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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2

Machine learning in cardiovascular flows modeling: Predicting arterial blood pressure from non-invasive 4D flow MRI data using physics-informed neural networks

Advances in computational science offer a principled pipeline for predictive modeling of cardiovascular flows and aspire to provide a valuable tool for monitoring, diagnostics and surgical planning. Such models can be nowadays deployed on large patient-specific topologies of systemic arterial networks and return detailed predictions on flow patterns, wall shear stresses, and pulse wave propagation. However, their success heavily relies on tedious pre-processing and calibration procedures that typically induce a significant computational cost, thus hampering their clinical applicability. Here, we put forth a machine learning framework that enables the seamless synthesis of non-invasive in-vivo measurement techniques and computational flow dynamics models derived from first physical principles. We illustrate this new paradigm by showing how one-dimensional models of pulsatile flow can be used to constrain the output of deep neural networks such that their predictions satisfy the conservation of mass and momentum principles. Once trained on noisy and scattered clinical data of flow and wall displacement, these networks can return physically consistent predictions for velocity, pressure and wall displacement pulse wave propagation, all without the need to employ conventional simulators. A simple post-processing of these outputs can also provide a relatively cheap and effective way for estimating Windkessel model parameters that are required for the calibration of traditional computational models. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed techniques is demonstrated through a series of prototype benchmarks, as well as a realistic clinical case involving in-vivo measurements near the aorta/carotid bifurcation of a healthy human subject.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Quantifying model prediction sensitivity to model-form uncertainty

Computational and mathematical models are essential to understanding complex systems and phenomena. However, when developing such models, limited knowledge and/or resources necessitates the use of simplifying assumptions. It is therefore crucial to quantify the impact of such simplifying assumptions on the reliability and accuracy of resulting model predictions. This work develops a first-of-its-kind approach to quantify the impact of physics modeling assumptions on predictions. Here, we leverage the emerging field of model-form uncertainty (MFU) representations, which are parameterized modifications to modeling assumptions, in combination with grouped Sobol’ indices to quantitatively measure an assumption’s importance. Specifically, we compute the grouped Sobol’ index for the MFU representation’s parameters as a single importance measure of the assumption for which the MFU representation characterizes uncertainty. To ensure this approach is robust to the subjective choice of how to parameterize a MFU representation, we establish bounds for the difference between sensitivity results for two different MFU representations based on differences in model prediction statistics. The capabilities associated with this approach are demonstrated on three exemplar problems: an upscaled subsurface contaminant transport problem, ablation modeling for hypersonic flight, and nuclear waste repository modeling. We found that our grouped approach is able to assess the impact of modeling assumptions on predictions and offers computational advantages over classical Sobol’ index computation while providing more interpretable results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deploying a Model Predictive Traffic Signal Control Algorithm - A Field Deployment Experiment Case Study

This paper presents a field deployment experiment of a real-time traffic signal control algorithm. We implemented the model predictive control (MPC) algorithm based on the virtual phase-link (VPL) model. We selected the deployment locations and times based on an energy saving potential concept. We developed a set of experiment systems, which included sensing, processing, and actuating components, to enable field deployment. We tested the systems rigorously before the experiment days. We reported the key procedures on the experiment days, including the steps taken, the real-time control procedure, and the monitoring of the experiment. We evaluated the impact of the deployment by looking at the changes in delay and energy consumption.

deployment↗

Putting AlphaFold models to work with phenix.process_predicted_model and ISOLDE

AlphaFold has recently become an important tool in providing models for experimental structure determination by X-ray crystallography and cryo-EM. Large parts of the predicted models typically approach the accuracy of experimentally determined structures, although there are frequently local errors and errors in the relative orientations of domains. Importantly, residues in the model of a protein predicted by AlphaFold are tagged with a predicted local distance difference test score, informing users about which regions of the structure are predicted with less confidence. AlphaFold also produces a predicted aligned error matrix indicating its confidence in the relative positions of each pair of residues in the predicted model. The phenix.process_predicted_model tool downweights or removes low-confidence residues and can break a model into confidently predicted domains in preparation for molecular replacement or cryo-EM docking. These confidence metrics are further used in ISOLDE to weight torsion and atom–atom distance restraints, allowing the complete AlphaFold model to be interactively rearranged to match the docked fragments and reducing the need for the rebuilding of connecting regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Patterns, drivers, and a predictive model of dam removal cost in the United States

