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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Loss of Coolant High Burnup (LOC-HBu) Program

LOC-HBu is a joint experimental program (JEEP) operating within the Nuclear Energy Agency’s (NEA’s) framework for irradiation experiments II (FIDES-II). LOC-HBu is dedicated to the understanding of light water reactor (LWR) fuel performance at high burnup under loss of coolant accident (LOCA) conditions. LOC-HBu aims to support burnup extension needs by addressing identified R&D priorities to achieve an improved understanding of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) of HBu fuel during LOCA events. The need for such experiments was identified in the United States by the Fuel Performance Testing Technical Expert Group (FPTTEG) under the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)’s Collaborative Research on Advanced Fuel Technologies (CRAFT) framework. A combined in-pile and furnace testing program plan was developed by researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) which was reviewed and approved by the FPTTEG Combined TREAT-LOC and SATS LOCA Experiment Plan. The first 4 tests identified in this plan are being put forward by the U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. DOE) and INL for inclusion in the FIDES-II second triannual work period. The data produced under this plan will be used to further validate and confirm existing models and inform future R&D and model development. The experimental program was specifically developed to address data gaps and opportunities identified via detailed review of the existing public knowledge base on LOCA FFRD, as well as reviewing specific experimental development activities regarding prototypic LOCA conditions for light-water reactor (LWR) systems. The program will systematically investigate the impacts of prototypic HBu fuel/cladding thermomechanical behaviors under postulated LWR LOCA conditions not yet fully investigated. These conditions correspond with prototypic decay-energy heatup (DEH) and stored-energy heatup (SEH) conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimization Models For Drone Deployment

Model that supports drone deployment. Analysis on speed, package weight, energy consumption, # of drones, and battery replacements. This software developed tools for drone deployment optimization for direct delivery by introducing a new model that presents new insights addressing real-life issues. Specifically, this developed a new mixed-integer programming model with both time windows and battery replacements.

Roni, MohammadS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recent Code Developments/Improvements to SAM Multi-dimensional Flow Model

The System Analysis Module (SAM) is under development at Argonne National Laboratory as a modern system-level modeling and simulation tool for advanced non-light water reactor safety analyses. In addition to its conventional one-dimensional flow network module, the multi-dimensional flow model of SAM offers significant benefits to its end-users, including the U.S. NRC, who uses it to develop reference models for advanced reactor concepts. This report provides a summary of the recent progress achieved under DOE-NE’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program in the continuous code development and improvements of the SAM code, specifically its multi-dimensional flow model. The improvements include enhancements to the physical model, code usability, addressing user feedback, and compliance with the SQA program standards that aim to enhance and maintain the quality of the software.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Combined TREAT-LOC and SATS LOCA Experiment Plan: Integral LOCA Experiments on High-Burnup Fuels

The Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) loss-of-coolant (LOC) and high-burnup (HBu) experiment series, along with the Severe Accident Test Station (SATS) HBu experiment series, are integral LOC accident (LOCA) experiments planned under the DOE AFC program, which aim to support burnup extension needs by addressing identified R&D priorities in order to achieve an improved understanding of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) of HBu fuel during LOCA events. The data produced under this plan will be used to further validate and confirm existing models and inform future R&D and model development. The experimental program has been specifically designed to address knowledge gaps and opportunities identified through a detailed review of existing public knowledge on LOCA FFRD. The test program employs a unique combination of in- and out-of-pile experimental approaches and state-of-the-art facilities to provide a clear connection to the existing integral and semi-integral LOCA experiment database. The primary goal of the program is to investigate the impact of prototypic HBu fuel/cladding thermomechanical behaviors under postulated LWR LOCA conditions that have not yet been fully studied. These conditions correspond with prototypic decay-energy heatup (DEH) and stored-energy heatup (SEH) conditions. Importantly, TREAT’s unique capability will enable the first evaluation of the impact of SEH conditions on HBu fuels. The test program will emphasize the development of an improved mechanistic understanding of key experimental phenomena through independent experimental systems, development of a database to support fuel performance modeling tools and employing world-leading advanced materials characterization and in-situ diagnostics to evaluate FFRD. The results of the program will provide novel data to support modeling development and validation and will represent a significant advancement in evaluating prototypic conditions, as well as to inform the technical basis for LOCA-induced FFRD.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Source Term Reduction for Advanced and Small Modular Boiling Water Reactors

