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At least 37 records · Page 2

Emergent Trends Complicate the Interpretation of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM)

Abstract Effective drought management must be informed by an understanding of whether and how current drought monitoring and assessment practices represent underlying nonstationary climate conditions, either naturally occurring or forced by climate change. Here we investigate the emerging climatology and associated trends in drought classes defined by the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), a weekly product that, since 2000, has been used to inform drought management in the United States. The USDM classifies drought intensity based in part on threshold percentiles in key hydroclimate quantities. Here we assess how those USDM‐defined drought threshold percentiles have changed over the last 23 years, examining precipitation, runoff, soil moisture (SM), terrestrial water storage (TWS), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and near‐surface air temperature. We also assess underlying trends in the frequency of drought classifications across the U.S. Our analysis suggests that the frequency of drought class occurrence is exceeding the threshold percentiles defined by the USDM in a number of regions in the United States, particularly in the American West, where the last 23 years have emerged as a prolonged dry period. These trends are also reflected in percentile‐based thresholds in precipitation, runoff, SM, TWS, VPD, and temperature. Our results emphasize that while the USDM appears to be accurately reflecting observed nonstationarity in the physical climate, such trends raise critical questions about whether and how drought diagnosis, classification, and monitoring should address long‐term intervals of wet and dry periods or trends.

Geology↗

Observational Evidence for Wind‐Driven Low‐Pass Filtering of Infrasound at Short Range

Infrasound from controlled explosions provides a unique opportunity to isolate atmospheric effects on propagation. We report observations from two campaigns in May and October 2024, each featuring 10‐ton TNT‐equivalent controlled surface chemical explosions recorded by a dense network of 31 single‐sensor stations within 23 km. Despite identical sources, the observed wavefields were very different. October signals followed a near‐unimodal period–distance trend, whereas May signals exhibited a pronounced azimuthal bifurcation in both period and celerity. Downwind paths largely preserved the short‐period baseline observed in October, while upwind paths showed systematically longer periods caused by wind‐driven low‐pass filtering. This study provides the first direct observational evidence that tropospheric winds can impose azimuth‐dependent low‐pass filtering at local ranges, without the influence of measured temperature inversions. Thus, the structure of the atmosphere can modify the spectral characteristics of low‐frequency acoustic waves even at a distance of only a few kilometers.

Geosciences↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Turbine-Driven Pumps 1998-2020

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of turbine-driven pumps (TDPs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2020 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The TDP failure modes considered for standby systems are fail to start (FTS), fail to run (FTR) for one hour of operation (FTR≤1H), FTR after one hour of operation (FTR>1H), and for normally running systems FTS and FTR. An eight-hour unreliability estimate is also calculated and trended. The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. No increasing trends were identified for TDPs for the most recent 10-year period: The following decreasing trends were identified for TDPs for the most recent 10-year period: • Standby TDP FTR>1H failure rate • Standby TDP unavailability • Standby MDP total unreliability (8-hour mission) • Standby TDP frequency of FTR>1H events (failures per reactor year) • Normally running TDP frequency of start demands (demands per reactor year) • Normally running TDP frequency of run hours (hours per reactor year).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Turbine Driven Pumps 1998–2022

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of turbine driven pumps (TDPs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2022 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The TDP failure modes considered for standby systems are fail to start (FTS), fail to run (FTR) for one hour of operation (FTR=1H), FTR after one hour of operation (FTR>1H), and for normally running systems FTS and FTR. An eight hour unreliability estimate is also calculated and trended. The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10 year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. No increasing trends were identified for TDPs for the most recent 10 year period: The following decreasing trends were identified for TDPs for the most recent 10 year period: • Standby TDP FTR>1H failure rate • Normally running TDP FTR failure rate • Standby TDP unavailability • Standby MDP total unreliability (8-hour mission) • Standby TDP frequency of start demands (demands per reactor year) • Standby TDP frequency of FTR=1H hours (hours per reactor year) • Standby TDP frequency of FTR>1H events (failures per reactor year) • Normally running TDP frequency of start demands • Normally running TDP frequency of run hours • Normally running TDP frequency of FTR events.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Air-Operated Valves 1998–2020

