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Deep active learning for classifying cancer pathology reports

Abstract Background Automated text classification has many important applications in the clinical setting; however, obtaining labelled data for training machine learning and deep learning models is often difficult and expensive. Active learning techniques may mitigate this challenge by reducing the amount of labelled data required to effectively train a model. In this study, we analyze the effectiveness of 11 active learning algorithms on classifying subsite and histology from cancer pathology reports using a Convolutional Neural Network as the text classification model. Results We compare the performance of each active learning strategy using two differently sized datasets and two different classification tasks. Our results show that on all tasks and dataset sizes, all active learning strategies except diversity-sampling strategies outperformed random sampling, i.e., no active learning. On our large dataset (15K initial labelled samples, adding 15K additional labelled samples each iteration of active learning), there was no clear winner between the different active learning strategies. On our small dataset (1K initial labelled samples, adding 1K additional labelled samples each iteration of active learning), marginal and ratio uncertainty sampling performed better than all other active learning techniques. We found that compared to random sampling, active learning strongly helps performance on rare classes by focusing on underrepresented classes. Conclusions Active learning can save annotation cost by helping human annotators efficiently and intelligently select which samples to label. Our results show that a dataset constructed using effective active learning techniques requires less than half the amount of labelled data to achieve the same performance as a dataset constructed using random sampling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of a Class of Simple and Effective Uncertainty Methods for Sparse Samples of Random Variables and Functions

When very few samples of a random quantity are available from a source distribution of unknown shape, it is usually not possible to accurately infer the exact distribution from which the data samples come. Under-estimation of important quantities such as response variance and failure probabilities can result. For many engineering purposes, including design and risk analysis, we attempt to avoid under-estimation with a strategy to conservatively estimate (bound) these types of quantities -- without being overly conservative -- when only a few samples of a random quantity are available from model predictions or replicate experiments. This report examines a class of related sparse-data uncertainty representation and inference approaches that are relatively simple, inexpensive, and effective. Tradeoffs between the methods' conservatism, reliability, and risk versus number of data samples (cost) are quantified with multi-attribute metrics use d to assess method performance for conservative estimation of two representative quantities: central 95% of response; and 10 -4 probability of exceeding a response threshold in a tail of the distribution. Each method's performance is characterized with 10,000 random trials on a large number of diverse and challenging distributions. The best method and number of samples to use in a given circumstance depends on the uncertainty quantity to be estimated, the PDF character, and the desired reliability of bounding the true value. On the basis of this large data base and study, a strategy is proposed for selecting the method and number of samples for attaining reasonable credibility levels in bounding these types of quantities when sparse samples of random variables or functions are available from experiments or simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Comparison of Social Media, Syndromic Surveillance, and Microbiologic Acute Respiratory Infection Data: Observational Study

Internet data can be used to improve infectious disease models. However, the representativeness and individual-level validity of internet-derived measures are largely unexplored as this requires ground truth data for study. This study sought to identify relationships between Web-based behaviors and/or conversation topics and health status using a ground truth, survey-based dataset. This study leveraged a unique dataset of self-reported surveys, microbiological laboratory tests, and social media data from the same individuals toward understanding the validity of individual-level constructs pertaining to influenza-like illness in social media data. Logistic regression models were used to identify illness in Twitter posts using user posting behaviors and topic model features extracted from users’ tweets. Of 396 original study participants, only 81 met the inclusion criteria for this study. Of these participants’ tweets, we identified only two instances that were related to health and occurred within 2 weeks (before or after) of a survey indicating symptoms. It was not possible to predict when participants reported symptoms using features derived from topic models (area under the curve [AUC]=0.51; P=.38), though it was possible using behavior features, albeit with a very small effect size (AUC=0.53; P≤.001). Individual symptoms were also generally not predictable either. The study sample and a random sample from Twitter are predictably different on held-out data (AUC=0.67; P≤.001), meaning that the content posted by people who participated in this study was predictably different from that posted by random Twitter users. Individuals in the random sample and the GoViral sample used Twitter with similar frequencies (similar @ mentions, number of tweets, and number of retweets; AUC=0.50; P=.19). To our knowledge, this is the first instance of an attempt to use a ground truth dataset to validate infectious disease observations in social media data. The lack of signal, the lack of predictability among behaviors or topics, and the demonstrated volunteer bias in the study population are important findings for the large and growing body of disease surveillance using internet-sourced data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Flow Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) Wind Plant Power Production Data Sets

