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Comparison of radar-altimetry data over Greenland with surface topography derived from airborne laser altimetry

During the Summers of 1991, 1992, and 1993, NASA flew a scanning laser altimeter over transects of the Greenland ice sheet. Airplane location was measured precisely using differential Global Positioning System (GPS) surveying techniques. This allowed all altimetry data to be reduced to an estimate of ice surface elevations relative to the Earth ellipsoid. Repeat flights over the same areas indicate data consistency to 10 to 20 cm. Many of the aircraft flights were made along the ERS-1 'radar-altimeter footprint track' for a commissioning phase orbit. Rigorous comparison between the ERS-1 altimeter measurements and those from the laser altimeter will require analysis of individual ERS-1 altimeter waveforms, and since the information needed to do this is not yet available, results from comparison of TOPEX (Topology Ocean Experiment) Poseidon (T/P) radar altimetry data with laser data obtained at the northernmost limit of the T/P orbits are presented.

Thomas, R. H.↗

TOPEX/POSEIDON mission overview

TOPEX/POSEIDON is the first space mission specifically designed and conducted for studying the circulation of the world's oceans. A state-of-the-art radar altimetry system is used to measure the precise height of sea level, from which information on the ocean circulation is obtained. The satellite, launched on August 10, 1992, has been making observations of the global oceans with unprecedented accuracy since late September 1992. To meet the stringent measurement accuracy required for ocean circulation studies, a number of innovative improvements have been made to the mission design, including the first dual-frequency space-borne radar altimeter capable of retrieving the ionospheric delay of the radar signal, a three-frequency microwave radiometer for retrieving the signal delay caused by the water vapor in the troposphere, an optimal model of the Earth's gravity field and multiple satellite tracking systems for precision orbit determination. Additionally, the satellite also carries two experimental instruments to demonstrate new technologies: a single-frequency solid-state altimeter for the technology of low-power, low-weight altimeter and a Global Positioning System receiver for continuous,precise satellite tracking. The performance of the mission's measurement system has been tested by numerous verification studies. The results indicate that the root-sum-square accuracy of a single-pass sea level measurement is 4.7 cm for the TOPEX system and 5.1 cm for the POSEIDON system; both are more than a factor of 2 better than the requirement of 13.7 cm. This global data set is being analyzed to improve understanding of the global ocean circulation as well as the ocean tides, geodesy, and geodynamics, and ocean wind and waves. The mission is designed to last for at least 3 years with a possible extension to 6 years. The multiyear global data set will go a long way toward understanding the ocean circulation and its variability in relation to climate change. A summary of the mission's systems and their performance as well as the mission's science team is presented.

Fu, Lee-Lueng↗

On-orbit measurement of TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter antenna pattern

The NASA and CNES altimeters on the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite share a 1.5-m antenna. Early data from the NASA altimeter suggested that the beam was broader than measured preflight. An altimeter transponder was modified to output a relative measurement of received power. The instrument is briefly described. The instrument was deployed on the TOPEX ground track at the coast near Los Angeles, California. Measurements from three of these deployments are presented to show the on-orbit antenna pattern. The measured pattern is effectively broader than preflight in the central region, particularly the part of the pattern which corresponds to the tail of the altimeter waveform where the attitude is determined. This result is consistent with the general shape of both the TOPEX and Poseidon waveforms. As the TOPEX corrections which depend on values from the tail of the waveform have been compensated for deviations from the preflight measurements, no appreciable effect on the final data is expected.

Callahan, Philip S.↗

NASA Ocean Altimeter Pathfinder Project: Data Set Validation - Report 2

The NOAA/NASA Pathfinder program was created by the Earth Observing System (EOS) Program Office to determine how existing satellite-based data sets can be processed and used to study global change. The data sets are designed to be long time-series data processed with stable calibration and community consensus algorithms to better assist the research community. The Ocean Altimeter Pathfinder Project involves the reprocessing of all altimeter observations with a consistent set of improved algorithms, based on the results from TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P), into easy-to-use data sets for the oceanographic community for climate research. Details are currently presented in two technical reports: Report# 1: Data Processing Handbook Report #2: Data Set Validation This report describes the validation of the data sets against a global network of high quality tide gauge measurements and provides an estimate of the error budget. The first report describes the processing schemes used to produce the geodetic consistent data set comprised of SEASAT, GEOSAT, ERS-1, TOPEX/ POSEIDON, and ERS-2 satellite observations.

