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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Sendai virus intra-host population dynamics and host immunocompetence influence viral virulence during in vivo passage

In vivo serial passage of non-pathogenic viruses has been shown to lead to increased viral virulence, and although the precise mechanism(s) are not clear, it is known that both host and viral factors are associated with increased pathogenicity. Under- or overnutrition leads to a decreased or dysregulated immune response and can increase viral mutant spectrum diversity and virulence. The objective of this study was to identify the role of viral mutant spectra dynamics and host immunocompetence in the development of pathogenicity during in vivo passage. Because the nutritional status of the host has been shown to affect the development of viral virulence, the diet of animal model reflected two extremes of diets which exist in the global population, malnutrition and obesity. Sendai virus was serially passaged in groups of mice with differing nutritional status followed by transmission of the passaged virus to a second host species, guinea pigs. Viral population dynamics were characterized using deep sequence analysis and computational modeling. Histopathology, viral titer and cytokine assays were used to characterize viral virulence. Viral virulence increased with passage and the virulent phenotype persisted upon passage to a second host species. Additionally, nutritional status of mice during passage influenced the phenotype. Sequencing revealed the presence of several non-synonymous changes in the consensus sequence associated with passage, a majority of which occurred in the hemagglutinin-neuraminidase and polymerase genes, as well as the presence of persistent high frequency variants in the viral population. In particular, an N1124D change in the consensus sequences of the polymerase gene was detected by passage 10 in a majority of the animals. In vivo comparison of an 1124D plaque isolate to a clone with 1124N genotype indicated that 1124D was associated with increased virulence.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2007

Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects

When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend treatment gaps during radiotherapy, apart from decreasing the probability of eradicating the primary cancer, substantially increase the risk of later second cancers.

Sachs, Rainer K.↗
DOE OSTI2016

New insights into the nonadiabatic state population dynamics of model proton-coupled electron transfer reactions from the mixed quantum-classical Liouville approach

In a previous study [F. A. Shakib and G. Hanna, J. Chem. Phys. 141, 044122 (2014)], we investigated a model proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) reaction via the mixed quantum-classical Liouville (MQCL) approach and found that the trajectories spend the majority of their time on the mean of two coherently coupled adiabatic potential energy surfaces. This suggested a need for mean surface evolution to accurately simulate observables related to ultrafast PCET processes. In this study, we simulate the time-dependent populations of the three lowest adiabatic states in the ET-PT (i.e., electron transfer preceding proton transfer) version of the same PCET model via the MQCL approach and compare them to the exact quantum results and those obtained via the fewest switches surface hopping (FSSH) approach. We find that the MQCL population profiles are in good agreement with the exact quantum results and show a significant improvement over the FSSH results. All of the mean surfaces are shown to play a direct role in the dynamics of the state populations. Interestingly, our results indicate that the population transfer to the second-excited state can be mediated by dynamics on the mean of the ground and second-excited state surfaces, as part of a sequence of nonadiabatic transitions that bypasses the first-excited state surface altogether. This is made possible through nonadiabatic transitions between different mean surfaces, which is the manifestation of coherence transfer in MQCL dynamics. We also investigate the effect of the strength of the coupling between the proton/electron and the solvent coordinate on the state population dynamics. Drastic changes in the population dynamics are observed, which can be understood in terms of the changes in the potential energy surfaces and the nonadiabatic couplings. Finally, we investigate the state population dynamics in the PT-ET (i.e., proton transfer preceding electron transfer) and concerted versions of the model. The PT-ET results confirm the participation of all of the mean surfaces, albeit in different proportions compared to the ET-PT case, while the concerted results indicate that the mean of the ground- and first-excited state surfaces only plays a role, due to the large energy gaps between the ground- and second-excited state surfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Relationship between population dynamics and the self-energy in driven non-equilibrium systems

We compare the decay rates of excited populations directly calculated within a Keldysh formalism to the equation of motion of the population itself for a Hubbard-Holstein model in two dimensions. While it is true that these two approaches must give the same answer, it is common to make a number of simplifying assumptions, within the differential equation for the populations, that allows one to interpret the decay in terms of hot electrons interacting with a phonon bath. Furthermore, we show how care must be taken to ensure an accurate treatment of the equation of motion for the populations due to the fact that there are identities that require cancellations of terms that naively look like they contribute to the decay rates. In particular, the average time dependence of the Green's functions and self-energies plays a pivotal role in determining these decay rates.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2005

