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Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (PVRW) 2025 Proceedings: Presentations

NREL hosts this annual workshop so that solar technology experts can discuss current and future issues in PV reliability. Longer-lasting PV systems make lower-cost solar electricity and have less impact on the environment, human health, and natural resources. PVRW offers a combination of oral presentations, panel discussions with vigorous audience participation, and poster presentations. At our workshop, every attendee is a presenter or the sole guest of a presenter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Utah FORGE 3-2535: Joint Imaging of Fracture Growth and Estimation of Fracture Properties During EGS Development - 2024 Annual Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Joint Electromagnetic/Seismic/InSAR Imaging of Spatial-Temporal Fracture Growth and Estimation of Physical Fracture Properties During EGS Resource Development by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, presented by David Alumbaugh. This is a video presentation on developing a set of technologies and workflow to image induced fracture generation and growth for an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS). Using a combination of passive seismic and active source borehole EM and InSAR technology it is anticipated imaging and fracture generation and growth monitoring will be actualized. The workflow will provide a template for imaging induced fracture systems for future EGS systems. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on August 13, 2024.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Utah FORGE 5-2565: Evolution of Permeability and Strength Recovery of Shear Fractures Under Hydrothermal Conditions - 2024 Annual Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Evolution of Permeability and Strength Recovery of Shear Fractures Under Hydrothermal Conditions by United States Geological Survey, presented by Tamara Jeppson. This video slide presentation, by the USGS, discusses the determination of how thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) processes affect the sustainability of fracture networks in geothermal reservoirs. This includes (1) the qualification of rates of change of fracture properties, (2) the parameterization of modes of reaction, (3) the development of micromechanical and empirical fracture models, and (4) extended THMC models for laboratory- and reservoir-scale models. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on August 15, 2024.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Present-day correlations are insufficient to predict cloud albedo change by anthropogenic aerosols in E3SM v2

Cloud albedo susceptibility to droplet number perturbation remains a source of uncertainty in understanding aerosol–cloud interactions and thus both past and present climate states. Through the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v2 experiments, we probe the effects of competing processes on cloud albedo susceptibility of low-lying marine stratocumulus in the northeast Pacific. In present-day conditions, we find that increasing precipitation suppression by aerosols increases cloud albedo susceptibility, whereas increasing cloud sedimentation decreases it. By constructing a hypothetical model configuration exhibiting negative susceptibility under all conditions, we conclude that cloud albedo change due to aerosol perturbation cannot be predicted by present-day co-variabilities in E3SM v2. As such, our null result herein challenges the assumption that present-day climate observations are sufficient to constrain past states, at least in the context of cloud albedo changes to aerosol perturbation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (PVRW) 2024 Proceedings: Presentations

NREL hosts an annual Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (PVRW) so that solar technology experts can discuss current and future issues in PV reliability. Longer-lasting PV systems make lower-cost solar electricity and have less impact on the environment, human health, and natural resources. PVRW offers a combination of oral presentations, panel discussions with vigorous audience participation, and poster presentations. This document collects oral presentations that were presented at PVRW 2024.

degradation

Utah FORGE 3-2514: Strain Sensing Array for Deformation Characterization - 2024 Annual Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Strain Sensing Array to characterize deformation at the FORGE site project by Clemson University, presented by Lawrence Murdoch. The project's objective was to evaluate the feasibility of measuring and interpreting tensor strain data to improve the performance of EGS. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on August 23, 2024.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Utah FORGE 2-2404: Application of Advanced Techniques for Determination of Reservoir-Scale Stress State - 2024 Annual Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Application of Advanced Techniques for Determination of Reservoir-Scale Stress State at FORGE by the University of Oklahoma, presented by Ahmad Ghassemi. This video discusses how magnitude and orientation of natural in-situ principal stresses at depth is necessary for effective and economical geothermal reservoir development including drilling, stimulation, and reservoir management. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on August 13, 2024.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Utah FORGE 2-2439v2: Characterizing In-Situ Stress with Laboratory Modelling and Field Measurements - 2024 Annual Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on A Multi-Component Approach to Characterizing In-Situ Stress at the Utah FORGE Site: Laboratory Modelling and Field Measurements project by The University of Pittsburgh, presented by Andrew Bunger. The project characterizes the stress in the Utah FORGE EGS reservoir using three methods: Method 1: Demonstrate complimentary laboratory rock-core stress estimation combined with Machine Learning approach for measuring in-situ stress from field sonic log data; Method 2: Complete field based in-situ measurement (mini-frac); and Method 3: Develop a mechanics-based method for connection near wellbore stress measurements to stresses away from the well-bore. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on August 14, 2024.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (PVRW) 2026 Oral Presentation Proceedings