Given the burgeoning dam removal movement and the large number of dams approaching obsolescence in the United States, cost estimating data and tools are needed for dam removal prioritization, planning, and execution. We used the list of removed dams compiled by American Rivers to search for publicly available reported costs for dam removal projects. Total cost information could include component costs related to project planning, dam deconstruction, monitoring, and several categories of mitigation activities. We compiled reported costs from 455 unique sources for 668 dams removed in the United States from 1965 to 2020. The dam removals occurred within 571 unique projects involving 1–18 dams. When adjusted for inflation into 2020 USD, cost of these projects totaled $\$1.522$ billion, with per-dam costs ranging from $\$1$ thousand (k) to $\$268.8$ million (M). The median cost for dam removals was $\$157$k, $\$823$k, and $\$6.2$M for dams that were< 5 m, between 5–10 m, and > 10 m in height, respectively. Geographic differences in total costs showed that northern states in general, and the Pacific Northwest in particular, spent the most on dam removal. The Midwest and the Northeast spent proportionally more on removal of dams less than 5 m in height, whereas the Northwest and Southwest spent the most on larger dam removals > 10 m tall. We used stochastic gradient boosting with quantile regression to model dam removal cost against potential predictor variables including dam characteristics (dam height and material), hydrography (average annual discharge and drainage area), project complexity (inferred from construction and sediment management, mitigation, and post-removal cost drivers), and geographic region. Dam height, annual average discharge at the dam site, and project complexity were the predominant drivers of removal cost. The final model had an R 2 of 57% and when applied to a test dataset model predictions had a root mean squared error of $\$5.09$M and a mean absolute error of $\$1.45$M, indicating its potential utility to predict estimated costs of dam removal. We developed a R shiny application for estimating dam removal costs using customized model inputs for exploratory analyses and potential dam removal planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Predictive Modeling of Electrodeposition in a Single Pore Flow-Through Electrode: From Electronucleation to Coating Thickness Uniformity

The emergence of advanced manufacturing methods capable of producing porous three-dimensional structures has expanded the design space for next-generation functional components. The ability to fabricate ordered 3D foams for use in electrocatalysis reactors has increased the need for controlled deposition of catalytic metals onto porous support materials, such as carbon. However, there is a lack of clear design guidelines for electrodeposition onto 3D substrates, due to the geometric complexity and multi-scale nature of the problem. Furthermore, electro-nucleation phenomena are often overlooked in macro-scale models of current distribution during deposition. Here, a graphite flow-through electrode (FTE) is used as a model system for copper deposition within a single pore. Potential distributions and electro-nucleation phenomena are coupled in a continuum level model by incorporating nucleation size and density as a function of overpotential, determined experimentally using in situ atomic force microscopy (AFM). The model predictions are validated by measuring the coating uniformity in the pore using micro-computed X-ray tomography (μCT). A scaling analysis comprising dimensionless parameters such as the Wagner number is presented. The simplified scaling relationship framework can guide the electrodeposition process and electrode design to optimize plating of porous substrates under fluid flow conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

SEMI-ACTIVE CONTROL FOR TWO-BODY OCEAN WAVE ENERGY CONVERTER BY USING HYBRID MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL

Model predictive control (MPC) has been considered as one important feed-forward optimal control strategy for ocean wave energy converter (WEC) targeted on power maximization. The capability of MPC to handle system constraints (ex. stroke, velocity, actuator limitations), and the availability to provide optimal solution for linear system provide potential for the implementation of such algorithm in the WEC control. However, currently, only active MPC control has been introduced for single and two-body WECs. Such control strategy may introduce negative power during the optimization process, since the power take-off (PTO) damping has no constraint. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid MPC strategy in limiting both the PTO damping force and PTO damping to avoid negative power generation during cost function minimization (negative power minimization) for the two-body WEC. The problem is formulated into a quadratic programming (QP) problem targeted at power maximization. However, the standard QP problem formulation cannot be directly applied to the semi-active control problem due to the PTO damping constraints. Therefore, the problem is reformulated as a Mixed-integer Quadratic Programming (MIQP) problem, which contains logical switch to select constraint matrices based on the sign of the relative velocity between the buoy and submerged body. The optimal solution is compared with those of the active MPC control strategy and the passive model with the same irregular wave input.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Field Performance of Commercial Building Load Flexibility Using Model Predictive Control

Model Predictive Control (MPC) applied to buildings is starting to see some commercial adoption by companies. However, it is hard to estimate if relative energy cost savings are enough to justify the cost of MPC implementation with few reported demonstrations. In small commercial and residential buildings, a one size-fits-all solution can help reduce implementation costs, while in very large buildings or districts the potential energy cost savings magnitude can cover more tailored solutions. This estimation becomes harder for medium to large commercial buildings, where a one-size-fits-all solution cannot be adopted and potential energy cost savings might not be sufficient to cover a tailored solution. Therefore, value propositions in addition to energy efficiency alone can make MPC technology more attractive through additional energy cost savings. One such value proposition is load shifting in response to dynamic electricity prices. On this aspect, MPC is a key technology to unlock building thermal mass for energy flexibility in response to electric grid conditions. This study shows the experimental results of MPC control of an office building in Berkeley, where different dynamic electricity price profiles were used in the MPC objective function to shift the building load and to calculate hypothetical electricity costs. Results show potential 50% cost savings with respect to the existing controller with the dynamic price scenario.

