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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Consequences of Asteroid Characterization on the State of Knowledge about Inferred Physical Properties and Impact Risk

Physical characteristics of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are essential inputs to planetary defense assessments. The size, density, and strength of an NEO are critical inputs to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry as well as assessing the risk of impact. Similarly, knowledge of the physical characteristics of an object are necessary to evaluate the probable result of a mitigation mission. Usually, these attributes cannot be directly measured, but increasingly sophisticated methods have been developed to infer physical properties from related measurements of asteroids, meteors, and/or meteorites. Fortuitously, some of these measurements have been obtained for enough NEOs to elucidate the distribution of values across the sampled population. However, the situation becomes more challenging when considering a specific asteroid, since it is unlikely that all the relevant measurements have been made for any given object. We have developed a Bayesian network that can combine available information about a particular NEO with knowledge of the larger population to infer probabilistic values and uncertainties for physical characteristics of interest. Distributions of asteroid population albedos, taxonomic classes, and macroporosities, along with meteorite density distributions and associations between taxonomic classes and meteorite classes, provide the default distributions for the network’s parameter nodes. The inference network links parameters for each virtual asteroid either deterministically or probabilistically as appropriate, and eliminates any unphysical combinations of parameters. Within the context of planetary defense, our Bayesian network can be used to constrain the ranges of likely impactor properties, which can subsequently reduce the uncertainty in modelling of atmospheric entry, mitigation efficacy, and impact risk assessment. When additional measurements become available for a specific object, the network incorporates those measurements to generate virtual asteroids with property distributions that are consistent with the measurements. We will use the 2023 PDC scenario to demonstrate how the inference network can be combined with plausible characterization measurements to refine the state of knowledge about likely combinations of physical parameters and the resulting impact risk.

risk assessment↗
DOE OSTI2019

Constraints on Dark Matter Microphysics from the Milky Way Satellite Population

Alternatives to the cold, collisionless dark matter (DM) paradigm in which DM behaves as a collisional fluid generically suppress small-scale structure. Herein we use the observed population of Milky Way (MW) satellite galaxies to constrain the collisional nature of DM, focusing on DM–baryon scattering. We first derive conservative analytic upper limits on the velocity-independent DM–baryon scattering cross section by translating the upper bound on the lowest mass of halos inferred to host satellites into a characteristic cutoff scale in the linear matter power spectrum. We then confirm and improve these results through a detailed probabilistic inference of the MW satellite population that marginalizes over relevant astrophysical uncertainties. This yields 95% confidence upper limits on the DM–baryon scattering cross section of 6 × 10 –30 cm 2 (10 –27 cm 2 ) for DM particle masses m χ of 10 keV (10 GeV); these limits scale as m χ 1/4 for m χ << 1 GeV and m χ for m χ >> 1 GeV. This analysis improves upon cosmological bounds derived from cosmic-microwave-background anisotropy measurements by more than three orders of magnitude over a wide range of DM masses, excluding regions of parameter space previously unexplored by other methods, including direct-detection experiments. Lastly, our work reveals a mapping between DM–baryon scattering and other alternative DM models, and we discuss the implications of our results for warm and fuzzy DM scenarios.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

On the Probabilistic Analysis of Neural Networks

Neural networks are powerful tools for automated decision-making,seeing increased application in safety-critical domains, such as autonomous driving. Due to their black-box nature and large scale,reasoning about their behavior is challenging. Statistical analysis is often used to infer probabilistic properties of a network, such as its robustness to noise and inaccurate inputs. While scalable, statistical methods can only provide probabilistic guarantees on the quality of their results and may underestimate the impact of low probability inputs leading to undesired behavior of the network.We investigate here the use of symbolic analysis and constraint solution space quantification to precisely quantify probabilistic properties in neural networks. We demonstrate the potential of the proposed technique in a case study involving the analysis of ACAS-Xu, a collision avoidance system for unmanned aircraft control.

neural nets↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inferring colloidal interaction from scattering by machine learning

A machine learning solution for the potential inversion problem in elastic scattering is outlined. The inversion scheme consists of two major components, a generative network featuring a variational autoencoder which extracts the targeted static two-point correlation functions from experimentally measured scattering cross sections, and a Gaussian process framework which probabilistically infers the relevant structural parameters from the inverted correlation functions. Via a case study of charged colloidal suspensions, the feasibility of this approach for quantitative study of molecular interaction is critically benchmarked and its merit over existing deterministic approaches, in terms of numerical accuracy and computationally efficiency, is demonstrated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Mixture Model-Based Spectral Unmixing

