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At least 37 records · Page 2

Application of remote sensing precipitation data and the $\mathrm{CONNECT}$ algorithm to investigate spatiotemporal variations of heavy precipitation: Case study of major floods across Iran (Spring 2019)

In recent years, the number of floods following unprecedented rainfall events have increased in Iran during early spring (March 21st to April 20th, referred to in Iran as the month of “Farvadin”). While numerous studies have addressed changes in climate extremes and precipitation trends at different temporal scales from daily to annual across the country, analyses of short-duration and heavy precipitation, especially during recent years, are rarely considered. Furthermore, most studies investigate the variations in extremes and total precipitation using a limited number of synoptic weather stations across Iran. Here this study assesses the variations in heavy precipitation (precipitation with intensities greater than or equal to 3 mm/3 h) at 0.04° spatial and 3-hourly temporal resolution during the month of Farvardin. In addition, the effect of atmospheric river conditions over Iran and their possible link to intensifying heavy precipitation is explored. For this purpose, the CONNected-objECT (CONNECT) algorithm is applied on a precipitation dataset, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS), and an Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) dataset from the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2). The results suggest that the increase in the number of floods in recent years is related to the increase in the intensity and volume of heavy precipitation events, although the frequency and duration of heavy precipitation events have not changed significantly. Furthermore, the results show that atmospheric river conditions over the country are present during the same window as each year’s most extreme events. It is found that 8 out of 13 of the largest ARs over Iran come from moisture plumes with pathways over the African and Red Sea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting nepheline precipitation in waste glasses using ternary submixture model and machine learning

Nepheline precipitation in nuclear waste glasses during vitrification can be detrimental due to its negative effect on chemical durability. Developing models to accurately predict nepheline precipitation from compositions is important to increase waste loading since existing models can be overly conservative. In this study, an expanded dataset containing 955 glasses was compiled from literature data, where 355 glasses are for high-level waste (HLW). Previously developed submixture models were refitted using the new dataset, where a misclassification rate of 7.8% was achieved. Nine machine learning (ML) algorithms (e.g., k-nearest neighbor, Gaussian process regression, artificial neural network, support vector machine, decision tree, etc.) were applied to evaluate their ability of predicting nepheline precipitation from compositions. Model accuracy, precision, recall/sensitivity, and F1 score were systemically compared between different ML algorithms and modeling protocols. Good model prediction with an accuracy ~0.9 (misclassification rate of ~10%) was observed with different algorithms under certain protocol. This study evaluated various ML models to predict nepheline precipitations in waste glasses, highlighting the importance of data preparation, modeling protocol, and their effect on model stability and reproducibility. The results provide insights into applying ML to predict glass properties and suggest areas for future research on modeling nepheline precipitations.

Lu, Xiaonan↗

Precipitation Recycling and the Vertical Distribution of Local and Remote Sources of Water for Precipitation

Precipitation recycling is defined as the amount of water that evaporates from a region that precipitates within the same region. This is also interpreted as the local source of water for precipitation. In this study, the local and remote sources of water for precipitation have been diagnosed through the use of passive constituent tracers that represent regional evaporative sources along with their transport and precipitation. We will discuss the differences between this method and the simpler bulk diagnostic approach to precipitation recycling. A summer seasonal simulation has been analyzed for the regional sources of the United States Great Plains precipitation. While the tropical Atlantic Ocean (including the Gulf of Mexico) and the local continental sources of precipitation are most dominant, the vertically integrated column of water contains substantial water content originating from the Northern Pacific Ocean, which is not precipitated. The vertical profiles of regional water sources indicate that local Great Plains source of water dominates the lower troposphere, predominantly in the PBL. However, the Pacific Ocean source is dominant over a large portion of the middle to upper troposphere. The influence of the tropical Atlantic Ocean is reasonably uniform throughout the column. While the results are not unexpected given the formulation of the model's convective parameterization, the analysis provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of local evaporation on the occurrence of convective precipitation in the GCM. Further, these results suggest that local source of water is not well mixed throughout the vertical column.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

On the relationship between precipitation extreme and local temperature over eastern China based on convection permitting simulations: roles of different moisture processes and precipitation types

The Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) scaling, which indicates a roughly 7% increase in saturated water vapor per 1 °C increase in temperature, can serve as a strong constraint linking the intensity of precipitation extremes and local temperature. However, the relationship between precipitation extreme and local temperature (referred to as the PE-T relationship) does not always follow the CC scaling and is highly dependent on climate regimes. In this study, we investigated the impacts of different moisture processes and precipitation types on the PE-T relationship over eastern China during the summertime based on convection-permitting model simulations. Consistent with observations, the simulated intensity of precipitation extremes increases with temperature at a rate close to CC (double-CC) scaling below (above) 20 °C. When the temperature exceeds 25 °C, precipitation intensity starts to drop. Precipitation extremes are mainly contributed by the stratiform, MCS (i.e., mesoscale convective system) convective, and non-MCS convective precipitation at low (< 20 °C), medium (20–25 °C), and high (> 25 °C) temperatures, respectively, suggesting that the double-CC scaling occurs when convective types become dominant, while the negative scaling at high temperatures is attributed to the reduced horizontal scale of convection. Corresponding to the reduced intensity of precipitation at high temperatures, there are stronger divergence and subsidence in the low-level atmosphere, which is probably caused by the net cooling associated with the enhanced melting and evaporation of falling hydrometeors due to the lower relative humidity in the low-level atmosphere. Overall, our findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the temperature dependence of precipitation extremes in eastern China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Precipitation-site competition in duplex stainless steels: Cu clusters vs spinodal decomposition interfaces as nucleation sites during thermal aging

Competing microstructural evolution mechanisms can exist simultaneously when duplex stainless steels are operating for several decades in a high temperature service environment. Such competition between different microstructural evolution pathways can be difficult to ascertain using simple model alloy systems necessitating detailed structural and compositional analysis of phase transformation mechanisms in complex alloys Thus, in this study duplex stainless steels with complex but well understood chemistries were used to investigate the relative importance of different heterogeneous nucleation sites – specifically spinodal decomposition and Cu clustering – on precipitation of Ni-Si-Mn particles during long term thermal aging. Precipitation of Ni-Si-Mn particles in duplex stainless steels and ferritic steels during thermal aging and irradiation is known to have profound effect on mechanical properties. Using duplex stainless steels with custom modified compositions along with atom probe tomography characterization and first-passage kinetic Monte Carlo (FPKMC) simulations it is revealed that while the interface between Cr and Fe formed during spinodal decomposition can be a pathway for diffusion of Ni, Si, Mn, and Cu, it is not a site that encourages precipitation of Ni-Si-Mn rich particles. Instead, the presence of a higher concentration of Cu in these steels leads to formation of small Cu clusters with high energy interfaces that act as nucleation sites for Ni-Si-Mn particles because of its strong interaction particularly with Ni increasing the chemical driving force for precipitation. These results will help inform predictive models for the use of duplex stainless steels and other precipitation-hardened alloys for extended operation at high temperatures.

Duplex stainless steel, Thermal aging, Precipitati↗

A Hybrid Experimental and Theoretical Approach to Optimize Recovery of Rare Earth Elements from Acid Mine Drainage Precipitates by Oxalic Acid Precipitation

The development of processing techniques for the extraction of rare earth elements and critical minerals (REE/CM) from acid mine drainage precipitates (AMDp) has attracted increased interest in recent years. Processes under development often utilize a standard hydrometallurgical approach that includes leaching and solvent extraction followed by oxalic acid precipitation and calcination to produce a final rare earth oxide product. Impurities such as Ca, Al, Mn, Fe and Mg can be detrimental in the oxalate precipitation step and a survey of the literature showed limited data pertaining to the REE precipitation efficiency in solutions with high impurity concentrations. As such, a systematic laboratory-scale precipitation study was performed on a strip solution generated by the acid leaching and solvent extraction of an AMDp feedstock to identify the optimal processing conditions that maximize REE precipitation efficiency and product purity while minimizing the oxalic acid dosage. Given the unique chemical characteristics of AMDp, the feed solution utilized in this study contained a moderate concentration of REEs (440 mg/L) as well a significant concentration (>7000 mg/L total) of non-REE contaminants such as Ca, Al, Mn, Fe and Mg. Initially, a theoretical basis for the required oxalic acid dose, optimal pH and predicted precipitation efficiency was established by solution equilibrium calculations. Following the solution chemistry calculations, bench-scale precipitation experiments were conducted and these test results indicate that a pH of 1.5 to 2, a reaction time of more than 2 h and an oxalic acid dosage of 30 to 40 g/L optimized the REEs recovery of at ~95% to nearly 100% for individual REE species. The test results validated the optimal pH predicted by the solution chemistry calculations (1.5 to 5); however, the predicted dosage needed for complete REE recovery (10 g/L) was significantly lower than the experimentally-determined dosage of 30 to 40 g/L. The reason for this discrepancy was determined to be due to the large concentration of impurities and large number of potential metal complexes that cause inaccuracies in the solution equilibrium calculations. Based on these findings, a hybrid experimental and theoretical approach is proposed for future oxalic acid precipitation optimization studies.

