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Acquisition and production of skilled behavior in dynamic decision-making tasks: Modeling strategic behavior in human-automation interaction: Why and aid can (and should) go unused

Advances in computer and control technology offer the opportunity for task-offload aiding in human-machine systems. A task-offload aid (e.g., an autopilot, an intelligent assistant) can be selectively engaged by the human operator to dynamically delegate tasks to an automated system. Successful design and performance prediction in such systems requires knowledge of the factors influencing the strategy the operator develops and uses for managing interaction with the task-offload aid. A model is presented that shows how such strategies can be predicted as a function of three task context properties (frequency and duration of secondary tasks and costs of delaying secondary tasks) and three aid design properties (aid engagement and disengagement times, aid performance relative to human performance). Sensitivity analysis indicates how each of these contextual and design factors affect the optimal aid aid usage strategy and attainable system performance. The model is applied to understanding human-automation interaction in laboratory experiments on human supervisory control behavior. The laboratory task allowed subjects freedom to determine strategies for using an autopilot in a dynamic, multi-task environment. Modeling results suggested that many subjects may indeed have been acting appropriately by not using the autopilot in the way its designers intended. Although autopilot function was technically sound, this aid was not designed with due regard to the overall task context in which it was placed. These results demonstrate the need for additional research on how people may strategically manage their own resources, as well as those provided by automation, in an effort to keep workload and performance at acceptable levels.

Kirlik, Alex↗

Antiknock evaluation of hydrocarbons and ethers as aviation fuel components

The results of a NACA investigation conducted over a period of several years to evaluate the anti-knock characteristics of organic compounds are summarized. Included are data for 18 branched paraffins and olefins, 27 aromatics, and 22 ethers. The factors of performance investigated were blending characteristics, temperature sensitivity, lead response, and relation between molecular structure and antiknock ratings. Four engines were used.

Barnett, Henry C↗

The physics of the environmental sensitivity of rubidium gas cell atomic frequency standards

Environmental sensitivity is often the most significant limitation to the practical stability of rubidium frequency standards (RFS). For example, temperature sensitivity can cause a rapid frequency change of several parts in 10(exp 10) for a tactical RFS that has an aging of only 1 times 10(exp -11)/month. Other important environmental factors are barometric pressure, vibration, magnetic field, and nuclear radiation. The physical mechanisms that lie behind these environmental sensitivities are considered. These physical mechanisms are related to the performance of actual rubidium frequency standards. For the user of these devices, a better knowledge of the causes for Rb clock instability will aid in their testing and proper application. For the time frequency specialist, a review of these factors may prove useful toward improving RFS design. Some of the RFS environmental sensitivities are due to simple physical mechanisms like the effect of dc magnetic field on the Rb hyperfine resonance frequency. For these, an analysis can be based on physical principles and straightforward design factors. Other environment factors, like temperature sensitivity, are more complex combinations of many effects, both physical and practical, and the analysis often takes the form of an error budget with large unit-to-unit variations. Today's rubidium frequency standards span a wide performance range from small, inexpensive units with pp 10(exp 10) error budgets to larger, higher performance versions offering pp 10(exp 10) stabilities. For both extremes, however, environmental sensitivity can be the most significant performance limitation. Why this is the case and how to make improvements are discussed.

Riley, William J.↗

On the evaluation of air mass factors for atmospheric near-ultraviolet and visible absorption spectroscopy

The interpretation of UV-visible twilight absorption measurements of atmospheric chemical constituents is dependent on how well the optical path, or air mass factor, of light collected by the spectrometer is understood. A simple single scattering model and a Monte Carlo radiative transfer scheme have been developed to study the effects of multiple scattering, aerosol scattering, surface albedo and refraction on air mass factors for scattered light observations. At fairly short visible wavelengths (less than about 450 nm), stratospheric air mass factors are found to be relatively insensitive to multiple scattering, surface albedo and refraction, as well as aerosol scattering by background aerosols. Longer wavelengths display greater sensitivity to refraction and aerosol scattering. Tropospheric air mass factors are found to be highly dependent on aerosol scattering, surface albedo and, at long visible wavelengths (about 650 nm), refraction. Absorption measurements of NO2 and O4 are shown to support these conclusions.

