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DOE OSTI2024

scANN

SAND2025-00656O scANN, also known as sampling by coinflips artificial neural networks, is a software tool that estimates uncertainty in artificial intelligence by performing Monte Carlo analysis on the weight matrices of feedforward neural networks. This computationally intensive process aims to explore the potential value added by future probabilistic hardware. The program’s output helps researchers gain insights into how probabilistic neural networks work. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty-Informed Operation Coordination in a Water-Energy Nexus

The widespread deployment of smart heterogeneous technologies and the growing complexity in our modern society calls for effective coordination of the interdependent lifeline networks. In particular, operation coordination of electric power and water infrastructures is urgently needed as the water system is one of the most energy-intensive networks, an interruption in which may quickly evolve into a dramatic societal concern. This paper develops a novel analytic for uncertainty-aware day-ahead operation optimization of the interconnected power and water systems (PaWS). Joint probabilistic constraint (JPC) programming is employed to capture the uncertainties in wind resources and water demand forecasts. The proposed integrated stochastic model is presented as a non-linear non-convex optimization problem, where the non-linear hydraulic constraints in the water network are linearized using piece-wise linearization technique, and the non-convexity is efficiently tackled with a solution methodology to convert the proposed model with JPCs to a tractable mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation that can be quickly solved to optimality. Here, the suggested framework is applied to a 15-node commercial-scale water network jointly operated with a power transmission system using a modified IEEE 57-bus test system. The numerical results demonstrate the of the proposed stochastic framework, resulting in cost reduction (13% on average when compared to the traditional setting) and energy saving of the integrated model under different realizations of uncertain renewable energy sources (RESs) and water demand scenarios. Additionally, the scalability of the proposed model is tested on a modified IEEE 118-bus test system connected to five water networks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Expansion of Hazards and Probabilistic Risk Assessments of a Light-Water Reactor Coupled with Electrolysis Hydrogen Production Plants

This report builds upon the body of work sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) Light-Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Flexible Power Operation and Generation (FPOG) program that presented generic probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) for the addition of a heat extraction system (HES) to light-water reactors to support the co-location of a high temperature hydrogen electrolysis facility (HTEF). Probabilistic and deterministic hazards assessments and risk analyses are leveraged throughout this report. Several improvements and new analyses are included in this report. First, higher amounts of detail in the specifications of the generic HTEFs are used to produce scaled results for a 100, 500, and 1000 MW nominal hydrogen production facility. An additional hazard assessment of 1000 kg of hydrogen storage is performed. The facility hazards and footprint are assessed to determine the safe distance required for placement near the nuclear power plant (NPP). Second, specific designs for corresponding HESs for the different levels of support required by the HTEFs are analyzed in the PRA model. Third, a hazards analysis of the specified HTEFs leads not only to effects of the quantified risk assessment for the NPP, but also qualitative hazards assessment for the community. Finally, a seismic analysis and a high winds analysis have each been added to the PRA. The results investigate the applicability of the potential licensing approaches which do not require a full United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing review. The PRAs are generic and include listed assumptions. The HTEF design built for this project has further eliminated many conservative assumptions from the prior PRAs in this series. The PRA results indicate that the 10 CFR 50.59 licensing approach is justified due to the minimal increase in initiating event frequencies for all design basis accidents, with none exceeding 7.7%. The PRA results for core damage frequency and large early release frequency support the use of NRC Regulation Guide 1.174 as further risk information that supports a change without a full licensing amendment review. The hazard analyses and PRA confirm the need for engineered blast barriers of storage tanks and the common production header leaving the HTEF. The hazards analyses and PRA also confirm with high confidence that using the assumptions of design in this report that the safety case for licensing an HES addition and an HTEF sited with its unprotected high-pressure stage components 187 meters from the NPP’s transmission towers (the most fragile structure, system, and component) is strong.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Planning Amidst Uncertainty: Identifying Core CCS Infrastructure Robust to Storage Uncertainty

