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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

An Evolutionary Algorithm to Personalize Stool-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening

Fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) is an established method for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Measured FIT-concentrations are associated with both present and future risk of CRC, and may be used for personalized screening. However, evaluation of personalized screening is computationally challenging. In this study, a broadly applicable algorithm is presented to efficiently optimize personalized screening policies that prescribe screening intervals and FIT-cutoffs, based on age and FIT-history. We present a mathematical framework for personalized screening policies and a bi-objective evolutionary algorithm that identifies policies with minimal costs and maximal health benefits. The algorithm is combined with an established microsimulation model (MISCAN-Colon), to accurately estimate the costs and benefits of generated policies, without restrictive Markov assumptions. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated in three experiments. In Experiment 1, a relatively small benchmark problem, the optimal policies were known. The algorithm approached the maximum feasible benefits with a relative difference of 0.007%. Experiment 2 optimized both intervals and cutoffs, Experiment 3 optimized cutoffs only. Optimal policies in both experiments are unknown. Compared to policies recently evaluated for the USPSTF, personalized screening increased health benefits up to 14 and 4.3%, for Experiments 2 and 3, respectively, without adding costs. Generated policies have several features concordant with current screening recommendations. The method presented in this paper is flexible and capable of optimizing personalized screening policies evaluated with computationally-intensive but established simulation models. It can be used to inform screening policies for CRC or other diseases. For CRC, more debate is needed on what features a policy needs to exhibit to make it suitable for implementation in practice.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the trade-offs of national municipal solid waste estimation methods for circular economy policy

Policies embracing circular economy concepts have taken hold in national legislation around the world. As the number of governments and organizations adopting circular economy policies increases, so does the need for accurate and timely measurement of material resource flows. Since many countries do not have access to centrally reported municipal solid waste (MSW) data, estimation and modeling are critical in evaluating circular economy policy effectiveness. The purpose of this paper is to examine three modeling approaches estimating national MSW data in the United States, including industry-based material flow analysis, waste-extended input-output modeling, and aggregated regional waste reporting. We establish five criteria to guide the analysis through the context of policy monitoring (data quality, flow totality, update frequency, sensitivity to disruption, and product granularity) and use these criteria to analyze and score each model. We then use a literature search to identify five, internationally-implemented options for circular economy policy and determine the data and modeling components that are most helpful in evaluating policy effectiveness. Finally, we provide a crosswalk of the model scores and policy needs to inform the suitability of model selection by policy type. We found that data quality and update frequency are identified as critical components for evaluating circular economy policies within the models evaluated, and can both be fulfilled by aggregated regional waste reporting. Flow totality, sensitivity to disruption, and product granularity requirements vary by both model and policy types. While none of the evaluated models satisfy the combination of requirements for any of the five policies, industry-based material flow analysis offers flow totality for extended producer responsibility, landfill bans, and recycling rate target policies that typically require it. Here, the waste-extended input-output model can provide disruption sensitivity and product granularity as needed for policies like minimum recycled content and market restrictions. Policy developers in areas where strong centralized data collection is not an option should design policy action(s) with modeling tradeoffs in mind, including the potential hybridization of modeling approaches that may provide the most accurate national MSW estimates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Policy and Regulatory Environment for Utility-Scale Energy Storage: Nepal

This report—Policy and Regulatory Environment for Utility-Scale Energy Storage: Nepal—is part of a series investigating the potential for utility-scale energy storage in South Asia. This report is the second in a series of country-specific evaluations of policy and regulatory environments for energy storage in the region. These evaluations apply the previously developed Energy Storage Readiness Assessment to evaluate the policy and regulatory environment for energy storage in Nepal. A similar assessment is already complete for India and a forthcoming report will expand this analysis to Bangladesh. These evaluations are designed to provide insights on the opportunities and barriers for energy storage growth and deployment in each country.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Policy Mullet: Good Intentions in the Front, Bad Policy in the Back

