Reliability analysis of complex systems using subset simulations with Hamiltonian Neural Networks
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Introducing following HRA topics to visitors from Naval Nuclear Labs. - Dynamic HRA Method and Software (LWRS) - HRA Data Collection (LWRS) - HRA Consultation (KINS) - HRA for Advanced Nuclear Reactors (Hobby) - HRA for Non-Nuclear Industries (BEES)
Reliable and reproducible analysis of surfaces is critically dependent on how samples have been collected, handled, and prepared before analysis. Although there are important, well-established general guidelines to minimize unintended alteration of the surfaces to be analyzed, specific handling steps depend on the nature of the samples and information desired. Assessments of the validity and reliability of the results require adequate information about sampling, handling, and processing. ISO standard 20579 part 1 describes the information to be recorded and reported for samples that are prepared or submitted for surface analysis. This paper summarizes elements of the standard, which includes annexes that justify and inform the sample handling processes. Also included is a checklist of information that needs to be recorded and reported and an appendix containing an example of a form that might be used to report the information.
Reliable radiographic methods for characterizing nuclear waste packages non-destructively (without the need to open containers) have the potential to significantly contribute to safe handling and future disposal options, particularly for legacy waste of unknown content. Due to required shielding of waste containers and the need to characterize materials consisting of light elements, X-ray methods are not suitable. Here, energy-resolved MeV neutron radiography is demonstrated as a first-of-its-kind application for non-destructive and remote examination of mock up nuclear waste packages from a safe position using time-of-flight techniques enabled by a novel event-mode imaging detector system. Energy-resolved neutron transmission spectra were measured spatially, permitting the detection of analogue materials to actual nuclear waste such as water, melamine, and ion exchange resin within a 2.54 cm wall thickness steel pipe. The results demonstrate the capability to locate the materials through this wall thickness by radiography and tomographic reconstruction, revealing detailed 3D distributions and structural anomalies. The method effectively detects residual water in ion exchange resin, highlighting its sensitivity to moisture content, a crucial parameter for nuclear waste characterization. Monte Carlo simulations are in agreement with the experimental findings, providing a pathway to simulate waste forms more difficult to tackle experimentally. This work paves the way to apply sub-nanosecond intense MeV neutron sources, such as laser-driven neutron sources under development, to nuclear waste characterization.
This study critically evaluates human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies applicable to regulatory probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model, with a particular focus on their role in supporting the significance determination process (SDP) in nuclear safety assessment. Firstly, three widely utilized HRA methods – IDHEAS-ECA, SPAR-H, and ASEP/THERP – were qualitatively and quantitatively assessed. Qualitative assessments were conducted using attributes from the NEA/CSNI/R(2015)1 report, while quantitative evaluations employed regression and correlation analyses to compare predicted human error probabilities (HEPs) against empirical data. Results reveal distinct strengths, for example, IDHEAS-ECA’s robust predictive accuracy and K-HRA’s alignment with operational practices. In addition, dependency analysis and recovery analysis were critically evaluated. For dependency analysis, the methods’ handling of inter-task dependencies and their impact on HEPs were examined, while recovery analysis highlighted strategies for mitigating failure events. Furthermore, strategies were proposed to evaluate performance-shaping factors under conditions of reduced human performance, such as stress, fatigue, or cognitive overload, addressing specific challenges faced in SDP evaluations. Human errors from KINS’s operational performance information system event reports were evaluated as a case study. This study identifies gaps and provides actionable insights to ensure their validity and applicability in SDP HRA applications. This paper is a part of research conducted by KINS, and it should be noted that this result does not represent the regulatory position of KINS.
In this paper, we propose a method to perform empirical analysis of the loss landscape of machine learning (ML) models. The method is applied to two ML models for scientific sensing, which necessitates quantization to be deployed and are subject to noise and perturbations due to experimental conditions. Our method allows assessing the robustness of ML models to such effects as a function of quantization precision and under different regularization techniques -- two crucial concerns that remained underexplored so far. By investigating the interplay between performance, efficiency, and robustness by means of loss landscape analysis, we both established a strong correlation between gently-shaped landscapes and robustness to input and weight perturbations and observed other intriguing and non-obvious phenomena. Our method allows a systematic exploration of such trade-offs a priori, i.e., without training and testing multiple models, leading to more efficient development workflows. This work also highlights the importance of incorporating robustness into the Pareto optimization of ML models, enabling more reliable and adaptive scientific sensing systems.
