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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Dynamic Transmission Line Switching Amid Wildfire-Prone Weather Under Decision-Dependent Uncertainty

During dry and windy seasons, environmental conditions significantly increase the risk of wildfires, exposing power grids to disruptions caused by transmission line failures. Wildfire propagation exacerbates grid vulnerability, potentially leading to prolonged power outages. To address this challenge, we propose a multistage optimization model that dynamically adjusts transmission grid topology in response to wildfire propagation, aiming to develop an optimal response policy. By accounting for decision-dependent uncertainty, where line survival probabilities depend on usage, we employ distributionally robust optimization to model uncertainty in line survival distributions. We adapt the stochastic nested decomposition algorithm and derive a deterministic upper bound for its finite convergence. To enhance computational efficiency, we exploit the Lagrangian dual problem structure for a faster generation of Lagrangian cuts. Using realistic data from the California transmission grid, we demonstrate the superior performance of dynamic response policies against two-stage alternatives through a comprehensive case study. In addition, after solving the multistage formulation, we construct easy-to-implement policies that significantly reduce computational burden while maintaining good performance in real-time deployment. History: Accepted by Russell Bent, Area Editor for Network Optimization: Algorithms and Applications. Funding: This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity [Grant DE-AC02-05CH11231]. The work of R. Jiang was supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation, Division of Electrical, Communications and Cyber Systems [Grant ECCS-1845980] and the U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research [Grant FA9550-23-1-0323]. Supplemental Material: The software that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplemental Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2025.1210 ) as well as from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC/2025.1210 ). The complete IJOC Software and Data Repository is available at https://informsjoc.github.io/ .

Estrada-Garcia, Juan-Alberto↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-informed Deep Reinforcement Learning-based Control in Power systems

Incorporating physics information into the deep reinforcement learning (DRL) process is a promising approach for addressing the challenges faced in learning-based control design problems for physical systems. Power grid dynamics, being a physical system, adheres to specific physical laws, constraints, as well as operational and control rules. Therefore, consideration of such physics-based law improves the learning process drastically. In general, traditional grid control schemes rely on rule-based mechanisms that cannot adapt to changing operating conditions. To improve the adaptability and computation time, recent research has seen a surge of DRL-based applications in power grid control. A generic DRL-based control design imposes the system performance requirements through the design of reward functions. In some cases, some of the important physics information is injected through this reward function. However, due to the complex dynamics and large state-action space, learning an optimal DRL policy often becomes challenging. Inspired by the latest developments in general machine learning (ML) research, power system researchers have been investigating more direct ways of incorporating physics knowledge into DRL training. This chapter specifically focuses on these aspects of physics-informed DRL designs in grid control. It discusses the significance, applications, research gaps, and open problems that need to be addressed in future research.

artificial intelligence, machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nuclear microreactor transient and load-following control with deep reinforcement learning

The economic feasibility of nuclear microreactors will depend on minimizing operating costs through advancements in autonomous control, especially when these microreactors are operating alongside other types of energy systems (e.g., renewable energy). This study explores the application of deep reinforcement learning (RL) for real-time drum control in microreactors, exploring performance in regard to load-following scenarios. By leveraging a point kinetics model with thermal and xenon feedback, we first establish a baseline using a single-output RL agent, then compare it against a traditional proportional–integral–derivative (PID) controller. This study demonstrates that RL controllers, including both single- and multi-agent RL (MARL) frameworks, can achieve similar or even superior load-following performance as traditional PID control across a range of load-following scenarios. In short transients, the RL agent was able to reduce the tracking error rate in comparison to PID by one half to one third. Over extended 300-minute load-following scenarios in which xenon feedback becomes a dominant factor, PID maintained better accuracy, but RL still remained within a 1% error margin despite being trained only on short-duration scenarios. This highlights RL’s strong ability to generalize and extrapolate to longer, more complex transients, affording substantial reductions in training costs and reduced overfitting. Furthermore, when control was extended to multiple drums, MARL enabled independent drum control as well as maintained reactor symmetry constraints without sacrificing performance---an objective that standard single-agent RL could not learn. We also found that, as increasing levels of Gaussian noise were added to the power measurements, the RL controllers were able to maintain lower error rates than PID, and to do so with at least 10% and upwards of 150% less control effort. These findings illustrate RL's potential for autonomous nuclear reactor control, laying the groundwork for future integration into high-fidelity simulations and experimental validation efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decision-making based on Markov decision process in integrated artificial reasoning framework—Part I: Theory