This dataset contains turbine- and plant-level power outputs for 252,500 cases of diverse wind plant layouts operating under a wide range of yawing and atmospheric conditions. The power outputs were computed using the Gaussian wake model in NREL's FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) model, version 2.3.0. The 252,500 cases include 500 unique wind plants generated randomly by a specialized Plant Layout Generator (PLayGen) that samples randomized realizations of wind plant layouts from one of four canonical configurations: (i) cluster, (ii) single string, (iii) multiple string, (iv) parallel string. Other wind plant layout parameters were also randomly sampled, including the number of turbines (25-200) and the mean turbine spacing (3D-10D, where D denotes the turbine rotor diameter). For each layout, 500 different sets of atmospheric conditions were randomly sampled. These include wind speed in 0-25 m/s, wind direction in 0 deg.-360 deg., and turbulence intensity chosen from low (6%), medium (8%), and high (10%). For each atmospheric inflow scenario, the individual turbine yaw angles were randomly sampled from a one-sided truncated Gaussian on the interval 0 deg.-30 deg. oriented relative to wind inflow direction. This random data is supplemented with a collection of yaw-optimized samples where FLORIS was used to determine turbine yaw angles that maximize power production for the entire plant. To generate this data, a subset of cases were selected (50 atmospheric conditions from 50 layouts each for a total of additional 2,500 cases) for which FLORIS was re-run with wake steering control optimization. The IEA onshore reference turbine, which has a 130 m rotor diameter, a 110 m hub height, and a rated power capacity of 3.4 MW was used as the turbine for all simulations. The simulations were performed using NREL's Eagle high performance computing system in February 2021 as part of the Spatial Analysis for Wind Technology Development project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office. The data was collected, reformatted, and preprocessed for this OEDI submission in May 2023 under the Foundational AI for Wind Energy project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office. This dataset is intended to serve as a benchmark against which new artificial intelligence (AI) or machine learning (ML) tools may be tested. Baseline AI/ML methods for analyzing this dataset have been implemented, and a link to their repository containing those models has been provided. The .h5 data file structure can be found in the GitHub repository under explore_wind_plant_data_h5.ipynb.

AI↗

C-SAW: a framework for graph sampling and random walk on GPUs

Many applications require to learn, mine, analyze and visualize large-scale graphs. These graphs are often too large to be addressed efficiently using conventional graph processing technologies. Fortunately, recent research efforts find out graph sampling and random walk, which significantly reduce the size of original graphs, can benefit the tasks of learning, mining, analyzing and visualizing large graphs by capturing the desirable graph properties. This paper introduces C-SAW, the first framework that accelerates Sampling and Random Walk framework on GPUs. Particularly, C-SAW makes three contributions: First, our framework provides a generic API which allows users to implement a wide range of sampling and random walk algorithms with ease. Second, offloading this framework on GPU, we introduce warp-centric parallel selection, and two novel optimizations for collision migration. Third, towards supporting graphs that exceed the GPU memory capacity, we introduce efficient data transfer optimizations for out-of-memory and multi-GPU sampling, such as workload-aware scheduling and batched multi-instance sampling. Taken together, our framework constantly outperforms the state of the art projects in addition to the capability of supporting a wide range of sampling and random walk algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Boundaries of quantum supremacy via random circuit sampling