Perliski, Lori M.↗

Duration distributions of bright and dim BATSE gamma-ray bursts

We have measured the T(sub 90) and T(sub 50) durations of bright and dim gamma-ray bursts detected by the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory's (CGRO) Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BASTE). The T(sub 90) T(sub 50) duration is defined as the interval over which 5% (25%) to 95% (75%) of the burst counts accumulate. Out of 775 bursts observed by BATSE 159 bursts were analyzed; bursts with durations shorter than 1.5 s were excluded. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov test yields a probability of 6 x 10(exp -5) that the T(sub 50) durations of the dim and bright samples are drawn from the same parent population. We find that the centroid and extent of the duration distribution for the dim sample are scaled by approximately a factor of 2 relative to those of the bright sample. The measured time-dilation factor is not sensitive to choice of energy band. These results are quantitatively consistent with previous tests for time dilation in a smaller sample of BATSE bursts. The sources of dimmer bursts, if cosmological, would lie at redshifts of order 2.

Norris, J. P.↗

Test and Analysis of the 8-foot Diameter Cylindrical Sandwich Composite Test Article CTA8.2B: As part of the NASA Engineering and Safety Center Shell Buckling Knockdown Factor Project

The buckling response of thin-walled cylindrical structures have long been shown to be sensitive to various imperfections. That is, imperfections related to load introduction, boundary conditions, material property variation, and geometric deviations can all contribute to experimentally obtained buckling loads being lower than the buckling loads predicted for perfect representations of the same thin-walled cylindrical structure. To account for the influence of geometry-based imperfections of a thin-walled cylindrical structure on buckling response, a design factor (also known as a buckling knockdown factor) is used during the design phase. Guidelines for buckling knockdown factors are readily available in NASA SP-8007, Buckling of Thin Walled Circular Cylinders, which was updated in 2020. Prior to this recent update, NASA SP-8007 had not been updated since 1969, and since that time, computational analysis, experimental testing, and manufacturing methods have significantly improved. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) Shell Buckling Knockdown Factor Project (SBKF, NESC Assessment 07-010-E) had the goal of developing buckling design recommendations for select classes of metallic and composite launch-vehicle structures [3]. Specifically, the test and analysis results from the fourth SBKF composite test article SBKF-P3-CYL-CTA8.2B, which is referred to as CTA8.2B, are described in this paper. This test was the fourth in a series of four tests on sandwich composite cylinders that will be used to experimentally validate analysis methods, which in turn can be used to develop new analysis-based shell buckling design guidelines for typical sandwich composite launch vehicle cylindrical structures. Publications describing previous test validation with analysis are available in Refs. CTA8.2B was designed to occupy one corner of the design space with approximately equal bending stiffnesses in the axial and transverse directions and have a larger ratio of radius to effective shell thickness. Each test article had a unique design and was designed to occupy a specific region of the design space. CTA8.2B was an 8-foot diameter honeycomb-core sandwich cylinder that was fabricated and tested at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). The primary objectives of this test were to interrogate the structural capability of a composite test article, and to verify the test article design and analysis approach for cylinders subjected to axial compression and combined axial and bending loads. First, descriptions of the test article design and test are given in Section 2.0, and modeling and analysis methods used in support of the test article design and testing activities are described briefly in Section 3.0. Then, select test results are presented and compared to predicted results in Section 4.0, and concluding remarks are presented in Section 5.0. Finally, drawings of CTA8.2B and references used to support the test and analysis are provided in the Appendix.

