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Regression Verification Using Impact Summaries

Regression verification techniques are used to prove equivalence of syntactically similar programs. Checking equivalence of large programs, however, can be computationally expensive. Existing regression verification techniques rely on abstraction and decomposition techniques to reduce the computational effort of checking equivalence of the entire program. These techniques are sound but not complete. In this work, we propose a novel approach to improve scalability of regression verification by classifying the program behaviors generated during symbolic execution as either impacted or unimpacted. Our technique uses a combination of static analysis and symbolic execution to generate summaries of impacted program behaviors. The impact summaries are then checked for equivalence using an o-the-shelf decision procedure. We prove that our approach is both sound and complete for sequential programs, with respect to the depth bound of symbolic execution. Our evaluation on a set of sequential C artifacts shows that reducing the size of the summaries can help reduce the cost of software equivalence checking. Various reduction, abstraction, and compositional techniques have been developed to help scale software verification techniques to industrial-sized systems. Although such techniques have greatly increased the size and complexity of systems that can be checked, analysis of large software systems remains costly. Regression analysis techniques, e.g., regression testing [16], regression model checking [22], and regression verification [19], restrict the scope of the analysis by leveraging the differences between program versions. These techniques are based on the idea that if code is checked early in development, then subsequent versions can be checked against a prior (checked) version, leveraging the results of the previous analysis to reduce analysis cost of the current version. Regression verification addresses the problem of proving equivalence of closely related program versions [19]. These techniques compare two programs with a large degree of syntactic similarity to prove that portions of one program version are equivalent to the other. Regression verification can be used for guaranteeing backward compatibility, and for showing behavioral equivalence in programs with syntactic differences, e.g., when a program is refactored to improve its performance, maintainability, or readability. Existing regression verification techniques leverage similarities between program versions by using abstraction and decomposition techniques to improve scalability of the analysis [10, 12, 19]. The abstractions and decomposition in the these techniques, e.g., summaries of unchanged code [12] or semantically equivalent methods [19], compute an over-approximation of the program behaviors. The equivalence checking results of these techniques are sound but not complete-they may characterize programs as not functionally equivalent when, in fact, they are equivalent. In this work we describe a novel approach that leverages the impact of the differences between two programs for scaling regression verification. We partition program behaviors of each version into (a) behaviors impacted by the changes and (b) behaviors not impacted (unimpacted) by the changes. Only the impacted program behaviors are used during equivalence checking. We then prove that checking equivalence of the impacted program behaviors is equivalent to checking equivalence of all program behaviors for a given depth bound. In this work we use symbolic execution to generate the program behaviors and leverage control- and data-dependence information to facilitate the partitioning of program behaviors. The impacted program behaviors are termed as impact summaries. The dependence analyses that facilitate the generation of the impact summaries, we believe, could be used in conjunction with other abstraction and decomposition based approaches, [10, 12], as a complementary reduction technique. An evaluation of our regression verification technique shows that our approach is capable of leveraging similarities between program versions to reduce the size of the queries and the time required to check for logical equivalence. The main contributions of this work are: - A regression verification technique to generate impact summaries that can be checked for functional equivalence using an off-the-shelf decision procedure. - A proof that our approach is sound and complete with respect to the depth bound of symbolic execution. - An implementation of our technique using the LLVMcompiler infrastructure, the klee Symbolic Virtual Machine [4], and a variety of Satisfiability Modulo Theory (SMT) solvers, e.g., STP [7] and Z3 [6]. - An empirical evaluation on a set of C artifacts which shows that the use of impact summaries can reduce the cost of regression verification.