Abstract Google’s quantum supremacy experiment heralded a transition point where quantum computers can evaluate a computational task, random circuit sampling, faster than classical supercomputers. We examine the constraints on the region of quantum advantage for quantum circuits with a larger number of qubits and gates than experimentally implemented. At near-term gate fidelities, we demonstrate that quantum supremacy is limited to circuits with a qubit count and circuit depth of a few hundred. Larger circuits encounter two distinct boundaries: a return of a classical advantage and practically infeasible quantum runtimes. Decreasing error rates cause the region of a quantum advantage to grow rapidly. At error rates required for early implementations of the surface code, the largest circuit size within the quantum supremacy regime coincides approximately with the smallest circuit size needed to implement error correction. Thus, the boundaries of quantum supremacy may fortuitously coincide with the advent of scalable, error-corrected quantum computing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Effect of Nonunital Noise on Random-Circuit Sampling

In this work, drawing inspiration from the type of noise present in real hardware, we study the output distribution of random quantum circuits under practical nonunital noise sources with constant noise rates. We show that even in the presence of unital sources such as the depolarizing channel, the distribution, under the combined noise channel, never resembles a maximally entropic distribution at any depth. To show this, we prove that the output distribution of such circuits never anticoncentrates—meaning that it is never too “flat”—regardless of the depth of the circuit. This is in stark contrast to the behavior of noiseless random quantum circuits or those with only unital noise, both of which anticoncentrate at sufficiently large depths. As a consequence, our results shows that the complexity of random-circuit sampling under realistic noise is still an open question, since anticoncentration is a critical property exploited by both state-of-the-art classical hardness and easiness results. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗

Simple effective conservative treatment of uncertainty from sparse samples of random functions

This paper examines the variability of predicted responses when multiple stress-strain curves (reflecting variability from replicate material tests) are propagated through a finite element model of a ductile steel can being slowly crushed. Over 140 response quantities of interest (including displacements, stresses, strains, and calculated measures of material damage) are tracked in the simulations. Each response quantity’s behavior varies according to the particular stress-strain curves used for the materials in the model. We desire to estimate response variability when only a few stress-strain curve samples are available from material testing. Propagation of just a few samples will usually result in significantly underestimated response uncertainty relative to propagation of a much larger population that adequately samples the presiding random-function source. A simple classical statistical method, Tolerance Intervals, is tested for effectively treating sparse stress-strain curve data. The method is found to perform well on the highly nonlinear input-to-output response mappings and non-standard response distributions in the can-crush problem. The results and discussion in this paper support a proposition that the method will apply similarly well for other sparsely sampled random variable or function data, whether from experiments or models. Finally, the simple Tolerance Interval method is also demonstrated to be very economical.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Comparison of theory with the experimental characterization of the spatial frequency response of interferometers using a binary pseudo-random array sample

Experimental evaluations of the surface height response of an interference microscope using a binary pseudo-random array test sample are compared with a theory based on a Fourier optics model. Measurements of key instrument characteristics, including the illumination, imaging, and obscuring apertures of three different Mirau objectives, support the theoretical calculations. Agreement between experimental and theoretical modeling confirms the predictability of the spatial frequency response for the purpose of specification and optimization of instrument configuration for specific metrology tasks. The results also provide confidence in methods of compensating for the decrease in instrument response with spatial frequency.

Calibration↗

Investigating the ecological fallacy through sampling distributions constructed from finite populations

Correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed from group averages can differ from correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed using individual scores. This observation known as the ecological fallacy often assumes that all the individual scores are available from a population. In many situations, one must use a sample from the larger population. In such cases, the computed correlation coefficient and linear regression values will depend on the sample that is chosen and the underlying sampling distribution. The sampling distribution of correlation coefficients and linear regression values for group averages will be identical to the sampling distribution for individuals for normally distributed variables for random samples drawn from infinitely large continuous distributions. However, data that is acquired in practice is often acquired when sampling without replacement from a finite population. Our objective is to demonstrate through Monte Carlo simulations that the sampling distributions for correlation and linear regression will also be similar for individuals and group averages when sampling without replacement from normally distributed variables. These simulations suggest that when a random sample from a population is selected, the correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed from individual scores will not be more accurate in estimating the entire population values compared to samples when group averages are used as long as the sample size is the same.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bootstrapping outperforms community‐weighted approaches for estimating the shapes of phenotypic distributions

