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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2

To what extent can decommissioning options for marine artificial structures move us toward environmental targets?

Switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy is key to international energy transition efforts and the move toward net zero. For many nations, this requires decommissioning of hundreds of oil and gas infrastructure in the marine environment. Current international, regional and national legislation largely dictates that structures must be completely removed at end-of-life although, increasingly, alternative decommissioning options are being promoted and implemented. Yet, a paucity of real-world case studies describing the impacts of decommissioning on the environment make decision-making with respect to which option(s) might be optimal for meeting international and regional strategic environmental targets challenging. To address this gap, we draw together international expertise and judgment from marine environmental scientists on marine artificial structures as an alternative source of evidence that explores how different decommissioning options might ameliorate pressures that drive environmental status toward (or away) from environmental objectives. Synthesis reveals that for 37 United Nations and Oslo-Paris Commissions (OSPAR) global and regional environmental targets, experts consider repurposing or abandoning individual structures, or abandoning multiple structures across a region, as the options that would most strongly contribute toward targets. This collective view suggests complete removal may not be best for the environment or society. However, different decommissioning options act in different ways and make variable contributions toward environmental targets, such that policy makers and managers would likely need to prioritise some targets over others considering political, social, economic, and ecological contexts. Current policy may not result in optimal outcomes for the environment or society.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mantle Metasomatism in Mars: Evidence from Bulk Chemical Compositions of Martian Basalts

Bulk compositions of martian meteorite basalts suggest that they formed from a highly depleted mantle that was variably metasomatised and enriched in incompatible elements. These results are consistent with radio-isotope results. Bulk chemical compositions of basaltic rocks retain clues and tracers to their origins and histories. Interpretations of bulk compositions are not so straight-forward as once envisioned, because real-world magmatic processes can be far from theoretical simple models like one-stage partial melting or closed-system fractional crystallization. Yet, bulk chemistry can shed a broad (if dim) light on Martian basalt petrogenesis that complements the sharply focussed illumination of radio-isotope systematics.

Treiman, A. H.↗

Tracking with the mind's eye

The two components of voluntary tracking eye-movements in primates, pursuit and saccades, are generally viewed as relatively independent oculomotor subsystems that move the eyes in different ways using independent visual information. Although saccades have long been known to be guided by visual processes related to perception and cognition, only recently have psychophysical and physiological studies provided compelling evidence that pursuit is also guided by such higher-order visual processes, rather than by the raw retinal stimulus. Pursuit and saccades also do not appear to be entirely independent anatomical systems, but involve overlapping neural mechanisms that might be important for coordinating these two types of eye movement during the tracking of a selected visual object. Given that the recovery of objects from real-world images is inherently ambiguous, guiding both pursuit and saccades with perception could represent an explicit strategy for ensuring that these two motor actions are driven by a single visual interpretation.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

A Taxonomy of Fallacies in System Safety Arguments

Safety cases are gaining acceptance as assurance vehicles for safety-related systems. A safety case documents the evidence and argument that a system is safe to operate; however, logical fallacies in the underlying argument may undermine a system s safety claims. Removing these fallacies is essential to reduce the risk of safety-related system failure. We present a taxonomy of common fallacies in safety arguments that is intended to assist safety professionals in avoiding and detecting fallacious reasoning in the arguments they develop and review. The taxonomy derives from a survey of general argument fallacies and a separate survey of fallacies in real-world safety arguments. Our taxonomy is specific to safety argumentation, and it is targeted at professionals who work with safety arguments but may lack formal training in logic or argumentation. We discuss the rationale for the selection and categorization of fallacies in the taxonomy. In addition to its applications to the development and review of safety cases, our taxonomy could also support the analysis of system failures and promote the development of more robust safety case patterns.