Backes, John↗

Demonstration of a Fiber Optic Regression Probe in a High-Temperature Flow

The capability to provide localized, real-time monitoring of material regression rates in various applications has the potential to provide a new stream of data for development testing of various components and systems, as well as serving as a monitoring tool in flight applications. These applications include, but are not limited to, the regression of a combusting solid fuel surface, the ablation of the throat in a chemical rocket or the heat shield of an aeroshell, and the monitoring of erosion in long-life plasma thrusters. The rate of regression in the first application is very fast, while the second and third are increasingly slower. A recent fundamental sensor development effort has led to a novel regression, erosion, and ablation sensor technology (REAST). The REAST sensor allows for measurement of real-time surface erosion rates at a discrete surface location. The sensor is optical, using two different, co-located fiber-optics to perform the regression measurement. The disparate optical transmission properties of the two fiber-optics makes it possible to measure the regression rate by monitoring the relative light attenuation through the fibers. As the fibers regress along with the parent material in which they are embedded, the relative light intensities through the two fibers changes, providing a measure of the regression rate. The optical nature of the system makes it relatively easy to use in a variety of harsh, high temperature environments, and it is also unaffected by the presence of electric and magnetic fields. In addition, the sensor could be used to perform optical spectroscopy on the light emitted by a process and collected by fibers, giving localized measurements of various properties. The capability to perform an in-situ measurement of material regression rates is useful in addressing a variety of physical issues in various applications. An in-situ measurement allows for real-time data regarding the erosion rates, providing a quick method for empirically anchoring any analysis geared towards lifetime qualification. Erosion rate data over an operating envelope could also be useful in the modeling detailed physical processes. The sensor has been embedded in many regressing media to demonstrate the capabilities in a number of regressing environments. In the present work, sensors were installed in the eroding/regressing throat region of a converging-diverging flow, with the working gas heated to high temperatures by means of a high-pressure arc discharge at steady-state discharge power levels up to 500 kW. The amount of regression observed in each material sample was quantified using a later profilometer, which was compared to the in-situ erosion measurements to demonstrate the efficacy of the measurement technique in very harsh, high-temperature environments.

Korman, Valentin↗

Improving Prediction of Peroxide Value of Edible Oils Using Regularized Regression Models

We present four unique prediction techniques, combined with multiple data pre-processing methods, utilizing a wide range of both oil types and oil peroxide values (PV) as well as incorporating natural aging for peroxide creation. Samples were PV assayed using a standard starch titration method, AOCS Method Cd 8-53, and used as a verified reference method for PV determination. Near-infrared (NIR) spectra were collected from each sample in two unique optical pathlengths (OPLs), 2 and 24 mm, then fused into a third distinct set. All three sets were used in partial least squares (PLS) regression, ridge regression, LASSO regression, and elastic net regression model calculation. While no individual regression model was established as the best, global models for each regression type and pre-processing method show good agreement between all regression types when performed in their optimal scenarios. Furthermore, small spectral window size boxcar averaging shows prediction accuracy improvements for edible oil PVs. Best-performing models for each regression type are: PLS regression, 25 point boxcar window fused OPL spectral information RMSEP = 2.50; ridge regression, 5 point boxcar window, 24 mm OPL, RMSEP = 2.20; LASSO raw spectral information, 24 mm OPL, RMSEP = 1.80; and elastic net, 10 point boxcar window, 24 mm OPL, RMSEP = 1.91. The results show promising advancements in the development of a full global model for PV determination of edible oils.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dll4-Notch1 signaling but not VEGF-A is essential for hyperoxia induced vessel regression in retina