Population dynamics of transgenic strain Escherichia coli Z905/pPHL7 in freshwater and saline lake water microcosms with differing microbial community structures

Populations of Escherichia coli Z905/pPHL7, a transgenic microorganism, were heterogenic in the expression of plasmid genes when adapting to the conditions of water microcosms of various mineralization levels and structure of microbial community. This TM has formed two subpopulations (ampicillin-resistant and ampicillin-sensitive) in every microcosm. Irrespective of mineralization level of a microcosm, when E. coli Z905/pPHL7 alone was introduced, the ampicillin-resistant subpopulation prevailed, while introduction of the TM together with indigenous bacteria led to the dominance of the ampicillin-sensitive subpopulation. A high level of lux gene expression maintained longer in the freshwater microcosms than in sterile saline lake water microcosms. A horizontal gene transfer has been revealed between the jointly introduced TM and Micrococcus sp. 9/pSH1 in microcosms with the Lake Shira sterile water. c2005 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecosystem↗
DOE OSTI2015

Coherence and population dynamics of chlorophyll excitations in FCP complex: Two-dimensional spectroscopy study

Energy transfer processes and coherent phenomena in the fucoxanthin–chlorophyll protein complex, which is responsible for the light harvesting function in marine algae diatoms, were investigated at 77 K by using two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy. Experiments performed on femtosecond and picosecond timescales led to separation of spectral dynamics, witnessing evolutions of coherence and population states of the system in the spectral region of Q{sub y} transitions of chlorophylls a and c. Analysis of the coherence dynamics allowed us to identify chlorophyll (Chl) a and fucoxanthin intramolecular vibrations dominating over the first few picoseconds. Closer inspection of the spectral region of the Q{sub y} transition of Chl c revealed previously not identified, mutually non-interacting chlorophyll c states participating in femtosecond or picosecond energy transfer to the Chl a molecules. Consideration of separated coherent and incoherent dynamics allowed us to hypothesize the vibrations-assisted coherent energy transfer between Chl c and Chl a and the overall spatial arrangement of chlorophyll molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies. A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm

Background Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. Methods and Findings We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Conclusion Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

Population dynamics during cell proliferation and neuronogenesis in the developing murine neocortex

During the development of the neocortex, cell proliferation occurs in two specialized zones adjacent to the lateral ventricle. One of these zones, the ventricular zone, produces most of the neurons of the neocortex. The proliferating population that resides in the ventricular zone is a pseudostratified ventricular epithelium (PVE) that looks uniform in routine histological preparations, but is, in fact, an active and dynamically changing population. In the mouse, over the course of a 6-day period, the PVE produces approximately 95% of the neurons of the adult neocortex. During this time, the cell cycle of the PVE population lengthens from about 8 h to over 18 h and the progenitor population passes through a total of 11 cell cycles. This 6-day, 11-cell cycle period comprises the "neuronogenetic interval" (NI). At each passage through the cell cycle, the proportion of daughter cells that exit the cell cycle (Q cells) increases from 0 at the onset of the NI to 1 at the end of the NI. The proportion of daughter cells that re-enter the cell cycle (P cells) changes in a complementary fashion from 1 at the onset of the NI to 0 at the end of the NI. This set of systematic changes in the cell cycle and the output from the proliferative population of the PVE allows a quantitative and mathematical treatment of the expansion of the PVE and the growth of the cortical plate that nicely accounts for the observed expansion and growth of the developing neocortex. In addition, we show that the cells produced during a 2-h window of development during specific cell cycles reside in a specific set of laminae in the adult cortex, but that the distributions of the output from consecutive cell cycles overlap. These dynamic events occur in all areas of the PVE underlying the neocortex, but there is a gradient of maturation that begins in the rostrolateral neocortex near the striatotelencephalic junction and which spreads across the surface of the neocortex over a period of 24-36 h. The presence of the gradient across the hemisphere is a possible source of positional information that could be exploited during development to establish the areal borders that characterize the adult neocortex.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2014

Modeling the effects of river flow on population dynamics of piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) and least terns (Sternula antillarum) nesting on the Missouri River