oxalic acid precipitation↗

Understanding Oceanic Heavy Precipitation Using Scatterometer, Satellite Precipitation, and Reanalysis Products

The primary aim of this study is to understand the heavy precipitation events over Oceanic regions using vector wind retrievals from space based scatterometers in combination with precipitation products from satellite and model reanalysis products. Heavy precipitation over oceans is a less understood phenomenon and this study tries to fill in the gaps which may lead us to a better understanding of heavy precipitation over oceans. Various phenomenon may lead to intense precipitation viz. MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation), Extratropical cyclones, MCSs (Mesoscale Convective Systems), that occur inside or outside the tropics and if we can decipher the physical mechanisms behind occurrence of heavy precipitation, then it may lead us to a better understanding of such events which further may help us in building more robust weather and climate models. During a heavy precipitation event, scatterometer wind observations may lead us to understand the governing dynamics behind that event near the surface. We hypothesize that scatterometer winds can observe significant changes in the near-surface circulation and that there are global relationships among these quantities. To the degree to which this hypothesis fails, we will learn about the regional behavior of heavy precipitation-producing systems over the ocean. We use a "precipitation feature" (PF) approach to enable statistical analysis of a large database of raining features.

Winds↗

Climatology of Global Precipitation Measurement Mission Precipitation Regimes and Implications for Global Estimates of Vertical Winds

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Validation Network (VN) framework leverages over 118 ground-based polarimetric Doppler radars to validate a large subset of precipitation measurements and retrievals from the GPM Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR). Recently, GPM DPR reflectivity profiles within the VN have been classified according to their convective regime using unsupervised machine learning techniques. The archetypal regimes are stratiform, convective, mixed stratiform-convective (e.g., transition regions), and “other” (e.g., peripheral regions of light precipitation). Subcategories within these four primary regimes vary according to the characteristic depth of included reflectivity profiles, resulting in 12 main GPM DPR precipitation profile categories. Polarimetry of ground-based Doppler radars in the VN offers additional insights into the types of precipitation, while pairs of radars positioned near each other enable retrieval of vertical winds via dual-Doppler analysis. Geometrically matched to the DPR reflectivity profiles in the GPM VN, these ground-based data and retrievals contribute more detailed characterization of the distinct kinematic and microphysical structures associated with each of the 12 DPR precipitation regimes. DPR reflectivity profiles linked with wind in the VN are restricted to GPM overpasses of proximal radar pairs that allow dual-Doppler analysis. Although a limited subset of DPR profiles in the VN are matched with vertical motion, agreement between the reflectivity structures paired with wind data and those of the greater DPR dataset in the VN suggest that estimates of vertical motion may be inferred in regions without ground-based measurements. We present a climatology of the 12 convective regimes identified within the DPR VN dataset as well as early efforts to estimate the kinematic and microphysical structures of precipitation profiles within the greater GPM DPR dataset by applying machine learning techniques. Precipitation data paired with global estimates of vertical winds from these efforts offer early insight to and support upcoming missions to retrieve convective mass flux, including the Investigation of Convective Updrafts (INCUS) in the Tropics and the global Atmosphere Observing System (AOS).

Precipitation↗

PERSIANN-CCS-CDR, a 3-hourly 0.04° global precipitation climate data record for heavy precipitation studies

Accurate long-term global precipitation estimates, especially for heavy precipitation rates, at fine spatial and temporal resolutions is vital for a wide variety of climatological studies. Most of the available operational precipitation estimation datasets provide either high spatial resolution with short-term duration estimates or lower spatial resolution with long-term duration estimates. Furthermore, previous research has stressed that most of the available satellite-based precipitation products show poor performance for capturing extreme events at high temporal resolution. Therefore, there is a need for a precipitation product that reliably detects heavy precipitation rates with fine spatiotemporal resolution and a longer period of record. Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CCS-CDR) is designed to address these limitations. This dataset provides precipitation estimates at 0.04° spatial and 3-hourly temporal resolutions from 1983 to present over the global domain of 60°S to 60°N. Evaluations of PERSIANN-CCS-CDR and PERSIANN-CDR against gauge and radar observations show the better performance of PERSIANN-CCS-CDR in representing the spatiotemporal resolution, magnitude, and spatial distribution patterns of precipitation, especially for extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Magnitude and Variability of Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-Year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-Year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 1999 the northern mid-latitudes appear to be drying, the southern mid-latitudes have gotten wetter, and there is a mixed signal in the tropics. The relation between this field of trends and the relation to the frequency of El Nino events during this time period is explored. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. These El Nino minus La Nina composites of normalized precipitation show the usual positive, or wet, anomaly over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean with the negative, or dry, anomaly over the maritime continent along with an additional negative anomaly over Brazil and the Atlantic Ocean extending into Africa and a positive anomaly over the Horn of Africa and the western Indian Ocean. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern US and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. Further to the west a negative anomaly extends southeastward again from the Maritime Continent across the South Pacific and through the Drake Passage. The N.H. counterpart crosses the North Pacific and southern Canada. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation ( both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The recent (1998-present) TRMM observations are compared with the similar period of GPCP analyses with very good agreement in terms of pattern and generally good agreement with regard to magnitude. However, there still are differences among the individual TRMM products using passive and active microwave techniques and these need to be resolved before longer-term products such as the GPCP analyses can be validated.

