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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Ensemble Predictions of South Asian Monsoon Low Pressure System Genesis

Abstract Synoptic-scale vortices known as monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) frequently produce intense precipitation and hydrological disasters in South Asia, so accurately forecasting LPS genesis is crucial for improving disaster preparedness and response. However, the accuracy of LPS genesis forecasts by numerical weather prediction models has remained unknown. Here, we evaluate the performance of two global ensemble models—the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Ensemble Prediction System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)—in predicting LPS genesis during the years 2021–22. The GEFS successfully predicted about half the observed LPS genesis events 1–2 days in advance; the ECMWF model captured an additional 10% of observed genesis events. Both models had a false alarm ratio (FAR) of around 50% for 1–2-day lead times. In both ensembles, the control run typically exhibited a higher probability of detection (POD) of observed events and a lower FAR compared to the perturbed ensemble members. However, a consensus forecast, in which genesis is predicted when at least 20% of ensemble members forecast LPS formation, had POD values surpassing those of the control run for all lead times. Moreover, probabilistic predictions of genesis over the Bay of Bengal, where most LPSs form, were skillful, with the fraction of ensemble members predicting LPS formation over a 5-day lead time approximating the observed frequency of genesis, without any adjustment or bias correction.

Suhas, D. L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the Value of Seismic Amplitude Versus Offset (AVO) Attributes for CO2 Storage Project Using a Bayesian Network Model for Decision Support

Attributes versus offset (AVO) are a set of measurements to analyze how the characteristics of reflected seismic waves change as a function of the offset. It can be useful for monitoring CO2 storage sites because the presence of leaked CO2 into the overlying aquifer can change the properties of the rocks and pore fluids composition that can alter the way seismic waves reflect and their amplitudes. The time-lapse changes in AVO attributes derived from repeat seismic surveys can help identify anomalies or shifts in the subsurface that could potentially be used as an indicator for CO2 leak detection. Our study leverages multiple seismic attributes derived from synthetic seismic data and Bayesian network model to quantify the probability of leak detection in the overlying aquifer above the storage reservoir. It helps to quantify the value of individual seismic attributes at multiple monitoring periods based upon their sensitivities.

Kumar, Abhash↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sharp detection of low-dimensional structure in probability measures via dimensional logarithmic Sobolev inequalities

Identifying low-dimensional structure in high-dimensional probability measures is an essential pre-processing step for efficient sampling. To identify this structure, we approximate the target measure as a perturbation of an arbitrary reference measure along a few directions in $\mathbb{R}^{d}$. These directions are determined by minimizing an upper bound on the Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence between the target and its approximation. Our contribution improves upon previous works by leveraging dimensional logarithmic Sobolev inequalities to refine the bound on the KL divergence. These inequalities lead to a uniformly tighter bound on the KL divergence, thereby enhancing the identification of the most significant perturbation directions. In particular, when the target and reference are both Gaussian, minimizing the resulting bound is equivalent to minimizing the KL divergence. We further demonstrate the applicability of this analysis to the squared Hellinger distance, where analogous reasoning shows that the dimensional Poincaré inequality offers improved bounds.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2026

Accelerated 133 Xe Quantification in Samples Containing Significant 133 mXe

The quantification of 133 Xe in the presence of its mother radionuclide 133 mXe requires the full quantification of both to perform the ingrowth correction for 133 Xe. Due to the nature of both of these radionuclides, the 133 mXe requires significantly more time to quantify by High Purity Germanium (HPGe) detectors due to lower production yields, lower gamma emission probabilities, and lower detection efficiencies. This work shows that 133 Xe and 133 mXe quantification can be accelerated by measuring the 133m:133 activity ratio for a large batch of material and applying this activity ratio to assays of lower activity subsamples of the same batch of material. Included in this report are derivations of the required decay correction equations, and experiments using actual samples to validate the performance of these equations. A detector calibration method is also shown that leverages this method as an alternative to existing calibration methods for 133 mXe quantification.

