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24 records · Page 2
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DOE OSTI2025

Geospatial Diffusion for Land Cover Imperviousness Change Forecasting

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) has a significant effect on several Earth system processes. For example, impervious surfaces reduce infiltration and speed water flow, impacting regional hydrology and flood risk. While Earth System models have improved forecasting hydrologic and atmospheric processes at higher resolutions, the ability to forecast LULC change has lagged behind. In this paper, we propose a new paradigm exploiting Generative AI (GenAI) for land cover change forecasting by framing it as a data synthesis problem conditioned on historical and auxiliary data-sources. To demonstrate the feasibility of our methodology, we perform experiments where a diffusion model is trained for decadal forecasting of imperviousness change across the entire United States. We find that our model yields MAE lower than a no-change baseline for resolutions ≥ 0.7 X 0.7km2 on average, demonstrating its ability to capture and project accurate spatiotemporal patterns. Finally, we discuss future research to incorporate Earth's physical properties and enabling scenario simulations via driver variables.

Varshney, Debvrat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000188981736)↗
DOE OSTI2021

plutus: An R package to calculate electricity investments and stranded assets from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)

plutus is an R package that post-processes outputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to calculate the power sector capital investment costs and stranded asset costs associated with GCAM projections of electricity generation by technology. GCAM is a market equilibrium model used to examine the dynamics of the coupled human-Earth system and the response of this system to global change, including socioeconomics, technology, climate, and policy. GCAM tracks electricity generation by technology and vintage over 32 geopolitical regions throughout the lifetime of each generating technology. plutus extends GCAM functionality by (1) estimating the foregone economic value of prematurely retired power plants as a result of economic-induced retirements compared to scheduled lifetimes; and (2) estimating the new installations and capital investments driven by future changes in economic, energy, agriculture, and land-use systems in GCAM.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A hierarchical evaluation framework for assessing climate simulations relevant to the energy-water-land nexus (Final Report)

The overarching goal was to construct a hierarchy of new and well-tested metrics and analysis tools that support both fundamental and use-inspired research. Motivating this goal was a convergence of needs from climate scientists and stakeholders alike for a systematic, robust framework of model evaluation and diagnosis to provide scientific insights, inform model development, support best practices for the use of climate model outputs, and facilitate communication of climate information in the evolving landscapes of multi-model, multi-resolution, and large ensemble simulations that generate terabytes of data for any single climate run. Steps toward attaining these goals benefited from expertise and established capability of the project team, which included leadership of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), development of hierarchical model evaluation approaches, and successful research in the analysis and diagnosis of climate model skill, as well as the understanding and modeling of regional climate processes in North America. As part of the overarching goal, the project worked to disseminate a suite of methodologies, algorithms, and software components that the wider community can employ to advance climate science and applications. With rigorous demonstration, the evaluation framework and the mix of standard and high risk / high reward approaches helped form the basis for future development of a computationally enabled user-friendly system for community use.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6

Abstract. Human land use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth's surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community has developed the next generation of advanced Earth system models (ESMs) to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g., land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon–climate system. A new set of historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE), and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015–2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, is required as input for these models. With most ESM simulations for CMIP6 now completed, it is important to document the land use patterns used by those simulations. Here we present results from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, which smoothly connects updated historical reconstructions of land use with eight new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land use patterns, underlying land use transitions, key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually, while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions and preserving changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds on a similar effort from CMIP5 and is now provided at higher resolution (0.25∘×0.25∘) over a longer time domain (850–2100, with extensions to 2300) with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management practices) using more input datasets (including Landsat remote sensing data) and updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation); it is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain > 50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5 and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land use on the global carbon–climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

