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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Influence of an Internally-Generated QBO on Modeled Stratospheric Dynamics and Ozone

A GEOS V2 CCM simulation with an internally generated quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal is compared to an otherwise identical simulation without a QBO. In a present-day climate, inclusion of the modeled QBO makes a significant difference to stratospheric dynamics and ozone throughout the year. The QBO enhances variability in the tropics, as expected, but also in the polar stratosphere in some seasons. The modeled QBO also affects the mean stratospheric climate. Because tropical zonal winds in the baseline simulation are generally easterly, there is a relative increase in zonal wind magnitudes in tropical lower and middle stratosphere in the QBO simulation. Extra-tropical differences between the QBO and 'no QBO' simulations thus reflect a bias toward the westerly phase of the QBO: a relative strengthening and poleward shifting the polar stratospheric jets, and a reduction in Arctic lower stratospheric ozone.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

CMIP5 Historical Simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2

Observations of climate change during the CMIP5 extended historical period (1850-2012) are compared to trends simulated by six versions of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2 Earth System Model. The six models are constructed from three versions of the ModelE2 atmospheric general circulation model, distinguished by their treatment of atmospheric composition and the aerosol indirect effect, combined with two ocean general circulation models, HYCOM and Russell. Forcings that perturb the model climate during the historical period are described. Five-member ensemble averages from each of the six versions of ModelE2 simulate trends of surface air temperature, atmospheric temperature, sea ice and ocean heat content that are in general agreement with observed trends, although simulated warming is slightly excessive within the past decade. Only simulations that include increasing concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases match the warming observed during the twentieth century. Differences in twentieth-century warming among the six model versions can be attributed to differences in climate sensitivity, aerosol and ozone forcing, and heat uptake by the deep ocean. Coupled models with HYCOM export less heat to the deep ocean, associated with reduced surface warming in regions of deepwater formation, but greater warming elsewhere at high latitudes along with reduced sea ice. All ensembles show twentieth-century annular trends toward reduced surface pressure at southern high latitudes and a poleward shift of the midlatitude westerlies, consistent with observations.

ocean heat content↗
NASA NTRS2015

Climate Variability Drives Plankton Community Composition Changes: the 2010-2011 El Nino to La Nina Transition Around Australia

The strong La Nina of 2010-2011 provided an opportunity to investigate the ecological impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on coastal plankton communities using the nine national reference stations around Australia. Based on remote sensing and across the entire Australian region 2011 (La Nina) was only modestly different from 2010 (El Nino) with the average temperature declining 0.2 percent surface chlorophyll a up 3 percent and modelled primary production down 14 percent. Other changes included a poleward shift in Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus. Along the east coast, there was a reduction in salinity, increase in nutrients, Chlorophytes and Prasinophytes (taxa with chlorophyll b, neoxanthin and prasinoxanthin). The southwest region had a rise in the proportion of 19-hexoyloxyfucoxanthin; possibly coccolithophorids in eddies of the Leeuwin Current and along the sub-tropical front. Pennate diatoms increased, Ceratium spp. decreased and Scrippsiella spp. increased in 2011. Zooplankton biomass declined significantly in 2011. There was a reduction in the abundance of Calocalanus pavo and Temora turbinata and increases in Clausocalanus farrani, Oncaea scottodicarloi and Macrosetella gracilis in 2011. The changes in the plankton community during the strong La Nina of 2011 suggest that this climatic oscillation exacerbates the tropicalization of Australia.

phytoplankton↗
NASA NTRS2016

Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

Human influence on climate↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Large-Scale Current System During Auroral Substorms

We present an empirical model of the equivalent current system in the ionosphere during the peak of a classical bulge-type auroral sub storm. This model is derived from measurements made by ~110 ground magnetometer stations during 116 substorms. The data are temporally and spatially organized using global auroral images obtained by the Polar Visible Imaging System Earth Camera. The empirical equivalent current system displays three key features: a poleward shift of the westward electrojet connecting the postmidnight and premidnight components; a polar cap swirl; and significantly different magnitudes of the postmidnight and premidnight westward electrojets. This leads us to propose a two-wedge current system linking the ionosphere to the magnetosphere. The bulge current wedge is located in the premidnight region just equatorward of the open-closed field line boundary while another three-dimensional current system is located in the postmidnight region well within the auroral oval. We use Biot and Savart calculations and Tsyganenko mapping and show that this new model is a likely solution for the large-scale current system.