Each year, the Photovoltaics Reliability Workshop (PVRW) brings together solar technology experts to discuss current and future issues in PV reliability. This document collects oral presentations that were part of PVRW 2026. Click the presentation titles in the following agenda to jump to each file. Not all talks listed in the agenda can be found in this document, as not all presentation files were provided to PVRW for inclusion in these proceedings.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Utah FORGE 2-2446: Closing the Loop Between In-Situ Stress Complexity and EGS Fracture Complexity - 2024 Annual Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on Closing the Loop Between In-Situ Stress Complexity and EGS Fracture Complexity by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, presented by Matteo Cusini. The video discusses the combination of high-fidelity simulations and true-triaxial block fracturing tests to explore the intricate relationship between in-situ stress and hydraulic fracture patterns. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on August 14, 2024.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Utah FORGE: Well 16A(78)-32 Hydraulic Fracturing Stage 8 Crosswell Strain FDI and Microseismic Presentations - April 2024

This is a pair of PowerPoint presentations from Neubrex Energy Services (US), LLC. The presentations review work done in April 2024 on crosswell strain fracture driven interactions (FDI) and microseismic event monitoring during hydraulic fracturing in stage 8 of Utah FORGE well 16A(78)-32. Well 16B(78)-32 was the monitoring well and was where the data for these presentations were collected.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

High-Fidelity Modeling of a Type-5 Wind Turbine Gearbox (Intern Technical Presentation) (Poster)

Type-5 wind turbines are unique in their use of a permanent magnet synchronous generator, as well as their use of a hydraulic torque converter. This architecture presents an opportunity to provide steady and grid-ready energy without the need for a power converter. With infrastructure continuity and reliability being an important topic amongst renewable energies, researchers have been prompted to further investigate the benefits of type-5 turbines’ unique electromechanical configuration on stable electricity generation. Researchers involved in the WindSG project, SG standing for synchronous generator, are aiming to model a type-5 turbine using Real Time Digital Simulation (RTDS) to evaluate its efficacy in the grid. RSCAD, the software run on the RTDS, comes pre-loaded with electrical and electromechanical components to help simulate electrical generation and grid conditions. However, within this repertoire there is a lack of a component to represent a gearbox with high-fidelity. Within RSCAD’s case studies, the gearbox is often represented simply by a gear ratio value. This presented the task of developing a high-fidelity gearbox model in RSCAD for use in the larger RTDS type-5 wind turbine model. This presentation describes a method of developing a lumped parameter mathematical model to represent a planetary-parallel-parallel gearbox in RSCAD for use in RTDS.

17 WIND ENERGY

Presenting a Model to Predict Changing Snow Albedo for Improving Photovoltaic Performance Simulation

As photovoltaic (PV) deployment increases worldwide, PV systems are being installed more frequently in locations that experience snow cover. The higher albedo of snow, relative to the ground, increases the performance of PV systems in northern and high-altitude locations by reflecting more light onto the PV modules. Accurate modeling of the snow’s albedo can improve estimates of PV system production. Typical modeling of snow albedo uses a simple two-value model that sets the albedo high when snow is present, and low when snow is not present. However, snow albedo changes over time as snow settles and melts and a binary model does not account for transitional changes, which can be significant. Here, we present and validate a model for estimating snow albedo as it changes over time. The model is simple enough to only require daily snow depth and hourly average temperature data, but can be improved through the addition of site-specific factors, when available. We validate this model to quantify its ability to more accurately predict snow albedo and compare the model’s performance against satellite imagery-based methods for obtaining historical albedo data. In addition, we perform modeling using the System Advisor Model (SAM) to show the impact of changes in albedo on energy modeling for PV systems. Overall, our albedo model has a significantly improved ability to predict the solar insolation on PV modules in real time, especially on bifacial PV modules where reflected irradiance plays a larger role in energy production.

