Empirical Evaluation of Local Search Methods for Adapting Planning Policies in a Stochastic Environment
Optimization of expected values in a stochastic domain is common in real world applications.
Stochastic Environment Empirical Evaluation Local ↗
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A New Approach to Evaluate and Reduce Uncertainty of Model-Based Biodiversity Projections for Conservation Policy Formulation
Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this article, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities.
Bonnie J E Myers↗
New developments in NASA quality assurance
The purpose of this talk is to examine and discuss NASA's basic quality concept, the policy and procedures which define and implement this concept and subsequently explore the NASA-Industry quality relationships which are essential to the success of NASA's quality assurance concept. It is important to emphasize that NASA's Quality Assurance program is predicated on the concept of an individually tailored quality program for each significant NASA procurement - particularly, large space systems. As a result, NASA's Quality Assurance program - to be effective - must be responsive to various technologies, hardware systems, and space missions. In addition, the program must be responsive to changing policies and practices in research, engineering and procurement. Key issues in the NASA-Contractor quality relationships in the framework of an over all NASA-Industry partnership include: (1) the necessity for NASA to effectively discharge its responsibility for providing clear and complete definition of quality requirements at all phases of the procurement cycle; (2) the right of the contractor to expect an explicit definition of NASA quality requirements in each RFP and contract and to request same if it is not provided; (3) the necessity for the contractor to have a dynamic and responsive quality program which is directed towards assuring that the hardware meets all technical requirements and to accomplish this in an effective and efficient manner; and (4) the critical need for investigation and study of the economic aspects of quality and an evaluation of our policies and practices based upon the results of such a study.
Condon, John E.↗
Asymptotic solution for solar electric low thrust orbit raising with eclipse penalty
This paper describes an analytic solution for the solar electric low thrust orbit raising problem derived by application of the two-variable asymptotic expansion method. Included in the formulation are the effects of (1) high initial eccentricity, (2) large change of inclination, (3) variable mass, and (4) earth shadow penalty including the rotation of the shadow axis relative to the osculating orbit. An advantage of this mathematical strategy is that the effects of various steering policies can be evaluated readily from a physical point of view.
Flandro, G. A.↗
Space Shuttle development
The technical-planning and decision-making processes involved in the initiation of the NASA Space Shuttle program in 1970-1972 are briefly discussed, responding to the critical evaluation of Logsdon (1986). The complex nature of the interactions among White House, OMB, DOD, and NASA; the difficulty of making long-term commitments under the U.S. system; the positive technological achievements of the program; and the need for unemotional evaluation of the policy options available after the loss of the Challenger are stressed. In a reply by Logsdon, it is argued that the structuring of the policy process itself and the presentation of the Shuttle to Congress as a relatively inexpensive routine launch system for virtually all government needs were directly related to its failure to gain continuing full funding from Administrations and Congress. It is suggested that a strong proposal of bold scientific and exploratory objectives for the space program could be more successful in gaining such long-term support.
Fletcher, J. C.↗
The Conference Proceedings of the 1998 Air Transport Research Group (ATRG) of the WCTR Society
Thirteen papers (presentations) from the 8th World Conference on Transportation Research are presented. Topics include European Airline competition, cost analyses, performance evaluations, deregulation; aviation policy in Southeast Asia; corporate involvement in European business transportation; and cycles in the airline industry.
Oum, Tae Hoon↗
Design Implications for Aerocapture Systems Placing Flagship-class Uranus Orbiters
Aerocapture has the capability to deliver spacecraft to Ice Giant orbits while increasing on-orbit payload mass. Due to the aerodynamic forces and heat loads encountered during an aerocapture maneuver, the spacecraft must be contained by an entry vehicle, such as a typical rigid aeroshell used for planetary entry. This paper provides a preliminary design concept for an aerocapture system capable of delivering a flagship-class orbiter and planetary probe to Uranus orbit using heritage flight systems. The constraints of packaging large subsystems (radioisotope power systems, high gain antennas) and their effect on final aerocapture system design will be discussed. Mass properties will be presented for the system, with mass risks evaluated by margin policy implemented using standard mass properties control.