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a critical technology for reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but its large-scale deployment is complicated by uncertainties in geological storage performance. These uncertainties pose significant financial and operational risks, as underperforming storage sites can lead to costly infrastructure modifications, inefficient pipeline routing, and economic shortfalls. To address this challenge, we propose a novel optimization workflow that is based on mixed-integer linear programming and explicitly integrates probabilistic modeling of storage uncertainty into CCS infrastructure design. This workflow generates multiple infrastructure scenarios by sampling storage capacity distributions, optimally solving each scenario using a mixed-integer linear programming model, and aggregating results into a heatmap to identify core infrastructure components that have a low likelihood of underperforming. A risk index parameter is introduced to balance trade-offs between cost, CO2 processing capacity, and risk of underperformance, allowing stakeholders to quantify and mitigate uncertainty in CCS planning. Applying this workflow to a CCS dataset from the US Department of Energy’s Carbon Utilization and Storage Partnership project reveals key insights into infrastructure resilience. Reducing the risk index from 15% to 0% is observed to lead to an 83.7% reduction in CO2 processing capacity and a 77.1% decrease in project profit, quantifying the trade-off between risk tolerance and project performance. Furthermore, our results highlight critical breakpoints, where small adjustments in the risk index produce disproportionate shifts in infrastructure performance, providing actionable guidance for decision-makers. Unlike prior approaches that aimed to cheaply repair underperforming infrastructure, our workflow constructs robust CCS networks from the ground up, ensuring cost-effective infrastructure under storage uncertainty. These findings demonstrate the practical relevance of incorporating uncertainty-aware optimization into CCS planning, equipping decision-makers with a tool to make informed project planning decisions.

Olson, Daniel↗

DOE OSTI2020

Achieving the End State for the Pahute Mesa Corrective Action Units at the Nevada National Security Site - 20355

Underground nuclear testing at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) ended in 1992. To address the impact of radionuclide contamination from underground nuclear testing on the groundwater resources of Nevada, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) Nevada Program created the Underground Test Area (UGTA) activity to characterize the radionuclides in groundwater, understand the nature and extent of radionuclide migration, and forecast the distribution of radionuclides in groundwater for 1,000 years. The UGTA activity is regulated by the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO), an agreement negotiated between the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP), DOE, and the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). DOE is close to achieving the end state (closure in place with monitoring and institutional control) for three of the five UGTA corrective action units (CAUs) on the NNSS. A number of challenges remain to achieve the end state of the other two CAUs, both located on Pahute Mesa. Pahute Mesa was the location of 82 underground nuclear tests, less than 10% of the total number of tests on the NNSS. Yet, Pahute Mesa contains slightly more than 60% of the total radionuclides (in curies). Based on groundwater sampling in monitoring wells, two radionuclide plumes have migrated several kilometers (km) in groundwater from selected test cavities and have crossed the boundary of the NNSS (yet remain within the boundaries of Federally controlled land). The path to achieve the end state continues to evolve as more data are collected and a better understanding of radionuclide migration in groundwater is developed. DOE has invested in drilling and sampling more than 50 characterization and monitoring groundwater wells over the past 25 years. The data indicate that the primary radionuclide of concern is tritium as it is about 89% of the total radionuclide inventory (in curies). As well, only tritium has been measured in groundwater outside of cavities at concentrations exceeding the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) standard. For one of the tritium plumes that has migrated across the NNSS boundary, the average rate of migration has been measured as about 45 meters (m) per year with the rate of migration at the leading edge of the plume of about 85 meters per year. At that rate of migration, the tritium plume will decay to safe levels and not reach the publicly accessible environment at concentrations above the SDWA standard. Other radionuclides, at concentrations below the SDWA standards, will be monitored to ensure they remain at safe levels. Consequently, the end state path forward for Pahute Mesa has evolved to take full advantage of the data from the monitoring network to constrain uncertainty in model forecasts and to reduce reliance on probabilistic simulations. The focus of the end state approach relies on developing a monitoring well network that is protective of human health by increasing confidence that no radionuclide plume in the groundwater will migrate undetected to the accessible environment, located about 22 km from the nearest up-gradient underground nuclear test. Using the measured data to remove uncertainty, the evaluation of radionuclide migration from Pahute Mesa is directed toward meeting the goals of the end state. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2019