Koblinsky, C. J.↗

On the Evaluation of the GEOSAT Follow On (GFO) Altimeter

The NAVY GFO satellite was launched on February 10, 1998. The spacecraft system and the GPS instrument have experienced a number of problems that have prevented the mission from entering normal operations. However the GFO radar altimeter has been turned on a number of times and does appear to be performing well. We have been approved to help monitor the long term trends in the altimeter similar to the functions we have been performing for the Ocean Topography Experiment POSEIDON (TOPEX) radar altimeter. We will present some analysis of the pre-launch test data from the GFO altimeter to indicate the characteristics of the instrument. We will also present analysis of in-flight data indicating that the altimeter performance appears to be nominal. The current in-flight trends based on the calibration mode will be discussed.

Hancock, D. W., III↗

Evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino and La Nina: the Role of Altimetry in ENSO Studies and Prediction

El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to be a quasi-periodic coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon occurring roughly every 3-7 years. Its largest oceanic manifestations are found in the equatorial Pacific, but it is of global climatic significance. During the flight of the TOPEX]Poseidon altimeter, the equatorial Pacific was in the midst of an unusual period of prolonged ENSO warming in the mid-1990's. In 1997, the tropical Pacific witnessed the development of a major El Nino event, rivaling in strength the 1982-83 El Nino. The intensity of this El Nino, and its rapid intensification early in the calendar year, caught the scientific community by surprise. None of the forecast models, statistical or dynamical, captured these features of the 1997 El Nino, although those models that assimilated in situ ocean observations did better than most in predicting that the event would occur in 1997. The onset of the El Nino coincided with the occurrence of several westerly wind events in the western Pacific rather than to delayed oscillator physics. However, western Pacific sea levels were anomalously elevated a year and a half prior to the onset, which may have helped precondition the system to a particularly strong ENSO episode. The coming of La Nina was foreshadowed by large-scale drops in sea level in the western tropical Pacific and cyclonic wind stress curl anomalies far beyond the +\- 8 degrees latitude bounds of the TAO mooring array. In past El Nino events, the evolution of the coupled system could only be studied from the perspective of in situ observations. The 1997-1998 El Nino event will be the first time a major El Nino event will have been observed from start to finish via remotely-sensed measurements of sea surface topography, sea surface temperature, sea surface winds, ocean color, and precipitation. These observations have considerable potential for advancing coupled climate forecasts on time scales from seasons to decades. This presentation will address questions along the lines of: (1) What are the scientific problems in ENSO that can benefit most from altimetry data? (2) Are there any precursors in the global ocean-atmosphere system for the 1997-98 extreme event? (3) Is there a unique role of altimetry in detecting potential precursors?(4) Has Topex/Poseidon data been adequately used to improve ENSO forecasts? Is there any firm evidence? (6) What is the status of the transition of El Nino into a La Nina?

Busalacchi, Antonio J.↗

Proton Damage in Linear and Digital Optocouplers

Optocoupler failures occurred on the Topex-Poseidon spacecraft after about two years of operation. Later work in the laboratory showed that the failures were due to extreme sensitivity of LEDs within the optocouplers to displacement damage from protons. Although earlier work had been done on displacement damage in light-emitting diodes, none of the devices studied previously had been heavily damaged at the low radiation levels where the optocouplers failed in space. Subsequent work has shown that LED damage varies over an extremely wide range, depending on the particular manufacturing technology. This paper discusses proton degradation of linear and digital optocouplers. One obvious way to harden optocoupler technologies is to select LEDs that are more resistant to displacement damage. A direct comparison is made of degradation of a commercial linear optocoupler from one manufacturer with a modified version of the same device with a different LED technology. Other factors, including degradation of optical photoresponse and transistor -ain are also discussed, along with basic comparisons of digital and analog optocouplers. Linear optocouplers are designed with somewhat different requirements than digital optocouplers, which not only affects their radiation response but also the interpretation of radiation test data.

