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At least 37 records · Page 2

Performance of reanalysis and mesoscale models off the coast of Hawai'i

The eastern Hawai'i coast in the United States is characterized by considerable wind resource fuelled by persistent trade winds, making it an important area for energy research. The need is strong for reanalyses and higher-resolution regional simulations where observations have been historically limited, such as Hawai'i's offshore environments. However, studies using offshore observations in other parts of the world have shown that significant errors can occur in reanalyses and wind datasets, which can lead to inaccurate estimates of wind energy generation, payback periods, and extreme weather risks at project locations. The degree of such errors is influenced by a number of factors, including spatial resolution and the handling of processes within the planetary boundary layer (PBL). In this work, we provide a wind resource characterization from year-long lidar buoy measurements off the eastern coast of O'ahu, Hawai'i, an environment previously unobserved at the rotor level, and use the characterization to evaluate the performance of two simulation datasets. The O'ahu deployment location is meteorologically unique and less complex than land-based wind resource characterizations, being strongly characterized by trade winds with minimal land–atmosphere interaction influences. Despite the unique and fairly consistent meteorological conditions, we hypothesize that distinct simulation datasets will exhibit diverse ranges of errors similar to those that have been seen for other offshore locations. We find the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) to strongly underestimate observed wind speeds at the O'ahu location (bias = −1.54 m s −1 at a height of 140 m above sea level), while a regional Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulation produced by the University of Hawai'i (UH-WRF) provides a significantly smaller wind speed bias (−0.25 m s −1 ), highlighting the value of running regional, higher-resolution simulations. The large bias noted for ERA5 is driven by significant underestimation of fast wind speeds (>9 m s −1 ), which the study site is largely characterized by, along with discontinuities in the ERA5 diurnal cycle. We also speculate that the relative sparsity of observations for data assimilation in this remote part of the world could influence the performance of ERA5 and that challenges with characterizing island effects could impact the performance of both datasets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Forty-year hydropower generation reanalysis for Conterminous United States

First published in 2022, the RectifHyd dataset provides hydrologically consistent estimates of monthly net generation for approximately 1,500 hydropower plants in the United States, addressing a gap in industrial surveys that have collected monthly generation data from only ~10% of plants post-2003. Here we present RectifHydPlus—an extended and enhanced dataset that improves on both the proxy information and temporal downscaling methodology adopted in RectifHyd. In addition to providing updated estimates of historical monthly generation for 590 plants with >10 MW nameplate capacity from 1980 through 2019, RectifHydPlus adds a hydrological control dataset that isolates the influence of historical water availability on generation. The new hydrological control dataset is suited to applications seeking to represent the capabilities of the contemporary fleet subject to historical interannual variability in climate. RectifHydPlus also includes a forty-year, daily-resolution, spill-adjusted water release time series for each dam, allowing users to aggregate generation estimates to the desired temporal resolution.

Hydroelectricity↗

The Dark Energy Survey supernova program: a reanalysis of cosmology results and evidence for evolving dark energy with an updated Type Ia supernova calibration

We present improved cosmological constraints from a re-analysis of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 5-year sample of Type Ia supernovae (DES-SN5YR). This re-analysis includes an improved photometric cross-calibration, recent white dwarf observations to cross-calibrate between DES and low-redshift surveys, retraining the salt3 light-curve model and fixing a numerical approximation in the host-galaxy colour law. Our fully recalibrated sample, which we call DES-Dovekie, comprises ~1600 likely Type Ia SNe from DES and ~200 low-redshift SNe from other surveys. With DES-Dovekie, we obtain Ω m = 0.330 ± 0.015 in flat Lambda-cold dark matter (⁠ΛCDM) which changes Ω m by –0.022 compared to DES-SN5YR. Combining DES-Dovekie with cosmic microwave background data from Planck, Atacama Cosmology Telescope, and South Pole Telescope and the DESI DR2 measurements in a flat CDM cosmology, we find ω 0 = –0.803 ± 0.054 and ω a = –0.72 ± 0.21⁠. Our results hold a significance of 3.2σ, reduced from 4.2σ for DES-SN5YR, to reject the null hypothesis that the data are compatible with the cosmological constant. This significance is equivalent to a Bayesian model preference odds of approximately 5:1 in favour of the flat ω 0 ω a CDM model. Using generally accepted thresholds for model preference, our updated data exhibits only a weak preference for evolving dark energy.

