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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Reference Shapefiles and Pre-trained Random Forest Classification Models for Detecting Aufeis on the North Slope of Alaska in Landsat Imagery

This dataset provides shapefiles and trained machine learning models used for aufeis detection at four sites on the North Slope of Alaska. It includes reference data for evaluating Landsat-based detection methods, supporting research on remote sensing approaches for identifying aufeis. The ReferenceData folder contains ArcGIS shapefiles of semi-automated land cover classifications for 217 Landsat Collection 2 images, categorizing pixels into six classes: aufeis, snow, ground, none, water, and cloud. The SiteBuffers.zip file includes 10-kilometer buffer shapefiles defining regions of interest around four aufeis fields (Canning21, FH1, Firth, and Kuparuk), used to test three detection techniques. Additionally, the TrainedRFModels folder contains six pre-trained Scikit-Learn Random Forest classifiers (100 trees, max depth = 30) designed to predict aufeis presence in Landsat Collection 2 Surface Reflectance images using Red, Blue, SWIR2, NDVI, and NDWI bands. This dataset supports the development and validation of remote sensing methods for mapping aufeis in Arctic environments.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping Inundation from Hurricane Florence (2018) with L-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar, Commercial Imagery, and Ancillary Data via Random Forest Classification

Mapping the extent of floodwaters following extreme rainfall aids in the distribution of resources, recovery efforts, and damage assessment practices. Development of a land cover classification system focused on mapping inundation after major hurricane events using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data could allow for the production of near-real-time inundation mapping, enabling government and emergency response entities to get a preliminary idea of a developing situation. In response to Hurricane Florence of 2018, NASA JPL collected numerous swaths of quad-pol L-band SAR data with the Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) instrument observing the record-setting river stages across North and South Carolina. The resulting fully-polarized SAR images allow for mapping of inundation extent at a high spatial resolution with a unique advantage over optical imaging stemming from the sensor’s ability to penetrate cloud cover and dense vegetation. This study seeks to determine how accurately maps of inundation can be generated from L-band SAR imagery through Random Forest classification. Once the extent of water and inundated vegetation is classified, cleanup operations are performed using fuzzy logic to reduce false detections. Estimates of water extent are then combined with datasets describing the distribution of population, buildings, and roads throughout the domain to evaluate societal impacts. Results from the Hurricane Florence case study will be discussed along with the limitations of available validation data for assessment of the classifier’s accuracy.

Alexander Melancon↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Calibration of Stochastic Agent Based Model via Random Forest

Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and environments. However, these models are usually stochastic and highly parametrized, requiring precise calibration for predictive performance. When considering realistic numbers of agents and properly accounting for stochasticity, this high-dimensional calibration can be computationally prohibitive. This paper presents a random forest-based surrogate modeling technique to accelerate the evaluation of ABMs and demonstrates its use to calibrate an epidemiological ABM named CityCOVID via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The technique is first outlined in the context of CityCOVID's quantities of interest, namely hospitalizations and deaths, by exploring dimensionality reduction via temporal decomposition with principal component analysis (PCA) and via sensitivity analysis. The calibration problem is then presented, and samples are generated to best match COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers in Chicago from March to June in 2020. Further, these results are compared with previous approximate Bayesian calibration (IMABC) results, and their predictive performance is analyzed, showing improved performance with a reduction in computation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Random Forest Prediction of Crystal Structure from Electron Diffraction Patterns

Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) diffraction patterns are regularly used to determine the structure of crystalline materials. Electron diffraction is the most common method to solve for unknown or partially known crystal structures, as it provides direct and interpretable feedback on the orientation of crystal grains under the beam [1]. However, it remains a challenge to determine the crystal structure of a new material or even a new phase of an existing material. Analysis of such materials commonly requires manual exploration and comparison with simulated diffraction patterns. This is often a time consuming process with no obvious start point when many similar structures are possible, and this method cannot be used to determine crystal structure or orientation from structures not included in the diffraction libraries. Therefore, we have developed a machine learning model to determine the crystal structure of a material from its electron diffraction pattern.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Microstructure Quantification and Random Forest Regression Models for Li4Ti5O12–Ni Property Prediction

All-solid-state structural lithium-ion batteries are sought to enable all-electric propulsion in next generation aerospace concepts through improved safety and systems level weight savings. In this work, the influence of processing conditions on microstructural evolution was evaluated for anode composites of strain-free Li4Ti5O12 and metallic nickel current collector. Beyond size distributions, this study explored methods of quantifying microstructural features that describe changes in the spatial distribution and coalescence of nickel particles as a function of sample composition and sintering conditions. Processing-microstructure-property relationships were described by microstructure quantifiers including nickel particle count per area, nearest neighbor distance distribution, and edge-to-edge distance distribution. Machine learning methods were applied to compare the relative influence of processing conditions and microstructural features on electrical conductivity and mechanical strength to optimize for simultaneous energy storage and load bearing performance. Insights gained from this work inform future evaluation of alternative energy storage materials and microstructures for multifunctional performance, and generation of microstructural descriptors strengthens modeling across length scales.

anode↗
NASA NTRS2021

Bhutan Agriculture: Developing a Crop Mask for Rice and Creating a Data Collection Protocol Utilizing Remotely Sensed Data in Bhutan