magnetic storms↗
NASA NTRS2017

Multi-Model Impacts of Climate Change on Pollution Transport from Global Emission Source Regions

The impacts of climate change on tropospheric transport, diagnosed from a carbon monoxide (CO)-like tracer species emitted from global CO sources, are evaluated from an ensemble of four chemistry-climate model (CCMs) contributing to the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Model time-slice simulations for present-day and end of the 21st century conditions were performed under the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) climate scenario RCP 8.5. All simulations reveal a strong seasonality in transport, especially over the tropics. The highest CO-tracer mixing ratios aloft occur during boreal winter when strong vertical transport is co-located with biomass burning emission source regions. A consistent and robust decrease in future CO-tracer mixing ratios throughout most of the troposphere, especially in the tropics, and an increase around the tropopause is found across the four CCMs in both winter and summer. Decreases in CO-tracer mixing ratios in the tropical troposphere are associated with reduced convective mass fluxes in this region, which in turn may reflect a weaker Hadley Cell circulation in the future climate. Increases in CO-tracer mixing ratios near the tropopause are largely attributable to a rise in tropopause height, although a poleward shift in the midlatitude jets may also play an important role in the extra-tropical upper troposphere. An increase in CO-tracer mixing ratios also occurs near the Equator, centred over EquatorialCentral Africa, extending from the surface to the mid troposphere which is most likely related to localised decreases in convection in the vicinity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, resulting in larger CO-tracer mixing ratios over biomass burning regions and smaller mixing ratios downwind.

Tropospheric Transport↗
NASA NTRS2019

Eddy Compensation Dampens Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Response to Westerly Wind Trends

Anthropogenic influences have led to a strengthening and poleward shift of westerly winds over the Southern Ocean (SO), especially during austral summer. We use observations, an idealized eddy‐resolving ocean‐sea ice channel model, and a global coupled model to explore the SO response to a step‐change in westerly winds. Previous work hypothesized a two timescale response for sea surface temperature. Initially, Ekman transport cools the surface before sustained upwelling causes warming on decadal timescales. The fast response is robust across our models and the observations: we find Ekman‐driven cooling in the mixed layer, mixing‐driven warming below the mixed layer, and a small upwelling‐driven warming at the temperature inversion. The long‐term response is inaccessible from observations. Neither of our models shows a persistent upwelling anomaly, or long‐term, upwelling‐driven subsurface warming. Mesoscale eddies act to oppose the anomalous wind‐driven upwelling, through a process known as eddy compensation, thereby preventing long‐term warming.

Southern Annular Mode↗
NASA NTRS2021

The 2019 Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Weakening and Its Impacts

This study offers an overview of the low-frequency (i.e., monthly to seasonal) evolution, dynamics, predictability, and surface impacts of a rare Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming that occurred in austral spring 2019. Between late August to mid- September 2019, the stratospheric circumpolar westerly jet weakened rapidly, and Antarctic stratospheric temperatures rose dramatically. The deceleration of the vortex at 10 hPa was as drastic as that of the first ever observed major sudden stratospheric warming in the SH during 2002, while the mean Antarctic warming over the course of spring 2019 broke the previous record of 2002 by ~50% in the mid-stratosphere. This event was preceded by a poleward shift of the SH polar night jet in the uppermost stratosphere in early winter, which was then followed by record-strong planetary wave-one activity propagating upward from the troposphere in August that acted to dramatically weaken the polar vortex throughout the depth of the stratosphere. The weakened vortex winds and elevated temperatures moved downward to the surface from mid-October to December, promoting a record strong swing of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) to its negative phase. This record-negative SAM appeared to be a primary driver of the extreme hot and dry conditions over subtropical eastern Australia that accompanied the severe wildfires that occurred in late spring 2019. State-of-the-art dynamical seasonal forecast systems skillfully predicted the significant vortex weakening of spring 2019 and subsequent development of negative SAM from as early as late July.