Abstract Estimating phenotypic distributions of populations and communities is central to many questions in ecology and evolution. These distributions can be characterized by their moments (mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis) or diversity metrics (e.g. functional richness). Typically, such moments and metrics are calculated using community‐weighted approaches (e.g. abundance‐weighted mean). We propose an alternative bootstrapping approach that allows flexibility in trait sampling and explicit incorporation of intraspecific variation, and show that this approach significantly improves estimation while allowing us to quantify uncertainty. We assess the performance of different approaches for estimating the moments of trait distributions across various sampling scenarios, taxa and datasets by comparing estimates derived from simulated samples with the true values calculated from full datasets. Simulations differ in sampling intensity (individuals per species), sampling biases (abundance, size), trait data source (local vs. global) and estimation method (two types of community‐weighting, two types of bootstrapping). We introduce the traitstrap R package, which contains a modular and extensible set of bootstrapping and weighted‐averaging functions that use community composition and trait data to estimate the moments of community trait distributions with their uncertainty. Importantly, the first function in the workflow, trait_fill , allows the user to specify hierarchical structures (e.g. plot within site, experiment vs. control, species within genus) to assign trait values to each taxon in each community sample. Across all taxa, simulations and metrics, bootstrapping approaches were more accurate and less biased than community‐weighted approaches. With bootstrapping, a sample size of 9 or more measurements per species per trait generally included the true mean within the 95% CI. It reduced average percent errors by 26%–74% relative to community‐weighting. Random sampling across all species outperformed both size‐ and abundance‐biased sampling. Our results suggest randomly sampling ~9 individuals per sampling unit and species, covering all species in the community and analysing the data using nonparametric bootstrapping generally enable reliable inference on trait distributions, including the central moments, of communities. By providing better estimates of community trait distributions, bootstrapping approaches can improve our ability to link traits to both the processes that generate them and their effects on ecosystems.

Maitner, Brian S.↗

Vehicle energy consumption estimation using large scale simulations and machine learning methods

Vehicle energy consumption and powertrain operations for future vehicle powertrain technologies are predicted through full-vehicle simulations using Autonomie, a simulation tool developed at Argonne National Laboratory. Over 1 million vehicles, with different powertrain types (conventional and numerous electrified powertrains) and component technologies (advanced engines, batteries, electrical machines, light weighting) are simulated for outputs including vehicle fuel economy and cost. Despite the ability of Autonomic to predict fuel economy given various combination of vehicle inputs, the full-vehicle simulation is very time-consuming. It takes approximately 84 h to simulate for 33,060 vehicles even using distributed computing on a cluster of 128 worker nodes. Moreover, Autonomic is unable to populate a continuous output space through simulation since it only yields outputs with discrete values instead of an input-output relation. This paper proposes a novel large-scale learning and prediction process (LSLPP) via machine learning approaches to answer the need for a continuous space of vehicle fuel economy and a more efficient simulation process. By learning in a supervised fashion to discover structures in data, the machine learning approaches seek to train a model that can explain the data with which we can perform prediction over unseen data. As such, we are able to accomplish analytic continuation on the current discrete space of simulation results. In addition, we present a random sampling -based numerosity reduction algorithm incorporated in LSLPP that reduces simulation runs and improves efficiency of data procurement. We analytically derive a theoretical bound in order to guarantee the effectiveness of our algorithm. We also compare random sampling to stratified sampling and suggest sampling strategies. A user-friendly tool is developed to support the process. Our experimental results confirm that the proposed LSLPP is able to greatly accelerate prediction and analysis of vehicle fuel economy. The output of this study is used by the US government to evaluate the impact of its R&D funding on energy security and CO 2 emission as well as for the setting of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Quantifying uncertainty in uranium concentration measurements via K-edge densitometry