To achieve important policy goals like decarbonization, energy efficiency, and social justice, it is important to translate high-level policy into operational practice. Establishing sustainable purchasing goals has been one important part of this translation. However, not all sustainable purchasing policies are equally effective for organizations. In this study, we analyze sustainable purchasing policies collected from 30 public-sector organizations. We discuss a theoretical framework of optimal policy language and use that framework to evaluate the policies we collected. We believe that an ideal sustainable purchasing policy can increase the likelihood of implementation success by providing more product-specific guidance, giving authority to procurement staff, setting performance targets, and requiring reporting to account for progress. In our review of public sector sustainable purchasing policies, we found that policy language is less than ideal when measured against the framework. Based on our findings, we highlight the best practice language organizations can use in their sustainable purchasing policies to meet sustainability goals. While there is more work needed to inform best practices with sustainable purchasing policies, we recommend that organizations utilize existing frameworks when developing a sustainable purchasing policy to encourage better implementation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Framework for Readiness Assessments of Utility-Scale Energy Storage

This report is part of a series investigating the potential for utility-scale energy storage in South Asia. This Readiness Assessment Framework for Utility-Scale Energy Storage forms the basis for forthcoming country-specific evaluations of policy and regulatory environments for energy storage in the region, beginning with India. These evaluations provide insights on the opportunities and barriers for energy storage growth and deployment in each country. This report offers the overarching framework for these evaluations. It is designed to be allow policymakers and regulators to quickly gauge how well existing policy and regulatory frameworks support investments in energy storage and can be applied in any jurisdiction regardless of its governance, regulatory, or market structure. It is not designed to recommend specific policy or regulatory solutions and does not inform whether energy storage is the best solution, among a range of possible technical and non-technical interventions, to meet system needs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Policy and Regulatory Environment for Utility-Scale Energy Storage: India

This report is part of a series investigating the potential for utility-scale energy storage in South Asia. The first part of the work is focused on opportunities and barriers for energy storage within existing policy and regulatory frameworks in the region. This report applies the previously-developed Energy Storage Readiness Assessment to evaluate the policy and regulatory environment for energy storage in India. Forthcoming reports will expand this analysis to other countries in South Asia. These evaluations are designed to provide insights on the opportunities and barriers for energy storage growth and deployment in each country. The second part of this work consists of techno-economic analysis to understand the drivers of energy storage investments in South Asia. Using NREL’s power system planning and operational models of South Asia, this analysis will identify potential storage applications and growth under various cost, policy, and demand growth scenarios. In addition, the regulatory and policy barriers and incentive mechanisms identified in the first task will be incorporated into the modeling task to understand their impact on energy storage deployment and operation. Together these studies will inform the applications and value of energy storage on South Asia power systems and policy and regulatory pathways to realize this value.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Designing robust energy policy packages under deep uncertainty: A multi-metric decision support framework

The complexity of transitioning to sustainable energy systems requires policy frameworks capable of balancing multiple objectives while addressing deep uncertainty. However, existing approaches often lack systematic methods to identify combinations of policy levers that remain effective across a wide range of uncertain futures. This paper presents a novel decision support framework that guides the selection of robust policy packages based on their performance across multiple objectives under uncertainty. Our method leverages a large ensemble of scenarios and applies scenario discovery techniques to identify influential policy levers. Here, we introduce new indicators to assess the robustness of policies by evaluating their ability to mitigate adverse outcomes across metrics. These indicators support an iterative process to build a robust policy package. Finally, we map the technological and energy pathways associated with the robust policy package by leveraging an energy system optimization model. We illustrate the application of this framework to the Spanish energy system, providing insights into how specific combinations of policy levers shape decarbonization pathways under uncertainty.

Decision-support method↗
DOE OSTI2022

Policy, Regulatory, Legal, and Permitting Evaluation Task 6.0 (Technical Report)

This report revisits and updates work completed for the Phase I CarbonSAFE Illinois - East Sub Basin project, the precursor to the Phase II Wabash CarbonSAFE project; the current report summarizes the policy, regulatory, legal, and permitting considerations to-date as related to geologic CO 2 storage at the Wabash Valley Resources (WVR) gasification plant site in Vigo County, Indiana.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Trade and Climate Mitigation Interactions Create Agro–Economic Opportunities With Social and Environmental Trade–Offs in Latin America and the Caribbean