Zanetti, Ettore↗

User-Preference-Driven Model Predictive Control of Residential Building Loads and Battery Storage for Demand Response: Preprint

This paper presents a user-preference-driven home energy management system (HEMS) for demand response (DR) with residential building loads and battery storage. The HEMS is based on a multi-objective model predictive control algorithm, where the objectives include energy cost, thermal comfort, and carbon emission. A multi-criterion decision making method originating from social science is used to quickly determine user preferences based on a brief survey and derive the weights of different objectives used in the optimization process. Besides the residential appliances used in the traditional DR programs, a home battery system is integrated into the HEMS to improve the flexibility and reliability of the DR resources. Simulation studies have been performed on field data from a residential building stock data set. Appliance models and usage patterns were learned from the data to predict the DR resource availability. Results indicate the HEMS was able to provide a significant amount of load reduction with less than 20% prediction error in both heating and cooling cases.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Special Issue: Microbial Community Modeling: Prediction of Microbial Interactions and Community Dynamics

Microbial communities are networks of species, the interaction structure of which dynamically reorganizes in a varying environment. Even in a static condition, community dynamics are often difficult to predict due to highly nonlinear interspecies interactions. Understanding fundamental principles of microbial interactions is therefore key for predicting and harnessing community function and properties. As extensively reviewed previously, mathematical models and computational methods that can predictively link interactions to community behaviors are indispensable tools for achieving this goal. This Special Issue of Processes collects eleven papers from lead scientists and researchers active in the area under the topic of “Microbial Community Modeling: Prediction of Microbial Interactions and Community Dynamics.” The collected papers cover various topics of interest: 1) two review/opinion papers discussing recent advances in biofilm modeling and specific issues for successful collaboration between experimentalists and theorists, 2) one paper on the dynamics of complex environmental communities, 3) six papers dealing with fundamental aspects of microbial interactions and stability in model communities, and 4) two papers on the development and utilization of microbial consortia for biotechnology applications.

Song, Hyun-Seob (ORCID:0000000221546358)↗

Ecosystem Controls on Methylmercury Production by Periphyton Biofilms in a Contaminated Stream: Implications for Predictive Modeling

Periphyton biofilms produce a substantial fraction of the overall monomethylmercury (MMHg) flux in East Fork Poplar Creek, an industrially contaminated, freshwater creek in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. We examined periphyton MMHg production across seasons, locations, and light conditions using mercury stable isotopes. Methylation and demethylation rate potentials (km, trans av and kd, trans av, respectively) were calculated using a transient availability kinetic model. Light exposure and season were significant predictors of km, trans av, with greater values in full light exposure and in the summer. Season, light exposure, and location were significant predictors of kd, trans av, which was highest in dark conditions, in the spring, and at the upstream location. Light exposure was the controlling factor for net MMHg production, with positive production for periphyton grown under full light exposure and net demethylation for periphyton grown in the dark. Ambient MMHg and km, trans av were significantly correlated. Transient availability rate potentials were 15 times higher for km and 9 times higher for kd compared to full availability rate potentials (km, full av and kd, full av) calculated at 1 d. No significant model for the prediction of km, full av or kd, full av could be constructed using light, season, and location. In addition, there were no significant differences among treatments for the full availability km, full av, kd, full av, or net MMHg calculated using the full availability rate potentials. km, full av was not correlated with ambient MMHg concentrations. The present results underscore the importance of applying transient availability kinetics to MMHg production data when estimating MMHg production potential and flux.

Schwartz, Grace E.↗

Predictive modeling to de-risk bio-based manufacturing by adapting to variability in lignocellulosic biomass supply

Commercial-scale bio-refineries are designed to process 2000 tons/day of single lignocellulosic biomass. Several geographical areas in the United States generate diverse feedstocks that, when combined, can be substantial for bio-based manufacturing. Blending multiple feedstocks is a strategy being investigated to expand bio-based manufacturing outside Corn Belt. Here in this study, we developed a model to predict continuous envelopes of biomass blends that are optimal for a given pretreatment condition to achieve a predetermined sugar yield or vice versa. For example, our model predicted more than 60% glucose yield can be achieved by treating an equal part blend of energy cane, corn stover, and switchgrass with alkali pretreatment at 120 °C for 14.8 h. Finally, by using ionic liquid to pretreat an equal part blend of the biomass feedstocks at 160 °C for 2.2 h, we achieved 87.6% glucose yield. Such a predictive model can potentially overcome dependence on a single feedstock.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Milestone 1.2.13: Preliminary Measurements of Radiolytic Nitric Acid Formation to Support Predictive Model Validation