dark energy↗

Earth System Reanalysis in Support of Climate Model Improvements

Recent climate model developments, established through increased model resolution, have led to substantial improvements in model simulations of the time-evolving, coupled Earth system and its subcomponents. However, regardless of resolution, climate models will always produce climate features and variability that differ from the real world and will be prone to biases. This is due to many remaining uncertainties, such as in parametric and structural model uncertainty, in the initial conditions prescribed, and in the prescribed (scenario) forcing which varies on decadal to centennial timescales. Further model improvements are expected to arise specifically from improved representation of physical processes realized through model-data fusion. This will create an unprecedented opportunity to better exploit a large array of Earth observations, from in situ measurements to weather radars and satellite observations, as the resolved scales of the models approach those of the observations. For this, climate DA will be the central tool to bring models and observations into consistency, by improving initial conditions, inferring uncertain model parameters and structure, and quantifying uncertainty. Generally, there will be advantages and complementarities of adjoint-based smoother approaches, ensemble-based filter approaches, or new ML-inspired approaches. Yet, the ever-increasing model resolution will present growing challenges arising from computational cost, calling for new ways of performing data assimilation and model optimization. Using the complementarity in a hybrid approach, blending tools and concepts from variational, ensemble and ML methods might be what is required in the future. In this context ML could be important to handle non-linear responses, and to better approximate non-Gaussian distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

RectifHydPlus: Forty Year Hydropower Generation Reanalysis for Conterminous United States, Version 1.1.

This dataset contains monthly hydropower net-generation totals for 590 plants (each >10 MW) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) from 1980 to 2019. RectifHydPlus v1.1 includes one harmonized table of historical monthly generation—backfilled with observed monthly values where available—and two companion tables: (i) an estimates-only version with no backfill and (ii) a hydrological-control version that removes the effects of capacity and operational change. Each table comprises 23,600 records (590 plants × 40 years). The dataset was developed to address temporal gaps and inconsistencies in publicly available hydropower generation data as available through EIA-923 survey reports. Each record includes a quality label denoting the underlying proxy—from best (direct reservoir releases) to weakest (pattern copied from similar years). By combining the agency-reported survey records with observed and simulated hydrologic releases, RectifHydPlus offers complete, quality-labeled monthly estimates suitable for trend analysis and generation of hydropower generation inputs for energy-water modeling.

Turner, Sean [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗

Monsoonal MCS Initiation, Rainfall, and Diurnal Gravity Waves over the Bay of Bengal: Observation and a Linear Model

Abstract Previous observational studies have indicated that mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contribute the majority of precipitation over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during the summer monsoon season, yet their initiation and propagation remain incompletely understood. To fill this knowledge gap, we conducted a comprehensive study using a combination of 20-yr satellite observations, MCS tracking, reanalysis data, and a theoretical linear model. Satellite observations reveal clear diurnal propagation signals of MCS initiation frequency and rainfall from the west coast of the BoB toward the central BoB, with the MCS rainfall propagating slightly slower than the MCS initiation frequency. Global reanalysis data indicate a strong association between the offshore-propagating MCS initiation frequency/rainfall and diurnal low-level wind perturbations, implying the potential role of gravity waves. To verify the hypothesis, we developed a 2D linear model that can be driven by realistic meteorological fields from reanalysis. The linear model realistically reproduces the characteristics of offshore-propagating diurnal wind perturbations. The wind perturbations, as well as the offshore propagation signals of MCS initiation frequency and rainfall, are associated with diurnal gravity waves emitted from the coastal regions, which in turn are caused by the diurnal land–sea thermal contrast. The ambient wind speed and vertical wind shear play crucial roles in modulating the timing, propagation, and amplitude of diurnal gravity waves. Using the linear model and satellite observations, we further show that the stronger monsoonal flows lead to faster offshore propagation of diurnal gravity waves, which subsequently control the offshore propagation signals of MCS initiation and rainfall. Significance Statement Rainfall over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is primarily contributed by large and organized rainfall systems in the summer monsoon season. During this season, these systems are commonly observed over the east coast of India around midnight, the western BoB in the morning, and the central BoB in the afternoon. This eastward rainfall propagation is confirmed by observations, reanalysis data, and a theoretical model to have a strong association with atmospheric diurnal gravity waves. These waves are caused by land–sea thermal contrast and can trigger rainfall systems over the offshore regions. We also found that the diurnal gravity waves, as well as their triggered rainfall systems, can be greatly modulated by the large-scale monsoonal flows. All the above findings improve our understanding of diurnal rainfall cycle over the BoB and may contribute to the future improvement of rainfall forecast over the region.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Arctic extreme precipitation changes from 1980 to 2022 in response to sea ice decline and enhanced atmospheric rivers