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of air-operated valves (AOVs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2020 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The AOV failure modes considered are failure-to-open/close (FTOC), failure to operate or control (FTOP), and spurious operation (SO). The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. The following trends were identified for the most recent 10-year period: o Extremely statistically significant increasing trend for the frequency of FTOC demands (demands per reactor year) for low-demand (= 20 demands per year) AOVs o Extremely statistically significant increasing trend for the frequency of FTOC demands for high-demand (> 20 demands per year) AOVs o Highly statistically significant decreasing trend for the failure rate of FTOP for low-demand AOVs o Highly statistically significant decreasing trend for the frequency of FTOP events (failures per reactor year) for low-demand AOVs o Statistically significant decreasing trend for the failure rate of SO for low-demand AOVs o Statistically significant decreasing trend for the frequency of SO events (failures per reactor year) for low-demand AOVs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

From +I to +IV, Alkalis to Actinides: Capturing Cations across the Periodic Table with Keggin Polyoxometalate Ligands

Coordination chemistry trends across the periodic table are often difficult to probe experimentally due to limitations in finding a versatile but consistent chelating platform that can accommodate various elements without changing its coordination mode. Herein, we present new metal/ligand systems covering a wide range of ionic radii, charges, and elements. Five different ligands derived from the Keggin structure (HBW 11 O 39 8– , PW 11 O 39 7– , SiW 11 O 39 8– , GeW 11 O 39 8– , and GaW 11 O 39 9– ) were successfully crystallized with six different cations (Na + , Sr 2+ , Ba 2+ , La 3+ , Ce 4+ , and Th 4+ ) and characterized by single-crystal X-ray diffraction. Twenty-five new compounds were obtained by using Cs + as the counterion, yielding a consistent base formula of Cs x [M(XW 11 O 39 ) 2 ]·nH 2 O. Despite having a similar first-coordination sphere geometry (i.e., 8-coordinated), the nature of the central cation was found to impact the long-range geometry of the complexes. This unique crystallographic data set shows that, despite the traditional consensus, the local geometry of the cation (i.e., metal–oxygen bond distance) is not enough to depict the full impact of the complexed metal ion. The bending and twisting of the complexes, as well as ligand–ligand distances, were all impacted by the nature of the central cation. We also observed that counterions play a critical role by stabilizing the geometry of the M(XW 11 ) 2 complex and directing complex–complex interactions in the lattice. We also define certain structural limits for this type of complex, with the large Ba 2+ ion seemingly approaching those limits. Finally, this study thus lays the foundation for capturing the coordination chemistry of other rarer elements across the periodic table such as Ra 2+ , Ac 3+ , Bk 4+ , Cf 3+ , etc.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Turbine-Driven Pumps 1998-2024

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of turbine driven pumps (TDPs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2024 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The TDP failure modes considered for standby systems are fail to start (FTS), fail to run (FTR) for one hour of operation (FTR=1H), FTR after one hour of operation (FTR>1H), and for normally running systems FTS and FTR. An eight hour unreliability estimate is also calculated and trended. The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10 year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. No increasing trends were identified for TDPs for the most recent 10 year period.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A genetic tradeoff for tolerance to moderate and severe heat stress in US hybrid maize

