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Long Term Evolution of Planetary Systems with a Terrestrial Planet and a Giant Planet

We study the long term orbital evolution of a terrestrial planet under the gravitational perturbations of a giant planet. In particular, we are interested in situations where the two planets are in the same plane and are relatively close. We examine both possible configurations: the giant planet orbit being either outside or inside the orbit of the smaller planet. The perturbing potential is expanded to high orders and an analytical solution of the terrestrial planetary orbit is derived. The analytical estimates are then compared against results from the numerical integration of the full equations of motion and we find that the analytical solution works reasonably well. An interesting finding is that the new analytical estimates improve greatly the predictions for the timescales of the orbital evolution of the terrestrial planet compared to an octupole order expansion. Finally, we briefly discuss possible applications of the analytical estimates in astrophysical problems.

Dynamical evolution↗

Occurrence of earth-like bodies in planetary systems

Present theories of terrestrial planet formation predict the rapid 'runaway formation' of planetary embryos. The sizes of the embryos increase with heliocentric distance. These embryos then emerge to form planets. In earlier Monte Carlo simulations of the merger of these embryos it was assumed that embryos did not form in the asteroid belt, but this assumption may not be valid. Simulations in which runaways were allowed to form in the asteroid belt show that, although the initial distributions of mass, energy, and angular momentum are different from those observed today, during the growth of the planets these distributions spontaneously evolve toward those observed, simply as a result of known solar system processes. Even when a large planet analogous to 'Jupiter' does not form, an earth-sized planet is almost always found near earth's heliocentric distance. These results suggest that occurrence of earthlike planets may be a common feature of planetary systems.

Wetherill, George W.↗

The Search for Young Planetary Systems And the Evolution of Young Stars

The Space Interferometer Mission (SIM) will provide a census of planetary systems by con- ducting a broad survey of 2,000 stars that will be sensitive to the presence of planets with masses as small as approx. 15 Earth masses (1 Uranus mass) and a deep survey of approx. 250 of the nearest, stars with a mass limit of approx.3 Earth masses. The broad survey will include stars spanning a wide range of ages, spectral types, metallicity, and other important parameters. Within this larger context, the Young Stars and Planets Key Project will study approx. 200 stars with ages from 1 Myr to 100 Myr to understand the formation and dynamical evolution of gas giant planets. The SIM Young Stars and Planets Project will investigate both the frequency of giant planet formation and the early dynamical history of planetary systems. We will gain insight into how common the basic architecture of our solar system is compared with recently discovered systems with close-in giant planets by examining 200 of the nearest (less than 150 pc) and youngest (1-100 Myr) solar-type stars for planets. The sensitivity of the survey for stars located 140 pc away is shown in the planet mass-separation plane. We expect to find anywhere from 10 (assuming that only the presently known fraction of stars. 5-7%, has planets) to 200 (all young stars have planets) planetary systems. W-e have set our sensitivity threshold to ensure the detection of Jupiter-mass planets in the critical orbital range of 1 to 5 AU. These observations, when combined with the results of planetary searches of mature stars, will allow us to test theories of planetary formation and early solar system evolution. By searching for planets around pre-main sequence stars carefully selected to span an age range from 1 to 100 Myr, we will learn a t what epoch and with what frequency giant planets are found at the water-ice snowline where they are expected to form. This will provide insight into the physical mechanisms by which planets form and migrate from their place of birth, and about their survival rate. With these data in hand, we will provide data, for the first time, on such important questions as: What processes affect the formation and dynamical evolution of planets? When and where do planets form? What is initial mass distribution of planetary systems around young stars? How might planets be destroyed? What is the origin of the eccentricity of planetary orbits? What is the origin of the apparent dearth of companion objects between planets and brown dwarfs seen in mature stars? The observational strategy is a compromise between the desire to extend the planetary mass function as low as possible and the essential need to build up sufficient statistics on planetary occurrence. About half of the sample will be used to address the "where" and "when" of planet formation. We will study classical T Tauri stars (cTTs) which have massive accretion disks and post- accretion, weak-lined T Tauri stars (wTTs). Preliminary estimates suggest the sample will consist of approx. 30% cTTs and approx. 70% wTTs, driven in part by the difficulty of making accurate astrometric measurements toward objects with strong variability or prominent disks.

