique spectral profiles of lichens show very strongly in the old jack pine understory, yet are definitely less conspicuous for young jack pine, and virtually absent in the aspen forest. The angular variation of the reflection coefficient by the young pine understory seems to be significantly toned down by fine-structured branches and their shadows. Our study also indicates how difficult the ground reflection coefficient problem in a forest is, compared to certain previously investigated areas that have a more uniform appearance, such as prairie grassland, bare soil, or agricultural crops. This is due to several factors, generally typical of a forest environment, that may influence the overall understory reflection coefficient, including: (1) a strong diversity of the forest floor due to the presence of dead tree trunks, holes in the ground, patches of different types of vegetation or litter, etc.; (2) pronounced 3-D structures at the ground level, such as shrubs, bushes, and young trees; and (3) an irregular shadow mosaic, which not only varies with the time of the day, causing intensity variations, but likely also effectively modifies the spectrum of the illuminating light and hence the reflection coefficient signal as well The data are stored in tabular ASCII files. The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884), or from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC).

Hall, Forrest G.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Active modes of the Pacific ITCZ

ITCZ intensity across the Pacific for the 1975-1976 season is studied. Analysis of the data reveal: zonal bands of convective development; isolated patches of stronger convection; and several zonal bands which merge as tropical intraseasonal oscillations. The ITCZ intensity at 160 deg W is compared with the intensity averaged all the way across the Pacific. Composite outgoing longwave radiation anomaly maps for 22 days of local active ITCZ at 160 deg W, 26 days of zonally averaged active ITCZ, and 16 days of both local and zonal active ITCZ are presented and examined. It is noted that: systematic, yet different, patterns, movement, and temporal behavior correspond to local and zonally extensive convection; intensifying zonal convection moves southward; local convection occurs at two preferential latitudes; and local convection does not mean there is a generally active ITCZ.

Hayes, P. M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Advanced Solar-propelled Cargo Spacecraft for Mars Missions

Three concepts for an unmanned, solar powered, cargo spacecraft for Mars support missions were investigated. These spacecraft are designed to carry a 50,000 kg payload from a low Earth orbit to a low Mars orbit. Each design uses a distinctly different propulsion system: A Solar Radiation Absorption (SRA) system, a Solar-Pumped Laser (SPL) system and a solar powered magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD) arc system. The SRA directly converts solar energy to thermal energy in the propellant through a novel process. In the SPL system, a pair of solar-pumped, multi-megawatt, CO2 lasers in sunsynchronous Earth orbit converts solar energy to laser energy. The MPD system used indium phosphide solar cells to convert sunlight to electricity, which powers the propulsion system. Various orbital transfer options are examined for these concepts. In the SRA system, the mother ship transfers the payload into a very high Earth orbit and a small auxiliary propulsion system boosts the payload into a Hohmann transfer to Mars. The SPL spacecraft and the SPL powered spacecraft return to Earth for subsequent missions. The MPD propelled spacecraft, however, remains at Mars as an orbiting space station. A patched conic approximation was used to determine a heliocentric interplanetary transfer orbit for the MPD propelled spacecraft. All three solar-powered spacecraft use an aerobrake procedure to place the payload into a low Mars parking orbit. The payload delivery times range from 160 days to 873 days (2.39 years).