Global climate change is increasing both average temperatures and the frequencies of extreme high temperatures. Past studies have documented a strong negative effect of exposures to temperatures >30°C on hybrid maize yields. However, these studies could not disentangle genetic adaptation via artificial selection from changes in agronomic practices. Because most of the earliest maize hybrids are no longer available, side-by-side comparisons with modern hybrids under current field conditions are generally impossible. Here, we report on the collection and curation of 81 years of public yield trial records covering 4,730 maize hybrids, which enabled us to model genetic variation for temperature responses among maize hybrids. We show that selection may have indirectly and inconsistently contributed to the genetic adaptation of maize to moderate heat stress over this time period while preserving genetic variance for continued adaptation. However, our results reveal the existence of a genetic tradeoff for tolerance to moderate and severe heat stress, leading to a decrease in tolerance to severe heat stress over the same time period. Both trends are particularly conspicuous since the mid-1970s. Such a tradeoff poses challenges to the continued adaptation of maize to warming climates due to a projected increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. Nevertheless, given recent advances in phenomics, enviromics, and physiological modeling, our results offer a degree of optimism for the capacity of plant breeders to adapt maize to warming climates, assuming appropriate levels of R&D investment.

Kusmec, Aaron (ORCID:000000032295385X)↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Motor-Operated Valves 1998-2020

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of motor-operated valves (MOVs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2020 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The MOV failure modes considered are fail to open or close (FTOC), fail to operate or control (FTOP), and spurious operation (SO). The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. The following increasing trend was identified for MOVs for the most recent 10-year period: • Low-demand MOV frequency of FTOC demands (demands per reactor year). The following increasing trends were identified for MOVs for the most recent 10-year period: • Low-demand MOV FTOC failure probability • Low-demand MOV frequency of FTOC events (failures per reactor year).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Motor-Operated Valves 1998-2024

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of motor-operated valves (MOVs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2024 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The MOV failure modes considered are fail to open or close (FTOC), fail to operate or control (FTOP), and spurious operation (SO). The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. The following increasing trend was identified for MOVs for the most recent 10-year period: • Low-demand MOV frequency of FTOC demands (demands per reactor year). The following decreasing trends were identified for MOVs for the most recent 10-year period: • Low-demand MOV FTOC failure probability • High-demand MOV SO failure rate • Low-demand MOV frequency of FTOC events (failures per reactor year) • High-demand MOV frequency of SO events (failures per reactor year).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Motor Operated Valves 1998–2022

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of motor-operated valves (MOVs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2022 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The MOV failure modes considered are fail to open or close (FTOC), fail to operate or control (FTOP), and spurious operation (SO). The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. The following increasing trend was identified for MOVs for the most recent 10-year period: • Low-demand MOV frequency of FTOC demands (demands per reactor year). The following decreasing trends were identified for MOVs for the most recent 10-year period: • Low-demand MOV FTOC failure probability • Low-demand MOV frequency of FTOC events (failures per reactor year).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Air Operated Valves 1998–2022

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of air operated valves (AOVs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2022 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The AOV failure modes considered are fail to open or close (FTOC), fail to operate or control (FTOP), and spurious operation (SO). The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10 year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. The following increasing trends were identified for AOVs for the most recent 10 year period: • Low demand AOV frequency of FTOC demands (demands per reactor year) • High demand AOV frequency of FTOC demands. The following decreasing trends were identified for AOVs for the most recent 10 year period: • Low demand AOV FTOC failure probability • Low demand AOV FTOP failure rate • Low demand AOV frequency of FTOC events (failures per reactor year) • Low demand AOV frequency of FTOP events.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Motor-Driven Pumps 1998-2020

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of motor-driven pumps (MDPs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2020 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The MDP failure modes considered for standby systems are fail to start (FTS), fail to run (FTR) for one hour of operation (FTR≤1H), FTR after one hour of operation (FTR>1H), and for normally running systems FTS and FTR. An eight-hour unreliability estimate is also calculated and trended. The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. The following increasing trends were identified for MDPs for the most recent 10-year period: • Standby MDP frequency of start demands (demands per reactor year) • Standby MDP frequency of FTR≤1H hours (hours per reactor year) • Standby MDP frequency of FTR>1H hours • Normally running MDP frequency of run hours. The following decreasing trends were identified for MDPs for the most recent 10-year period: • Standby MDP FTR≤1H failure probability • Normally running MDP FTR failure rate • Standby MDP unavailability • Normally running MDP total unreliability (8-hour mission) • Standby MDP frequency of FTR≤1H events (failures per reactor year) • Normally running MDP frequency of FTR events.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Motor Driven Pumps 1998–2022