Humans make extensive use of rivers and floodplains for economic benefits including agriculture, hydropower, commerce and recreation. Economic development of floodplains subsequently requires control of river levels to avoid flood damage. This process began in the Missouri River basin in the 1890s with the construction of a series of hydropower dams in Montana and escalated to new levels with the approval of the Pick-Sloan plan in the 1944 Flood Control Act. Maximizing these human uses of the river led to changes in and losses of hydrological and ecological processes, ultimately resulting in the federal listing of three fish and wildlife species under the Endangered Species Act: the pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhyncus albus; 1983), the piping plover (Charadrius melodus; 1984), and the interior population of least tern (Sternula antillarum; 1985). The listing of terns and plovers did not affect river management until the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) proposed to modify the governing document of the Missouri River Mainstem System, the Master Manual, a process which was completed in 2003. Although there was little disagreement over the habitat conditions that terns and plovers used for nesting, there was substantial disagreement over the amount of habitat necessary for terns and plovers to meet population recovery goals. Answering this question requires forecasting species-specific population responses to dynamic habitat affected by both human actions (reservoir management and habitat restoration) and natural variability in precipitation. Piping plovers and least terns nest along the Missouri River from Fort Peck, Montana to just north of Sioux City, Iowa (Figure 1). Both species prefer to nest on sand and fine gravel substrates with no or sparse vegetation cover (Prindiville Gaines and Ryan, 1988; Sherfy et al., 2012), such as riverine sandbars (emergent sandbar habitat; ESH). Piping plovers also nest on reservoir shorelines that lack vegetation cover (Anteau et al., 2012). The amount of ESH available for nesting in a given year is strongly affected by the amount of water entering the Missouri River system through precipitation and the management of water flow from six reservoirs operated by the USACE on the mainstem Missouri River. Prior to the construction of dams, the Missouri River experienced bimodal peak flows in spring and early summer in concordance with the melting of plains and mountain snowpack (Galat and Lipkin, 2000). Flows decreased during summer months, with river stage then dependent upon rainfall. The combination of consistent high flows and occasional extreme high flows, together with the meandering characteristic of the river, regularly reshaped and scoured vegetation from ESH.

adaptive management↗
DOE OSTI2015

Spatial structures in a simple model of population dynamics for parasite-host interactions

Spatial patterning can be crucially important for understanding the behavior of interacting populations. Here we investigate a simple model of parasite and host populations in which parasites are random walkers that must come into contact with a host in order to reproduce. We focus on the spatial arrangement of parasites around a single host, and we derive using analytics and numerical simulations the necessary conditions placed on the parasite fecundity and lifetime for the populations long-term survival. We also show that the parasite population can be pushed to extinction by a large drift velocity, but, counterintuitively, a small drift velocity generally increases the parasite population.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sub-daily virus sampling at the Bermuda Atlantic Time Series reveals diel and depth-structured population dynamics without community-level shifts

Ocean microbes contribute to biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem function, but they do so under top-down pressure imposed by viruses. While viruses are increasingly understood spatially and beginning to be incorporated into predictive modeling, high-frequency ocean virus dynamics remain understudied due to methodological challenges. Here we sampled stratified Bermuda Atlantic Time Series (BATS) waters for 112 hours at sub-daily 4- (surface) or 12- (deep chlorophyll maximum) hour intervals, purified viral particles from these samples, sequenced their metagenomes, and used the resulting data to characterize high-frequency virus community dynamics. Aggregated community diversity metrics changed with depth, but were not statistically significant temporally at a fixed location. However, finer-scale population-level analyses revealed both depth and temporal change, including physicochemical depth-driven differences and, in surface waters, thousands of viral populations that exhibited statistically significant diel rhythms. Statistical analyses revealed three main archetypes of temporal dynamics that themselves differed in abundance patterns, host predictions, viral taxonomy, and gene functions. Among these, highlights include viruses resembling an archetype with a night peaking pattern in activity that include an over-representation of viruses that putatively infect Prochlorococcus, a phototrophic cyanobacteria. Together, these efforts provide baseline community- and population-scale short-time-frame observations relevant to future climate state modeling.