133mXe↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum computer-enabled receivers for optical communication

Abstract Optical communication is the standard for high-bandwidth information transfer in today’s digital age. The increasing demand for bandwidth has led to the maturation of coherent transceivers that use phase- and amplitude-modulated optical signals to encode more bits of information per transmitted pulse. Such encoding schemes achieve higher information density, but also require more complicated receivers to discriminate the signaling states. In fact, achieving the ultimate limit of optical communication capacity, especially in the low light regime, requires coherent joint detection of multiple pulses. Despite their superiority, such joint detection receivers are not in widespread use because of the difficulty of constructing them in the optical domain. In this work we describe how optomechanical transduction of phase information from coherent optical pulses to superconducting qubit states followed by the execution of trained short-depth variational quantum circuits can perform joint detection of communication codewords with error probabilities that surpass all classical, individual pulse detection receivers. Importantly, we utilize a model of optomechanical transduction that captures non-idealities such as thermal noise and loss in order to understand the transduction performance necessary to achieve a quantum advantage with such a scheme. We also execute the trained variational circuits on an IBM-Q device with the modeled transduced states as input to demonstrate that a quantum advantage is possible even with current levels of quantum computing hardware noise.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

OSCAR-Mike: Why not ATAK?

The Office of Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence (NSDD) is evaluating methods to increase the probability that international partners will detect radioactive materials. One proposed method to accomplish this goal is to improve communications within teams operating in challenging environments. The goal of these improvements would be to enable remote monitoring of detection equipment, share data among end users in the field and subject matter experts, and integrate data from radiation detectors with other types of sensors and camera systems. Accomplishing this goal has the potential to improve the capabilities of currently deployed NSDD equipment. During FY 2021, Oak Ridge National Laboratory demonstrated some core and expanded capabilities of the Android Team Awareness Kit (ATAK), a situational awareness application developed by the US Department of Defense, to enable precision targeting, navigation, and data sharing. During FY 2022, Oak Ridge National Laboratory developed software requirements for an NSDD team awareness kit–based system. The requirements were developed by liaising with NSDD management and subject matter experts to determine NSDD’s needs and by reviewing available software and hardware solutions with US Department of Defense team awareness kit program managers and developers and radiation detection equipment vendors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimation of the Chances to Find New Phenomena at the LHC in a Model-Agnostic Combinatorial Analysis

In this paper, we estimate the number of event topologies that have the potential to be produced in 𝑝𝑝 collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) without violating kinematic and other constraints. We use numerical calculations and combinatorics, guided by large-scale Monte Carlo simulations of Standard Model (SM) processes. Then, we set the upper limit on the probability that new physics may escape detection, assuming a model-agnostic approach. The calculated probability is unexpectedly large, and the fact that LHC has not found new physics until now is not entirely surprising. Theoretical limitations and experimental challenges in observing new physics within the studied exclusive event classes are examined.

BSM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Entanglement-Enhanced Neyman-Pearson Target Detection

Quantum illumination (QI) provides entanglement-enabled target-detection enhancement, despite operating in an entanglement-breaking environment. Existing experimental studies of QI have utilized a Bayesian approach, assuming that the target is equally likely to be present or absent before detection, to demonstrate an advantage over classical target detection. However, such a premise breaks down in practical operational scenarios in which the prior probability is unknown, thereby hindering QI's applicability to real-world target-detection scenarios. In this work, we adopt the Neyman-Pearson criterion in lieu of the error probability for equally likely target absence or presence as our figure of merit for QI. We demonstrate an unconditional quantum advantage over the optimal classical-illumination protocol as benchmarked by the receiver operating characteristic, which examines detection probability versus false-alarm probability without resorting to known prior probabilities. Our work represents a critical advancement in adapting quantum-enhanced sensing to practical operational settings.