Johnston, A. H.↗

Detecting 1mm/Year Signals in Altimetric Global Sea Level: Effect of Atmospheric Water Vapor and Precipitation

Several research efforts exist to use Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/ Projet d'Observatorie de Surveillance et d'Etudes Integrees de la Dynamique des Oceans (Poseidon) (T/P) to detect changes in global sea level possibly associated with climate change. This requires much better than 1 mm/yr accuracy, something that none of the instruments in T/P [or the European Remote Sensing (ERS-2) satellite, or the U.S. Navy's Geosat Follow-On (GFO) satellite] were designed for. This work focuses on the ability of the T/P microwave radiometer (TMR) to retrieve the path delay due to atmospheric water vapor along the altimeter's path with accuracy in the time changes below 1 mm/yr on global average. In collaboration with Stephen Keihm of JPL and Christopher Ruf of Pennsylvania State University, we compared TMR path delay (PD) estimates with atmospheric precipitable water (PW) from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) aboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) series of satellites for 1992-1998 to selected radiosondes, and we also looked at the brightness temperatures measured by TMR in the lowest 1% of the histogram. The conclusion is that TMR had a slow instrumental drift, associated with the 18-GHz channel, which causes an approximate underestimation of water vapor at a rate equivalent to 1.2 mm/yr in path delay between 1992 and 1996; this effect stopped and no drift is detected in 1997. The same study concluded that there is no detectable scale error (one which is proportional to measured vapor) in TMR. In related work, carried out with graduate student Damien Cailliau, we investigated the relative abilities of TMR, SSMI and the UP dual-frequency radar altimeter to detect rain, relative to a climatology of shipborne observations. Rain is a crucial but poorly measured variable in studies of the climate system, and a dedicated mission, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), was recently launched to measure it. However, the climatologies built over the past 10 years used passive radiometers, such as SSMI, or infrared observation from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) geostationary satellites. We concluded that the dual-frequency altimeter does an excellent job at retrieving rain on scales much smaller than the passive radiometer, and a better job at retrieving total precipitation (rain as well as snow) at high latitudes. This work improves the sea level observations by allowing better flagging of observations contaminated by rain, and more importantly, provides an alternative way to measure rainfall over the oceans.

Zlotnicki, Victor↗

Remote Sensing of Global Wetland Dynamics

Although natural wetlands only cover about 4% of the earth's ice-free land surface, they are the world's largest methane (CH4) source and the only one dominated by climate. In addition, wetlands affect climate by modulating temperatures and heat fluxes, storing water, increasing evaporation, and altering the seasonality of runoff and river discharge to the oceans. Current CH4 emissions from wetlands are relatively well understood but the sensitivity of wetlands and their emissions to climate variations remains the largest uncertainty in the global CH4 cycle and could strongly influence predictions of future climate. Therefore, characterizing climate-sensitive processes prevailing in the world's wetlands is crucial to understanding and predicting physical and biogeochemical responses of wetlands to interannual and longer-term climate variations. Recent research has resulted in the first generation of models to predict methane emissions from wetlands but the models must still be applied to static data on wetland distributions. Moreover, no models currently exist to realistically predict the distribution and dynamics of wetlands themselves for the current, or any other, climate. The dominant obstacle to modeling wetland dynamics has been lack of remote sensing techniques and data useful for characterizing quantitatively the seasonal and interannual variations of wetlands. We report on initial remote sensing studies undertaken to validate a global hydrological model linking rivers, takes and wetlands. Using a combination of SSM/I microwave and TOPEX Poseidon altimetry data sets, we developed and applied techniques to quantify inundation extent and duration for several large wetlands in tropical Africa and South America. Our initial results indicate that seasonally-inundated wetlands can be well characterized over large spatial scales and at monthly time scales using these remote sensing data. The results also confirm that currently available remote sensing products can be applied to provide crucial data to the research community modeling global hydrological and biogeochemical cycles.