Carrillo, Alfonso [The Ohio State University, Colu↗
DOE OSTI2016

Study of a mixed dispersal population dynamics model

In this study, we consider a mixed dispersal model with periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions and its corresponding linear eigenvalue problem. This model describes the time evolution of a population which disperses both locally and non-locally. We investigate how long time dynamics depend on the parameter values. Furthermore, we study the minimization of the principal eigenvalue under the constraints that the resource function is bounded from above and below, and with a fixed total integral. Biologically, this minimization problem is motivated by the question of determining the optimal spatial arrangement of favorable and unfavorable regions for the species to die out more slowly or survive more easily. Our numerical simulations indicate that the optimal favorable region tends to be a simply-connected domain. Numerous results are shown to demonstrate various scenarios of optimal favorable regions for periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fusing time-varying mosquito data and continuous mosquito population dynamics models

Climate change is arguably one of the most pressing issues affecting the world today and requires the fusion of disparate data streams to accurately model its impacts. Mosquito populations respond to temperature and precipitation in a nonlinear way, making predicting climate impacts on mosquito-borne diseases an ongoing challenge. Data-driven approaches for accurately modeling mosquito populations are needed for predicting mosquito-borne disease risk under climate change scenarios. Many current models for disease transmission are continuous and autonomous, while mosquito data is discrete and varies both within and between seasons. This study uses an optimization framework to fit a non-autonomous logistic model with periodic net growth rate and carrying capacity parameters for 15 years of daily mosquito time-series data from the Greater Toronto Area of Canada. The resulting parameters accurately capture the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability of mosquito populations within a single geographic region, and a variance-based sensitivity analysis highlights the influence each parameter has on the peak magnitude and timing of the mosquito season. This method can easily extend to other geographic regions and be integrated into a larger disease transmission model. This method addresses the ongoing challenges of data and model fusion by serving as a link between discrete time-series data and continuous differential equations for mosquito-borne epidemiology models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Population Dynamics and Temporal Trends of Bull Trout in the East Fork Salmon River, Idaho

Abstract Because of their long-term listing under the Endangered Species Act, much interest has been placed on estimating population vital rates for Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus, but the biotic and abiotic factors that influence the interannual variability in those vital rates have rarely been evaluated. We used mark–recapture data to estimate fish growth, survival, and trends in abundance for fluvial adult Bull Trout in the East Fork Salmon River, Idaho. Over an 8-year period, a total of 1,205 individual Bull Trout were collected at a weir on the East Fork Salmon River (29 km upstream of its confluence with the Salmon River) during June–September, of which 420 were recaptures from prior years. Bull Trout varied in length from 215 to 756 mm and achieved a slightly larger asymptotic length and a slightly lower rate of growth relative to other fluvial and adfluvial Bull Trout populations. Apparent survival averaged 0.42 across all years, which was similar to previous studies estimating apparent survival for Bull Trout. The number of emigrating anadromous salmonid smolts in the upper Salmon River basin positively influenced East Fork Salmon River Bull Trout growth and survival, and survival was higher in years with lower annual discharge. Assessment of population growth via linear regression analysis indicated that the Bull Trout population was increasing during the study period (λ = 1.08; 95% confidence interval = 1.03–1.14). Our findings highlight the ecological link between the abundance of wild and hatchery Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Sockeye Salmon O. nerka, and steelhead O. mykiss smolts and growth and survival of adult Bull Trout in systems where these species occur in sympatry.

Roth, Curtis J.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Galactic civilizations: Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

The interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations is reexamined by potential theory; both numerical and analytical solutions are derived for the nonlinear partial differential equations which specify a range of relevant models, drawn from blast wave physics, soil science, and, especially, population biology. An essential feature of these models is that, for all civilizations, population growth must be limited by the carrying capacity of the environment. Dispersal is fundamentally a diffusion process; a density-dependent diffusivity describes interstellar emigration. Two models are considered: the first describing zero population growth (ZPG), and the second which also includes local growth and saturation of a planetary population, and for which an asymptotic traveling wave solution is found.

Newman, W. I.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Argonne Below Ground Model Part II: Population Dynamics, Exposure, and Fomite Transport

The Argonne Below Ground Model (BGM) was developed to provide a comprehensive simulation capability for analysis of subway threats at the level of the whole system. To assess the health consequences of an attack, BGM incorporates an agent-based population-effects component, described in this report, in which the movement of each person in the system is independently modeled, allowing their individual exposure, their resulting health effects, and their behavior to be determined.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