The United States Department of Energy (US DOE) is currently supporting the development of various advanced and small modular reactor (SMR) designs. Several of these designs have commenced license application with the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US NRC). These reactors have improved safety features that may significantly reduce radiological source terms in the event of design and beyond-design basis accidents. Specifically, some reactors feature a smaller containment volume relative to the available fission product depositional surface area, which supports increased fission product retention in the containment vessel. Pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) with this feature include the integral pressurized water reactor (iPWR) and the BWRX-300 design by General Electric. A prior research program supported by the US DOE quantified the source term reduction associated with light water iPWRs and developed iPWR-specific theoretical models for fission product deposition rates. This program included a sequence of research projects that started with a feasibility study, development of theoretical models that predict higher deposition rates, and finally, development of empirical data for verification and validation of the theoretical models. The current project, which is a feasibility study, is the first step in a similar program to quantify the source term reduction associated with small and advanced light water BWRs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimizing green infrastructure placement under precipitation uncertainty

Increased urbanization, infrastructure degradation, and climate change threaten to overwhelm stormwater systems across the nation, rendering them ineffective. Green Infrastructure (GI) practices are low cost, low regret strategies that can contribute to urban runoff management. However, questions remain as to how to best distribute GI practices through urban watersheds given precipitation uncertainty and the variable hydrological responses to them. We develop stochastic programming models to determine the optimal placement of GI practices across a set of candidate locations in a watershed to minimize the total expected runoff under medium-term precipitation uncertainties. Specifically, we first develop a two-stage stochastic programming model. Next, we reformulate this model using perturbed parameters to reduce the requisite computational time and extend it to multi-stage. In addition, we introduce constraints that allow for incorporating sub-catchment-level runoff reduction considerations. Furthermore, we account for hydrological connectivity in the watershed using an underlying acyclic connectivity graph of sub-catchments and incorporate various practical considerations into the models. In addition, we develop a systemic approach to downscale the existing daily precipitation projections into hourly units and efficiently estimate the corresponding hydrological responses. These advancements are brought together in a case study for an urban watershed in a mid-sized city in the U.S., where we perform sensitivity analyses, evaluate the importance of the considered constraints, and provide insights.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Contaminant Migration Modeling to Support the In Situ Decommissioning of Hardened Nuclear Facilities - 20215