Auziasdeturenne, Jacqueline↗

NASA NTRS1989

Advanced solar-propelled cargo spacecraft for Mars missions

At the University of Washington, three concepts for an unmanned, solar powered, cargo spacecraft for Mars-support missions have been investigated. These spacecraft are designed to carry a 50,000 kg payload from a low Earth orbit to a low Mars orbit. Each design uses a distinctly different propulsion system: a solar radiation absorption (SRA) system, a solar-pumped laser (SPL) system, and a solar powered mangetoplasmadynamic (MPD) arc system. The SRA directly converts solar energy to thermal energy in the propellant through a novel process developed at the University of Washington. A solar concentrator focuses sunlight into an absorption chamber. A mixture of hydrogen and potassium vapor absorbs the incident radiation and is heated to approximately 3700 K. The hot propellant gas exhausts through a nozzle to produce thrust. The SRA has an I(sub sp) of approximately 1000 sec and produces a thrust of 2940 N using two thrust chambers. In the SPL system, a pair of solar-pumped, multi-megawatt, CO2 lasers in sun-synchronous Earth orbit converts solar energy to laser energy. The laser beams are transmitted to the spacecraft via laser relay satellites. The laser energy heats the hydrogen propellant through a plasma breakdown process in the center of an absorption chamber. Propellant flowing through the chamber, heated by the plasma core, expands through a nozzle to produce thrust. The SPL has an I(sub sp) of 1285 sec and produces a thrust of 1200 N using two thrust chambers. The MPD system uses indium phosphide solar cells to convert sunlight to electricity, which powers the propulsion system. In this system, the argon propellant is ionized and electromagnetically accelerated by a magnetoplasmadynamic arc to produce thrust. The MPD spacecraft has an I(sub sp) of 2490 sec and produces a thrust of 100 N. Various orbital transfer options are examined for these concepts. In the SRA system, the mother ship transfers the payload into a very high Earth orbit and a small auxiliary propulsion system boosts the payload into a Hohmann transfer to Mars. The SPL spacecraft releases the payload as the spacecraft passes by Mars. Both the SRA-powered spacecraft and the SPL-powered spacecraft return to Earth for subsequent missions. The MPD-propelled spacecraft, however, remains at Mars as an orbiting space station. A patched conic approximation was used to determine a heliocentric interplanetary transfer orbit for the MPD propelled spacecraft. All three solar-powered spacecraft use an aerobrake procedure to place the payload into a low Mars parking orbit. The payload delivery times range from 160 days to 873 days (2.39 years).

Auziasdeturenne, J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

High resolution cloud feature tracking on Venus by Galileo

The Venus cloud deck was monitored in February 1990 for 16 hours at 400 nanometers wavelength by the Galileo imaging system, with a spatial resolution of about 15 km and with image time separations as small as 10 minutes. Velocities are deduced by following the motion of small cloud features. In spite of the high temporal frequence is capable of being detected, no dynamical phenomena are apparent in the velocity data except the already well-known solar tides, possibly altered by the slow 4-day wave and the Hadley circulation. There is no evidence, to a level of approximately 4 m/s, of eddy or wavelike activity. The dominant size of sub-global scale albedo features is 200-500 km, and their contrast is approximately 5%. At low altitudes there are patches of blotchy, cell-like structures but at most locations the markings are streaky. The patterns are similar to those discovered by Mariner 10 and Pioneer Venus (M. J. S. Belton et al., 1976, W. B. Rossow et al., 1980). Scaling arguments are presented to argue that the mesoscale blotchy cell-like cloud patterns are caused by local dynamics driven in a shallow layer by differential absorption of sunlight. It is also argued that mesoscale albedo features are either streaky or cell-like simply depending on whether the horizontal shear of the large scale flow exceeds a certain critical value.

Toigo, Anthony↗

NASA NTRS1994

Time scales of pattern evolution from cross-spectrum analysis of advanced very high resolution radiometer and coastal zone color scanner imagery

We have selected square subareas (110 km on a side) from coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) and advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) images for 1981 in the California Current region off northern California for which we could identify sequences of cloud-free data over periods of days to weeks. We applied a two-dimensional fast Fourier transformation to images after median filtering, (x, y) plane removal, and cosine tapering. We formed autospectra and coherence spectra as functions of a scalar wavenumber. Coherence estimates between pairs of images were plotted against time separation between images for several wide wavenumber bands to provide a temporal lagged coherence function. The temporal rate of loss of correlation (decorrelation time scale) in surface patterns provides a measure of the rate of pattern change or evolution as a function of spatial dimension. We found that patterns evolved (or lost correlation) approximately twice as rapidly in upwelling jets as in the 'quieter' regions between jets. The rapid evolution of pigment patterns (lifetime of about 1 week or less for scales of 50-100 km) ought to hinder biomass transfer to zooplankton predators compared with phytoplankton patches that persist for longer times. We found no significant differences between the statistics of CZCS and AVHRR images (spectral shape or rate of decorrelation). In addition, in two of the three areas studied, the peak correlation between AVHRR and CZCS images from the same area occurred at zero lag, indicating that the patterns evolved simutaneously. In the third area, maximum coherence between thermal and pigment patterns occurred when pigment images lagged thermal images by 1-2 days, mirroring the expected lag of high pigment behind low temperatures (and high nutrients) in recently upwelled water. We conclude that in dynamic areas such as coastal upwelling systems, the phytoplankton cells (identified by pigment color patterns) behave largely as passive scalars at the mesoscale and that growth, death, and sinking of phytoplankton collectively play at most a mariginal role in determining the spectral statistics of the pigment patterns.