Distributions of the Mean for Lognormally Distributed Data - 19427

In environmental sciences, a distribution of the mean is often needed for right-skewed data. For example, risk assessments are often based on distributions of the mean to obtain upper confidence limits (UCLs) for analyte concentrations, and, in probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) models, parameters are given distributions rather than deterministic values, and they are usually given distributions of their mean rather than the population distributions to account for the large spatial and temporal domains to which they are applied. How this distribution of the mean is developed depends on the characteristics of the parameter's full distribution and how the parameter relates to its use. In this presentation, I will discuss the implications of a right skew in distribution development. Parameters may vary over orders of magnitude and/or may be right-skewed. The material property of saturated hydraulic conductivity, Ks, is a prime example of such a parameter. Right-skewed parameters are often assumed to follow lognormal distributions. If X follows a lognormal distribution, then log(X) follows a normal distribution. For some right-skewed parameters, practitioners go back and forth between the two forms of the data depending on their needs. For example, it may be preferred to use the untransformed version of X in a model or equation, but it is easier to visualize the parameter values on a logarithmic scale. However, distribution development for the average value of the parameter will differ depending on whether X or log(X) is modeled. This difference is due to Jensen's Inequality, a theorem which states that the expected value of a concave function of a variable is less than or equal to the same function of the expected value of the variable; a logarithm is a concave function. In other words, the mean of log(X) is always less than or equal to the log of the mean of X and therefore the mean estimated from a distribution based on log(X) is less than or equal to the mean estimated from a distribution based on X. If a parameter is naturally considered on a log scale by subject matter experts, then distributions developed for the mean of log(X) may be more consistent with the use of the parameters in the literature than distributions developed for X. The statistical decisions of distribution development will be discussed within the context of right-skewed, lognormal data. These issues include method-of-moments versus maximum likelihood estimation of the distribution parameters and the use of bootstrapping to aid in the visualization of a distribution of the mean. The details surrounding Jensen's Inequality will be explained and visualized within the context of distribution development of a right-skewed parameter such as saturated hydraulic conductivity. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Concrete structural health monitoring in nuclear power plants - 212

Assessment and management of aging concrete structures in nuclear power plants require a more systematic approach than simple reliance on existing code margins of safety. Health monitoring of concrete structures is performed in order to understand the current condition of a structure based on heterogeneous measurements and produce high-confidence actionable information regarding structural integrity. This information can be used to support operational and maintenance decisions. This paper describes a framework of research activities for health monitoring of nuclear power plant concrete structures. The proposed framework consists of four elements: (1) health monitoring, (2) data analytics, (3) uncertainty quantification, and (4) prognosis. The goal of this framework is to enable plant operators to make risk-informed decisions about structural integrity, remaining useful life, and performance of concrete structures across the nuclear fleet. Among several concrete degradations, research focuses on degradation caused by the alkali-silica reaction (ASR). ASR is a chemical reaction that, in the presence of sufficient moisture, forms a gel that increases in volume and exerts an expansive pressure inside the material, thus causing micro to macro-cracks. This paper also presents development of controlled concrete samples with reactive aggregates to cause ASR degradation and application of different non-destructive evaluation techniques to detect the damage caused by ASR. Initial results are presented in the paper along with a potential path forward. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Induced seismicity potential based on probabilistic geomechanics for the San Juan Basin CarbonSAFE project