Nonlinear analysis↗

Apparent brightness of stars and lasers

Foremost among issues affecting the potential use of astrometric techniques to locate and track laser-carrying spacecraft is the apparent brightness of a laser relative to reference stars. Broadband detectors offer improved sensitivity to stars, but not to lasers. The important and fundamental step of calibrating laser and star brightnesses according to detector spectral sensitivity is performed for four representative kinds of broadband detectors, located above and below the atmosphere. Stars are identified according to parameters traditionally used by astronomers: temperature and apparent brightness at visible wavelengths. These are translated into an energy and photon flux for each kind of broadband detector and are then compared with the corresponding flux from a laser. The comparisons are also given as magnitude correction factors. Astrometrists typically characterize the sensitivity of their instruments in terms of the precision with which they can make a relative measurement of position and the minimum brightness needed to achieve that precision. Given this information and the instruments's spectral sensitivity, the calculations described can be used to infer the detectability of a laser and the precision with which it could be located and tracked. Since the limiting brightness quoted for a particular instrument is typically firm to within 4.0 dB, judging a laser's detectability by its visible brightness alone could lead to serious underestimation of the requirements on its effective radiated power. The laser brightness corrections given solve this problem.

Schumaker, B. L.↗

Simulated Transmission of the Dengue Virus Across the US-Mexico Border Using Remotely Sensed and Ground Based Weather Data

Incidence of dengue fever, caused by a mosquito transmitted virus, have increased in the Americas during recent decades. In the US, local transmission has been reported in southern Texas and Florida. However, despite its close proximity to dengue endemic areas in Mexico and the presence of a primary mosquito vector, there are no reports of local transmission in Arizona. Many studies have demonstrated that weather influences dengue virus transmission by regulating vector development rates, vector habitat availability, and the duration of the virus extrinsic incubation period (EIP). The EIP, the period between mosquito infection and the ability for it to retransmit the virus, is especially important given its high sensitivity to temperature and the short lifespan of mosquitoes. Other studies, however, have suggested that human related factors such as socioeconomic status and herd immunity may explain much of the disparity in dengue incidence in the US‐Mexico border region. Using a meteorologically driven model of vector population dynamics and virus transmission we compare simulations of dengue fever cases in southern Arizona and northern Mexico. A Monte Carlo approach is employed to select parameter values by evaluating simulations in Hermosillo Mexico with reported dengue fever case data. Simulations that replicate the case data best are retained and rerun using remotely sensed climate data from other Arizona and Mexico locations to determine the relative influence of weather on virus transmission. Although human and environmental factors undoubtedly influence dengue transmission in the US‐Mexico border regions, weather is a major facilitator of the transmission process.

Dengue↗

Hydrographic charting from LANDSAT Satellite: A comparison with aircraft imagery

The relative capabilities of two remote-sensing systems in measuring depth and, consequently, bottom contours in sandy-bottomed and sediment-laden coastal waters were determined quantitatively. The multispectral scanner (MSS), orbited on the LANDSAT-2 Satellite, and the ocean color scanner (OCS), flown on U-2 aircraft, were used. Analysis of imagery taken simultaneously indicates a potential for hydrographic charting of marine coastal and shallow shelf areas, even when water turbidity is a factor. Several of the eight optical channels examined on the OCS were found to be sensitive to depth or depth-related information. The greatest sensitivity was in OCS-4(0.544 + or - 0.012 microns) from which contours corresponding to depths up to 12m were determined. The sharpness of these contours and their spatial stability through time suggests that upwelling radiance is a measure of bottom reflectance and not of water turbidity. The two visible channels on LANDSAT's MSS were less sensitive in the discrimination of contours, with depths up to 8m in the high-gain mode (3x) determined in MSS-4(0.5 to 0.6 microns).