Arctic extreme precipitation (EP) broadly impacts permafrost degradation, glacier and snow cover changes, and ice sheet mass balance as well as ecosystems. However, investigation of EP spatiotemporal variations over the Arctic remains challenging, and their primary drivers are still poorly understood. Performance estimation of three state-of-the-art reanalysis products (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA-5), and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2)) against gauge-based precipitation observations reveals that MERRA-2 outperforms other reanalysis for Arctic EP changes. Based on MERRA-2 data, both annual EP amount and occurrence days averaged over the Arctic show statistically significant positive trends during 1980–2022 (3.37 ± 1.03 mm dec −1 and 0.42 ± 0.17 d dec −1 , respectively), with the most pronounced increase in the autumn. Spatial heterogeneity in annual and seasonal EP trends is found across the Arctic, with the largest positive annual trends of 30 mm dec −1 over the Bering Sea and the Denmark Strait. The significant EP increase is closely associated with intensified atmospheric rivers (ARs) and widespread decline in sea ice concentration (SIC). Specially, SIC and ARs are responsible for 12% and 50% of Arctic EP inter-annual variance, respectively, while ARs directly contribute 28.3% of the total annual EP amounts. These findings explain the mechanistic controls on Arctic EP, providing critical insights for projecting polar weather and climate extremes and their impacts on the Arctic environment.

atmospheric rivers↗

Gridded Sub-daily Climate Forcings for North America Based on Daymet and ERA5 (Daymet-ERA5)

To support high spatial and temporal resolution land surface modeling, this dataset provides hourly time step historic weather forcing at 1-km spatial resolution for the entire North America. The latest Daymet V4 data provides gridded historic daily weather observations at 1-km spatial resolution from 1980 to 2024. Using sub-daily temporal information from the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis, Daymet was further temporally downscaled to hourly time steps and provided in the format required for land surface model simulations. The process of temporal downscaling preserves the relative magnitude in each hourly time step from ERA5 while maintaining the total and average values from Daymet for each day. This results in a blended 1980-2024 Daymet-ERA5 dataset. Available variables include surface air temperature, precipitation, specific humidity, shortwave and longwave radiation, wind speed, and pressure. These data can be used as a high-resolution meteorological forcing dataset to support high-resolution land surface modeling where accurate meteorological forcing datasets built from historic observations and/or reanalysis datasets are desirable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Marine Boundary Layer Clouds Over the Northeast Pacific During the CSET Campaign in E3SM Version 2

It is still challenging to reproduce marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds well in large-scale models despite their importance to the Earth's radiation budget and hydrological cycle. This study evaluates representation of the MBL and clouds in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2. This study compares the E3SM simulation results with remote sensing and reanalysis data during the Cloud System Evolution in the Trades (CSET) field campaign to better understand the stratocumulus-to-cumulus cloud transition (SCT) over the northeast Pacific. E3SM results are extracted along the CSET Lagrangian trajectories. The comparison shows that the E3SM simulation applying horizontal wind nudging performs well in reproducing thermodynamic variables of the MBL and evolution trends of cloud variables along the trajectories. However, substantial overestimations of aerosol and cloud drop number (N d ) are observed, which is explained as an issue with version 2 of the model. Cloud fraction (CF) does decrease from the Californian coast to Hawaii in the E3SM simulation, but most CF values indicate either an overcast or almost clear sky, which differs from satellite and reanalysis data. The effect of N d overestimation on CF evolution is assessed via prescribed-N d simulations. Those simulations with N d modifications show negligible CF changes. A comparison of estimated inversion strength (EIS) also shows that the simulated EIS values are similar to those of reanalysis data. Our study suggests that cloud macrophysics and boundary layer processes are more important in improving the simulation to capture the SCT than refining the model's thermodynamics or cloud microphysics.