Rice cultivation in Bhutan has been increasingly threatened by deteriorating soil health and outbreaks of diseases and pests associated with the global change in climate patterns. Field surveys, which the national government of Bhutan has relied on to monitor remote agricultural lands, are becoming increasingly overwhelmed by growing threats to agricultural health. To address these concerns, NASA DEVELOP partnered with the Department of Agriculture of Bhutan, the Bhutan Foundation, and the Ugyen Wangchuck Institute of Conservation and Environmental Research (UWICER) and worked to increase the government of Bhutan’s agricultural monitoring capacity. Utilizing Earth observations including Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and Planet imagery, the DEVELOP team worked with NASA SERVIR and created a sampling protocol to identify rice plantations and supplement field surveys for more efficient agriculture monitoring. The analysis focused on districts Paro, Punakha, Samtse, Sarpang, Trongsa, Zhemgang, Wangdue Phodrang, and Samdrup Jongkhar in the year 2020 during the period of transplantation (June) to harvesting of rice (November). The team provided the partners with a sampling protocol for integrating NASA Earth observations into their crop monitoring methods, as well as a crop mask for rice identification and to aid crop management. The crop mask for rice was developed using the Random Forest (RF) classifier for the eight districts of Bhutan. Visually, the random forest model has proved to be more accurate and precise than the classification and Regression Tree model. Statistically, the Random Forest model was 91.8% accurate in identifying rice in Bhutan.

Yeshey Seldon↗
DOE OSTI2025

PAVC Gridded 20m Alaska NGEE Tier3 PFTs v1.0

These 20-meter spatial resolution gridded products provide per-pixel fractional cover (%) of Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE) Arctic Plant Functional Types (PFTs) Tier 3 across Alaska, north of the boreal treeline. The products were developed for the NGEE Arctic project, which is improving Arctic vegetation representation and parameterization of the E3SM Land Model. This dataset includes 8 files containing fractional cover for NGEE Tier 3 PFTs (https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/2529470): (1) bryophytes; (2) lichens; (3) non-vascular plants, i.e., the sum of lichens and bryophytes; (4) deciduous shrubs, (5) evergreen shrubs, (6) forbs, (7) graminoids, and a non-PFT class, (8) litter. Each pixel contains the percent cover (expressed as a fraction of total ground cover) that was predicted by random-forest regression models. The random-forest models were trained on cover data collected at 978 plots from 2010 to 2021, of which are archived in the Pan-Arctic Vegetation Cover (PAVC) database (https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/2483557). The plot cover was linked to 20-meter spatial resolution, satellite-derived predictor variables: Sentinel-2 spectra and Sentinel-1 polarizations averaged over the 2019 growing season, as well as topographical features derived from ArcticDEM. Then, spatio-temporally anomalous plot data that introduced large variability to the regression outcomes were dropped using the Cook’s distance outlier detection method, and the models were re-created using high-quality plots and their associated satellite derived explanatory variables per each PFT. The correlations between plot-observed and satellite-derived fractional cover for all PFTs were well correlated (R2 = 0.69–0.95 and 0.5 for litter) and had low RMSE bias (0.02–0.11). This research was performed as a part of the NGEE Arctic project. The NGEE Arctic project was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2026

Benchmarking Bayesian Optimization Frameworks and Acquisition Strategies for Materials Discovery and Autonomous Laboratories

Bayesian optimization (BO) can accelerate materials discovery by guiding expensive experiments toward the most promising processing conditions. We systematically compare five BO surrogate and framework combinations (Gaussian processes in Ax, Gaussian processes and Monte-Carlo neural networks in BayBE, random forests in Lolopy, and tree-structured Parzen (TPE) estimators in Hyperopt) on three benchmarks that mimic common materials design tasks (a discrete solid-electrolyte composition space, a hybrid discrete/continuous laminate-composite design problem solved with micromechanics modeling, and the continuous Ishigami analytic function which is a standard optimization benchmark). Each BO surrogate is paired with posterior mean, probability of improvement, and expected improvement acquisition functions and run for 100 trials from randomized initial samples with uniform random search providing a control. Across five random seeds per setting, BayBE’s Gaussian-process surrogate with expected improvement consistently reached ≥95 % of the known optimum in the fewest evaluations, while Lolopy’s random forest matched or exceeded GP performance on purely categorical or mixed spaces at a higher computational cost. Posterior mean alone often stagnated at local optima, underscoring the need for exploration, whereas probability and expected improvement balanced exploration and exploitation leading to better optimization in fewer trials. Execution times ranged from milliseconds for TPE to minutes for neural-network and random-forest surrogates. These results establish baseline expectations for BO in automated materials laboratories and highlight expected improvement with Gaussian processes as a reliable first choice, with random forests offering a strong alternative when categorical variables dominate. The benchmark suite and code are released to facilitate future surrogate, acquisition, and constraint-handling research in data-driven materials optimization.

Bayesian optimization↗
NASA NTRS2021

X-ray Spectra and Multiwavelength Machine Learning Classification for Likely Counterparts toFermi3FGL Unassociated Sources

We conduct X-ray spectral fits on 184 likely counterparts to Fermi-LAT 3FGL unassociated sources. Characterization and classification of these sources allows for more complete population studies of the high-energy sky. Most of these X-ray spectra are well fit by an absorbed power law model, as expected for a population dominated by blazars and pulsars. A small subset of 7 X-ray sources ave spectra unlike the power law expected from a blazar or pulsar and may be linked to coincident stars or background emission. We develop a multiwavelength machine learning classifier to categorize unassociated sources into pulsars and blazars using gamma- and X-ray observations. Training a random forest procedure with known pulsars and blazars, we achieve a cross-validated classification accuracy of 98.6%. Applying the random forest routine to the unassociated sources returned 126 likely blazar candidates (defined as P(bzr) ≥ 90%) and 5 likely pulsar candidates (P(bzr) ≤ 10%). Our new X-ray spectral analysis does not drastically alter the random forest classifications of these sources compared to previous works, but it builds a more robust classification scheme and highlights the importance of X-ray spectral fitting. Our procedure can be further expanded with UV, visual, or radio spectral parameters or by measuring flux variability.

Stephen Kerby↗