Adler, Robert F.↗

Variations and Trends in Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-Year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-Year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 2000 the tropics have pattern of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. Further to the west a negative anomaly extends southeastward again from the Maritime Continent across the South Pacific and through the Drake Passage. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation (both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The recent (1998-present) TRMM observations are compared with the similar period of GPCP analyses with very good agreement in terms of pattern and generally good agreement with regard to magnitude. However, there still are differences among the individual TRMM products using passive and active microwave techniques and these need to be resolved before longer-term products such as the GPCP analyses can be validated.

Adler, Robert F.↗

Precipitation Retrievals from Passive Microwave Cross-Track Sensors: The Precipitation Retrieval and Profiling Scheme

The retrieval of precipitation (snowfall and rainfall) from satellite sensors on a global basis is essential in aiding our knowledge and understanding of the Earth System and to many societal applications. Measurements from surface-based instruments are essentially limited to populated regions, necessitating the use of satellite-based observations to provide estimates of precipitation across the whole of the Earth’s surface. The temporal and spatial variability of precipitation requires adequate sampling, especially at finer resolutions. It is therefore necessary to exploit all available data from precipitation-capable satellites to ensure the proper representation of precipitation. To date, the estimation of precipitation using passive microwave observations has been largely concentrated upon the conically-scanning imaging instruments, with relatively few techniques exploiting the observations made from the cross-track sounders. This paper describes the development of the Precipitation Retrieval and Profiling Scheme (PRPS) to retrieve precipitation from cross-track sensors, together with its performance against surface radar data and other satellite precipitation retrievals.

Chris Kidd↗

On the Importance of Precipitation‐Induced Surface Sensible Heat Flux for Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in the Maritime Continent

Abstract The Maritime Continent (MC) exhibits a pronounced diurnal cycle in precipitation, with many high‐resolution models overestimating the diurnal peak and predicting earlier precipitation over the islands than observed. We hypothesize that part of this model bias comes from ignoring precipitation‐induced surface sensible heat flux ( Q P ). To test this conjecture, we performed simulations with and without Q P for April 2009 and June 2006. The inclusion of Q P reduced the bias in diurnal peak precipitation amplitude by 83% in April 2009 and 23% in June 2006. Similarly, the bias in precipitation peak timing decreased by 26% and 15%, respectively. This bias reduction was even more prominent during periods of heavier rainfall. This improvement in both the amplitude and phase of diurnal precipitation also led to a reduction in bias for total precipitation by ∼10%. These findings suggest that Q P cannot be neglected over the MC, particularly during heavy precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Synthesis of Nano-Oxide Precipitates by Implantation of Ti, Y and O Ions in Fe-10%Cr: Towards an Understanding of Precipitation in Oxide Dispersion-Strengthened (ODS) Steels

The properties of oxide dispersion-strengthened steels are highly dependent on the nature and size distribution of their constituting nano-oxide precipitates. A fine control of the processes of synthesis would enable the optimization of pertinent properties for use in various energy systems. This control, however, requires knowledge of the precise mechanisms of nucleation and growth of the nanoprecipitates, which are still a matter of debate. In the present study, nano-oxide precipitates were produced via the implantation of Y, Ti, and O ions in two different sequential orders in an Fe-10%Cr matrix that was subsequently thermally annealed. The results show that the oxides that precipitate are not necessarily favoured thermodynamically, but rather result from complex kinetics aspects related to the interaction between the implanted elements and induced defects. When Y is implanted first, the formation of nanoprecipitates with characteristics similar to those in conventionally produced ODS steels, especially with a core/shell structure, is evidenced. In contrast, when implantation starts with Ti, the precipitation of yttria during subsequent high-temperature annealing is totally suppressed, and corundum Cr 2 O 3 precipitates instead. Moreover, the systematic involvement of {110} matrix planes in orientation relationships with the precipitates, independently of the precipitate nature, suggests matrix restriction effects on the early stages of precipitation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Spectral induced polarization monitoring of induced calcite precipitation in subsurface sediments