The decommissioning of hardened nuclear facilities provides a unique challenge in balancing current worker dose with exposure to future receptors and media. In situ decommissioning (ISD) is a cost-effective and safe option for the closure of such facilities but requires a detailed understanding of the threat that radioactive and hazardous constituents remaining in the facilities pose to groundwater and surrounding surface water. The Savannah River Site (SRS) extensively employs contaminant migration models within the decommissioning process to develop site-specific removal, grouting, and monitoring strategies in support of safe and effective final end states of nuclear facilities. This work discusses the use of contaminant migration modeling in the ISD process at SRS, including specific examples from the closure of P-Reactor and R-Reactor, Building 235-F, F-Canyon and F/H Laboratory Complex. Migration models developed during the closure of P-Reactor and R-Reactor were divided into four source areas: the reactor vessel, the process area, the disassembly basin, and the purification wing. Each source area was assigned a specific inventory and migration pathway and was then subject to varying hypothetical removal, capping, and grouting schemes. Modeling indicated that groundwater Maximum Concentration Limits (MCLs) might be exceeded if no action was taken for eleven and ten constituents of concern (COCs) at P-Reactor and R-Reactor, respectively. These exceedances could occur in as few as 200 to 500 years. Alternatively, the migration modeling demonstrated that the selected ISD actions reduced contaminant mobility which allowed for significant radioactive decay and resulted in fewer predicted exceedances of groundwater MCLs (five COCs for P-Reactor; eight COCs for R-Reactor). In response to the modeling results for P-Reactor and R-Reactor, effectiveness monitoring programs were developed to target contaminants, specific to each reactor, that may migrate to groundwater. Contaminant migration modeling also revealed that roof collapse was a large factor in the release of COCs to the environment, giving rise to roof improvements, and an inspection and vegetation control program to ensure roof stability over time. Contaminant migration modeling is also aiding in the closure planning for hardened facilities in F Area. Building 235-F housed the Actinide Billet Line, which produced Np-237 billets for irradiation in SRS reactors, and the Plutonium Fuel Form (PuFF) facility that produced Pu-238 heat sources for the space program. As a result of these missions, areas within Building 235-F contain considerable residual amounts of both Pu-238 and Np-237. Contaminant migration modeling of Building 235-F was originally performed in 2012 to identify the feasibility of ISD and the amount of radioactive material removal required to prevent the exceedance of groundwater MCLs. The original model indicated that a 60% reduction in the PuFF facility Pu-238 inventory could keep groundwater concentrations below standards, while Np-237 did not pose a threat to groundwater. However, updates to the model with an emphasis on source impact pathways revealed that, due to the orientation of the source areas relative to groundwater flow, no amount of reasonable removal of Pu-238 would keep groundwater concentrations below MCLs and that Np-237 could be a large contributor to localized MCL exceedances. With this insight, the refined 2019 model is being used to assist in the development of grouting plans specific to each facility source area, where bentonite may be utilized to slow the migration of Pu-238 and its daughter products from the PuFF facility and a reducing grout may decrease Np-237 transport by ensuring the nuclide remains in the less mobile +IV oxidation state. The beginning phases of contaminant migration modeling are underway for F-Canyon and associated facilities using lessons learned from the Reactors and Building 235-F. A contaminant migration pathway, similar to the pathway used for the reactor vessels, is being developed for the hot and warm canyons. The F-Canyon inventories are being spatially refined to identify specific and localized source zones, comparable to Building 235-F, that may impact groundwater. Contaminant migration modeling provides vital input within the ISD process, from facility investigation to post closure effectiveness monitoring, making it a valuable tool in the development of safe and effective end states for hardened nuclear facilities at SRS. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wind Energy High-Fidelity Model Verification and Validation Roadmap

The development of a next generation high-fidelity modeling code for wind plant applications is one of the central focus areas of the U.S. Department of Energy Atmosphere to Electrons (A2e) initiative. The code is based on a highly scalable framework, currently called Nalu-Wind. One key aspect of the model development is a coordinated formal validation program undertaken specifically to establish the predictive capability of Nalu-Wind for wind plant applications. The purpose of this document is to define the verification and validation (V&V) plan for the A2e high-fidelity modeling capability. It summarizes the V&V framework, identifies code capability users and use cases, describes model validation needs, and presents a timeline to meet those needs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using a Large Language Model as a Building Block to Generate Usable Validation and Verification Suite for OpenMP

In the HPC area, both hardware and software move quickly. Often new hardware is developed and deployed, the corresponding software stack, including compilers and other tools, are under active development while leading edge software developers are working to port and tune their applications, all at the same time. While the software ecosystem is in flux, one of the key challenges for users is obtaining insight into the state of implementation of key features in the programming languages and models their applications are using – whether they have been implemented, and whether the implementation conforms to the specification, especially for newly implemented features (less tested by widespread use). OpenMP is one of the most prominent shared memory programming models used for on-node programming in HPC. With the shift towards accelerators (such as GPUs and FPGAs) and heterogeneous programming OpenMP features are getting more complex. It is natural to ask whether generative AI approaches, and large language models (LLMs) in particular, can help in producing validation and verification test suites to allow users better and faster insights into the availability and correctness of OpenMP features of interest. In this work, we explore the use of ChatGPT-4 to generate a suite of tests for OpenMP features. We have chosen a set of directives and clauses, a total of 78 combinations, which first appeared in OpenMP 3.0 (released in May 2008) but are also relevant for accelerators. We prompted ChatGPT to generate tests in the C and Fortran languages, for both host (CPU) and device (accelerator). On the Summit super-computer using the GNU implementation, we found that, of the 78 generated tests 67 C tests and 43 Fortran tests compiled successfully and fewer than those executed to completion. On further analysis we show that not all generated tests are valid. We document the process, results, and provide detailed analysis regarding the quality of tests generated. With the aim of providing input to a production quality validation and verification suite, we manually implement the corrections required to make the tests valid according to the current OpenMP specification. We quantify this effort as small, medium, or large, and record the lines of code changed to correct the invalid tests. With the corrected tests we validate recent implementations from HPE, AMD, and GNU on the Frontier supercomputer. Our experiment and subsequent analysis show that although LLMs are capable of producing HPC specific codes, they are limited by their understanding of the deeper semantics and restrictions of programming models such as OpenMP. Unsurprisingly more commonly used features have better support, while some OpenMP 3.0 directives such as sections and tasking are not universally supported on accelerators. We demonstrate that successful compilation and execution to completion are inadequate metrics for evaluating generated code and that, at this time, commodity LLMs require expert intervention for code verification. This points to gaps in the training data that is currently available for HPC. We demonstrate that with "small" effort 37% of generated invalid C tests and 63% of generated invalid Fortran tests could be corrected. This improves productivity of test generation as we circumvent writing from scratch and the common programming errors associated with it.