Ward, William↗
DOE OSTI2026

A call to standardize metrics for monitoring baleen whales near marine construction activities

Effective monitoring is necessary to protect marine mammal species during the construction of offshore infrastructure. The tools for detecting or monitoring marine mammals span traditional (e.g., visual observers, optical cameras), to newer (e.g., passive acoustic monitoring, infrared cameras, tags), and emerging (e.g., satellite imagery, environmental DNA, dimethyl sulfide concentration) technologies. Some are better suited for use during offshore development; however, peer-reviewed literature does not typically evaluate and report on the performance of these various technologies. We define a minimum set of metrics related to efficacy (i.e., confusion matrix, precision and recall, probability of missed mitigation), detection range (i.e., maximum and reliable detection range, spatial resolution), and data delivery (i.e., detection latency, system reliability, temporal resolution) that we recommend are needed to assess the utility of monitoring technologies for this purpose. Following a literature review of relevant studies, we highlight which publications reported these metrics and used multiple technologies to compare relative performance. We also emphasize the benefits of multi-modal approaches and recommend performance assessments through modeling or large-scale collaborative field testing. These metrics will standardize data collection, reporting, and analysis; promote consistent and comparable results; and foster collaboration among developers, regulatory agencies, and scientists. This may lead to the co-development of technology that achieves multiple goals, has greater application, and can answer research questions while collecting data to fulfill permitting requirements. These metrics may also inform decisions on what systems regulatory agencies might consider using and reduce monitoring costs, which is critical to support the marine sector's rapid growth alongside marine mammal conservation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Advantages of Combining Morphological and Molecular Methods to Characterise Zooplankton Communities: A Case Study of the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve of the Berlengas Archipelago, Portugal

Understanding the ecological dynamics of zooplankton communities is crucial to precisely assessing the health of marine ecosystems and their management. Metabarcoding has contributed to a better understanding of biodiversity in marine environments. However, this methodology still requires protocol optimisation. Here, we used a complementary approach combining molecular and morphological identification methods to identify the zooplankton community inhabiting the Berlengas Archipelago, Portugal. The presence of non-indigenous species was also assessed. The results showed that the metabarcoding approach outperformed the classical morphological identification method, detecting more species with higher resolution. Nevertheless, the classical method was able to identify species that were not detected by the molecular approaches, probably due to a lack of reference data in the databases. The comparison between different molecular approaches showed that COI and bulk DNA gave better results than 18S rRNA and eDNA by detecting higher species diversity. However, complementarities were observed between them. Molecular tools also proved effective in identifying several potential non-indigenous species, identifying, for the first time, several potentially unreported NIS inhabiting the Portuguese marine ecosystems. Overall, our results confirmed the importance of combining both classical and molecular methods to obtain a more refined assessment of the zooplanktonic communities in marine environments.

Simões, Marco (ORCID:0000000179957304)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Application of Indirect Quantification of 133mXe to Calibration of HPGe Detector

The INL Noble Gas Laboratory provides intercomparison samples for the noble gas analysis laboratories as part of the CTBTO PrepCom IMS. Xe-133m is one of the four relevant radionuclides in nuclear explosion monitoring. Without commercially available Xe-133m calibration standards laboratories must create and improve calibration methods. Improvements in calibration methods at the INL NGL benefit the CTBTO PrepCom through better certified values for Xe-133m intercomparison samples. Calibration of High Purity Germanium detectors for Xe-133m quantification is complicated by the coexistence of Xe-133 in samples under analysis. Xe-133 is typically produced in larger quantities, has higher gamma emission probabilities, and its gammas are detected more efficiently than Xe-133m. Xe-133m activity of samples can be indirectly inferred through the 133:133m activity ratio of a batch of material, and the Xe-133 counts in the assay of a small aliquot of the same material. This indirect quantification method can be leveraged to perform detector calibrations for quantification of Xe-133m. Calibrations can be performed by inferring the Xe-133m to certify the sample, and direct counting to determine detector efficiency. A comparison of method results will be shown.