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of motor-driven pumps (MDPs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2022 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The MDP failure modes considered for standby systems are fail to start (FTS), fail to run (FTR) for one hour of operation (FTR=1H), FTR after one hour of operation (FTR>1H), and for normally running systems FTS and FTR. An eight-hour unreliability estimate is also calculated and trended. The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. The following increasing trends were identified for MDPs for the most recent 10-year period: (1) Standby MDP frequency of start demands (demands per reactor year), (2) Standby MDP frequency of FTR=1H hours (hours per reactor year), (3) Standby MDP frequency of FTR>1H hours, and (4) Normally running MDP frequency of run hours. The following decreasing trends were identified for MDPs for the most recent 10-year period: (1) Standby MDP FTR=1H failure probability, (2) Normally running MDP FTR failure rate, (3) Standby MDP unavailability, (4) Standby MDP total unreliability (8-hour mission), and (5) Normally running MDP total unreliability (8-hour mission).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

QM Investigation of Rare Earth Ion Interactions with First Hydration Shell Waters and Protein-Based Coordination Models

Here, conventional methods for extracting rare earth metals (REMs) from mined mineral ores are inefficient, expensive, and environmentally damaging. Recent discovery of lanmodulin (LanM), a protein that coordinates REMs with high-affinity and selectivity over competing ions, provides inspiration for new REM refinement methods. Here, we used quantum mechanical (QM) methods to investigate trivalent lanthanide cation (Ln 3+ ) interactions with coordination systems representing bulk solvent water and protein binding sites. Energy decomposition analysis (EDA) showed differences in the energetic components of Ln 3+ interaction with representatives of solvent (water, H 2 O) and protein binding sites (acetate, CH 3 COO – ), highlighting the importance of accurate description of electrostatics and polarization in computational modeling of REM interactions with biological and bioinspired molecules. Relative binding free energies were obtained for Ln 3+ with coordination complexes originating from binding sites in PDB structures of a lanthanum binding peptide (PDB entry 7CCO) and LanM, with explicit consideration of the first hydration shell waters, according to quasi-chemical theory (QCT). Beyond the first shell, the bulk solvent environment was represented with an implicit continuum model. Ln 3+ interactions with (H 2 O) 9 and both binding site models became more favorable, moving down the periodic series. This trend was more pronounced with the protein binding site models than with water, resulting in affinity increasing with periodic number, except for the last REM, Lu 3+ , which bound less favorably than the preceding element, Yb 3+ . Using the truncated 7CCO binding site model, the magnitude and trend of the experimental Ln 3+ relative binding free energies for the whole 7CCO peptide were reproduced. Conversely, the previously reported experimental data for LanM show a preference for the earlier lanthanides; this is likely due to longer-range interactions and cooperative effects, which are not represented by the reduced models. Using the truncated 7CCO binding site model, the magnitude and trend of the experimental Ln 3+ relative binding free energies for the whole 7CCO peptide were reproduced. In contrast to the previously reported experimental data for LanM, the peptide preferentially binds the earlier lanthanides. This difference likely arises due to longer-range interactions and cooperative effects not represented by the peptide. Further investigation of Ln 3+ interactions with whole proteins using polarizable molecular mechanics models with explicit solvent is warranted to understand the influence of longer-ranged interactions, cooperativity, and bulk solvent. Nevertheless, the present work provides new insights into Ln 3+ interactions with biomolecules and presents an effective computational platform for designing specific single-site REM binding peptides more efficiently.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

System Study: Auxiliary Feedwater 1998-2020

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system at 69 U.S. commercial nuclear reactors. Demand, run hour, and failure data from calendar year 1998–2020 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS), formerly the INPO Consolidated Events Database (ICES). The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. Statistically significant decreasing trends were identified in the industry-wide estimates of AFW system start-only unreliability and AFW system 8-hour mission unreliability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