Matthews, Elaine↗

Hawaii Ocean Mixing Experiment: Program Summary

It is becoming apparent that insufficient mixing occurs in the pelagic ocean to maintain the large scale thermohaline circulation. Observed mixing rates fall a factor of ten short of classical indices such as Munk's "Abyssal Recipe." The growing suspicion is that most of the mixing in the sea occurs near topography. Exciting recent observations by Polzin et al., among others, fuel this speculation. If topographic mixing is indeed important, it must be acknowledged that its geographic distribution, both laterally and vertically, is presently unknown. The vertical distribution of mixing plays a critical role in the Stommel Arons model of the ocean interior circulation. In recent numerical studies, Samelson demonstrates the extreme sensitivity of flow in the abyssal ocean to the spatial distribution of mixing. We propose to study the topographic mixing problem through an integrated program of modeling and observation. We focus on tidally forced mixing as the global energetics of this process have received (and are receiving) considerable study. Also, the well defined frequency of the forcing and the unique geometry of tidal scattering serve to focus the experiment design. The Hawaiian Ridge is selected as a study site. Strong interaction between the barotropic tide and the Ridge is known to take place. The goals of the Hawaiian Ocean Mixing Experiment (HOME) are to quantify the rate of tidal energy loss to mixing at the Ridge and to identify the mechanisms by which energy is lost and mixing generated. We are challenged to develop a sufficiently comprehensive picture that results can be generalized from Hawaii to the global ocean. To achieve these goals, investigators from five institutions have designed HOME, a program of historic data analysis, modeling and field observation. The Analysis and Modeling efforts support the design of the field experiments. As the program progresses, a global model of the barotropic (depth independent) tide, and two models of the baroclinic (depth varying) tide, all validated with near-Ridge data, will be applied, to reveal the mechanisms of tidal energy conversion along the Ridge, and allow spatial and temporal integration of the rate of conversion. Field experiments include a survey to identify "hot spots" of enhanced mixing and barotropic to baroclinic conversion, a Nearfield study identifying the dominant mechanisms responsible for topographic mixing, and a Farfield program which quantifies the barotropic energy flux convergence at the Ridge and the flux divergence associated with low mode baroclinic waves radiation. The difference is a measure of the tidal power available for mixing at the Ridge. Field work is planned from years 2000 through 2002, with analysis and modeling efforts extending through early 2006. If successful, HOME will yield an understanding of the dominant topographic mixing processes applicable throughout the global ocean. It will advance understanding of two central problems in ocean science, the maintenance of the abyssal stratification, and the dissipation of the tides. HOME data will be used to improve the parameterization of dissipation in models which presently assimilate TOPEX-POSEIDON observations. The improved understanding of the dynamics and spatial distribution of mixing processes will benefit future long-term programs such as CLIVAR.

Ray, Richard D.↗

Evaluation of GEOSAT Follow-On Precise Orbit Ephemeris

The GEOSAT Follow-On spacecraft (GFO-l), launched in 1998, began continuous radar altimeter coverage of the oceans in 2000, and after an extensive series of calibration campaigns in 1999 and 2000 was finally accepted by the US Navy on November 29, 2000. By providing high quality altimeter data, GFO can supplement TOPEX/POSEIDON(T/P), ERS-1, and ERS-2 data, providing a different synoptic sampling of the oceans with its 17-day ground track repeat cycle. Altimeter analysis suggests GFO is capable of POSEIDON class altimetry, with orbit error the largest contributor to the GFO altimeter error budget. Satellite laser ranging (SLR), especially in combination with altimeter crossover data, offer the only means of determining high-quality precise orbits. SLR tracking is also augmented by Doppler (Tranet style) beacons. These data were used to tune the gravity field and macromodel (3D representation of the spacecraft geometry and surface properties). Beginning with January 2000 GSFC has produced a 2.5 year span of the Precision Orbit Ephemeris (POE) intended for use on the GFO GDR and for the Pathfinder Project. Using GFO GDR and IGDR altimeter data from NOAA, a two year span of POE orbits are evaluated with respect to the TOPEX orbits by adjusting the GFO data into the TOPEX frame with the help of TOPEX/GFO altimeter crossovers. A 2.5 year span of orbits are also evaluated using tracking data residual analysis, GFO altimeter crossover residual analysis, and direct orbit comparison. In an effort to improve the current POE orbit several ideas are considered, including using recent gravity models which include CHAMP data, the reduced-dynamic approach, and including TOPEX/GFO altimeter crossover data in the orbit solution.