Beichman, Charles A.↗

NASA's Terrestrial Planet Finder Missions

NASA has decided to move forward with two complementary Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF) missions, a visible coronagraph and an infrared formation flying interferometer. These missions are major missions in the NASA Office of Space Science Origins Theme. The primary science objectives of the TPF missions are to search for, detect, and characterize planets and planetary systems beyond our own Solar System, including specifically Earth-like planets.

Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF)↗

WISE Detections of Dust in the Habitable Zones of Planet-Bearing Stars

We use data from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) all-sky release to explore the incidence of warm dust in the habitable zones around exoplanet-host stars. Dust emission at 12 and/or 22 microns (T(sub dust) approx.300 and/or approx.150 K) traces events in the terrestrial planet zones; its existence implies replenishment by evaporation of comets or collisions of asteroids, possibly stirred by larger planets. Of the 591 planetary systems (728 extrasolar planets) in the Exoplanet Encyclopedia as of 2012 January 31, 350 are robustly detected by WISE at > or = 5(sigma) level. We perform detailed photosphere subtraction using tools developed for Spitzer data and visually inspect all the WISE images to confirm bona fide point sources. We find nine planet-bearing stars show dust excess emission at 12 and/or 22 microns at > or = 3(sigma) level around young, main-sequence, or evolved giant stars. Overall, our results yield an excess incidence of approx.2.6% for stars of all evolutionary stages, but approx.1% for planetary debris disks around main-sequence stars. Besides recovering previously known warm systems, we identify one new excess candidate around the young star UScoCTIO 108.

Morales, Farisa Y.↗

A Machine Learns to Predict the Stability of Highly Diverse Multi-planetary Systems

Machine learning has proven to be an invaluable tool for characterizing the stability of planets in simplified planetary systems. In this work, we investigate the performance of a machine learning classifier on tightlypacked systems containing a rich diversity of planets, from Earths to Jupiters. Using information derived from short numerical simulations about a planet’s early orbital evolution and its relationship with the most massive planets in the system, we train a random forest classifier to predict instability with a > 88 percent accuracy. Our classifier relies on relative planet masses and the standard deviation of eccentricity for much of its predictive power. Most misclassified planets lie along a multi-dimensional boundary between stable and unstable planets, indicating that their early orbital evolution is ambiguous. The major reason for misclassification in this work is timescale: because our classifier uses information from only the first 137 years of simulation data, it is blind to late time interactions that cause or prevent instability. Machine learning methods like those utilized in this work provide powerful tools to complement numerical simulations across a wide range of planetary architectures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Kepler Planet Formation

Kepler has vastly increased our knowledge of planets and planetary systems located close to stars. The new data shows surprising results for planetary abundances, planetary spacings and the distribution of planets on a mass-radius diagram. The implications of these results for theories of planet formation will be discussed.

planetary abundances↗

Mercury-T: A New Code to Study Tidally Evolving Multi-Planet Systems. Applications to Kepler-62

A large proportion of observed planetary systems contain several planets in a compact orbital configuration, and often harbor at least one close-in object. These systems are then most likely tidally evolving. We investigate how the effects of planet-planet interactions influence the tidal evolution of planets. We introduce for that purpose a new open-source addition to the Mercury N-body code, Mercury-T, which takes into account tides, general relativity and the effect of rotation-induced flattening in order to simulate the dynamical and tidal evolution of multi-planet systems. It uses a standard equilibrium tidal model, the constant time lag model. Besides, the evolution of the radius of several host bodies has been implemented (brown dwarfs, M-dwarfs of mass 0:1 M(sub ⨀), Sun-like stars, Jupiter). We validate the new code by comparing its output for one-planet systems to the secular equations results. We find that this code does respect the conservation of total angular momentum. We applied this new tool to the planetary system Kepler-62. We find that tides influence the stability of the system in some cases. We also show that while the four inner planets of the systems are likely to have slow rotation rates and small obliquities, the fifth planet could have a fast rotation rate and a high obliquity. This means that the two habitable zone planets of this system, Kepler-62e ad f are likely to have very different climate features, and this of course would influence their potential at hosting surface liquid water..

