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At least 37 records · Page 2

International collaboration framework for the calculation of performance loss rates: Data quality, benchmarks, and trends (towards a uniform methodology)

Abstract The IEA PVPS Task 13 group, experts who focus on photovoltaic performance, operation, and reliability from several leading R&D centers, universities, and industrial companies, is developing a framework for the calculation of performance loss rates of a large number of commercial and research photovoltaic (PV) power plants and their related weather data coming across various climatic zones. The general steps to calculate the performance loss rate are (i) input data cleaning and grading; (ii) data filtering; (iii) performance metric selection, corrections, and aggregation; and finally, (iv) application of a statistical modeling method to determine the performance loss rate value. In this study, several high‐quality power and irradiance datasets have been shared, and the participants of the study were asked to calculate the performance loss rate of each individual system using their preferred methodologies. The data are used for benchmarking activities and to define capabilities and uncertainties of all the various methods. The combination of data filtering, metrics (performance ratio or power based), and statistical modeling methods are benchmarked in terms of (i) their deviation from the average value and (ii) their uncertainty, standard error, and confidence intervals. It was observed that careful data filtering is an essential foundation for reliable performance loss rate calculations. Furthermore, the selection of the calculation steps filter/metric/statistical method is highly dependent on one another, and the steps should not be assessed individually.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Estimating the Performance Loss Rate of Photovoltaic Systems Using Time Series Change Point Analysis

The accurate quantification of the performance loss rate of photovoltaic systems is critical for project economics. Following the current research activities in the photovoltaic performance and reliability field, this work presents a comparative assessment between common change point methods for performance loss rate estimation of fielded photovoltaic installations. An extensive testing campaign was thus performed to evaluate time series analysis approaches for performance loss rate evaluation of photovoltaic systems. Historical electrical data from eleven photovoltaic systems installed in Nicosia, Cyprus, and the locations’ meteorological measurements over a period of 8 years were used for this investigation. The application of change point detection algorithms on the constructed monthly photovoltaic performance ratio series revealed that the obtained trend might not always be linear. Specifically, thin film photovoltaic systems showed nonlinear behavior, while nonlinearities were also detected for some crystalline silicon photovoltaic systems. When applying several change point techniques, different numbers and locations of changes were detected, resulting in different performance loss rate values (varying by up to 0.85%/year even for the same number of change points). The results highlighted the importance of the application of nonlinear techniques and the need to extract a robust nonlinear model for detecting significant changes in time series data and estimating accurately the performance loss rate of photovoltaic installations.

photovoltaics↗

Reducing Uncertainty of Fielded Photovoltaic Performance (Final Technical Report)

Improved analysis and reporting of photovoltaic (PV) field performance increases the certainty of owners and financiers that systems will perform as expected. Advanced module technologies (e.g., PERC, HJT, and bifacial) introduce new degradation mechanisms and performance characteristics. The FY19-21 Reducing Uncertainty project leveraged data from the ever-increasing PV fleet to develop models and understanding of the field performance of existing and new technologies. Specifically, we accomplished: report on field performance and degradation rates for high-efficiency silicon (HJT, PERC, IBC) and more conventional technologies; developed automated analysis techniques to quantify system performance (performance ratio, energy yield) and production shortfalls (soiling, degradation, availability); refined the RdTools software toolkit to bring standard, validated analysis techniques to bear on third-party data; analyzed and reported on large datasets including Treasury data and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's Utility-Scale dataset to expand the high-quality degradation-rate histogram published previously; worked with industry partners and the DuraMAT data hub to enable private parties to share and aggregate PV production data anonymously, leveraging cloud-based data analysis infrastructure and publishing on US fleet-scale performance comprising over 7GW of operating systems. (https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html). Through our industry collaborations we have engaged in NDA-covered data transfer with twelve PV fleet owners as of January 2022, with more agreements in negotiation. Our scalable cloud-based time series database contains over 30 billion rows (20TB) of PV time series data, representing over 1700 commercial and utility-scale systems, and over 7.2 GW of DC capacity (Fig 1). Initial field performance results have been distributed in several public reports. Because our fleet composition and data quality methods are continually improving, annual updates to these results are published to our PV Fleet webpage [ https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html ] and DuraMAT data hub [DOI: 10.21948/1842958]. Another existing dissemination channel used for observed soiling losses is a map we maintain for soiling losses. Additional products developed include a report detailing fleet-wide performance index, availability, startup loss and snow loss factors, a detailed report on the 1603 grant dataset comprising over 100,000 PV systems with failure and performance details and a utility-scale report coauthored with LBNL on 31 GW of system performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Nonlinear Photovoltaic Degradation Rates: Modeling and Comparison Against Conventional Methods