Although geologic carbon sequestration projects have yet to induce — or may never induce — a damaging earthquake, experiences from other deep injection industries such as hydraulic fracturing, enhanced geothermal systems, and saltwater disposal suggest that effective quantitative seismic risk assessment is necessary for deep saline carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) projects. One such imminent CCS project is the San Juan Basin CarbonSAFE Phase III program. We use Monte Carlo probabilistic geomechanical analyses combined with observations of the geologic and operational parameters of the San Juan Basin site and suggest that this project is of low-induced seismic risk. The primary analysis is split into four sections. First, we assess the literature for faults and past seismicity, and at least five faulting scenarios are directly relevant. Second, we develop and calibrate an integrated earth model for the project site. Third, we perform Monte Carlo simulations that consider reasonable uncertainties of the geomechanical parameters. Of five tested faulting scenarios, only one presents high Coulomb failure functions, but fourth, we determine the risk to be low based on the combined lack of historical seismicity, the geologic framework of the faulting scenario, and the presence of saltwater injection at the same depth as the proposed supercritical carbon dioxide injection. The most sensitive parameters in the geomechanical calculations are the fault dip and the coefficient of friction. The least sensitive are the fault strike and the orientation of the maximum horizontal principal stress.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

SPARTAN (Scalable Probabilistic Application Reconfigurable Tensor Autonomous Network)

The technical founder of Ludwig Computing Inc has been competitively selected for support by Cyclotron Road, a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) Lab-Embedded Entrepreneurship Program (LEEP) through an approved merit review process. Ludwig Computing Inc, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Advanced Manufacturing Office through the Cyclotron Road program, has investigated the advantages of probabilistic computing for real-world compute-intensive applications. This research adds to the understanding of alternative computing paradigms by exploring a unique hardware-software co-design that integrates quantum computing methods with nature-inspired problem-solving techniques. The project's focus on areas such as combinatorial optimization, graph analytics, and machine learning demonstrates the potential for significant advancements in computational efficiency and performance. By harnessing natural randomness to streamline large circuits into fewer devices, Ludwig's approach enables massive parallelism, potentially offering higher throughput, speed, and energy efficiency compared to conventional hardware solutions. This work benefits the public by paving the way for more efficient computing solutions that could address complex real-world problems while potentially reducing energy consumption in data-intensive industries.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic Nanomagnetic Memories for Uncertain and Robust Machine Learning

This project evaluated the use of emerging spintronic memory devices for robust and efficient variational inference schemes. Variational inference (VI) schemes, which constrain the distribution for each weight to be a Gaussian distribution with a mean and standard deviation, are a tractable method for calculating posterior distributions of weights in a Bayesian neural network such that this neural network can also be trained using the powerful backpropagation algorithm. Our project focuses on domain-wall magnetic tunnel junctions (DW-MTJs), a powerful multi-functional spintronic synapse design that can achieve low power switching while also opening the pathway towards repeatable, analog operation using fabricated notches. Our initial efforts to employ DW-MTJs as an all-in-one stochastic synapse with both a mean and standard deviation didn’t end up meeting the quality metrics for hardware-friendly VI. In the future, new device stacks and methods for expressive anisotropy modification may make this idea still possible. However, as a fall back that immediately satisfies our requirements, we invented and detailed how the combination of a DW-MTJ synapse encoding the mean and a probabilistic Bayes-MTJ device, programmed via a ferroelectric or ionically modifiable layer, can robustly and expressively implement VI. This design includes a physics-informed small circuit model, that was scaled up to perform and demonstrate rigorous uncertainty quantification applications, up to and including small convolutional networks on a grayscale image classification task, and larger (Residual) networks implementing multi-channel image classification. Lastly, as these results and ideas all depend upon the idea of an inference application where weights (spintronic memory states) remain non-volatile, the retention of these synapses for the notched case was further interrogated. These investigations revealed and emphasized the importance of both notch geometry and anisotropy modification in order to further enhance the endurance of written spintronic states. In the near future, these results will be mapped to effective predictions for room temperature and elevated operation DW-MTJ memory retention, and experimentally verified when devices become available.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Application of Point Precipitation Frequency Estimates to Watersheds

