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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2

A copula-based Bayesian method for probabilistic solar power forecasting

With increased penetration of solar energy sources, solar power forecasting has become more crucial and challenging. This paper proposes a copula-based Bayesian approach to improve probabilistic solar power forecasting by capturing the joint distribution between solar power and ambient temperature. A prior forecast distribution is first obtained using different underlying point forecasting models. Parametric and empirical copulas of solar power and temperature are then developed to update the prior distribution to the posterior forecast distribution. A public solar power database is used to demonstrate effectiveness of the proposed method. Numerical results show that the copula-based Bayesian method outperforms the forecasting method that directly uses temperature as a feature. The Bayesian method is also compared with persistent models and show improved performance. Furthermore, this article includes supplementary material (data and code) for reproducibility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Half-ice, half-fire-driven ultranarrow phase crossover in one-dimensional decorated 𝑞-state Potts ferrimagnets: An AI-co-led exploration

OpenAI’s reasoning model o3-mini-high was used to carry out an exact analytic study of one-dimensional ferrimagnetic site- and bond-decorated 𝑞-state Potts models. We demonstrate that the finite-temperature ultranarrow phase crossover (UNPC), driven by a hidden “half-ice, half-fire” state recently discovered in the 𝑞=2 case (Ising model), persists for 𝑞>2. Moreover, we identify unique features for 𝑞>2, including the dome structure in the field-temperature phase diagram, and for large 𝑞 a secondary high-temperature UNPC to the fully disordered paramagnetic state. As the UNPC quickly approaches a genuine transition by enhancing 𝐽, the interaction between the backbone spins, two distinct behaviors emerge: In the site-decorated Potts model, 𝑇 0 is independent of 𝐽 and thus remains unchanged (Type-I UNPC), and in the bond-decorated Potts model with 𝑞>2, 𝑇 0 depends on 𝐽 and quickly shifts toward a finite temperature as 𝐽 increases (Type-II UNPC). These results establish a versatile framework for engineering controlled fast state-flipping switches in low-dimensional systems. Our nine-dan artificial intelligence (AI)-contribution framework assigns AI the meritorious status of AI-co-led discovery in this work.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Luttinger liquid phase in the Aubry-André Hubbard chain

We study the interplay between an on-site Hubbard repulsion and quasiperiodic potential in one-dimensional fermion chains using the density matrix renormalization group. We find that, at half-filling, the quasiperiodic potential can destroy the Mott gap, leading to a metallic Luttinger liquid phase between the gapped Mott insulator at strong repulsion and localized gapless Aubry- André insulator at strong quasiperiodic potential. Away from half-filing, the metallic phase of the interacting model persists to larger critical strengths of the potential than in the non-interacting case, suggesting interaction-stabilized delocalization at finite doping. Here, we characterize the Luttinger liquid through its charge and spin correlations, structure factors, and entanglement entropy.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Southern Ocean Aerosols Field Campaign Report