This study quantifies the uncertainty in uranium concentration predictions of fluoride and chloride-based salts within a steel pipe using K-edge densitometry. Modeling and simulation was conducted with the Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport (MCNP) code. The quality of of this technique’s prediction in a pipe requires proper characterization of the pipe’s thickness, which is dependent on the source size and axial offset from the pipe centerline. The thickness was determined as either the center-line thickness seen by the X-ray source or an average value determined through random sampling. Generally, the predicted concentrations were slightly better at lower offset with the random sampling thickness and using the center-line thickness for the highest offsets. For a line-beam source and varying axial offsets, the relative error of concentration was within 1% of the true value but uncertainty increased by 2 orders of magnitude. Similarly, for no axial offset, the relative error was significantly less than 1% while no trend for uncertainty was found. However, at the largest possible offset for a given source size, the concentrations become erroneous and greater than the allowable 1% relative error. Furthermore, high offsets tended to increase the variance of the transmission spectra by 3 orders of magnitude.

Characterization and Analytical Technique↗

Iterative self-organizing SCEne-LEvel sampling (ISOSCELES) for large-scale building extraction

Convolutional neural networks (CNN) provide state-of-the-art performance in many computer vision tasks, including those related to remote-sensing image analysis. Successfully training a CNN to generalize well to unseen data, however, requires training on samples that represent the full distribution of variation of both the target classes and their surrounding contexts. With remote sensing data, acquiring a sufficiently representative training set is a challenge due to both the inherent multi-modal variability of satellite or aerial imagery and the general high cost of labeling data. To address this challenge, we have developed ISOSCELES, an Iterative Self-Organizing SCEne LEvel Sampling method for hierarchical sampling of large image sets. Using affinity propagation, ISOSCELES automates the selection of highly representative training images. Compared to random sampling or using available reference data, the distribution of the training is principally data driven, reducing the chance of oversampling uninformative areas or undersampling informative ones. In comparison to manual sample selection by an analyst, ISOSCELES exploits descriptive features, spectral and/or textural, and eliminates human bias in sample selection. Using a hierarchical sampling approach, ISOSCELES can obtain a training set that reflects both between-scene variability, such as in viewing angle and time of day, and within-scene variability at the level of individual training samples. We verify the method by demonstrating its superiority to stratified random sampling in the challenging task of adapting a pre-trained model to a new image and spatial domain for country-scale building extraction. Using a pair of hand-labeled training sets comprising 1,987 sample image chips, a total of 496,000,000 individually labeled pixels, we show, across three distinct model architectures, an increase in accuracy, as measured by F1-score, of 2.2–4.2%.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Active Learning‐Driven Inkless Additive Nanomanufacturing for Printed Electronics

Inkless additive nanomanufacturing for printed electronics promises broad material and substrate versatility, yet the high-dimensional print parameter space makes tuning print parameters time-intensive. We present a Bayesian optimization study that constructs a digital twin from printed-silver data to benchmark surrogate models, acquisition functions, and batch sizes head-to-head to achieve user-specified target resistance. Tested surrogate models included Gaussian process, random forest, and Bayesian neural network surrogates with expected improvement and confidence bound acquisition functions. In total, we evaluate 48 unique model configurations alongside a random sampling baseline for comparison. For printed silver, the Bayesian neural network with a batch size of one achieved the lowest average cumulative regret, approximately four times more efficient on average than random sampling. To balance performance and substrate space, a random forest model with expected improvement and a batch size of four was chosen as the model for validation testing. Applying this chosen configuration to copper with an additional print parameter, the model achieved a resistance within 0.15 Ω of a 1 Ω target in fewer than 30 printed lines across five validation sets. Altogether, the workflow yields a tuned and validated model that efficiently guides experiments toward the target while simultaneously learning the parameter space.