The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region plays key roles in both meeting global agricultural demands and maintaining carbon sinks due to its abundant land and water resources. In this study we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to evaluate the opportunities and challenges posed by two global-scale drivers: agricultural market integration (i.e., reduction of trade barriers) and land-based climate mitigation policy. We evaluate their potential individual and combined impacts on agricultural production and trade revenues across LAC’s economies through mid-century, as well as the resulting impacts on agricultural consumers and integrated land-water-climate systems across the region’s diverse sub-regions. Increased global market integration results in increased agricultural production and trade revenues for many LAC economies driven by their evolving comparative advantages. Climate mitigation measures on CO 2 and non-CO 2 greenhouse gases increase revenues due to increased agricultural prices from land competition and emissions abatement. The combined outcomes from both drivers are complex and sometimes non-linear, highlighting the importance of understanding the interactions between multiple drivers. Our results show that increased agricultural production and trade opportunities pose significant trade-offs that require careful multi-sectoral planning, such as emissions reduction challenges, potential loss of livestock production when pursuing land-based climate mitigation strategies, increased consumer expenditures, and changes in land-use or water withdrawals, resulting in deforestation or water scarcity pressures. There is considerable heterogeneity in economic and environmental outcomes across LAC sub-regions and agricultural commodities, illustrating the value of considering outcomes at finer scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Linkages between Policy and Business Innovation in the Development of China’s Energy Performance Contracting Market

China has a large and growing energy performance contracting (EPC) market, which has played a significant role in driving energy efficiency retrofits and improvements This paper evaluates how policies and business innovations have worked synergistically to expand China’s EPC market. We analyze the interconnected roles of four key factors: incentive policies, China’s Five-Year Plans, and business innovations in diversifying contract models and strengthening measurement and verification. We use multiple data sources for the analysis, including detailed information on business choices in 21 pilot projects, industry-wide surveys, and policy information. Our study indicates that supportive policies were important for the initial market development. As the market was established and continued to grow, the private sector started to take initiatives to address the issues that are left out of the policies, which helped overcome certain market barriers and enabled the sustainable growth of the market. Future policies could incorporate the successful innovations from the businesses to ensure long-term development of China’s EPC market. Understanding these policy and business drivers in a holistic way is critical to understanding how China was able to leverage its relatively small policy investments into much larger transformation of its existing buildings and industrial facilities through energy efficiency retrofits. This in turn can be informative for other countries seeking to achieve large-scale energy efficiency improvements.

Zhou, Yuanrong↗
DOE OSTI2023

BSM (Bioenergy Scenario Model) 2023 FKA: Biomass Scenario Model [SWR-09-09]

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Bioenergy Technologies Office and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed the BSM (Bioenergy Scenario model) to explore the development of a U.S. biofuels industry. The BSM is a system dynamics model built on the STELLA software platform. The model represents the dynamic interactions of the major sectors of the biofuels industry—feedstock production, feedstock logistics, biomass to biofuels conversion, and biofuels end use, including fuels inventory, dispensing, distribution, fuel use, and the vehicle fleet. The BSM represents contextual aspects of the developing biofuels industry, including investment in new biomass to biofuel conversion technologies, competition from petroleum fuels, vehicle demand for biofuels, and various government policies, using all of these to simulate the development of the industry. The purpose of the BSM is to generate and explore plausible scenarios for the evolution of a biofuels industry in the United States, and as a high-level system model it is not designed for precise, quantitative forecasting. Instead, it is best used to (1) analyze and evaluate alternate policies; (2) generate scenarios; (3) identify high-impact levers and bottlenecks to system evolution; and (4) seed focused discussion among policymakers, analysts, and stakeholders.

Bush, Brian↗
DOE OSTI2023

Method and apparatus for constructing informative outcomes to guide multi-policy decision making

In Multi-Policy Decision-Making (MPDM), many computationally-expensive forward simulations are performed in order to predict the performance of a set of candidate policies. In risk-aware formulations of MPDM, only the worst outcomes affect the decision making process, and efficiently finding these influential outcomes becomes the core challenge. Recently, stochastic gradient optimization algorithms, using a heuristic function, were shown to be significantly superior to random sampling. In this disclosure, it was shown that accurate gradients can be computed-even through a complex forward simulation—using approaches similar to those in dep networks. The proposed approach finds influential outcomes more reliably, and is faster than earlier methods, allowing one to evaluate more policies while simultaneously eliminating the need to design an easily-differentiable heuristic function.