Greenwell, William S.↗

Analyzing spacecraft configurations through specialization and default reasoning

For an intelligent system to describe a real-world situation using as few statements as possible, it is necessary to make inferences based on observed data and to incorporate general knowledge of the reasoning domain into the description. These reasoning processes must reduce several levels of specific descriptions into only those few that most precisely describe the situation. Moreover, the system must be able to generate descriptions in the absence of data, as instructed by certain rules of inference. The deductions applied by the system, then, generate a high-level description from the low-level evidence provided by the real and default data sources. An implementation of these ideas in a real-world situation is described. The application concerns evaluation of Space Shuttle electromechanical system configurations by console operators in the Mission Control Center. A production system provides the reasoning mechanism through which the default assignments and specializations occur. Examples are provided within this domain for each type of inference, and the suitability is discussed of each toward achieving the goal of describing a situation in the fewest statements possible. Finally, several enhancements are suggested that will further increase the intelligence of similar spacecraft monitoring applications.

Barry, Matthew R.↗

Rapid Oxidation of Uranium Steel Alloys: Combustion Synthesis

This project explored the use of combustion synthesis as a rapid, high-temperature method for oxidizing uranium-bearing steel alloys. Traditional laboratory-scale synthesis methods often fail to replicate the thermal and kinetic conditions experienced by real-world particulates, particularly those formed under rapid quenching or high-temperature scenarios. Combustion synthesis offers a promising alternative by enabling fast, localized heating and flexible precursor selection. A series of targeted experiments were conducted using a U 2 NiCrFe 4 alloy as the precursor. The alloy was oxidized using combustion synthesis reactions fueled by uranyl nitrate and glycine, achieving peak temperatures exceeding 1,200 °C. Postreaction analysis using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), elemental mapping, and Raman spectroscopy revealed the formation of iron-based oxides, with limited but detectable evidence of uranium oxide phases such as UO 2 . The results indicate that under the rapid reaction and cooling conditions of combustion synthesis, iron oxides form preferentially, but uranium oxide formation is kinetically limited. These findings validate combustion synthesis as a viable method for simulating the oxidation behavior of uranium steels in extreme environments and lay the groundwork for future studies aimed at enhancing uranium oxide formation through higher temperatures or modified precursor compositions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Flexible Ramping Product Procurement in Day-Ahead Markets

Flexible ramping products (FRPs) emerge as a promising instrument for addressing steep and uncertain ramping needs through market mechanisms. Initial implementations of FRPs in North American electricity markets, however, revealed several shortcomings in existing FRP designs. Here, in many instances, FRP prices failed to signal the true value of ramping capacity, most notably evident in zero FRP prices observed in a myriad of periods during which the system was in acute need for rampable capacity. These periods were marked by scheduled but undeliverable FRPs, often calling for operator out-of-market actions. On top of that, the methods used for procuring FRPs have been primarily rule-based, lacking explicit economic underpinnings. In this paper, we put forth an alternative framework for FRP procurement, which seeks to set FRP requirements and schedule FRP awards such that the expected system operation cost is minimized. Using real-world data from U.S. ISOs, we showcase the relative merits of the framework in (i) reducing the total system operation cost, (ii) improving price formation, (iii) enhancing the the deliverability of FRP awards, and (iv) reducing the need for out-of-market actions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting with Constrained Regressors

The volatility of electricity price presents a challenge to market participants as their decision-making process are highly depend on the accuracy of price forecasts. However, there is growing empirical evidence of increasing price volatility and price spikes in electricity markets as a result of variable renewable energy generation, extreme weather events, and other factors. The distribution shift caused by spikes in electricity price data differentiates the forecasting tasks from other renewable energy sources. Moreover, the observations may be compromised by cyberattacks and thus not available in the testing phase. To this end, we propose a Similarity-Enhanced Electricity Decomposition Forecasting model (SEED-Forecaster) to address the missing response problem and spikes capturing in short-term electricity price forecasting. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is tested on real-world electricity price data from California Independent System Operator (CAISO). Numerical results of case studies show that the proposed SEED-Forecsater can enhance forecasting performance, particularly in capturing electricity spikes, even under conditions without regressors during testing stage.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Caught in headlights: Captive white-tailed deer responses to variations in vehicle lighting during imminent collision scenarios