This paper presents a decision-making framework based on an integrated artificial reasoning framework and Markov decision process (MDP). The integrated artificial reasoning framework provides a physics-based approach that converts system information into state transition models, and the analysis result will be represented by the transition probabilities that can be used with an MDP to find a traceable and explainable optimal pathway. A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is well suited for representing the structure of an MDP. The causality information among process variables (or among subsystems) is mathematically represented in a DBN by the conditional probabilities of the node’s states provided different probabilities of the parent node’s states. To define node states in a physically understandable manner, we used multilevel flow modeling (MFM). An MFM follows the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws and supports the selection of process variables that represent the system of interest so that causal relations among process variables are properly captured. An MFM-based DBN supports developing state transition models in an MDP to capture the effect of process variables of system having physical relations. The operators of the target system can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from component degradation or random failures. We analyzed a simplified exemplary system to illustrate an optimal operational policy using the suggested approach.

Markov decision process↗
DOE OSTI2025

SCORE (Synthesis of COnsists as Rolling Energy microgrids) (Final Technical Report)

The SCORE toolset is an open source, web-based application to assess the impact of new powering technologies on railroad performance, specifically technologies capable of both putting power into the rail (motive force) and taking power from the rail (regeneration). SCORE’s primary goal is generate trade studies to analyze different powering and train make-up options to minimize energy usage and greenhouse gas generation. At the core of generating these trade spaces is calculating the optimal powering policy for the train given the makeup of the train, the route, and time constraints. This paper presents details on the algorithms used in SCORE to compute this powering policies that is fast and accurate, discusses its implementation in an Energy-Longitudinal Train Dynamics (E-LTD) model, compares it to naïve approaches, and demonstrates its use across a variety of train/route pairs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-scale, Multi-disciplinary, and Multi-agent Explainable AI with Koopman-Undergirded Learning, Prediction, and Analysis (M3EA KULPA) (Project Closeout Report)

The goal of this project was to develop and use domain-aware machine learning formulations, based on the Koopman Operator (KO), for modelling multi-scale, multi-disciplinary (e.g., multi-physics), and/or multi-agent systems. The project developed these formulations for the following cases: • Systems with dynamics at two separate time scales, • Systems with a bi-level hierarchical control structure, • Systems with bi-level hierarchical control and dynamics at two separate time scales (the lower level controls operating at the faster time scale), and • Systems with n separate but interacting agents/disciplines (with/without control, respectively); the controls for each agent could include bi-level hierarchical control and dynamics at two separate time scales as described above. The project then defined a set of dynamical systems consisting of different nonlinear oscillators that could be used to test these different formulations and then subsequently learned the KO models for those systems. With the KO models, we were able to do the following: • Quantify system stability, including both long-term and transient behavior, • Quantify the effects of feedbacks between the different time scales and agents/disciplines in terms of those feedbacks’ effects on system stability, • Replace a standard Proportional-Integral (PI) control in the hierarchical control structure with a KO-based Linear-Quadratic Regular (LQR), a form of optimal control, • Calculate optimal supervisory control policies a) with and without time scale separated dynamics at the lower level control levels and b) with both PI and KO-based LQR lower level control policies, and • Calculate dynamic Nash equilibria for multi-agent systems where each agent makes its own control decisions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hamiltonian switching control of noisy bipartite qubit systems