Pophale, Swaroop [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000185446367)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Jacobian-based model diagnostics and application to equation oriented modeling of a carbon capture system

It can be difficult to identify the specific variables or equations responsible for convergence issues in large mathematical programming models. The Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems Integrated Platform (IDAES-IP) contains a tool to identify poorly scaled constraints and variables by searching for rows and columns of the Jacobian matrix with small L2-norms. A singular value decomposition is then performed to identify degenerate sets of equations and remaining scaling issues. Here, this work presents a flowsheet developed for post-combustion carbon capture using a monoethanolamine (MEA) solvent system as a case study. This work takes the reader through the entire process of model diagnostics and reformulation, from a basic introduction to the mathematics behind these model diagnostics to the reformulations necessary to make the model numerically robust, including a significantly modified enhancement factor model.

IDAES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An agent-based approach to study the diffusion rate and the effect of policies on joint placement of photovoltaic panels and green roof under climate change uncertainty

As two of the highest trending green technologies, photovoltaic panels and green roofs are proven to be effective practices for energy generation and energy saving. The achievable impact from the widespread installation of such technologies is, however, not clearly established. This is mainly because the degree of this impact highly depends on the inherently uncertain environmental and climate factors, as well as the unknown adoption rates of these technologies, which in turn depend on different characteristics of decision makers and interactions among them. To that end, this study aims to investigate the diffusion rate of these green technologies under uncertainties caused by climate change, characteristics of adopters, and their interactions. An integrated framework is developed to capture the interplay between financial and attitudinal aspects, as well as the uncertainties due to both the stochastic nature of system parameters and the interactions among agents involving human beings. Specifically, this framework consists of a integer programming model to optimize the green roof and/or photovoltaic panel installation settings for a given building under climate change uncertainty, and an agent-based model to factor in the role of human behavior and interactions. A case study for the city of Knoxville, TN, is presented to evaluate the effects of different policies on the diffusion rate of the green technologies of interest. The results show that the affordability of green technologies and public awareness are the key drivers of the adoption of these technologies, which highlight the important role of the decision makers in impacting the diffusion rate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Repair and Resource Scheduling in Unbalanced Distribution Systems Using Neighborhood Search

—This paper proposes an optimization strategy to assist utility operators to recover power distribution systems after large outages. Specifically, a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is developed for co-optimizing crews, resources, and network operations. The MILP model coordinates damage isolation, network reconfiguration, distributed generator re-dispatch, and crew/resource logistics. In addition, a framework for integrating different types of photovoltaic (PV) systems in the restoration process is developed. We consider two different types of crews, namely, line crews for damage repair and tree crews for obstacle removal. We also model the repair resource logistic constraints. Furthermore, a new algorithm is developed for solving the distribution system repair and restoration problem (DSRRP). The algorithm starts by solving DSRRP using an assignmentbased method, then a neighborhood search method is designed to iteratively improve the solution. The proposed method is validated on modified IEEE 123- and 8500-bus distribution test systems.