Vehicle collisions with deer (Odocoileus spp.) cause billions of dollars in damages and injure thousands of drivers every year in the United States, and few mitigation methods have proven effective. However, recent research suggests that vehicle lighting might influence white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus; hereafter, deer) responses to oncoming vehicles. Most new vehicles are manufactured with light emitting diode (LED) headlights which differ in total radiance and wavelength of light emitted compared to the previous industry standard of tungstenhalogen (halogen) headlights. Also, frontal vehicle illumination through rear-facing lighting has shown promise in enhancing deer responses to vehicles, but its effectiveness has not been tested under various headlight conditions (headlight type or intensity). As such, it remains unclear how these aspects of vehicle lighting affect deer responses to an approaching vehicle. We used 23 captive, wild-type deer to investigate how variations in vehicle lighting affect deer responses to an approaching vehicle at night, when most collisions occur. We released deer into a 95 m long, 3 m wide chute and approached them from the opposite end with an electric golf cart outfitted with two versions of stock 2017–2020 Ford Fusion headlights (LED and halogen) and a 51 cm rear-facing lightbar to test how vehicle lighting affected deer avoidance behaviors in an imminent, head-on collision scenario. Each deer received eight lighting treatments consisting of unique combinations of headlight type (LED vs. halogen), light intensity (low vs. high beam), and rear-facing lighting (lightbar off vs. on). We measured deer alert and flight behavior using infrared videography. We found that the halogen, high beam, lightbar off treatment had the greatest probability of evoking an alert response. Furthermore, when the lightbar was off, high beams appeared to increase alert probability for halogen headlights. Also, we found evidence that high beam, halogen headlights tend to increase alert probability over high beam, LED headlights, when the lighbar was off. We found no effect of our lighting treatments on deer alert distance, flight probability, or flight initiation distance. Across all behavioral responses, the random effect deer ID explained 0.86–9.19 × more variation than our lighting treatments, reflecting large differences in responses among deer. Overall, we found that vehicle lighting can impact deer behavior during an imminent, head-on collision scenario, although lighting was ineffective at increasing favorable flight behaviors. Future research should investigate how vehicle lighting treatments affect free-ranging, wild deer in a variety of real-world scenarios and at longer approach distances.

White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) Deer be↗

Rapid biodegradation of microplastics generated from bio-based thermoplastic polyurethane

The accumulation of microplastics in various ecosystems has now been well documented and recent evidence suggests detrimental effects on various biological processes due to this pollution. Accumulation of microplastics in the natural environment is ultimately due to the chemical nature of widely used petroleum-based plastic polymers, which typically are inaccessible to biological processing. One way to mitigate this crisis is adoption of plastics that biodegrade if released into natural environments. In this work, we generated microplastic particles from a bio-based, biodegradable thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU-FC1) and demonstrated their rapid biodegradation via direct visualization and respirometry. Furthermore, we isolated multiple bacterial strains capable of using TPU-FC1 as a sole carbon source and characterized their depolymerization products. Finally, to visualize biodegradation of TPU materials as real-world products, we generated TPU-coated cotton fabric and an injection molded phone case and documented biodegradation by direct visualization and scanning electron microscopy (SEM), both of which indicated clear structural degradation of these materials and significant biofilm formation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Interplanetary Transit Simulations Using the International Space Station

We evaluated the space life sciences utility of the International Space Station (ISS) to simulate the outbound transit portion of missions to Mars and Near Earth Asteroids (NEA) to investigate biomedical and psychological aspects of such transits, to develop and test space operation procedures compatible with communication delays and outages, and to demonstrate and validate technologies and countermeasures. Two major categories of space life sciences activities can capitalize on ISS capabilities. The first includes studies that require ISS (or a comparable facility), typically for access to prolonged weightlessness. The second includes studies that do not strictly require ISS but can exploit it to maximize their scientific return more efficiently and productively than in ground-based simulations. For these studies, ISS offers a high fidelity analog for fundamental factors on future missions, such as crew composition, mission control personnel, operational tasks and workload, real-world risk, and isolation, and can mimic the effects of distance and limited accessibility. In addition to conducting Mars- and NEA-transit simulations on 6-month ISS increments, extending the current ISS increment duration from 6 months to 9 or even 12 months will provide opportunities for enhanced and focused research relevant to long duration Mars and NEA missions. Increasing the crew duration may pose little additional risk to crewmembers beyond that currently accepted on 6-month increments, but additional medical monitoring capabilities will be required beyond those currently used for ISS operations. Finally, while presenting major logistical challenges, such a simulation followed by a post-landing simulation of Mars exploration could provide quantitative evidence of capabilities in an actual mission. Thus, the use of ISS to simulate aspects of Mars and NEA missions seems practical. If it were to be implemented without major disruption of on-going ISS activities, then planning should begin soon, in close consultation with all international partners.