Highlights: • Our study find that VEGF-A is not an indispensable factor in hyperoxia induced vessel regression. • Hyperoxia exposure inactivated Dll4-Notch1 signaling in vessel regression region. • Inhibition of Dll4-Notch1 signaling by short-time administration of Dll4 neutralizing antibodies or DAPT exaggerates hyperoxia induced vascular regression. It is well recognized that decreased vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGF-A) mRNA plays an important role in retinal vessel regression induced by hyperoxia. However, this concept has been challenged by increasing new evidence. Furthermore, VEGF-A strongly enhances Dll4 expression and inhibition of Dll4-Notch signaling leads to excessive sprouting angiogenesis. Recently, it is shown that inactivation of Dll4-Notch1 signaling reduce hyperoxia induced vessel regression. It is unknown whether sprouting angiogenesis contributes to the protective effect or not and further investigations are needed. Moreover, the expression of Dll4 or Notch1 activation in the regressing plexus remains elucidated. To determine the role of VEGF-A and Dll4-Notch1 signaling in hyperoxia induced vascular regression in the retina, we used mice at postnatal day 5 (P5) - P7. Hyperoxia induced massive vascular regression in the central plexus but not in the angiogenic plexus and had no effect on sprouting angiogenesis. Immunostaining showed that VEGF-A was significantly repressed in the angiogenic front region after hyperoxia exposure but not detectable in the central area of both normoxia and hyperoxia treated retinas. In contrast, Notch ligand Delta-like 4 (Dll4) and Notch1 intracellular domain (N1-ICD) expression were inhibited in the regressing capillaries of central retina but comparable in the angiogenic plexus after high oxygen treatment. Moreover, administration of Dll4 neutralizing antibody or γ-Secretase inhibitor DAPT significantly aggravated vessel regression induced by short-time hyperoxia administration. Our data show that repressed Dll4-Notch1 signaling pathway but not downregulation of VEGF-A expression are responsible for hyperoxia induced pervasive vessel regression.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Demonstration of a Fiber Optic Regression Probe

The capability to provide localized, real-time monitoring of material regression rates in various applications has the potential to provide a new stream of data for development testing of various components and systems, as well as serving as a monitoring tool in flight applications. These applications include, but are not limited to, the regression of a combusting solid fuel surface, the ablation of the throat in a chemical rocket or the heat shield of an aeroshell, and the monitoring of erosion in long-life plasma thrusters. The rate of regression in the first application is very fast, while the second and third are increasingly slower. A recent fundamental sensor development effort has led to a novel regression, erosion, and ablation sensor technology (REAST). The REAST sensor allows for measurement of real-time surface erosion rates at a discrete surface location. The sensor is optical, using two different, co-located fiber-optics to perform the regression measurement. The disparate optical transmission properties of the two fiber-optics makes it possible to measure the regression rate by monitoring the relative light attenuation through the fibers. As the fibers regress along with the parent material in which they are embedded, the relative light intensities through the two fibers changes, providing a measure of the regression rate. The optical nature of the system makes it relatively easy to use in a variety of harsh, high temperature environments, and it is also unaffected by the presence of electric and magnetic fields. In addition, the sensor could be used to perform optical spectroscopy on the light emitted by a process and collected by fibers, giving localized measurements of various properties. The capability to perform an in-situ measurement of material regression rates is useful in addressing a variety of physical issues in various applications. An in-situ measurement allows for real-time data regarding the erosion rates, providing a quick method for empirically anchoring any analysis geared towards lifetime qualification. Erosion rate data over an operating envelope could also be useful in the modeling detailed physical processes. The sensor has been embedded in many regressing media for the purposes of proof-of-concept testing. A gross demonstration of its capabilities was performed using a sanding wheel to remove layers of metal. A longer-term demonstration measurement involved the placement of the sensor in a brake pad, monitoring the removal of pad material associated with the normal wear-and-tear of driving. It was used to measure the regression rates of the combustable media in small model rocket motors and road flares. Finally, a test was performed using a sand blaster to remove small amounts of material at a time. This test was aimed at demonstrating the unit's present resolution, and is compared with laser profilometry data obtained simultaneously. At the lowest resolution levels, this unit should be useful in locally quantifying the erosion rates of the channel walls in plasma thrusters. .

Korman, Valentin↗

Automated and efficient local adaptive regression for principal component-based reduced-order modeling of turbulent reacting flows