Denman, Kenneth L.↗

NASA NTRS1983

A two-dimensional model of the ionosphere of Venus

While most orbits of the Pioneer Venus Orbiter have indicated a substantial nightside ionosphere, this region virtually disappears, existing only as irregular patches of low density plasma, on those orbits during which the solar wind dynamic pressure is large. There observational results are presently interpreted by means of a two-dimensional theoretical model of the Venus ionosphere in which empirical horizontal velocities are adopted. The degree to which the horizontal transport of ions from day to night can maintain the nightside ionosphere is shown to depend on the flow velocities, together with the ionopause height at the terminator. Attention is also given to the role played by electron precipitation in the support of a nightside ionosphere. Indirect evidence is given for an enhanced deuterium/hydrogen ratio on Venus.

Cravens, T. E.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Otx1 null mutant mice show partial segregation of sensory epithelia comparable to lamprey ears

We investigated the development of inner ear innervation in Otx1 null mutants, which lack a horizontal canal, between embryonic day 12 (E12) and postnatal day 7 (P7) with DiI and immunostaining for acetylated tubulin. Comparable to control animals, horizontal crista-like fibers were found to cross over the utricle in Otx1 null mice. In mutants these fibers extend toward an area near the endolymphatic duct, not to a horizontal crista. Most Otx1 null mutants had a small patch of sensory hair cells at this position. Measurement of the area of the utricular macula suggested it to be enlarged in Otx1 null mutants. We suggest that parts of the horizontal canal crista remain incorporated in the utricular sensory epithelium in Otx1 null mutants. Other parts of the horizontal crista appear to be variably segregated to form the isolated patch of hair cells identifiable by the unique fiber trajectory as representing the horizontal canal crista. Comparison with lamprey ear innervation reveals similarities in the pattern of innervation with the dorsal macula, a sensory patch of unknown function. SEM data confirm that all foramina are less constricted in Otx1 null mutants. We propose that Otx1 is not directly involved in sensory hair cell formation of the horizontal canal but affects the segregation of the horizontal canal crista from the utricle. It also affects constriction of the two main foramina in the ear, but not their initial formation. Otx1 is thus causally related to horizontal canal morphogenesis as well as morphogenesis of these foramina.

NASA Discipline Developmental Biology↗

NASA NTRS1989

Launching a dream: A teachers guide to a simulated space shuttle mission

Two simulated shuttle missions cosponsored by the NASA Lewis Research Center and Cleveland, Ohio, area schools are highlighted in this manual for teachers. A simulated space shuttle mission is an opportunity for students of all ages to plan, train for, and conduct a shuttle mission. Some students are selected to be astronauts, flight planners, and flight controllers. Other students build and test the experiments that the astronauts will conduct. Some set up mission control, while others design the mission patch. Students also serve as security officers or carry out public relations activities. For the simulated shuttle mission, school buses or recreation vehicles are converted to represent shuttle orbiters. All aspects of a shuttle mission are included. During preflight activities the shuttle is prepared, and experiments and a flight plan are made ready for launch day. The flight itself includes lifting off, conducting experiments on orbit, and rendezvousing with the crew from the sister school. After landing back at the home school, the student astronauts are debriefed and hold press conferences. The astronauts celebrate their successful missions with their fellow students at school and with the community at an evening postflight recognition program. To date, approximately 6,000 students have been involved in simulated shuttle missions with the Lewis Research Center. A list of participating schools, along with the names of their space shuttles, is included. Educations outcomes and other positive effects for the students are described.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2002

Get a winning Oracle upgrade session using the quarterback approach

Upgrades, upgrades... too much customer down time. Find out how we shrunk our production upgrade schedule 40% from our estimate of 10 days 12 hours to 6 days 2 hours using the quarterback approach. So your upgrade is not that complex, come anyway. This approach is scalable to any size project and will be extremely valuable.