Abstract We develop a Hamiltonian switching ansatz for bipartite control that is inspired by the quantum approximate optimization algorithm, to mitigate environmental noise on qubits. We demonstrate the control for a central spin coupled to bath spins via isotropic Heisenberg interactions, and then make physical applications to the protection of quantum gates performed on superconducting transmon qubits coupling to environmental two-level-systems (TLSs) through dipole-dipole interactions, as well as on such qubits coupled to both TLSs and a Lindblad bath. The control field is classical and acts only on the system qubits. We use reinforcement learning with policy gradient to optimize the Hamiltonian switching control protocols, using a fidelity objective for specific target quantum gates. We use this approach to demonstrate effective suppression of both coherent and dissipative noise, with numerical studies achieving target gate implementations with fidelities over 0.9999 (four nines) in the majority of our test cases and showing improvement beyond this to values of 0.999 999 999 (nine nines) upon a subsequent optimization by GRadient Ascent Pulse Engineering (GRAPE). We analyze how the control depth, total evolution time, number of environmental TLS, and choice of optimization method affect the fidelity achieved by the optimal protocols and reveal some critical behaviors of bipartite control of quantum gates.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward Accelerating Discovery via Physics-Driven and Interactive Multifidelity Bayesian Optimization

Both computational and experimental material discovery bring forth the challenge of exploring multidimensional and often nondifferentiable parameter spaces, such as phase diagrams of Hamiltonians with multiple interactions, composition spaces of combinatorial libraries, processing spaces, and molecular embedding spaces. Often these systems are expensive or time consuming to evaluate a single instance, and hence classical approaches based on exhaustive grid or random search are too data intensive. This resulted in strong interest toward active learning methods such as Bayesian optimization (BO) where the adaptive exploration occurs based on human learning (discovery) objective. However, classical BO is based on a predefined optimization target, and policies balancing exploration and exploitation are purely data driven. In practical settings, the domain expert can pose prior knowledge of the system in the form of partially known physics laws and exploration policies often vary during the experiment. Here, we propose an interactive workflow building on multifidelity BO (MFBO), starting with classical (data-driven) MFBO, then expand to a proposed structured (physics-driven) structured MFBO (sMFBO), and finally extend it to allow human-in-the-loop interactive interactive MFBO (iMFBO) workflows for adaptive and domain expert aligned exploration. These approaches are demonstrated over highly nonsmooth multifidelity simulation data generated from an Ising model, considering spin–spin interaction as parameter space, lattice sizes as fidelity spaces, and the objective as maximizing heat capacity. Detailed analysis and comparison show the impact of physics knowledge injection and real-time human decisions for improved exploration with increased alignment to ground truth. Here, the associated notebooks allow to reproduce the reported analyses and apply them to other systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reimagining Energy Efficiency Resource Standards

Energy Efficiency Resource Standards (EERS) are a long-standing policy used to advance state goals and priorities, such as reliability, affordability and decarbonization. They ensure cost-effective energy efficiency is used to lower energy consumption, reduce peak demand, and enable grid flexibility. Adapting EERS through strategic design, and integrating EERS into broader energy plans and policies, can help states optimize their approach to meet modern and evolving power system needs and achieve sustainable energy outcomes. This report examines how states consider energy efficiency in the context of four policy priorities: providing grid benefits, addressing load growth, reducing emissions, and promoting affordability. It provides examples of states that are pursuing these priorities, reviews the role of energy efficiency in them and identifies opportunities to further promote energy efficiency alongside the priorities. Decisionmakers and stakeholders can draw directly from these examples and findings to design an EERS that maximizes co-benefits, captures synergies, and promotes consideration of the all the possible solutions to advance their goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A tri-level optimization model for interdependent infrastructure network resilience against compound hazard events

