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DOE OSTI2024

Statistical analysis of magnetic divertor configuration influence on H-mode transitions

DIII-D plasmas are compared for two upper divertor configurations: with the outer strike point on the small angle slot (SAS) divertor target and with the outer strike point on the horizontal divertor target (HT). Scanning the vertical distance between the magnetic null point and the divertor target over a range 0.10–0.16 m is shown to increase the threshold power, $P_\mathrm{th}$, and edge plasma power, $P_\mathrm{Loss},$ for the low-to-high confinement (L–H) and H–L transitions respectively, by up to a factor of 1.4. The X-point height scans were performed at three L-mode core plasma line average electron densities, $\bar{n}_\mathrm{e} = $ 1.2, 2.2 and 3.6 $\times 10^{19}\,\mathrm{m}^{-3}$, to investigate the density dependence of divertor magnetic configuration influence on $P_\mathrm{th}$. The X-point height, $Z_\textrm{x-pt}$, was further extended across the range 0.16–0.22 m with the more open HT divertor configuration, for which a clear decrease in $P_\mathrm{th}$ with increasing $Z_\textrm{x-pt}$ is observed. The dependence of $P_\textrm{th}$ on divertor magnetic geometry is further investigated using a time-dependent probability density function (PDF) model and information geometry to elucidate the roles played by pedestal plasma turbulence and perpendicular velocity flows. The degree of stochasticity of the plasma turbulence is observed to be sensitive to the plasma heating rate. The calculated square of the information rate shows changes in the relative density fluctuations and perpendicular velocity PDFs begin 2–5 ms prior to the L–H transition for three plasmas; providing a crucial measurement of the dynamic timescale of external transport barrier formation. Additionally, both information length and rate provide potential predictors of the L–H transition for these plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Size resolved particle volatility for 30, 60, and 90 nm particles collected at the EPCAPE Mount Soledad site from 04/23/2023 to 06/15/2023

VTDMA GF-PDF: Growth factor probability density functions from the Gysel inversion are located here, where probability is out of 200. The instrument measured three different diameters 30 nm, 60nm and 90nm each diameter was selected for an hour. During that hour three different temperatures where scanned (40°C, 80°C, 160°C) in between each temperature a bypass scan was taken at room temperature. Each scan took 10-minutes and scanned growth factors from 0.2-1.2. Calibrations of the instrument with NaCl were performed on 4/26/2023 from 11:20 to 14:20, on 5/16/2023 from 11:40 to 16:00, and on 5/30/2023 from 10:20 to 14:20. Calibrations with (NH4)2SO4 were performed on 5/8/2023 from 11:45 to 14:40, on 5/23/2023 from 11:20 to 3:00, and on 6/14/2023 from 13:00 to 16:00. Time is recorded in seconds since 1/1/1904. GF_Vol_avg: Growth factor volume average calculated by the Gysel inversion. The instrument measured three different diameters 30 nm, 60nm and 90nm each diameter was selected for an hour. During that hour three different temperatures where scanned (40°C, 80°C, 160°C) in between each temperature a bypass scan was taken at room temperature. Each scan took 10-minutes and scanned growth factors from 0.2-1.2. Calibrations of the instrument with NaCl were performed on 4/26/2023 from 11:20 to 14:20, on 5/16/2023 from 11:40 to 16:00, and on 5/30/2023 from 10:20 to 14:20. Calibrations with (NH4)2SO4 were performed on 5/8/2023 from 11:45 to 14:40, on 5/23/2023 from 11:20 to 3:00, and on 6/14/2023 from 13:00 to 16:00. Time is recorded in seconds since 1/1/1904.

30nm growth factor volume average at 160C (GF_vol_↗

DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling core and edge mechanisms of the density limit in DIII-D negative triangularity plasmas

The density limit is investigated in the DIII-D negative triangularity plasmas which lack a standard H-mode edge. We find the limit may not be a singular disruptive boundary but a multifaceted density saturation phenomenon governed by distinct core and edge transport mechanisms. Sustained, non-disruptive operation is achieved at densities up to 1.8 times the Greenwald limit ($n_\mathrm{G}$) until the termination of auxiliary heating. Systematic power scans show distinct power scalings for the core ($n_e \propto P_\mathrm{SOL}^{0.27\pm0.03}$) and edge ($n_e \propto P_\mathrm{SOL}^{0.42\pm0.04}$) density limits. The edge density saturation is triggered by the onset of a non-disruptive, high-field side radiation front and the associated cooling, which clamps the edge density below . In contrast, the core density continues to rise until it saturates, a state characterized by enhanced core turbulence. Core transport evolves from a diffusive to an intermittent, avalanche-like state, as indicated by heavy-tailed probability density functions (kurtosis ≈ 6), increased Hurst exponents, and a $1/f$-type power spectrum. These findings suggest that the density limit in the low-confinement regime is determined by a combination of edge radiative cooling and core turbulent transport. This distinction provides separate targets for control strategies aimed at extending the operational space of future fusion devices.