This report documents work sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) as part of the RES project, “Application of Point Precipitation Frequency Estimates to Watersheds.” This project was implemented as part of the Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program. The objective of the PFHA Research Program is to develop tools and guidance on the use of PFHA methods to risk-inform NRC’s licensing of new facilities as well as licensing and oversight of currently operating facilities as they relate to flooding hazards. Many nuclear power plants (NPPs) are located on or near rivers so riverine flooding hazards need to be considered in their design and operation. Probabilistic riverine flood models are important tools for realistic assessment of flooding risks. However, these models require areal estimates of the depth, duration, and frequency of rainfall distributed over the watershed, which are not often available. Point precipitation frequency estimates are more widely available. For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has published NOAA Atlas 14, which provides point precipitation frequency estimates for 5-minute through 60-day durations at average recurrence intervals of 1-year through 1,000-year. The research documented in this report addresses areal reduction factors (ARFs), which can be used to convert the widely available point precipitation frequency estimates, to estimates of areal precipitation frequency over a watershed. The most widely used ARF source is Technical Paper 29 (TP-29) published by the then U.S. Weather Bureau in 1958. However, both the methods and the underlying precipitation data used to produce TP-29 are seriously out of date. For example, due to the small gauge network available at the time of TP-29’s compilation, ARF estimates developed are only for watersheds smaller than about 400 square miles. Due to the relatively short record lengths of precipitation data available, frequency considerations could not be accurately determined. Other factors such as regional climate and seasonality were not addressed. Several newer methods have been published since TP-29 was developed and both the type and quantity of precipitation data have increased significantly, along with computational resources and analytical tools such as geographic information systems. This report reviewed and assessed the available precipitation products and methods for conducting ARF analysis. The work applied up-to-date precipitation data products and analysis methods with a novel watershed-based approach to investigate how ARF estimates vary across different methods, data sources, geographical locations, return periods, and seasons. The overall findings reported here regarding basic ARF trends are in line with other recent studies showing that ARFs decrease with increasing area, increase with increasing duration, and decrease with increasing return period. This study found significant differences among the available ARF methods. This work also found a strong geographical variability across different US hydrologic regions, suggesting that the ARF are specific to regional climate patterns and geographical characteristics and should not be applied arbitrarily to other locations. The results also reveal the importance of data record length, especially for high return level ARFs. The work reported in NUREG/CR-7271 will assist NRC staff in assessing different classes of ARF methods in conjunction with available rainfall data sets. It will also support the development of guidance for application of point precipitation data in PFHAs. It should be noted that the ARF values presented in this report for any location or region were developed for the purposes of comparing methods and investigating the factors that influence ARFs. They should not be considered official and should not be used in leu of a site-specific analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Critical Review of Current Practice and Approaches

This report documents the initial findings from the Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC)-sponsored research project Methods for Estimating Joint Probabilities of Coincident and Correlated Flooding Mechanisms for Nuclear Power Plant Flood Hazard Assessments.1 This research project is a part of NRC’s Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program and will aid the development of guidance on the use of PFHA methods to evaluate infrastructure safety for existing and proposed US nuclear power plants (NPPs). More specifically, this project intends to provide technical background for the development of flood hazard curves for multi-mechanism floods (MMFs). MMFs are flood events caused by more than one flooding mechanism (e.g., flood events due to the simultaneous occurrence of precipitation-induced river flooding and storm surge). Project activities include three main tasks: Task 1—Survey of current concepts and methods in assessing MMF hazards; Task 2—Critical assessment of selected methods and approaches for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk; Task 3—Development of example case studies to illustrate best practices for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk The initial findings from Tasks 1 and 2 are documented in this report. Task 1 comprised a survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to understand and assess flood hazards due to MMFs. Task 2 involved a critical review of the selected approaches and methods. To that end, the scope of this report includes documentation of (1) a reconnaissance-level survey of the current state of concepts and practice for MMF hazard assessment; (2) a generalized MMF assessment framework to address the distinctions among various types of flood-forcing phenomena, flood mechanisms (grouped into three mechanism types), and flood severity metrics; (3) a wide-ranging survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to various flooding phenomena and settings; and (4) a critical assessment of MMF hazard assessment methods. Studies were identified involving MMFs related to coastal flooding mechanisms, fluvial (rivers/streams) flooding mechanisms, and associated combinations of coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms. Studies were also identified that address MMFs involving coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms as well as coastal flooding mechanisms along with extreme precipitation (without specific attribution to fluvial or pluvial mechanisms). The studies identified for review in this report included assessments at varying spatial scales (from local to global) with differing geographic regions of focus using both observed and synthetic data. The majority of studies identified and reviewed were site-specific assessments focusing on relatively short return periods. Studies considered a range of flood severity metrics, made differing assumptions regarding the occurrence of extrema, and used multiple statistical techniques; the use of copulas for the development of joint distributions was a particularly popular analysis technique. The literature review highlighted the differences among existing studies relative to terminology used, means of presenting results, framework and techniques employed, and level of sophistication regarding the number and types of variables considered. Despite the significant diversity in existing studies, the review identified several promising techniques that will be considered in future work under this project, including the development of joint distributions for MMFs using copula and Bayesian-motivated approaches.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Multi-Stage Stochastic Risk Assessment With Markovian Representation of Renewable Power