Antarctic Oscillation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Antarctic Stratospheric Warming and its Impacts in 2019

We explore the mechanism, predictability and hemispheric-wide surface impacts of a rare stratospheric warming that occurred above Antarctica during austral spring (September to November) 2019, using the Japanese 55-year reanalysis set for the period 1979-2019. From late August to mid-September, the stratospheric polar vortex suddenly weakened, and the stratospheric temperatures dramatically rose over the Antarctic polar cap. The deceleration of the vortex observed at 10 hPa was as drastic as that of the first ever observed major sudden stratospheric warming in the SH during 2002, while the mean warming in the mid-stratosphere (~30hPa) over the course of spring 2019 broke the previous record of 2002 by ~50%. The key mechanism for this event was a poleward shift of the polar night jet near the stratopause during mid-winter and subsequent record strong planetary wavenumber-one activity propagating from the troposphere in August, which acted to dramatically weaken the polar vortex. The easterly wind anomalies and positive temperature anomalies moved downward to the surface during October to December, causing the index polarity of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) to become record-negative for the season. The record negative SAM played a key role in inducing significant local climate extremes over eastern Australia, southern New Zealand, eastern South America and western Patagonia. Especially, the strong negative SAM was the key driver of the extreme hot and dry conditions over subtropical eastern Australia in late spring 2019 that, in turn, were conducive for the severe wildfires that occurred during that time. State-of-the-art dynamical sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems skilfully predicted the upward propagating wavenumber-one activity in August, the significant vortex weakening of austral spring 2019, and subsequent development of negative SAM from late July.

Eun-Pa Lim↗
NASA NTRS2022

Indian Ocean warming as key driver of long-term positive trend of Arctic Oscillation

Arctic oscillation (AO), which is the most dominant atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the boreal winter, significantly affects the weather and climate at mid-to-high latitudes in the NH. Although a climate community has focused on a negative trend of AO in recent decades, the significant positive trend of AO over the last 60 years has not yet been thoroughly discussed. By analyzing reanalysis and Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP) datasets with novel pacemaker experiments, we found that sea surface temperature warming in the Indian Ocean is conducive to the positive trend of AO from the late 1950s. The momentum flux convergence by stationary waves due to the Indian Ocean warming plays an important role in the positive trend of AO, which is characterized by a poleward shift of zonal-mean zonal winds. In addition, the reduced upward propagating wave activity flux over the North Pacific due to Indian Ocean warming also plays a role to strengthen the polar vortex, subsequently, it contributes to the positive trend of AO. Our results imply that the respective warming trend of tropical ocean basins including Indian Ocean, which is either anthropogenic forcing or natural variability or their combined effect, should be considered to correctly project the future AO’s trend.

Indian Ocean↗
NASA NTRS2022

Prescribing Stratospheric Chemistry Overestimates Southern Hemisphere Climate Change During Austral Spring in Response to Quadrupled CO2

The interaction of stratospheric chemistry with a changing climate from an abrupt CO2 quadrupling is assessed using the coupled atmosphere–ocean Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Two abrupt 4 × CO2 experiments were performed, one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with a prescribed stratospheric chemistry that does not simulate stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. The interactive and prescribed chemistry experiments simulate similar global mean surface temperature change. Nevertheless, interactive chemistry is critical to capture the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric midlatitude jet response to 4 × CO2. When stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2 is neglected, GEOSCCM overestimates Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation change. This stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact has large seasonal variability. During the austral spring season September–October–November (SON), prescribed chemistry yields a stronger poleward shift and intensification of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude tropospheric jet, surface wind stress, and the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation than occurs with interactive chemistry. In other seasons interactive and prescribed chemistry have similar effects on the Southern Hemisphere circulation. The seasonality of stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact is related to the seasonality of Antarctic lower stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. In contrast to this stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2, stratospheric ozone recovery from decline of the ozone depleting substances has its largest impact on the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation in austral summer (December–January–February), but no effects in SON. It is found that the different seasonality for these two stratospheric ozone layer change scenarios is related to the different seasonality of tropopause meridional temperature gradient response.