density limit↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Poisson tensor completion non-parametric differential entropy estimator

We introduce the Poisson tensor completion (PTC) estimator, a non-parametric differential entropy estimator. The PTC estimator leverages inter-sample relationships to compute a low-rank Poisson tensor decomposition of the frequency histogram. Our crucial observation is that the histogram bins are an instance of a space partitioning of counts and thus can be identified with a spatial Poisson process. The Poisson tensor decomposition leads to a completion of the intensity measure over all bins—including those containing few to no samples—and leads to our proposed PTC differential entropy estimator. A Poisson tensor decomposition models the underlying distribution of the count data and guarantees non-negative estimated values and so can be safely used directly in entropy estimation. Our estimator is the first tensor-based estimator that exploits the underlying spatial Poisson process related to the histogram explicitly when estimating the probability density with low-rank tensor decompositions for the purpose of tensor completion. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our PTC estimator is a substantial improvement over standard histogram-based estimators for sub-Gaussian probability distributions because of the concentration of norm phenomenon.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

The construction of large-scale structure catalogs for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument

We present the technical details on how large-scale structure (LSS) catalogs are constructed from redshifts measured from spectra observed by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). The LSS catalogs provide the information needed to determine the relative number density of DESI tracers as a function of redshift and celestial coordinates and, e.g., determine clustering statistics. We produce catalogs that are weighted subsamples of the observed data, each matched to a weighted `random' catalog that forms an unclustered sampling of the probability density that DESI could have observed those data at each location. Precise knowledge of the DESI observing history and associated hardware performance allows for a determination of the DESI footprint and the number of times DESI has covered it at sub-arcsecond level precision. This enables the completeness of any DESI sample to be modeled at this same resolution. The pipeline developed to create LSS catalogs has been designed to easily allow robustness tests and enable future improvements. We describe how it allows ongoing work improving the match between galaxy and random catalogs, such as including further information when assigning redshifts to randoms, accounting for fluctuations in target density, accounting for variation in the redshift success rate, and accommodating blinding schemes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Copacabana: a probabilistic membership assignment method for galaxy clusters

Cosmological analyses using galaxy clusters in optical/near-infrared photometric surveys require robust characterization of their galaxy content. Precisely determining which galaxies belong to a cluster is crucial. In this paper, we present the COlor Probabilistic Assignment of Clusters And BAyesiaN Analysis (Copacabana) algorithm. Copacabana computes membership probabilities for all galaxies within an aperture centred on the cluster using photometric redshifts, colours, and projected radial probability density functions. We use simulations to validate Copacabana and we show that it achieves up to 89 per cent membership accuracy with a mild dependence on photometric redshift uncertainties and choice of aperture size. We find that the precision of the photometric redshifts has the largest impact on the determination of the membership probabilities followed by the choice of the cluster aperture size. We also quantify how much these uncertainties in the membership probabilities affect the stellar mass–cluster mass scaling relation, a relation that directly impacts cosmology. Using the sum of the stellar masses weighted by membership probabilities (⁠μ * ⁠) as the observable, we find that Copacabana can reach an accuracy of 0.06 dex in the measurement of the scaling relation at low redshift for a Legacy Survey of Space and Time type survey. These results indicate the potential of Copacabana and μ * to be used in cosmological analyses of optically selected clusters in the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Turbulence statistical analysis of the L-H transition and RMPs in KSTAR