Although common practice for estimating photovoltaic (PV) degradation rate (RD) assumes a linear behavior, field data have shown that degradation rates are frequently nonlinear. This article presents a new methodology to detect and calculate nonlinear RD based on PV performance time-series from nine different systems over an eight-year period. Prior to performing the analysis and in order to adjust model parameters to reflect actual PV operation, synthetic datasets were utilized for calibration purposes. A change-point analysis is then applied to detect changes in the slopes of PV trends, which are extracted from constructed performance ratio (PR) time-series. Once the number and location of change points is found, the ordinary least squares method is applied to the different segments to compute the corresponding rates. The obtained results verified that the extracted trends from the PR time-series may not always be linear and therefore, “nonconventional” models need to be applied. All thin-film technologies demonstrated nonlinear behavior whereas nonlinearity detected in the crystalline silicon systems is thought to be due to a maintenance event. A comparative analysis between the new methodology and other conventional methods demonstrated levelized cost of energy differences of up to 6.14%, highlighting the importance of considering nonlinear degradation behavior

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Worldwide Physics-Based Lifetime Prediction of c-Si Modules Due to Solder-Bond Failure

Lifetime prediction of the fielded c-Si solar modules due to location-specific weather conditions has been an important topic of photovoltaic research and the economic viability of solar energy. Data analytic techniques such as the performance ratio method, Statistical clear sky model, and Suns-Vmp methods quantify the degradation from measured data of a solar farm, however, the nonlinear time-dependence and correlated degradations make it difficult to use the empirical degradation rates for ultimate lifetime projection. In this article, we propose a complementary physics-based model to predict the solder bond failure caused by mechanical stress associated with the variations of the temperature. Integrating the worldwide weather information from NASA/NSRDB databases, the model predicts the location-specific output-power degradation and the lifetime of a module due to solder bond failure. The model parameters are calibrated against qualification tests involving thermal cycling of specific batches of modules from a specific technology/manufacturer. The results may be summarized as: 1) Modules installed at higher latitudes show a longer lifetime due to reduced damage accumulation. 2) The reduction of temperature fluctuation close to large bodies of water, such as seashores, increases solder bond lifetime significantly. 3) Relatively speaking, modules installed close to the Tropic of Cancer/Capricorn (23.5 degrees North/South) suffer from a higher solder bond damage and have a shorter lifetime, suggesting a conservative design. This model should serve as a building block of a comprehensive reliability framework that can predict the lifetime of a module that experiences simultaneous and correlated degradation mechanisms involving yellowing, corrosion, and potential-induced degradation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Optimizing dietary rumen-degradable starch to rumen-degradable protein ratio improves lactation performance and nitrogen utilization efficiency in mid-lactating Holstein dairy cows