Principal Component Analysis can be used to reduce the cost of Computational Fluid Dynamics simulations of turbulent reacting flows by reducing the dimensionality of the transported variables through projection of the thermochemical state onto a lower-dimensional manifold. However, because of the nonlinearity of the principal component source terms, nonlinear regression techniques must be utilized for the source terms in terms of the principal components. Unfortunately, widely available and utilized nonlinear regression techniques can have prohibitive computational requirements and/or accuracy that is highly dependent on user experience in ad hoc tuning of model architecture and hyperparameters. Here, in this work, a new nonlinear regression approach is proposed that is both computationally efficient and automated so does not require any user input. The approach is evaluated through a priori prediction of principal component source terms using data from a Direct Numerical Simulation of a turbulent nonpremixed n-heptane/air jet flame. In particular, the proposed framework consists of local regressions whose complexity is adapted according to the local nonlinearity of the data: local linear regression when accurate enough and local Artificial Neural Networks when nonlinear regression is required. The number of local clusters for local regression is determined automatically using the Davies-Bouldin index. In addition, Bayesian optimization is utilized for model training (i.e., to select the best architectures and hyperparameters of the nonlinear regressions in an unsupervised fashion), eliminating ad hoc hand-tuning and/or expensive grid searches. Overall, compared to a single, global neural network, the new local adaptive regression approach is shown to have comparable accuracy but 69% less training time due to the utilization of local linear regression and faster training of local neural networks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comparison of One- and Two-Variable Linear Regression Models and Classic Energy Intensity for Energy Performance Tracking of Two Manufacturing Sectors

We report manufacturing facilities consumed about 32% of total domestic energy in the United States in 2016. To evaluate the energy savings achieved through the implementation of energy conservation projects and to establish powerful arguments for future projects, accurate energy performance tracking methods are necessary. The classic energy intensity method (i.e., the ratio of annual total energy over annual total production) is the means most widely used to measure savings because it can be understood and calculated easily. This method considers the variation in production rates to some extent; however, it fundamentally assumes facilities' base energy consumption (energy consumption at zero production) to be zero, which rarely holds true. Furthermore, this method does not consider variations in other relevant parameters, such as weather conditions. Therefore, the regression models approach is commonly recommended to track energy performance improvements. However, because it requires more data and statistical expertise, the regression models approach has been adopted by only a few facilities, and many others suspect it is not worth the effort for their specific cases. For this reason, the improved accuracy this approach offers needs to be demonstrated. By analyzing 477 monthly energy (electricity and natural gas) data sets, this study quantitatively compared the accuracy of classic energy intensity, one-variable (production only) linear regression models, and two-variable (i.e., production and weather) linear regression models for two manufacturing sectors (primary metal and transportation equipment manufacturing). Results showed that significant improvements in accuracy were achieved with one-variable regression models when compared with the classic energy intensity method and with two-variable regression models when compared with one-variable regression models. These improvements were demonstrated using the p values of intercept, cooling degree days, and heating degree days. Based on these results, to achieve a good balance between accuracy improvements and resources requirements, one-variable (production only) linear regression models for electricity consumption and two-variable (production and heating degree days) linear regression models for natural gas consumption are recommended for both sectors in the case of limited resources. Lastly, facilities can also use the results to decide which approaches fit better in their cases.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Summary of Documentation for DYNA3D-ParaDyn's Software Quality Assurance Regression Test Problems

The Software Quality Assurance (SQA) regression test suite for DYNA3D (Zywicz and Lin, 2015) and ParaDyn (DeGroot, et al., 2015) currently contains approximately 600 problems divided into 21 suites, and is a required component of ParaDyn’s SQA plan (Ferencz and Oliver, 2013). The regression suite allows developers to ensure that software modifications do not unintentionally alter the code response. The entire regression suite is run prior to permanently incorporating any software modification or addition. When code modifications alter test problem results, the specific cause must be determined and fully understood before the software changes and revised test answers can be incorporated. The regression suite is executed on LLNL platforms using a Python script and an associated data file. The user specifies the DYNA3D or ParaDyn executable, number of processors to use, test problems to run, and other options to the script. The data file details how each problem and its answer extraction scripts are executed. For each problem in the regression suite there exists an input deck, an eight-processor partition file, an answer file, and various extraction scripts. These scripts assemble a temporary answer file in a specific format from the simulation results. The temporary and stored answer files are compared to a specific level of numerical precision, and when differences are detected the test problem is flagged as failed. Presently, numerical results are stored and compared to 16 digits. At this accuracy level different processor types, compilers, number of partitions, etc. impact the results to various degrees. Thus, for consistency purposes the regression suite is run with ParaDyn using 8 processors on machines with a specific processor type (currently the Intel Xeon E5530 processor). For non-parallel regression problems, i.e., the two XFEM problems, DYNA3D is used instead. When environments or platforms change, executables using the current source code and the new resource are created and the regression suite is run. If differences in answers arise, the new answers are retained provided that the differences are inconsequential. This bootstrap approach allows the test suite answers to evolve in a controlled manner with a high level of confidence. Developers also run the entire regression suite with (serial) DYNA3D. While these results normally differ from the stored (parallel) answers, abnormal termination or wildly different values are strong indicators of potential issues.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Embedded Sensors for Measuring Surface Regression