Spectral unmixing attempts to decompose a spectral ensemble into the constituent pure spectral signatures (called endmembers) along with the proportion of each endmember. This is essential for techniques like hyperspectral imaging (HSI) used in environment monitoring, geological exploration, etc. Several spectral unmixing approaches have been proposed, many of which are connected to hyperspectral imaging. However, most extant approaches assume highly diverse collections of mixtures and extremely low-loss spectroscopic measurements. Additionally, current non-Bayesian frameworks do not incorporate the uncertainty inherent in unmixing. We propose a probabilistic inference algorithm that explicitly incorporates noise and uncertainty, enabling us to unmix endmembers in collections of mixtures with limited diversity. We use a Bayesian mixture model to jointly extract endmember spectra and mixing parameters while explicitly modeling observation noise and the resulting inference uncertainties. We obtain approximate distributions over endmember coordinates for each set of observed spectra while remaining robust to inference biases from the lack of pure observations and the presence of non-isotropic Gaussian noise. As a direct impact of our methodology, access to reliable uncertainties on the unmixing solutions would enable robust solutions to noise, as well as informed decision-making for HSI applications and other unmixing problems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2015

Bayesian network ensemble as a multivariate strategy to predict radiation pneumonitis risk

Purpose: Prediction of radiation pneumonitis (RP) has been shown to be challenging due to the involvement of a variety of factors including dose–volume metrics and radiosensitivity biomarkers. Some of these factors are highly correlated and might affect prediction results when combined. Bayesian network (BN) provides a probabilistic framework to represent variable dependencies in a directed acyclic graph. The aim of this study is to integrate the BN framework and a systems’ biology approach to detect possible interactions among RP risk factors and exploit these relationships to enhance both the understanding and prediction of RP. Methods: The authors studied 54 nonsmall-cell lung cancer patients who received curative 3D-conformal radiotherapy. Nineteen RP events were observed (common toxicity criteria for adverse events grade 2 or higher). Serum concentration of the following four candidate biomarkers were measured at baseline and midtreatment: alpha-2-macroglobulin, angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE), transforming growth factor, interleukin-6. Dose-volumetric and clinical parameters were also included as covariates. Feature selection was performed using a Markov blanket approach based on the Koller–Sahami filter. The Markov chain Monte Carlo technique estimated the posterior distribution of BN graphs built from the observed data of the selected variables and causality constraints. RP probability was estimated using a limited number of high posterior graphs (ensemble) and was averaged for the final RP estimate using Bayes’ rule. A resampling method based on bootstrapping was applied to model training and validation in order to control under- and overfit pitfalls. Results: RP prediction power of the BN ensemble approach reached its optimum at a size of 200. The optimized performance of the BN model recorded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83, which was significantly higher than multivariate logistic regression (0.77), mean heart dose (0.69), and a pre-to-midtreatment change in ACE (0.66). When RP prediction was made only with pretreatment information, the AUC ranged from 0.76 to 0.81 depending on the ensemble size. Bootstrap validation of graph features in the ensemble quantified confidence of association between variables in the graphs where ten interactions were statistically significant. Conclusions: The presented BN methodology provides the flexibility to model hierarchical interactions between RP covariates, which is applied to probabilistic inference on RP. The authors’ preliminary results demonstrate that such framework combined with an ensemble method can possibly improve prediction of RP under real-life clinical circumstances such as missing data or treatment plan adaptation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Variational Bayesian strategies for high-dimensional, stochastic design problems

This paper is concerned with a lesser-studied problem in the context of model-based, uncertainty quantification (UQ), that of optimization/design/control under uncertainty. The solution of such problems is hindered not only by the usual difficulties encountered in UQ tasks (e.g. the high computational cost of each forward simulation, the large number of random variables) but also by the need to solve a nonlinear optimization problem involving large numbers of design variables and potentially constraints. We propose a framework that is suitable for a class of such problems and is based on the idea of recasting them as probabilistic inference tasks. To that end, we propose a Variational Bayesian (VB) formulation and an iterative VB–Expectation-Maximization scheme that is capable of identifying a local maximum as well as a low-dimensional set of directions in the design space, along which, the objective exhibits the largest sensitivity. We demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach in the context of two numerical examples involving thousands of random and design variables. In all cases considered the cost of the computations in terms of calls to the forward model was of the order of 100 or less. The accuracy of the approximations provided is assessed by information-theoretic metrics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Constraining the Galactic bar using the M92 stellar stream