Atmospheric processes over the Southern Ocean have a profound influence on regional and global climate. This is a part of the world where global climate models perform particularly poorly, with models persistently overpredicting the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface (Regayre et al. 2020). A major challenge when trying to improve the representation of atmospheric processes in this part of the globe is the scarcity of observations capable of constraining our understanding. During 2024/25 a U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility field campaign (CAPE-k) deployed a suite of instrumentation at the kennaook/Cape Grim atmospheric monitoring station in Tasmania, Australia to provide detailed cloud-aerosol observations in this region in order to address the greatest source of uncertainty in climate models – atmospheric aerosols and how they influence cloud formation (Carslaw et al. 2013). In support of the ARM observations, an Australian Research Council (ARC)-funded project “Southern Ocean aerosols: sources, sinks and impact on cloud properties,” led by the Queensland University of Technology, complemented the ARM measurements with a suite of chemical measurements at the kennaook/Cape Grim site in northwestern Tasmania to provide more information on the processes controlling aerosol formation and growth. The deployment of the University of York LIF-SO2 instrument (Temple et al. 2025) in the ARM mobile facility container was part of this chemistry-focused deployment. Increased observational efforts are critical for understanding sources and sinks of Southern Ocean aerosols, in particular the role of marine micro-organisms (phytoplankton, algae) on aerosols formation, their properties and growth, cloud droplet formation, and the conversion of cloud droplets to ice crystals and precipitation. The observational focus of the ARC-funded project is aerosol chemical composition and their gaseous precursors. The remote nature of the Southern Ocean poses a significant analytical challenge when studying gaseous precursors, as low concentrations are often below the limits of detection of commercial instrumentation. Historically this has meant that observations have had to be time-averaged over days to weeks to achieve the limits of detection required. Although useful when considering overall average levels of aerosol precursors, this time-averaging obscures temporal variability that can provide insight into the controlling processes. Over recent years advances in analytical techniques have made high-time-resolution measurements of key gas-phase aerosol precursors achievable with sufficiently low limits of detection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis Persistence through Inhibition of the Trehalose Catalytic Shift

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), is the leading cause of death worldwide by infectious disease. Treatment of Mtb infection requires a six-month course of multiple antibiotics, an extremely challenging regimen necessitated by Mtb’s ability to form drug-tolerant persister cells. Mtb persister formation is dependent on the trehalose catalytic shift, a stress-responsive metabolic remodeling mechanism in which the disaccharide trehalose is liberated from cell surface glycolipids and repurposed as an internal carbon source to meet energy and redox demands. Here, using a biofilm-persister model, metabolomics, and cryo-electron microscopy (EM), we found that azidodeoxy- and aminodeoxy-d-trehalose analogues block the Mtb trehalose catalytic shift through inhibition of trehalose synthase TreS (Rv0126), which catalyzes the isomerization of trehalose to maltose. Out of a focused eight-member compound panel constructed by chemoenzymatic synthesis, the natural product 2-trehalosamine exhibited the highest potency and significantly potentiated first- and second-line TB drugs in broth culture and macrophage infection assays. We also report the first structure of TreS bound to a substrate analogue inhibitor, obtained via cryo-EM, which revealed conformational changes likely essential for catalysis and inhibitor binding that can potentially be exploited for future therapeutic development. Our results demonstrate that inhibition of the trehalose catalytic shift is a viable strategy to target Mtb persisters and advance trehalose analogues as tools and potential adjunctive therapeutics for investigating and targeting mycobacterial persistence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Application of passive vortex generators to enhance vertical mixing in an open raceway pond

A novel use of vortex generators in a raceway pond is described here, with the flow field quantitatively simulated using computational fluid dynamics using the large eddy simulation turbulence model. Persistence lengths of the swirling motion generated by the vortex generators indicate that significant vertical mixing can be achieved by placing vortex generators in the straight section opposite the paddle wheel, downstream of the first hairpin bend. Relatively simple vortex generators are capable of creating stronger swirling motions that persist for a longer distance than those created by the paddle wheel. For optimal performance, vortex generators are positioned side by side but in opposite directions, and their diameters should be equal to or slightly less than the desired liquid depth. The optimal length of a 0.18 m diameter vortex generator in a 0.2 m deep pond was determined to be 0.3 m. As a result, it has been demonstrated that a longer persistence length is achieved by inducing a swirling motion with its rotational axis parallel to the primary flow direction.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Use of physics to improve solar forecast: Part III, impacts of different cloud types