The development and evaluation of new hybrid and solid rocket motors requires accurate characterization of the propellant surface regression as a function of key operational parameters. These characteristics establish the propellant flow rate and are prime design drivers affecting the propulsion system geometry, size, and overall performance. There is a similar need for the development of advanced ablative materials, and the use of conventional ablatives exposed to new operational environments. The Miniature Surface Regression Sensor (MSRS) was developed to serve these applications. It is designed to be cast or embedded in the material of interest and regresses along with it. During this process, the resistance of the sensor is related to its instantaneous length, allowing the real-time thickness of the host material to be established. The time derivative of this data reveals the instantaneous surface regression rate. The MSRS could also be adapted to perform similar measurements for a variety of other host materials when it is desired to monitor thicknesses and/or regression rate for purposes of safety, operational control, or research. For example, the sensor could be used to monitor the thicknesses of brake linings or racecar tires and indicate when they need to be replaced. At the time of this reporting, over 200 of these sensors have been installed into a variety of host materials. An MSRS can be made in either of two configurations, denoted ladder and continuous (see Figure 1). A ladder MSRS includes two highly electrically conductive legs, across which narrow strips of electrically resistive material are placed at small increments of length. These strips resemble the rungs of a ladder and are electrically equivalent to many tiny resistors connected in parallel. A substrate material provides structural support for the legs and rungs. The instantaneous sensor resistance is read by an external signal conditioner via wires attached to the conductive legs on the non-eroding end of the sensor. The sensor signal can be transmitted from inside a high-pressure chamber to the ambient environment, using commercially available feedthrough connectors. Miniaturized internal recorders or wireless data transmission could also potentially be employed to eliminate the need for producing penetrations in the chamber case. The rungs are designed so that as each successive rung is eroded away, the resistance changes by an amount that yields a readily measurable signal larger than the background noise. (In addition, signal-conditioning techniques are used in processing the resistance readings to mitigate the effect of noise.) Hence, each discrete change of resistance serves to indicate the arrival of the regressing host material front at the known depth of the affected resistor rung. The average rate of regression between two adjacent resistors can be calculated simply as the distance between the resistors divided by the time interval between their resistance jumps. Advanced data reduction techniques have also been developed to establish the instantaneous surface position and regression rate when the regressing front is between rungs.

Gramer, Daniel J.↗

Regression Bias in using Solar Wind Measurements

Simultaneous solar wind measurements from the solar wind monitors, WIND and ACE, differ due to the spatial and temporal structure of the solar wind. Correlation studies that use these measurements as input may infer an incorrect correlation due to uncertainties arising from this spatial and temporal structure, especially at extreme and rare solar wind values. In particular, regression analysis will lead to a regression function whose slope is biased towards the mean value of the measurement parameter. This article demonstrates this regression bias by comparing simultaneous ACE and WIND solar wind measurements. A non-linear regression analysis between them leads to a perception of underestimation of extreme values of one measurement on average over the other. Using numerical experiments, we show that popular regression analysis techniques such as linear least-squares, orthogonal least-squares, and non-linear regression are not immune to this bias. Hence while using solar wind parameters as an independent variable in a correlation or regression analysis, random uncertainty in the independent variable can create unintended biases in the response of the dependent variable. More generally, the regression to the mean effect can impact both event-based, statistical studies of magnetospheric response to solar wind forcing.