The dietary rumen-degradable starch (RDS) to rumen-degradable protein (RDP) ratio, denoted as the RDS-to-RDP ratio (SPR), has been proven to enhance in vitro rumen fermentation. However, the effects of dietary SPR in vivo remain largely unexplored. This study was conducted to investigate the effect of dietary SPR on lactation performance, nutrient digestibility, rumen fermentation patterns, blood indicators, and nitrogen (N) partitioning in mid-lactating Holstein cows. Seventy-two Holstein dairy cows were randomly assigned to three groups (24 head/group), balanced for (mean ± standard deviation) days in milk (116 ± 21.5), parity (2.1 ± 0.8), milk production (42 ± 2.1 kg/d), and body weight (705 ± 52.5 kg). The cows were fed diets with low (2.1, control), medium (2.3), or high (2.5) SPR, formulated to be isoenergetic, isonitrogenous, and iso-starch. The study consisted of a one-week adaptation phase followed by an eight-week experimental period. The results indicated that the high SPR group had a lower dry matter intake compared to the other groups ( p < 0.05). A quadratic increase in milk yield and feed efficiency was observed with increasing dietary SPR ( p < 0.05), peaking in the medium SPR group. The medium SPR group exhibited a lower milk somatic cell count and a higher blood total antioxidant capacity compared to other groups ( p < 0.05). With increasing dietary SPR, there was a quadratic improvement ( p < 0.05) in the total tract apparent digestibility of crude protein, ether extract, starch, neutral detergent fiber, and acid detergent fiber. Although no treatment effect was observed in rumen pH, the rumen total volatile fatty acids concentration and microbial crude protein synthesis increased quadratically ( p < 0.05) as dietary SPR increased. The molar proportion of propionate linearly increased ( p = 0.01), while branched-chain volatile fatty acids linearly decreased ( p = 0.01) with increasing dietary SPR. The low SPR group (control) exhibited higher concentration of milk urea N, rumen ammonia N, and blood urea N than other groups ( p < 0.05). Despite a linear decrease ( p < 0.05) in the proportion of urinary N to N intake, increasing dietary SPR led to a quadratic increase ( p = 0.01) in N utilization efficiency and a quadratic decrease ( p < 0.05) in the proportion of fecal N to N intake. In conclusion, optimizing dietary SPR has the potential to enhance lactation performance and N utilization efficiency. Based on our findings, a medium dietary SPR (with SPR = 2.3) is recommended for mid-lactating Holstein dairy cows. Nevertheless, further research on rumen microbial composition and metabolites is warranted to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of the observed effects.

Chen, Panliang↗

Development of Multi-Filament Textured-Powder Bi-2212/Ag Wire With Enhanced Local Area Ratio

The performance and cost of Bi-2212/Ag wire is limited by the large fraction of Ag matrix (~3:1) that is required in the oxide-powder-in-tube fabrication process. An alternative fabrication process is being developed in which fine-powder Bi-2212 is uniaxially compressed to form bars with a thin Ag foil sheath. The fine powder naturally textures (aligns the a-b planes perpendicular to the direction of compaction) with texture >80% using 200 MPa compression. A billet is formed by stacking trapezoidal- cross-section bars in a symmetric 8-12-16 pattern around an Ag rod and enclosed in an Ag-wall extrusion can. Here, the billet is extruded and drawn to fine wire. Results are presented on present status of the development and testing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Effect of the J-Shaped Wind Turbine Airfoil Opening Ratio and Thickness on the Performance of Symmetrical Airfoils

Abstract In this work, the effect of the inner opening ratio on the J-shaped airfoils aerodynamic performance was studied and documented for symmetrical airfoils. Three different airfoil thicknesses were investigated: small (NACA0008), medium (NACA0015), and large (NACA0024). For each airfoil thickness, effects of three inner opening ratios were analyzed: one-third, one-half, and two-thirds. The performance of each opening ratio was compared with the performance of the solid airfoil “zero opening ratio” for different angles of attack between 5 deg and 20 deg. All designs were simulated using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) technology against experimental results for solid NACA4412 airfoil in the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (UWM) wind tunnel facility and other published experimental data. It was found that large eddy simulation yields accurate solutions with a smaller number of mesh cells compared to the k–ω turbulence model but with much longer computational time. The lift-to-drag ratio for all studied airfoils has a maximum value for solid airfoils compared to those equipped with openings. For airfoils equipped with 00.00% opening ratio “solid,” NACA0015 airfoil has the maximum lift-to-drag ratio. Furthermore, it was found that NACA0008 equipped with a 33.33% opening ratio has the best performance of all studied J-shaped airfoils.