Charles, John B.↗

Wildfire Segmentation From Remotely Sensed Data Using Quantum-Compatible Conditional Vector Quantized-Variational Autoencoders

Wildfires represent a critical environmental hazard with multifaceted implications for ecosystems, communities, and public health [1]. The escalating frequency and intensity of wildfires globally have intensified the urgency for robust segmentation methodologies to facilitate effective mitigation, response, and recovery strategies [2]. Accurate wildfire segmentation is pivotal for delineating fire boundaries, assessing progression patterns, and prioritizing resource allocation during emergency scenarios. Furthermore, precise segmentation enables stakeholders, including policymakers, environmental scientists, and emergency responders, to formulate evidence-based strategies, thereby minimizing socio-economic disruptions and ecological degradation. Consequently, advancing wildfire segmentation techniques through innovative technological interventions remains a paramount research imperative. Although foundational in wildfire segmentation, traditional deterministic models exhibit inherent limitations that compromise their efficacy in dynamic and uncertain environments. These models often operate on rigid algorithms prioritizing deterministic classifications, thereby overlooking the inherent complexities and uncertainties associated with wildfire behavior and satellite data variability. Such deterministic frameworks tend to produce oversimplified representations that fail to capture the intricate nuances of evolving fire dynamics, spatial heterogeneity, and environmental interactions [1]. Consequently, the deterministic approach’s propensity for uncertainty collapsing [1, 3] hampers the accuracy, reliability, and applicability of segmentation outcomes in real-world scenarios. Contrastingly, stochastic models offer a more nuanced and adaptable framework for wildfire segmentation. By integrating probabilistic elements into the modeling paradigm, stochastic approaches, particularly probabilistic approaches such as variational auto encoders (VAEs) [4], facilitate comprehensive uncertainty assessment, enabling researchers to quantify and incorporate uncertainties into segmentation outcomes effectively. This probabilistic nature empowers stochastic models to encapsulate variability, account for data inconsistencies, and adapt to evolving environmental conditions, enhancing segmentation accuracy, reliability, and robustness. Embracing stochastic methodologies thus catalyzes advancements in wildfire science by fostering a more holistic, adaptive, and resilient segmentation framework. Despite VAEs demonstrating significant promise in various applications, they come with inherent limitations that have garnered attention within the machine learning community. One of the primary drawbacks lies in their reliance on static priors, which essentially assume a fixed distribution for latent variables, thereby limiting the model’s flexibility to capture complex data structures effectively [5]. This static nature leads to suboptimal representations, especially when dealing with complex and high-dimensional data. Additionally, VAEs often struggle with generating sharp and realistic samples, a phenomenon commonly referred to as mode collapse [5, 7, 6]. Furthermore, the optimization process in VAEs, which involves balancing the reconstruction loss and the regularization term, can sometimes be challenging to fine-tune [7]. In recent efforts to address these shortcomings, alternative approaches like Vector Quantized Variational Auto encoders(VQ-VAEs) [7], address the challenges by incorporating discrete latent variables and leveraging techniques that enhance the quality and diversity of generated samples while maintaining efficient training dynamics. VQ-VAEs propose a dynamic prior distribution generation mechanism that diverges from the static priors commonly associated with traditional VAEs. This dynamic approach allows for more adaptive and context-aware latent variable representations, thereby potentially capturing complex data structures more effectively. Unlike autoregressive prior models such as PixelCNN, which, despite their ability to model dependencies across data dimensions, suffer from significant computational inefficiencies and lack flexibility in handling diverse datasets. In our work, we propose to use a generative quantum-compatible approach to help alleviate the shortcomings of autoregressive prior model in VQ-VAEs. Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) are a viable alternative prior model that can learn prior distributions in a faster and more flexible manner. In this research endeavor, we meticulously curate a state-of-the-art dataset leveraging satellite MODIS data in conjunction with VIIRS fire masks, derived from Fire Radiative Power (FRP), thereby encapsulating diverse wildfire scenarios and environmental contexts. We developed a conditional VQ-VAE architecture with the RBM prior model that is trained in a supervised manner for segmenting wildfire masks. This innovative approach synergistically harnesses deep learning capabilities, enabling the generation of segmentation maps characterized by heightened precision, granularity, and contextual relevance. Furthermore, replacing the autoregressive prior learning method proposed by the original VQ-VAE with a prior density approximation via quantum-compatible RBM facilitates expedited inference processes, augments flexibility in prior sampling, optimizes computational efficiency and establishes a groundbreaking benchmark in wildfire segmentation methodologies.