Oracle upgrade schedule quarterback approach IBS N↗

NASA NTRS1993

Practical aspects of transfer from GTO to lunar orbit

This paper is a presentation of some practical aspects of orbital transfer from Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO) to close, near-circular orbits of the Moon. The intent is to identify the important parameters affecting the problem and to bound (approximately) the range of required delta V for a spacecraft that has been placed in GTO. The basic geometric relationships are described and the dynamics are simulated by use of the Zero-Sphere-of Influence Patched Conic method. It is found that the inclination of the transfer orbit to the Earth-Moon plane is relatively unimportant while the position of the line of apsides with respect to the Moon's orbit is the main geometric parameter of interest. It is shown that this parameter can be controlled by selecting the time of day for launch and that two launch windows of approximately 45 minutes duration are available each day of the year if use is made of the recommended phasing orbit transfer. The phasing orbit transfer not only provides twice-daily launch windows, but also provides a mechanism for efficacious correction of GTO injection errors. Delta V penalties for out-of-plane transfer and for late launch are evaluated and the method is recommended for use as an affordable means of achieving lunar orbit.

Uphoff, Chauncey↗

NASA NTRS1973

Planetary flybys resulting in heliocentric orbits normal to the ecliptic with fixed perihelia.

An iterative procedure is applied to a patched conic trajectory sequence in which a spacecraft is launched from the earth, flys by the planet Jupiter, and leaves Jupiter along a heliocentric trajectory whose plane is normal to the ecliptic, and whose perihelion is fixed at 0.1 AU. Six launch opportunities, spaced apart in time at approximately the mean synodic period of earth and Jupiter (roughly 400 days), are examined.

Buglia, J. J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Large-Scale Aspects and Temporal Evolution of Pulsating Aurora

Pulsating aurora is a common phenomenon generally believed to occur mainly in the aftermath of a, substorm, where dim long-period pulsating patches appear. The study determines the temporal and spatial evolution of pulsating events using two THEN IIIS ASI stations, at Gillam (66.18 mlat, 332.78 mlon, magnetic midnight at 0634 UT) and Fort Smith, (67.38 mlat, 306.64 mlon, magnetic midnight at, 0806 UT) along roughly the same invariant latitude. Parameters have been calculated from a database of 74 pulsating aurora events from 119 days of good optical data within the period from September 2007 through March 2008 as identified with the Gillam camera. It is shown that the source region of pulsating aurora drifts or expands eastward, away from magnetic midnight, for pre-midnight onsets and that the spatial evolution is more complicated for post midnight onsets, which has implications for the source mechanism. The most probable duration of a pulsating aurora event is roughly 1.5 hours while the distribution of possible event durations includes many long (several hours) events. This may suggest that pulsating aurora is not strictly a substorm recovery phase phenomenon but rather a persistent, long-lived phenomenon that may be temporarily disrupted by auroral substorms. Observations from the Gillam station show that in fact, pulsating aurora is quite common with the occurrence rate increasing to around 60% for morning hours, with 6910 of pulsating aurora onsets occurring after substorm breakup.

Jones, S. L.↗

NASA NTRS1997

A Laboratory Study of the Effect of Frost Flowers on C Band Radar Backscatter from Sea Ice

C band images of Arctic sea ice taken by the ERS 1 synthetic aperture radar show transitory regions of enhanced radar backscatter from young sea ice. Published field observations associate this increase with frost flower growth and the capture of blowing snow by the flowers. To investigate the first part of this phenomenon, we carried out a laboratory experiment on the response of C band radar backscatter to frost flowers growing on the surface of newly formed saline ice. The experiment took place in a 5 m by 7 m by 1.2 m deep saline water pool located in a two-story indoor refrigerated facility at the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory. Sodium chloride ice was grown in this pool at an air temperature of -28 C. The frost flowers first appeared on the ice surface as dendrites and then changed to needles as the ice sheet grew thicker and the surface temperatures became colder. The frost flowers reached to a height of 10-15 mm, and beneath each cluster of frost flowers a slush layer formed to a thickness of approximately 4 mm. Far-field radar measurements of the backscatter from the ice were made at incident angles from 20 to 40 deg and at approximately 6-hour intervals throughout the 3-day period of the experiment. A backscatter minimum occurred early in the flower growth at the time coincident with an abrupt doubling in the ice surface salinity. Once the full flower coverage was achieved, we removed first the crystal flowers and then the slush layer from the ice surface. The results for these cases show that the crystals have little impact on the backscatter, while the underlying slush patches yield a backscatter increase of 3-5 dB over that of bare ice. The laboratory results suggest that this relative backscatter increase of approximately 5 dB can be used as an index to mark the full area coverage of frost flowers.