Resilient operation of interdependent infrastructures against compound hazard events is essential for maintaining societal well-being. To address consequence assessment challenges in this problem space, we propose a novel policy-guided tri-level optimization model applied to a proof-of-concept case study with fuel distribution and transportation networks – encompassing one realistic network; one fictitious, yet realistic network; as well as networks drawn from three synthetic distributions. Mathematically, our approach takes the form of a defender-attacker-defender (DAD) model—a multi-agent tri-level optimization, comprised of a defender, attacker, and an operator acting in sequence. Here, in this study, our notional operator may choose proxy actions to operate an interdependent system comprised of fuel terminals and gas stations (functioning as supplies) and a transportation network with traffic flow (functioning as demand) to minimize unmet demand at gas stations. A notional attacker aims to hypothetically disrupt normal operations by reducing supply at the supply terminals, and the notional defender aims to identify best proxy defense policy options which include hardening supply terminals or allowing alternative distribution methods such as trucking reserve supplies. We solve our DAD formulation at a metropolitan scale and present practical defense policy insights against hypothetical compound hazards. We demonstrate the generalizability of our framework by presenting results for a realistic network; a fictitious, yet realistic network; as well as for three networks drawn from synthetic distributions. Additionally, we demonstrate the scalability of the framework by investigating runtime performance as a function of the network size. Steps for future research are also discussed.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A transfer learning approach to energy-efficient control of small and medium-sized commercial buildings

Model-free reinforcement learning (RL) provides a data-driven and adaptive approach to optimize building energy use while satisfying occupant comfort. This powerful tool does not need any prior knowledge about the environment and system it is optimizing and can adapt its policy based on the changes in captures. Like any other data-driven tool, it faces high training costs due to the extensive agent-environment interactions required to capture long-term building dynamics and user comfort. Transfer learning, particularly policy distillation, offers a promising way to accelerate training by leveraging pretrained RL agents in different building and system types. Here, this study investigates online student distillation, in which the student model updates its neural network weights using outputs from teacher models. The work introduces a student distillation strategy designed for efficient knowledge transfer, along with a teacher selection method that ensures high-quality guidance. The approach is validated using a highly calibrated whole building energy model for a small/medium commercial building test facility. Results show substantial reductions in training time and data requirements while surpassing the performance of ASHRAE Guideline 36, an advanced rule-based control strategy. The distilled RL model required 45% less data and achieved 20% higher cumulative rewards than a state-of-the-art RL model, with faster convergence and lower energy consumption. These outcomes demonstrate that effective transfer learning enables a scalable and data-efficient energy management solution for commercial buildings.

ASHRAE guideline 36↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Debate on Vehicle Triad: Examining the Utilization Patterns of Gasoline, Hybrid, and Electric Vehicles in Households

Light-duty vehicles contribute to approximately half of the transport sector's emissions, a sector challenging to decarbonize owing to the autocentric nature of many American cities. The U.S. Department of Transportation's blueprint outlines three key decarbonization strategies: increasing convenience, improving efficiency, and transitioning to zero-emission vehicles. Among these, the adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) offers a promising opportunity to reduce emissions from light-duty vehicles, which are predominantly gasoline-powered. Although substantial literature identifies and addresses factors influencing EV adoption, understanding their utilization within households who own vehicles with mixed fuel types is crucial for accurately assessing their environmental benefits. This paper addresses two key questions: (a) Are EVs utilized more, equally, or less than gasoline vehicles (GVs) and (b) What factors influence mileage utilization patterns in households with multiple vehicle fuel types, accounting for substitution and complementary effects? Analysis of 2022 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data indicates that EVs are utilized more than GVs within households that own multiple mixed fuel fleets. Findings reveal that households with a higher number of younger individuals and multiple workers use EVs more extensively, and those with older adults and larger households with multiple vehicles tend to use GVs more. Rural households have higher use of hybrid vehicles (HVs). The study identifies a substitution effect between EVs and GVs, while complementary relationship between HVs and EVs, suggesting nuances in vehicle utilization patterns. This nuanced understanding of vehicle utilization patterns informs the development of targeted policies and infrastructure investments to optimize household transportation efficiency.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Designing robust energy policy packages under deep uncertainty: A multi-metric decision support framework