Outage management↗
DOE OSTI2020

Towards Generic Parallel Programming in Computer Science Education with Kokkos

Parallel patterns, views, and spaces are promising abstractions to capture the programmer's intent as well as the contextual information that can be used by an underlying runtime to efficiently map software to parallel hardware. These abstractions can be valuable in cases where an algorithm must accommodate requirements of code and performance portability across hardware architectures and vendor programming models. Kokkos is a parallel programming model for host- and accelerator architectures that relies on these abstractions and targets these requirements. It consists of a pure C++ interface, a specification, and a programming library. The programming library exposes patterns and types and maps them to an underlying abstract machine model. The abstract machine model offers a generic view of parallel hardware. While Kokkos is gaining popularity in large-scale HPC applications at some DOE laboratories, we believe that the implemented concepts are of interest to a broader audience including academia as they may contribute to a generic, vendor, and architecture-independent education of parallel programming. In this work, we give an insight into the design considerations of this programming model and list important abstractions. Further, we document best practices obtained from giving virtual classes on Kokkos and give pointers to resources that the reader may consider valuable for a lecture on generic parallel programming for students with preexisting knowledge on this matter.

Ciesko, Jan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modelling detector-specific reconstruction uncertainties in LAr-TPC

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program features three Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LAr-TPC) detectors positioned along the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) axis: the Short Baseline Neutrino Near Detector, MicroBooNE, and the ICARUS T600. As the largest operational LAr-TPC, ICARUS T600 serves as the far detector, located 600 m from the BNB target. While its primary goal is to record neutrino events, it also detects other ionizing events, including cosmic rays. This work focuses on analyzing and modeling detector-specific reconstruction uncertainties in LAr-TPC. These inefficiencies, identified during the Pattern Recognition phase handled by the PANDORA algorithm, impact subsequent Particle Fits and Offline Analysis. Specifically, inaccuracies in track reconstruction can lead to significant physical consequences, such as erroneous particle energy estimates and poor Particle Identification (PID), reducing the efficiency of neutrino event characterization. A key issue addressed is split tracks, caused by missing hits or incomplete track stitching by PANDORA. The aim of this internship is to characterize, model, and quantify the impact of split tracks on track reconstruction.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance portable ice-sheet modeling with MALI

High-resolution simulations of polar ice sheets play a crucial role in the ongoing effort to develop more accurate and reliable Earth system models for probabilistic sea-level projections. These simulations often require a massive amount of memory and computation from large supercomputing clusters to provide sufficient accuracy and resolution; therefore, it has become essential to ensure performance on these platforms. Many of today’s supercomputers contain a diverse set of computing architectures and require specific programming interfaces in order to obtain optimal efficiency. In an effort to avoid architecture-specific programming and maintain productivity across platforms, the ice-sheet modeling code known as MPAS-Albany Land Ice (MALI) uses high-level abstractions to integrate Trilinos libraries and the Kokkos programming model for performance portable code across a variety of different architectures. In this article, we analyze the performance portable features of MALI via a performance analysis on current CPU-based and GPU-based supercomputers. The analysis highlights not only the performance portable improvements made in finite element assembly and multigrid preconditioning within MALI with speedups between 1.26 and 1.82x across CPU and GPU architectures but also identifies the need to further improve performance in software coupling and preconditioning on GPUs. We perform a weak scalability study and show that simulations on GPU-based machines perform 1.24–1.92x faster when utilizing the GPUs. The best performance is found in finite element assembly, which achieved a speedup of up to 8.65x and a weak scaling efficiency of 82.6% with GPUs. We additionally describe an automated performance testing framework developed for this code base using a changepoint detection method. The framework is used to make actionable decisions about performance within MALI. We provide several concrete examples of scenarios in which the framework has identified performance regressions, improvements, and algorithm differences over the course of 2 years of development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

E3SMFC

SAND2025-01123O E3SMFC is a software tool that integrates a feedback controller algorithm into the E3SM climate model to regulate sulfur dioxide injection, aiming to achieve specific climate outcomes. The program uses proportional-integral-derivative feedback control to adjusts sulfur dioxide levels in both spatial and temporal dimensions. It will only operate on computers that can run the DOE climate model E3SM. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Ojetola, Samuel↗
DOE OSTI2022