Andrew Gomez-Delrio↗
Coal gasification systems engineering and analysis, volume 2
The major design related features of each generic plant system were characterized in a catalog. Based on the catalog and requirements data, approximately 17 designs and cost estimates were developed for MBG and alternate products. A series of generic trade studies was conducted to support all of the design studies. A set of cost and programmatic analyses were conducted to supplement the designs. The cost methodology employed for the design and sensitivity studies was documented and implemented in a computer program. Plant design and construction schedules were developed for the K-T, Texaco, and B&W MBG plant designs. A generic work breakdown structure was prepared, based on the K-T design, to coincide with TVA's planned management approach. An extensive set of cost sensitivity analyses was completed for K-T, Texaco, and B&W design. Product price competitiveness was evaluated for MBG and the alternate products. A draft management policy and procedures manual was evaluated. A supporting technology development plan was developed to address high technology risk issues. The issues were identified and ranked in terms of importance and tractability, and a plan developed for obtaining data or developing technology required to mitigate the risk.
Source record↗
Understanding Climate Policy Data Needs. NASA Carbon Monitoring System Briefing: Characterizing Flux Uncertainty, Washington D.C., 11 January 2012
Climate policy in the United States is currently guided by public-private partnerships and actions at the local and state levels. This mitigation strategy is made up of programs that focus on energy efficiency, renewable energy, agricultural practices and implementation of technologies to reduce greenhouse gases. How will policy makers know if these strategies are working, particularly at the scales at which they are being implemented? The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) will provide information on carbon dioxide fluxes derived from observations of earth's land, ocean and atmosphere used in state of the art models describing their interactions. This new modeling system could be used to assess the impact of specific policy interventions on CO2 reductions, enabling an iterative, results-oriented policy process. In January of 2012, the CMS team held a meeting with carbon policy and decision makers in Washington DC to describe the developing modeling system to policy makers. The NASA CMS will develop pilot studies to provide information across a range of spatial scales, consider carbon storage in biomass, and improve measures of the atmospheric distribution of carbon dioxide. The pilot involves multiple institutions (four NASA centers as well as several universities) and over 20 scientists in its work. This pilot study will generate CO2 flux maps for two years using observational constraints in NASA's state-of -the-art models. Bottom-up surface flux estimates will be computed using data-constrained land and ocean models; comparison of the different techniques will provide some knowledge of uncertainty in these estimates. Ensembles of atmospheric carbon distributions will be computed using an atmospheric general circulation model (GEOS-5), with perturbations to the surface fluxes and to transport. Top-down flux estimates will be computed from observed atmospheric CO2 distributions (ACOS/GOSAT retrievals) alongside the forward-model fields, in conjunction with an inverse approach based on the CO2 model of GEOS ]Chem. The forward model ensembles will be used to build understanding of relationships among surface flux perturbations, transport uncertainty and atmospheric carbon concentration. This will help construct uncertainty estimates and information on the true spatial resolution of the top-down flux calculations. The relationship between the top-down and bottom-up flux distributions will be documented. Because the goal of NASA CMS is to be policy relevant, the scientists involved in the flux modeling pilot need to understand and be focused on the needs of the climate policy and decision making community. If policy makers are to use CMS products, they must be aware of the modeling effort and begin to design policies that can be evaluated with information. Improving estimates of carbon sequestered in forests, for example, will require information on the spatial variability of forest biomass that is far more explicit than is presently possible using only ground observations. Carbon mitigation policies being implemented by cities around the United States could be designed with the CMS data in mind, enabling sequential evaluation and subsequent improvements in incentives, structures and programs. The success of climate mitigation programs being implemented in the United States today will hang on the depth of the relationship between scientists and their policy and decision making counterparts. Ensuring that there is two-way communication between data providers and users is important for the success both of the policies and the scientific products meant to support them..
Brown, Molly E.↗
Generating and evaluating alternate schedules
The demand for and availability of Space Network resources are subject to short-term fluctuations and long-term changes. Generation of acceptable schedules under changing demand and resource availability will require the use of different scheduling policies. This paper identifies several such scheduling policies. It defines metrics for evaluating schedules using the criteria directly related to these scheduling policies. Then it applies the metrics to compare several schedules generated for a scenario representative of 1998 SN demand and resources. Finally, the paper describes a method for using these metrics to evaluate schedules based on multiple criteria.
Reddy, Surender D.↗
Program of Policy Studies in Science and Technology, supplement to seven year review
The activities of the Program of Policy Studies are described and evaluated. Awards, seminars, publications are included along with student researcher profiles, graduate program in science, technology, and public policy, and a statement of program capability.
Mayo, L. H.↗
Program audit, A management tool
Program gives in-depth view of organizational performance at all levels of the management structure, and provides means by which managers can effectively and efficiently evaluate adequacy of management direction, policies, and procedures.