Energy & Fuels↗

Review of Technical Photovoltaic Key Performance Indicators and the Importance of Data Quality Routines

Technical key performance indicators (KPIs) are important metrics used to assess and quantitatively summarize various aspects of photovoltaic (PV) systems, including long-term performance, economic viability, and carbon footprint. Herein, a group of experts of the International Energy Agency's Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme Task 13 collect and describ the most important technical KPIs used in the industry. Thereby, a set of best practices for reliably handling PV system data is presented and the impact of data quality and climatic variability on KPI calculation is investigated. Further, the effective use of technical KPIs allows triggering data-driven and informed decisions to optimize PV systems and providing a comprehensive overview of how PV systems operate across different conditions and climates. With the worldwide growth of the PV industry, more companies operate/own PV systems in different regions, where the climatic and seasonal profiles differ. This requires context-aware evaluation of KPIs, or the judicious application of multiple KPIs, to ensure that each asset is evaluated correctly. Beyond that, there is untapped potential in the utilization of KPIs through geospatial mapping and extrapolation of fleet KPIs. This study demonstrates that the uncertainty in KPI estimation is not well understood and depends on data quality, climatic variability, and system configuration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Numerical Investigation of Two-Stage Vapor Compression System with Simultaneous Vapor and Liquid Injection

Two-stage vapor compression systems can be advantageous over single-stage systems by providing improved system performance, lower discharge temperature and reduced throttling losses. These systems employ various intermediate configurations, such as liquid injection and vapor injection. This paper presents a configuration for a R1234ze(E) two-stage air-conditioning system using a turbo compressor with two injection ports, one for vapor injection and the second for liquid injection. The liquid injection is used to cool the motor and electronics. A component-based representation and solution approach was used to simulate the two-stage compression system with simultaneous vapor and liquid injection at steady state. The turbo compressor was represented using a customized performance map. The condenser and the evaporator were modeled using finite-volume approach. A parametric study was conducted to assess the impact of the following three variables on the system performance: vapor injection ratio, condenser air flow rate, and discharge pipe pressure drop. The simulation results show that as the vapor injection ratio increased, the system performance undergoes a tradeoff between an enhanced subcooling effect (and thus enhanced unit refrigeration capacity) and a decreased suction mass flow rate. Maximum COP occurs when the vapor injection ratio was 0.1. The results also show that as the condenser air flow rate increased, both the capacity and power consumption (including fan power) increased monotonically, and COP increased first and then decreased. At 75% load, the COP improvement at the optimum flow rate was marginally less than 0.5%. Lastly, higher discharge pipe pressure drop increased the discharge pressure. It showed very small effect on the overall system performance at the condition selected for the current study.

component-based steady-state simulation↗

Synergistic interactions between anammox and dissimilatory nitrate reducing bacteria sustains reactor performance across variable nitrogen loading ratios

Anaerobic ammonium oxidizing (anammox) bacteria are utilized for high efficiency nitrogen removal from nitrogen-laden sidestreams in wastewater treatment plants. The anammox bacteria form a variety of competitive and mutualistic interactions with heterotrophic bacteria that often employ denitrification or dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) for energy generation. These interactions can be heavily influenced by the influent ratio of ammonium to nitrite, NH 4 + :NO 2 - , where deviations from the widely acknowledged stoichiometric ratio (1:1.32) have been demonstrated to have deleterious effects on anammox efficiency. Thus, it is important to understand how variable NH 4 + :NO 2 - ratios impact the microbial ecology of anammox reactors. We observed the response of the microbial community in a lab scale anammox membrane bioreactor (MBR) to changes in the influent NH 4 + :NO 2 - ratio using both 16S rRNA gene and shotgun metagenomic sequencing. Ammonium removal efficiency decreased from 99.77 ± 0.04% when the ratio was 1:1.32 (prior to day 89) to 90.85 ± 0.29% when the ratio was decreased to 1:1.1 (day 89–202) and 90.14 ± 0.09% when the ratio was changed to 1:1.13 (day 169–200). Over this same timespan, the overall nitrogen removal efficiency (NRE) remained relatively unchanged (85.26 ± 0.01% from day 0–89, compared to 85.49 ± 0.01% from day 89–169, and 83.04 ± 0.01% from day 169–200). When the ratio was slightly increased to 1:1.17–1:1.2 (day 202–253), the ammonium removal efficiency increased to 97.28 ± 0.45% and the NRE increased to 88.21 ± 0.01%. Analysis of 16S rRNA gene sequences demonstrated increased relative abundance of taxa belonging to Bacteroidetes, Chloroflexi, and Ignavibacteriae over the course of the experiment. The relative abundance of Planctomycetes, the phylum to which anammox bacteria belong, decreased from 77.19% at the beginning of the experiment to 12.24% by the end of the experiment. Analysis of metagenome assembled genomes (MAGs) indicated increased abundance of bacteria with nrfAH genes used for DNRA after the introduction of lower influent NH 4 + :NO 2 - ratios. The high relative abundance of DNRA bacteria coinciding with sustained bioreactor performance indicates a mutualistic relationship between the anammox and DNRA bacteria. Understanding these interactions could support more robust bioreactor operation at variable nitrogen loading ratios.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of the concentration ratio on the thermal and economic performance of parabolic trough collectors