Here, we investigate the turbulence statistics associated with low-to-high confinement (L-H) transitions and externally applied resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) in KSTAR. Time-series fluctuations of electron density n e , electron temperature T e , and the time derivative of the poloidal magnetic field dB θ /dt (Mirnov coils) are analysed using information-geometric measures (information rate Γ and information length $\mathcal{L}$ = ∫ Γ dt), together with kurtosis κ and variance σ 2 . In low-density upper single-null plasmas (n e ~ 1.2 x 10 19 m -3 ), a ~80 kHz magnetic mode coupling n e , T e , dB θ /dt and emerges prior to the L-H transition and persists into the edge-localised modes H-mode. Edge-localised RMPs (ERMPs) suppress this coherent mode but enhance intermittency, producing frequent bursts that abruptly reshape the time-dependent probability density functions (PDFs) and generate large spikes in Γ (with smaller changes in κ), signalling ERMP-driven departures from quasi-stationarity. The impact of ERMPs on background fluctuation levels depends on density, radial location, and the fluctuating variable itself ($\tilde{n}$, $\tilde{T}$, $\dot{B}$ θ ), whereas $\mathcal{L}$ provides a robust, regime-agnostic measure of cumulative statistical reorganisation and spatial decorrelation. In particular, at low density we observe weaker coupling between $\tilde{n}$ and $\tilde{T}$, along with a tendency toward decreased radial correlation-most clearly for $\tilde{T}$-under ERMPs. Overall, information geometry cleanly captures intermittent events, quantifies non-equilibrium PDF evolution, and offers a compact, cross-diagnostic metric for assessing resonant magnetic perturbation effects on edge transport and correlation across densities, radial locations, and confinement states.

Kim, Eun-jin [Coventry Univ. (United Kingdom); Seo↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian inference of nuclear-matter density from proton scattering

Background: Proton elastic scattering at intermediate energy is widely employed as a tool for determining the matter radius of atomic nuclei. Here, the sensitivity of the approach relies on high-resolution measurements at small scattering angles and low-momentum transfer. Under these conditions, the Glauber multiple scattering theory accurately describes the proton-nucleus elastic cross section. Purpose: Investigate the sensitivity of the Glauber multiple scattering theory to uncertainties associated with input parameters such as the nuclear-matter density distribution and nucleon-nucleon data. Method: A joint Bayesian inference was performed using 12 angular distributions of elastic scattering at different energies on 58 Ni, 90 Zr, and 208 Pb targets. A Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was implemented to make an uncertainty quantification analysis for the input parameters used in the Glauber multiple scattering theory. Results: The experimental cross sections were fitted simultaneously using a joint Bayesian inference approach. Posterior probability density distributions of 42 input parameters were obtained from the analysis. A moderate correlation between the nuclear density parameters and the nucleon-nucleon cross sections was found. This correlation impacts the extraction of the nuclear-matter radius. Conclusions: The present analysis provided a consistent method for extracting the nuclear-matter density distribution of 58 Ni, 90 Zr, and 208 Pb from data across different incident energies. Due to the correlation of the nucleon-nucleon cross sections with the other input parameters, a constrained Bayesian inference using free nucleon-nucleon cross section data was performed. The nuclear-matter radii obtained from the analysis are in good agreement with multiple results reported in the literature.

190 ≤ A ≤ 219↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving generative model-based unfolding with Schrödinger bridges

Machine learning-based unfolding has enabled unbinned and high-dimensional differential cross section measurements. Two main approaches have emerged in this research area; one based on discriminative models and one based on generative models. The main advantage of discriminative models is that they learn a small correction to a starting simulation while generative models scale better to regions of phase space with little data. We propose to use Schrödinger bridges and diffusion models to create , an unfolding approach that combines the strengths of both discriminative and generative models. The key feature of is that its generative model maps one set of events into another without having to go through a known probability density as is the case for normalizing flows and standard diffusion models. We show that achieves excellent performance compared to state of the art methods on a synthetic Z + jets dataset. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Continuum radiated power density $(P^{\textrm{C}}_{\textrm{rad}})$ and effective charge $(Z_{\textrm{eff}})$ estimates from multi-energy photon-counting measurements

Multi-energy soft x-ray pinhole cameras have been designed, built, calibrated, and operated at Madison symmetric Torus, Alcator C-Mod, and more recently at Tokamak a configuration variable and Tungsten Environment in Steady-State Tokamak (WEST), to measure plasma emission across multiple energy ranges. Here we describe a new methodology to estimate the local continuum radiated power density and the plasma effective charge (Z eff ) directly from photon-counting measurements of the line-free continuum emission (Bremsstrahlung and Radiative Recombination) in several energy bands between 11 and 18 keV. This capability is particularly valuable for confinement systems using metal plasma-facing components, where x-ray losses from interactions with the sputtered wall can represent a significant fraction of the total radiated power (P rad ). The approach leverages a well-characterized detector responsivity, modeled by a complementary error function, and interprets the differential multi-energy measurements between adjacent energy levels through the probability density function of a Gaussian distribution. The implementation of this diagnostic technique is currently under development on the WEST tokamak, aiming at the goal of providing real-time P rad and Z eff measurements during long-pulse operation (up to 1000 s) in the 2026 campaign.