Lemoine, Frank G.↗

(abstract) Altimeter Calibration and Geophysical Monitoring from Collocated Measurements at the Harvest Oil Platform

Prior to the launch of TOPEX/ Poseidon in August 1992, NASA established its primary in situ verification site on the Harvest oil platform located in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of central California. Data from a suite of geodetic and oceanographic instruments attached to the platform have been combined to yield a precise record of absolute sea level simce the beginning of the mission. Critical to the computation of this geocentric sea level record is the precise determination of the platform geodetic height and the vertical velocity in the global terrestrial reference frame.We compare estimates of the platform height and vertical velocity from global positioning system (GPS) data alone and from a combination of GPS and satellite laser ranging (SLR) information. Current estimates suggest the platform is subsiding at a rate of about 8 mm per year. This height information is combined with in situ tide gauge measurements of sea level relative to a platform reference mark in order to produce a continuous record of the local geocentric sea height.

Pacific Ocean geodetics oceanographic geocentric s↗

Towards Improved Forecasts of Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulations over the Complex Terrain of the Eastern Mediterranean

Forecasting atmospheric and oceanic circulations accurately over the Eastern Mediterranean has proved to be an exceptional challenge. The existence of fine-scale topographic variability (land/sea coverage) and seasonal dynamics variations can create strong spatial gradients in temperature, wind and other state variables, which numerical models may have difficulty capturing. The Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR) is one of the main operational centers for wave forecasting in the eastern Mediterranean. Currently, HCMR's operational numerical weather/ocean prediction model is based on the coupled Eta/Princeton Ocean Model (POM). Since 1999, HCMR has also operated the POSEIDON floating buoys as a means of state-of-the-art, real-time observations of several oceanic and surface atmospheric variables. This study attempts a first assessment at improving both atmospheric and oceanic prediction by initializing a regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model with high-resolution sea surface temperatures (SST) from remotely sensed platforms in order to capture the small-scale characteristics.

Chronis, Themis↗

Global Dayside Ionospheric Uplift and Enhancement Associated with Interplanetary Electric Fields

The interplanetary shock/electric field event of 5-6 November 2001 is analyzed using ACE interplanetary data. The consequential ionospheric effects are studied using GPS receiver data from the CHAMP and SAC-C satellites and altimeter data from the TOPEX/ Poseidon satellite. Data from ~100 ground-based GPS receivers as well as Brazilian Digisonde and Pacific sector magnetometer data are also used. The dawn-to-dusk interplanetary electric field was initially ~33 mV/m just after the forward shock (IMF BZ = -48 nT) and later reached a peak value of ~54 mV/m 1 hour and 40 min later (BZ = -78 nT). The electric field was ~45 mV/m (BZ = -65 nT) 2 hours after the shock. This electric field generated a magnetic storm of intensity DST = -275 nT. The dayside satellite GPS receiver data plus ground-based GPS data indicate that the entire equatorial and midlatitude (up to +/-50(deg) magnetic latitude (MLAT)) dayside ionosphere was uplifted, significantly increasing the electron content (and densities) at altitudes greater than 430 km (CHAMP orbital altitude). This uplift peaked ~2 1/2 hours after the shock passage. The effect of the uplift on the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) lasted for 4 to 5 hours. Our hypothesis is that the interplanetary electric field ''promptly penetrated'' to the ionosphere, and the dayside plasma was convected (by E x B) to higher altitudes. Plasma upward transport/convergence led to a ~55-60% increase in equatorial ionospheric TEC to values above ~430 km (at 1930 LT). This transport/convergence plus photoionization of atmospheric neutrals at lower altitudes caused a 21% TEC increase in equatorial ionospheric TEC at ~1400 LT (from ground-based measurements). During the intense electric field interval, there was a sharp plasma ''shoulder'' detected at midlatitudes by the GPS receiver and altimeter satellites. This shoulder moves equatorward from -54(deg) to -37(deg) MLAT during the development of the main phase of the magnetic storm. We presume this to be an ionospheric signature of the plasmapause and its motion. The total TEC increase of this shoulder is ~80%. Part of this increase may be due to a "superfountain effect." The dayside ionospheric TEC above ~430 km decreased to values ~45% lower than quiet day values 7 to 9 hours after the beginning of the electric field event. The total equatorial ionospheric TEC decrease was ~16%. This decrease occurred both at midlatitudes and at the equator. We presume that thermospheric winds and neutral composition changes produced by the storm-time Joule heating, disturbance dynamo electric fields, and electric fields at auroral and subauroral latitudes are responsible for these decreases.