The thermal and economic performance of parabolic trough collectors (PTCs) and PTCs with double glass envelope (DGE-PTCs) are analyzed in this work. A model including thermal and optical effects is developed to evaluate the efficiency of vacuum and air-filled DGE-PTCs, while an economic model based on two commercial PTCs (SkyTrough and Ultimate Trough collectors) was developed to assess the economic performance. The efficiency and thermal output per unit cost of the proposed DGE-PTCs are analyzed as a function of the concentration ratio and are respectively compared with the thermal and economic performance of traditional and commercial PTCs. The optimum concentration ratio for maximum thermal performance varies from 11.0 to 23.3 for operation temperatures (T HTF ) between 100 degrees C and 400 degrees C, while the optimum concentration ratio for maximum economic performance ranges between 28.9 and 33.2 for the SkyTrough and between 40.0 and 43.8 for the Ultimate Trough collector designs. Finally, the DGE-PTCs present higher thermal and economic performance at high operating temperatures, which presents a valuable opportunity for implementation in new PTC designs pursuing higher operating temperatures to achieve superior thermal cycle efficiencies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Integrated Design of Ultradurable, Low CO 2 Alternative Binder Systems via Machine Learning

This ARPA-E project developed a machine learning tool to use in formulation design of cementitious binders for concrete having 50% less embodied CO 2 and possessing twice the durability compared to concrete based on ordinary portland cement (OPC) binders. The technical focus was on limestone/calcined clay cement (LC3), the leading replacement for OPC. Here, hierarchical machine learning (HML) was used to model the flowability, set time, strength, and durability of LC3 concrete. This methodology identifies latent variables derived from domain knowledge and empirical models that develop an accurate model for a response surface from small datasets. For the flowability metric, particle packing was a dominant factor, while strength and durability were both strongly determined by the fraction of metakaolin and the water:solids ratio. Under constraints of water:binder ratio, material performance metrics, embodied CO 2 , and cost per tonne of OPC, multi-objective optimization was used to design binders parameterized by the mineral composition replacing OPC, particle size distributions, and water:solids ratio. The trained algorithm was able to predict multiple mixes met these performance criteria, and experimental testing validated the predictions. The model demonstrated here is relevant for North America, where pure kaolin deposits are found broadly. The approach is being taken forward into commercial application by Ansatz AI, a materials informatics company founded by PI Washburn and co-PI Poczos. Through collaborations with the cement and concrete industry, and funding from SBIR programs, a commercial software will be developed in future research.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Performance and wake flow characterization of a 1:8.7-scale reference USDOE MHKF1 hydrokinetic turbine to establish a verification and validation test database