The complexity of transitioning to sustainable energy systems requires policy frameworks capable of balancing multiple objectives while addressing deep uncertainty. However, existing approaches often lack systematic methods to identify combinations of policy levers that remain effective across a wide range of uncertain futures. This paper presents a novel decision support framework that guides the selection of robust policy packages based on their performance across multiple objectives under uncertainty. Our method leverages a large ensemble of scenarios and applies scenario discovery techniques to identify influential policy levers. Here, we introduce new indicators to assess the robustness of policies by evaluating their ability to mitigate adverse outcomes across metrics. These indicators support an iterative process to build a robust policy package. Finally, we map the technological and energy pathways associated with the robust policy package by leveraging an energy system optimization model. We illustrate the application of this framework to the Spanish energy system, providing insights into how specific combinations of policy levers shape decarbonization pathways under uncertainty.

Decision-support method↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Iterative Approach for Solving the SCOPF Problem Applying LP, SOCP, and NLP Subproblems

We propose to develop efficient algorithms and software for the SCOPF problem. We will employ an iterative approach that will: a) use linear subproblems and other active set filtering techniques to identify the most important contingencies and drastically reduce the SCOPF model size; b) solve SOCP relaxations of the reduced SCOPF to converge to the neighborhood of the global optimal solution and establish a lower bound on the solution, and; c) use a non-convex, nonlinear interior-point solver, Artelys Knitro, to converge quickly to the optimal solution. To identify the most effective approach, we will experiment with several techniques to identify the tradeoffs between contingency subproblem complexity and fast solvability.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Control of SOEC-Based Hydrogen Production Systems for Demand Response Using Deep Reinforcement Learning in Smart Grids

Solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) hydrogen production technology can range in size from small, appliance-size equipment to large-scale, central production facilities that can be tied directly to renewable or non-greenhouse-gas-emitting forms of electricity production, making it an ideal resource for demand response (DR). The SOEC hydrogen production system is a complex integrated system that encompasses fluid dynamics, electrical dynamics, and electrochemical and thermal dynamics, all of which involve non-linearity and non-convexity. Proper control of the SOEC hydrogen production system is crucial to enable its participation in the DR program. Here, to overcome the difficulty of designing an explicit control law for such nonlinear systems with nonconvex optimization features in DR applications, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) is explored to achieve the optimal control of the SOEC system for DR participation. Specifically, a twin delayed deterministic policy gradient (TD3) control framework is applied to achieve optimal response performance during DR events by considering power tracking error and hydrogen production efficiency with a suitable reward function. Two case studies with grid connections for tracking different DR commands were investigated. The first case study involved operating conditions reaching the boundaries, while the second involved operating conditions within the boundaries. The results showed that the proposed DRL-based control for SOEC can track the DR signal in a timely manner while maintaining high energy efficiency.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Interface Limits for High-Spatial Resolution Capacity Expansion Modeling

Large-scale capacity expansion models typically rely on estimates of the power transfer limits between modeled zones. Accurate estimation of these interface transfer limits (ITLs) requires modeling the underlying transmission network. Here we expand on a maximum flow optimization method that uses linearized power flow to estimate transfer limits. We apply this method to a data set of the U.S. transmission network to estimate ITLs between U.S. counties. By calculating ITLs using different subsets of the network, we evaluate how the size of the network used in the estimation affects the results. The results show diminishing returns to ITL accuracy after six hops, suggesting that a network subset can reasonably be used to approximate ITLs. The county-level estimates produced in this study will support more spatially resolved capacity expansion modeling and will help inform policy making at local and national levels.

capacity planning↗