Olson, Edwin↗
DOE OSTI2020

Minnesota Solar Pathways: Illuminating Pathways to 10% Solar (Final Technical Report)

The Minnesota Solar Pathways project, funded in part by the Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technologies Office, was a three-year project designed to explore least-risk, best-value strategies for meeting the State of Minnesota’s solar goals. As part of this aim, the Pathways Team modeled renewable generation costs, examined ways to streamline interconnection, and evaluated technologies that can increase solar hosting capacity on the distribution grid. Midway through the project period, the Pathways Team expanded the scope of study using the same modeling framework from the Minnesota Solar Potential Analysis to estimate and compare generation costs for high renewables penetration scenarios across the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region. The analysis concludes that it can be cheaper to overbuild solar + wind and curtail surplus than to store all generation. In addition, the analysis of individual MISO subregions compared with the whole region highlights the opportunities of enabling market potential compared with impact of ongoing transmission constraints. Beyond the analysis of future scenarios, the partnerships initiated and supported through this project underscored the ongoing need for work with stakeholders to address key issues, particularly around siting, and leverage symbiotic strategies to meet state goals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

SIMPLE-G: A multiscale framework for integration of economic and biophysical determinants of sustainability

We introduce SIMPLE-G, a Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment- Gridded version, which is a novel tool for evaluating sustainability policies in a global context while factoring in local heterogeneity in land and water resources and natural ecosystem services. This multi-scale model can provide boundary conditions for local decision makers, as well as capturing feedback from local policies to national and global scales. Additionally, to illustrate its value in environmental analysis, we provide two applications of the model. First, we quantify the local stresses on land and water resources due to global changes in population, income, and productivity. Second, we quantify the global impacts of local policy responses and adaptations to water scarcity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of solar geoengineering on temperature-attributable mortality

Decisions about solar geoengineering (SG) entail risk–risk tradeoffs between the direct risks of SG and SG’s ability to reduce climate risks. Quantitative comparisons between these risks are needed to inform public policy. We evaluate idealized SG’s effectiveness in reducing deaths from warming using two climate models and an econometric analysis of temperature-attributable mortality. We find SG’s impact on temperature-attributable mortality is uneven with decreases for hotter, poorer regions and increases in cooler, richer regions. Relative to no SG, global mortality is reduced by over 400,000 deaths annually [90% CI: (−1.2 million,2.7 million)] for cooling of 1 °C from 2.5 °C above preindustrial in 2080. We find no evidence that mortality reduction achieved by SG is smaller than the reduction from equivalent cooling by emissions reductions. Combining our estimates with existing estimates of sulphate aerosol injection direct mortality risk from air quality and UV-attributable cancer enables the first quantitative risk-risk comparison of SG. We estimate with 61% probability that the mortality benefits of cooling outweigh these direct SG risks. We find the benefits outweigh these risks by 13 times for our central estimates, or 4 deaths per 100,000 per 1 °C per year [90% CI: (−11,23)]. This is not a comprehensive evaluation of the risk–risk tradeoffs around SG, yet by comparing some of the most consequential impacts on human welfare it is a useful first step. While these findings are robust to a variety of alternative assumptions, considerable uncertainties remain and require further investigation.

Harding, Anthony (ORCID:0000000262898253)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rapidly evolving aerosol emissions are a dangerous omission from near-term climate risk assessments

Abstract Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, driving strong, spatially complex trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events both near and far from emission sources. Under-resourced, highly populated regions often bear the brunt of aerosols’ climate and air quality effects, amplifying risk through heightened exposure and vulnerability. However, many policy-facing evaluations of near-term climate risk, including those in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report, underrepresent aerosols’ complex and regionally diverse climate effects, reducing them to a globally averaged offset to greenhouse gas warming. We argue that this constitutes a major missing element in society’s ability to prepare for future climate change. We outline a pathway towards progress and call for greater interaction between the aerosol research, impact modeling, scenario development, and risk assessment communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

"PoliMOR: A Policy Engine \"Made-to-Order\" for Automated and Scalable Data Management in Lustre"

Modern supercomputing systems are increasingly reliant on hierarchical, multi-tiered file and storage system architectures due to cost-performance-capacity trade-offs. Within such multi-tiered systems, data management services are required to maintain healthy utilization, performance, and capacity levels. We present PoliMOR, a pragmatic and reliable policy-driven data management framework. PoliMOR is composed of modular, single-purpose agents that gather file system metadata and enforce policies on storage systems. PoliMOR facilitates automated and scalable data management with customizable agents tailored to HPC facility-specific storage systems and policies. Our evaluations demonstrate the scalability and performance of PoliMOR both by its individual agents and as a collective entity. We believe PoliMOR is widely applicable across HPC facilities with large-scale data management challenges and will garner interest from the HPC community, given its flexible and open-source nature.

George, Anjus↗