Middleton, E. M.↗

Hydrographic charting from Landsat satellite - A comparison with aircraft imagery

The relative capabilities of two remote-sensing systems in measuring depth and, consequently, bottom contours in sandy-bottomed and sediment-laden coastal waters were determined quantitatively. The Multispectral Scanner (MSS), orbited on the Landsat-2 satellite, and the Ocean Color Scanner (OCS), flown on U-2 aircraft, were used for this evaluation. Analysis of imagery taken simultaneously indicates a potential for hydrographic charting of marine coastal and shallow shelf areas, even when water turbidity is a factor. Several of the eight optical channels examined on the OCS were found to be sensitive to depth or depth-related information. The greatest sensitivity was in OCS-4 (0.544 plus or minus 0.012 micron) from which contours corresponding to depths up to 12 m were determined. The sharpness of these contours and their spatial stability through time suggests that upwelling radiance is a measure of bottom reflectance and not of water turbidity. The two visible channels on Landsat's MSS were less sensitive in the discrimination of contours, with depths up to 8 m in the high-gain mode (3 X) determined in MSS-4 (0.5 to 0.6 micron).

Middleton, E. M.↗

Surrogate measures: A proposed alternative in human factors assessment of operational measures of performance

Surrogate measures are proposed as an alternative to direct assessment of operational performance for purposes of screening agents who may have to work under unusual stresses or in exotic environments. Such measures are particularly proposed when the surrogate can be empirically validated against the operational criterion. The focus is on cognitive (or throughput) performances in humans as opposed to sensory (input) or motor (output) measures, but the methods should be applicable for development of batteries which will tap input/output functions. A menu of performance tasks is under development for implementation on a battery-operated portable microcomputer, with 21 tests currently available. The tasks are reliable and become stable in minimum amounts of time; appear sensitive to some agents; comprise constructs related to actual job tasks; and are easily administered in most environments. Implications for human factors engineering studies in environmental stress are discussed.

Kennedy, Robert S.↗

Identification and evaluation of linear damping models in beam vibrations

Sensitive method, identifying effective damping mechanisms, involves comparing experimentally determined ratio of first to second mode magnification factors related to common point on beam. Cluster size has little effect on frequencies of elements, magnification factor decreases with cluster size, and viscous and stress damping are dominant damping mechanisms.

Boers, B. L.↗

Integration of environmental and spectral data for sunflower stress determination

Stress in sunflowers was assessed in western and northwestern Minnesota. Weekly ground observations (acquired in 1980 and 1981) were analyzed in concert with large scale aerial photography and concurrent LANDSAT data. Using multidate supervised and unsupervised classification procedures, it was found that all crops grown in association with sunflowers in the study area are spectrally separable from one another. Under conditions of extreme drought, severely stressed plants were differentiable from those not severely stressed, but between-crop separation was not possible. Initial regression analyses to estimate sunflower seed yield showed a sensitivity to environmental stress during the flowering and seed development stages. One of the most important biological factors related to sunflower production in the Red River Valley area was found to be the extent and severity of insect infestations.

Lillesand, T.↗

Time-to-Passage Judgments in Nonconstant Optical Flow Fields

The time until an approaching object will pass an observer (time to passage, or TTP) is optically specified by a global flow field even in the absence of local expansion or size cues. Kaiser and Mowafy have demonstrated that observers are in fact sensitive to this global flow information. The present studies investigate two factors that are usually ignored in work related to TTP: (1) non-constant motion functions and (2) concomitant eye rotation. Non-constant velocities violate an assumption of some TTP derivations, and eye rotations may complicate heading extraction. Such factors have practical significance, for example, in the case of a pilot accelerating an aircraft or executing a roll. In our studies, a flow field of constant-sized stars was presented monocularly on a large screen. TIP judgments had to be made on the basis of one target star. The flow field varied in its acceleration pattern and its roll component. Observers did not appear to utilize acceleration information. In particular, TTP with decelerating motion were consistently underestimated. TTP judgments were fairly robust with respect to roll, even when roll axis and track vector were decoupled. However, substantial decoupling between heading and track vector led to a decrement in performance, in both the presence and the absence of roll.