Cloud-type impacts present a great challenge to solar forecasting due to diverse and complex cloud-radiation interactions. This third part of our paper sequence seeks to address this challenge by quantifying the forecast accuracies under eight cloud types: cumulus (Cu), stratified clouds (St), altocumulus (Ac), altostratus (As), cirrostratus/anvil (Cr), cirrus (Ci), congestus (Co), deep convective clouds (Dc) across four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I. To generalize the cloud impacts, the eight cloud types are further grouped into three cloud categories based on their common features: weak convective clouds, stratiform clouds, and strong convective clouds. Here, the decade-long (2001 ~ 2014) collocated measurements of irradiances and cloud types at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program South Great Plain (SGP) Central Facility site are used for model evaluation. Results reveal a clear performance hierarchy for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI): best for weak convective clouds and cirrus, intermediate for stratiform clouds, and worst for strong convective clouds. Performance for diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) is less influenced by cloud types. Cloud albedo dominates all three irradiances for Dc, while both cloud albedo and cloud fraction are influential for other cloud types. A 12 %~33 % improvement in accuracy at 6-hour lead time compared to the benchmark smart model confirms the effectiveness of incorporating physics into the models for various cloud types; further improvements are expected by directly integrating cloud type information into forecasting models by modifying the physical formulation of cloud-radiation interaction, and/or using more advanced machine learning models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Interpretation of high-harmonic fast-wave propagation in the scrape-off layer of NSTX-U as a geometrically bounded-waveguide mode

This paper revisits the onset of high-harmonic fast-wave (HHFW) propagation in the scrape-off layer (SOL) plasma of the NSTX/NSTX-U spherical tokamak, motivated by past HHFW heating and current drive experiments and modelling. Previously, the fast-wave propagation in the SOL was correlated with the opening (suppression) of the fast-wave right-hand cutoff layer in front of the antenna. In this work, the SOL propagation is interpreted as a geometric waveguide mode guided by the SOL geometry, whose radial width can be comparable to the wave’s perpendicular wavelength in the HHFW regime. A two-dimensional circular model is first employed using full-wave solvers to characterise the poloidal eigenmode structures and to clarify their relationship to annulus resonance. By progressively adding a tokamak-like magnetic-field configuration, starting from a uniform axial field, the effects of magnetic-field gradients and pitch on the SOL waveguide mode are characterised. The poloidal mode numbers supported by the SOL plasma agree well with analytic estimates, indicating that an anisotropic plasma in a bounded geometry selectively supports and amplifies the resonant poloidal mode number. Additionally, two-dimensional axisymmetric NSTX-U simulations demonstrate that the SOL eigenmode features identified in the circular model persist in the experimentally relevant configurations. A control approach based on lengthening the wave perpendicular wavelength relative to the SOL width, including a higher magnetic (B)-field operation, is discussed. The analysis here shows the key role of a bounded geometry in interpreting HHFW eigenmode coupling and propagation in the NSTX-U SOL plasma.

plasma heating↗

Exact time-dependent density-functional theory for nonperturbative dynamics of the helium atom

By inverting the time-dependent Kohn-Sham equation for a numerically exact dynamics of the helium atom, we show that the dynamical step and peak features of the exact correlation potential found previously in one-dimensional models persist for real three-dimensional systems. We demonstrate that the Kohn-Sham and true current-densities differ by a rotational component. The results have direct implications for approximate TDDFT calculations of atoms and molecules in strong fields, emphasizing the need to go beyond the adiabatic approximation, and highlighting caution in quantitative use of the Kohn-Sham current.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Advanced Solar and Load Forecasting Incorporating HD Sky Imaging (Phase III)