Dynamical evolution and stability↗

Occultation studies of the solar system

Occultations of stars by planets, satellites, planetary ring systems, asteroids, and comets provide valuable opportunities to probe the Solar System in ways otherwise impossible from the surface of the earth. For example, one can precisely measure the size and shape of objects which are much too small to be resolved directly, accurately map the structure and transparency of ring systems, and detect the faintest trace of an atmosphere. In this investigation, researchers identify upcoming occultations through wide-ranging computer searches, provide accurate predictions for the more important events, and observe selected occultations with our specially designed portable photometric equipment. During the past year, researchers produced accurate predictions for an occultation of AG+40 degrees 0783 by 324 Bamberga on 8 December 1987 and coordinated efforts to observe this event. The occultation was successfully observed at 13 sites including two manned by Lowell Observatory astronomers.

Millis, Robert L.↗

Occultation studies of the solar system

Occultations of stars by planets, satellites, planetary ring systems, and asteroids offer opportunities to study the occulting bodies in ways not otherwise possible from the surface of the Earth. For example, one can detect even an extremely tenuous atmosphere and can measure the temperature and density profiles of the atmosphere in regions not ordinarily sampled by spacecraft. Occultations also permit direct measurement of the size and shape of solar system objects too small to be directly resolved by groundbased telescopes. The accuracy of such determinations is typically 1-2 percent and, moreover, is independent of the distance to the object. In this investigation, upcoming occultations through wide-ranging computer searches are identified, and accurate predictions for the more important events are provided. Selected occultations are observed with specially designed portable photometric equipment.

Millis, Robert L.↗

Microscale Processes Determining Macroscale Evolution of Magnetic Flux Tubes along Earth’s Magnetopause

An important process affecting solar wind-Earth’s magnetosphere coupling is non-steady dayside magnetic reconnection, observationally evidenced by a flux-transfer-event (FTE) that shows a bipolar variation of the magnetic field component normal to the magnetopause. FTEs often consist of two interlinked flux tubes, but, local kinetic processes between the flux tubes are not understood in the context of the FTE structuring, evolution, and impact. An FTE observed by MMS on 18 December 2017 consisted of two flux tubes of different topology. One includes field lines with ends connected to the northern and southern hemispheres while the other includes field lines with both ends connected to the magnetosheath. Reconnection occurring at the flux-tube interface indicates how interacting flux tubes evolve into a flux rope with helical magnetic topology that is either closed or open. This study demonstrates a new aspect of how micro-to meso-scale dynamics occurring within FTEs determines their macroscale characteristics and evolution.

Solar-terrestrial interactions↗

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) is a three-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the modeling of atmospheres of solar system and exoplanetary terrestrial planets. Its parent model, known as ModelE2, is used to simulate modern Earth and near-term paleo-Earth climates. ROCKE-3D is an ongoing effort to expand the capabilities of ModelE2 to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including higher and lower atmospheric pressures, more diverse chemistries and compositions, larger and smaller planet radii and gravity, different rotation rates (from slower to more rapid than modern Earth's, including synchronous rotation), diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. The first aim of ROCKE-3D is to model planetary atmospheres on terrestrial worlds within the solar system such as paleo-Earth, modern and paleo-Mars, paleo-Venus, and Saturn's moon Titan. By validating the model for a broad range of temperatures, pressures, and atmospheric constituents, we can then further expand its capabilities to those exoplanetary rocky worlds that have been discovered in the past, as well as those to be discovered in the future. We also discuss the current and near-future capabilities of ROCKE-3D as a community model for studying planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres.

Astrobiology↗

Self-calibrating the look-elsewhere effect: fast evaluation of the statistical significance using peak heights

In experiments where one searches a large parameter space for an anomaly, one often finds many spurious noise-induced peaks in the likelihood. This is known as the look-elsewhere effect, and must be corrected for when performing statistical analysis. Here, this paper introduces a method to calibrate the false alarm probability (FAP), or p-value, for a given dataset by considering the heights of the highest peaks in the likelihood. Specifically, we derive an equation relating the global p-value to the rank and height of local maxima. In the simplest form of self-calibration, the look-elsewhere-corrected $\chi^2$ of a physical peak is approximated by the $\chi^2$ of the peak minus the $\chi^2$ of the highest noise-induced peak, with accuracy improved by considering lower peaks. In contrast to alternative methods, this approach has negligible computational cost as peaks in the likelihood are a byproduct of every peak-search analysis. We apply to examples from astronomy, including planet detection, periodograms, and cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Astronomic Telescope Facility: Preliminary systems definition study report. Volume 2: Technical description

The Astrometric Telescope Facility (AFT) is to be an earth-orbiting facility designed specifically to measure the change in relative position of stars. The primary science investigation for the facility will be the search for planets and planetary systems outside the solar system. In addition the facility will support astrophysics investigations dealing with the location or motions of stars. The science objective and facility capabilities for astrophysics investigations are discussed.