magnetosphere↗

Measurement of hybrid rocket solid fuel regression rate for a slab burner using deep learning

This study presents an imaging-based deep learning tool to measure the fuel regression rate in a 2D slab burner experiment for hybrid rocket fuels. The slab burner experiment is designed to verify mechanistic models of reacting boundary layer combustion in hybrid rockets by the measurement of fuel regression rates. A DSLR camera with a high intensity flash is used to capture images throughout the burn and the images are then used to find the fuel boundary to calculate the regression rate. A U-net convolutional neural network architecture is explored to segment the fuel from the experimental images. Here, a Monte-Carlo Dropout process is used to quantify the regression rate uncertainty produced from the network. The U-net computed regression rates are compared with values from other techniques from literature and show error less than 10%. An oxidizer flux dependency study is performed and shows the U-net predictions of regression rates are accurate and independent of the oxidizer flux, when the images in the training set are not over-saturated. Training with monochrome images is explored and is not successful at predicting the fuel regression rate from images with high noise. The network is superior at filtering out noise introduced by soot, pitting, and wax deposition on the chamber glass as well as the flame when compared to traditional image processing techniques, such as threshold binary conversion and spatial filtering. U-net consistently provides low error image segmentations to allow accurate computation of the regression rate of the fuel.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Predicting Li-Ion Battery Capacity Fade Using Early-Life Data and a Hybrid Data-Driven Gaussian Process-Bayesian Regression Approach

Accurately predicting Li-ion battery capacity trajectories using early-life data can dramatically improve battery-life understandings and be used to rapidly evaluate design/cost/performance trade-offs when developing new battery materials. Accurate early-life predictions enable researchers to quickly iterate over cell designs and material precursor properties without consistently cycling cells to failure. To this end, we present a toolbox that uses a combined Gaussian Process and Bayesian regression approach that capitalizes on signals other than just capacity (e.g., dQ/dV, voltage drops) to rapidly predict capacity-fade trajectories. The prediction tool uses Bayesian regression to fit functional forms, e.g., power law, sigmoids, etc., to predict capacity-fade dynamics. By fitting functional forms, the capacity fade can be interrogated at any point in the future, allowing for early cell-failure prediction. Additionally, Bayesian regression allows for accurate uncertainty estimates that account for cell-to-cell variability (aleatoric uncertainty) and the lack of observation data (epistemic uncertainty). By only using early cycle data to predict the capacity fade trajectory, uncertainty bounds at end-of-life can be extremely large. The large uncertainty bounds are further exacerbated because there is no systematic way to define the prior distribution of the functional forms' parameters. We improve our the predicted trajectory confidence interval of our predicted trajectory using two methods. First, we shows that a small amount of held-out cycling data is sufficientuse some train cells, that have been cycled to failure to derive information regarding the appropriate prior distributions for the functional forms' parameters of the functional form, effectively leading to data-driven priors.. We propose constructing the data-driven priors by first running a Bayesian regression starting with uninformed priors to generate intermediate cell-specific posterior parameter distributions. These posterior distributions are combined using a Ggaussian mixture model for each parameter to create the data-driven priors. These mixture models serve as the data-driven prior distributions for the parameters for. Second, we derive multiple features, e.g., C_dchg 0.5 DoD 0.5, log (|mean(dQ/dV_(w_3-w_0 ) (V)|), etc., from the train cellsheld-out cycling data, identify which the features are that best predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles, and then create Ggaussian process regression models that are used for predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles for the test cells (see blue dots with error bars in Fig 1b). Finally, these predicted data-points are used in addition to the actual early cycle data capacity fade to construct the Bayesian regression trajectory for the test cell s. Notably. We note that these two methods are complementary and can be combined with each other. We evaluate the performance of our proposed method on an testing open-source dataset from Iowa State University and Iowa Lakes Community College (ISU-ILCC). This dataset comprises of 251 nickel-manganese-cobalt/graphite Lithium-ion cells that are cycled under 63 different conditions. We compute the mean average percentage error (MAPE) and negative log predictive density (NLPD) to quantify the efficacy of our method. Our initial findings suggest that, when only few observations are available, for test cells, when using only Bayesian regression with uninformed priors, a power law functional provides the most accurate predictions. with very few data points. However, asHowever, a the number of data points increases, a twin sigmoidal function becomes more accurate as the number of observations further increases. We also find that using as little as 10% of the data set towards generating data-driven priors can lead to significant improvement in prediction accuracy when using early cycle data. Lastly, we found that augmenting early-cycle data with Gaussian process-predicted capacity data for Bayesian regression greatly improves the prediction accuracy. We will present a comprehensive comparison of our methods to other methods available in the literature and apply this method to additional battery datasets.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Subsonic Aircraft With Regression and Neural-Network Approximators Designed