Due to rapidly changing sky conditions, the available solar irradiance for energy generation is subject to wide swings in amplitude. As the market penetration of solar energy continues to increase rapidly, these variations in solar power generation are beginning to have an impact on grid stability and increased wear on power switches. Solar power forecasting plays a critical role in operations for Independent System Operators (ISOs) and utilities. Accurate forecasts help maintain grid reliability, optimize generation from renewables, and reduce operating costs. Of particular interest to the ISOs and utilities are sudden changes in solar irradiance, termed “ramp events,” due to the movement of clouds. One significant impact of ramp events on the grid is additional ancillary service requirements necessary to manage such variability. Ramp events can also cause voltage fluctuations in the distribution grids and trigger actions of automated line equipment (e.g., tap changers), leading to additional maintenance costs. In high penetration solar regions, forecasts must be made for both transmission-connected and distribution-connected resources – either behind the meter or in front of it. Particularly for distributed solar energy resources, forecasting can be a challenge due to the lack of visibility of the energy resource. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has been working towards nowcasting Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) using low-cost technologies for several years now. The Solar NowCasting technology being developed by BNL is a 0 – 30 min solar “nowcasting” technology applicable to a scale covering both large generating facilities and residential, distributed solar installations that relies on a network of ground-based high-definition (HD) cameras and surface pyranometers. GHI forecasts are being produced for both regions using 8 ground-based HD cameras and at least 2 surface pyranometers. When stitched together, the camera images can be used to forecast the impact of clouds on available solar irradiance over a domain of ~50 km 2 . Phase I of the project was the engineering scale up conceptual design stage. Phase II was the initial field test and demonstration, in which the technology was scaled up by a factor of 20 times and successfully demonstrated in eastern Long Island. In Phase III, an additional forecasting network was added in upstate NY and both networks are currently being operated until at least a full year of data is gathered by the Albany network to allow for the collection of sufficient data to evaluate performance against the persistence and smart persistence models using the Solar Arbiter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

HTS Dipole Magnet Model for the Persistent Current Operation

Recent advances in the fabrication of high-temperature superconducting (HTS) coils allow the design of superconducting accelerator magnets that work in a persistent current mode. Many various, rather low-field magnets in particle accelerators operate in the DC current mode. Fermilab designed, fabricated, and tested an HTS dipole magnet model that has 20-mm air gap and a magnetic field up to 0.5 T. The magnet has a primary copper coil that for a short period pumps the energy in the short-circuited secondary HTS coil. Here, the current paper presents the design, fabrication, and testing of this magnet at liquid-nitrogen temperature.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Double Aperture HTS Dipole Magnet Model for the Persistent Current Operation

Particle accelerators use many different types of magnets. There is an interest in replacing rather low-field conventional resistive magnets with high-temperature superconducting (HTS) magnets. The main goal is to reduce operational expenses, which is critical during the continuously increasing cost of electricity. At Fermilab, several HTS accelerator magnets were built and successfully tested. The paper described a variant of the double-aperture dipole magnet that could be suitable for future Lepton Colliders. A single short-circuited HTS coil of 3.8 kA generates a homogeneous magnetic field of 57 mT in both magnet gaps of 84 mm. The short model magnet was designed, built, and successfully tested at liquid nitrogen temperature. This magnet works in a persistent current mode, which provides additional cost savings when used in particle storage rings operated at a stable magnetic field. The results of design, fabrication, and tests are presented and discussed. The magnet demonstrated a high magnetic field stability in both apertures, efficiency of correction coils, and primary powering circuit.

Kashikhin, Vladimir [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000017249↗

Stochastic Price Generation for Evaluating Wholesale Electricity Market Bidding Strategies

This work presents a novel method for generating electricity price scenarios from statistical properties of past electricity prices using a hybrid statistical and reduced-form stochastic model. Previous work in applying stochastic differential equations (SDE) to model electricity prices has focused on daily average prices. To extend stochastic price generation methods to hourly or sub-hourly pricing, we address several weaknesses in the state-of-the-art: (1) we replace the mean-reversion component of the SDE with an ARIMA process that is better able to characterize the daily and weekly trends; (2) we extend the price-spike, or jump process to account for conditional probabilities of price spikes occurring in consecutive time steps by replacing the traditional Poisson process for modeling jumps with a generalized point process model inspired by brain neuron models; and (3) we replace the traditional method of estimating spike intensity with empirical variance with a Markov process based on observed price spike intensity transitions. The method is demonstrated with electricity prices from the US ERCOT market and a use-case example is provided for bidding an energy storage unit into the day-ahead and real-time energy markets of ERCOT using stochastic optimization methods. Results show that the the synthetic price model out performs a (naive) persistence forecast model by resulting in 24% to 47% more in profits over 168 simulated days.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Persistent, extensive channelized drainage modeled beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica

Abstract. Subglacial hydrology is a leading control on basal friction and the dynamics of glaciers and ice sheets. At low discharge, subglacial water flows through high-pressure, sheet-like systems that lead to low effective pressures. However, at high discharge, subglacial water melts the overlying ice into localized channels that efficiently remove water from the bed, thereby increasing effective pressure and basal friction. Recent observations suggest channelized subglacial flow exists beneath Thwaites Glacier, yet it remains unclear if stable channelization is feasible in West Antarctica, where surface melting is nonexistent and water at the bed is limited. Here, we use the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model to run a suite of over 130 subglacial hydrology simulations of Thwaites Glacier across a wide range of physical parameter choices to assess the likelihood of channelization. We then narrow our range of viable simulations by comparing modeled water thicknesses to previously observed radar specularity content, which indicates flat, spatially extensive water bodies at the bed. In all of our data-compatible simulations, stable channels reliably form within 100–200 km of the grounding line and reach individual discharge rates of 35–110 m3 s−1 at the ice–ocean boundary. While only one to two channels typically form across the 200 km width of the glacier in our simulations, their high efficiency drains water across the entire lateral extent of the glacier. We posit the large catchment size of Thwaites Glacier, its funnel-like geometry, and high basal melt rates together accumulate enough water to form stable channels. No simulations resembled observed specularity content when channelization was disabled. Our results suggest channelized subglacial hydrology has two consequences for Thwaites Glacier dynamics: (i) amplifying submarine melting of the terminus and ice shelf while (ii) simultaneously raising effective pressure within 100 km of the grounding line and increasing basal friction. The distribution of effective pressure implied from our modeling differs from parameterizations typically used in large-scale ice sheet models, suggesting the development of more process-based parameterizations may be necessary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Shift Happens: Building Robust AI Models with Domain Adaptation

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing physics research—from probing the large-scale structure of the Universe to modeling subatomic interactions and fundamental forces. Yet, a major challenge persists: AI models trained on simulations or old experiment / astronomical survey often perform poorly when applied to new data—exposing issues of dataset (domain) shift, model robustness, and uncertainty in predictions. This summer school session will introduce students to common challenges in applying AI across domains and present solutions based on domain adaptation—a set of techniques designed to improve model generalization under domain shift. We will cover foundational ideas, practical strategies, and current research frontiers in this area. Through examples in astrophysics, we'll explore how domain adaptation can help bridge the gap between synthetic and real-world data, improve trust in model outputs, and advance scientific discovery. The concepts discussed are broadly applicable across physics and other scientific disciplines, making this a valuable topic for anyone interested in building robust, transferable AI models for science.

Ciprijanovic, A. [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000031281719↗

AI in Astrophysics: Tackling Domain Shift, Model Robustness and Uncertainty

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing physics research from probing the large-scale structure of the Universe to modeling subatomic interactions and fundamental forces. Yet, a major challenge persists: AI models trained on simulations or old experiment / astronomical survey often perform poorly when applied to new data exposing issues of dataset (domain) shift, model robustness, and uncertainty in predictions. This talk will introduce common challenges in applying AI across domains and present solutions based on domain adaptation a set of techniques designed to improve model generalization under domain shift. We will cover foundational ideas, practical strategies, and current research frontiers in this area. Through examples in astrophysics, we'll explore how domain adaptation can help bridge the gap between synthetic and real-world data, improve trust in model outputs, and advance scientific discovery.