Co-precipitation of contaminants within the crystalline structure of calcite is a promising natural attenuation or remedial technology being considered at contaminated sites. We explore the sensitivity of the spectral induced polarization (SIP) method to induced calcite precipitation in natural sediments as a path forward to non-invasively monitor these sites. We performed time-lapse column experiments using phased (I-IV) injections over 40 days on natural sediments from the Hanford Site (Washington State, USA). In the phased injections, abiotic calcite precipitation was induced and confirmed to have occurred. Previous work in glass beads and homogeneous sand was limited to high frequency detection of calcite, however in this work we observed the development of two polarization mechanisms, one at high frequency (>100 Hz) and one at low frequency (< 100 Hz). Based on the characteristic frequencies from the SIP high and low frequency regimes, characteristic length scales (L) were computed where the adsorption mode of Na+ versus Ca2+ was compared by using diffusion coefficients corresponding to Na+ versus an arithmetically averaged value for Na+ and Ca2+. Using the diffusion coefficient of Na+, the high frequency L was found to correlate well with the size of the calcite crystals. The low frequency L correlated well with the individual natural sediment grain sizes within the columns. During late experimental times (day 36 and 40), the characteristic low frequency in two of the experimental columns shifted to lower frequencies (<0.001 Hz) which may signify SIP sensitivity of the formed calcite with the sediment grains. In field applications, the development of a low frequency polarization length scale to monitor calcite precipitation is promising for field monitoring applications, however further laboratory work needs to be performed to examine the SIP sensitivity of calcite formation in the presence of to natural sediments

calcium carbonate, calcite, precipitation, spectra↗

Estimation of Surface Sensible Heat Flux due to Precipitation over CONUS and Its Impact on Urban Extreme Precipitation Modeling

The surface sensible heat flux induced by precipitation (Q P ) is a consequence of the temperature difference between the surface and the rain droplets. Despite its seemingly negligible nature, Q P is frequently omitted from both meteorological and climatological models. Nevertheless, it is important to acknowledge the numerous occasions in which the instantaneous values of Q P can be significant, particularly during extreme precipitation events. This study undertakes a comprehensive assessment of Q P across the contiguous United States (CONUS) utilizing high-resolution reanalysis, observational data, and numerical modeling to examine the influence of Q P on precipitation and the surface energy budget. The findings indicate that the spatial distribution of Q P climatology is analogous to that of precipitation, with magnitudes ranging from 2 to 3 W m -2 predominantly over the Midwest and Southeast regions. A seasonal analysis of QP reveals that the highest values occurring during the June–August (JJA) period, averaging 3.18 W m -2 . Peak Q P values of approximately 4 W m -2 are observed during JJA over the Great Plains region. We hypothesize that the Q P during an extreme precipitation event would be nonnegligible and have a significant impact on the local weather. To test this conjecture, we perform high-resolution simulations with and without Q P during an extreme precipitation event over the Chicago Metropolitan Area (CMA). The results show that the Q P may be a dominant factor compared to other components of surface heat flux during the zenith of precipitation hours. Also, Q P has the potential to not only diminish precipitation but also alter and reconfigure the remaining surface energy budget components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Precipitation Measurement Cold Season Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx): For Measurement Sake Let it Snow

As a component of the Earth's hydrologic cycle, and especially at higher latitudes,falling snow creates snow pack accumulation that in turn provides a large proportion of the fresh water resources required by many communities throughout the world. To assess the relationships between remotely sensed snow measurements with in situ measurements, a winter field project, termed the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Cold Season Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx), was carried out in the winter of 2011-2012 in Ontario, Canada. Its goal was to provide information on the precipitation microphysics and processes associated with cold season precipitation to support GPM snowfall retrieval algorithms that make use of a dual-frequency precipitation radar and a passive microwave imager on board the GPM core satellite,and radiometers on constellation member satellites. Multi-parameter methods are required to be able to relate changes in the microphysical character of the snow to measureable parameters from which precipitation detection and estimation can be based. The data collection strategy was coordinated, stacked, high-altitude and in-situ cloud aircraft missions with three research aircraft sampling within a broader surface network of five ground sites taking in-situ and volumetric observations. During the field campaign 25 events were identified and classified according to their varied precipitation type, synoptic context, and precipitation amount. Herein, the GCPEx fieldcampaign is described and three illustrative cases detailed.

GCPEx↗

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

MERRA↗