At the NASA Glenn Research Center, NASA Langley Research Center's Flight Optimization System (FLOPS) and the design optimization testbed COMETBOARDS with regression and neural-network-analysis approximators have been coupled to obtain a preliminary aircraft design methodology. For a subsonic aircraft, the optimal design, that is the airframe-engine combination, is obtained by the simulation. The aircraft is powered by two high-bypass-ratio engines with a nominal thrust of about 35,000 lbf. It is to carry 150 passengers at a cruise speed of Mach 0.8 over a range of 3000 n mi and to operate on a 6000-ft runway. The aircraft design utilized a neural network and a regression-approximations-based analysis tool, along with a multioptimizer cascade algorithm that uses sequential linear programming, sequential quadratic programming, the method of feasible directions, and then sequential quadratic programming again. Optimal aircraft weight versus the number of design iterations is shown. The central processing unit (CPU) time to solution is given. It is shown that the regression-method-based analyzer exhibited a smoother convergence pattern than the FLOPS code. The optimum weight obtained by the approximation technique and the FLOPS code differed by 1.3 percent. Prediction by the approximation technique exhibited no error for the aircraft wing area and turbine entry temperature, whereas it was within 2 percent for most other parameters. Cascade strategy was required by FLOPS as well as the approximators. The regression method had a tendency to hug the data points, whereas the neural network exhibited a propensity to follow a mean path. The performance of the neural network and regression methods was considered adequate. It was at about the same level for small, standard, and large models with redundancy ratios (defined as the number of input-output pairs to the number of unknown coefficients) of 14, 28, and 57, respectively. In an SGI octane workstation (Silicon Graphics, Inc., Mountainview, CA), the regression training required a fraction of a CPU second, whereas neural network training was between 1 and 9 min, as given. For a single analysis cycle, the 3-sec CPU time required by the FLOPS code was reduced to milliseconds by the approximators. For design calculations, the time with the FLOPS code was 34 min. It was reduced to 2 sec with the regression method and to 4 min by the neural network technique. The performance of the regression and neural network methods was found to be satisfactory for the analysis and design optimization of the subsonic aircraft.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗

Hidden Connections between Regression Models of Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data

Hidden connections between regression models of wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data are investigated. These connections become visible whenever balance calibration data is supplied in its design format and both the Iterative and Non-Iterative Method are used to process the data. First, it is shown how the regression coefficients of the fitted balance loads of a force balance can be approximated by using the corresponding regression coefficients of the fitted strain-gage outputs. Then, data from the manual calibration of the Ames MK40 six-component force balance is chosen to illustrate how estimates of the regression coefficients of the fitted balance loads can be obtained from the regression coefficients of the fitted strain-gage outputs. The study illustrates that load predictions obtained by applying the Iterative or the Non-Iterative Method originate from two related regression solutions of the balance calibration data as long as balance loads are given in the design format of the balance, gage outputs behave highly linear, strict statistical quality metrics are used to assess regression models of the data, and regression model term combinations of the fitted loads and gage outputs can be obtained by a simple variable exchange.