Ciprijanvoic, Aleksandra [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000↗

Perspective on identifying and characterizing the processes controlling iron speciation and residence time at the atmosphere-ocean interface

It is well recognized that the atmospheric deposition of iron (Fe) affects ocean productivity, atmospheric CO 2 uptake, ecosystem diversity, and overall climate. Despite significant advances in measurement techniques and modeling efforts, discrepancies persist between observations and models that hinder accurate predictions of processes and their global effects. Here, we provide an assessment report on where the current state of knowledge is and where future research emphasis would have the highest impact in furthering the field of Fe atmosphere-ocean biogeochemical cycle. These results were determined through consensus reached by diverse researchers from the oceanographic and atmospheric science communities with backgrounds in laboratory and in situ measurements, modeling, and remote sensing. We discuss i) novel measurement methodologies and instrumentation that allow detection and speciation of different forms and oxidation states of Fe in deliquesced mineral aerosol, cloud/rainwater, and seawater; ii) oceanic models that treat Fe cycling with several external sources and sinks, dissolved, colloidal, particulate, inorganic, and organic ligand-complexed forms of Fe, as well as Fe in detritus and phytoplankton; and iii) atmospheric models that consider natural and anthropogenic sources of Fe, mobilization of Fe in mineral aerosols due to the dissolution of Fe-oxides and Fe-substituted aluminosilicates through proton-promoted, organic ligand-promoted, and photo-reductive mechanisms. In addition, the study identifies existing challenges and disconnects (both fundamental and methodological) such as i) inconsistencies in Fe nomenclature and the definition of bioavailable Fe between oceanic and atmospheric disciplines, and ii) the lack of characterization of the processes controlling Fe speciation and residence time at the atmosphere-ocean interface. Such challenges are undoubtedly caused by extremely low concentrations, short lifetime, and the myriad of physical, (photo)chemical, and biological processes affecting global biogeochemical cycling of Fe. However, we also argue that the historical division (separate treatment of Fe biogeochemistry in oceanic and atmospheric disciplines) and the classical funding structures (that often create obstacles for transdisciplinary collaboration) are also hampering the advancement of knowledge in the field. Finally, the study provides some specific ideas and guidelines for laboratory studies, field measurements, and modeling research required for improved characterization of global biogeochemical cycling of Fe in relationship with other trace elements and essential nutrients. In conclusion, the report is intended to aid scientists in their work related to Fe biogeochemistry as well as program managers at the relevant funding agencies

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) Field Campaign Report

General circulation models and downscaled regional models exhibit persistent biases in deep convective initiation location and timing, cloud top height, stratiform area and precipitation fraction, and anvil coverage (e.g., Del Genio 2012, Del Genio et al. 2012, Hohenegger and Stevens 2013, Song et al. 2013). Despite important impacts on the distribution of atmospheric heating, moistening, momentum, and precipitation (e.g., Hartmann et al. 1984, Fritsch et al. 1986, Houze 1989, 2004, Donner et al. 2001, Del Genio and Kovari 2002, Schumacher et al. 2004, Nesbitt et al. 2006, Storelvmo 2012), nearly all climate models fail to represent mesoscale convective organization (Del Genio 2012), while system evolution is not represented at all (Ovchinnikov et al. 2006). Recent advances in cumulus parameterization coupled with increasing model resolution have improved predictions, but even relatively higher-resolution models without parameterized deep convection have some persistent kinematic and microphysical biases (e.g., Blossey et al. 2007, Matsui et al. 2009, Luo et al. 2010, Lang et al. 2011, Varble et al. 2011, Fridlind et al. 2012, Hagos et al. 2014, Varble et al. 2014a-b, Fan et al. 2017, Stanford et al. 2017, Han et al. 2019). To improve representation of convective systems in models requires adequate characterization of their predictability as a function of environmental conditions. Because of the significant sensitivities of deep convective initiation, intensity, lifetime, propagation, and mesoscale convective organization to many factors including multi-scale atmospheric circulations, ambient environmental stability, humidity, wind distributions, and cloud microphysical processes, this characterization relies on comprehensively observing many cases of convective initiation, non-initiation, organization, and non-organization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