Stellar streams are excellent probes of the gravitational potential in which they evolve. In the Milky Way (MW), globular cluster (GC) streams are routinely used to infer properties about time-dependent perturbations of the underlying potential. This implies that streams with Galactocentric radii small enough to be perturbed by the MW bar should offer constraints on it, such as its pattern speed, which currently has a wide range of values reported in the literature and is important when studying stellar kinematics. The GC M92 has a small pericentre and should be affected by the bar. It has a diffuse stellar stream, but confirming stream members has previously been hindered by a lack of spectroscopic data. In this paper, we use Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) observations together with photometric and astrometric data to obtain spectroscopic members of the M92 stream for the first time. We identify a clear spatial distribution and gradients in distance moduli, proper motions, and radial velocities that confirm the stream's existence. We compare the observed stream to mock streams generated in different barred potentials and estimate the MW bar's pattern speed $Ω= 29.1^{+0.7}_{-0.4}$ km s$^{-1}$ kpc$^{-1}$ and $\dot Ω= 0.7^{+3.5}_{-2.3}$ km s$^{-1}$ kpc$^{-1}$ Gyr$^{-1}$. This is the first time a stellar stream is used to probabilistically infer these bar properties, and it opens up an exciting realm of inner Galactic potential characterisation using stellar streams.

Byström, Amanda [Edinburgh U., Inst. Astron.] (ORC↗
DOE OSTI2020

UQpy: A general purpose Python package and development environment for uncertainty quantification

In this paper, we present the UQpy software toolbox, an open-source Python package for general uncertainty quantification (UQ) in mathematical and physical systems. The software serves as both a user-ready toolbox that includes many of the latest methods for UQ in computational modeling and a convenient development environment for Python programmers advancing the field of UQ. The paper presents an introduction to the software's architecture and existing capabilities, divided in the code in a set of modules centered around different UQ tasks such as sampling methods, generation of random processes and random fields, probabilistic inverse modeling, reliability analysis, surrogate modeling, and active learning. The paper also highlights the importance of the RunModel module, which is used to drive simulations in the uncertainty analyses performed in UQpy. This module conveniently allows the user to define computational models directly in Python, or to run simulations from a third-party software in serial or in parallel. To illustrate the various capabilities, two examples are tracked throughout the paper and analyzed repeatedly for various UQ tasks. The first is a Python model solving a nonlinear structural dynamics problem, used to illustrate UQpy's capabilities in sampling and forward propagation of high dimensional random vectors (stochastic processes), and probabilistic inference. The second model is a third-party Abaqus finite element model solving the thermomechanical response of a beam structure. This example is used to illustrate UQpy's capabilities in variance reduction sampling techniques, reliability analysis, surrogate modeling and active learning techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

The modeling of risk perception in the use of structural health monitoring information for optimal maintenance decisions

This paper proposes an approach to select a maintenance strategy from a predefined set of choices considering the decision maker’s behavioral risk profile. It is assumed that the damage state is characterized by a continuous state parameter probabilistically inferred from observable sensor data. This work applies an engineering application of consequence-based decision-making incorporating the acceptable risk intensity of the decision-maker, i.e., the decision-maker’s (individual or an organization) valuation of the outcome of a decision, using a risk profile model. The utility of a decision-maker is subjective, and this paper considers the fact that different decision-makers mentally assign a different importance factor (the utility) to the seriousness or urgency to take necessary actions with the increasing intensity of structural damage. The approach herein incorporates a layer of human psychology on selecting appropriate maintenance strategies that not only depend on the posterior distribution of unmeasurable damage state but also consider the behavioral risk profile of the decision-maker. Further, the collective decision-making of an organization consisting of many individuals is also investigated. The approach is exemplified in a case study involving life cycle monitoring of a miter gate, part of a lock system enabling navigation of inland waterways.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A machine learning inversion scheme for determining interaction from scattering

Small angle scattering techniques have now been routinely used to quantitatively determine the potential of mean force in colloidal suspensions. However the numerical accuracy of data interpretation is often compounded by the approximations adopted by liquid state analytical theories. To circumvent this long standing issue, here we outline a machine learning strategy for determining the effective interaction in the condensed phases of matter using scattering. Via a case study of colloidal suspensions, we show that the effective potential can be probabilistically inferred from the scattering spectra without any restriction imposed by model assumptions. Comparisons to existing parametric approaches demonstrate the superior performance of this method in accuracy, efficiency, and applicability. This method can effectively enable quantification of interaction in highly correlated systems using scattering and diffraction experiments.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Small angle scattering of diblock copolymers profiled by machine learning

We outline a machine learning strategy for quantitively determining the conformation of AB-type diblock copolymers with excluded volume effects using small angle scattering. Complemented by computer simulations, a correlation matrix connecting conformations of different copolymers according to their scattering features is established on the mathematical framework of a Gaussian process, a multivariate extension of the familiar univariate Gaussian distribution. We show that the relevant conformational characteristics of copolymers can be probabilistically inferred from their coherent scattering cross sections without any restriction imposed by model assumptions. This work not only facilitates the quantitative structural analysis of copolymer solutions but also provides the reliable benchmarking for the related theoretical development of scattering functions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1994