Choi, Kyoung Ock [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA↗

Multiscale ACI Satellite Database

The SATELLITE_EAGLES_PNNL NetCDF dataset contains a suite of satellite- and reanalysis-derived atmospheric and surface parameters on a regular latitude–longitude grid. The dataset includes core geophysical fields such as land fraction, aerosol optical depth at multiple wavelengths (465, 550, 667, and 865 nm), sea surface temperature, estimated inversion strength, and various thermodynamic and dynamic quantities (e.g., relative humidity, vertical velocity, boundary-layer height, and surface fluxes) from both MERRA and ERA reanalysis products, provided as daily-mean and instantaneous values. A major component of the dataset consists of MODIS-retrieved cloud microphysical properties, including cloud droplet number concentration, cloud effective radius, optical thickness, and liquid water path, provided for three compositing regimes (“All,” “Q06,” and “G18”). Corresponding cloud-top parameters—temperature, height, and pressure—along with total and domain-mean cloud fraction fields are also included. The file further integrates additional satellite data from AMSR-E (for cloud water, rain water, and surface precipitation retrievals) and CERES (for top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes, cloud fractions, and albedo). This dataset is designed to evaluate aerosol–cloud interactions in warm clouds, emphasizing the use of MODIS for deriving cloud droplet number concentration and liquid water path statistics. The complementary satellite and reanalysis fields are co-located and time-matched to the same instantaneous MODIS observations, enabling consistent comparisons between cloud properties, aerosol loading, and large-scale meteorological conditions. The dataset is recently featured in Christensen et al. (2025), Machine Learning Reveals Strong Grid-Scale Dependence in the Satellite Nd–LWP Relationship, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3850, 2025.

Christensen, Matthew [Pacific Northwest National L↗

Multiscale ACI Satellite Database

The SATELLITE_EAGLES_PNNL NetCDF dataset contains a suite of satellite- and reanalysis-derived atmospheric and surface parameters on a regular latitude–longitude grid. The dataset includes core geophysical fields such as land fraction, aerosol optical depth at multiple wavelengths (465, 550, 667, and 865 nm), sea surface temperature, estimated inversion strength, and various thermodynamic and dynamic quantities (e.g., relative humidity, vertical velocity, boundary-layer height, and surface fluxes) from both MERRA and ERA reanalysis products, provided as daily-mean and instantaneous values. A major component of the dataset consists of MODIS-retrieved cloud microphysical properties, including cloud droplet number concentration, cloud effective radius, optical thickness, and liquid water path, provided for three compositing regimes (“All,” “Q06,” and “G18”). Corresponding cloud-top parameters—temperature, height, and pressure—along with total and domain-mean cloud fraction fields are also included. The file further integrates additional satellite data from AMSR-E (for cloud water, rain water, and surface precipitation retrievals) and CERES (for top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes, cloud fractions, and albedo). This dataset is designed to evaluate aerosol–cloud interactions in warm clouds, emphasizing the use of MODIS for deriving cloud droplet number concentration and liquid water path statistics. The complementary satellite and reanalysis fields are co-located and time-matched to the same instantaneous MODIS observations, enabling consistent comparisons between cloud properties, aerosol loading, and large-scale meteorological conditions. The dataset is recently featured in Christensen et al. (2025), Machine Learning Reveals Strong Grid-Scale Dependence in the Satellite Nd–LWP Relationship, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3850, 2025.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A new metrics framework for quantifying and intercomparing atmospheric rivers in observations, reanalyses, and climate models

We present a new atmospheric river (AR) analysis and benchmarking tool, namely Atmospheric River Metrics Package (ARMP). It includes a suite of new AR metrics that are designed for quick analysis of AR characteristics via statistics in gridded climate datasets such as model output and reanalysis. This package can be used for climate model evaluation in comparison with reanalysis and observational products. Integrated metrics such as mean bias and spatial pattern correlation are efficient for diagnosing systematic AR biases in climate models. For example, the package identifies the fact that, in CMIP5 and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6) models, AR tracks in the South Atlantic are positioned farther poleward compared to ERA5 reanalysis, while in the South Pacific, tracks are generally biased towards the Equator. For the landfalling AR peak season, we find that most climate models simulate a completely opposite seasonal cycle over western Africa. This tool can also be used for identifying and characterizing structural differences among different AR detectors (ARDTs). For example, ARs detected with the Mundhenk algorithm exhibit systematically larger size, width, and length compared to the TempestExtremes (TE) method. The AR metrics developed from this work can be routinely applied for model benchmarking and during the development cycle to trace performance evolution across model versions or generations and set objective targets for the improvement of models. They can also be used by operational centers to perform near-real-time climate and extreme event impact assessments as part of their forecast cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Characteristics and trends of Atlantic tropical cyclones that do and do not develop from African easterly waves