Sobeck, Charlie↗

The symbiosis of photometry and radial-velocity measurements

The FRESIP mission is optimized to detect the inner planets of a planetary system. According to the current paradigm of planet formation, these planets will probably be small Earth-sized objects. Ground-based radial-velocity programs now have the sensitivity to detect Jovian-mass planets in orbit around bright solar-type stars. We expect the more massive planets to form in the outer regions of a proto-stellar nebula. These two types of measurements will very nicely complement each other, as they have highest detection probability for very different types of planets. The combination of FRESIP photometry and ground-based spectra will provide independent confirmation of the existence of planetary systems in orbit around other stars. Such detection of both terrestrial and Jovian planets in orbit around the same star is essential to test our understanding of planet formation.

Cochran, William D.↗

Origins of the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona

The roots of the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory (LPL) extend deep into the rich fabric of G. P. Kuiper's view of the Earth as a planet and planetary systems as expected companions to most stars, as well as the post-war emergent technology of infrared detectors suitable for astronomy. These concepts and events began with Kuiper's theoretical work at Yerkes Observatory on the origin of the Solar System, his discovery of two planetary satellites and observational work with his near-infrared spectrometer on the then-new McDonald 82-inch telescope in the mid- to late-1940s. A grant for the production of a photographic atlas of the Moon in the mid-1950s enabled him to assemble the best existing images of the Moon and acquire new photographs. This brought E. A. Whitaker and D. W. G. Arthur to Yerkes. Others who joined in the lunar work were geologist Carl S. Huzzen and grad student E. P. Moore, as well as undergrad summer students A. B. Binder and D. P. Cruikshank (both in 1958). The Atlas was published in 1959, and work began on an orthographic lunar atlas. Kuiper's view of planetary science as an interdisciplinary enterprise encompassing astronomy, geology, and atmospheric physics inspired his vision of a research institution and an academic curriculum tuned to the combination of all the scientific disciplines embraced in a comprehensive study of the planets. Arrangements were made with the University of Arizona (UA) to establish LPL in affiliation with the widely recognized Inst. of Atmospheric Physics. Kuiper moved to the UA in late 1960, taking the lunar experts, graduate student T. C. Owen (planetary atmospheres), and associate B. M. Middlehurst along. G. van Biesbroeck also joined the migration to Tucson; Binder and Cruikshank followed along as new grad students. Astronomy grad student W. K. Hartmann came into the academic program at UA and the research group at LPL in 1961. Senior faculty affiliating with LPL in the earliest years were T. Gehrels, A. B. Meinel, H. L. Johnson, and F. J. Low, each with their own grad students and associates. Work began on IR spectroscopy and a rectified lunar atlas. Kuiper and Johnson started the search for future observatory sites in N. America and Hawaii.

Planets↗

Climates of Warm Earth-Like Planets. I. 3D Model Simulations

We present a large ensemble of simulations of an Earth-like world with increasing insolation and rotation rate. Unlike previous work utilizing idealized aquaplanet congurations we focus our simulations on modern Earth-like topography. The orbital period is the same as modern Earth, but with zero obliquity and eccentricity. The atmosphere is 1 bar N2-dominated with CO2=400 ppmv and CH4=1 ppmv. The simulations include two types of oceans; one without ocean heat transport (OHT) between grid cells as has been commonly used in the exoplanet literature, while the other is a fully coupled dynamic bathtub type ocean. The dynamical regime transitions that occur as day length increases induce climate feedbacks producing cooler temperatures, rst via the reduction of water vapor with increasing rotation period despite decreasing shortwave cooling by clouds, and then via decreasing water vapor and increasing shortwave cloud cooling, except at the highest insolations. Simulations without OHT are more sensitive to insolation changes for fast rotations while slower rotations are relatively insensitive to ocean choice. OHT runs with faster rotations tend to be similar with gyres transporting heat poleward making them warmer than those without OHT. For slower rotations OHT is directed equator-ward and no high latitude gyres are apparent. Uncertainties in cloud parameterization preclude a precise determination of habitability but do not a affect robust aspects of exoplanet climate sensitivity. This is the first paper in a series that will investigate aspects of habitability in the simulations presented herein. The datasets from this study are open source and publicly available.

Planetary systems↗