Data Analysis with Graphical Models: Software Tools

Probabilistic graphical models (directed and undirected Markov fields, and combined in chain graphs) are used widely in expert systems, image processing and other areas as a framework for representing and reasoning with probabilities. They come with corresponding algorithms for performing probabilistic inference. This paper discusses an extension to these models by Spiegelhalter and Gilks, plates, used to graphically model the notion of a sample. This offers a graphical specification language for representing data analysis problems. When combined with general methods for statistical inference, this also offers a unifying framework for prototyping and/or generating data analysis algorithms from graphical specifications. This paper outlines the framework and then presents some basic tools for the task: a graphical version of the Pitman-Koopman Theorem for the exponential family, problem decomposition, and the calculation of exact Bayes factors. Other tools already developed, such as automatic differentiation, Gibbs sampling, and use of the EM algorithm, make this a broad basis for the generation of data analysis software.

Buntine, Wray L.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Monitoring a Complex Physical System using a Hybrid Dynamic Bayes Net

The Reverse Water Gas Shift system (RWGS) is a complex physical system designed to produce oxygen from the carbon dioxide atmosphere on Mars. If sent to Mars, it would operate without human supervision, thus requiring a reliable automated system for monitoring and control. The RWGS presents many challenges typical of real-world systems, including: noisy and biased sensors, nonlinear behavior, effects that are manifested over different time granularities, and unobservability of many important quantities. In this paper we model the RWGS using a hybrid (discrete/continuous) Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN), where the state at each time slice contains 33 discrete and 184 continuous variables. We show how the system state can be tracked using probabilistic inference over the model. We discuss how to deal with the various challenges presented by the RWGS, providing a suite of techniques that are likely to be useful in a wide range of applications. In particular, we describe a general framework for dealing with nonlinear behavior using numerical integration techniques, extending the successful Unscented Filter. We also show how to use a fixed-point computation to deal with effects that develop at different time scales, specifically rapid changes occuring during slowly changing processes. We test our model using real data collected from the RWGS, demonstrating the feasibility of hybrid DBNs for monitoring complex real-world physical systems.

Lerner, Uri↗
NASA NTRS2005

Semantic Analysis of Email Using Domain Ontologies and WordNet

The problem of capturing and accessing knowledge in paper form has been supplanted by a problem of providing structure to vast amounts of electronic information. Systems that can construct semantic links for natural language documents like email messages automatically will be a crucial element of semantic email tools. We have designed an information extraction process that can leverage the knowledge already contained in an existing semantic web, recognizing references in email to existing nodes in a network of ontology instances by using linguistic knowledge and knowledge of the structure of the semantic web. We developed a heuristic score that uses several forms of evidence to detect references in email to existing nodes in the Semanticorganizer repository's network. While these scores cannot directly support automated probabilistic inference, they can be used to rank nodes by relevance and link those deemed most relevant to email messages.

Berrios, Daniel C.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Overview of the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys

The DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys (http://legacysurvey.org/) are a combination of three public projects (the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey, the Beijing–Arizona Sky Survey, and the Mayall z-band Legacy Survey) that will jointly image ≈14,000 deg{sup 2} of the extragalactic sky visible from the northern hemisphere in three optical bands (g, r, and z) using telescopes at the Kitt Peak National Observatory and the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory. The combined survey footprint is split into two contiguous areas by the Galactic plane. The optical imaging is conducted using a unique strategy of dynamically adjusting the exposure times and pointing selection during observing that results in a survey of nearly uniform depth. In addition to calibrated images, the project is delivering a catalog, constructed by using a probabilistic inference-based approach to estimate source shapes and brightnesses. The catalog includes photometry from the grz optical bands and from four mid-infrared bands (at 3.4, 4.6, 12, and 22 μm) observed by the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer satellite during its full operational lifetime. The project plans two public data releases each year. All the software used to generate the catalogs is also released with the data. This paper provides an overview of the Legacy Surveys project.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-Driven Probabilistic Voltage Risk Assessment of MiniWECC System with Uncertain PVs and Wind Generations using Realistic Data

Here, it is found from actual data that due to generation dispatch and uncertain renewable generations and loads with complicated correlations, inferring the probabilistic distributions for uncertain inputs is challenging. Many probabilistic power flow approaches have been developed in the literature but their validations using realistic systems and data are lacking. This paper proposes a data-driven probabilistic analysis approach for system risk assessment of the miniWECC system using actual data. The sparse Gaussian process (SGP) is advocated to quantify the impacts of uncertain inputs on voltage security. SGP does not need the probability distribution function of uncertain inputs, can handle correlations and is highly computationally efficient. Results on the miniWECC system using realistic data show that SGP outperforms existing approaches and is able to quantify the voltage violation risks.

17 WIND ENERGY↗