Bevel, Colton [Auburn University, AL (United State↗

Scalable Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition Using Random Kernel Approximation

The Koopman operator is a linear, infinite-dimensional operator that governs the dynamics of system observables; extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD) is a data-driven method for approximating the Koopman operator using functions (features) of the system state snapshots. This paper investigates an approach to EDMD in which the features used provide random approximations to a particular kernel function. The objective of this is computational economy for large data sets: EDMD is generally ill-suited for problems with large state dimension, and its dual kernel formulation (KDMD) is well-suited for such problems only if the number of data snapshots is relatively small. We discuss two specific methods for generating features: random Fourier features and the Nÿstrom method. The first method is a data-independent method for translation-invariant kernels only and involves random sampling in feature space; the second method is a data-dependent empirical method that may be used for any kernel and involves random sampling of data. We first discuss how these ideas may be applied in an EDMD context, as well as a means for adaptively adding random Fourier features. As a result, we demonstrate these methods on two example problems and conclude with an analysis of the relative benefits and drawbacks of each method.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Radiation Transport in Random Media With Large Fluctuations

Strongly heterogeneous media arise in several applications that include radiation shields, nuclear fuel, BWR moderators, clouds, planetary and stellar atmospheres, turbulent gases and plasmas. Neutral and charged particle transport computations in such media have relied heavily on formulating transport equations with spatially random coefficients (physical data) and developing solution methods to deal with the additional stochastic dimensions. Attempts at developing approximate closures that yield only low order statistical information (e.g., mean and variance of the flux) have proved to be highly restrictive under real physics conditions or rely on techniques that require fluctuation amplitudes to be small for robustness. Recently, stochastic spectral methods such as polynomial chaos and stochastic collocation have been developed for aleatoric uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis, and successfully applied in radiation transport work. Advances in UQ techniques have tended to focus on efficiently handling large numbers of uncertain variables but the rigorous stochastic basis of the approach also promotes its use in situations where stochasticity is due to spatial heterogeneity and the associated uncertainty is large. Here we apply these techniques to radiation transport in media with spatially randomly varying cross sections without restriction on fluctuation amplitudes. Specifically, we represent the cross sections as a lognormal spatial random process with specified mean, variance and covariance function and use a Karhunen-Loeve (KL) decomposition to generate cross section realizations that are strictly positive. Woodcock Monte Carlo (WMC) is then used to simulate transport using random sampling of cross sections and deterministic sampling based on a stochastic collocation technique. Numerical results for the mean and variance in the scalar flux and leakage currents are obtained for weak and strong random variations. We focus in this work on demonstrating the approach and defer application to specific problems to a future investigation. We have demonstrated that a combination of stochastic spectral representation and Woodcock Monte Carlo simulation allows efficient computation of radiation transport in strongly random media. The use of a lognormal distribution to represent the fluctuations in medium properties facilitates enforcement of strict positivity of cross section realizations, a condition that has challenged standard approaches that assume Gaussian fluctuations. The fact that the lognormal random process is a memoryless nonlinear transformation of a Gaussian process further enables efficient and accurate reconstruction of the random cross section realizations using a Karhunen-Loeve representation of the cross section. Finally, the robustness of this model enables fluctuations of arbitrarily large amplitude to be studied, using both random sampling Monte Carlo and more efficient stochastic collocation techniques. The present work is being extended to allow reconstruction of probability density functions of output variables using polynomial chaos representation, and to accommodate general cross section covariance functions. Also, techniques are being explored to more judiciously select ceiling cross sections to enhance the efficiency of Woodcock Monte Carlo for transport in random media. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Estimating the Adequacy of a Multi-Objective Optimization

Multi-objective optimization methods can be criticized for lacking a statistically valid measure of the quality and representativeness of a solution. This stance is especially relevant to metaheuristic optimization approaches but can also apply to other methods that typically might only report a small representative subset of a Pareto frontier. Here we present a method to address this deficiency based on random sampling of a solution space to determine, with a specified level of confidence, the fraction of the solution space that is surpassed by an optimization. The Superiority of Multi-Objective Optimization to Random Sampling, or SMORS method, can evaluate quality and representativeness using dominance or other measures, e.g., a spacing measure for high-dimensional spaces. SMORS has been tested in a combinatorial optimization context using a genetic algorithm but could be useful for other optimization methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