133mXe↗
DOE OSTI2025

eDNAjoint: An R package for interpreting paired or semi‐paired environmental DNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework

Abstract Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is increasingly used in surveys of species distribution as a potentially sensitive and efficient monitoring method. Yet access to modelling tools designed specifically for interpreting this new data type lags behind its ubiquity. While occupancy modelling software has dominated the analytical landscape for eDNA data analysis of single species, this type of model may not always be the most appropriate. The rate of eDNA detection often corresponds to species density, rather than just occupancy, and researchers often have access to observations from non‐genetic sampling methods at the same sites. To provide users access to a modelling framework designed to maximize the use of all available data, we developed an R package, eDNAjoint . The package provides an easy‐to‐use interface for fitting a ‘joint’ model that integrates data from paired or semi‐paired eDNA and traditional surveys in a Bayesian framework. The model can be used to estimate parameters like the probability of a false positive eDNA detection and mean catch rate at a site, and the package allows access to multiple model variations and Bayesian prior customization. Additional functionality can be used for model selection, summarising posteriors and comparing the relative sensitivities of the two survey methods. We demonstrate the use of eDNAjoint by fitting a variation of the model with site‐level covariates that scale the sensitivity of eDNA sampling relative to traditional sampling. The example workflow uses binary eDNA and seine count data for the endangered tidewater goby ( Eucyclogobius newberryi ) from a study by Schmelzle and Kinziger (2016). This use case includes a prior sensitivity analysis and an evaluation of the relationship between detection rates and environmental variables. eDNAjoint has the potential to greatly increase the range of users who will be able to rigorously analyse eDNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework, understand if and how eDNA can improve monitoring practices, and gain confidence in the interpretability of eDNA data.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗
DOE OSTI2026

Longitudinal spin transfer to Λ hyperons in semi-inclusive deep inelastic scattering with the CLAS12 spectrometer

The polarization of Λ hyperons is preserved in the angular distribution of their decay products. This property allows one to study the spin structure of the Λ. In semi-inclusive deep inelastic scattering where a high energy lepton interacts with a nucleon target and one or more hadrons and the scattered lepton are detected in the final state, the probability for a struck quark to impart the polarization of the lepton to the Λ may be measured. In particular, in electron-proton scattering this quantity may be related to the longitudinal light quark polarization of the Λ. Currently, limited experimental data cannot discriminate between different models of Λ spin structure. This work reports on the measurement of the longitudinal spin transfer 𝐷$^{Λ}_{𝐿⁢𝐿′}$ to the Λ using data taken by the CLAS12 spectrometer at Jefferson Lab with a 10.6 GeV longitudinally polarized electron beam and an unpolarized hydrogen target. This measurement is the most precise to date, and, in comparison with theory predictions, it offers valuable insight into the relative dominance of current and target fragmentation in Λ production.

deep inelastic scattering↗
DOE OSTI2024

W -boson exotic decay into three charged leptons at the LHC

We investigate the W boson’s exotic decay channel, W → ℓ ℓ ℓ ν , at the LHC. Although the four-body final states suppress the decay branching ratio, the large production of W bosons makes detecting and precisely measuring this decay probability entirely feasible. Our simulation study indicates that this tiny branching ratio can be measured with subpercent precision at the HL-LHC. This decay channel can also constrain Standard Model extensions. Using the L μ − L τ model as a benchmark, we find that the current bound on the gauge coupling for Z ′ mass in the range of [4, 75] GeV can significantly improve. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Fei, Yifan (ORCID:0009000988504767)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predictions for the Detectability of Milky Way Satellite Galaxies and Outer-Halo Star Clusters with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory

We predict the sensitivity of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) to faint, resolved Milky Way satellite galaxies and outer-halo star clusters. We characterize the expected sensitivity using simulated LSST data from the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) Data Challenge 2 (DC2) accessed and analyzed with the Rubin Science Platform as part of the Rubin Early Science Program. We simulate resolved stellar populations of Milky Way satellite galaxies and outer-halo star clusters over a wide range of sizes, luminosities, and heliocentric distances, which are broadly consistent with expectations for the Milky Way satellite system. We inject simulated stars into the DC2 catalog with realistic photometric uncertainties and star/galaxy separation derived from the DC2 data itself. We assess the probability that each simulated system would be detected by LSST using a conventional isochrone matched-filter technique. We find that assuming perfect star/galaxy separation enables the detection of resolved stellar systems with $M_V$ = 0 mag and $r_{1/2}$ = 10 pc with >50% efficiency out to a heliocentric distance of ~250 kpc. Similar detection efficiency is possible with a simple star/galaxy separation criterion based on measured quantities, although the false positive rate is higher due to leakage of background galaxies into the stellar sample. When assuming perfect star/galaxy classification and a model for the galaxy-halo connection fit to current data, we predict that 89 +/- 20 Milky Way satellite galaxies will be detectable with a simple matched-filter algorithm applied to the LSST wide-fast-deep data set. Different assumptions about the performance of star/galaxy classification efficiency can decrease this estimate by ~7%-25%, which emphasizes the importance of high-quality star/galaxy separation for studies of the Milky Way satellite population with LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

py-boomer v0.1.0

Py-BOOMER (Python Bayesian OWL Ontology MErgER in Python) is a probabilistic reasoning system for knowledge representation and ontological reasoning with uncertainty. Itnables reasoning over probabilistic facts and taxonomic relationships, finding the most likely consistent interpretation of potentially conflicting assertions. It uses a combination of graph-based reasoning and Bayesian probabilistic inference. Key features: Represent probabilistic ontological statements Reason over class subsumption hierarchies Evaluate class equivalence relationships Detect and resolve logical inconsistencies Calculate posterior probabilities for each assertion

Mungall, Chris [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2025

First simultaneous measurement of the γ-ray and neutron emission probabilities in inverse kinematics at a heavy-ion storage ring

The probabilities for γ-ray and particle emission as a function of the excitation energy of a decaying nucleus are valuable observables for constraining the ingredients of the models that describe the deexcitation of nuclei near the particle emission threshold. These models are essential in nuclear astrophysics and applications. In this paper, we have for the first time simultaneously measured the γ-ray and neutron emission probabilities of 208 Pb. The measurement was performed in inverse kinematics at the Experimental Storage Ring (ESR) of the GSI/FAIR facility, where a 208 Pb beam interacted through the 208 Pb (p,p') reaction with a hydrogen gas jet target. Instead of detecting the γ rays and neutrons emitted by 208 Pb, we detected the heavy beamlike residues produced after γ and neutron emission. These heavy residues were fully separated by a dipole magnet of the ESR and were detected with outstanding efficiencies. The comparison of the measured probabilities with model calculations has allowed us to test and select different descriptions of the γ-ray strength function and the nuclear level density available in the literature.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Delving into the depths of NGC 3783 with XRISM

The 2024 X-ray/UV observation campaign of NGC 3783, led by XRISM, revealed the launch of an ultrafast outflow (UFO) with a radial velocity of 0.19c (57 000 km s −1 ). This event is synchronized with the sharp decay, within less than half a day, of a prominent soft X-ray/UV flare. Accounting for the look-elsewhere effect, the XRISM Resolve data alone indicate a low probability of 2 × 10 −5 that this UFO detection is due to random chance. The UFO features narrow H-like and He-like Fe lines with a velocity dispersion of ∼1000 km s −1 , suggesting that it originates from a dense clump. Beyond this primary detection, there are hints of weaker outflow signatures throughout the rise and fall phases of the soft flare. Their velocities increase from 0.05c to 0.3c over approximately three days, and they may be associated with a larger stream in which the clump is embedded. The radiation pressure is insufficient to drive the acceleration of this rapidly evolving outflow. The observed evolution of the outflow kinematics instead closely resembles that of solar coronal mass ejections, implying magnetic driving and, conceivably, reconnection near the accretion disk as the likely mechanisms behind both the UFO launch and the associated soft flare.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