Pike, Christopher (ORCID:0000000155888033)

Presentation: Reactor Containment Passive Safety Analysis: Steam Condensation in Presence of Non-condensable Gas Scaled Experiment and Modeling

This study presents steam condensation scaled experiments and semi-empirical models in presence of nitrogen--a noncondensable gas (NCG), simulating air in the reactor containment--to support water-cooled small modular reactors (SMRs) passive containment cooling system (PCCS) design and analysis. Previous experimental studies on PCCS are focused on fixed and smaller tube (mostly 2-in.) geometries and specific test condition variations, bringing challenges with geometric scaling and mismatching with SMR prototypic design. To address these challenges, this study presents steam condensation test dataset obtained from three scaled test sections of 1-, 2-, and 4-in.-diameter steam condensers with an annular/jacket cooling of 2-, 3-, and 6 in.-diameter tubes, respectively. Test data were collected for steam ranges from 58 to 63 kg/hr., and NCG flow of 4.4 to 13.3 kg/hr. Annular cooling water flow was varied to obtain required testing conditions of saturated steam inlet and fully condensed outlet. Axial temperature test data of bulk cooling water, steam and condensate were collected by thermocouples for three test sections and various steam-NCG mixing/testing conditions. A standard data reduction method was adopted--utilizing iterative and nodalized mass and heat transfer calculation to estimate axial local heat fluxes, heat transfer coefficients (HTCs), condensation rates, film thickness, and Nusselt number. Based on the obtained dataset semi-empirical model results--a ratio of experimental and Nusselt's theoretical HTC are presented. Such results and findings are supportive of developing scaled-up testing facility, to enable model validations and accelerate next generation of reactors development and deployment.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant (Presentation)

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies the risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of value at risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. This paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verifying the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. This paper’s results present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

SULI End of Summer Presentation

This presentation made on Power Point is a brief summary of my work enhancing the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) architecture for Idaho National Lab’s Critical Infrastructure Test Range Complex (CITRC). This work was part of an on-going project to create a digital twin of CITRC that will be implemented for resiliency research. Resiliency is growing more important as extreme weather, aging infrastructure, and increasing load all exert stress on the United States power grid. This presentation highlights how I documented the existing devices and data flow on site and then updated specific device settings to better support the needs of the project. It also examines future use of this data in the digital twin data warehouse (DeepLynx), and future Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Distribution Management System applications. It will be presented to the B751 Water and Energy Systems Analysis group at INL during my last week.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Measurement of low energy characteristic X-rays emitted present in U-10Mo HALEU alloy fuel

Advance high density monolithic alloy HALEU fuels have been scanned with a silicon drift detector scanning system to measure low-energy characteristic X-rays emitted by uranium daughters, as well as zirconium present as a foil diffusion barrier. Four peaks were measured across the surfaces of three plates, and are consistent with other thorium and protactinium peaks present in depleted uranium samples that are induced by the decay of 235 U and 238 U. Of the four peaks detected, three are dominated by the decay of 235 U, and one peak at 15.70 keV covers two characteristic X-rays from the zirconium diffusion barrier (Kα 1 ) and from a 231 Th 15.62 keV X-ray induced by 235 U α-decay. The low energies of these lines suggest that they are mostly emitted from the fuel meat surface, and the poor counting statistics caused by strong self-attenuation make these data a poor candidate for 235 U/ 238 U ratio analysis. We suggest, then, that these X-rays could be used for passive measurement of variations in the cladding thickness of these fuels to complement manual thickness measurement methods.

HALEU

Exploring Afro-Asian water fluxes in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models: Present-day evaluation and future projections

Accurate representation and projection of water fluxes are vital, particularly in monsoon regions where seasonal variability and changes significantly impact water resources, agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, and the economy. This study uses both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models to investigate the present-day representation of key water flux components (including precipitation, evaporation, water vapor, and moisture advection) over the Afro-Asian region during the summer monsoon (JJAS). We also examine future changes under two emission scenarios and assess the underlying physical mechanisms driving these changes while identifying sources of projection uncertainty. Our results show that both models reasonably capture the present-day characteristics of water flux components, although with noticeable biases. Across most regions, we find that CMIP6 models demonstrate slight improvements over CMIP5 in the representation of these components. In a warmer future, a robust intensification of JJAS precipitation (exceeding 0.25 mm/day) is projected across the Afro-Asian region. This increase is largely driven by the vertical thermodynamic term associated with increasing temperature. We find that model uncertainty is the primary source of uncertainty in water flux projections, accounting for over 50 % of the total variance.

Climate change