CLM5 Simulations of Soil Moisture and Grain Carbon for CONUS at 0.125 degrees

This dataset provides 0.125° gridded simulations of soil moisture and crop grain carbon for the Contiguous United States (CONUS), generated using the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) with the biogeochemistry module enabled. The data covers a historical baseline (1980–2015) and mid-century future projections (2020–2055). Future projections are organized into two sets of scenarios to distinguish the impacts of different drivers: (1) Atmospheric Only (ATM-only): These scenarios apply future atmospheric forcings while holding land use and land cover change (LULCC) at historical baseline levels. The atmospheric forcings represent moderately versus severely hotter/drier atmospheric conditions (dynamically downscaled perturbed thermodynamics simulations based on CMIP6 SSP245 and SSP585 warming signals), each with cooler versus hotter Earth System Model temperature sensitivity instantiations. These scenarios are identified in the file names as atm45cooler, atm45hotter, atm85cooler, and atm85hotter. (2) Coupled Atmospheric and Land-Use (LAND+ATM): These scenarios apply future atmospheric forcing together with future LULCC by pairing atmospheric pathways with lower versus higher population/economic growth scenarios representing Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5 (SSP3 and SSP5). These scenarios are identified in the file names as atm45cooler_ssp3, atm45hotter_ssp3, atm45cooler_ssp5, atm45hotter_ssp5, atm85cooler_ssp3, atm85hotter_ssp3, atm85cooler_ssp5, and atm85hotter_ssp5. Please refer to the README file for detailed information on file structure, variables, units, and data formats.

Yao, Lili [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory] ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the impact of climate change on erosion - 20397

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351-ha (3,338-ac) site located approximately 48 km (30 mi) south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into Agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States. NFS, a private company, built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg (metric tons, or 705 short tons) of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations ended in 1972 and never reopened, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. Erosion can play an important role in the fate and transport of waste at sites where disposal of long-lived waste is anticipated. The statistical characterization of key processes related to erosion is essential to the understanding of site stability through time. One of the key processes governing erosion is extreme precipitation and it is critical that trends in the distribution of extreme precipitation events through time be represented. The evidence of climate change is increasingly well documented and projected impacts on extreme precipitation events should be incorporated in performance assessment studies when relevant. Not evaluating future climate states in a performance assessment is contradictory to good modeling practice. Specifically, excluding climate change limits development of modeling information that could aid in effective decision making. The current climate literature provides both observational evidence and climate model projections of climate trends and/or climate change in the late 20. and early 21. centuries for North America and the northeast United States. In this work, this information was used to assess the impacts of potential changes in climate on erosion processes. The goal was to understand how projections of future climate relate to the performance of the WNYNSC through time. In the first stage of this work multi-temporal historical aerial images were analyzed in conjunction with orthophotography and Lidar data to develop probability distributions for variables representing important erosion processes. The information from these analyses was then used in conjunction with simulated data from the West Valley Erosion Working Group (EWG). Analysis of EWG simulations provides estimates for the change in erosion rates through time that is driven by changes in climate. The time-varying rates of erosion change were applied to the historical aerial imagery data in order to inform time-varying rates of erosion that are driven by changes in climate. Ultimately, this process resulted in the identification of locations for features like gully heads using both the Lidar dataset and projection of the estimated location from the historical aerial photo under consideration back to the Lidar dataset. The distance between the estimate of the location from the historical image and that of the Lidar dataset was the estimated distance the feature has moved. This distance was then divided by the number of years between the Lidar dataset and the year of the historical aerial image of interest to get a rate of movement through time. This was done for several dozen points on each historical aerial image. The analyses from the EWG were used to characterize the relative impact of climate change on the erosion rates. This relative impact was quantified by comparing the LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using historical climate data with LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using projections of future climate. The relative increase in the erosion rates was then applied to the historical estimates of erosion derived from the analysis of the historical aerial imagery. This approach was used since the LEM-based estimated of the historical erosion rates from the past century have a bias towards underestimating erosion. This underestimation is hypothesized to be a consequence of an inability of the LEMs to account for the impacts of land-use change (i.e. deforestation) which had been shown to significantly increase erosion in similar Northern hardwood forest ecosystems. In summary, gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate were characterized using statistical probability distributions from the historical aerial image analysis. Simulated data from the EWG was used to estimate the climatically-driven changes in erosion rates through time. The changes through time from the EWG were applied to the gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate characterized using the historical aerial image analysis. This information can be used to inform PPA models to project future risks from a given site. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