Nghiem, S. V.↗

NASA NTRS1997

A Laboratory Study of the Effect of Frost Flowers on C Band Radar Backscatter from Sea Ice

C band images of Arctic sea ice taken by the ERS 1 synthetic aperture radar show transitory regions of enhanced radar backscatter from young sea ice. Published field observations associate this increase with frost flower growth and the capture of blowing snow by the flowers. To investigate the first part of this phenomenon, we carried out a laboratory experiment on the response of C band radar backscatter to frost flowers growing on the surface of newly formed saline ice. The experiment took place in a 5 m by 7 m by 1.2 m deep saline water pool located in a two-story indoor refrigerated facility at the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory. Sodium chloride ice was grown in this pool at an air temperature of -28 C. The frost flowers first appeared on the ice surface as dendrites and then changed to needles as the ice sheet grew thicker and the surface temperatures became colder. The frost flowers reached to a height of 10-15 mm, and beneath each cluster of frost flowers a slush layer formed to a thickness of approximately 4 mm. Far-field radar measurements of the backscatter from the ice were made at incident angles from 20 C to 40 C and at approximately 6-hour intervals throughout the 3-day period of the experiment. A backscatter minimum occurred early in the flower growth at the time coincident with an abrupt doubling in the ice surface salinity. Once the full flower coverage was achieved, we removed first the crystal flowers and then the slush layer from the ice surface. The results for these cases show that the crystals have little impact on the backscatter, while the underlying slush patches yield a backscatter increase of 3-5 dB over that o f bare ice. The laboratory results suggest that this relative backscatter increase of approximately 5 dB can be used as an index to mark the full areal coverage of frost flowers.

Nghiem, S. V.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Evaluate ERTS imagery for mapping and detection of changes of snowcover on land and on glaciers

The author has identified the following significant results. Snowlines on a small (6 sq km) drainage basin were accurately measured without use of digital processing, and snow patches as small as 150 m (maximum dimension) were correctly identified, proving that the resolution of ERTS is ample for snow mapping needs. The area of snow cover on 10 individual drainage basins in the North Cascades, Washington, has been determined at 12 different times; these data can be used for more accurate forecasts of streamflow. Progress has been made in distinguishing snow in trees using multispectral analysis. Motion of the surging Tweedsmuir Glacier was measured. Velocities ranged from 2 to 88 m per day; a zone of intense crevassing also appeared to spread up and down the glacier (at about 200 m per day upglacier). This tentative result may be of great importance to an understanding of surging glacier dynamics. ERTS images also show that the most recent debris flow (20-21 August 1973) from Mount Baker can be clearly discerned and mapped, in order to monitor this potential hazard.

Meier, M. F.↗

NASA NTRS1997

The dynamic quiet solar corona: 4 days of joint observing with MDI and EIT

The analysis of a sequence of joint extreme ultraviolet imaging telescope (EIT) Fe XII and Michelson Doppler imager (MDI) magnetogram observations of the quiet sun near disk center is presented. It was found that: all the emerging flux above the threshold of approximately 10(sup 17) Mx is associated with enhanced coronal emissions; loop systems between the polarities in ephemeral regions remain visible up to separations of 10000 up to 30000 km; brightenings between approaching opposite polarity network concentrations form when the concentrations are between 5000 and 25000 km apart, and that faint connections up to 40000 km in length form as sets of concentrations of the same polarity coagulate. The coronal emission over patches of the quiet sun depends on the total flux in connected concentrations, on their distance and on the positions and strengths of neighboring concentrations.

Schrijver, C. J.↗