ionosphere↗

GSFC DORIS Contribution to ITRF2008

The NASA GSFC DORIS analysis center has provided weekly DORIS solutions from November 1992 to January 2009 (839 SINEX files) of station positions and Earth Orientation Parameters for inclusion in the DORIS contribution to ITRF2008. The NASA GSFC GEODYN orbit determination software was used to process the orbits and produce the normal equations. The weekly SINEX gscwd 10 submissions included DORIS data from Envisat, TOPEX!Poseidon, SPOT-2, SPOT-3, SPOT-4, SPOT-5. The orbits were mostly seven days in length (except for weeks with data gaps or maneuvers). The processing used the GRACE-derived EIGEN-GL04S1 gravity model, updated modeling for time-variable gravity, the GOT4.7 ocean tide model and tuned satellite-specific macromodels for SPOT -2, SPOT -3, SPOT -4, SPOT-5 and TOPEX/Poseidon. The University College London (UCL) radiation pressure model for Envisat improves nonconservative force modeling for this satellite, reducing the median residual empirical daily along-track accelerations from 3.75 x 10-9 m/s(exp 2) with the a priori macromodel to 0.99 x 10-9 m/s2 with the UCL model. For the SPOT and Envisat DORIS satellite orbits from 2003 to 2008, we obtain average RMS overlaps of 0.8-0.9 cm in the radial direction, 2.1-3.4 cm cross-track, and 1.7-2.3 cm along-track. The RMS orbit differences between Envisat DORIS-only and SLR & DORIS orbits are 1.1 cm radially, 6.4 cm along-track and 3.7 cm cross-track and are characterized by systematic along-track mean offsets due to the Envisat DORIS system time bias of +/- 5-1O micro s. We obtain a good agreement between the geometrically-determined geocenter parameters and geocenter parameters determined dynamically from analysis of the degree one terms of the geopotential. The intrinsic RMS weekly position repeatability with respect to the IDS-3 combination ranges from 2.5 to 3.0 cm in 1993-1994 to 1.5 cm in 2007-2008.

Le Bail, K.↗

Investigating the Performance of the Jason-2/OSTM Radar Altimeter Over Lakes and Reservoirs