As hydrokinetic turbine technologies continue to advance towards commercialization, public datasets on the performance characteristics for these devices and their flow field effects are invaluable to advance our understanding of these technologies and to validate analytical and numerical models. The Applied Research Laboratory at The Pennsylvania State University (ARL Penn State) collaborated with Sandia National Laboratories and the University of California at Davis to design, fabricate (at a 1:8.7 scale), and experimentally test a novel hydrokinetic turbine rotor design to provide an open platform and dataset for further study and development. The water tunnel test of this three-bladed, horizontal-axis rotor recorded power production, blade loading, the near-wake flow, cavitation effects, and noise generation. These state-of-the-art measurements demonstrate much of the complex physics associated with the flow through an unducted, horizontal-axis turbine, and they elucidate the performance characteristics and flow field effects at an unprecedented fidelity, accuracy and resolution. Measurements of powering coefficients (power, torque and thrust) as a function of tip-speed-ratio were performed. The dataset also includes unsteady measurements of driveshaft loading, blade strain, tower pressures, and radiated noise. Detailed flow mapping using laser Doppler velocimetry, and planar and stereo particle image velocimetry includes measurements of mean velocity and Reynolds stresses. Although the wake measurements are limited to less than half a diameter, they reveal the complex flow patterns in the near-wake structure of the rotor. The full database, available at the United States Department of Energy’s marine and hydrokinetic data repository, includes tunnel and model Computer Aided Design geometry files and inflow data sufficient for a “Model-the-Test” computational Verification and Validation study.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Revealing local order via high energy EELS

Short range order (SRO) is critical in determining the performance of many important engineering materials. However, accurate characterization of SRO with high spatial resolution – which is needed for the study of individual nanoparticles and at material defects and interfaces – is often experimentally inaccessible. Here, we locally quantify SRO via scanning transmission electron microscopy with extended energy loss fine structure analysis. Specifically, we use novel instrumentation to perform electron energy loss spectroscopy out to 12 keV, accessing energies which are conventionally only possible using a synchrotron. Our data is of sufficient energy resolution and signal-to-noise ratio to perform quantitative extended fine structure analysis, which allows determination of local coordination environments. To showcase this technique, we investigate a multicomponent metallic glass nanolaminate and locally quantify the SRO with <10 nm spatial resolution; this measurement would have been impossible with conventional synchrotron or electron microscopy methods. Finally, we discuss the nature of SRO within the metallic glass phase, as well as the wider applicability of our approach for determining processing–SRO–property relationships in complex materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Signature Analysis Utilizing a Dynamic Molten Salt Reactor Model for MC&A

Moving from traditional fixed fuel nuclear reactor systems to a mobile, dynamic fuel system that has dissolved special nuclear material in a molten salt is a paradigm shift in several respects. One major consideration is how to develop effective nuclear material controls and accounting for these novel reactor systems. The Molten Salt Reactor Experiment is one example of a critical molten salt system and provided a significant reference library based on the documented effort. But it was low thermal power that was not intended to reflect a commercial scale electricity production design. Therefore, to facilitate and assist vendors with domestic licensing considerations, research is underway to identify methods that could be used for domestic safeguards approaches for these novel reactor systems. This research presents the results of a signature analysis of data generated from three simulated scenarios using the molten salt demonstration reactor model defined in the Transient Simulation Framework of Reconfigurable Modules. Each scenario provides 1 hour isotope inventories over a 180 day period. The scenarios investigated provide test cases to examine if direct gamma-ray spectroscopy of the fuel can be used to identify changes comparing a base case (no reactivity control and fixed fission contribution) to an insertion of reactivity (10 pcm no change in fission composition) and a change in fission composition. The analysis demonstrates that monitoring the total count rate in a highly collimated high-resolution photon energy spectrum is sensitive to perturbations imposed into the reactor model. The total photon count rate changes ≈2% for the fission composition change and ≈4.5% for the reactivity insertion compared to the base case. However, both scenarios show an increase in the total photon count rate. The total photon count rate can be used to identify changes due to power (number of fissions) but not due to a change in the material undergoing fission. To distinguish between the two cases of increased power, the photon spectrum would require an intensive analysis technique. A photon peak count rate ratio analysis could be used to identify changes in the fissile material fission generation in the core through identification of a static peak that shows little variation to the source of fission and a highly varying peak. The photon peak strength will ultimately be determined by the isotope’s fission yield. A preliminary analysis investigating the coupling of the isotope’s fission yield and its concentration in the fuel salt derived from the modeling has been performed. A ratio analysis of the photon peak count rates of 140 La to 99 Mo demonstrated that the reactivity insertion creates a distinct difference in the ratio compared to the fission composition change scenario.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