quantum machine learning↗

Enhanced Safety of Heavy-Duty Vehicles on Highways through Automatic Speed Enforcement – A Simulation Study

Highway safety remains a significant concern, especially in mixed traffic scenarios involving heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) and smaller passenger cars. The vulnerability of HDVs following closely behind smaller cars is evident in incidents involving the lead vehicle, potentially leading to catastrophic rear-end collisions. Here, this paper explores how automatic speed enforcement systems, using speed cameras, can mitigate risks for HDVs in such critical situations. While historical crash data consistently demonstrates the reduction of accidents near speed cameras, this paper goes beyond the conventional notion of crash occurrence reduction. Instead, it investigates the profound impact of driver behavior changes within desired travel speed distribution, especially around speed cameras, and their contribution to the safety of trailing vehicles, with a specific focus on heavy-duty trucks in accident-prone scenarios. To conduct this analysis, we utilize SUMO, an open-source microscopic traffic simulator, enabling realistic simulations of real-world driving behaviors with and without speed cameras. The simulations also consider empirical distributions of desired headway gaps and reaction times exhibited by human drivers. This study offers a fresh perspective on highway safety by examining how the influence of automatic speed enforcement systems on driver behavior enhances the safety of HDV when faced with challenging situations. By shedding light on these dynamics, we contribute valuable insights to the ongoing research efforts on using technology to create safer roadways, ultimately promoting safer coexistence between heavy-duty and passenger vehicles.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Electrochemical Characterization of Dissolved Oxides in Molten FLiNaK

Molten fluoride salts have long been the subject of investigation given their application in a variety of industrial processes. Oxides are a common exogeneous impurity within these systems, and can lead to many operational and regulatory concerns. In recent studies, the electro-oxidation of dissolved metallic oxides has been attributed to a single step oxygen evolution reaction despite voltametric evidence suggesting otherwise. Here, we first use square wave voltammetry to confirm that the oxidation of dissolved oxides in fluorides proceeds via a two-electron transfer reaction and then demonstrate that the presence of a peroxide-mediated redox reaction better explains the electrochemical data. Numerical simulations were then used to support the determination of improved diffusion coefficients to enable electroanalytical measurements of the oxide concentration across at a variety of temperatures. A linear Arrhenius relationship was observed when the experimental data was corrected for ohmic resistance effects. Concentration measurements using the corrected square wave voltammetry data demonstrated high accuracy across a large range of concentrations, while the uncorrected data showed plateauing and high errors. In total, this work serves to rectify previously misconstrued electrochemical data of oxides in molten salts and demonstrate how accurate, in situ concentration measurements can be achieved in real-world systems.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Objective Structured Clinical Evaluation (OSCE) of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) Tool