Stratospheric ozone feedback↗
NASA NTRS2016

Midlatitude Cloud Shifts, Their Primary Link to the Hadley Cell, and Their Diverse Radiative Effects

We investigate the interannual relationship among clouds, their radiative effects, and two key indices of the atmospheric circulation: the latitudinal positions of the Hadley cell edge and the midlatitude jet. From reanalysis data and satellite observations, we find a clear and consistent relationship between the width of the Hadley cell and the high cloud field, statistically significant in nearly all regions and seasons. In contrast, shifts of the midlatitude jet correlate significantly with high cloud shifts only in the North Atlantic region during the winter season. While in that region and season poleward high cloud shifts are associated with shortwave radiative warming, over the Southern Oceans during all seasons they are associated with shortwave radiative cooling. Finally, a trend analysis reveals that poleward high cloud shifts observed over the 1983-2009 period are more likely related to Hadley cell expansion, rather than poleward shifts of the midlatitude jets.

Satellite observatioin↗
NASA NTRS2004

Climate Response to the Increase in Tropospheric Ozone since Preindustrial Times: A Comparison between Ozone and Equivalent CO2 Forcings

We examine the characteristics of the climate response to anthropogenic changes in tropospheric ozone. Using a general circulation model, we have carried out a pair of equilibrium climate simulations with realistic present-day and preindustrial ozone distributions. We find that the instantaneous radiative forcing of 0.49 W m(sup -2) due to the increase in tropospheric ozone since preindustrial times results in an increase in global mean surface temperature of 0.28 C. The increase is nearly 0.4 C in the Northern Hemisphere and about 0.2 C in the Southern Hemisphere. The largest increases (greater than 0.8 C) are downwind of Europe and Asia and over the North American interior in summer. In the lower stratosphere, global mean temperatures decrease by about 0.2 C due to the diminished upward flux of radiation at 9.6 micrometers. The largest stratospheric cooling, up to 1.0 C, occurs over high northern latitudes in winter, with possibly important implications for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds. To identify the characteristics of climate forcing unique to tropospheric ozone, we have conducted two additional climate equilibrium simulations: one in which preindustrial tropospheric ozone concentrations were increased everywhere by 18 ppb, producing the same global radiative forcing as present-day ozone but without the heterogeneity; and one in which CO2 was decreased by 25 ppm relative to present day, with ozone at present-day values, to again produce the same global radiative forcing but with the spectral signature of CO2 rather than ozone. In the first simulation (uniform increase of ozone), the global mean surface temperature increases by 0.25 C, with an interhemispheric difference of only 0.03 C, as compared with nearly 0.2 C for the heterogeneous ozone increase. In the second simulation (equivalent CO2), the global mean surface temperature increases by 0.36 C, 30% higher than the increase from tropospheric ozone. The stronger surface warming from CO2 is in part because CO2 forcing (obscured by water vapor) is shifted relatively poleward where the positive ice-albedo feedback amplifies the climate response and in part because the magnitude of the CO2 forcing in the mid-troposphere is double that of ozone. However, we find that CO2 is far less effective than tropospheric ozone in driving lower stratospheric cooling at high northern latitudes in winter.

Mickley L. J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Ionospheric Convection in the Postnoon Auroral Oval: SuperDARN and Polar UVI Observations

Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) observations, ultraviolet imaging from the Polar satellite (UVI), and particle precipitation data from DMSP satellites have been used to investigate the electrodynamics of the postnoon auroral oval in the Northern hemisphere. We show that: (1) For negative IMF By, the convection reversal (CR) was co-located with the maximum of auroral luminosity, but during positive IMF By the convection reversal was poleward of the auroral oval up to several degrees in latitude; (2) Postnoon auroral oval was associated with a large-scale upward field-aligned current (FAC) of the order of 6x10(exp -7). A m(exp -2) in magnitude (the FAC was inferred from the SuperDARN and UVI data). For negative IMF By, maximum of the auroral intensity coincides in latitude with the maximum of the upward field-aligned current. However, for positive IMF By. the maximum of the upward FAC was shifted to the poleward edge of the auroral oval; (3) In response to the IMF By turning from positive to negative, the maximum of the auroral luminosity did not change its position noticeably, but the position of the convection reversal changed considerably from 80-81 degs to about 76 degs MLAT, and the maximum of FAC moved from 77-78 degs to about 76 degs MLAT. Thus, after IMF By turns negative, both the FAC maximum and CR tend to coincide with the auroral maximum; (4) The IMF Bz positive deflection was followed by a decrease in both field-aligned current intensity and auroral luminosity. However, the decrease in the auroral luminosity lags behind the FAC decrease by about 12 min. Firstly, these observations allow us to suggest that the IMF By-related electric field can penetrate into the closed magnetosphere and produce convection and FAC changes in the region of the postnoon auroral oval. Secondly, we suggest that the interchange instability is a promising mechanism for the postnoon auroras.