Predictive computational models have been developed to support the technical basis for extended dry storage of aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) in helium-backfilled cannisters. To date, these models have been optimized on a variety of irradiation experiments designed to elucidate the radiation-induced formation of molecular hydrogen gas, a radiolysis product that is potentially problematic for the safe storage of ASNF. However, the yield of nitric acid (HNO3) has not been determined, despite conservative predictions of its formation (300–4000 ppm) in 1% residual air environments irradiated in contact with ASNF. HNO3, another problematic radiolysis product, can lead to enhanced corrosion and potentially compromise storage canister integrity. Thus, to support the validation of predictive computer models, we report the measurement and quantification of HNO3 from the gamma irradiation of aluminum alloy coupons in humid air.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Can reanalysis products outperform mesoscale numerical weather prediction models in modeling the wind resource in simple terrain?

Mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are generally considered more accurate than reanalysis products in characterizing the wind resource at heights of interest for wind energy, given their finer spatial resolution and more comprehensive physics. However, advancements in the latest ERA-5 reanalysis product motivate an assessment on whether ERA-5 can model wind speeds as well as a state-of-the-art NWP model – the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. We consider this research question for both simple terrain and offshore applications. Specifically, we compare wind profiles from ERA-5 and the preliminary WRF runs of the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED) to those observed by lidars at a site in Oklahoma, United States, and in a United States Atlantic offshore wind energy area. We find that ERA-5 shows a significant negative bias (~-1ms-1) at both locations, with a larger bias at the land-based site. WTK-LED-predicted wind speed profiles show a limited negative bias (~-0.5ms-1) offshore and a slight positive bias (~+0.5ms-1) at the land-based site. On the other hand, we find that ERA-5 outperforms WTK-LED in terms of the centered root-mean-square error (cRMSE) and correlation coefficient, for both the land-based and offshore cases, in all atmospheric stability conditions. We find that WTK-LED's higher cRMSE is caused by its tendency to overpredict the amplitude of the wind speed diurnal cycle. At the land-based site, this is partially caused by wind plant wake effects not being accurately captured by WTK-LED.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Multirange Vehicle Speed Prediction With Application to Model Predictive Control-Based Integrated Power and Thermal Management of Connected Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Abstract Connectivity and automated driving technologies have opened up new research directions in the energy management of vehicles which exploit look-ahead preview and enhance the situational awareness. Despite this advancement, the vehicle speed preview that can be obtained from vehicle-to-vehicle/infrastructure (V2V/I) communications is often limited to a relatively short time-horizon. The vehicular energy systems, specifically those of the electrified vehicles, consist of multiple interacting power and thermal subsystems that respond over different time-scales. Consequently, their optimal energy management can greatly benefit from long-term speed prediction beyond that available through V2V/I communications. Accurately extending the look-ahead preview, on the other hand, is fundamentally challenging due to the dynamic nature of the traffic environment. To address this challenge, we propose a data-driven multirange vehicle speed prediction strategy for arterial corridors with signalized intersections, providing the vehicle speed preview for three different ranges, i.e., short-, medium-, and long-range. The short-range preview is obtained by V2V/I communications. The medium-range preview is realized using a neural network (NN), while the long-range preview is predicted based on a Bayesian network (BN). The predictions are updated in real-time based on the current state of traffic and incorporated into a multihorizon model predictive control (MH-MPC) for integrated power and thermal management (iPTM) of connected vehicles. The results of design and evaluation of the performance of the proposed data-informed MH-MPC for iPTM of connected hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) using traffic data for real-world city driving are reported.

Automation & Control Systems↗

Characterization of Precipitation-Strengthening Heat-Resistant Austenitic Stainless Steels for Life-Prediction Modeling

In this study, the role of minor alloying additions in 347H stainless steels (UNS34709, ASTM A240/240M) on creep-rupture properties at 650-750°C and microstructure evolution during isothermal exposure at 750°C has been investigated, aiming to provide the experimental dataset as boundary conditions of physics-based modeling for material/component life prediction. Four different 347H heats containing various amounts of boron and nitrogen additions were prepared and evaluated. The combined additions of B and N are found to stabilize the strengthening secondary M23C6 carbides and retarding the transition from M23C6 to sigma phase precipitates during thermal exposure. The observed kinetics of microstructure evolution reasonably explains the improvement of creep-rupture properties of 347H stainless steels with the B and N additions.

Yamamoto, Yukinori↗