This report documents activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2024 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, Digital Instrumentation and Control (DI&C) Risk Assessment project. The goal of the RISA Pathway is to optimize safety margins and minimize uncertainties to achieve economic efficiencies while maintaining high levels of safety. This is accomplished by providing scientific basis to better represent safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety, and by developing new technologies that reduce operating costs. The research efforts for FY 2024 encompass methodology refinement and exploration. The efforts include: (1) The implementation of a natural language processing tool to expedite key aspects of the reliability analysis methods developed by INL; (2) advances to support intersystem CCF analysis by providing guidance for and identification of coupling mechanisms that may contribute to CCF; (3) the investigation of how generative artificial intelligence tools can aid in hazard analysis and diversity and defense in depth (i.e., D3) assessments; (4) Industry collaboration, allowing the demonstration of and INL's risk assessment tools to support risk assessment of DI&C systems at early and late stages of development; (4) a roadmap for the development of a software for each of INL's risk assessment tools; (5) The development of a theory and methodology manual for a risk quantification methodology; (6) the development of a reliability analysis for machine learning (ML)-integrated control systems.
Motivation Multiple deep learning model architectures can be used to segment bacterial membranes in cryoEM images. However, an AI-based tool advancement is often presented with only a single segmentation model for broad use, and this single model may show inconsistent results across datasets from different users. Here, we present the Top Model Decision Tree, a model screening framework to screen for the best model to generate bacterial inner and outer membrane masks based on user priorities. We use pre-trained segmentation models from YOLOv11, YOLO26, U-Net, Detectron2 and SAM3 fine-tuned on bacterial inner and outer membranes imaged with cryoEM. Run the Framework This notebook must be opened in Google Colab. Mount Google Drive and run with a GPU-based runtime. Open the notebook and follow steps to git clone in folders and files within this repository. There will be a repeating top_model_decision_tree.ipynb (notebook clone) that will not be used. Save your .png binary mask files and .csv table outputs within your Google Drive or download before closing the notebook. The models and all analysis/training scripts are available at [GitHub: https://github.com/Lynnicia/CryoEM_membranes_top_model_decision_tree and https://github.com/Sireesiru/Semantic-Segmentation-of-bacterial-cell-envelope-using-U-Nets.
The Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) is a software system to simulate human performance in support of human reliability analysis (HRA) in nuclear power plants. This paper summarizes recent work to integrate HUNTER with a plant simulator, namely the Rancor Microworld Simulator. Rancor is an offshoot of earlier work at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to support plant modernization. The graphical software tools used to mimic digital human-system interface upgrades at INL’s Human Systems Simulation Laboratory were linked to the Rancor Microworld Simulator, an INL-developed simplified plant model. HUNTER becomes a “virtual operator” coupled to the Rancor simulator, thereby allowing a tight coupling between a digital human twin and a digital twin of the plant. Rancor-HUNTER may be run through Monte Carlo iterations across a dynamic range of performance shaping factors, thereby producing distributions of human performance in terms of procedure paths, errors instantiations, and task durations. This paper overviews the various unique features of Rancor-HUNTER and presents an example run of Rancor-HUNTER for a startup scenario.
As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.
Here, this paper introduces srlife, a tool for estimating the structural service life of concentrating solar power (CSP) receivers operating at high temperatures. Supporting both metallic and ceramic receiver designs, srlife is available as open-source software at https://github.com/applied-material-modeling/srlife and can be installed via the PyPi package manager (https://pypi.org). Given basic receiver geometry and incident heat flux, the tool performs thermohydraulic and structural analysis and estimates the life of a receiver. Designed for easy integration into a software stack, including solar field and levelized cost analysis, the tool can be utilized for optimizing receiver designs to meet service life and economic targets. This paper is Part I in a two-part series. Part I discusses the analysis process used to estimate the life of metallic receivers, along with a description of the required input data. Additionally, several heuristics applied within srlife can reduce analysis time significantly while maintaining accurate life estimations for metallic receivers when compared to full analyses. Several examples demonstrating the utility of srlife in receiver design are also discussed. Part II focuses on the life estimation of ceramic receivers, using time-dependent reliability analysis and various ceramic failure models implemented in srlife.