Probabilistic forecasts provide a distribution of possible outputs and so can capture the uncertainty and variability of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE). However, taking advantage of uncertainty information has practical challenges that make it difficult to integrate probabilistic forecasting into control room decision-making. This paper proposes a novel use-case for probabilistic forecasts by incorporating them into the hour-ahead operations for situational awareness via a risk-averse multi-stage stochastic program. We employ a Markovian representation of the probabilistic forecasts that enables the formulation of the multi-stage problem and avoids a scenario generation phase. We test the model on a realistically sized system to assess risk and showcase the capability of using probabilistic renewable forecast as input to produce probabilistic output forecasts of future system states. The results show that the model can capture time consistency in the reserves and Area Control Error (ACE) forecast. The solution times are adequate for risk profiling in hour-ahead timescales.

forecasting↗

DOE OSTI2019

Potential Impacts of Accelerated Climate Change: Third Annual Report of Work

This study is part of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) research program that aims to develop regulatory tools and guidance to support and enhance the NRC’s capacity to perform thorough and efficient risk-informed reviews of license applications and license amendment requests. The NRC asked Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to prepare a summary of current climate research and results regarding hydrometeorological phenomena that are of interest in safety assessments and environmental impact assessments for commercial nuclear power plants. In Year 1, PNNL staff prepared an annual report that summarized recent scientific findings about global and regional climate change, with a particular focus on climatic elements that are relevant to NRC concerns on a national level (i.e., increasing air and water temperatures, decreasing water availability, increasing frequency and intensity of storms and flooding, and sea-level rise). In Year 2 activities, PNNL staff summarized recent research findings about climate change for the Southeast Region of the United States (i.e., historical and projected changes in air temperature, precipitation, hurricanes, sea-level rise, storm surge, tornadoes, flooding, and low flows). This current report summarizes Year 3 activities, which focused on reviewing region-specific scientific findings about climate change for the Midwest Region. Consistent with the U.S. Global Change Research Program Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) and the Climate Science Special Report for the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4, Volume I), this report defines the Midwest Region to comprise eight states—Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Except for Indiana, the states in the Midwest Region have operating nuclear power plants. Further, new nuclear power reactor permit and license applications have been submitted to the NRC in the recent past for sites located in two midwestern states. Therefore, having an improved understanding of potential climate changes and their hydrologic impacts in the Midwest Region is important to informing the PFHA research program.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Critical Review of Current Practice and Approaches

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Chance-constrained Service Restoration for Distribution Networks with Renewables