WEST↗

DOE OSTI2025

Conditional Pseudo-Reversible Normalizing Flow for Surrogate Modeling in Quantifying Uncertainty Propagation

We introduce a conditional pseudo-reversible normalizing flow (PR-NF) that directly learns conditional probability distributions from noisy physical models to efficiently quantify both forward and inverse uncertainty propagation. Traditional surrogate modeling approaches approximate only the deterministic component of physical models, requiring separate noise characterization and computationally expensive sampling methods for inverse problems. Here, in this work, we develop the conditional PR-NF model to directly learn and efficiently generate samples from the conditional probability density functions (PDFs). The training process utilizes dataset consisting of input-output pairs without requiring prior knowledge about the noise and the function. Once trained, our model efficiently generates samples from conditional PDFs for any input within the training domain. Moreover, the pseudo-reversibility feature allows for the use of fully connected neural network architectures, which simplifies the implementation and enables theoretical analysis. We provide a rigorous convergence analysis of the conditional PR-NF model, showing its ability to converge to the target conditional PDF using the Kullback−Leibler divergence. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we apply it to several benchmark tests and a real-world geologic carbon storage problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Statistical evaluation of microscale stress conditions leading to void nucleation in the weak shock regime

Here, we investigate the heterogeneity of the stress state driven by anisotropic deformation response at the single crystal level through five statistical volume element (SVE) calculations of polycrystalline BCC tantalum. This work focuses on grain boundaries as a prominent material defect type prone to void nucleation based upon experimental observations of predominantly intergranular void nucleation in this material. The SVEs are constructed to be statistically representative of larger volumes of material and are meshed such that mean and standard deviation of grain size and orientation information is reconstructed. The computational meshes feature hexahedral (brick) elements and smooth conformal grain boundaries where significant stress concentration is known to occur, a tail effect of interest in the extreme events process of dynamic ductile damage. An existing micromechanical crystallographic plasticity model shown to capture the single crystal behavior of BCC tantalum well is used to perform the polycrystal calculations. The model includes representation of the non-Schmid effect of non-planar screw dislocation kinetics in tantalum. A three-dimensional stress state time profile predicted by damage modeling of a flyer plate impact experiment is applied as boundary conditions to each SVE. Resulting grain boundary stress state statistics are strongly non-Gaussian. Significant structural evolution is observed within the compressive hold before unloading into tension in the stress profile. Strong angular dependence of grain boundary traction magnitude with shock direction is observed. Non-Schmid effects continue to suggest their influence on propensity of microstructural defect types to nucleate voids. A general void nucleation criterion is proposed using probability theory. The general framework is specified to polycrystalline BCC tantalum in the weak shock regime to include the SVE calculations and literature molecular dynamics calculations of grain boundary void nucleation strength. Probability density functions (PDFs) are used to describe the interaction between the local stress state heterogeneity and the distributed grain boundary void nucleation strength state. A causation entropy maximization procedure removes the requirement for ad hoc selection of a PDF functional form and provides a rigorous procedure for data-based PDF determination. The resulting physically informed PDF describes the spatial appearance frequency of nucleated voids as a function of applied macroscale pressure. Lower length scale physics are thus packaged in a precise and computationally efficient way to provide computational plasticity insight to macroscale dynamic ductile damage models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Observable optimization for precision theory: machine learning energy correlators

The practice of collider physics typically involves the marginalization of multi-dimensional collider data to uni-dimensional observables relevant for some physics task. In many cases, such as classification or anomaly detection, the observable can be arbitrarily complicated, such as the output of a neural network. However, for precision measurements, the observable must correspond to something computable systematically beyond the level of current simulation tools. In this work, we demonstrate that precision-theory-compatible observable space exploration can be systematized by using neural simulation-based inference techniques from machine learning. We illustrate this approach by exploring the space of marginalizations of the energy 3-point correlator to optimize sensitivity to the top quark mass. We first learn the energy-weighted probability density from simulation, then search in the space of marginalizations for an optimal triangle shape. Although simulations and machine learning are used in the process of observable optimization, the output is an observable definition which can be then computed to high precision and compared directly to data without any memory of the computations which produced it. We find that the optimal marginalization is isosceles triangles on the sphere with a side ratio approximately $1 : 1 : \sqrt{2}$ (i.e. right triangles) within the set of marginalizations we consider.