Many inland water investigations utilize archival and near-real time radar altimetry data to enable observation of the variation in surface water level. A multi-altimeter approach allows a more global outlook with improved spatial resolution, and combined long-term observations improve statistical analyses. Central to all programs is a performance assessment of each instrument. Here, we focus on data quantity and quality pertaining to the Poseidon-3 radar altimeter onboard the Jason-2/OSTM satellite.Utilizing an interim data set (IGDR), studies show that the new on-board DIODE/median and DIODE/DEM tracking modes are performing well, acquiring and maintaining the majority of lake and reservoir surfaces in varying terrains. The 20-Hz along-track resolution of the data, and particularly the availability of the range output from the ice-retracker algorithm, also improves the number of valid height measurements. Based on test-case lakes and reservoirs, output from the ice-retracker algorithm is also seen to have a clear advantage over the ocean-retracker having better height stability across calm and icy surfaces, a greater ability to gain coastline waters, and less sensitivity to loss of water surface when there is island contamination in the radar echo. Such on-board tracking and postprocessing retracking enables the lake waters to be quickly gained after coastline crossing. Values can range from <0.1 s to 2.5 s, but the majority of measurements are obtained in less than 0.4 s or <2.3 km from the coast. Validation exercises reveal that targets of 150 km2 surface area and 0.8 km width are able to be monitored offering greater potential to acquire lakes in the 100 C300 km2 size-category. Time series of height variations are also found to be accurate to 3 to 33 cm rms depending on target size and the presence of winter ice. These findings are an improvement over the IGDR/GDR results from the predecessor Jason-1 and TOPEX/Poseidon missions and can satisfy the accuracy requirements of both the science-related and operational lake study programs.

Birkett, C. M.↗

An Assessment of the Skill of GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecasts

The seasonal forecast skill of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office coupled global climate model (CGCM) is evaluated based on an ensemble of 9-month lead forecasts for the period 1993 to 2010. The results from the current version (V2) of the CGCM consisting of the GEOS-5 AGM coupled to the MOM4 ocean model are compared with those from an earlier version (V1) in which the AGCM (the NSIPP model) was coupled to the Poseidon Ocean Model. It was found that the correlation skill of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts is generally better in V2, especially over the sub-tropical and tropical central and eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the improvement in skill in V2 mainly comes from better forecasts of the developing phase of ENSO from boreal spring to summer. The skill of ENSO forecasts initiated during the boreal winter season, however, shows no improvement in terms of correlation skill, and is in fact slightly worse in terms of root mean square error (RMSE). The degradation of skill is found to be due to an excessive ENSO amplitude. For V1, the ENSO amplitude is too strong in forecasts starting in boreal spring and summer, which causes large RMSE in the forecast. For V2, the ENSO amplitude is slightly stronger than that in observations and V1 for forecasts starting in boreal winter season. An analysis of the terms in the SST tendency equation, shows that this is mainly due to an excessive zonal advective feedback. In addition, V2 forecasts that are initiated during boreal winter season, exhibit a slower phase transition of El Nino, which is consistent with larger amplitude of ENSO after the ENSO peak season. It is found that this is due to weak discharge of equatorial Warm Water Volume (WWV). In both observations and V1, the discharge of equatorial WWV leads the equatorial geostrophic easterly current so as to damp the El Nino starting in January. This process is delayed by about 2 months in V2 due to the slower phase transition of the equatorial zonal current from westerly to easterly.

GMAO↗

2020 I.F._Wickizer_New CE Tool for MDC_Final Report

Our team surveyed available products and found no readily-available/U.S. commercial or Agency products which supported our envisioned workflow for the Mission Design Center and the concurrent engineering (CE) process we use. Therefore, we sought to create our own CE tool. Changes in agency policy during the performance period allowed us to shift direction and instead adapt our previous legacy tool (Atlas) to include the collaboration features we sorely needed. Atlas relied upon databases for its back-end data management. Poseidon, the work proposed under this effort, was also intended to leverage from that previous back end (in part). However, in May 2021, EUSO announced that “SBU/CUI Information Can Now Be Shared/Stored Within O365 Without Encryption.” Consequently, we made the decision to use O365 in place of our back end. This change provides for version history, collaborative simultaneous editing, and other collaboration tools agency-wide that were previously unavailable with the old database architecture. The new Atlas O365 has more flexibility and capability for users. It’s now easier for users to switch between using the tool for concurrent engineering and individual subsystem engineering. A version was delivered for concurrent engineering of small satellite missions; so far, it has been used successfully on the Aeolus MDC study. Atlas O365 will facilitate the design and assessment of Small Satellite Missions at low Concept Maturity Level at Ames. Feasibility assessments on mission concepts still at a low CML permit strategic planning and decision-making efforts at the center level about which concepts should be pursued and proposed.

concurrent engineering↗