Ulbrich, Norbert↗

Investigation of goodness of model data fit using PLSR and PCR regression models to determine informative wavelength band in NIR region for non-invasive blood glucose prediction

Diabetes mellitus is a metabolic disorder characterized by the deficiency in insulin secretion or insulin action on target tissues. Diabetes being diagnosed, requires frequent monitoring. Current measurement techniques are invasive in nature, which is painful. Non-invasive measurement methods for the prediction of blood glucose is a big challenge. Hence this paper focuses on a comparative study to analyze the performance of the two regression models: partial least square regression (PLSR) and principal component regression (PCR) models to arrive at the best regression model for the prediction of blood glucose non-invasively based on NIR diffuse reflectance spectroscopy. The regression model developed involves spectral data collected from 32 subjects from a diabetic center using diffuse reflectance spectrometer (DRS). The spectroscopic data were acquired from the subjects both invasively using clinical method and non-invasively using DRS setup in the NIR spectral range whose wavelength ranges from 750 to 1040 nm. Multivariate analysis using PLSR is found to be a better regression model in terms of the fitted response and estimated mean square prediction error. It is observed that the mean square error value is 0.04 mg/dl for the tenth component in the PLSR model. The developed regression model also proves to be a useful tool in identifying the informative wavelength bands for blood glucose measurement.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Logistic Regression in Clinical Studies

• A logistic regression model is used when the outcome of interest is binary. The term “logistic” refers to the underlying “logit” (log odds) function that is used to model the binary outcome. • Odds ratios are produced from a logistic regression model and have a useful interpretation. • Tips, tricks and concepts used to fit logistic regression models are similar to those used in linear regression models. • Modeling building that is knowledge-based rather than automatic is preferred in most applications of logistic regression. • A logistic regression model that is overparameterized (ie, too many variables for too few events) can result in odds ratios that are implausibly large and confidence intervals that are wide and uninterpretable. These types of “overfitted” models should be avoided. • Logistic regression models can be fit using most standard statistical software.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Linear regression in astronomy. I

Five methods for obtaining linear regression fits to bivariate data with unknown or insignificant measurement errors are discussed: ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression of Y on X, OLS regression of X on Y, the bisector of the two OLS lines, orthogonal regression, and 'reduced major-axis' regression. These methods have been used by various researchers in observational astronomy, most importantly in cosmic distance scale applications. Formulas for calculating the slope and intercept coefficients and their uncertainties are given for all the methods, including a new general form of the OLS variance estimates. The accuracy of the formulas was confirmed using numerical simulations. The applicability of the procedures is discussed with respect to their mathematical properties, the nature of the astronomical data under consideration, and the scientific purpose of the regression. It is found that, for problems needing symmetrical treatment of the variables, the OLS bisector performs significantly better than orthogonal or reduced major-axis regression.

Isobe, Takashi↗

Assessment of Temperature-Dependent Regression Model Terms of a RUAG Six-Component Block-Type Balance

A metric called the percent contribution was applied to regression models of temperature-dependent calibration data of a RUAG six-component block-type balance in order to assess the influence of temperature-dependent regression model terms on the balance load prediction. Regression models were examined that are needed if either the Iterative or the Non-Iterative Method is used for the load prediction. Computed values of the percent contribution confirmed that the cross-product term defined by a primary load and the temperature difference is the most influential temperature-dependent term of the regression model of a primary output that the Iterative Method needs. Similarly, the analysis showed that the cross-product term defined by a primary output and the temperature difference is the most influential temperature-dependent term of the regression model of a primary load that the Non-Iterative Method needs. Computed results support conclusions that were reported in an earlier theoretical study. This study asserted that the cross-product term defined by a primary load or output and the temperature difference models the temperature-dependent shift of the gage sensitivity. The influence of other temperature-dependent terms used in the regression models of the calibration data of RUAG's balance was negligible. This observation may be explained by the fact that RUAG's block-type balances have highly linear characteristics. Overall, the percent contribution has proven itself to be a reliable and easy-to-implement metric that may also be used for the assessment of the influence of temperature-dependent regression model terms on the load prediction of a six-component strain-gage balance.

Ulbrich, N.↗