Abstract Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) are known to develop from African easterly waves (AEWs) that propagate across North Africa and out over the Atlantic Ocean. The relationship between AEWs and TCs has been the subject of numerous previous studies. There are, however, many Atlantic TCs that do not have AEW origins. In this study, we provide a novel analysis of the characteristics and trends of Atlantic TCs both with and without AEW origins using 43 years of observational and reanalysis data. To conduct this research, we identified TCs with and without AEW origins from the observational record between 1980 and 2022, and ran objective tracking algorithms on reanalysis data to identify the AEWs and TCs during this time period. We found statistically significant differences in the characteristics and environments of TCs with and without AEW origins. TCs with AEW origins are stronger and costlier, experience more favorable environmental conditions, and are more likely to make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean when compared to TCs without AEW origins. Additionally, the 43‐year increasing trend in Atlantic TC activity is primarily driven by an increase in TCs with AEW origins that is associated with increasing AEW frequency and strength, with anthropogenic aerosols potentially driving this trend. In contrast, we found no trend in TCs without AEW origins.

Bercos‐Hickey, Emily↗

Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia

Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal is to evaluate the SEAS5’s ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related interannual variability and predictability of the SAT over WSA, which is mediated through upper-level (200-hPa) geopotential height anomalies. This teleconnection leads to anomalously warm surface conditions over the region during the negative ENSO phase, as observed in the reanalysis and SEAS5. We evaluate SEAS5 prediction skill against two observations and three reanalyses datasets. The SEAS5 SAT prediction skill is higher with high spatial resolution observations and reanalysis datasets compared to the ones with low-resolution. Overall, SEAS5 shows reasonable skill in predicting SAT and its variability over the WSA region. Moreover, the predictability of SAT during La Niña is comparable to El Niño years over the WSA region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance evaluation of CMIP6 models on the Arctic-Siberian Plain teleconnection affecting the East Asian heat waves

The frequency and intensity of summer heat waves in East Asia have increased sharply in recent decades, significantly impacting public health and the economy. The Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP) teleconnection pattern has been identified as a key driver, with ASP warming amplifying atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to extreme temperatures. This study evaluates the ability of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 models to simulate the ASP pattern across interannual variability (IAV) and intra-seasonal variability (ISV) timescales using the Common Basis Function method. The multi-model mean shows statistically significant pattern correlations with ERA5 reanalysis, with correlation coefficients of 0.90 and 0.99 for IAV and ISV, respectively. While the ASP pattern is generally well captured, models exhibit substantial inter-model diversity in the intensity and position of anticyclonic anomalies over the ASP and East Asia. Models with ASP pattern variability similar to reanalysis better reproduce extreme East Asian temperatures, whereas those over- or underestimating ASP variability exhibit lower skill. These performance differences are related to differences in simulating key variables associated with the development of the ASP pattern. Our findings highlight the role of the ASP pattern in modulating extreme heat events, as models with improved ASP simulations align more closely with observed temperature extremes. Refining ASP representations in models could enhance seasonal heat wave predictions, improving climate adaptation strategies.

Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP)↗

Assessing Radiative Feedbacks and Their Contribution to the Arctic Amplification Measured by Various Metrics

Arctic amplification (AA), characterized by a more rapid surface air temperature (SAT) warming in the Arctic than the global average, is a major feature of global climate warming. Various metrics have been used to quantify AA based on SAT anomalies, trends, or variability, and they can yield quite different conclusions regarding the magnitude and temporal patterns of AA. This study examines and compares various AA metrics for their temporal consistency in the region north of 70°N from the early twentieth to the early 21st century using observational data and reanalysis products. We also quantify contributions of different radiative feedback mechanisms to AA based on short-term climate variability in reanalysis and model data using the Kernel-Gregory approach. Albedo and lapse rate feedbacks are positive and comparable, with albedo feedback being the leading contributor for all AA metrics. The net cloud feedback, which has large uncertainties, depends strongly on the data sets and AA metrics used. By quantifying the influence of internal variability on AA and related feedbacks based on global climate model ensemble simulations, we find that water vapor and cloud feedbacks are most heavily affected by internal variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