The purpose of this document is to perform a single-failure analysis through the use of a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) for the Safety Related components of the MARVEL Instrumentation and Control (I&C) System. The intent is that this document will meet the requirements for a single-failure analysis described in IEEE-379, “IEEE Standard for Application of the Single-Failure Criterion to Nuclear Power Generating Station Safety Systems”, to verify that this design does indeed meet the single failure criterion. Principles of IEEE-352, “IEEE Guide for General Principles of Reliability Analysis of Nuclear Power Generating Station Safety Systems” are followed to ensure the analysis is consistent with industry standards.
The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will provide unprecedented information about the large-scale structure of our Universe. In this work, we study the robustness of the theoretical modelling of the power spectrum of F OLPS , a novel effective field theory-based package for evaluating the redshift space power spectrum in the presence of massive neutrinos. We perform this validation by fitting the AbacusSummit high-accuracy N -body simulations for Luminous Red Galaxies, Emission Line Galaxies and Quasar tracers, calibrated to describe DESI observations. We quantify the potential systematic error budget of F OLPS finding that the modelling errors are fully sub-dominant for the DESI statistical precision within the studied range of scales. Additionally, we study two complementary approaches to fit and analyse the power spectrum data, one based on direct Full-Modelling fits and the other on the ShapeFit compression variables, both resulting in very good agreement in precision and accuracy. In each of these approaches, we study a set of potential systematic errors induced by several assumptions, such as the choice of template cosmology, the effect of prior choice in the nuisance parameters of the model, or the range of scales used in the analysis. Furthermore, we show how opening up the parameter space beyond the vanilla ΛCDM model affects the DESI observables. These studies include the addition of massive neutrinos, spatial curvature, and dark energy equation of state. We also examine how relaxing the usual Cosmic Microwave Background and Big Bang Nucleosynthesis priors on the primordial spectral index and the baryonic matter abundance, respectively, impacts the inference on the rest of the parameters of interest. This paper pathways towards performing a robust and reliable analysis of the shape of the power spectrum of DESI galaxy and quasar clustering using F OLPS .
Electric Vehicles (EVs) adoption rate has been steadily increasing in the US leading to a growing number of charging stations including faster DC (Direct Current) chargers and slower Level 1 and Level 2 AC (Alternating Current) chargers. This increase in demand for electricity is further exacerbated by recent developments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology, advanced manufacturing, and digitization. These factors will require electric utilities to upgrade their infrastructure to keep up with the increasing electrical demand (especially during peak hours). An easy way to counteract the need for these upgrades is to shift a major chunk of active charge sessions (durations where there is energy transfer from charger to EV's propulsion battery) to off-peak hours thereby flattening the load curve and making the infrastructure more resilient. This concept is known as Smart Charge Management (SCM). EV owners also benefit from SCM since it lowers their charging costs and consequently their transportation costs by prioritizing charging during off-peak hours. SCM takes advantage of EV's capability to act as a controllable load or DER (Distributed Energy Resource). This report summarizes the reliability analysis performed on the communication required for two of these SCM use-cases. This analysis only focuses on SCM strategies for unidirectional charging (energy transfer from EVSE to EV or V1G) and not bidirectional charging.
The reliability of semiconductor switches in single-stage differential-mode solid-state transformers (DM-SSTs) has not been systematically evaluated under soft-switching operation and realistic grid conditions. This paper presents a switch-level reliability analysis for soft-switched and hard-switched DM-SST configurations by integrating converter-specific power loss modeling with empirical lifetime prediction. Analytical derivation of device current profiles specific to the DM-SST is used to characterize electrothermal stress, which is then mapped to lifetime using degradation models obtained from power cycling tests (PCTs). Applied to realistic SST load profiles and grid voltage variations, this approach provides a probabilistic prediction of switch lifetime for the DM-SST. Lifetime estimates for both SiC MOSFETs and Si IGBTs are presented, offering insight into device degradation under converter operating conditions. The results quantify the reliability benefits of soft switching in single-stage SSTs, highlighting how switching dynamics influence long-term switch degradation.