Power systems operation is facing great challenges from natural disasters and cyber-attacks. It is critical but also difficult to enhance the reliability and resilience against extreme events. To better response to inevitable outages or blackouts, service restoration in distribution networks is important to minimize the disastrous impacts of catastrophic events. The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) provides new opportunities to expedite the restoration process. However, the coordination with conventional distribution system control devices and the uncertainty and variability of intermittent renewable energy resources requires new operation and control strategies for distribution service restoration (DSR). This paper develops an optimal bottom-up DSR strategy by coordinating DERs with voltage regulators and capacitor banks. The chance-constrained (CC) programming approach is used to model the probabilistic output limit of solar radiation and PV generation. The Markov's inequality and Latin hypercube sampling techniques are applied to convert and incorporate the chance constraints into the DSR optimization problem. The CC-DSR problem is formulated as a mixed integer convex programming problem, considering various operational cost functions and bidirectional three-phase unbalanced load flow. Simulation results on the modified IEEE 13-node test feeder system demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of the bottom-up DSR strategy.

Chance constrained optimization, Distribution serv↗

DOE OSTI2018

An air quality index-based multistage type-2-fuzzy interval-stochastic programming model for energy and environmental systems management under multiple uncertainties

Highlights: • A multistage type-2-fuzzy interval-stochastic programming (MTIP) method is developed. • Air quality index (AQI) is introduced to manage energy and environmental systems. • AQI-MTIP model is formulated and results for Tianjin's EES are generated. • Impacts of environmental requirements on energy systems is analyzed. • Results can provide support for making effective pollutant mitigation policy. In this study, a multistage type-2-fuzzy interval-stochastic programming (MTIP) method is developed, which extends upon the existing multistage stochastic programming (MSP) by allowing uncertainties expressed as probabilistic distributions, interval values and type-2 fuzzy sets to be effectively incorporated within the optimization framework. Through coupling air quality index (AQI) with MTIP, an AQI-MTIP model is formulated for energy and environmental systems (EES) management of Tianjin. A number of scenarios based on changed AQIs are examined to analyze the impacts of environmental requirements on the city's energy system. Results indicate that (i) with the improvement of environmental requirement, utilization of clean energies (especially natural gas) is provoked markedly; (ii) PM{sub 2.5} is the primary pollutant, 64.50% of which should be reduced each period to maintain the city's air quality at a health-safe level. These findings can help decision makers adjust energy structure, make effective mitigation strategy, and gain deep insight into the relationship between energy consumption and environmental requirement.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hazards and Probabilistic Risk Assessments of Advanced Nuclear Reactors Coupled with Industrial Facilities

This report provides a roadmap and tool kit for site specific risk assessments across a broad range of industrial customers co-located with advanced nuclear power plants (ANPP) that are not currently built and operating in the U.S. This report builds upon the body of work sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) Integrated Energy Systems Pathway that has produced industrial requirements studies and techno-economic assessments on the topics of feasibility of ANPP supported industrial processes. This report also leverages the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program that has presented hazards assessment and generic probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) for the addition of a heat extraction system (HES) to light-water reactors (LWRs) co-located with hydrogen production facilities. Many of the hazard assessments and risk assessments performed for the LWRS report are agnostic to whether the nuclear reactor is an ANPP or were adapted to the ANPP focus. The report performs hazards assessments to include industrial facilities: an oil refinery, a methanol plant, a synthetic fuel (synfuel) plant, the production of synthetic gas (syngas) as part of the methanol and synfuel plants, wood pulp and paper mills, and hydrogen production. Hydrogen production facilities are assessed in depth through prior reports in the LWRS program and the results are leveraged in this report. All these facilities are specified through industrial process and requirements research performed by national laboratories, universities, and interaction with industry. Many of the processes used in this report are pre-conceptual designs to use for decarbonization of the current technology facilities. A process of failure modes and effects analysis (what can go wrong) and accidentology (what has historically gone wrong) was used to determine the hazards presented to the nuclear power plant by the addition of the HES and the industrial customer. Chemical properties of feedstocks and products are summarized as part of the hazards assessment. Example analysis procedures are provided for each of the hazard types identified. These deterministic analyses can be used to assess adherence to licensing criteria. They can also be used to meet other safety goals like protection of the public, workers, or industrial facility equipment. A modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR) PRA only existing on paper was modeled and verified in modern PRA software. This will provide a tool for representative ANPP probabilistic analyses for future research.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