BACKGROUND Objective Structured Clinical Evaluations (OSCEs) have long been established as a robust methodology for summative assessment of clinical skills and decision-making during medical education. The recent integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into clinical decision-making processes has prompted the need for novel evaluation frameworks to assess the efficacy and reliability of AI clinical decision support system (CDSS) tools. This abstract outlines the process of quantitatively evaluating a novel CDSS (“Doc in a Box” Google 2024) trained on curated medical spaceflight data in the psychomotor domain as it interfaces with a human volunteer acting as the crew medical officer (CMO). PURPOSE The AI CDSS under review was developed as part of the Lunar Command and Control Interoperability (LuCCI) project, which is intended to address a gap in how Lunar Surface Systems (LSS) would interoperate across multiple programs, commercial partners, and international partners. The project objective is to define, prototype, integrate, and evaluate an interoperable lunar command, control, data, and software reference architecture to enable autonomy and informatics capability through common standards across LSS. A multi-modal AI-based CDSS compatible with Federated LSS will assist clinicians in diagnosing and managing complex medical conditions by providing evidence-based recommendations through predictive analytics. Given the critical role of decision-support as NASA continues to evolve its Earth-independent medical operations (EIMO), it is imperative to ensure that such AI tools perform reliably and align with clinical standards during progressive lunar and Martian exploration class missions. METHODS The OSCE framework, traditionally used for evaluating human clinicians, was adapted to assess the AI tool's decision-making capabilities in simulated clinical scenarios. In this adapted OSCE, the AI CDSS was tested across a series of structured clinical scenarios designed to mimic real-life spaceflight patient cases. These scenarios included a range of conditions and complexities, allowing for comprehensive assessment of the tool's performance. Key evaluation metrics included accuracy of diagnosis, timeliness of decision-making, and appropriate recommendations for therapies. The OSCE was scored by human physician evaluators who assessed the AI's recommendations in comparison with expert clinicians' medical decision making to ensure alignment with best practices and the standard of care. RESULTS Preliminary results indicate that the AI CDSS demonstrated high accuracy in diagnostic recommendations and decision support across various scenarios. However, certain limitations were noted, such as occasional discrepancies in handling complex or nuanced cases that required a more contextual understanding. Additionally, the tool scored higher on the diagnostic portion of the rubric, with lower scores in the therapeutic recommendations. These findings highlight the importance of continuous refinement and validation of AI tools through rigorous evaluation frameworks like the OSCE. The adaptation of OSCEs for AI tools presents several advantages, including a structured and reproducible approach to evaluation, the ability to test AI systems in diverse clinical scenarios, and the opportunity to benchmark AI performance against established clinical standards to permit charting of future progress as aerospace medicine evolves as a discipline. Remaining challenges include ensuring that these evaluations capture the full spectrum of clinical decision-making scenarios that will be confronted by CMOs during missions and adequately reflecting real-world variability of the austere spaceflight environment. CONCLUSION Employing OSCEs to evaluate AI clinical decision support tools offers a promising approach to validating their clinical utility and efficacy. This methodology not only provides insights into the tool's performance but also fosters ongoing improvement and alignment with standard of care practices. Future research should focus on refining these evaluation processes and addressing limitations to enhance the integration of AI tools in clinical spaceflight settings. REFERENCES Scott S, Hearns V, Barker MA. Testing Clinical Skills: A Look at the OSCE and USMLE Clinical Skills Exams. S D Med. 2019 Oct;72(10):451-453. Majumder MAA, Kumar A, Krishnamurthy K, Ojeh N, Adams OP, Sa B. An evaluative study of objective structured clinical examination (OSCE): students and examiners perspectives. Adv Med Educ Pract. 2019 Jun 5;10:387-397. Karam VY, Park YS, Tekian A, Youssef N. Evaluating the validity evidence of an OSCE: results from a new medical school. BMC Med Educ. 2018 Dec 20;18(1):313.

Ariana M Nelson↗

A comprehensive academic and industrial survey of blockchain technology for the energy sector using fuzzy Einstein decision-making

The global energy sector is undergoing a significant transformation driven by decarbonization and digitalization, leading to the emergence of Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) — particularly blockchain — as a promising tool for enhancing transparency, security, and efficiency in modern power systems. This study aims to provide a comprehensive academic and industrial survey of blockchain applications in the energy sector and develop a robust decision-making framework to identify and prioritize the most promising real-world use cases based on multidisciplinary criteria. A three-stage methodology was adopted: (i) a literature and market review encompassing over 300 academic publications and commercial blockchain initiatives in energy, (ii) an in-depth evaluation of the evolution and viability of blockchain initiatives in energy with the help of expert surveys, and (iii) a novel decision-making model using a q-rung orthopair fuzzy Multi-Attributive Border Approximation (q-ROF-MABAC) method under the Einstein operator. The results were compared with existing decision models to validate consistency and robustness. Nine key blockchain use case categories were identified and ranked based on technical, economic, and governance dimensions. The results demonstrated that integrating expert insights into a fuzzy logic framework helps filter out overhyped claims in the literature and prioritize realistic and high-impact applications such as green certificates, grid services, and peer-to-peer energy trading. The model’s rankings remained stable across varying weight configurations, confirming the robustness of the methodology. This study provides an evidence-based decision-support tool for researchers, industry stakeholders, and policymakers to better understand, evaluate, and adopt blockchain technologies in the energy sector.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Global Explainability of A Deep Abstaining Classifier for Cancer Pathology Reports