KokkACC: Enhancing Kokkos with OpenACC

Template metaprogramming is gaining popularity as a high-level solution for achieving performance portability on heterogeneous computing resources. Kokkos is a representative approach that offers programmers high-level abstractions for generic programming while most of the device-specific code generation and optimizations are delegated to the compiler through template specializations. For this, Kokkos provides a set of device-specific code specializations in multiple back ends, such as CUDA and HIP. Unlike CUDA or HIP, OpenACC is a high-level and directive-based programming model. This descriptive model allows developers to insert hints (pragmas) into their code that help the compiler to parallelize the code. The compiler is responsible for the transformation of the code, which is completely transparent to the programmer. This paper presents an OpenACC back end for Kokkos: KokkACC. As an alternative to Kokkos’s existing device-specific back ends, KokkACC is a multi-architecture back end providing a high-productivity programming environment enabled by OpenACC’s high-level and descriptive programming model. Moreover, we have observed competitive performance; in some cases, KokkACC is faster (up to 9×) than NVIDIA’s CUDA back end and much faster than OpenMP’s GPU offloading back end. This work also includes implementation details and a detailed performance study conducted with a set of mini-benchmarks (AXPY and DOT product) and three mini-apps (LULESH, miniFE and SNAP, a LAMMPS proxy mini-app).

Valero Lara, Pedro↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Uniform Methods Project: Smart Thermostat Evaluation Protocol

A smart thermostat is an internet-connected device that controls home heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment and can automatically adjust temperature set points to optimize performance and achieve energy savings. Smart thermostat features often include two way communication, occupancy detection (such as geofencing and occupancy sensors), schedule learning, and seasonal optimization algorithms. Smart thermostats can control most conventional HVAC systems, including central air conditioners, heat pumps, and forced air furnaces. Several types of residential utility programs offer smart thermostats as replacements measures. Working with smart thermostat vendors, utilities can offer separate optimization programs to produce energy savings beyond those achieved by installing a smart thermostat. From an evaluation perspective, smart thermostat programs have several noteworthy features. First, the energy savings from a smart thermostat may change over the life of the device. As a smart thermostat is connected to the internet, original equipment manufacturers can update the thermostat software to improve the thermostat's energy efficiency. Likewise, users can adjust the thermostat settings and schedules over time in response to changes in weather, thermal comfort, energy prices, or preferences for energy efficiency. Additionally, many thermostat manufacturers offer seasonal optimization programs that recommend changes or make minor, automated adjustments to the thermostat settings to improve energy efficiency. These opt-in programs are now standard offerings for many smart thermostat manufacturers and provided at no additional cost to users. The potential for software updates and continuous optimization and the evolving nature of user interactions mean future energy savings may differ from first-year savings and the energy savings of smart thermostats may need to be evaluated more than once. Second, smart thermostats often have small unit energy savings relative to a home's total energy consumption, especially in comparison to whole- home retrofit programs. This can make it difficult to detect the smart thermostat savings in billing or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) meter consumption data. For example, as cooling loads in many regions average about 20% of annual electricity consumption, smart thermostat savings of 10% of cooling energy use would equate to a 2% reduction in home electricity consumption. Evaluators should use regression analysis of whole-home billing consumption or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) meter consumption data to evaluate smart thermostat savings because, as explained at greater length below , these data are usually available to evaluators and regression can control for the impacts of weather and other potentially confounding factors on a home's energy consumption. Finally, as with other energy efficiency programs, participation in smart thermostat programs is self-selective. As discussed at greater length below , smart thermostat participants tend to be, among other things, younger, higher-income, and more likely to adopt electric vehicles (EVs) and internet connected devices than nonparticipants. These differences are often unobservable to the evaluator and correlated with a home's energy consumption, creating the potential for bias in estimating savings. Due to the small unit savings of thermostats, errors and biases from self-selection that may not be very consequential when evaluating a whole- home retrofits (e.g., ±2% of home electricity consumption) can have a major impact when evaluating the savings and cost-effectiveness of smart thermostat programs. A percentage point change in the estimated savings could affect the cost-effectiveness of a program. This means it is important for evaluators to assess and to minimize the potential for error from selection bias in estimating smart thermostat program savings. The Uniform Methods Project provides model protocols for determining energy savings and demand reductions that result from specific energy efficiency measures implemented through state and utility programs. In most cases, the measure protocols are based on a particular option identified by the International Performance Verification and Measurement Protocol ; however, this work provides a more detailed approach to implementing that option. Each chapter is written by technical experts in collaboration with their peers, reviewed by industry experts, and subject to public review and comment. The UMP protocols can be used by utilities, program administrators, public utility commissions, evaluators, and other stakeholders for both program planning and evaluation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