Kozlovsky, A.↗
NASA NTRS1978

The latitudinal distributions of auroral zone electric fields and ground magnetic perturbations and their response to variations in the interplanetary magnetic field

Measurements of the latitudinal distributions of electric fields obtained with the Chatanika, Alaska, incoherent radar have been employed in determining the influence of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) on the electric field pattern. Poleward (or equatorward) shifts produced by the northward (or southward) transitions of the IMF north-south component are given particular attention. The behavior of the electric field patterns and magnetic perturbations in the midnight sector during substorms near the Harang discontinuity is analyzed.

Horwitz, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Global QBO in circulation and ozone. Part 2: A simple mechanistic model

Although the phenomenon of equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation is relatively well understood, the problem of how the equatorially confined quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) wave forcing can induce a signal in the extratropics of comparable or larger magnitude remains unsolved. A simple mechanistic model is constructed to provide a quantitative test of the hypothesis that the phenomenon of extratropical QBO is mainly caused by an anomalous seasonal circulation induced by an anomalous Eliassen-Palm (E-P) flux divergence. The anomaly in E-P flux divergence may be caused in turn by the relative poleward and downward shift of the region of irreversible mixing (breaking) of the extratropical planetary waves during the easterly phase of the equatorial QBO as compared to its westerly phase. The hemispheric nature of the anomaly wave forcing in solstice seasons (viz., no wave breaking in the summer hemisphere) induces a global circulation anomaly that projects predominantly into the first few zonal Hough modes of Plumb. Such a global QBO circulation pattern, although difficult to measure directly, is reflected in the distribution of stratospheric tracers transported by it. Our model produces a global pattern of QBO anomaly in column ozone that appears to account for much of the unfiltered interannual variability in the column ozone observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) instrument aboard the Nimbus satellite. Furthermore, the model produces the characteristic spectrum of the observation with peaks at periods of 20 and 30 months.

Tung, K. K.↗
NASA NTRS1977

The response of the dayside aurora to sharp northward and southward transitions of the interplanetary magnetic field and to magnetospheric substorms

Latitudinal shifts of the discrete dayside aurora are examined with respect to variations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and to magnetospheric substorms. Within 10-15 min after steplike southward (northward) transitions in the IMF the dayside auroral oval moves equatorward (poleward). In at least some cases the auroral shift is similar to an exponential relaxation in latitude from an initial to a final steady state value; for these cases the average exponential time constant is estimated to be 17 min. Substorm features in the dayside aurora include (1) an equatorward shift by 1-3 deg of the equatorward discrete auroral boundary, (2) a brightening of the discrete aurora near substorm onset, (3) the formation of multiple auroral bands, and (4) poleward motion of short-lived individual auroral arcs occurring nearly coincident in time with the equatorward boundary shifts, the average poleward velocity of these arcs being approximately 800 m/s.

Horwitz, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Effect of Dust on the Martian Polar Vortices

The influence of atmospheric dust on the dynamics and stability of the martian polar vortices is examined, through analysis of Mars Climate Sounder observations and MarsWRF general circulation model simulations. We show that regional and global dust storms produce transient vortex warming events that partially or fully disrupt the northern winter polar vortex for brief periods. Increased atmospheric dust heating alters the Hadley circulation and shifts the downwelling branch of the circulation poleward, leading to a disruption of the polar vortex for a period of days to weeks. Through our simulations, we find this effect is dependent on the atmospheric heating rate, which can be changed by increasing the amount of dust in the atmosphere or by altering the dust optical properties (e.g., single scattering albedo). Despite this, our simulations show that some level of atmospheric dust is necessary to produce a distinct northern hemisphere winter polar vortex.

Guzewich, Scott D.↗