We present a global explainability method to characterize sources of errors in a real-world multitask deep abstaining classifier (DAC), in the context of cancer histology prediction. Our multitask classifier, currently deployed for automated annotation of cancer pathology reports from NCI-SEER registries, was trained and evaluated on 1.04 million hand-annotated samples and makes simultaneous predictions of cancer site, subsite, histology, laterality, and behavior for each report. The DAC framework enables the model to abstain on ambiguous reports and confusing classes to achieve the target accuracy on the retained (non-abstained) samples, but at the cost of decreased coverage. Requiring 97% accuracy on the histology task caused our model to retain only 22% of all samples, mostly the less ambiguous and common classes. Local explainability with the GradInp technique provided a computationally efficient way of obtaining contextual reasoning for hundreds of thousands of individual predictions. Our method, involving dimensionality reduction of approximately 13000 aggregated local explanations (ALE), offers a tractable path to true global explainability. It enabled identification of sources of errors in histology classification, globally, as hierarchical complexity among classes, label noise, insufficient information, and conflicting evidence. This suggests several strategies for iterative improvement of our DAC, including well-designed exclusion criteria, focused annotation, and reduced penalties for errors involving hierarchically related classes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Improving the Fidelity of Capability & Resource Weighting in A Probalistic Risk Assessment Model for Spaceflight

INTRODUCTION NASA’s Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to provide an evidence-based, data-driven estimate of how medical system capabilities affect mission outcomes. IMPACT maps condition incidence to available resources thereby facilitating the calculation of outcome metrics that allow the estimation of mission medical risk. Conditions can be nominally categorized as either treated or untreated depending on the availability of necessary diagnostic and therapeutic capabilities. This categorization enables IMPACT to estimate the effect of various medical system configurations on mission outcomes such as crew mortality, disability, crew member down-time, return to duty/recovery, and need for evacuation. IMPACT currently employs an equal weighting, “partial credit” approach to define treatment in which each of the capabilities associated with a given condition contributes an equal amount to management of the condition. This feature enables IMPACT to report values in between “fully untreated” and “fully treated” based on the proportion of capabilities available within the model. However, as is normal in medical/clinical practice, not all individual capabilities contribute equally to medical care. For example, the ability to provide intramuscular epinephrine during an anaphylactic episode contributes more likelihood of overall management success than does the administration of oral diphenhydramine. We hypothesize that weighting the relative contribution of each capability to each specific condition will improve outcome prediction and therefore will better provide mission planners with more nuanced and accurate options when designing space medical systems. METHODS Using a five-point Fibonacci scaling sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8) subject matter experts from NASA’s Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) element assigned relative contribution weighting values to each identified capability within IMPACT. Since the relative importance of each capability varies depending on the specific condition, the resulting “partial” weighting was completed for more than 1,600 individual weighting assignments for 666 capabilities across 121 conditions. Each assignment required three-physician concurrence based on the overall importance of the capability to the diagnosis and management of the condition being considered and the difficulty with which it could be improvised by the crew. Once complete, 100,000 IMPACT simulations were run for a 6-month Lunar mission with a 30-day surface stay to evaluate the effect of this modification of the model. RESULTS Partial weighting significantly decreased predicted task time loss (TTL), evacuation, and loss of crew life without causing significant changes to the recommended medical system design. CONCLUSIONS The paucity of real-world referent data to support long-duration space missions of this type limits the ability to judge one predictive analytics method as superior to another. However, since the proposed method significantly reduces and optimizes outcome risks—without changing the medical system design—incorporating a partial weighting methodology is likely to provide a more accurate and operationally-relevant representation of medical risk without compromising IMPACTs ability to inform overarching medical system requirements.

Steller JG↗