Jets and Jet Substructure↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating template generation in resonant anomaly detection searches with optimal transport

We introduce Resonant Anomaly Detection with Optimal Transport (RAD-OT), a method for generating signal templates in resonant anomaly detection searches. RAD-OT leverages the fact that the samples from the conditional probability density of the target features vary approximately linearly along the optimal transport path connecting the resonant feature. This does not assume that the conditional density itself is linear with the resonant feature, allowing RAD-OT to efficiently capture multimodal relationships, changes in resolution, etc. By solving the optimal transport problem, RAD-OT can quickly build a template by interpolating between the background distributions in two sideband regions. We demonstrate the performance of RAD-OT using the LHC Olympics R&D dataset, where we find comparable sensitivity and improved stability with respect to deep learning-based approaches.

Automation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Numerical analysis of a time discretized method for nonlinear filtering problem with Lévy process observations

Abstract In this paper, we consider a nonlinear filtering model with observations driven by correlated Wiener processes and point processes. We first derive a Zakai equation whose solution is an unnormalized probability density function of the filter solution. Then, we apply a splitting-up technique to decompose the Zakai equation into three stochastic differential equations, based on which we construct a splitting-up approximate solution and prove its half-order convergence. Furthermore, we apply a finite difference method to construct a time semi-discrete approximate solution to the splitting-up system and prove its half-order convergence to the exact solution of the Zakai equation. Finally, we present some numerical experiments to demonstrate the theoretical analysis.

Mathematics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physics-coupled data-driven design of high-temperature alloys

We present a materials design loop, which streamlines physics-coupled machine learning (ML) surrogate models to discover new alloy chemistries with improved properties. The efficacy is demonstrated by discovering a high-temperature alumina-forming austenitic (AFA) stainless steel with enhanced creep, followed by experimental validation. The ML models have been trained using a well-curated, highly consistent experimental dataset augmented with synthetic microstructural features from a computational thermodynamic approach. We have populated a large number of hypothetical AFA alloys to explore the high-dimensional composition space and have predicted their creep properties by providing the same synthetic input features obtained from the trained ML models. Uncertainties from the ML training were taken as thresholds for truncating predicted results to identify alloys with improved or deteriorated creep. Individual elemental compositions have been determined via probability density distribution analysis from the group of alloys at the top and bottom of the predicted creep values for further virtual and experimental validations. In conclusion, we anticipate that this workflow can be applied to screen desired conditions, such as chemistry and processing parameters, in high-dimensional space through physics-guided data analytics.

Alloy design↗

DOE OSTI2024

PYSIMFRAC: A Python library for synthetic fracture generation and analysis

In this paper, we introduce PYSIMFRAC, an open-source python library for generating 3-D synthetic fracture realizations, integrating with fluid simulators, and performing analysis. PYSIMFRAC allows the user to specify one of three fracture generation techniques (Box, Gaussian, or Spectral) and perform statistical analysis including the autocorrelation, moments, and probability density functions of the fracture surfaces and aperture. This analysis and accessibility of a python library allows the user to create realistic fracture realizations and vary properties of interest. In addition, PYSIMFRAC includes integration examples to two different pore-scale simulators and the discrete fracture network simulator, dfnWorks. The capabilities developed in this work provides opportunity for quick and smooth adoption and implementation by the wider scientific community for accurate characterization of fluid transport in geologic media. We present PYSIMFRAC along with integration examples and discuss the ability to extend PYSIMFRAC from a single complex fracture to complex fracture networks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ensemble Monte Carlo calculations with five novel moves

We introduce five novel types of Monte Carlo (MC) moves that brings the number of moves of ensemble MC calculations from three to eight. So far such calculations have relied on affine invariant stretch moves that were originally introduced by Christen (2007), walk moves by Goodman and Weare (2010) and quadratic moves by Militzer (2023). Ensemble MC methods have been very popular because they harness information about the fitness landscape from a population of walkers rather than relying on expert knowledge. Here we modified the affine method and employed a simplex of points to set the stretch direction. We adopt the simplex concept to quadratic moves. We also generalize quadratic moves to arbitrary order. Finally, we introduce directed moves that employ the values of the probability density while all other types of moves rely solely on the location of the walkers. We apply all algorithms to the Rosenbrock density in 2 and 20 dimensions and to the ring potential in 12 and 24 dimensions. We evaluate their efficiency by comparing error bars, autocorrelation time, travel time, and the level of cohesion that measures whether any walkers were left behind. Our code is open source.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