Kaiser, Mary K.↗

Burst Detector Sensitivity: Past, Present and Future

I compare the burst detection sensitivity of CGRO's BATSE, Swift's BAT, the GLAST Burst Monitor (GBM) and EXIST as a function of a burst s spectrum and duration. A detector's overall burst sensitivity depends on its energy sensitivity and set of accumulations times (Delta)t; these two factors shape the detected burst population. For example, relative to BATSE, the BAT s softer energy band decreases the detection rate of short, hard bursts, while the BAT s longer accumulation times increase the detection rate of long, soft bursts. Consequently, Swift is detecting long, low fluence bursts (2-3 x fainter than BATSE).

Band, David L.↗

Secondary Inorganic Aerosol Chemistry and Its Impact on Atmospheric Visibility Over an Ammonia-Rich Urban Area in Central Taiwan

This study investigated the hourly inorganic aerosol chemistry and its impact on atmospheric visibility over an urban area in Central Taiwan, by relying on measurements of aerosol light extinction, inorganic gases, and PM 2.5 water-soluble ions (WSIs), and simulations from a thermodynamic equilibrium model. On average, the sulfate (SO 4 2− ), nitrate (NO 3 − ), and ammonium (NH 4 + ) components (SNA) contributed ∼90% of WSI concentrations, which in turn made up about 50% of the PM 2.5 mass. During the entire observation period, PM 2.5 and SNA concentrations, aerosol pH, aerosol liquid water content (ALWC), and sulfur and nitrogen conversion ratios all increased with decreasing visibility. In particular, the NO 3 − contribution to PM 2.5 increased, whereas the SO 4 2− contribution decreased, with decreasing visibility. The diurnal variations of the above parameters indicate that the interaction and likely mutual promotion between NO 3 − and ALWC enhanced the hygroscopicity and aqueous-phase reactions conducive for NO 3 − formation, thus led to severely impaired visibility. The high relative humidity (RH) at the study area (average 70.7%) was a necessary but not sole factor leading to enhanced NO 3 − formation, which was more directly associated with elevated ALWC and aerosol pH. Simulations from the thermodynamic model depict that the inorganic aerosol system in the study area was characterized by fully neutralized SO 4 2− (i.e. a saturated factor in visibility reduction) and excess NH 4 + amidst a NH 3 -rich environment. As a result, PM 2.5 composition was most sensitive to gas-phase HNO 3 , and hence NOx, and relatively insensitive to NH 3 . Consequently, a reduction of NOx would result in instantaneous cuts of NO 3 − , PM 2.5 , and ALWC, and hence improved visibility. On the other hand, a substantial amount of NH 3 reduction (>70%) would be required to lower the aerosol pH, driving more than 50% of the particulate phase NO 3 − to the gas phase, thereby making NH 3 a limiting factor in shifting PM 2.5 composition.

aerosol chemistry↗

How Do Various Maize Crop Models Vary in Their Responses to Climate Change Factors?

Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(sup 1) per degC. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

carbon dioxide↗

Solar surface albedo estimation using remotely sensed spectral data

A solar albedo model based on converting narrow-band satellite-derived reflectance to four major spectral regions (ultraviolet, visible, near-infrared, and shortwave middle-infrared) and weighted by the relative supply of global solar radiation is studied and developed. Narrow-band to broad-band conversions within visible and near-infrared regions are shown to be accurate; however, the transformations are indicated to be surface-feature dependent. Atmospheric aerosol and illumination effects are indicated to be nearly insensitive to spectral region integrations for solar albedo estimation, but are shown to be significant factors affecting the spectral and canopy albedo. The erectophile and spherical canopy albedos were sensitive to atmospheric and illumination condition, whereas the planophile was relatively insensitive. The contribution of a shortwave middle-infrared reflectance to the canopy albedo is shown to be an important component, accounting for albedo changes to 16 percent with increasing vegetation.

Toll, David L.↗