Miller, T. J.↗
Energy recovery from solid waste. Volume 1: Summary report
A systems analysis of energy recovery from solid waste which demonstrates the feasibility of several processes for converting solid waste to an energy form is presented. The social, legal, environmental, and political factors are considered and recommendations made in regard to legislation and policy. A technical and economic evaluation of available and developing energy-recovery processes is given with emphasis on thermal decomposition and biodegradation. A pyrolysis process is suggested. The use of prepared solid waste as a fuel supplemental to coal is considered to be the most economic process for recovery of energy from solid waste. Markets are discussed with suggestions for improving market conditions and for developing market stability. A decision procedure is given to aid a community in deciding on its options in dealing with solid waste.
Source record↗
Research on the applications of space technology
Communication satellites and technology transfer are discussed in seven individual reports. Topics cover: (1) NASA'S technological alternatives assuming that the orbit-spectrum resource will continue to be allocated to communication satellite service providers at zero price; (2) the economic aspects of orbit-spectrum allocation; (3) the cost structure of local distribution systems for satellite communication; (4) the economic basis for national science and technology policy; (5) the economics of the household economy; (6) government patent policy; and (7) screening and evaluation in information dissemination.
Source record↗
High definition systems in Japan
The successful implementation of a strategy to produce high-definition systems within the Japanese economy will favorably affect the fundamental competitiveness of Japan relative to the rest of the world. The development of an infrastructure necessary to support high-definition products and systems in that country involves major commitments of engineering resources, plants and equipment, educational programs and funding. The results of these efforts appear to affect virtually every aspect of the Japanese industrial complex. The results of assessments of the current progress of Japan toward the development of high-definition products and systems are presented. The assessments are based on the findings of a panel of U.S. experts made up of individuals from U.S. academia and industry, and derived from a study of the Japanese literature combined with visits to the primary relevant industrial laboratories and development agencies in Japan. Specific coverage includes an evaluation of progress in R&D for high-definition television (HDTV) displays that are evolving in Japan; high-definition standards and equipment development; Japanese intentions for the use of HDTV; economic evaluation of Japan's public policy initiatives in support of high-definition systems; management analysis of Japan's strategy of leverage with respect to high-definition products and systems.
Elkus, Richard J., Jr.↗
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project: Phase I Activities by a Global Community of Science
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) was founded in 2010. Its mission is to improve substantially the characterization of world food security as affected by climate variability and change, and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. The objectives of AgMIP are to: Incorporate state-of-the-art climate, crop/livestock, and agricultural economic model improvements into coordinated multi-model regional and global assessments of future climate impacts and adaptation and other key aspects of the food system. Utilize multiple models, scenarios, locations, crops/livestock, and participants to explore uncertainty and the impact of data and methodological choices. Collaborate with regional experts in agronomy, animal sciences, economics, and climate to build a strong basis for model applications, addressing key climate related questions and sustainable intensification farming systems. Improve scientific and adaptive capacity in modeling for major agricultural regions in the developing and developed world, with a focus on vulnerable regions. Improve agricultural data and enhance data-sharing based on their intercomparison and evaluation using best scientific practices. Develop modeling frameworks to identify and evaluate promising adaptation technologies and policies and to prioritize strategies.
farm crops↗
Program of policy studies in science and technology
The application of an interdisciplinary, problem-oriented capability to the performance of total social impact evaluations is discussed. The consequences of introducing new configurations, technological or otherwise into future social environments are presented. The primary characteristics of the program are summarized: (1) emphasis on interdisciplinary, problem-oriented analysis; (2) development of intra- and inter-institutional arrangements for the purpose of analyzing social problems, evaluating existing programs, and assessing the social impacts of prospective policies, programs, and other public actions; (3) focus on methodological approaches to the projection of alternative future social environments, the identification of the effects of the introduction of new policies, programs, or other actions into the social system, and the evaluation of the social impacts of such effects; (4) availability of analytical resources for advisory and research tasks, and provision for use of program facilities as a neutral forum for the discussion of public issues involving involving the impact of advancing technology on social value-institutional processes.
Mayo, L. H.↗
A simulation model for risk assessment of turbine wheels
A simulation model has been successfully developed to evaluate the risk of the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU) turbine wheels for a specific inspection policy. Besides being an effective tool for risk/reliability evaluation, the simulation model also allows the analyst to study the trade-offs between wheel reliability, wheel life, inspection interval, and rejection crack size. For example, in the APU application, sensitivity analysis results showed that the wheel life limit has the least effect on wheel reliability when compared to the effect of the inspection interval and the rejection crack size. In summary, the simulation model developed represents a flexible tool to predict turbine wheel reliability and study the risk under different inspection policies.
Safie, Fayssal M.↗